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ESSEX

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									                      YOU, ME
MEETING OF THE
                     AND RC28
  RESEARCH
COMMITTEE ON           WHERE IS
   SOCIAL              THE NEW
STRATIFICATION      GENERATION OF
 AND MOBILITY
                     RESEARCH ON
    OF THE
                        SOCIAL
INTERNATIONAL
 SOCIOLOGICAL       STRATIFICATION
  ASSOCIATION       AND MOBILITY?
UNIVERSITY OF
    ESSEX
APRIL 13-16, 2011     WOUT ULTEE
                        RADBOUD
                       UNIVERSITY
                        NIJMEGEN
                    THE NETHERLANDS
WHEN THIS OLDER PERSON MEETS RC28 NEWCOMERS,
THE COMPLIMENT OF NEWCOMERS OFTEN IS THAT ONE
  RECEIVES GOOD COMMENTS IN RC28


I HAVE THREE DISAPPOINTMENTS FOR YOU:


1. I AND OTHER OLDER RC28 MEMBERS MAY TELL YOU
   THAT YOUR RESEARCH QUESTION IS WRONG: LATER
   RC28 GENERATIONS ARGUED THAT EARLIER ONES
   POSED ISSUES POORLY
2. THE SHIFT WITHIN RC28 FROM STATUS ATTAINMENT
   MODELS TO CLASS ANALYSIS MARKED A NEW
   GENERATION, BUT WILL THE ISSUE OF MACRO VERSUS
   MICRO CLASSES LEAD TO A NEW GENERATION TOO?
3. HAVE RC28 UNIVERSITY SOCIOLOGISTS BEEN
   OVERTAKEN BY THINK TANK ECONOMISTS WHO RAISE
   INCOME MOBILITY QUESTIONS?
     MY
  CRITICAL
 LEARNING
 PERIOD IN
    RC28
SOCIOLOGY
 INCLUDED
THE COVER
 OF A NOW
  DEFUNCT
   BRITISH
  WEEKLY
  THE COVER STEMS FROM RIGHT
BEFORE THE 1980 PUBLICATION OF
  GOLDTHORPE, SOCIAL MOBILITY
AND CLASS STRUCTURE IN MODERN
 BRITAIN AND OF HALSEY, HEATH &
RIDGE, ORIGINS AND DESTINATIONS
 THESE STUDIES MARKED A NEW
  GENERATION OF RESEARCH IN
       SOCIAL MOBILITY
 NEW SOCIETY DID NOT NOTE THIS
    SHIFT FROM THE GLASS
GENERATION TO THE GOLDTHORPE
         GENERATION
   AS SOMEONE WHO HAS BEEN
AROUND IN RC28 FOR A LONGER TIME
I DISTINGUISH PAPERS ACCORDING TO
            GENERATIONS
    FROM TIME TO TIME THINGS
 HAPPENED IN RC28 THAT MARKED A
    BIG BREAK WITH THE PAST
  AND THESE MAIN EVENTS MADE
    RESEARCH OF THE OLDER
GENERATION NOT ONLY ANTIQUATED,
    BUT FIT FOR THE DUSTBIN
          THE EASY BUT SOMETIMES MISLEADING WAY
          OF RECOGNIZING GENERATIONS IN PAPERS IS
           LOOKING AT METHODS OF DATA ANALYSIS
                   THERE ARE A LOT OF METHODS,
          AND SOMETIMES A PERVASIVE SHIFT OCCURS
               FROM ONE METHOD TO ANOTHER:



FIRST GENERATION      PERCENTAGES            LIPSET 1956
SECOND GENERATION LINEAR REGRESSION          DUNCAN 1967
THIRD GENERATION      ODDS RATIO’S           GOLDTHORPE 1978
FOURTH GENERATION EVENT HISTORY MODELS       BLOSSFELD 1986
FIFTH GENERATION      ???                    ???
          FIFTH GENERATION
                   ???


