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					       A Data Approach to Highway Safety:
          What Do the Numbers Tell Us?

                GHSA Annual Meeting
       September 20, 2003  Oklahoma City, OK
                Susan Ferguson Ph.D




IIHS
       Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS)


         Nonprofit research and communications organization
          founded in 1959
         IIHS mission to save lives, prevent injuries, and reduce
          property damage in crashes
         Research goal to determine what works and what
          doesn’t to improve highway safety
         Funded entirely by automobile insurance companies


IIHS
       Ability to translate research findings into
       practice is critical in reducing losses


          Need strong communications component
          Get research findings out to wide audience in
           non- technical language
          Providing consumers with relevant and timely
           safety information
          Serve on research and policy committees


IIHS
       Haddon matrix


                               Vehicles &
                       Human                environment
                               equipment

          Pre-crash

          Crash

          Post-crash

          Losses



IIHS
       GHSA and IIHS share common goals


         IIHS’s mission is to save lives, prevent injuries, and reduce
           property damage in crashes
         GHSA’s mission is to provide leadership in the development of
           national policy to ensure effective highway safety programs
         We provide the research to help you do your job
         Worked successfully together on a number of issues
           including, airbag safety, speed, cell phones, occupant
           restraint use



IIHS
       Trends in driver death rates




IIHS
       Driver death rates per million registered vehicles
       By vehicle age and calendar year

          210
                                vehicles >1 year old
                                1-3-year-old vehicles
          190


          170


          150


          130


          110


           90


           70
                1985      90              95            2000
IIHS                                    year
       Driver death rates per million registered vehicles
       By vehicle age and calendar year

          210
                                vehicles >1 year old
                                1-3-year-old vehicles
          190


          170


          150


          130


          110


           90


           70
                1985      90              95            2000
IIHS                                    year
       Driver death rates per registered vehicle
       Actual
          220


          200


          180


          160


          140


          120


          100


           80
                1985   90         95        2000
IIHS                              year
       Driver death rates per registered vehicle
       Actual vs. hypothetical 1985 fleet
          220

                                        actual
          200
                                        hypothetical

          180


          160


          140


          120


          100


           80
                1985       90               95         2000
IIHS                                    year
       Driver behavior priority areas



          Alcohol-impaired driving
          Belt use
          Speeding
          Motorcycle riders
          Driver distraction



IIHS
       Alcohol-impaired driving




IIHS
       Percent of fatally injured passenger vehicle drivers
       with BACs at or above 0.08 percent
       1982-2005
          50




          40




          30




          20




          10




          0
               1982   85   90      95       2000     05
IIHS
       Three goals




          Deter potential offenders
          Catch those who offend
          Sanction those you catch




IIHS
       Assessment of checkpoint effectiveness
       Centers for Disease Control, 2002



                                             median decrease
                                 number of
                                             in alcohol-related
                                  studies
                                                  crashes


           random breath test
                                    12             18%
              checkpoints


                sobriety
                                    11             20%
              checkpoints




IIHS
       Traditional sobriety checkpoints




IIHS
       Low manpower checkpoint in Greenbrier County




IIHS
       Percent of drivers with BACs > 0.05 percent
       Weekend nights, spring 2003 and 2004
         3


        2.5


         2


        1.5


         1


        0.5


         0
                 Before    During        Before   During
                  Study counties        Comparison counties
IIHS
       MADD International Technology Symposium

         MADD will work with states to increase use of breath
          alcohol ignition devices for convicted DWI offenders
         Blue Ribbon Panel for Development of Advanced Alcohol
          Detection Technology
           – cooperative research spearheaded by MADD, Alliance
             of Automobile Manufacturers, IIHS, and NHTSA to
             develop advanced alcohol detection system
           – IIHS to chair
         Build public support for vehicle-based approach


IIHS
       Safety belt use




IIHS
        Driver belt use in United States
       100

        90

        80
       80%

        70

       60%
        60

        50

        40
       40%

        30

        20
       20%

        10

         0
             1981 83   84   86   88   90   91   94   96     98   99 2000 01   02   03   04   05
                                                     year
IIHS
       Percent belt use reported by states, 2005

