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Contemporary Conflict

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					                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09



Contemporary Conflict
•   Afghanistan: Graveyard Myths
•   Afghan President Backs New U.S. War Strategy
•   Apply adequate pressure on Sri Lanka for ceasefire and negotiations: LTTE
•   Defiant Tigers frustrate Sri Lanka's military
•   Military Leaders Say Afghan War Needs Time, Money
•   Afghan Police, Coalition Forces Kill 31 Militants
•   Thai, Cambodian troops clash near disputed temple
•   Europeans Offer Few New Troops for Afghanistan
•   Sri Lanka: 420 Tamil Tigers Killed in Rebel Stronghold
•   Corruption Undercuts Hopes for Afghan Police

Terrorism & Counter-Terrorism
•   Fatal Standoff Exposes Pakistan's Vulnerabilities
•   Pak using terrorists as strategic tool against India: Wendy Chamberlin
•   Suicide Blast in Islamabad Kills Eight

Diplomacy & Defence Strategy
•   U.S. to Talk with Kyrgyzstan on Keeping Manas Airbase
•   Building Russian-US Bonds
•   Netanyahu to Obama: Stop Iran—or I Will
•   Pakistan-China underline need for further enhancement of Military ties
•   Promises of ‘Fresh Start’ for U.S.-Russia Relations
•   French, Chinese presidents hold meeting to end tensions over Tibet
•   US wants common Myanmar strategy with Asia
•   Singapore-India Bilateral Exercise in South China Sea ends
•   'Asia-Pacific community' idea wins early Thai support
•   China seeks to enhance military ties with Singapore
•   Laos, Thailand to speed up co-op on trade, security
•   Security matters straining Japan-US alliance
•   Cambodia, Thailand in talks after border clash
•   Official: China, US to resume military exchanges
•   North Korea Seeks Political Gain from Rocket Launch




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Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


Defence Acquisition and Technology
•   Australian Navy to use Thales missile control system
•   US Navy concerned about Chinese 'Kill Weapon'
•   Sudan is No. 2 military client of China
•   Israel tests system to shoot down Iranian missiles
•   Unmanned Cargo Helo May Come To Afghanistan
•   China Adds Precision Strike to Capabilities

Non-Traditional Security
•   Beijing rejects China spy ring report as `lies'
•   Conficker Worm springing into action
•   Cyber warfare a real-time threat

Military / Peacekeeping / Humanitarian Operations
•   U.S. Navy to Send More Forces to Combat Pirates
•   China: 2nd navy fleet to sail for Somali waters
•   Japan: MSDF begins antipiracy mission off Somalia; escorts 5 ships
•   Indonesia, India to intensify security precautions in Andaman Waters

Nuclear Issues/ Biological and Chemical Weapons/ & Missile Technology
•   Malaysians Want Nuclear Weapons Eliminated
•   Energy Department Finishes Huge Laser for Nuclear-Weapon Research
•   Russia to Conduct ICBM Test Next Week
•   Obama Urges Nuclear Arms Reduction
•   North Korean Missile Launch Was a Failure, Experts Say
•   Seoul considers joining anti-WMD proliferation plan
•   Ahmadinejad: Iran ready to contribute to global disarmament
•   Iran Claims Gains in Nuclear Program




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Afghanistan: Graveyard Myths
    The New York Times – March 28

    AS President Obama orders an additional 21,000 troops to Afghanistan, he faces growing skepticism
    over the United States’ prospects there. Critics of the troop buildup often point out that Afghanistan has
    long been the “graveyard of empires.” In 1842, the British lost a nasty war that ended when fierce
    tribesmen notoriously destroyed an army of thousands retreating from Kabul. And, of course, the Soviets
    spent almost a decade waging war in Afghanistan, only to give up ignominiously in 1989.

    But in fact, these are only two isolated examples. Since Alexander the Great, plenty of conquerors have
    subdued Afghanistan. In the early 13th century, Genghis Khan’s Mongol hordes ravaged the country’s
    two major cities. And in 1504, Babur, the founder of the Mughal Empire in India, easily took the throne in
    Kabul. Even the humiliation of 1842 did not last. Three and a half decades later, the British initiated a
    punitive invasion and ultimately won the second Anglo-Afghan war, which gave them the right to
    determine Afghanistan’s foreign policy.

    The Soviet disaster of the 1980s, for its part, cannot be credited to the Afghans’ legendary fighting skills
    alone, as the mujahideen were kept afloat by billions of dollars worth of aid from the United States and
    Saudi Arabia and sophisticated American military hardware like anti-aircraft Stinger missiles, which
    ended the Soviets’ total air superiority.

    In any case, today’s American-led intervention in Afghanistan can hardly be compared to the Soviet
    occupation. The Soviet Army employed a scorched-earth policy, killing more than a million Afghans,
    forcing some five million more to flee the country, and sowing land mines everywhere.

    While the American military is killing too many Afghan civilians, in any given year the numbers are in the
    hundreds, not the hundreds of thousands. And even the most generous estimates of today’s Taliban
    insurgency suggest it is no more than 20,000 men. About 10 times as many Afghans fought against the
    Soviet occupation.

    The Soviet experience in Afghanistan weighed heavily on the minds of Bush administration policymakers,
    who kept a “light footprint” lest Afghans rebuff American and allied soldiers as hated occupiers. But as it
    turned out, the Afghans were widely enthusiastic about being liberated from the Taliban. In an ABC/BBC
    poll conducted in 2005, a full four years after the fall of the Taliban, 8 in 10 Afghans expressed a
    favorable opinion of the United States — an extraordinary proportion in a Muslim nation — and the same
    number supported the American-led overthrow of the Taliban in their country.

    And just last month, in a new poll by ABC and the BBC, 58 percent of Afghans named the Taliban as the
    greatest threat to their nation. Only 8 percent said it was the United States. And while only 47 percent of
    Afghans still had a favorable opinion of America, the Taliban fared far worse, with just 7 percent approval.

<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    What Afghans want is for international forces to do what they should have been doing all along —
    provide them the security they need to get on with making a living. That means building up the Afghan
    Army and police, which are only about one-fourth the size of the security services in Iraq. This will not
    come cheap, but the cost of putting an Afghan soldier in the field is only one-seventieth that of sending
    an American. President Obama, who will travel to Europe for NATO’s 60th anniversary in early April, can
    ask those European countries that are reluctant to send additional troops to Afghanistan to instead
    contribute to a permanent fund to help pay for the expanded Afghan security services.

    The United States should also focus on projects that will bring both security and economic benefits to
    Afghans. A key task is to secure the all-important road between Kabul and Kandahar, a once-pleasant
    freeway that has become a nightmarish gantlet of potential Taliban ambushes.

    Afghanistan’s vast opium/heroin industry finances the Taliban and feeds rampant government corruption.
    The American Drug Enforcement Administration should make public the names of the top Afghan drug
    lords, including government officials, so that they can no longer act with impunity. And because
    Afghanistan’s court system is still incapable of handling major drug cases, Kabul should sign a treaty with
    Washington that would allow key heroin traffickers to be tried in the United States.

    Measures like these would help return Afghanistan to something like the state it was before the Soviets
    invaded in 1979: a relatively peaceful country slowly building itself into something more than a purely
    agricultural economy.

    Afghanistan is no longer the graveyard of any empire. Rather, it just might become the model of a
    somewhat stable Central Asian state.




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Afghan President Backs New U.S. War Strategy
    The Wall Street Journal – March 29

    Afghanistan's president offered support for the new U.S. strategy for the growing conflict in his country,
    praising increased civil and military aid and highlighting a plan for reconciliation with moderate elements
    of the Taliban. Afghan President Hamid Karzai has long championed the idea of reconciliation with the
    Taliban as a key way to tamp down the growing insurgency in Afghanistan. The Bush administration
    generally opposed the idea, but President Barack Obama stressed reconciliation with more-moderate
    elements of the Taliban when he presented the new U.S. strategy Friday.

    "In a country with extreme poverty that has been at war for decades, there will also be no peace without
    reconciliation among former enemies," Mr. Obama said.

    The reconciliation proposal is the most novel part of the new plan, which is focused mostly on increasing
    the scale of ongoing initiatives-promising 4,000 additional troops to train the Afghan army, hundreds
    more civilian specialists to help Afghanistan rebuild and billions of dollars in civilian aid to neighboring
    Pakistan. "In this strategy, the most important issue is Taliban reconciliation and peace talks as President
    Obama mentioned in his speech," Mr. Karzai told a news conference Saturday. Mr. Obama focused on
    reaching out to Taliban militants who have chosen to fight because they need the money or were coerced
    by others. However, he said there is "an uncompromising core of the Taliban" that must be met with force
    and defeated. The plan singles out Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar and other top members.

    The issue of who is targeted for reconciliation could become a source of friction between the U.S. and
    Afghanistan because Mr. Karzai has signaled a greater willingness to talk to hardcore militants-even
    extending an offer to the Taliban leader. There has already been tension between Mr. Karzai and the
    Obama administration over several other issues, including civilian deaths caused by international forces
    and corruption within the Afghan government. Both sides will have to overcome these tensions to make
    the new U.S. strategy effective.

    Mr. Karzai praised Mr. Obama's focus on countering militant sanctuaries in Pakistan, a key part of the
    administration's goal of disrupting and defeating al Qaeda and its allies, who have made a comeback
    following the fall of the Taliban in 2001. U.S.-led forces toppled the Taliban government, but many of the
    militants fled south and east into Pakistan, where they have been launching cross-border attacks against
    Afghan and international forces alongside al Qaeda.

    The U.S. and Afghanistan have repeatedly urged Pakistan to crack down on militants in its territory. The
    Pakistani government has pledged to do so, but many Afghan and Western officials suspect officers
    within the country's spy agency of supporting the Taliban, which Pakistan helped bring to power in
    Afghanistan in the 1990s.


<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Mr. Obama's comments Friday indicated the U.S. would step up pressure on Pakistan by making aid to
    the country conditional on its antiterrorism effort, one of the reasons Mr. Karzai said the new strategy was
    "better than we were expecting." "It is exactly what the Afghan people were hoping for and we were
    seeking," he said. Mr. Obama has also pledged to send an additional 17,000 combat troops to fight
    militants in southern and eastern Afghanistan near the Pakistani border.

    Abdul Basit, a Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesman, said officials were still "looking into nuances" in the
    new U.S. policy before answering questions, including how Pakistan might step up its efforts against al
    Qaeda in its territory. Pakistan's Dawn newspaper said the country's powerful army may bridle at the
    conditions attached to the expanded aid. "The more transactional the U.S.-Pak relationship continues to
    look, the less the security establishment here may be inclined to cooperate," it said in an editorial.

    However, Ishtiaq Ahmed, a professor of international relations at Islamabad's Quaid-i-Azam University,
    forecast that Pakistan's establishment would embrace the new U.S. approach. "The choice is very clear
    right now between a progressive, peaceful and prosperous Pakistan and a situation where terrorism with
    every passing day extends its tentacles further from the mountains to relatively settled areas and into the
    major cities," Mr. Ahmed said. Afghan and international forces have stepped up their operations in
    southern Afghanistan near the Pakistani border, the center of the Taliban insurgency.

    Afghan and coalition forces killed 12 militants Friday during a gunbattle that erupted as troops raided a
    compound in Helmand province, the U.S. military said. Also Friday, Afghan police killed two militants and
    captured two others during an operation in southern Zabul province, the Interior Ministry said. Police also
    killed nine Taliban militants during a clash Friday in southern Kandahar province, said the provincial
    police chief, Matiullah Khan.




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Apply adequate pressure on Sri Lanka for ceasefire and negotiations: LTTE
    Tamil Eelam News –March 31

    The LTTE is not a movement believing that war is the only means to achieve the aspirations of the
    people it represents. But, political solution needs an environment conducive to it. The IC can play a
    positive role by adequately pressurizing Colombo for ceasefire and by promoting negotiations between
    GoSL and the LTTE as equal partners with due recognition, said Selvaraja Pathmanathan, the LTTE
    plenipotentiary for international relations, in an interview to TamilNet on Monday. On the issue of
    civilians, Mr. Pathmanathan said they have already asked the IC, what international instruments now hold
    GoSL accountable for the denial of basic rights of the people already moved and presently living in the
    internment camps.

    Pathmanathan’s interview was a summary of the LTTE’s endorsed position on the current situation. “No
    amount of international concerns or guarantees had enabled the Sri Lanka government to provide a swift
    and just solution for the displaced in the past”, Pathmanathan said, citing the examples of the people of
    Valikaamam, Jaffna, in camps for 19 years and the people of Ma’nalaaru and Thiriyaay in the East for 14
    years. “It is unrealistic to expect that the people of Vanni who have shown allegiance to the LTTE will be
    treated any differently or with justice”, he said. While insisting that the IC should ensure adequate food
    and medicine to the civilians of Vanni in the safe zone as a priority, Pathmanathan said that such a
    humanitarian response is an important step, but band-aid solution will not deal with actual grievances of
    the people.

    Responding to the human-shield accusation, he said that they were people living with the LTTE, sought
    protection from the LTTE and always chose to move towards LTTE, even when they were displaced and
    had chances to go to Colombo’s side. “ LTTE has a moral responsibility to protect them”, he said adding
    that people should not be coerced to leave their place of choice by denial of food and medicine and by
    continuously placing them under shelling.

    Laying down arms before any political solution is unrealistic, he told TamilNet, pointing to the Sri Lankan
    context where the government has built up a brutal force and the peaceful demands of the Tamils in the
    past have always been met with violence of the Sri Lankan forces. “It is wrong to assume that the
    versatile and resilient LTTE is in a weakened position”, he said.

    Looking upon Tamil Nadu as an emotional and geographical base for Eezham Tamils in any fall back and
    appreciating the support of the people of Tamil Nadu, Pathmanathan said that the Tamils who have
    genuine sympathy for India have never been opposed to its strategic interests. On the uprisings of the
    diaspora, Pathmanathan foresees further strengthening and resoluteness, if there is escalation in the
    aggression of Colombo. The right to self-determination is of paramount importance to the diaspora and it
    has clearly recognized the role of LTTE in any solution to the conflict, he said adding that diaspora should
    be given with a chance of being heard by the IC.

<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Defiant Tigers frustrate Sri Lanka's military
    Channel News Asia – March 31

    Two months after President Mahinda Rajapakse vowed that the Tamil Tiger rebels would be defeated
    within days, fighting rages on in Sri Lanka at the cost of escalating military, rebel and civilian lives.
    Government forces who were advancing into Liberation Tigers' of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) territory at the rate
    of more than a kilometre (0.6 miles) a day have slowed to a snail's pace. With the rebels now cornered in
    a tiny but densely populated strip of coastal jungle measuring just 21 square kilometres, the military has
    been struggling to deliver the final blow. The army says the Tigers have fewer than 500 fighters left, but
    those that remain appear to be offering stiff resistance. "It is a matter of life and death for the Tigers and
    that is why they are ferociously fighting back," said former Tiger militant-turned-politician Dharmalingam
    Sithadthan. "They are also using a human shield very effectively." United Nations and other foreign aid
    organisations say as many as 150,000 civilians may be trapped in the combat zone, although the Sri
    Lankan government insists the figure is less than half that. Military officials say the proximity of the two
    sides' frontlines made it impossible to use heavy artillery, multi-barrel rockets and jet aircraft to soften up
    Tiger targets ahead of advancing ground forces. "Progress is going to be slow because we are very, very
    close and can't fire long-range weapons," said military spokesman Brigadier Udaya Nanayakkar. "Also,
    we can't move as rapidly as we would like because of the civilians," Nanayakkar said. "We can't just go
    in." A senior military officer who declined to be named said there were fears the Tigers might stage a
    mass suicide involving civilians as well as their own fighters. "The military expected the civilians to put
    pressure on the Tigers and break free and allow the army to go in and finish the job," the officer said.
    "But the Tigers have used enough terror to prevent civilians from escaping." At the height of their power
    in the mid-1990s, the Tigers controlled more than two-thirds of the island's coastline and a third of the
    total land mass as they pushed for an independent Tamil homeland. Their collapse began two years ago
    and accelerated after the government pulled out of a Norwegian-brokered truce in January 2008.

    The UN has criticised the Tigers for not allowing non-combatants to flee the conflict area, while also
    urging the government to halt its shelling operations. The UN human rights chief, Navi Pillay, has said
    that over 2,800 civilians have been killed in shelling since January 20 - a charge denied by the Sri
    Lankan authorities. President Rajapakse made his prediction of imminent victory in an address to mark
    Sri Lanka's national day on February 4. "I am confident that the Tigers will be completely defeated in a
    few days," the president said then. The Tigers responded two weeks later by flying explosives-laden light
    aircraft over the capital Colombo and bombing the main income tax office. The attack was a minor one
    but still symbolic of the rebels' resilience. Last week, the government's defence spokesman, Keheliya
    Rambukwella, revived the claim that the fighting was in its final phase. "It is apparent that the LTTE are
    now on the imminent brink of defeat," said Rambukwella. But the Tigers have fought on. In the latest
    clash, the military said Monday that 26 Tigers had been killed in a sea battle off the northeastern coast
    where the rebels are making their final stand. Verification of battlefield casualty claims is almost
    impossible as the authorities do not allow independent journalists or observers to travel to the area.


<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Military Leaders Say Afghan War Needs Time, Money
    The Wall Street Journal – April 1

    The situation in Afghanistan is dire, and progress will demand a substantial and sustained commitment,
    military leaders told Congress Wednesday, as they laid out more details of the Obama administration's
    new strategy for the war.

    But skeptical members of the Senate Armed Services committee pressed the defense officials about the
    pace of U.S. troops deploying to the war, and why there are no clear benchmarks on which to gauge
    whether the new strategy is working.

    "How will we know if we're winning?" asked Sen. Susan Collins (R., Maine). "We should not be
    committing additional troops before we have a means of measuring whether this strategy is successful."

    Michele Flournoy, undersecretary of defense for policy, said the administration is working on finalizing a
    set of benchmarks, but moved quickly to send some additional troops to the war because of the urgent
    need to reverse momentum gained by insurgents.

    She and Gen. David Petraeus, commander of the troops in Afghanistan and Iraq, also urged senators to
    support funding to train Pakistani forces to fight militants. And they painted a somewhat pessimistic
    picture, saying that building the Afghan security forces and bolstering the Pakistani military to fight
    insurgents on their side of the border will take more time and money.

