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									  International movements of populations:
    Understanding clandestine migration
phenomenon through the sub-Saharan Africa
         developing countries case

             by Félicien Donat ACCROMBESSY
                       Senior Statistician
               National Agency For Employment
        01 PO BOX 323 Cotonou – BENIN (West Africa)
• Statement of the world population growth and its
  characteristics: link between the increase of the population
  of developing countries and the migration movements,

• Plus, the majority of this population candidate to
  clandestine immigration is issued from countries
  encountering the following problems: instability, civil war,
  repression and lack of democracy or human rights at
  political level; high rate of poverty in different forms such
  low incomes, high level of unemployment, lack of basic
  social needs, low house living standards,

The aim of the study: Measure the impact of immigration on
  both developed and developing countries,
• The first sample is constituted of candidates to
  immigration whatever the reason (educational, family,
  employment …) and candidates to European Schengen
  visa obtention and the second is constituted of restricted
  group of experts: researchers, sociologists, specialists in
  politics, diplomats, etc,

• The profile of the immigrant also has changed; it is wrong
  to think that the immigrant is just a delinquent, As showed
  by several studies, the research portrayed young
  immigrants with high educational qualification who are
  looking for jobs, wellbeing, freedom, etc, (80%),

• The survey related to the group of experts shows that it is
  important to have a different and more realistic approach
  about the problem of clandestine immigration,
I World population growth, economic development and
international migrations
1,1 World population growth and its distribution

•    The twentieth century has witnessed extraordinary
    population growth, During this century, world population
    increased from 1,65 billion to 6 billion, and experienced
    both the highest rate of population growth (averaging 2,04
    per cent per year) during the late 60’s, and the largest
    annual increment to world population (86 million persons
    each year) in the late 80’s,

• Nonetheless, world population will continue to increase
  substantially during the twenty-first century, United
  Nations projections (medium fertility scenario) indicate
  that world population will nearly stabilize at just above 10
  billion persons after 2200
    ,1 World population growth and its distribution

• By 2050: nearly 2 billion older persons, comprising 22 per
  cent of the world population,

• The population of labour force age is expected to grow
  steadily; its proportion of the total, to stay approximately
  the same, Finally, the elderly population is projected to
  grow considerably in both absolute and relative terms,

• Over the next 50 years, Sub-Saharan Africa will become the
  primary source of global population increase: countries
  such as Nigeria, Congo (Kinshasa), Madagascar, and
  Uganda, Ethiopia are likely to rise quickly in the rankings
  of the largest contributors to population growth in the
1,2 Economic development and international migrations
     II The phenomenon of clandestine immigration

Clandestine       immigration    concerns,     the
inhabitants of poor countries looking for good
standard of life in rich ones and political
unacknowledged immigrants in the destination
country,      For   that    reason,    clandestine
immigration is illegal: the clandestine frequently
takes important and perilous risks in order to
rejoin a country presenting better conditions of
life for him,
2,1 The routes
of clandestine
move to Europe
or die, the routes
of uncertainty

                     •   Source: Radio France International, april 2006
           2,2 The others networks of clandestine immigration: from
           apparent legality to clandestine
Table 1: Contribution of asylum request to irregular immigration in France from 1999 to 2005

               First time requests to asylum         Recognitions          Difference (estimation    Moving away performed
               (including terrestrial asylum     (including terrestrial       of the number of             (except for        Difference
                     from 1999 to 2003)                asylum)                    nonsuited)             readmissions)         (3) – (4)
                             (1)                          (2)                   (1) – (2) = (3)                (4)

   1999                         37,891 (6,984)               4,879 (383)                    33,012                    7,821        25,191

   2000                       50,562 (11,815)                4,958 (286)                    45,604                    9,230        36,374

   2001                       64,563 (17,272)                6,300 (181)                    58,263                    8,604        49,659

   2002                       73,875 (22,788)                 7,443 (89)                    66,432                   10,067        56,365

   2003                       79,945 (27,741)                8,285 (111)                    71,660                   11,692        59,968

   2004                                50,547                    10,088                     40,459                   15,560        24,799

   2005                                42,541                    11,531                     31,010                   19,849        11,161

   Total                              399,924                    53,484                    364,440                   89,923       263,517
   3 Causes and consequences of clandestine immigration

  3.1 Causes of clandestine immigration
  The role of immediate environment: from demographic growth to misery, the route

• Africa encounters a fast natural population growth (3%
  against 1.7 % for the entire world)
• According to estimations, the population of Africa will grow
  from 1.3 billion inhabitants in 2025 to 1.76 billion in 2050
• multidimensional poverty is spreading in the continent. The
  link between immigration and the economic situation of
  Africa seems to higher. A comparison between per capita
  GNP of developed countries and developing world reveals a
  great gap. The high level of unemployment rate in the
  continent is revealing: more than 15%, this rate is increasing
  in urban areas (25-30%).
• The unemployed population profile also has changed: youth
  and educated, living in urban areas, etc.
• The most important part of the world wealth is
  concentrated by a few groups of firms. In the same
  time, most of the developing countries, especially,
  Africa’s Sub-Saharan countries seem being to the gap of
  the world trade, to be marginalized
• According to HDR (2000), 1/5 of the world population
    86% of the word GDP against scarcely 1% for majority of
    68% of the direct foreign investments against scarcely 1% for
     the poor;
    74% of the world telephone lines, the most elementary
     communication tool nowadays, against 1.5% for the most
Figure 6: Map of conflicts and wars in
the 90’s in Africa