       50-54       NH*
                                                                                         primary
       55-59
                                                                                         secondary
                                                                                         no law
       60-64       MS


       65-69       AR, KS, KY, MA, SD


       70-74       FL, WI, WY**          SC. TN


       75-79       AK, CO, ID, ME, MO, NE, ND, OH, RI                          LA


       80-84       MN, MT, PA, VA               AL, CT, DE, IN, OK


       85-89       UT, VT, WV            DC, IL, IA, NJ, NY, NC


       90-95       AZ, NV         CA, GA, HI, MD, MI, NM, OR, TX, WA


               0         1   2       3      4       5     6       7    8   9        10   11   12     13   14
                                                        number of states
IIHS   *estimated rates from 2003
       **2004 data
       What works to increase belt use



          Strong laws and publicized enforcement
          Equipping vehicles with belt reminder systems




IIHS
       Belt reminder systems



          Intermittent flashing lights and sometimes chimes for
           extended period to prompt unbelted drivers
          About 85% of 2006 models have some kind of belt
           reminder system
          Ford system increased driver belt use from 71% to 76%;
           Honda system from 84% to 90%




IIHS
       Speed matters




IIHS
       About one-third of all fatalities occur in
       speeding-related crashes




IIHS
       Relation of speed to crashes and crash severity



          Increases in speed are associated with increases
           in crashes; reductions in speed are associated
           with reductions in crashes
          The risk of being injured or killed in a crash
           increases with increasing speed




IIHS
       Enforcement is key




IIHS
       Speed cameras are effective but underutilized




          Proven countermeasure against speed violations
           and crashes
          Widely used throughout the world

IIHS
       Evaluation of speed cameras in Washington, D.C.
       Percent change at camera sites relative to control 6 months
       after enforcement
                                        proportion exceeding
                    average speed      speed limit by 11+ mph
           0%

          -10%

          -20%

          -30%

          -40%

          -50%

          -60%

          -70%

          -80%

          -90%
IIHS
       Effects of speed cameras on speeds and crashes
       Cochrane review, 2006




         Effects on speed
          Reductions of 50-65% in the proportion of speeding
            vehicles traveling 15km/h or more above the speed limit

         Effects on crashes
          Reductions in injury crashes from 8–46%;
            40–45% for serious and fatal crashes



IIHS
       Conclusions



         Speed is an important factor in crash likelihood, as
          well as risk of injury and death
         Strong enforcement is key
         Automated speed enforcement is the way forward
          and needs to be used more widely in the U.S.




IIHS
       Motorcycles




IIHS
        Motorcyclist deaths
        By age, 1975-2005
       4,000



                                      < 29 years old
       3,000                          30-39 years old
                                      > 40 years old



       2,000




       1,000




          0
          1975     80       85   90     95              2000   05

IIHS
       Helmet use laws in U.S. states
       January 1997 compared with March 2005


            WA                  MT             ND                                                                  NH
                                                                                                             VT
                                                              MN
                                                                                                                             ME
                                               SD                       WI
            OR
                      ID             WY                                                                       NY
                                                                                    MI
                                                               IA                                                                  MA
                                                NE
                                                                                                        PA
                                                                         IL    IN        OH
                                                                                                                        NJ         RI
                 NV
                           UT             CO                                                                                      CT
                                                    KS             MO                         WV                         DE
                                                                                    KY              VA
            CA                                                                                                          MD
                                                         OK                   TN                   NC               DC
                           AZ         NM                           AR
                                                                                              SC
                                                                        MS    AL
                                                                   LA                GA
                                                    TX




                           AK                                                                 FL
                                                                                                                    universal law
                                                                                                                    no law or
                                                                                                                    limited law
                                                                               HI


IIHS
       States with universal helmet laws
       55

       50

       45                                  1976: Highway Safety Act removed
                                             authority to withhold funds from
       40
                                                   states without helmet laws
       35
                                                  1991: Incentive grants for              1995: Grants removed
       30                                         helmet and safety belt laws
       25

       20

       15

       10

        5

        0
            1966 68   70   72    74   76    78   80   82   84   86   88    90   92   94    96   98   00   02     04