    Defense leaders didn't detail what the budget request would be but said a key element will be the fund to
    train Pakistani forces in counterinsurgency operations that would target al Qaeda safe havens along the
    ungoverned Afghan border.

    During the hearing on President Barack Obama's new strategy expanding the Afghan campaign,
    senators also questioned how willing the Pakistani government is to take on that fight against the
    extremists who use the border as a staging area for attacks. Committee Chairman Carl Levin (D., Mich.)
    warned that he doesn't agree with the administration's contention that progress in Afghanistan depends
    on success on the Pakistan side of the border.

    Afghanistan's future shouldn't be tied totally to the Pakistan government's decisions, he said, adding that
    he remains skeptical about Pakistan's ability to secure its border. There are currently 38,000 U.S. troops
    in Afghanistan. Sen. John McCain, top Republican on the panel, took another tack, criticizing the
    Pentagon for delaying decisions to dramatically increase the size of the Afghan army and to add another
    10,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan.

    "To dribble out these decisions, I think, can create the impression of incrementalism," Mr. McCain said.

<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Afghan Police, Coalition Forces Kill 31 Militants
    The Wall Street Journal – April 1

    Afghan police and coalition forces killed 31 militants in a Taliban-controlled region of the country's opium
    poppy-growing belt, the second large battle in the Afghan south in two days, officials said Wednesday.

    Elsewhere, a large explosion near the provincial council's office in Kandahar on Wednesday shook
    Afghanistan's largest southern city. The explosion was followed by bursts of gunfire, an Associated Press
    reporter at the scene said. No officials were immediately available to comment on the explosion and
    gunfire.

    A brother of President Hamid Karzai is the top official on Kandahar's provincial council, but his
    whereabouts were not immediately known.

    The battle that killed 31 militants took place in three villages in the Kajaki region of Helmand province on
    Tuesday, the Interior Ministry said. Twenty militants were wounded in the fighting, it said.

    Kajaki is the site of a U.S.-funded dam that provides hydroelectric power to much of southern
    Afghanistan. While a small unit of British troops protects and controls the dam, those forces are
    surrounded by hostile militants on all sides.

    The Afghan government admits it has little control in that region of Helmand. President Barack Obama is
    sending 21,000 additional U.S. troops to Afghanistan this year, and many thousands are expected to
    deploy to Helmand to aid the British and other international forces who have faced pitched battles in the
    dangerous province.

    Helmand is the world's largest opium poppy-growing region, and U.N. officials estimate that the Taliban
    and other drug lords derive up to $500 million a year from the illegal trade.

    News of the battle in Kajaki came one day after a police chief in Uruzgan province said Afghan and
    foreign troops killed 30 Taliban fighters in his province.

    Violence in Afghanistan is expected to surge this year as the new U.S. troops arrive. Militant attacks have
    grown increasingly deadly the last three years, and insurgents now control wide swaths of countryside
    where Afghan and international forces don't have enough manpower to maintain a permanent presence.




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Thai, Cambodian troops clash near disputed temple
    Reuters –April 3

    Thai and Cambodian soldiers exchanged rocket and rifle fire on a disputed stretch of their border on
    Friday, killing two Thais in the latest flare-up of an ancient feud over a 900-year-old Hindu temple. Both
    sides accused each other of firing first in two separate clashes near the Preah Vihear temple, which is
    claimed by both Southeast Asian nations and saw an armed stand-off last year.Two Thai soldiers were
    killed and six wounded in the fighting, the deputy commander of Thailand's Second Army, Lieutenant-
    General Thawatchai Samutsakorn, told Thai television.

    Cambodian Information Minister Khieu Kanharith said 4 Thais had died and another 10 Thai soldiers
    were being held by Cambodian troops. Thailand's Foreign Ministry denied that any Thais had been
    captured during the morning or afternoon clashes. "We believe that this incident arose from a
    misunderstanding in the area," Foreign Ministry spokesman Tharit Charungvat told reporters in Bangkok.
    There were reports of two Cambodians killed, but Khieu Kanharith said they had not been confirmed.

    The latest fighting comes a day after a Thai soldier lost a leg when he stepped on a land mine in an area
    claimed by Thailand. A Thai patrol visited the blast site early on Friday morning and encountered 20
    Cambodian soldiers. "After talks between the two sides failed, the Cambodian side started to walk away
    and turned back to open fire at Thai troops with rifles and RPG rockets, forcing the Thai side to fire back
    in self-defense," Thailand's Foreign Ministry said in a statement. A second round of fighting erupted in the
    afternoon, with the two sides exchanging rife and rocket fire, and setting a market near the temple
    ablaze. There were no reports of civilian casualties.

    Preah Vihear, or Khao Phra Viharn as it is known in Thailand, sits on an escarpment that forms the
    natural border between the two countries and has been a source of tension for generations. The
    International Court of Justice awarded it to Cambodia in 1962, but the ruling did not determine the
    ownership of 1.8 square miles (4.6 sq km) of scrub next to the ruins, leaving considerable scope for
    disagreement.

    Tensions rose last month when 100 Thai troops crossed into a disputed area near the temple and were
    stopped by Cambodian soldiers, but no fighting occurred. The border had been quiet for months while the
    Southeast Asian neighbors sought to jointly demarcate the jungle-clad area where one Thai and three
    Cambodian soldiers died in last October's exchange of rifle and rocket fire. Cambodian Prime Minister
    Hun Sen, a former Khmer Rouge commander, warned this week that his soldiers would fight if Thai
    troops crossed the disputed border again. The site is 600 km (370 miles) east of Bangkok and only a
    decade ago was controlled by remnants of Pol Pot's Khmer Rouge guerrilla army. Few foreign visitors go
    there, although both countries have said they would like to develop the area as a tourist destination. The
    Cambodia-Thailand Joint Border Committee will meet again on Sunday for three days of talks in the
    Cambodian resort town of Siem Reap to try to find a solution to the row.

<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Europeans Offer Few New Troops for Afghanistan
    The New York Times – April 4

    With protesters raging outside, NATO leaders on Saturday gave a tepid troop commitment to President
    Obama’s escalating campaign in Afghanistan, mostly committing soldiers only to a temporary security
    duty. To a global audience concerned with an exit strategy, Mr. Obama used his most explicit language
    yet in detailing a narrowed war mission: emphasizing intense action against Al Qaeda even above
    instilling Western democracy and rights sensibilities.

    “We want to do everything we can to encourage and promote rule of law, human rights, the education of
    women and girls in Afghanistan, economic development, infrastructure development,” he said. “But I also
    want people to understand that the first reason we are there is to root out Al Qaeda, so that they cannot
    attack members of the alliance.”

    Answering a reporter’s question about whether the troop escalation would be contingent on whether the
    Afghan government rescinded a proposed family law that the United Nations has likened to legalizing
    rape within marriage , Mr. Obama replied that the law should not deter the United States from its military
    goal.

    “I think this law is abhorrent. Certainly the views of this administration have been and will be
    communicated to the Karzai government,” he said. But he added, repeating for emphasis: “I want
    everybody to understand that our focus is to defeat Al Qaeda.”

    For a NATO summit meeting marking the 60th anniversary of the alliance and intended to be without
    drama, the event has been fractious both inside the hall and outside it.

    Thousands of protesters clashed with the riot police and set a hotel and a border post on fire in
    Strasbourg during the session. And although NATO leaders finally reached an agreement on a new
    secretary general — the Danish prime minister, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, 56 — the deal came only after
    days of hard negotiations to overcome Turkey’s opposition.

    The Afghan war, too, remained a dividing line for alliance leaders. Despite a glowing reception and
    widespread praise for Mr. Obama’s style and aims, his calls for a more lasting European troop increase
    for Afghanistan were politely brushed aside, as they had been in negotiations leading up to the meeting.

    As expected, European allies agreed to provide up to 5,000 new troops for Afghanistan, the White House
    said Saturday. But 3,000 of them are to be deployed only temporarily to provide security for the August
    elections in Afghanistan.



<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    A further 1,400 to 2,000 soldiers will be sent to form embedded training teams for the Afghan Army and
    the police.

    Mr. Obama is raising the number of American troops this year to about 68,000 from the current 38,000,
    which will significantly Americanize the war. The new strategy, which the Europeans have pressed for, is
    aimed at creating larger and better-trained Afghan security forces that can defend the country and allow
    the West to leave.

    Much of Mr. Obama’s Afghanistan strategy review, which he formally presented to NATO leaders this
    weekend, reflects the view of a number of administration officials, particularly Vice President Joseph R.
    Biden Jr., that the United States should set limited, achievable goals in Afghanistan.

    “No one will say this publicly, but the true fact is that we are all talking about our exit strategy from
    Afghanistan,” a senior European diplomat said Saturday. “We are getting out. It may take a couple of
    years, but we are all looking to get out.” He spoke on the condition of anonymity under diplomatic rules.

    For Mr. Obama, in many ways, the two months since he took office have been a reality check on the
    difference between Europe’s vocal support and action.

    In January, Obama administration officials expressed optimism that they would receive strong backing
    from European allies on a large number of additional troops for Afghanistan.

    In February, Mr. Biden, appearing at the Munich Security Conference, said the administration was
    introducing a “more for more” strategy, by which it would give Europe more of what it wanted, by
    promising to shut the military prison at Guantánamo Bay and not to engage in torture.

    In return, Mr. Biden said, the United States would expect more from Europe.

    The Europeans have given more, but not much, and largely limited to the period around the August
    election. Germany said it would send an additional 600 troops. Spain offered 600; Britain, 900. European
    nations also offered more financing, promising about $100 million more to support the training mission
    and an additional $500 million in humanitarian aid.

    Before the NATO meeting on Saturday, leaders walked across a sweeping bridge over the Rhine
    between Germany and France to symbolize Europe’s unity. But soon after, masked protesters were
    battling police officers from both countries on another bridge nearby, called the Bridge of Europe, or Pont
    de l’Europe.

    The tensions were reflected inside the meeting hall as well. And NATO leaders struggled to choose the
    alliance’s new secretary general, driving negotiations on Saturday hours past schedule.

<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    NATO works by consensus, and the European-favored candidacy of Mr. Rasmussen was publicly
    opposed by Turkey. Turkey, NATO’s only Muslim-majority country, said that Mr. Rasmussen was
    insensitive to Muslim concerns during the scandal over the Danish newspapers’ publication in 2005 of
    cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad, and that while NATO was fighting in Muslim Afghanistan, the
    symbolism would be all wrong.

    Mr. Rasmussen has also said he does not think Turkey will ever become a full member of the European
    Union. Efforts to sway Turkish officials over the leaders’ lavish dinner Friday at a casino in Baden-Baden,
    Germany, failed, as did a telephone call by Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi of Italy to Turkey’s prime
    minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. But behind closed doors, the deal was done. According to senior
    European diplomats, Turkey was given at least two NATO jobs, including a deputy to the deputy
    secretary general, who is an Italian.

    Turkey was also promised that two blocked chapters of its accession agreement to join the European
    Union would move forward, and that Mr. Rasmussen would publicly address the concerns of the Muslim
    world about his response on the cartoons, possibly as soon as Monday.

    Mr. Obama was said to be important to the Turkish decision to concede, meeting with President Abdullah
    Gul of Turkey and Mr. Rasmussen for an hour before the main session.

    Saturday’s meeting began with niceties, with President Nicolas Sarkozy of France confirming his
    country’s return to full membership in NATO, and with President Obama welcoming Albania and Croatia
    to the alliance. Mr. Obama added that he expected Macedonia to join soon and that NATO’s door
    remained open to other countries. But he made no specific mention of Georgia and Ukraine, whose
    increasingly distant accession to NATO has contributed to a rift in Russia’s relations with the West. At
    last year’s NATO meeting in Romania, President George W. Bush pushed hard for membership for
    Georgia and Ukraine, but he was rebuffed by European leaders.

    While the United States has since then given lip service to continued support for NATO membership for
    Georgia and Ukraine, Obama administration officials have privately indicated that they do not plan to put
    membership for those two countries at the top of the American agenda. “The door to membership will
    remain open for other countries that meet NATO’s standards and can make a meaningful contribution to
    allied security,” Mr. Obama said.

    In DNA, the Strasbourg newspaper, Jean-Claude Kiefer wrote: “More than his charisma, it is the style of
    Barack Obama that seduces Europeans. His speech ignores the ‘wooden tongue,’ this sad political
    specialty of Old Europe, and goes always, without detours, without populist or tortured formulas, to the
    essential.” Mr. Sarkozy and Mrs. Merkel, the hosts, praised Mr. Obama. “We are very pleased to work
    with him,” Mr. Sarkozy said. “We trust him.”


<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Sri Lanka: 420 Tamil Tigers Killed in Rebel Stronghold
    The Wall Street Journal – April 5

    Sri Lankan forces killed 420 Tamil Tigers in the last three days and drove the rebels into a "no-fire" zone
    crowded with tens of thousands of civilians trying to flee the fighting, the military said Sunday.
    Government troops captured the entire Puthukkudiyiruppu area, the last rebel stronghold on the edge of
    the safety zone in the island's war-ravaged north, military spokesman Brig. Udaya Nanayakkara said. He
    said the Tamil Tigers are now confined to the "no-fire" zone in a narrow strip of land along a beach in
    northeastern Sri Lanka.

    The latest fighting is likely to raise concerns of the United Nations and aid groups, which have already
    expressed worries for the safety of trapped civilians. The military has accused the rebels of building
    fortifications inside the "no-fire" zone. It hasn't said how it plans to capture the remaining rebels while
    safeguarding the civilians. Government forces have been saying for months they are in a final push to
    defeat the rebels -- the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam -- and end 25 years of civil war after a string of
    major victories in which the rebel administrative capital and main bases were captured.

    A military statement said the rebels are "now facing a total annihilation as the soldiers are engaged in a
    man-to-man combat against them in the last terror pocket." The military doesn't give figures for its own
    casualties, and accounts of battles cannot be verified because independent journalists are barred from
    the war zone.

    The "no-fire" zone was declared earlier this year by the government as a place for tens of thousands of
    civilians trapped by the fighting to go. The small strip of coastal land measures just 7.7 square miles. The
    military and aid organizations have accused the rebels of firing artillery shells from the "no-fire" zone and
    holding the civilians there as human shields. The rebels have denied the charges.

    The U.N. says an estimated 150,000 to 190,000 people are trapped, resulting in dozens of deaths each
    day. However, the government says more than 23,000 civilians escaped last month and 30,000 to 40,000
    still remain. The Tamil Tiger rebels have fought since 1983 to create an independent homeland for ethnic
    minority Tamils, who have faced decades of marginalization by successive governments controlled by
    ethnic Sinhalese. More than 70,000 people have been killed in the violence.




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Corruption Undercuts Hopes for Afghan Police
    The New York Times –April 8

    As part of his new strategy for Afghanistan, President Obama has announced plans to send 4,000 more
    American troops this spring to train the Afghan National Police and Army.

    But a shortage of American trainers is only one factor hampering the Afghan police. If the experience of
    the American troops already training police officers in Ghazni Province is any indication, better policing
    may be impossible for Afghanistan unless government officials at all levels stop cannibalizing their civil
    administration and police force for a quick profit.

    In two weeks of interviews in this mountainous region of poor farmers and shepherds, exasperated
    American soldiers said it was hard to determine which was their more daunting opponent — the few
    thousand Taliban who ruled villages through a shadow government of mullahs, or corruption so rife that it
    had deeply undercut efforts to improve the police and had destroyed many Afghans’ faith in government.

    That lack of trust, coupled with the absence of security forces in almost all villages, further strengthens
    the hand of the Taliban as the only real power here. Ghazni’s experience shows the challenge that
    corruption presents to efforts to establish better policing throughout the country.

    The list of schemes that undermine law enforcement is long and bewildering, according to American and
    Afghan officers who cite some examples: police officials who steal truckloads of gasoline; judges and
    prosecutors who make decisions based on bribes; high-ranking government officials who reap payoffs
    from hashish and chromite smuggling; and midlevel security and political jobs that are sold, sometimes
    for more than $50,000, money the buyers then recoup through still more bribes and theft.

    In some cases the American officers requested that their names not be used when discussing specific
    allegations or that the titles of certain Afghan government and police leaders be withheld, since it would
    otherwise make it impossible to work with these officials, an important part of their mission.

    But the frustration was palpable as they described the enormous corruption running the length of the
    civilian administration in this province of 1.3 million people, whose capital, Ghazni, lies 80 miles
    southwest of Kabul.

    Referring to one corrupt and high-ranking government official he sees routinely, Maj. Randy Schmeling, a
    43-year-old Army National Guardsman who commands the American police mentoring teams in Ghazni,
    said, “I’d like to break down his door, stomp on his chest, point my 9-millimeter at his head and say, ‘Stop
    what you are doing!’ ”



<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Some of the troops’ Afghan colleagues recognize the problem, too. “In every office there is corruption,”
    said Col. Mohammed Zaman, the departing provincial police chief. “It’s not only prosecutors and judges.”

    “This is the reason no one accepts the rule of law,” he said, “because the government is not going by the
    rule of law.”

    The result is an ineffective and woefully undersupplied Afghan police force and a frustrating lack of
    justice for Afghans. Worse still, by comparison with the government’s exercise of authority, the law
    imposed by the Taliban is far more certain — quick and clear, if ruthless.

    “The appointed officials and elected officials, the people don’t trust them, and they don’t trust them with
    good reason,” Major Schmeling said. “They take from them and they give nothing back.”

    He added: “Right now, there is no meritocracy here. It’s, ‘Hey, your sister has a pretty mouth — do you
    want to be a general?’ ”

    That culture of corruption affects everything: promotions, assignments, the resolution of cases. As one
    example, Major Schmeling pointed to a police officer who a year ago was a lowly patrolman and gate
    guard. Then, he said, the policeman scraped together the money for a new job: a top noncommissioned
    officer on the provincial police force.

    “As long as people are buying themselves into positions like that, the people will never trust the system,”
    the major said.

    To those buying jobs, the payments are an investment they intend to recover, along with a profit. Jobs
    that bring more money, like posts near the Kabul-Kandahar highway that allow opportunities for extorting
    truckers and smugglers, sell for a premium, soldiers here say.

    But in the process, honest officials are passed over or punished. “You could say that the corruption you
    are involved in is an investment in your future, and your family’s future,” said First Lt. Craig Porte, a
    military intelligence officer in Ghazni, who said it was “fairly common to buy your position” in government.
    “If you are not involved in corruption, you are seen as an enemy of those who are, which has a tendency
    to get you fired.”