                                         Source: Map edited by ‘Le monde diplomatique’
Map of democratic process in Africa
    3.2 Consequences of clandestine immigration
  Consequences of clandestine immigration for the country of departure: the clandestines are the
  first victims of the clandestine immigration

• Several cases of death during their trip
• Survived clandestines are obliged to do anything to rebuild a
  financial health: irregular work, delinquency, etc.
• They are overexploited, bad treated, under remunerated.
• In Algeria for example, the yearly figure of people arrested
  surpass a mean of 5,000 every year. Indeed, from 1992 to 2003,
  close to 28 828 clandestine immigrants were arrested in different
  points of control of the services of the national state police
  force. The illegal activities practiced vary from drug to
  falsification and counterfeiting of travel documents and bank
  tickets, prostitution and the association of malefactors.
  Consequently the propagation of illnesses such AIDS is
 Consequences of clandestine immigration for the country of destination: increase
 of imported delinquency and the escape of capital

• Several specialists of developed countries think that there is a
  global link between delinquency and immigration
• Therefore, the basic arguments in favor of this thesis of "criminal
  immigrant" is the rise of the involvement of the strangers to the
  crimes and registered offenses and, notably, their over
  representation in prison in most of the european countries
• Italy, in 1998, the strangers represented 25.4% of convicts
• in Germany, in September 1997, they represented 33.6% of
• in France, on 1st january 995, they represented 29% of convicts
   4 Prevent and treat clandestine immigration: the need of partnership
                between developed and developing world
  4.1 Current initiatives of prevention: more security at the European borders

• Some European countries, including Spain and France,
  entered in consultation with Algeria to co- ordinate
  their security actions against clandestine immigration
  and in order to conclude some bilateral agreements of
• France has just adopted a new politic of immigration
  called by the name of its initiator Mr. Sarkokzy, himself
  descendant of immigrates, who attempted to expose it
  in Africa (Mali and Benin). This law has received a
  controversy welcome in the continent
 4.2 Concerted prevention politics and more human
      treatment of the clandestine immigration?

• The prevention of clandestine immigration must take
  into account its deep determining factors that are the
  extreme poverty, social exclusion and political
• develop the economy and the public infrastructures in
  the countries of emigration is indispensable; it should
  be integrated to the strategy of poverty fighting.
• The public aid to development must be increased and
  targeted toward clandestine sender countries
• institution of a State of rights, application of the
  elementary principles of good politic and economic
• The Senate, hence assesses indispensable that the
  politics of immigration should not be in the detriment
  of the countries of origin migrants, consistently to the
  official decision made at the 23rd Summit of Africa and
  of France chiefs of States, held in Bamako (Mali), on
  december, 3-4 2005.
• In fact, it is important to analyze the phenomenon of
  regional immigration in the countries of Maghreb and
  West Africa, the time actually uncertain, for immigrants
  to make transition toward Europe.
• Prevent and treat clandestine immigration, means also
  to have available and appropriate indicators; it also
  means to make reliable forecasts.
• Plus an alert level (CIAL, opposite table) indicator has
  been designed. Plus the above determining factors, this
  indicator takes into account the distance between a
  country and European Union borders, the presence of
  a colony of the immigrant in Europe, stability of the
  country, past link with Europe (colonization), etc. Each
  basic factor has been weighted according to a note
  given by the specialists. Finally the CIAL is defined
  from the lowest alert to the highest according to a
  calculation based on the method Linkert. Others
  methods are also in experimentation.
4,2 Concerted prevention politics and more human treatment of the clandestine immigration?
Tableau 2: Example of application of immigration alert for some African countries
                                               Clandestine Immigration Alert Level (CIAL)
Country                 very low         low                medium            High          very high
Burkina Faso
Dem Rep Congo
Conclusion and recommendations
• Clandestine immigration is a curse that mines the development of
  the sub-Saharan Africa and that having its foundations in the
  poverty, the social exclusion, the deficit of political liberty, the
  deficit of governance and the expansion of conflicts and wars on
  the whole continent.
• In the struggle against this phenomenon, the merely security
  approach and one-sided initiatives stay inefficient.
• Therefore, it is time for the countries concerned to consult
  themselves and adopt framework action plan they will discuss with
  their European partners. Plus, this important problem whose
  consequences go until depriving the immigrant of his human most
  elementary rights would deserve a worldwide summit and some
  appropriated resolutions at the United Nations. More
  fundamentally, the following recommendations are made for better
  delimit the question.
• The politic decision makers have to:
• - integrate the question of the clandestine immigration in the strategies of
  reduction of poverty;
• - elaborate common and harmonized policies as well at regional organizations
  (West African Economic and Monetary Union, South African Development
  and Economic Countries, ...) as to the level of the African union;
• - begin a straightforward discussion with the European Union and the
  organization of the United Nations;
• - Make a census of all the immigrants who wander in the transit countries and
  implement social programs of reinstatement in their origin countries;
• - setting up social and sanitary programs for clandestines who live in
  inhuman conditions before their return to home with the support of United
  Nation's specialized institutions;
• - Implement migration observatories and endow them of forecasting and alert
  instruments in order to follow efficiently irregular movements of population;
• - revisit the public aid to development and the politic relations between the
  north and the south, between the former colonizers and the former colonies;
• Finally, it urges for the countries of Africa and for those of Europe, to work
  together, to define an efficient strategy in order to fight this phenomenon
  menacing international security as well as the economic and social
  development of all the countries of the planet.

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