FROM STANDARD LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS
  TO MULTI-LEVEL MODELS IS NO BIG THING
        FROM LOGLINEAR MODELS
  TO MULTI-LEVEL MULTI-NOMINAL LOGISTIC
   REGRESSION MODELS IS NO BIG THING
 HECKMAN CORRECTION FOR SELECTION BIAS
            IS NO BIG THING
IMPUTATION OF MISSING VALUES              IS
                NO BIG THING
  GENERATIONS ARE NOT
 MARKED BY NEW METHODS
   THE NEW GENERATION
  IMPLIES AND SOMETIMES
    ANNOUNCES LOUDLY
THAT RESEARCH QUESTIONS
 OF THE OLD GENERATION
 POSE THE ISSUE POORLY
 THE OLD GENERATION USED
METHODS THAT INCORPORATE
   HYPOTHESES THAT ARE
    PRECISELY AT ISSUE
LE MONDE IN 2007 SHOWED A RISE IN THE PERCENT
   OF DOWNWARDLY MOBILE FRENCH PERSONS


   WHY IS DOWNWARD MOBILITY INCREASING?
   THIS QUESTION POSES THE ISSUE POORLY


IT IS KNOWN THAT THE PERCENT OF PEOPLE WITH
    THE HIGHEST POSSIBLE ORIGIN IS GROWING
EVEN WHEN THE CHANCES OF PERSONS FROM THE
  HIGHEST LEVEL TO STAY AT THAT LEVEL RISE,
  THE PERCENT DOWNWARD MOBILITY MAY RISE


     DUNCAN DROPPED QUESTIONS ABOUT
          ‘DIFFERENCE SCORES’
   THE SECOND GENERATION ASKS AFTER THE
STRENGTH OF THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN ORIGIN
             AND DESTINATION
MOBILITY QUESTIONS ARE ALWAYS QUESTIONS ABOUT
  MOVEMENTS BETWEEN TWO STEPS ON A LADDER
   BUT THERE ARE A LOT OF STEPS ON A LADDER
SO THE QUESTION OF THE CHANCES OF MOVING FROM
 STEP 1 TO STEP 2 DIFFERS FROM THE QUESTION OF
  THE CHANCES OF MOVING FROM STEP 2 TO STEP 3
      WHEN COMPUTING LINEAR REGRESSION
COEFFICIENTS, IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE ASSOCIATION
  BETWEEN ALL ORIGINS AND ALL DESTINATIONS IS
                      UNIFORM
YET THERE MAY BE HYPOTHESES STATING THAT IT IS
 MORE DIFFICULT TO MOVE FROM STEP 1 TO STEP 2
          THAN FROM STEP 2 TO STEP 3
   THAT IS PART OF THE REASON WHY THE THIRD
  GENERATION COMPUTED A SET OF ODDS RATIO’S
    MOBILITY QUESTIONS ARE ALWAYS
QUESTIONS ABOUT MOVEMENTS OF PERSONS
      BETWEEN TWO POINTS IN TIME
   TO AVOID MISGUIDED QUESTIONS, THE
 DISTANCE BETWEEN THESE TWO POINTS IN
     TIME SHOULD BE EQUAL FOR ALL
         INVESTIGATED PERSONS


HOWEVER, THE STANDARD RESEARCH DESIGN
 OF OLDER GENERATIONS COLLECTS FOR A
    RANDOM SAMPLE OF A COUNTRY’S
              POPULATION
THEIR CLASS AT AGE 14 AND THEIR CLASS AT
        THE TIME OF THE SURVEY
 EVERY GENERATION RAISED THE QUESTION OF
    WHETHER SOCIAL MOBILITY IS STABLE
 THIS QUESTION CANNOT BE ANSWERED BY DATA
  FOR THE ORIGIN AT SOME FIXED AGE AND THE
CURRENT JOB OF THE MEMBERS OF ONE SOCIETY
             AT ONE POINT IN TIME