    Many soldiers question whether anything will ever change. “The corruption here is a bigger threat to a
    stable government than the Taliban,” said First Sgt. John Strain, the senior noncommissioned officer on
    the American unit training the Ghazni police.



<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    “If we stay here another year, or another 50 years, I think it’ll probably only take two to three years after
    we are gone until it reverts to the way it was right before we got here,” he added. “To have to admit that
    when you look at these kids,” he said, referring to Afghanistan’s children, “it really breaks your heart, to
    think that what you are doing is probably not going to turn out to be a hill of beans.”

    Extortion by police officers is common. But there is fraud and swindling up the chain of command, too.
    Several police officials are part of a group that has been stealing thousands of gallons of gasoline a
    month, a major reason some districts receive less than half their allotments, said American officers, who
    are mostly powerless to do anything but report corruption to their superiors.

    As a measure of the corruption, the American officers said, one senior provincial official recently paid
    $50,000 to free a kidnapped relative — about five times his annual salary.

    American officers described another Ghazni provincial police official who had a lucrative side business:
    coercing police officers to sign requisitions for far more weapons than they actually needed. Then the
    official would keep the extra weapons and sell them, sometimes to the Taliban. The official was killed
    recently, officers said.

    In some places, government officials are believed to have paid off Taliban fighters to limit attacks,
    allowing smuggling that benefits provincial officials to continue without interference, several American
    and Afghan officials from Ghazni said.

    In this swindle, provincial “bodyguards” demand protection money from smugglers, anywhere from $400
    to $2,000 per truck, for safe passage through Ghazni, said a Ghazni police official recently forced out of
    his job.

    “High-ranking officials in Ghazni have immunity from the law,” said the official, who feared retribution and
    agreed to speak only if he was not identified. Likening many provincial officials to a criminal mafia, he
    added, “People have no choice but to go to the Taliban to solve their problems.”

    Indeed, in Ghazni’s impoverished villages, where the light brown of clay walls and mud homes is broken
    only by green plots of winter wheat, the Taliban exploit the widespread sense that the government does
    not serve people. When the Taliban were in power in the 1990s, corruption and official bribery were more
    limited.

    The lack of competent civilian authority aids the insurgents. Afghan Army officers trained by Maj. Daren
    Runion “don’t like the Taliban,” he said. But some believe “that in some ways parts of their rule were
    better.”



<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Police officers from a handful of Ghazni districts have gone through an intensive eight-week training
    course and returned to their districts to be overseen by American mentors. Nationwide, more than 3,000
    police officers have gone through the course, a linchpin of the American effort to expand the police.

    The new training has helped the police on the ground. Patrolmen are more alert, with better weapons
    discipline and less absenteeism, American officers here say.

    But with little support from the government, most police forces remain a trivial presence in villages,
    marshaling their meager resources just to protect district centers and their small outposts.

    Even if the corruption were not so debilitating, American and Afghan forces would still face a sizable
    enemy. Major Schmeling estimates that there are 2,000 Taliban fighters in the province. “They still
    exercise the exact same control over these villages that they had up until 2001,” he said.

    In Qarabagh, one of the largest districts, the Taliban use 40 villages as bases to dominate hundreds of
    other villages, said Qarabagh’s deputy police chief, Capt. Mohammed Younus.

    Police recruits are easy prey. Twenty-four policemen have been killed in Taliban ambushes and roadside
    bombings in Qarabagh over the past year, Captain Younus said.

    “We don’t have any presence with the civilians,” he said. “Taliban live with them 24 hours a day.”
    Residents take complaints to local Taliban leaders, not the police, he said. “They have a judge and
    prosecutor. The Taliban is active at the bazaar in each village.”

    In Waghaz District, near Qarabagh, there are just 50 permanent Taliban members, among a population
    of up to 60,000 ethnic Pashtuns and 33,000 Hazara, said Abdul Azim, the subgovernor of Waghaz. Yet
    the Taliban do not need a large presence to dominate, he explained. Last year, he said, the Taliban took
    three men from their homes whom they suspected of helping the government.

    “They burned the three men and chopped their limbs off with axes,” he said. “That’s why the 60,000
    cannot beat the 50.”




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Fatal Standoff Exposes Pakistan's Vulnerabilities
    The Wall Street Journal – March 31

    Gunmen armed with assault rifles and hand grenades stormed a police academy in eastern Pakistan on
    Monday, sparking a daylong battle with security forces that left at least 11 people dead before the
    assailants were overwhelmed by paramilitary troopers and police.

    By the end of the day, the top floor of the three-story academy -- where the militants made their final
    stand -- was littered with blood, spent ammunition and body parts from at least two attackers who
    detonated their suicide vests rather than surrender.

    The attack on the outskirts of Lahore, long seen as Pakistan's most cosmopolitan and tolerant city, casts
    a harsh spotlight on the country's faltering effort to combat Islamic militancy, a failure that has prompted
    officials in Washington and Islamabad to warn that the country's very existence is at risk.

    Punjab province, of which Lahore is the capital, had until recently largely been spared much of the
    violence that has engulfed wide swaths of this nuclear-armed South Asian nation where the Taliban and
    al Qaeda have put down deep roots.

    But last month, a dozen gunmen opened fire on a bus carrying the Sri Lankan cricket team and its police
    escort in Lahore, killing six police officers and a driver.

    Monday's attack drew comparisons to that incident -- as well as to last year's three-day assault on the
    Indian city of Mumbai, a rampage that has been blamed on Islamic militants trained in Pakistan.

    Like those two previous attacks, the assault on the police academy Monday was well-coordinated, with
    the attackers striking the compound around 7:30 a.m., just as hundreds of recruits were lined up on a
    dusty parade ground, unarmed and exposed.

    The gunmen tossed grenades over a six-foot brick wall that rings the academy before bursting through its
    rear gates and opening fire, witnesses said. They quickly overpowered or chased off the few security
    guards assigned to the academy's front gate. It was unclear how many men attacked the academy.

    Within minutes of the initial assault, bodies of dead and wounded policemen were strewn about the
    grounds of the academy as survivors scrambled to help their fallen colleagues and escape.

    One of the wounded recruits, Mehmood Iqbal, said the academy's weapons are kept locked inside the
    building. "We couldn't defend ourselves. We had only our hands," said the 22-year-old, who managed to
    scramble through a hole in the academy's wall. He was being treated at a hospital for a light bullet wound
    to his right leg.

<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Another of the recruits caught up in the attack, Zayed Amin, said, "All I heard was gunfire. There was
    screaming, I know. But all I heard was tat-tat-tat-tat." The 21-year-old escaped over the wall. "We had to
    run to live."

    Soon enough, though, reinforcements began arriving. By midday, police, paramilitary troops and army
    soldiers were out in force around the academy, taking up positions in the two-story and three-story brick
    buildings that ring the compound, as police sharpshooters tried to pick off the militants.

    Inside the academy, paramilitary commandoes from the elite Punjab Rangers said they faced gunfire and
    grenades from militants posted in the upper floors and on the roof. "They saw us moving. It was very
    hard for us to see them," said a commando who gave his name only as Zahid. The security forces
    eventually cornered several militants on the top floor, and freed about three dozen hostages.

    "The eight hours were like eight centuries," said Mohammad Salman, 23, one of the hostages, according
    to the Associated Press. "It was like I died several times. I had made up my mind that it was all over."

    Reflecting confusion that engulfed the academy throughout the day, reports of the number of people
    killed and militants captured differed widely. The death tolls given by different officials ranged from 11 to
    more than 30. At least 90 people were wounded. "It was a planned, organized, terrorist attack. This
    shows the extent to which the enemies of our country can go," said Interior Ministry chief Rehman Malik.
    The attacks also raise questions for U.S. President Barack Obama, who last week unveiled a revamped
    strategy for stabilizing Pakistan and Afghanistan that includes billions of dollars in aid for Islamabad.
    There was no claim of responsibility for the attack, but suspicion immediately fell on banned Islamic
    militant groups with ties to al Qaeda.

    Mr. Malik later said one of the arrested men was an Afghan, and suggested the attack may have been
    plotted by Baitullah Mehsud, a major Pakistani Taliban leader, who is based in the tribal areas along the
    Afghan border. He also named the group Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, which originated in Punjab. The group has
    also been blamed for the attack on the cricket team and is now believed to be training its Punjabi recruits
    at camps in the tribal areas -- a region largely controlled by the Taliban and al Qaeda. Another Punjabi
    group with ties to al Qaeda, Lashkar-e-Taiba, has been blamed for the Mumbai attack. Police and
    paramilitary officers who took part in Monday's gun battle said they heard the attackers speaking in
    Punjabi accents.

    There is significant cross-fertilization between the two groups and others, and "the attacks are becoming
    more organized and coordinated, indicating that more than one group are involved," said Tasneem
    Noorani, a former home secretary. But perhaps more worrying for Pakistan than who was behind the
    attack was their choice of location. Punjab province is Pakistan's most populous and lies far from the
    mountainous tribal areas where Pakistani forces are struggling to dislodge Taliban and al Qaeda fighters.


<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Pak using terrorists as strategic tool against India: Wendy Chamberlin
    The Nation – April 2

    Pakistan has, over past several decades, been using terrorists as a strategic tool against India to achieve
    its goals in Kashmir, several American experts have told a powerful Congressional panel, warning the
    U.S.against mediating between the two nations on the issue. Testifying before a subcommittee of the
    House Oversight and Government Reform Committee on "Afghanistan and Pakistan: Understanding and
    Engaging Regional Stakeholders," experts told lawmakers that this dangerous policy needs to be ended.
    They also observed that such a policy now seems to have backfired as the same terrorists and
    extremists groups have gone against the Pakistani establishment, which is reflected in series of terrorist
    attacks in Lahore recently. "Over the last many years Pakistan has been covertly supporting Kashmir
    terrorist groups -- now they're called Punjabi terrorist groups -- to harass India in Kashmir," said Wendy
    Chamberlin, president of the prestigious Middle East Institute and former U.S.Ambassador to Pakistan.
    "Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad are some of these groups. Indians regard them as just as much a
    terrorist group as al Qaeda, and certainly the horrific attack at Mumbai is evidence of that," said
    Chamberlin. Lisa Curtis, Senior Research Fellow for South Asia in the Heritage Foundation's Asia
    Studies Center, cautioned the U.S.to avoid falling into the trap of directly mediating in the decades-old
    Kashmir issue. "The U.S. is more likely to have success in defusing Indo- Pakistani tensions if it plays a
    quiet role in prodding the two sides to resume talks that had made substantial progress from 2004 to
    2007, even on Kashmir," she said. Curtis said Pakistani security officials calculate that the Taliban offers
    the best chance for countering India's regional influence. "Pakistan also believes that India foments
    separatism in its own Baluchistan province. Given these concerns, I think it is in India's interest to ensure
    that its involvement in Afghanistan is transparent to Pakistan, and the U.S.has a role to play in ensuring
    this," she said. Chamberlin said Pakistan had hoped for a more friendly government in Afghanistan so
    that "it would not have to face an adversary on both the western and the eastern border". "Pakistan has
    been quite... distressed that Indians have re-established themselves so strongly in Afghanistan after
    2001," he said testifying before the National Security and Foreign Affairs Subcommittee. Chamberlin said
    Pakistan is upset about Indian aid projects along its border and about Indian road construction and has
    been fearful that India is using its foothold in Afghanistan as a platform for a spy network. "It's accused
    India of launching some anti-government assistance to groups within Pakistan from India," he said,
    adding, Pakistan is disappointed to have lost its defence strategy of strategic depth.




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Suicide Blast in Islamabad Kills Eight
    The Wall Street Journal –April 5

    A suicide bomber penetrated a paramilitary post in the heart of Pakistan's heavily-guarded capital
    Saturday evening, killing at least eight people just miles from the presidential palace in an attack that
    sharply illustrated the nuclear-armed country's vulnerability to Islamic militants. The militants have
    repeatedly targeted the security forces in recent months. There were conflicting reports from police on
    whether the bomber was alone or part of a group of terrorists. But gunfire could be heard from the camp
    in the minutes following the blast, and a police official said one alleged attacker had been captured.
    Interior Ministry chief Rehman Malik blamed the bombing on the myriad Islamic militant groups that have
    beset Pakistan and have been held responsible for a string of recent attacks, including last week's
    assault on a police training center in the eastern city of Lahore. "They are working to destabilize
    Pakistan," he told reporters following the attack. The symbolism of Saturday's attack was high. The
    presidential palace and nearly all the key government offices lie just few miles from the site of the attack,
    and the victims were armed paramilitary troopers eating their dinner inside a small post ringed by barbed
    wire and machine gun emplacements. The attack also took place in one of Islamabad's wealthiest
    neighborhoods and close to the rebuilt Marriott Hotel, which was gutted in September by a truck bombing
    that killed 53 people.

    Authorities said the bomber appeared to have slipped into the Frontier Corps camp through a side
    entrance. The camp is set back from one of Islamabad's main roads and abuts the forested Margalla
    hills, which run along the north side of Islamabad. "Obviously he (the attacker) has used the other side of
    the jungle to come in," Mr. Malik said. He added that the camp's guards had left their posts to eat dinner,
    likely giving the bomber an opportunity to slip inside the perimeter undetected. Senior police official Bina
    Amin said the bomber detonated his explosives inside a one the large tents in the camp, and that five
    people had been wounded in addition to the six killed. It wasn't clear if the tent was where the troopers
    were eating dinner. The bomber "must have seen the routine of the platoon, like what time they eat
    dinner," Mr. Malik said.

    Saturday's bombing was the latest in a string of recent attacks against police, paramilitary forces and
    other heavily guarded targets deep inside Pakistan, hundreds of miles from the remote areas along the
    Afghan border where the Taliban and al Qaeda hold sway. Pakistan's faltering effort to combat Islamic
    militancy has prompted officials in Washington and Islamabad to warn that the country's very existence is
    at risk. Hours before the assault in Islamabad, a suicide car bomber tried to ram his vehicle into a
    checkpoint at the entrance of army headquarters in the North Waziristan tribal region, an area that
    borders Afghanistan and is largely under Taliban control. Soldiers manning the checkpoint opened fire
    before the car reached them and the vehicle exploded, The Associated Press reported. Three soldiers
    were wounded. North Waziristan is also believed to be an important base for al Qaeda. A suspected U.S.
    pilotless drone aircraft fired two missiles at an alleged militant hide-out Saturday in the region, killing 13
    people.

<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    U.S. to Talk with Kyrgyzstan on Keeping Manas
    Defense News – March 28

    Kyrgyzstan has invited the U.S. to discuss retaining the Manas Air Base outside Bishkek that serves as a
    key supply route to Afghanistan, a senior U.S. official said in Moscow on March 27. "We've agreed to
    enter into discussions with the Kyrgyz at their invitation on the possibility of the agreement (on the air
    base remaining in force)," the official, who asked not to be named, said in Moscow.

    Kyrgyzstan on Feb. 20 officially set in motion the process for closing the airbase at Manas, outside the
    Kyrgyz capital, by handing the U.S. a 180-day notice to leave the base. The base is a vital support post
    for U.S. and Western operations, as it is used for ferrying tens of thousands of troops in and out of
    Afghanistan each year and also hosts planes used for mid-air refueling of combat craft. Kyrgyz Foreign
    Minister Kadyrbek Sarbayev said on March 26 after talks in Moscow that Kyrgyzstan was not
    reconsidering its decision to close the U.S. airbase.




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Building Russian-US Bonds
    Washington Post – March 31

    It is hard to dispute the pessimistic assessments of the Russian-American relationship that prevailed at
    the end of last year. Unfortunately, relations soured because of the previous U.S. administration's plans
    -- specifically, deployment of the U.S. global missile defense system in Eastern Europe, efforts to push
    NATO's borders eastward and refusal to ratify the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe. All of
    these positions undermined Russia's interests and, if implemented, would inevitably require a response
    on our part.

    I believe that removing such obstacles to good relations would be beneficial to our countries -- essentially
    removing "toxic assets" to make good a negative balance sheet -- and beneficial to the world. This will
    require joint efforts. The exchange of letters between myself and President Obama this year showed
    mutual readiness to build mature bilateral relations in a pragmatic and businesslike manner. For that we
    have a "road map" -- the Strategic Framework Declaration our countries signed in Sochi in 2008. It is
    essential that the positive ideas in that declaration be brought to life. We are ready for that.

    Possible areas of cooperation abound. For instance, I agree with President Obama that resuming the
    disarmament process should become our immediate priority. The wish to ensure absolute security in a
    unilateral way is a dangerous illusion. I am encouraged that our new partners in Washington realize this.

    It also appears that we all understand the need to search for collective solutions to the problems facing
    Afghanistan, with the involvement of all influential players. In this spirit, Moscow hosted a broad-based
    conference on Afghanistan under the auspices of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. We welcome
    the U.S. initiative to convene a United Nations conference in the Netherlands. It is critical that Russia and
    the United States view these conferences as mutually reinforcing rather than competitive.

    Neither Russia nor the United States can tolerate drift and indifference in our relations. I spoke in
    Washington last November about the need to put an end to the crisis of confidence. To begin with, we
    should agree that overcoming our common negative legacy is possible only by ensuring equality and
    mutual benefit and by taking into account our mutual interests. I am ready for such work with President
    Obama on the basis of these principles, and I hope to begin as early as tomorrow at our first meeting in
    London before the Group of 20 summit.

    The state of the global economy is a great concern to all. We can ensure the sustainability of the global
    financial system only by making its architecture mutually complementary and reliant on a diversified
    system of regional reserve currencies and financial centers. During the summit, Russia and the United
    States can help lead the effort to establish universal rules and disciplines that would apply to all parties
    without exception. We should also think together of whether it might be expedient to introduce a world
    supranational reserve currency, potentially under the aegis of the International Monetary Fund.

<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    In bilateral relations, we need to see more successful investment projects, joint research and
    development by companies, and increased trade in high-tech products.

    The end of the Cold War and subsequent globalization fundamentally altered the geopolitical context of
    our relations and vastly increased the importance of leadership. Today, effective leadership must be
    collective, based on the desire and ability to find common denominators for the interests of the
    international community and major groups of states. The G-20 summits are a major step toward this.