        1967: Helmet laws
        required for states to
        qualify for federal
IIHS    highway funds
       Observed motorcycle helmet use in U.S. (percent)
       NHTSA
                                                  DOT-compliant
         100
                                                  non-compliant
                                                  any helmet
          80


          60


          40


          20


           0
               1994   1996   1998   2000   2002   2004    2005
IIHS
       Motorcycle helmet laws


          Helmet use is virtually 100% in states with universal
           laws versus about 50% in other states
          Motorcyclist deaths and injuries decline when helmet
           use is mandated and increase after laws are
           weakened or repealed
          In Florida motorcyclist deaths per crash increased 25
           percent after the law was weakened in 2000



IIHS
       Driver distractions




IIHS
       What is driver distraction?

          "A grave problem that developed in New Hampshire…
          now has all the motor-vehicle commissioners of the
          eastern states in a wax. It's whether radios should be
          allowed on cars. Some states don't want to permit them
          at all - say they distract the driver and disturb the
          peace…The commissioner (of Massachusetts) thinks the
          things should be shut off while you are driving…The
          whole problem is getting very complex, but the upshot is
          that you'll probably be allowed to take your radio
          anywhere, with possibly some restriction on the times
          when you can play it."
           (Nicholas Trott in 1930 as cited by Goodman et al., 1997)


IIHS
       If you build it they will come




IIHS
       Vehicles have built-in hands
       free technology, like OnStar,
        with voice activation. Other     OnStar

       wireless technologies, such
         as Bluetooth, eliminate the
        need for wired connections
           between cell phones and
          other electronic products
                   and accessories.


                                       Bluetooth


IIHS
                  Other potentially
             distracting in-vehicle   navigation system
       technologies and gadgets
       are increasingly available.




                                      navigation system

IIHS
       Automotive News, May 1, 2006




IIHS
       The mobile lifestyle is alive and well




IIHS
       Percent of drivers observed talking on
       hand-held phones, 2000-2005
       NHTSA
         7

         6

         5

         4

         3

         2

         1

         0
               2000     2002       2004         2005

IIHS
         Making it easier to use-
       will it lead to less distraction?




IIHS
       Is injury crash risk associated with phone use?
       IIHS study in Western Australia, 2005



           Phone use associated with fourfold increase in risk of
             injury crash
           Increased risk similar for hands-free and hand-held
             phones
           Increased risk similar for males and females, for drivers
             30+ and younger than 30




IIHS
       Can you legislate the problem away?




IIHS
       Cell phone bans   statewide hand-held ban
                         teenage drivers
       September 2006    school bus drivers
                         by local jurisdiction




IIHS
                                           last updated: 9-15-06
       Percentage of drivers using hand-held cell
       phones before and after New York law
       Connecticut and New York
       3.5

               before law        Law implemented Nov. 2001
        3
               3 months after
               15 months after
       2.5


        2


       1.5


        1


       0.5


        0
                     New York                      Connecticut

IIHS
       Percentage of drivers using hand-held phones
       Washington, D.C., metro area

           10
                                                 March 2004
                                                 October 2004
            8
                                                 October 2005


            6



            4



            2



            0
                    D.C.              Maryland   Virginia


IIHS
       Don’t look to laws to solve the problem

          Effects of hand-held phone bans on crashes unknown
          Both hands-free and hand-held phones increase
           crash risk
          May be potential benefits from hand-held phone bans if
           drivers who don’t switch to hands-free use phone less
           or not at all
          Unclear how to enforce ban on hands-free phone use
          Use of hands-free phones likely to increase with
           availability of Bluetooth technology

IIHS
       In-vehicle cell phones
       The next generation




IIHS
       The Way Forward


         More progress in the last decade in vehicle
          crashworthiness than in changing driver behavior
         Large gains in seat belt use in recent years, but higher
          use rates would save many additional lives
         Alcohol-impaired driving and speeding should be top
          priorities for enacting stronger laws and enforcement
         Motorcycle ridership and deaths are up, especially
          among baby boomers, but progress could be made
          with universal helmet laws in every state

IIHS
       For more information:



                  www.iihs.org




IIHS

				
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