HOWEVER, SOME SAID THAT AT AROUND AGE 35,
    ‘OCCUPATIONAL MATURITY’ SETS IN
    IF THIS IS THE CASE, A COMPARISON OF
     COHORTS ABOVE 35 DOES THE TRICK
BUT THE MATURITY THESIS BEGS THE QUESTION:
  THE AGE OF MATURITY MAY VARY BETWEEN
                 COHORTS
   TO ANSWER QUESTIONS ABOUT
INCREASING OR DECREASING MOBILITY
    WITH DATA FROM ONE SURVEY
THE FOURTH GENERATION PROPOSED
 THE COLLECTION OF JOB HISTORIES
 FOR ALL MEMBERS OF A SOCIETY AT
      THE TIME OF THE SURVEY
DATA FOR OCCUPATIONAL TRJECTORIES
 ALLOW FOR ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS
  ABOUT AGE-, COHORT AND PERIOD
             EFFECTS
 THE FOURTH GENERATION DID NOT ADDRESS
 QUESTIONS ABOUT OCCUPATIONAL CAREERS
IT DID NOT CAME AROUND TO THE QUESTION OF
 WHETHER CAREERS ARE SELF-REINFORCING:
  IF A PERSON HAPPENS TO START OUT AT A
  HIGHER JOB AFTER LEAVING SCHOOL WITH
SPECIFIC CREDENTIALS, WILL THAT PERSON DO
  BETTER LATER ON JUST BECAUSE OF THIS
            HIGHER FIRST JOB?
  THAT QUESTION WAS ANSWERED BY THE
  ARROW FROM FIRST TO PRESENT JOB IN
DUNCAN’S SECOND-GENERATION PATH MODEL
   OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC LIFE CYCLE
       LIFE REMAINS MESSY IN RC28
  SO, AT RC28 MEETINGS I
LOOK OUT FOR NEWCOMERS
    WHO DECLARE THE
   QUESTIONS OF OLDER
  GENERATIONS WRONG
BUT IN THE COURSE OF TIME
I HAVE HEARD QUITE A FEW
    MEMBERS OF OLDER
  GENERATIONS SAY THAT
QUESTIONS OF NEWCOMERS
        ARE WRONG
  FROM THE EXEMPLAR OF
 FIRST GENERATION TO THE
  EXEMPLAR OF THE THIRD
       GENERATION
 RC28 RAISED QUESTIONS
    ABOUT MEN ONLY
   ARE THESE GAPS BEING
FILLED BY QUESTIONS ABOUT
         WOMEN?
   DO THESE QUESTIONS
 ELIMINATE THE ERRORS OF
   OLDER GENERATIONS?
   THE ISSUE OF WOMEN’S
   ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY


 IF QUESTIONS ABOUT THE NUMBER OF
  STEPS A MAN ROSE ARE MISGUIDED,
QUESTIONS ABOUT WIFE’S INCOME AS A
 PERCENT OF HUSBAND’S INCOME ARE
          MISGUIDED TOO


 THE 50-50 COUPLES ARE A MIXED BAG,
DEPENDING UPON THE AVERAGE INCOME
            OF THE COUPLE
IT IS WISE TO RAISE A STRING OF FOUR QUESTIONS

DO NOT JUMP ON THE TRAIN OF THE DEPENDENCY:

1. IS THE (HOURLY) INCOME OF A WIFE HIGHER, IF
HER HUSBAND HAS A HIGHER (HOURLY) INCOME?

2. DOES A WIFE’S INCOME NOT ONLY DEPEND UPON
    HET OWN EDUCATION, BUT ALSO UPON THE
         EDUCATION OF HER HUSBAND?

3. DOES A HUSBAND’S INCOME NOT ONLY DEPEND
UPON HIS OWN EDUCATION, BUT ALSO UPON THE
           EDUCATION OF HIS WIFE?

   4. IS THERE STILL A POSITIVE ASSOCIATION
BETWEEN WIFE’S AND HUSBAND’S INCOME AFTER
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT EDUCATIONAL HOMOGAMY
            AND PARTNER EFFECTS?
           THE ISSUE OF THE
      HOUSEHOLD DIVISION OF LABOUR
    QUESTIONS ABOUT THE TIME WOMEN SPEND ON
    HOUSEHOLD CHORES RELATIVE TO THE TIME THEIR
                 HUSBAND DOES SO
                    ARE MISGUIDED
THERE IS A 50-50 DIVISION OF LABOUR IF BOTH PARTNERS
   ARE SLUTTISH AND IF THEY HAVE A POLUTION PHOBIA
       THE PROPER SEQUENCE OF QUESTIONS:
1. ARE THE HOUSEHOLD HOURS OF HUSBANDS AND WIVES
                 POSITIVELY RELATED?
  2. TO WHAT EXTENT DOES OWN CLASS EXPLAIN THE
    HOUSEHOLD HOURS OF HUSBANDS AND OF WIVES?
  3. DOES THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN THE HOURS OF
    HUSBANDS AND WIVES PERSIST AFTER TAKING INTO
  ACCOUNT CLASS HOMOGAMY AND PARTNER EFFECTS?
 WHEN ESTIMATING MODELS ALSO STUDY INTERCEPTS!
THE FIRST GENERATION DID NOT SUCCEED IN APPLYING ITS
  OCCUPATIONAL PRESTIGE SCALES WHEN ANSWERING
                MOBILITY QUESTIONS
THE SECOND GENERATION DID SUCCEED IN THIS, LEADING
         TO STATUS ATTAINMENT RESEARCH
  THE THIRD GENERATION OBJECTED AGAINST PRESTIGE
GRADIENTS, SINCE INDUSTRIAL SOCIETIES WOULD CONSIST
      OF A LIMITED NUMBER OD DISCRETE CLASSES
  HOWEVER, UNLIKE MARXISANT SOCIOLOGY, THE THIRD
GENERATION DID NOT ASSERT THAT THE MIDDLE CLASSES
WERE DISAPPEARING, NOR THAT THE RELATIVE SIZE OF THE
       HIGHEST CLASSES WAS GETTING SMALLER
   THE CLASS SCHEMA DOMINANT AT PRESENT IN THE
              EUROPEAN WING OF RC28
              CONSISTS OF TEN CLASSES
BUT THESE CLASSES RIGHT NOW ARE BEING DISQUALIFIED
     AS MACRO-CLASSES AND THE SCHEMA IS BEING
     CHALLENGED BY THE IDEA OF MICRO-CLASSES
   THIS LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO A STATUS GRADIENT
  RIGHT NOW I AM INTERESTED IN RATHER
DIFFERENT QUESTIONS AND SQUARE TABLES
 I TRY TO MAKE A SEQUENCE OF QUESTIONS
      THAT DRILLS DEEPER AND DEEPER


 A MORE AND MORE SPECIFIC SEQUENCE OF
       QUESTIONS ABOUT WOMEN:
  1. IS THE PERCENT OF EMPLOYED WOMEN
  APPROACHING THAT OF EMPLOYED MEN?
     2. ARE WOMEN WITH A JOB UNDER-
REPRESENTED AMONG THE HIGHEST CLASSES
  AND THE OCCUPATIONS WITH THE HIGHEST
PRESTIGE (EVEN AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
   THEIR EDUCATION AND LABOUR FORCE
              EXPERIENCE)?
 3. ARE HIGHLY EDUCATED WOMEN UNDER-
 REPRESENTED AMONG THE SUPERVISORS?
AFTER EACH MORE DETAILED DESCRIPTIVE QUESTION,
RC28 SOCIOLOGISTS RAISED EXPLANATORY QUESTIONS
    THE ANSWERS ALMOST ALWAYS AMOUNT TO
      HYPOTHESES ABOUT DISCRIMINATION
            - DISCRIMINATION BY MEN


 IF MEN ARE DISCRIMINATING AGAINST WOMEN, THIS
  SHOULD SHOW UP IN SITUATIONS WHERE MEN AND
          WOMEN DEAL WITH EACH OTHER


         SO MY DEEPER QUESTIONS ARE:
4. IF HIGHLY EDUCATED WOMEN ARE SUPERVISING, TO
WHAT EXTENT ARE THEY SUPERVISING WOMEN RATHER
                    THEN MEN?