    I am convinced that Russia and the United States can offer much to the world while maintaining our
    special responsibility in world affairs. These opportunities are most visible on the issues of strategic
    stability and nuclear security. The nature of the Russian-U.S. relationship to a large extent determines
    transatlantic politics, which could use trilateral cooperation among the European Union, Russia and the
    United States as its pillar.

    The need to restart our cooperation is prompted in part by the history of our relations, which includes a
    number of highly emotional moments -- diplomatic support provided by Russia to the United States at
    critical points of America's development, our joint fight against fascism and the era of détente.

    In his inaugural address, President Obama explicitly expressed his understanding that the United States
    needed to change together with the rest of the world. His speech deeply impressed me with its unbiased
    assessment of America's problems. I agree that greatness is never a given. It must be earned.

    Long ago, Alexis de Tocqueville predicted a great future for our two nations. So far, each country has
    tried to prove the truth of those words to itself and the world by acting on its own. I firmly believe that at
    this turn of history, we should work together. The world expects Russia and the United States to take
    energetic steps to establish a climate of trust and goodwill in global politics, not to languish in inaction
    and disengagement. We cannot fail to meet those expectations.




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Netanyahu to Obama: Stop Iran—or I Will
    The Atlantic – March 31

    In an interview conducted shortly before he was sworn in today as prime minister of Israel, Benjamin
    Netanyahu laid down a challenge for Barack Obama. The American president, he said, must stop Iran
    from acquiring nuclear weapons—and quickly—or an imperiled Israel may be forced to attack Iran’s
    nuclear facilities itself.

    “The Obama presidency has two great missions: fixing the economy, and preventing Iran from gaining
    nuclear weapons,” Netanyahu told me. He said the Iranian nuclear challenge represents a “hinge of
    history” and added that “Western civilization” will have failed if Iran is allowed to develop nuclear
    weapons.

    In unusually blunt language, Netanyahu said of the Iranian leadership, “You don’t want a messianic
    apocalyptic cult controlling atomic bombs. When the wide-eyed believer gets hold of the reins of power
    and the weapons of mass death, then the entire world should start worrying, and that is what is
    happening in Iran.”

    History teaches Jews that threats against their collective existence should be taken seriously, and, if
    possible, preempted, he suggested. In recent years, the Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has
    regularly called for Israel to be “wiped off the map,” and the supreme Iranian leader, Ayatollah Khamenei,
    this month called Israel a “cancerous tumor.”

    But Netanyahu also said that Iran threatens many other countries apart from Israel, and so his mission
    over the next several months is to convince the world of the broad danger posed by Iran. One of his chief
    security advisers, Moshe Ya’alon, told me that a nuclear Iran could mean the end of American influence
    in the Middle East. “This is an existential threat for Israel, but it will be a blow for American interests,
    especially on the energy front. Who will dominate the oil in the region—Washington or Tehran?”

    Netanyahu said he would support President Obama’s decision to engage Iran, so long as negotiations
    brought about a quick end to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. “How you achieve this goal is less important than
    achieving it,” he said, but he added that he was skeptical that Iran would respond positively to Obama’s
    appeals. In an hour-long conversation, held in the Knesset, Netanyahu tempered his aggressive rhetoric
    with an acknowledgement that nonmilitary pressure could yet work. “I think the Iranian economy is very
    weak, which makes Iran susceptible to sanctions that can be ratcheted up by a variety of means.” When I
    suggested that this statement contradicted his assertion that Iran, by its fanatic nature, is immune to
    pressure, Netanyahu smiled thinly and said, “Iran is a composite leadership, but in that composite
    leadership there are elements of wide-eyed fanaticism that do not exist right now in any other would-be
    nuclear power in the world. That’s what makes them so dangerous.”


<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    He went on, “Since the dawn of the nuclear age, we have not had a fanatic regime that might put its
    zealotry above its self-interest. People say that they’ll behave like any other nuclear power. Can you take
    the risk? Can you assume that?”

    Netanyahu offered Iran’s behavior during its eight-year war with Iraq as proof of Tehran’s penchant for
    irrational behavior. Iran “wasted over a million lives without batting an eyelash … It didn’t sear a terrible
    wound into the Iranian consciousness. It wasn’t Britain after World War I, lapsing into pacifism because of
    the great tragedy of a loss of a generation. You see nothing of the kind.”

    He continued: “You see a country that glorifies blood and death, including its own self-immolation.” I
    asked Netanyahu if he believed Iran would risk its own nuclear annihilation at the hands of Israel or
    America. “I’m not going to get into that,” he said.

    Neither Netanyahu nor his principal military advisers would suggest a deadline for American progress on
    the Iran nuclear program, though one aide said pointedly that Israeli time lines are now drawn in months,
    “not years.” These same military advisers told me that they believe Iran’s defenses remain penetrable,
    and that Israel would not necessarily need American approval to launch an attack. “The problem is not
    military capability, the problem is whether you have the stomach, the political will, to take action,” one of
    his advisers, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told me.

    Both Israeli and American intelligence officials agree that Iran is moving forward in developing a nuclear-
    weapons capability. The chief of Israeli military intelligence, Major General Amos Yadlin, said earlier this
    month that Iran has already “crossed the technological threshold,” and that nuclear military capability
    could soon be a fact: “Iran is continuing to amass hundreds of kilograms of low-enriched uranium, and it
    hopes to exploit the dialogue with the West and Washington to advance toward the production of an
    atomic bomb.”

    American officials argue that Iran has not crossed the “technological threshold”; the director of national
    intelligence, Admiral Dennis Blair, said recently that Israel and the U.S. are working with the same set of
    facts, but are interpreting it differently. “The Israelis are far more concerned about it, and they take more
    of a worst-case approach to these things from their point of view,” he said. The chairman of the Joint
    Chiefs of Staff, Michael Mullen, recently warned that an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities would
    undermine stability in the Middle East and endanger the lives of Americans in the Persian Gulf.

    The Obama administration agrees with Israel that Iran’s nuclear program is a threat to Middle East
    stability, but it also wants Israel to focus on the Palestinian question. Netanyahu, for his part, promises to
    move forward on negotiations with the Palestinians, but he made it clear in our conversation that he
    believes a comprehensive peace will be difficult to achieve if Iran continues to threaten Israel, and he
    cited Iran’s sponsorship of such Islamist groups as Hezbollah and Hamas as a stumbling block.


<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Ya’alon, a former army chief of staff who is slated to serve as Netanyahu’s minister for strategic threats,
    dismissed the possibility of a revitalized peace process, telling me that “jihadists” interpret compromise as
    weakness. He cited the reaction to Israel’s unilateral withdrawal from Gaza four years ago. “The mistake
    of disengagement from Gaza was that we thought like Westerners, that compromise would defuse a
    problem—but it just encouraged the problem,” he said. “The jihadists saw withdrawal as a defeat of the
    West … Now, what do you signal to them if you are ready to divide Jerusalem, or if you’re ready to
    withdraw to the 1967 lines? In this kind of conflict, your ability to stand and be determined is more
    important than your firepower.”

    American administration sources tell me that President Obama won’t shy from pressuring Netanyahu on
    the Palestinian issue during his first visit to Washington as prime minister, which is scheduled for early
    May. But Netanyahu suggested that he and Obama already see eye-to-eye on such crucial issues as the
    threat posed by Hamas. “The Obama administration has recently said that Hamas has to first recognize
    Israel and cease the support of terror. That’s a very good definition. It says you have to cease being
    Hamas.” When I noted that many in Washington doubt his commitment to curtailing Jewish settlement on
    the West Bank, he said, in reference to his previous term as prime minister, from 1996 to 1999, “I can
    only point to what I did as prime minister in the first round. I certainly didn’t build new settlements.”

    Netanyahu will manage Israel’s relationship with Washington personally—his foreign minister, Avigdor
    Lieberman, of the anti-Arab Israel Beiteinu party, is deeply unpopular in Washington—and I asked him if
    he could foresee agreeing on a “grand bargain” with Obama, in which he would move forward on talks
    with the Palestinians in exchange for a robust American response to Iran’s nuclear program. He said:
    “We intend to move on the Palestinian track independent of what happens with Iran, and I hope the U.S.
    moves to stop Iran from gaining nuclear weapons regardless of what happens on the Palestinian track.”

    In our conversation, Netanyahu gave his fullest public explication yet of why he believes President
    Obama must consider Iran’s nuclear ambitions to be his preeminent overseas challenge. “Why is this a
    hinge of history? Several bad results would emanate from this single development. First, Iran’s militant
    proxies would be able to fire rockets and engage in other terror activities while enjoying a nuclear
    umbrella. This raises the stakes of any confrontation that they’d force on Israel. Instead of being a local
    event, however painful, it becomes a global one. Second, this development would embolden Islamic
    militants far and wide, on many continents, who would believe that this is a providential sign, that this
    fanaticism is on the ultimate road to triumph.

    “Third, they would be able to pose a real and credible threat to the supply of oil, to the overwhelming part
    of the world’s oil supply. Fourth, they may threaten to use these weapons or to give them to terrorist
    proxies of their own, or fabricate terror proxies. Finally, you’d create a great sea change in the balance of
    power in our area—nearly all the Arab regimes are dead-set opposed to Iran’s acquisition of nuclear
    weapons. They fervently hope, even if they don’t say it, that the U.S. will act to prevent this, that it will use
    its political, economic, and, if necessary, military power to prevent this from happening.”

<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    If Iran acquires nuclear weapons, Netanyahu asserted, Washington’s Arab allies would drift into Iran’s
    orbit. “The only way I can explain what will happen to such regimes is to give you an example from the
    past of what happened to one staunch ally of the United States, and a great champion of peace, when
    another aggressive power loomed large. I’m referring to the late King Hussein [of Jordan] … who was an
    unequalled champion of peace. The same King Hussein in many ways subordinated his country to
    Saddam Hussein when Saddam invaded Kuwait in 1990. Saddam seemed all-powerful, unchallenged by
    the United States, and until the U.S. extracted Kuwait from Saddam’s gullet, King Hussein was very
    much in Iraq’s orbit. The minute that changed, the minute Saddam was defeated, King Hussein came
    back to the Western camp.”

    One of Iran’s goals, Netanyahu said, is to convince the moderate Arab countries not to enter peace
    treaties with Israel. Finally, he said, several countries in Iran’s neighborhood might try to develop nuclear
    weapons of their own. “Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons could spark a nuclear arms race in the
    Middle East. The Middle East is incendiary enough, but with a nuclear arms race it will become a
    tinderbox,” he said.

    Few in Netanyahu’s inner circle believe that Iran has any short-term plans to drop a nuclear weapon on
    Tel Aviv, should it find a means to deliver it. The first-stage Iranian goal, in the understanding of
    Netanyahu and his advisers, is to frighten Israel’s most talented citizens into leaving their country. “The
    idea is to keep attacking the Israelis on a daily basis, to weaken the willingness of the Jewish people to
    hold on to their homeland,” Moshe Ya’alon said. “The idea is to make a place that is supposed to be a
    safe haven for Jews unattractive for them. They are waging a war of attrition.”

    The Israeli threat to strike Iran militarily if the West fails to stop the nuclear program may, of course, be a
    tremendous bluff. After all, such threats may just be aimed at motivating President Obama and others to
    grapple urgently with the problem. But Netanyahu and his advisers seem to believe sincerely that Israel
    would have difficulty surviving in a Middle East dominated by a nuclear Iran. And they are men
    predisposed to action; many, like Netanyahu, are former commandos.

    As I waited in the Knesset cafeteria to see Netanyahu, I opened a book he edited of his late brother’s
    letters. Yoni Netanyahu, a commando leader, was killed in 1976 during the Israeli raid on Entebbe, and
    his family organized his letters in a book they titled Self-Portrait of a Hero. In one letter, Yoni wrote to his
    teenage brother, then living in America, who had apparently been in a fight after someone directed an
    anti-Semitic remark at him. “I see … that you had to release the surplus energy you stored up during the
    summer,” Yoni wrote. “There’s nothing wrong with that. But it’s too bad you sprained a finger in the
    process. In my opinion, there’s nothing wrong with a good fist fight; on the contrary, if you’re young and
    you’re not seriously hurt, it won’t do you real harm. Remember what I told you? He who delivers the first
    blow, wins.”



<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Pakistan-China underline need for further enhancement of Military ties
    Associated Press of Pakistan – April 1

    Pakistan and China have underlined the need for further improving and enhancing Military-to-Military and
    defence cooperation for the mutual benefits of the two sides. This was discussed on Wednesday at
    meeting between Federal Minister for Defence, Ch. Ahmad Mukhtar, and the visiting seven member
    Chinese Defence delegation led by LT General Jia Tingan Deputy Chief of General Political Department,
    PLA (China) called on the Minister. The meeting discussed the ongoing defence projects especially JF-
    17 Thunder Aircraft and F-22P Frigates projects being built with Chinese assistance and expressed
    satisfaction over the progress achieved so far. Talking to the delegation, the Minister said that Pakistan
    attached utmost importance to its ties with China which has always supported Pakistan in the areas of
    trade, economy and particularly defence.
    He informed the delegation that Pakistan was highly appreciative of Chinese support in strengthening
    and promoting its defence industry. The Minister also lauded recently held “Aman Exercise 2009” with
    Pakistan Navy. He expressed the hope that such exercises would bring the two Navies further closer and
    would also help in benefiting from each other’s experience. He also assured that Pakistan would provide
    all possible support to the Chines Naval ships engaged in anti-piracy operations. Lt General Jia Ting an,
    Deputy Chief of General Political department, PLA (China), stressed the need for further promoting closer
    Military-to-Military cooperation so as to meet the challenges confronting the regions particularly the
    growing menace of terrorism. He lauded the commendable role played by Pakistan against the war on
    terror. He also extended invitation to the minister from this Chinese counterpart to visit China in June
    2009. The Chinese ambassador to Pakistan Luo Zhao Hui also attended the meeting.




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Promises of ‘Fresh Start’ for U.S.-Russia Relations
    The New York Times – April 1

    President Obama and President Dmitri A. Medvedev of Russia, in their first meeting, vowed a “fresh
    start” in relations and announced their intention to cooperate on a variety of issues, beginning with
    negotiations on a new arms control treaty. In seeking to recast a relationship that has been teetering on
    the brink of a new cold war, the two leaders also promised to work together on the war in Afghanistan
    and efforts to rein in Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Appearing after a 70-minute session here, the two struck a
    warm tone.

    “What we’re seeing today is the beginning of new progress in the U.S.-Russian relations,” Mr. Obama
    said. “And I think that President Medvedev’s leadership is, and has been, critical in allowing that progress
    to take place.”

    The relationship has suffered in recent years over a series of issues, from missile defense to NATO
    expansion to Russia’s invasion of the Georgian territory of South Ossetia. Mr. Obama conceded that
    there remained “real differences” between the countries. But he said he had no intention of “papering
    over those differences,” which he said had developed because “the relationship between our two
    countries has been allowed to drift.” Mr. Obama, who is making his debut on the world stage this week at
    the Group of 20 economic summit meeting, spent Wednesday engaged in a series of firsts: besides his
    first meeting with Mr. Medvedev, he also met with Queen Elizabeth II at Buckingham Palace and with
    President Hu Jintao of China.

    He defended the United States from French and German criticism that Washington was trying to bully
    others into pumping more money into economic stimulus programs. And he tried to sound optimistic that
    the Group of 20 meeting on Thursday, which is already featuring a schism between the United States
    and Europe over deregulation and spending, would accomplish something more than posturing.

    “I am absolutely confident that this meeting will reflect enormous consensus about the need to work in
    concert to deal with those problems,” he said. But by far the most wrenching conflict that he tackled on
    Wednesday involved Russia. Mr. Obama and Mr. Medvedev met for about 10 minutes with only their
    interpreters present, and spent 60 minutes in discussions with a larger delegation that included Secretary
    of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and the national security adviser, James L. Jones.

    First meetings between American and Russian leaders are fraught with historical significance. Premier
    Nikita S. Khrushchev famously pummeled President John F. Kennedy in 1961 during a two-day grilling in
    Vienna at a meeting Mr. Kennedy characterized as the “roughest thing in my life”; shortly after that
    meeting, Mr. Khrushchev began building the Berlin Wall.



<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    President George W. Bush and President Vladimir V. Putin established a personal rapport in Slovenia in
    2001 that was badly eroded later by a string of contentious issues, like America’s plans to locate a
    missile defense system in Eastern Europe against Russian wishes.

    Mr. Obama walked into the meeting with Mr. Medvedev on Wednesday, his aides said, determined not to
    repeat past mistakes. After initial pleasantries — the two men discussed their shared interest in law —
    Mr. Obama, the aides recounted, said, “All right, let’s get down to business,” and began discussions that
    included Afghanistan, Iran, missile defense and human rights.

    Mr. Obama brought up Lev A. Ponomaryov, a Russian human rights leader and frequent Kremlin critic,
    who was beaten late Tuesday outside his Moscow home. The president did not, however, mention the
    jailed former tycoon Mikhail B. Khodorkovsky, who is being tried in Russia on charges of tax evasion and
    other offenses that his supporters claim are trumped up.

    A joint statement released after the meeting promised a “fresh start in relations between our two
    countries,” and White House officials said Mr. Obama would visit Moscow in July.

    “We, the leaders of Russia and the United States, are ready to move beyond cold war mentalities,” the
    two men said in the statement. “In just a few months we have worked hard to establish a new tone in our
    relations. Now it is time to get down to business and translate our warm words into actual achievements
    of benefit to Russia, the United States and all those around the world interested in peace and prosperity.”

    But clear problems between the nations remained visible, even when viewed through the prism of the
    joint statement, which sought to emphasize common ground. On European missile defense, for instance,
    the statement acknowledged “that differences remain” but said that Mr. Obama and Mr. Medvedev
    looked into possibilities for cooperation, “taking into account joint assessments of missile challenges and
    threats.”

    That appeared to be a noncommittal way of saying that Russia still had not lifted its intense objections to
    American plans to locate a missile defense system in Eastern Europe, and that the Obama administration
    was not willing to give up those plans unless it received something from Russia in return, foreign policy
    experts said.

    The United States could be looking for more cooperation on international efforts to halt what the West
    believes are Iran’s efforts to acquire a nuclear weapon despite Tehran’s obligations under the Nuclear
    Nonproliferation Treaty. “While we recognize that under the N.P.T. Iran has the right to a civilian nuclear
    program, Iran needs to restore confidence in its exclusively peaceful nature,” the statement said,
    reflecting the Russian argument that Iran’s nuclear ambitions may have been overstated. Still, in a
    concession to the United States, the statement called on Iran to stop its enrichment of uranium and to
    allow more international weapons inspections of its nuclear facilities.

<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    French, Chinese presidents hold meeting to end tensions over Tibet
    Channel News Asia – April 2

    The French and Chinese presidents Nicolas Sarkozy and Hu Jintao held talks in London in a bid to end
    tensions over Tibet, a Chinese official said. China was furious at Sarkozy for meeting the exiled Tibetan
    spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, but the talks late Wednesday on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit
    was intended to end the dispute. "Our meeting today means a new starting point for the bilateral
    relations, and I hope the two sides work together to usher in a new phase in Chinese-French ties," Hu
    told Sarkozy, according to China's state Xinhua news agency.

    Chinese state television showed images of the encounter with a stern looking Hu talking briskly, while
    Sarkozy bowed his head and scribbled in his notebook. "Recently, China-France relations have had
    some serious difficulties, which is something we did not want to see," Hu was quoted as saying. "France
    has reaffirmed that it will support the one China policy and that Tibet is an inseparable part of China."
    Sarkozy's December 6 encounter with the Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader, in Poland on
    December 6 brought icy diplomatic protests from Beijing. China cancelled a China-European Union
    summit in December when France held the rotating EU presidency. There were public protests such as
    cyber-attacks on the French embassy website while French businesses worried about the fallout.

    Any hint of recognition of an independent Tibet is one of the worst diplomatic offences that can be
    committed in Chinese eyes and the London meeting had been in doubt for several days. The Chinese
    foreign ministry at first said Hu had no intention of meeting the French president.

    But the two governments on Wednesday announced that France and China have decided to renew "high
    level contacts". "France fully understands the importance and sensitivity of the Tibet question and
    reaffirms its policy of there being only one China and that Tibet is an integral part of Chinese territory,"
    said the French foreign ministry. "In this spirit and in respect of the principle of non-interference, France
    denies having any support for Tibetan independence in any form," it added. "The two sides are willing to
    strengthen communication and consultation and jointly face the world financial crisis and other global
    challenges," the Chinese foreign ministry said in a statement. "The two sides have decided to hold high-
    level contacts and a strategic dialogue at an appropriate time, promote bilateral cooperation in all
    spheres and promote the stable development of China-France relations."

    China opposes any government figure meeting the Dalai Lama, whom it accuses of being intent on
    achieving independence for Tibet after 58 years of Chinese rule. The Dalai Lama says he only wants
    autonomy for the Himalayan region where there have been deaths in protests in recent months,
    according to Tibetan sources. Franco-Chinese ties were already strained before the December meeting.
    Chinese public opinion was shocked when athletes carrying the Olympic torch through Paris on its way to
    the Beijing Olympics were harassed by pro-Tibetan protesters. In February, China protested the auction
    in Paris of two Chinese bronze relics looted during the Second Opium War in 1860.

<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    US wants common Myanmar strategy with Asia
    Channel News Asia – April 2

    The United States wants to forge a common strategy with Asia to coax military-run Myanmar out of
    isolation, a senior official said on Wednesday, suggesting six-way talks with North Korea could be a
    model. President Barack Obama's administration has launched a review of policy on Myanmar, also
    known as Burma, where a US official last week paid the first visit by a senior envoy in more than seven
    years.

    Deputy Secretary of State Jim Steinberg said the United States wanted a “collaborative and constructive”
    approach on Myanmar, saying nations with sway over the junta should avoid “recreating a mini version of
    the Great Game.” Viewing relations with a notorious authoritarian regime like Burma as a zero-sum game
    is in no nation's interest," Steinberg told the National Bureau of Asian Research, a think-tank.

    “We want to discuss a common approach with ASEAN, with China, with India and with Japan to find a
    policy that will improve the lives of the people of Burma and promote stability in this key region,” he said.
    Asian nations including those in ASEAN, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, have mostly tried to
    engage with Myanmar. China is the key trade and military partner of the junta, which crushed 2007
    protests led by Buddhist monks.

    The Asian approach contrasts with that of the United States and the European Union, which have
    slapped sanctions on the regime to pressure it to improve human rights and free pro-democracy leader
    Aung San Suu Kyi.

    Steinberg said the US "core objectives" would remain the same after the review - to seek a "more open"
    Myanmar that respects the rights of its people and integrates into the global economy. "We all have a
    common interest in working together to get a constructive solution that convinces the junta that the path
    they are pursuing is not in their interest," he said. He said Myanmar was an issue on which the United
    States was open to setting up new "flexible" frameworks similar to the six-nation talks on ending North
    Korea's nuclear program. "The solution to many global problems will not always be in creating new formal
    institutions or new bureaucracies," he said.




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Singapore-India Bilateral Exercise in South China Sea ends
    Channel News Asia – April 3

    The annual Singapore-India Maritime Bilateral Exercise (SIMBEX) concluded on Thursday. According to
    a statement from Singapore's Ministry of Defence (MINDEF), the exercise, which was conducted in the
    South China Sea, began on March 24.

    The Republic of Singapore Navy (RSN) participated in this year's exercise with two missile corvettes, a
    frigate and a submarine. The Indian Navy (IN) deployed two destroyers, a corvette and an oil tanker.
    Maritime patrol aircraft from both countries provided air surveillance for the exercise, while fighter aircraft
    from the Republic of Singapore Air Force simulated aerial attacks.

    SIMBEX started in 1994 with anti-submarine warfare exercises. MINDFEF said over the years, SIMBEX
    has grown in scope and complexity, and has evolved to include advanced naval warfare exercises
    involving air, surface and sub-surface dimensions. Both navies share longstanding bilateral relations and
    also interact professionally through regular exchange programmes, staff talks and courses.




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    'Asia-Pacific community' idea wins early Thai support
    Radio Australia News – April 3

    The Thai Prime Minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, is prepared to include discussion of his Australian
    counterpart's push for a new regional body at the East Asia Summit.
    Thailand is hosting the Asian meeting. The Thai leader and Australian counterpart Kevin Rudd have had
    talks in London ahead of the G20 summit. Mr Rudd has been raising his idea of an Asia Pacific
    Community during his overseas trip. He has talked about it with the US Secretary of State, Hiliary Clinton,
    and senior US senator John McCain.

    Indonesia, Russia

    A spokesman for Mr Rudd says the Thai leader told the Australian during their talks he would welcome a
    discussion of the new community proposal at the Asian summit. Mr Rudd has also met Indonesian
    President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in London. He and the
    Indonesian leader discussed the need for help for developing nations. The president expressed support
    for Australia's decision to provide Indonesia with a standby loan should it be necessary. While the G20 is
    not likely to discuss detail of future fiscal stimulus, the Indonesian and Australian leaders agreed on the
    need for coordinated stimulus. Like other leaders, Mr Rudd has engaged in an intensive round of
    diplomacy during the opportunity presented by the actual four-hour G20 summit meeting on Thursday.




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    China seeks to enhance military ties with Singapore
    China Daily – April 3

    Senior Chinese military official Guo Boxiong said here on Thursday that China would like to deepen
    friendly military ties and enhance pragmatic cooperation with Singapore. Guo, vice chairman of the
    Central Military Commission, said, cooperation between the two nations in political, economic, cultural
    and scientific fields had been developing continuously, which brought tangible benefits to the two
    peoples, in a meeting with Singaporean Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defence Teo Chee Hean.

    He said relations between the two armed forces have developed well, with increasing mutual trust, more
    exchange of visits and increased cooperation in defense consultation, personnel and military training.
    "China is willing to work with Singapore to enhance pragmatic cooperation in various fields, and play an
    active role in promoting common development and prosperity and safeguarding the regional peace and
    stability,” he said.
    Teo said that Singapore had attached great importance to Singapore-China relations and would like to
    make efforts to enhance the trust and understanding with China as well as mutually beneficial
    cooperation. The two sides also exchanged views on international and regional situation and issues of
    common concern.




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Laos, Thailand to speed up co-op on trade, security
    China View – April 3

    The governments of Laos and Thailand have reached a consensus on speeding up trading cooperation,
    investment expansion, and security-related issues, the Lao newspaper Vientiane Times reported Friday.
    The cooperation prospects were reached at the 15th meeting of the two countries' Joint Commission on
    Lao-Thai Cooperation recently held in Laos. At the meeting, the Lao delegation led by Deputy Prime
    Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Thongloun Sisoulith, and its Thai counterpart led by Foreign
    Minister Kasit Piromya agreed to boost cooperation in trade and investment between the two countries.
    Both ministers resolved to accelerate negotiation of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) on
    cooperation and promotion of contract farming projects, so the MOU can be signed on the occasion of an
    official visit to be made by Lao President Choummaly Sayasone to Thailand in May. Regarding security-
    related issues, the two sides congratulated each other on the sound cooperation between their respective
    armies, which retain security along both sides of their shared border. Both parties agreed to continue to
    accelerate work on border surveying and demarcation, both on land and water. The meeting set a target
    to complete land demarcation by 2009, while water territory demarcation is expected to be complete by
    2010.




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Security matters straining Japan-US alliance
    Honolulu Advertiser – April 5

    Despite the high-sounding diplomatic rhetoric of recent months, the alliance between Japan and the U.S.
    is in the doldrums. It's not so much that there are strains between Washington and Tokyo but more that
    security relations are listless. When Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was in Tokyo in February, she said
    the alliance is "a cornerstone of our foreign policy." Later that month, President Obama welcomed Prime
    Minister Taro Aso to the White House, saying: "The friendship between the United States and Japan is
    extraordinarily important to our country."

    The Japanese ambassador to the U.S., Ichiro Fujisaki, defended Japan's contributions in an interview
    while visiting Hawai'i in March. "We are doing as much as we can," he said, "in economics and
    diplomacy." He noted that Japan would host an international conference in Tokyo this month to promote
    economic aid to Afghanistan where Japan is paying the salaries of 80,000 Afghan policemen for six
    months.

    Out of the public eye, however, those engaged in maintaining the alliance pointed to several corrosive
    elements:

     Japan's political roller coaster. Since Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi stepped down in September
    2006, Japan has had three prime ministers — Shinzo Abe, Yasuo Fukuda and the incumbent, Taro Aso
    — and six defense ministers in those 31 months. Much of Koizumi's initiative in the realm of security went
    out with him. Moreover, Japan must hold parliamentary elections by September, with both leading parties
    in disarray. Whether the ruling Liberal Democratic Party will retain Aso is unclear, nor has a front runner
    appeared to replace him. The leader of the opposition Democratic Party of Japan, Ichiro Ozawa, was
    once considered a front runner but had been losing ground steadily because of a financial scandal in his
    campaign contributions.

     Defense dissatisfaction. American officers, usually understanding of the political and budgetary
    constraints under which Japanese officers must operate, have privately become impatient. "The
    Japanese didn't pull their weight," said one officer about Japanese troops in Thailand opting out of Cobra
    Gold maneuvers alongside U.S., Thai and Singaporean troops in northern Thailand. Japan has been
    slow, compared with China and European nations, to send warships to the Gulf of Aden to fend off
    pirates seeking to hijack cargo ships in that well-travelled waterway. Some Japanese officers have also
    expressed frustration with their political leaders for imposing restraints that the officers contend do not
    serve Japan's national interests.

    An exception has been missile defense, in which Japan has done more than other allies to invest in
    ships, sensors and computers, to train with U.S. forces, and to plan to respond to potential threats from
    North Korea and China.

<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    In Washington, the president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, John
    Hamre, was quoted in the Japanese press as saying: "If Japan reduces its commitment to the alliance
    with the U.S., it needs to seriously face up to security challenges in the region."

    Hamre, an influential member of the US foreign policy "establishment," said Japan would need to
    increase its defense spending to 3 percent of gross domestic product, compared with one percent now.
    Moreover, he said, "Japan will face the issue of nuclear arms ... as there is a nuclear threat by North
    Korea and China."

    Noting that some Japanese, led by Ozawa, have called on the U.S. to withdraw all but its naval forces
    from Japan, Hamre said: "The Navy alone, or the Air Force, or the Army alone will not create the
    fundamental security foundation." A withdrawal of U.S. troops, he said, "would create a distance and a
    vacuum between the two nations."




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Cambodia, Thailand in talks after border clash
    Channel News Asia – April 5

    Cambodian and Thai officials held urgent talks to prevent fresh fighting on their border Sunday after
    months of tensions over disputed land near an ancient temple flared up into deadly gunbattles. A third
    Thai soldier died in hospital following Friday's clashes, which plunged relations between the neighbours
    to a new low just days before a regional summit that was supposed to focus on the global economic
    slowdown.

    Military officials from both sides met over lunch in disputed territory near the 11th century Preah Vihear
    temple on Sunday, while Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen was set to meet Thai officials later in the
    capital Phnom Penh. "We held the meeting in order to make the situation return to normal and to make
    sure there's no more gunfire. We have agreed to stay on our sides of the border," Cambodian Major
    General Srey Doek said after the lunchtime talks.

    Troops could be seen chatting and some even stowed away their weapons but said they remained ready
    to fight after their clash, the biggest burst of violence over the territory since four people died there in
    October.

    Decades of tensions over ownership of the site started to boil over after Cambodia successfully applied
    for United Nations world heritage status for the ruins in July.

    Major General Kanok Netrak Thavesanak, the Thai officer who attended the talks near Preah Vihear,
    said officials from his country would meet later with Hun Sen.

    Cambodian cabinet spokesman Phay Siphan said the meeting would focus on the recent violence. There
    was no immediate reaction on the talks from the military or foreign ministry in Bangkok.

    "A Thai official is going to meet with the Cambodian prime minister today and they will talk about the
    clashes that happened two days earlier," Phay Siphan told AFP.

    Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva meanwhile said that the issue would come up when he meets with
    Hun Sen at a summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and its regional partners in
    Thailand next week.

    "This will be raised in next week's meeting to find a solution to the problem," Abhisit said in his weekly
    television broadcast. "It is sad for those who lost their lives. We will speed up the return of the situation to
    normal and resume the talking process as soon as possible," Abhisit added.



<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Pre-arranged talks on the border situation, the latest in a series that have been held over the past six
    months, are also set to go ahead as planned on Monday and Tuesday in Phnom Penh. The Thai and
    Cambodian leaders both sought to play down the latest crisis on Saturday, saying that it was the result of
    a misunderstanding and that the two countries were not at war. But while tensions had noticeably eased
    at the border on Sunday, Cambodian troops said they remained alert against alleged Thai incursions.
    "The situation is not escalating, but if the Thais try to enter the banned area something might happen. If
    they don't come, there will be no problems," commander Bun Thean told AFP Sunday.

    Cambodian foot soldiers patrolling the area said they would fight to the death to protect the ancient
    temple perched on a forested cliff overlooking green swathes of countryside. "We are not afraid of Thai
    soldiers. Everything happened because Thai soldiers want to take our temple and land," said Cambodian
    soldier Chum Chuon as he patrolled the ancient Khmer temple.

    Friday's violence damaged a government office and destroyed a local market. Hundreds of Cambodians
    who lost their homes in the fighting were evacuated to a school 20 kilometres (12 miles) away. In 1962
    an international court awarded the ruins to Cambodia, but the most accessible entrance is in Thailand
    and the two countries still dispute ownership of the surrounding land. The border in the area is poorly
    defined, partly because it is heavily mined after decades of conflict in Cambodia.




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Official: China, US to resume military exchanges
    China Daily – April 3

    China and the United States will resume military exchanges that were suspended last November. Foreign
    Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said yesterday that President Hu Jintao and his US counterpart, Barack
    Obama, reached the agreement at their first meeting on Wednesday, one day before the G20 summit in
    London.
    The White House said in a statement on Wednesday: "Both sides share a commitment to military-to-
    military relations and will work for their continued improvement and development."

    A researcher lauded the move. "In the long term, repairing and developing military ties between China
    and the United States are in the interests of both," Zhang Tuosheng, with the China Foundation for
    International and Strategic Studies, told China Daily.
    China called off military exchanges late last year over the planned US sale of weapons to China's Taiwan
    province. The two countries held military defense policy talks in Beijing in February, in what analysts said
    was a prelude to a resumption of military exchanges.

    ASEAN summits

    Premier Wen Jiabao will propose a series of initiatives to strengthen cooperation with the Association of
    Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Pattaya, Thailand, this month, Qin said. ASEAN, China, Japan and
    South Korea will hold several summits from April 10 to 12. The financial sector will be Wen's focus, Qin
    said, adding that the summits will help Southeast and East Asian nations fight the financial crisis. Facing
    common challenges with ASEAN, China is willing to work with the 10-member bloc to tackle the financial
    crisis, Qin said. China and ASEAN plan to build the world's most populous free-trade area by 2010. They
    have already implemented free-trade pacts on a wide range of goods and are working to liberalize
    investment and the service sector.




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    North Korea Seeks Political Gain from Rocket Launch
    The New York Times – April 6

    Despite the failure of North Korea’s attempt to launch a satellite, Pyongyang’s adversaries voiced alarm
    on Monday over the extended range of the North’s latest rocket, while the United Nations tumbled into a
    disarray over how to respond to what President Obama called a “provocative act.”

    Washington and Seoul said the North Korean rocket launched on Sunday failed to thrust a satellite into
    orbit. But on Monday, seeking to garner political gain from the test, the North Korean media praised Kim
    Jong-il’s leadership, insisting that a communications satellite was circling the Earth, broadcasting patriotic
    songs.

    Officials and analysts in Seoul said the North’s rocket, identified by American officials as a Taepodong-2,
    flew at least 2,000 miles, doubling the range of an earlier rocket it tested in 1998 and boosting its
    potential to fire a long-range missile.

    The impoverished country may be years away from building a truly intercontinental ballistic missile and
    tipping it with a nuclear warhead. But to governments grown increasingly concerned by the North’s
    military might, the launch was a sign that it was doggedly moving in that direction.

    “North Korea’s reckless act of threatening regional and global security cannot have any justification,” said
    President Lee Myung-bak of South Korea in a radio speech on Monday.

    Hours after North Korea’s missile test on Sunday, President Obama called for new United Nations
    sanctions and laid out a new approach to American nuclear disarmament policy — one intended to
    strengthen the United States and its allies in halting proliferation.