            EVEN MORE TO THE POINT:
5. HOW MANY MEN HAVE A WOMAN AS A SUPERVISOR?
                        THE NETHERLANDS IN 2009


                          GENDER OF SUPERVISOR
                          MALE          FEMALE



GENDER OF   MALE          88 %          12 %
EMPLOYED
PERSON      FEMALE        56 %          44 %


                     THE ODDS RATIO FOR THIS TABLE:

                                  5.8
THE HIGHER CLASSES OF THE IN RC 28 DOMINANT CLASS
SCHEMA ARE CONTAINING AN EVER HIGHER PERCENT OF
            A COUNTRY’S LABOUR FORCE
   FOR SEVERAL COUNTRIES NOW RC28 MEMBERS
  ESTABLISHED A TREND TOWARDS MORE RELATIVE
       INTERGENERATIONAL CLASS MOBILITY
FOR MOST COUNTRIES IN THE PAST DECADES THE GINI
     FOR INCOME INEQUALITY HAS BEEN RISING


      (HOW) CAN THESE FINDINGS BE SQUARED?
DOES THIS JUXTAPOSITION INDICATE THAT RC28 SHOULD
    MOVE BEYOND THE PRESENT CLASS SCHEMA?


  RATHER THAN STATUS ATTAINMENT AND MACRO OR
             MICRO CLASS MOBILITY,
      SHOULD RC28 STUDY INCOME MOBILITY?
THE TRENDS IN RELATIVE INTERGENERATIONAL
   CLASS MOBILITY ESTABLISHED BY RC28
              SOCIOLOGISTS
 REFER TO THE PERIOD AFTER WORLD WAR 2
AND SOMETIMES TO THE FULL 20TH CENTURY
DEPENDING UPON THE COUNTRY, THE RISE OF
 THE GINI PERTAINS TO THE LAST THREE OR
           FOUR THREE DECADES


   AND WHEREAS MOBILITY PERTAINS TO
     PERSONS TAKEN ON THEIR OWN
   GINI’S PERTAIN TO INDIVIDUALS WITHIN
               HOUSEHOLDS
TO WHAT EXTENT DID THE GINI SINCE 1975
          RISE BECAUSE OF


1. A STRONGER EFFECT OF MACRO CLASS ON EARNINGS?
  2. A STRONGER EFFECT OF LEVEL OF EDUCATION ON
                    EARNINGS?
 3. MORE ONE PERSON HOUSEHOLDS AND MORE LONE
                   MOTHERS?
       4. LOWER SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFITS?
        5. MORE EDUCATIONAL HOMOGAMY?
 6. A STRONGER RISE IN EMPLOYMENT FOR HIGHLY AS
      COMPARED WITH LOWELY EDUCATED WIVES?
  7. A STRONGER EFFECT OF FIELD OF EDUCATION ON
                    EARNINGS?
8. A STRONGER EFFECT OF MICRO CLASS ON EARNINGS?
 ECONOMISTS STUDIED INTERGENERATIONAL INCOME
   MOBILITY FOR THE UNITED STATES IN THE 1980s
       THEY FOUND CORRELATIONS BELOW 0.2
THIS CONTRASTS WITH THE CORRELATION OF 0.4 FOUND
BY SOCIOLOGISTS BETWEEN THE OCCUPATIONAL STATUS
              OF FATHERS AND SONS
ECONOMISTS REVIEWING DUNCAN’S WORK, POINTED OUT
 THAT OCCUPATIONAL PRESTIGE MIGHT MEASURE THE
  LIFE-TIME EARNINGS OF A JOB (PERMANENT INCOME)


    WHEN IN THE 1990s THE CORRELATION WAS NOT
   COMPUTED FOR THE LOGS OF YEARLY EARNINGS,
         BUT FOR THREE-YEAR AVERAGES,
THE CORRELATION ROSE TO THE LEVEL OF THE FINDINGS
                OF SOCIOLOGISTS
     SOLON, AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW 1992
    THE QUESTION OF WHETHER
  INTERGENERATIONAL EARNINGS
MOBILITY DIFFERS FROM COUNTRY TO
             COUNTRY
  WAS FEATURED IN 2007 IN AN OECD
            REPORT
            BY D’ADDIO
INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSMISSION OF
          DISADVANTAGE
 THAT REPORT REFERRED TO A THEN
UNPUBLISHED PAPER BY JÄNTTI ET AL
THE PRIME FINDING WAS THE FOLLOWING TABLE
  SHOWING THAT IF THE GINI INDICATES MORE
  INEQUALITY, EARNINGS MOBILITY IS LOWER
    DO YOU SPOT YOUR ‘OWN’ COUNTRY?
             UPON SEEING THESE FIGURES,
        I STARTED HUNTING FOR DUTCH FIGURES
   STATISTICS NETHERLANDS WAS NOT FORTHCOMING