    “In a strange turn of history, the threat of global nuclear war has gone down, but the risk of a nuclear
    attack has gone up,” Mr. Obama told a huge crowd in Prague’s central square. “Black market trade in
    nuclear secrets and nuclear materials abound. The technology to build a bomb has spread.”

    He said the North’s testing of “a rocket that could be used for long-range missiles” illustrated “the need
    for action, not just this afternoon at the U.N. Security Council, but in our determination to prevent the
    spread of these weapons.”

    “Rules must be binding,” he said. “Violations must be punished. Words must mean something.”

    At the Security Council on Sunday, the United States and its main allies — Japan, France and Britain —
    pushed for a resolution denouncing the test as a violation of the 2006 sanctions, which demanded that
    North Korea suspend any activity related to the launching of ballistic missiles.

<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Diplomats said a main issue would be determining if the failed launch violated any resolutions.

    “We think that what was launched is not the issue; the fact that there was a launch using ballistic missile
    technology is itself a clear violation,” said Susan E. Rice, the U.S. ambassador.

    China left its position ambiguous, although diplomats said that at the initial meeting it stressed that the
    North Koreans had a right like any other country to launch satellites. “Our position is that all countries
    concerned should show restraint and refrain from taking actions that might lead to increased tensions,”
    Zhang Yesui, the Chinese ambassador, told reporters.

    Igor N. Shcherbak, the Russian deputy envoy, said that his country did not think it was a violation of the
    resolutions banning ballistic missiles, but he added that Russia was still studying the matter.

    Mexican Ambassador Claude Heller, the council’s president, said the council would reconvene on
    Monday.

    In Tokyo, Foreign Minister Hirofumi Nakasone said: “We feel that a Security Council resolution is
    desirable, so we will keep trying for that.”

    Although the debris of the North Korean rocket fell hundreds of kilometers short of where the North had
    said they would land in the Pacific, “the launch carries big political and military significance,” said Jeung
    Young-tai, an analyst at the Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul.

    “No country will be naive enough to believe that it was a peaceful space program,” Mr. Jeung said. “North
    Korea is on the threshold of becoming an intercontinental ballistic missile country.”

    Peter Hayes, director of the Nautilus Institute, a San Francisco-based think tank, said the main motivation
    behind the launch was “to demonstrate the strength and vitality of Kim Jong Il’s leadership to the military
    and the population, and for the scientific sector to declare its fealty to Kim Jong Il’s leadership.” Kim is
    expected to be re-affirmed as leader by his rubber-stamp parliament, which convenes on Thursday.

    The people in the tightly isolated country have little access to news from the outside world, where the
    satellite launch was considered a failure. When North Korea first flight-tested the Taepodong-2, in July
    2006, it blew apart 40 seconds after take-off. The rocket is designed to fly at least 6,700 kilometers, or
    4,200 miles, according the South Korean Defense Ministry. This time, the official KCNA news agency
    asserted, “storms of hurrays shook the room” as the satellite entered orbit.




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Australian Navy to use Thales missile control system
    DefPro – March 31


    Recently, the Australian Department of Defense and Thales Nederland signed a contract for a user
    licence of Thales's Mid-Course Guidance and Sampled Data Homing function. This function will be
    utilised from 2011 within the warfare systems that are part of the Royal Australian Navy’s ANZAC
    Class Frigate Anti-Ship Missile Defense Upgrade Project.

    The Mid-Course Guidance and Sampled Data Homing function is based on Interrupted Continuous
    Wave Illumination (ICWI), a Thales development with the APAR partners in the APAR program that
    enables a single missile control radar to guide several missiles simultaneously to several threats.

    With this contract, the number of navies using ICWI has risen to five. The German and Netherlands'
    Navies are operational users of the Thales APAR multi-function radar that was the first radar to use
    ICWI. The Patrol Ships for the Danish Navy, scheduled to be operational in 2011, will also be
    equipped with APAR radars. The Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force has purchased the ICWI
    function for their latest helicopter carriers and future destroyers. The addition of yet another major
    Navy to this list proves the substantial advantages of ICWI-based radar systems over conventional
    systems and Thales Nederland's leading position worldwide in naval sensor technology.




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    US Navy concerned about Chinese 'Kill Weapon'
    Asia Bulletin – April 1

    The United States Navy has expressed concern about a report that China has developed a "kill weapon"
    that potentially could target and destroy a U.S. aircraft carrier in a single strike. According to Fox News,
    the U.S. Naval Institute, a pro-military organization, notes that a post on a Chinese blog considered
    credible by military analysts provides a description of an anti-ship ballistic missile that could hit U.S. ships
    from about 1,240 miles.

    A senior U.S. Navy official at the Pentagon confirmed to FOX News that such a weapon is a tangible
    threat from China, but it isn't a new threat. He further said that the U.S. Navy has systems, such as the
    Aegis missile defense system, that can counter the threat posed by the Chinese missile.

    The size of the missile, according to the U.S. Naval Institute, allows a warhead large enough to inflict
    significant damage on an American super carrier in a single strike, and it raises the chances of evading
    tracking systems and reaching its moving target unscathed in less than 12 minutes. In recent months, the
    U.S. Navy's strategy has shifted toward improving the capabilities of its deep-sea fleet and developing
    anti-ballistic defenses, the U.S. Naval Institute reports.




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Sudan is No. 2 military client of China
    World Tribune – April 3

    A Defense Department report has identified Sudan as the second leading military client of China. The
    report listed Pakistan and Sudan as the two top military customers of Beijing. They said Sudan received
    a significant portion of the nearly $7 billion worth of Chinese defense exports from 2003 through
    2007."Between 2004 and 2006, China made up an average of 90 percent of small arms sales to Sudan,"
    the report, titled "Military Power of the People's Republic of China 2009," said. China has acknowledged
    its military relationship with the Khartoum regime. Beijing has insisted that its military exports were not
    meant for the war-torn province of Darfour.




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Israel tests system to shoot down Iranian missiles
    Seattle Pi – April 7

    Israel successfully tested an anti-missile system designed to protect the country against Iranian attack,
    the Defense Ministry said, perfecting technology developed in response to failures of similar systems
    during the 1991 Gulf War. The intercept of a dummy missile was the 17th test of the Arrow system, a
    U.S.-Israeli joint venture. Israeli defense officials said the interceptor was an upgraded Arrow II, designed
    to counter Iran's Shahab ballistic missile.

    Israel has identified Iran as its biggest threat, citing the country's nuclear program and its development of
    long-range ballistic missiles. Those fears have been compounded by Iranian President Mahmoud
    Ahmadinejad's repeated calls for the destruction of the Jewish state.

    Israel believes Iran is developing nuclear weapons that could pose a threat to its existence. Iran denies
    that and says its nuclear work is for peaceful purposes such as energy production. Israel has threatened
    military action, and Iran has said it would strike back, warning last month that Israel's own nuclear
    facilities were within missile range.

    Iran's Shahab-3 missiles have a range of up to 1,250 miles (2,000 kilometers), putting Israel well within
    striking distance. Iranian officials were not available for comment on the Israeli test.

    In a statement, the Defense Ministry said the interceptor shot down "a missile simulating a ballistic threat
    in especially challenging conditions." It called the test "an important step in the development program and
    the development of operational abilities to counter the growing threat of ballistic missiles in the region."

    Defense Minister Ehud Barak watched Tuesday's intercept from a military helicopter, the ministry said.
    According to the Israeli Embassy in Washington, Pentagon representatives also were present.

    Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has made the Iranian threat a top priority of his administration,
    congratulated defense officials for the successful test. "While we are for peace, we will know how to
    defend ourselves," he said.

    In an interview Tuesday with CNN, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden was asked how worried he is that
    Israel, under Netanyahu, will launch a strike to take out Iran's nuclear facilities.

    "I don't believe that Prime Minister Netanyahu would do that," Biden said. "I think he would be ill-advised
    to do that. And so my level of concern is no different than it was a year ago."




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    The Arrow project is being developed by Israel Aerospace Industries Ltd. and Chicago-based Boeing Co.
    at a cost of more than $1 billion. It was spurred largely by the failure of the U.S. military's Patriot missiles
    to intercept Iraqi Scud rockets that struck Israel in the 1991 Gulf War.

    Several batteries of Arrow missiles are already operational. But Israel has been working to perfect the
    system to deal with increasingly complicated threats, such as missiles that strike at extremely high
    speeds from high altitudes and could split apart as they approach their targets.

    Iran has worked hard to increase the accuracy of its missiles. In November, it successfully test-fired the
    Sajjil, a solid fuel high-speed missile with a range 1,250 miles (2,000 kilometers). Solid fuel is considered
    a significant breakthrough because it increases accuracy.

    Rick Lehner, spokesman for the Pentagon's Missile Defense Agency, said the Arrow is meant to intercept
    short- and medium-range ballistic missiles.

    "This was the most advanced version of the Arrow weapons system in terms of the ability to perform the
    type of intercept that would be necessary to destroy a ballistic missile target," he said. He said that in
    conjunction with Patriot missiles, which strike at a lower altitude, Israel has "deployed a layered defense."

    Israel is also developing a system to counter short and medium range rockets of the kind possessed by
    Palestinian and Lebanese militants. The system, called the Iron Dome, is set to be deployed next year.

    The U.S. military has conducted separate tests in recent years of different components of the defensive
    shield, which is slated to include Patriot air defense batteries, anti-ballistic missiles launched from Navy
    ships and lasers mounted in planes designed to shoot down incoming missiles.

    Last month, the U.S. military's ground-based mobile missile defense system successfully shot down a
    medium-range ballistic missile during a test in Hawaii.

    It was the first time the military fired two interceptors at one target using the Terminal High Altitude Area
    Defense system, a program designed to shoot down ballistic missiles in their last stage of flight.

    The drill followed up on a test that was planned for last September but had to be aborted when the target
    malfunctioned shortly after launch.




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Unmanned Cargo Helo May Come To Afghanistan
    Defense News – April 8

    The Marine Corps wants a purpose-built unmanned cargo helicopter to re-supply its troops at isolated
    bases in Afghanistan, possibly within the year, a top requirements officer said April 8.

    The cargo helo would carry between 500 pounds and 1,000 pounds worth of food, water, ammunition
    and other staples, protecting human pilots from anti-aircraft fire and ground convoys from roadside
    bombs, said Brig. Gen. Andrew O'Donnell, capabilities development director for Marine Corps Combat
    Development Command.

    "There's lots of switchbacks, lots of danger on the roads of Afghanistan," O'Donnell said. Having an
    unmanned cargo robot could take "hundreds, or even thousands" of Marines off the roads, he said,
    lessening the danger that they'll encounter ambushes or roadside bomb attacks.

    O'Donnell spoke at a convention of the American Society of Naval Engineers outside Washington, D.C.;
    he told Marine Corps Times after his speech that several companies - and the Army - had expressed
    interest in the cargo helicopter. He said Marine Corps officials hoped they'd be able to field the helo in
    Afghanistan within the next two or three years, although he said it might be possible to have one as soon
    as a year from now.

    He also said it wouldn't surprise him if Taliban fighters in Afghanistan began firing more surface-to-air
    missiles at U.S. helicopters as more troops arrive in the coming years, as Iraqi insurgents did before the
    U.S. "surge." If that is the case, using unmanned re-supply helicopters would take human pilots out of
    danger, as well as the Marines and allied troops in convoys, O'Donnell said.




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    China Adds Precision Strike to Capabilities
    Aviation Week – April 8

    China has been developing and purchasing weapons for precision-strike warfare. This is the hard edge of
    the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) doctrinal drive toward using increasingly sophisticated information
    technologies such as C4ISR (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance
    and reconnaissance) to improve the capabilities of weapon systems (DTI March, p. 39). The PLA’s near-
    term goals appear to be greater asymmetric capabilities to target U.S. naval assets in the western Pacific
    and in space as part of an anti-access strategy. Long-term, however, greater precision will be a feature of
    most new weapon systems.

    China’s growing C4ISR capabilities were demonstrated in March by its coordinated two-fleet operation to
    intercept two U.S. Navy ocean survey vessels. Chinese ships found and harassed the USNS Victorious,
    operating in the Yellow Sea, and USNS Impeccable, which was about 75 mi. south of Hainan Island. The
    fallout was diplomatic, as Washington and Beijing clashed over interpretations of the Law of the Sea
    Treaty, which Beijing contends gives it rights to deny access to military survey missions. This incident,
    though, was reminiscent in timing and scope to the April 2001 clash that saw China “capture” a U.S.
    Navy EP-3 electronic intelligence aircraft off Hainan.

    China’s aggressive challenge of Japanese claims in the East China Sea, plus Washington’s refusal to
    cease its survey missions could be flashpoints. In February, a provincial Communist Party newspaper
    contained a threat to sink U.S. survey ships. In this second of three articles on China’s growing regional
    power, DTI examines the country’s efforts to improve its ability to target and destroy threats.

    Since the early 1990s, Chinese military scholars have been warning of the need for China to prepare to
    defend against, and if necessary, conduct military operations in space. In late 2006 reports emerged of
    China’s use of high-power ground-based lasers to “dazzle” U.S. surveillance satellites. On Feb. 11, 2007,
    China launched the first successful intercept by its SC-19 direct-ascent antisatellite (ASAT) system,
    derived from its KT-1 solid-fuel space-launch vehicle, with an interceptor stage whose development was
    likely aided by China’s micro-satellite programs. A target FY-2 weather satellite was probably illuminated
    by large phased-array radar developed for tracking Shenzhou manned space capsules. A far less-noted
    potential co-orbital ASAT demonstration occurred on Sept. 27, 2008, when the Shenzhou-7 manned
    spacecraft, which had just launched a BX-1 nanosatellite, passed within 45 km. (28 mi.) of the
    International Space Station. Following the U.S. Navy’s shootdown of an errant satellite on Feb. 21, 2008,
    and a Mar. 5, 2008, announcement that Russia would resume ASAT development, it is likely that China
    will continue ASAT testing.

    China’s direct-ascent ASAT also proves that it is capable of developing a long-range antiballistic missile
    (ABM) system, a U.S. pursuit that China has opposed. China had an ABM program from 1963-80 that
    produced a short-range interceptor prototype and long-range radar. Chinese sources told DTI at the

<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    recent IDEX expo in Abu Dhabi (see p. 16) that they have tested the new FD-2000 surface-to-air missile
    (SAM) in an antitactical ballistic missile (ATBM) mode. Developed with help from Russia’s Almaz-Antey
    Co., the FD-2000 also draws from the earlier passive-guided FT-2000 SAM, which reportedly benefited
    from U.S. Patriot SAM technology. These indigenous SAMs are entering PLA service, and will
    complement about 1,000 Almaz-Antey S-300/PMU-1/PMU-2 SAMs purchased since the early 1990s,
    giving the PLA air force the most formidable air-defense network in Asia. The PLA has also developed
    short-range SAM systems—including man-portable air-defense systems—for tracked vehicles and
    trucks. Among these is the TY-90 Yitian for trucks and armored personnel carriers that was disclosed in
    2005, but displayed for the first time at IDEX this year.

    Increasing precision is also the hallmark of new PLA surface-to-surface missiles and air-launched
    weapons. New Chinese nuclear ballistic missile warheads feature smaller sharp-tip warheads, signifying
    higher precision. One warhead configuration for the 12,000-km.-range DF-31A ICBM places at least one
    warhead on a delivery bus that is apparently capable of radical maneuvering to evade ABM defenses.

    Medium- and short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) are also being upgraded for greater precision. The
    U.S. and Japanese navies have long been concerned with the PLA program to create an antiship ballistic
    missile, by placing a maneuverable terminally guided warhead on the 2,400-km.-range DF-21, and likely,
    on the 600-km. DF-15. Asian military sources are also concerned that a new 3,000-km. version of the
    DF-21 may have multiple terminally guided warheads.

    An early 2009 Taiwanese estimate places the DF-15, DF-11 Mod2 and new land-attack cruise missiles
    (LACMs) of the second artillery missile force targeting Taiwan at more than 1,500, with newer versions
    having navigation satellite (navsat) guidance. In 2007 a Chinese source told DTI that the PLA will also be
    using two new shorter-range SRBMs, the truck-mounted 250-km. B-611M and 150-km. air-transportable
    P-12. Both are maneuverable, navsat-guided weapons with modular warheads. The PLA is also
    developing longer-range artillery rocket-based SRBMs, like the 200-km. navsat-guided WS-3. Some
    Chinese sources indicate that an antiradar or passive-guided 300-km. version of the WS series is
    possible.

    Asian sources say the PLA has developed two families of strategic-range LACMs: the DH-10, which
    equips new units of the Second Artillery, and YJ-62/C-602, which equips PLA navy destroyers and land-
    based antiship missile units, and is to be developed into an air-launched version for the PLA air force.
    The air force is expected to equip a new version of the 1950s-era Soviet Tupolev Tu-16 Badger bomber,
    the Xian H-6K, with the weapon. The H-6Ks modified with more powerful engines, now have a potential
    3,000-km. radius—enough to reach Guam. Rumors have long surrounded a potential long-range bomber
    program at Xian Aircraft Co., and a new stealthy version of Xian’s JH-7A fighter bomber is also in
    development.



<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Tactical combat aircraft in the PLA air force and navy are receiving new Russian and indigenously
    designed air-to-air and ground-attack weapons. The air force’s first Sukhoi Su-27SK fighters had the
    helmet-sighted Vympel R-73 missile a decade before the Raytheon AIM-9X entered U.S. service. The
    BVR self-guided Vympel R-77 followed the Su-30MKK into PLA service early this decade. But new
    Chengdu Aircraft Corp. J-10 and Shenyang Aircraft Corp. J-11B multirole fighters will carry air-to-air
    missiles designed by Luoyang Opto-Electric Co. (LOEC), which include the self-guided PL-12, thought to
    have a range approaching 100 km. in lofted delivery. Chinese sources also indicate LOEC is developing
    a high off-boresight air-to-air missile (AAM) similar to the South African Denel A-Darter, and a long-range
    ramjet-powered AAM.

    Russian Su-30s in PLA service have been equipped with several guided munitions, including the Zvezda
    Kh-31 antiradar and antiship ramjet missile, Zvezda Kh-59 interdiction missile and optical image-
    correlation-guided KAB series bombs. At the 2005 Moscow air show, a Russian source disclosed that
    Russia had assisted China’s development of electro-optical targeting pods, which have been
    photographed on J-10, JH-7A and some Hongdu Q-5 fighter-bombers. These will help guide two new
    families of laser- and navsat-guided bombs developed by LOEC and China Aerospace Science and
    Technology Corp. (CASC). The latter’s FT family includes the 500-kg. (1,100-lb.) FT-1 navsat-guided
    bomb, the FT-2, which adds range-extending wings, the 250-kg. FT-3 and the 100-kg. FT-5, which is
    reportedly comparable with Boeing’s Small Diameter Bomb. At last November’s Zhuhai air show, LOEC
    revealed a dual-optical navsat-guided bomb. CASC’s bombs can be expected to follow suit.

    Precision is being packed into smaller munitions like the new 45-kg. AR-1, a laser-guided missile
    designed for the CH-3 unmanned combat air vehicle (UCAV), similar in capability to the U.S. Predator-1.
    Guizhou Aircraft Co. has likely developed a larger turbofan UCAV comparable to the MQ-9 Predator-
    B/Reaper.

    Most of China’s new precision-strike systems are for sale. Pakistan and Iran have benefited from China’s
    ballistic and cruise missile technology, and from sales of conventional systems. Many more countries are
    likely to consider the $22-million Chengdu FC-1 and $41-million J-10 fighters, especially when equipped
    with precision-guided munitions like the PL-12 and FT-1. This form of power projection will soon be joined
    by the PLA’s increasing power-projection capabilities, the subject of the final installment.




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Beijing rejects China spy ring report as `lies'
    Google News – March 31

    China on Tuesday denied a research report's contention that a China-based computer spy ring stole
    sensitive information from thousands of hard drives worldwide, calling the accusation a lie meant to feed
    anxiety over Beijing's growing influence.

    In the government's first reaction to the report, Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said the
    conclusions were symptoms of a "Cold War virus" that causes people overseas to "occasionally be
    overcome by China-threat seizures."

    The report by the Information Warfare Monitor added to growing concerns that China has become a
    center for cyber-warfare, spying and crime. Industry watchdogs have complained about junk e-mail
    generated in China. Officials in the U.S., Britain and Germany have accused Chinese hackers backed by
    China's military of intruding into their government and defense computer networks.

    The Information Warfare Monitor report released Saturday said that a network, based mainly in China,
    hacked into classified documents from government and private organizations in 103 countries, including
    the computers of the Dalai Lama and his exiled Tibetan government.

    Speaking at a media briefing, Qin did not directly respond to questions about whether the network exists
    and if its actions are supported by the government. Instead, he said Beijing opposes criminal activities
    that compromise computer networks and criticized the report for claiming otherwise.

    "China pays great attention to computer network security and resolutely opposes and fights any criminal
    activity harmful to computer networks, such as hacking," Qin said. "Some people outside China now are
    bent on fabricating lies about so-called Chinese computer spies." "Their attempt to tarnish China with
    such lies is doomed to failure," he said.

    The Canadian report said that while evidence pointed to China as the main source of the network,
    researchers had not conclusively been able to determine the identity or motivation of the hackers.

    Experts have noted that China has 300 million Internet users and thus is home to many insecure
    computers and networks that hackers in other countries could hijack to disguise their locations and
    launch attacks.

    The Canadian group said its research initially focused on allegations of Chinese cyber espionage against
    the Tibetan exile community but eventually traced a much wider network of compromised machines.



<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    The Dalai Lama said Tuesday that private information on his government-in-exile's computers regularly
    seems to reach Chinese authorities. He said, for example, that China appears to know almost
    immediately when people have requested an appointment with him. "Before that particular person asks
    for Indian visa, the Chinese already (have) protested to the Indian government. Such things happen," he
    said. Thirty percent of the 1,295 hacked computers studied by the Canadian group were described by the
    report as "high-value diplomatic, political, economic, and military targets."

    It said the spying network, dubbed GhostNet, was able to take full control of infected computers, rifling
    files and even activating microphones and Web cameras to spy on people present.

    The sophistication and the focus on spying makes GhostNet sound more like traditional espionage rather
    than the nationalistic attacks carried out by Chinese hackers, said Jack Linchuan Qiu, a communications
    professor at Chinese University of Hong Kong. "Chinese hackers would hack the White House history
    Web site and put a Chinese flag on it," Qiu said. "That's the kind of thing individuals would do ... This
    really sounds like something more organized."

    Many Chinese hackers have a strong patriotic bent, unlike those in the United States and other Western
    countries who tend to belong to fringe cultures opposed to state power. Or it may be that only those
    hackers who are share the government's ideals survive. Authorities closely monitor the Internet for
    content deemed politically destabilizing, so perhaps hackers whose ideas are in line with the
    government's are avoiding punishment.

    Qiu, the communications professor, said he had heard of officials jailing Chinese hackers who break into
    computer systems of domestic banks in a bid to steal money or who infiltrate and vandalize government
    Web sites. "I've never seen people who are targeting — never mind if it's an individual or an organization
    — targeting a foreign computer arrested in mainland China," Qiu said.




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Conficker Worm springing into action
    Sun Media – April 1

    It's sophisticated and stealthy, a worm lying dormant worldwide in millions of infected computers awaiting
    the command to wreak havoc. Its name is Conficker C and experts say computers running a Microsoft
    operating system are in the crosshairs of a cyber criminal who will force infected machines to connect
    randomly to about 50,000 websites a day starting today.

    "This is no April Fool's joke," said Byron Holland, CEO of the Canadian Internet Registration Authority,
    which operates Canada's dot-ca domain name registry. Hi-tech experts know the when and the how of
    the worm -- April 1 and using Internet domain names.

    $250G REWARD

    But the why or the who remains a mystery, prompting Microsoft to put a $250,000 bounty out to catch the
    cyber crook who has created the newest online scourge. "There's absolutely no possibility that this won't
    happen. This is out in the wild. It is happening and the question is what can we do to mitigate it," said
    Holland. Computer users affected will see their machines slow down but nothing obvious in their
    Windows processes, said Christopher Davis, CEO of Defence Intelligence, an Ottawa-based information
    security firm. Computer users need to download security update patches of Microsoft's operating system
    and current anti-virus software to ward off the worm. Anti-virus software is trying to keep up but so far the
    detection rate has only been 20%, with the worm outpacing the remedies, said Davis. "Imagine if the flu
    virus was mutating every 15 hours," said Davis.

    CYBER-WARFARE TEST

    Over the past eight months, the Conficker A and B strains have disabled about 3 million computers but
    the worm's creator hasn't used it to hack into files, steal financial information or pull off other identify
    thefts. "It's really perplexing for us security folks because it's like 'What's he doing with this thing?' " said
    Davis. Some experts think the worm originates in eastern Europe, said Davis, while others believe the
    worm could be a government-sponsored test from a mystery country testing a "cyber-warfare kind of
    thing." Holland said the creator is no Mafiaboy, the Montreal hacker who brought down the websites of
    Yahoo!, Amazon.com and CNN in 2000. "Whoever created this, it wasn't some kid in their parents'
    basement trying to impress his buddies. This was created by very skilled, very sophisticated software
    engineers with multiple layers of offence and defence," said Holland.




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Cyber warfare a real-time threat
    The Australian – April 3

    The targets are both military and commercial, and the ambition is both to obtain secret information and to
    gain the ability, in the event of conflict, to sabotage or even disable key Western computer systems.
    There is also a considerable effort to infiltrate the computer systems that run Western infrastructure. The
    Chinese have identified the West's use of information technology as a key social and military strength,
    but they also see it as a key vulnerability. Sources suggest the Chinese effort is led by the PLA and
    involves tens of thousands of people.

    Australian defence and intelligence agencies, especially the Defence Signals Directorate and the
    Australian Security Intelligence Organisation, devote huge resources to countering this effort and
    ensuring that key Australian systems are secure. The Chinese efforts often involve elaborate
    mechanisms to disguise their origins, but Australian counter-efforts have been successful at establishing
    that the majority of the cyber attacks are Chinese in origin. Of course, the Chinese are not the only
    players in this field. The Russians are also active and some of their efforts are highly sophisticated, but
    they are not remotely on the scale of China. Defence analysts see the Chinese effort as especially
    directed at the US and its military systems in the Pacific. But they are also directed at US allies such as
    Australia.

    They are part of a huge Chinese "asymmetric" war effort. This is designed to identify strengths of the US
    and its allies, including Australia, and then cripple or degrade these strengths. The cyber espionage and
    sabotage efforts also have to be seen in the light of China's January 2007 military destruction of a
    satellite in orbit. The Chinese have identified satellite-based communications and guidance systems as a
    key to US, Australian and other Western war-fighting capabilities. They have developed an aggressive
    array of offensive capabilities to disrupt that strength. Both Washington and Canberra are deeply aware
    of the Chinese effort and devote massive resources to countering it. However, they are staggered by the
    huge, industrial scale of the Chinese cyber warfare effort.

    Some analysts also believe Western nations are handicapped in that they are basically always playing
    defence but never offence in this area. For every so often a Chinese cyber espionage effort is exposed
    and Beijing can blandly deny it, with its regular apologists explaining it away as the work of freelance
    hackers in China. If the US or allied governments were discovered doing the same to Chinese systems,
    the diplomatic consequences would likely be much more serious. The Chinese cyber offensive also
    targets Western corporations, as well as infrastructure. Corporations are targeted both for the strategic
    commercial information they possess and for specific technologies the Chinese seek to acquire. Although
    China is more diverse and liberal than it used to be, all such information is ultimately centralised and
    added to the national Chinese effort, both commercially and strategically. There is no similar Western
    effort. The need for cyber security against predominantly Chinese assaults will drive a great deal of
    technical effort within the relevant Australian agencies for a long time to come.

<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    U.S. Navy to Send More Forces To Combat Pirates
    Defense News – March 28

    The U.S. military on April 9 prepared to send in more forces into the Horn of Africa region in a stand-off
    with Somalia pirates holding an American hostage on a lifeboat in the Indian Ocean. A day after pirates
    hijacked the Maersk Alabama aid ship before being overpowered by the unarmed American crew, the
    high-seas drama remained unresolved with both the pirates and the U.S. Navy promising to move in
    reinforcements.

    After the four pirates were ousted from the 17,500-tonne Danish-operated container ship, they took the
    captain hostage on a lifeboat.

    More naval ships and other resources were being deployed to the area, a U.S. official told AFP, after the
    Navy sent in a destroyer and FBI negotiators to try to secure the release of the American.

    "The safe return of the captain is the top priority," Defense Secretary Robert Gates told reporters in
    Washington.

    The FBI said "negotiators stationed at Quantico [Virginia] have been called by the Navy to assist with
    negotiations with the Somali pirates and are fully engaged in this matter."

    Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the lifeboat was "apparently" out of fuel though military officials
    declined to confirm her account.

    A spokesman for the Maersk shipping company, Kevin Speers, told reporters that "most recent contact
    with the Alabama indicated that the captain remains a hostage but is unharmed at this time."

    Meanwhile the freighter was boarded by military personnel and the Alabama was headed to its
    destination port of Mombasa, in Kenya, with its cargo of aid destined for African refugees, U.S. and
    company officials said.

    The guided missile destroyer Bainbridge arrived overnight to monitor the situation and prevent the pirates
    from securing their hostage on a larger ship, accompanied by a P-3 Orion surveillance aircraft overhead.

    It was believed to be the first U.S. merchant ship hijacked since the North African Barbary Wars in the
    early 19th century, underlining the anarchy raging off Somalia despite an international naval effort against
    piracy.

    A commander from the group of pirates who took the ship said pirate reinforcements were on their way to
    try and help those holding the hostage, who are effectively surrounded.

<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    "We are planning to reinforce our colleagues who told us that a navy ship was closing in on them and I
    hope the matter will soon be solved," Abdi Garad told AFP by phone from the northern pirate lair of Eyl.

    "They are closely monitored by a navy ship and I think it will be difficult for us to reach the area promptly,"
    he admitted, with U.S. helicopters swirling the area.

    "But we are making final preparations and will try our best to save our friends."

    The Maersk Alabama's chief officer, Shane Murphy, told his father that the crew used "brute force" to
    overpower the pirates, who were armed with AK-47 assault rifles, ABC News reported.

    The attack was the latest in a string of incidents in the region, a vital global shipping lane where
    increasingly brazen pirates on small skiffs have hijacked anything from small sailing yachts to huge
    super-tankers.

    "These waters are infested with pirates that highjack (sic) ships daily," Murphy had written on his
    Facebook page recently. "I feel like it's only a matter of time before my number gets called."

    At any given time more than a dozen foreign naval vessels operate in the vast area in a bid to deter
    piracy.

    They include ships from a U.S. anti-piracy task force, a NATO force, a European Union mission as well
    as from China, India, Japan, Malaysia and Russia.

    The Maersk Alabama had been due to dock in the Kenyan port of Mombasa on April 16 to deliver more
    than 5,000 tons of relief food supplies to the United Nations World Food Program (WFP).

    "This is going to Africa to people in need. We're just bringing relief cargo," Maersk Line chief executive
    John Reinhart said.

    Over the past week, pirates have seized a German vessel, a small French sailing yacht, a British-owned
    Italian-operated cargo, a Taiwanese fishing vessel and a Yemeni tugboat.

    The flurry of attacks, one of the worst ever off the coast of Somalia, shattered a relative lull in hijackings
    since the start of the year which now appears to have owed more to weather than increased naval
    presence.




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    China: 2nd navy fleet to sail for Somali waters
    China Daily –March 31

    A second group of Chinese navy escort ships will set sail for the Gulf of Aden Thursday to replace a
    flotilla sent earlier to guard against pirates. The new task force will comprise the destroyer, Shenzhen,
    and frigate Huangshan, as well as the supply ship, Weishanhu, which served in the first escort mission.

    With two helicopters and total crew exceeding 800, including navy special forces, it is mainly tasked with
    ensuring the safety of Chinese vessels passing through the gulf and waters off Somalia and those of
    international organizations like the World Food Program shipping humanitarian goods. The flotilla will
    traverse 4,600 nautical miles, passing the Xisha and Nansha Islands, the Singapore Strait, the Strait of
    Malacca and the Indian Ocean before it arrives in the Gulf of Aden.

    China initiated its three-ship escort task force on December 26 last year after the United Nations Security
    Council called on countries to patrol gulf and waters off Somalia, one of the world's busiest marine
    routes, where surging piracy endangered intercontinental shipping. The ships had escorted 104 vessels
    and rescued three foreign merchant ships from pirate attacks, Huang Jiaxiang, political commissar of the
    Navy's South China Sea Fleet, said in a March 11 interview. About 20 percent of Chinese merchant ships
    passing through the waters off Somalia were attacked by pirates from January to November in 2008,
    before the task force was deployed. A total of seven ships, either owned by China or carrying Chinese
    cargo and crew, were hijacked. Tianyu No. 8, a Chinese fishing vessel with 16 Chinese (including one
    from Taiwan) and eight foreign sailors aboard, was captured by Somali pirates on November 14 last year
    and released in early February.




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Japan: MSDF begins antipiracy mission off Somalia; escorts 5 ships
    Japan Today – March 31

    Japanese destroyers began their antipiracy mission off the coast of Somalia on Monday, marking the
    start of the first such mission abroad for the Japanese Self-Defense Forces, the Defense Ministry said.
    The Maritime Self-Defense Force’s 4,650-ton Sazanami and 4,550-ton Samidare began escorting three
    automobile carriers and two tankers—all operated by Japanese firms—in the pirate-infested Gulf of
    Aden, it said.

    The Japanese ships gathered on the eastern end of the gulf to move westward to the Red Sea over a
    distance of some 900 kilometers as MSDF patrol helicopters keep watch from the sky, the ministry said.
    The escort is expected to take about two days to complete. The MSDF destroyers left their base in Kure,
    Hiroshima Prefecture, on March 14, the day after Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada ordered their
    dispatch under the pretext of the maritime police action provision of the Self-Defense Forces Law.

    Under the provision, the SDF can protect only Japan-linked ships, such as Japanese-registered vessels,
    foreign-registered ships with Japanese nationals or shipments on board and others operated by
    Japanese firms.

    In accordance with the execution of police duties law, the provision also allows weapons to be used
    against pirates only in limited circumstances, such as for self-defense.

    To better deal with pirate threats, the Japanese government has submitted a bill to parliament that would
    loosen restrictions on the use of weapons and authorize the SDF to protect any ships, regardless of their
    Japanese connections.




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Indonesia, India to intensify security precautions in Andaman Waters
    ANTARA News – April 3

    Indonesia and India will intensify security in Andaman`s territorial waters in anticipation of security
    disturbances in the region. Spokesman for the Military (TNI) headquarters in Jakarta Rear Marshal
    Sagom Tamboen said here on Thursday that by doing so, all kinds of threats including those posed by
    the entry of Tamil Tiger rebels into Indonesia could be prevented. "Till now, the security situation in the
    Andaman sea is still conducive, as no Tamil tiger rebels had entered Indonesia thanks to regular joint
    patrols in the waters," he said.

    Code-named Indindocorpat, the joint patrol was held twice a year under a protocol signed by the navies
    of the two countries. The first Indindocorpat was held in September 2002 and at least nine joint patrols
    had been conducted by the two countries. According to the two sides, the patrol was proven to have
    benefited the two countries in dealing with piracy, smuggling, territorial transgression and inter-state
    crime in the Andaman sea.

    Earlier, Indonesia pledged to the Sri Lankan government that its territory would not be used by Tamil tiger
    rebels. The guaranty was conveyed by Foreign Minister Hassan Wirajuda during his visit to Sri Lanka on
    March 29-30, 2009. A spokesman for the Foreign Ministry, Teuku Faizasyah during a meeting in
    Grosvenor House of JW Marriot Hotel in London on Tuesday said that so far there was no precedence or
    report on activities of Tamil tigers in Indonesia. However, the Sri Lankan government asked Indonesia to
    prevent the Tamil tiger fighters to enter its territory for military training purposes.




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Malaysians Want Nuclear Weapons Eliminated
    Bernama – March 31

    More than 300 of the world's top physicians, including some from Malaysia, have called on US President
    Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitri Medvedev to end the nuclear weapons era. Through the
    International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War (IPPNW), they called on both presidents to
    lead the world by starting negotiations on Nuclear Weapons Convention that would abolish all nuclear
    weapons. "A world without nuclear weapons is now championed by experts and diplomats across the
    political spectrum," said IPPNW past president Datuk Dr R. S. McCoy in a statement. Among the
    signatories from Malaysia are former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, Malaysian Medical
    Association president Datuk Dr Khoo Kah Lin, Master of the Academy of Medicine, Malaysia Prof Victor
    Lim and Dr McCoy. Obama and Medvedev are scheduled to meet in London tomorrow on the eve of the
    G-20 Summit which will discuss nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation measures. IPPNW is an
    international medical organisation dedicated to preventing nuclear war and abolishing nuclear weapons.