A TABLE PUBLISHED BY STATISTICS NETHERLANDS IN 2000,
        AND MADE BY THE ECONOMIST CÖRVERS
IT CROSS-CLASSIFIES THE EARNINGS QUINTILES OF FATHERS
      IN 1981 AND THOSE OF THEIR CHILDREN IN 1998
             THIS TABLE HAS AN R OF 0.24
 IF A FATHER’S EARNINGS ARE ONE PERCENT HIGHER, THE
     EARNINGS OF HIS CHILD ARE 0,21 PERCENT HIGHER
 I CANNOT FIGURE OUT TO WHAT EXTENT THESE FIGURES
 ARE COMPARABLE TO THOSE OF THE OTHER COUNTRIES
   THE FIGURES REFER TO 797 FATHER-CHILD COUPLES,
      STARTING OUT WITH A MUCH LARGER SAMPLE
   I981 FATHERS HAD TO BE YOUNGER THAN 55 YEARS,
  THEIR CHILDREN IN 1998 HAD TO BE AT LEAST 35 YEARS
    THE OECD REGARDED AS SURPRISING
THE FINDING THAT A LOT OF INCOME INEQUALITY
   DOES NOT GO TOGETHER WITH A LOT OF
  INTERGENERATIONAL EARNINGS MOBILITY


    IS THERE A SUBSTANTIVE HYPOTHESIS
     PROPOSED BY A RC28 SOCIOLOGIST


 FROM WHICH IT MAY DERIVED THAT IF INCOME
          INEQUALITY IS HIGHER,
 INTERGENERATIONAL EARNINGS MOBILITY IS
             HIGHER TOO?
  THE RC28 MACRO HYPOTHESES POSTULATE
 EFFECTS OF TECHNOLOGY AND IDEOLOGY ON
   ANY FORM OF SOCIETAL INEQUALITY AND
                CLOSURE
  AVERAGING EARNINGS OVER THREE
YEARS DOES AWAY WITH EFFECTS OF THE
    BUSINESS CYCLE IN A COUNTRY
THE EXPLANATION OF RC28 SOCIOLOGISTS
 FOR INTERGENERATION TRANSMISSION IS
 THAT A PERSON’S EDUCATION IS CRUCIAL
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPENDENCE
 OF EDUCATION UPON BACKGROUND IN A
   COUNTRY BEING INFLUENCED BY A
    COUNTRY’S POLITICAL IDEOLOGY


 THE EDUCATION OF PERSONS DEPENDS
  UPON THE CLASS AND EDUCATION OF
 THEIR PARENTS WHILE THESE PERSONS
            WERE YOUNG
 DO ECONOMISTS GO AFTER THE INCOME
  OF PARENTS WHEN A CHILD WAS STILL
              YOUNG?
THE COVER FROM A BRITISH NEWSPAPER DATED
            JANUARY 22ND 2011

IT DEPICTS INCOME INEQUALITY AND SUGGESTS
        THAT IF INEQUALITY IS HIGHER,
         MOBILITY IS MORE DIFFICULT




       THE COVER IS FROM THE ECONOMIST
   IF ONE BELONGS TO THE LOWER
QUINTILES, ONE’S LADDER IS NOT LONG
              ENOUGH
AND PERHAPS THE PERSON STANDING
   ON TOP WILL KICK YOU DOWN


THE QUESTION OF INCOME MOBILITY IS
    WORTHY OF RC28 ATTENTION
 BUT NOT THE HYPOTHESIS THAT MORE
INEQUALITY MAKES FOR MORE MOBILITY


 INEQUALITY MAY MOTIVATE, BUT IS A
             BARRIER
  THIS POWERPOINT IS PLACED ON MY WEBSITE


                 SEARCH IN GOOGLE
                     WOUT ULTEE


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