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Energy Department Finishes Huge Laser for Nuclear-Weapon Research
    Global Security Newswire – March 31

    The U.S. Energy Department has certified the world's most powerful laser to begin operations, primarily
    to ensure the reliability of the nation's nuclear weapons, the agency announced today (see GSN, Dec.
    11, 2007). The National Ignition Facility at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California is
    designed to focus 192 lasers on tiny targets to create the pressures and temperatures needed for nuclear
    fusion (U.S. Energy Department release, March 31). "It's now operational," NIF project director Edward
    Moses told the Associated Press. "The lasers are there. The targets are there and we've proven the
    optics. But now the proof is in the shooting. We've got to put all this together and shoot the targets. It's
    the first time anyone has ever done experiments at this scale" (Josef Hebert, Associated Press/Google
    News, March 30). Scientists plan to start with smaller operations before testing all 192 lasers at full power
    sometime this summer, Chemical and Engineering News reported. The facility is designed in part to
    support research into materials science and the fundamentals of planets and stars, but its key role is to
    support the Stockpile Stewardship Program of guaranteeing the effectiveness of the U.S. nuclear arsenal
    (see GSN, March 2). "In the era of stewardship, when we have to certify the safety and reliability of the
    stockpile without nuclear testing, it puts a large challenge on us to have a better fundamental
    understanding of how nuclear weapons work," said Mordecai Rosen, a Lawrence Livermore physicist
    (Jyllian Kemsley, Chemical and Engineering News, March 30).




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Russia to Conduct ICBM Test Next Week
    Global Security Newswire – March 31

    Russia plans to flight-test an ICBM next week to confirm the weapon's reliability, the strategic missile
    forces announced yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 5). Technicians intend to launch an RS-12M Topol missile,
    known in the West as the SS-25, on April 10 from the nation's space center at Plesetsk. The silo-based,
    single-warhead Topol is scheduled to be gradually replaced by a mobile, multiple-warhead version over
    the next 10 years, RIA Novosti reported. "The goal of the upcoming launch is to confirm the reliability of
    the technical characteristics (of the missile) during an extended service period," said the SMF
    announcement (RIA Novosti, March 30).




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Obama Urges Nuclear Arms Reduction
    The New York Times – April 5

    Declaring the future of mankind at stake, President Barack Obama on Sunday said all nations must strive
    to rid the world of nuclear arms and that the U.S. had a ''moral responsibility'' to lead because no other
    country has used one. A North Korean rocket launch upstaged Obama's idealistic call to action, delivered
    in the capital of the Czech Republic, a former satellite of the Soviet Union. But Obama dismissed those
    who say the spread of nuclear weapons, ''the most dangerous legacy of the Cold War,'' cannot be
    checked.

    ''This goal will not be reached quickly -- perhaps not in my lifetime,'' he told a cheering crowd of more
    than 20,000 in the historic square outside the Prague Castle gates. We ''must ignore the voices who tell
    us that the world cannot change. We have to insist, 'Yes, we can.''' Few experts think it's possible to
    completely eradicate nuclear weapons, and many say it wouldn't be a good idea even if it could be done.
    Even backward nations such as North Korea have shown they can develop bombs, given enough time.

    But a program to drastically cut the world atomic arsenal carries support from scientists and lions of the
    foreign policy world. Obama embraced that step as his first goal and chose as the venue for his address
    a nation that peacefully threw off communism and helped topple the Soviet Union, despite its nuclear
    power.

    But he said his own country, with its huge arsenal and its history using two atomic bombs against Japan
    in 1945, had to lead the world. He said the U.S. has a ''moral responsibility'' to start taking steps now. ''To
    reduce our warheads and stockpiles, we will negotiate a new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty with the
    Russians this year,'' he promised.

    The nuclear-free cause is more potent in Europe than in the United States, where even Democratic
    politicians such as Obama must avoid being labeled as soft or naive if they endorse it. Still, Obama said
    he would resubmit a proposed Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty to the Senate for ratification. The pact
    was signed by President Bill Clinton but rejected by the Senate in 1999.

    While espousing long-term goals, Obama took care to promise that America would not lower its defenses
    while others are pursuing a nuclear threat. He warned both North Korea, which has tested a nuclear
    weapon, and Iran, which the West says is developing one, that the world was against them.

    Obama gave his most unequivocal pledge yet to proceed with building a missile defense system in
    Europe, so long as Iran pursues nuclear weapons, a charge it denies. That shield is to be based in the
    Czech Republic and Poland. Those countries are on Russia's doorstep, and the missile shield has
    contributed to a significant decline in U.S.-Russia relations.


<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    In the interest of resetting ties with Moscow, Obama previously had appeared to soft-pedal his support for
    the Bush-era shield proposal. But he adopted a different tone in Prague. ''As long as the threat from Iran
    persists, we will go forward with a missile defense system that is cost-effective and proven,'' Obama said,
    earning cheers from the crowd. Hours before the address, an aide awoke Obama in his hotel room to tell
    him that North Korea had make good on its pledge to launch a long-range rocket. By lunchtime, the
    president had addressed it publicly nearly half a dozen times.

    ''Rules must be binding,'' he said. ''Violations must be punished. Words must mean something.'' ''Now is
    the time for a strong international response,'' he said. After the speech and a round of private meetings
    with foreign leaders, Obama arrived in Turkey, the final stop of his trip.

    On the broader anti-nuclear issue, more than 140 nations have ratified the Comprehensive Test Ban
    Treaty. But 44 states that possess nuclear technology need to both sign and ratify it before it can take
    effect and only 35 have do so. The United States is among the holdouts, along with China, Egypt, India,
    Indonesia, Iran, Israel, North Korea, and Pakistan. Ratification was one of several ''concrete steps''
    Obama outlined as necessary to move toward a nuclear-free world. He also called for reducing the role of
    nuclear weapons in American national security strategy and seeking a new treaty to end the production
    of fissile materials used in nuclear weapons.

    Obama said the U.S. will seek to strengthen the nuclear nonproliferation treaty by providing more
    resources and authority for international inspections and mandating ''real and immediate consequences''
    for countries that violate the treaty. He offered few details of how he would accomplish his larger goal and
    acknowledged that ''in a strange turn of history, the threat of global nuclear war has gone down, but the
    risk of a nuclear attack has gone up.''




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    North Korean Missile Launch Was a Failure, Experts Say
    The Wall Street Journal – April 5

    North Korea failed in its highly vaunted effort to fire a satellite into orbit, military and private experts said
    Sunday after reviewing detailed tracking data that showed the missile and payload fell into the sea. Some
    said the failure undercut the North Korean campaign to come across as a fearsome adversary able to
    hurl deadly warheads halfway around the globe.

    Defying world opinion, North Korea in recent weeks had moved steadily and fairly openly toward
    launching a long-range rocket that Western experts saw as a major step toward a military weapon. The
    launching itself of the three-stage rocket on Sunday, which the North Korean government portrayed as a
    success — even bragging that the supposed satellite payload was now broadcasting patriotic tunes from
    space — outraged Japan and South Korea, led to widespread rebuke by President Obama and other
    leaders, and prompted the United Nations Security Council to go into an emergency session.

    But looking at the launching from a purely technical vantage point, space experts said the failure
    represented a blow that in all likelihood would seriously delay the missile’s debut.

    “It’s got to be embarrassing,” said Geoffrey E. Forden, a missile expert at the Massachusetts Institute of
    Technology. “I can imagine heads flying if the ‘Dear Leader’ finds out the satellite didn’t fly into orbit,” he
    said, referring to the name North Koreans are obliged to use when speaking of Kim Jong-il, North Korea’s
    reclusive leader. North Korea’s official news agency said Mr. Kim attended the launching.

    Analysts dismissed the idea that the rocket firing could represent a furtive success, calling the failure
    consistent with past North Korean fumbles and suggesting it might reveal a significant quality control
    problem in one of the world’s most isolated nations.

    “It’s a setback,” Jonathan McDowell, a Harvard astronomer who tracks satellites and rocket launchings,
    said of the North Korean launching. He added that the North Koreans must now find and fix the problem.
    “The missile doesn’t represent any kind of near-term threat.” Others said North Korea’s client states, like
    Iran, seemed to be having more success at rocketry than North Korea. In February, Iran managed to
    launch a small satellite into orbit.

    The United States Northern Command, based in Colorado Springs, issued a statement on Sunday that
    portrayed the launching as a major failure. It based its information on a maze of federal radars, spy ships
    and satellites that monitor global missile firings.

    The command said that North Korea launched a Taepodong-2 missile at 11:30 a.m. Sunday local time, or
    10:30 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Saturday, and that its first stage fell into the Sea of Japan, which
    analysts had expected as the point of splashdown in a successful launching.

<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    However, “the remaining stages, along with the payload itself, landed in the Pacific Ocean,” the
    statement said. Analysts had expected the rocket’s second stage to land in the Pacific but its third stage
    and its ostensible satellite payload to fly into space.

    The command emphasized that “no object entered orbit,” apparently a reference to both the rocket’s third
    stage as well as the supposed satellite.

    North Korea’s public portrayal of the event as a complete success was similar in its celebratory tone to
    the happy note it struck in 1998 after having failed to loft a satellite into orbit.

    News reports out of Japan also said the rocket’s second stage splashed down in the Pacific, hundreds of
    miles short of the danger zone that North Korea announced last month. Western analysts said that
    shortfall, if correct, probably indicated a failure of the missile’s second stage.

    A general rule of engineering is that failures reveal more than successes. If so, North Korea — which has
    now test-fired three long-range rockets, each time unsuccessfully — is learning a lot about limitations.

    “It’s not unusual to have a series of failures at the beginning of a missile program,” Jeffrey G. Lewis, an
    arms control specialist at the New America Foundation, a research group in Washington, said in an
    interview. “But they don’t test enough to develop confidence that they’re getting over the problems.”

    Dr. Lewis added that an influential 1998 report by Donald H. Rumsfeld, before he became secretary of
    defense in the Bush administration, argued that the North Korean rockets might be good enough to pose
    a threat to the United States, even without flight testing. “But given that both versions of the Taepodong-2
    have failed now,” he said, “we have very little confidence in the reliability of the system.”

    North Korea is often portrayed as technically adept when it comes to bombs and rockets. But Western
    analysts say that image is now in doubt amid rising questions of basic competence.

    In August 1998, North Korea’s first attempt at launching a long-range rocket, the Taepodong-1, managed
    to scare Japan but failed to deliver a satellite to orbit. The troubles continued in July 2006 when its
    second test of a long-range missile, the Taepodong-2, ended in an explosion just seconds after liftoff.

    And in October 2006, North Korea conducted an explosive test of a nuclear device inside a remote
    mountain tunnel. Many intelligence analysts judged it to be a fizzle that barely shook the ground. The test
    nonetheless raised fears that North Korea would seek to develop a nuclear warhead compact enough to
    fit atop a missile.




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    The current situation was different from past ones in that North Korea announced its rocket intentions
    weeks before the test firing, giving the International Maritime Organization coordinates at sea where it
    expected the first and second stages to splash down.

    Western analysts called the missile launching a military endeavor, despite North Korea’s contention that
    its payload was for purely civilian purposes.

    Dennis C. Blair, the director of national intelligence, told reporters last month, “North Korea is attempting
    to demonstrate an ICBM capability through a space launch.” He added, “Most of the world understands
    the game they are playing.”

    David C. Wright, a senior scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists, a private group in Cambridge,
    Mass., estimated that the rocket, if eventually successful, might lead to a ballistic missile that could throw
    a warhead of 2,200 pounds a distance of some 3,700 miles, far enough to hit parts of Alaska.

    He added that if the warhead’s weight could be cut in half, down to 1,100 pounds, the rocket would be
    able to hurl the weapon much farther, about 5,600 miles. That, in theory, would bring the West Coast of
    the continental United States within its range.

    But Dr. Wright noted that developing a miniaturized warhead “is likely to be a significant challenge for
    North Korea,” so that the rocket, even if successful, would “not represent a true intercontinental nuclear
    delivery capability.”

    In an interview, he said the weekend test appeared to be less of a failure than the 2006 rocket attempt,
    and that it might provide useful information about how to make improvements.

    But Dr. Wright said the string of rocket failures over the past decade might indicate serious quality control
    problems. If so, North Korea may simply have “recurring problems in how they manufacture things,”
    which may prove hard to fix.

    He added that the rocket’s failure might “open a window of opportunity” for the Obama administration to
    engage the North Koreans in disarmament talks.




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Seoul considers joining anti-WMD proliferation plan
    Joong Ang Daily – April 07

    Despite fierce opposition by the North, South Korea says it is actively considering joining the U.S.-led
    Proliferation Security Initiative to take part in the international efforts to stop the transfer of weapons of
    mass destruction.

    Following North Korea’s Sunday launch of a long-range rocket, President Lee Myung-bak held a
    breakfast meeting with leaders of the country’s three main political parties yesterday and discussed the
    issue.

    “Participating in the PSI has been reviewed in terms of Korea’s international cooperation to stop
    proliferation of WMDs and to fight terrorism, unrelated to North Korea’s rocket launch,” President Lee
    was quoted as saying in the meeting by Blue House spokesman Lee Dong-kwan. “We are actively
    considering joining it.”

    The decision to join the PSI will be made independently, apart from the North’s rocket launch, the
    president was quoted as saying. “The president explained that it is not a matter of us joining the initiative
    immediately because the North fired the rocket, nor postponing the decision if the rocket had not been
    launched,” Lee Dong-kwan said. “That is the government’s official position.”

    The Proliferation Security Initiative is an international regime led by Washington to interdict weapons of
    mass destruction, their means of delivery and related material. The international partnership was
    announced in 2003 by then-U.S. President George W. Bush.

    Under the initiative, the United States and its allies intercept and inspect planes and ships in international
    waters suspected of carrying illegal weapons or missile systems. As of now, 94 countries are members of
    the program.

    North Korea has condemned the PSI, warning that the South’s participation will be regarded as a
    declaration of war. While the previous liberal administrations in Seoul were reluctant to join the program,
    the Lee administration is more positive about participation. According to the Blue House, politicians were
    split over the issue.

    “Lee Hoi-chang, head of the Liberty Forward Party, said Korea must enthusiastically participate, while
    Chung Sye-kyun, head of the Democratic Party, said we should be more cautious about it,” Lee Dong-
    kwan said.

    Along with the two opposition party leaders, Grand National Chairman Park Hee-tae attended the
    meeting. Lee was accompanied by the Blue House’s senior secretary for foreign affairs and national

<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    security. The politicians were briefed about the North’s rocket launch, consultation among concerned
    nations and Korea’s assessment on the North’s failed attempt to put a satellite into orbit.

    Shortly after the Blue House meeting, Chung repeated his position about Korea’s plan to join the PSI. “I
    think the government and other parties are agreeing to Korea’s participation in the PSI,” Chung said at
    the party’s Supreme Council meeting. “But the Democratic Party’s position is that the matter must be
    decided more cautiously. I told the president it is necessary to manage the situation smoothly bit by bit,
    rather than ratcheting up tensions with North Korea.”

    While discussion at the UN Security Council to punish the North for its long-range rocket launch was
    stalled, Seoul’s decision on joining the PSI has emerged as a key issue at the National Assembly. Once
    the decision is made, participating in the PSI will proceed quickly, because it does not require legislative
    approval.

    Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan repeated yesterday the president’s position before the lawmakers. “The
    government is actively considering joining the PSI, and we are not hesitating,” Yu said. “How North Korea
    will react is nothing for us to be concerned about.”

    DP Representative Song Min-soon, who served as the foreign minister for the Roh administration from
    2006 to 2008, disagreed. “China has opposed the PSI, and the move will escalate unnecessary tensions
    surrounding the Korean Peninsula. It is not a card to be played at this point,” Song said. “We must be
    more prudent about it.”

    In addition to the debate over South Korea’s joining of the PSI, the nation’s leaders also argued about
    who should be responsible for the North’s latest series of provocations and frozen inter-Korean relations.
    According to the Blue House, Lee told the political leaders that he is not a hawk. “I want to handle the
    North Korean issues pragmatically,” the president was quoted as saying. “Normalizing inter-Korean
    relations will benefit both Koreas.”

    Liberty Forward Party spokeswoman Park Sun-young said Chung of the Democratic Party was critical of
    the Lee administration for the current inter-Korean deadlock. President Lee, in turn, said the past two
    liberal administrations were actually responsible, Park said.




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Ahmadinejad: Iran ready to contribute to global disarmament
    Zawya – April 8

    President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Wednesday that Iran is ready to contribute to global
    disarmament. President made the remarks in a meeting with families of martyrs in Isfahan on
    Wednesday. Iranian resistance urged some big powers to change their literature in dealing with Iran, he
    said adding, "We are ready to cooperate with those claiming to manage global disarmament." He added,
    "We are ready to handle such a big task based on rules and regulations and the big countries are the
    priorities (for this)."
    The motto of global disarmament is a correct word but not for creating obstacles for those who wish to
    use nuclear fuel for peaceful purposes, he said. The idea of global disarmament will be promoted
    worldwide very soon, underlined the Iranian president. All praise the Iranian culture and civilizations and
    believe that the country should play a vital role at the highest level in global developments, he said
    adding that under such circumstances no one can dare to threat Iran. "Some claim that they have given
    us incentives to continue our progress but we tell them these are not incentives, we have attained these
    success through the sacrifice of our people," he said. On recent comments such as "We are to stretch
    our sincere and friendship hands to Iran," he said the issue calls for discussion because this is not an
    incentive but it is the resistance of the Iranian nation which was the root cause of such offer." Iranian
    nation has always remained victorious, he said. Iranians seek dialogue based on justice, mutual respect
    and dignity, underlined the president. Culture of sacrifice, revolution and martyrdom-seeking has now
    engulfed the world like a wave, said President Ahmadinejad.




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    Iran Claims Gains in Nuclear Program
    The New York Times – April 9

    Iran inaugurated its first nuclear fuel manufacturing plant on Thursday and said it had increased its
    capability to enrich uranium. The developments came a day after the United States said it would
    participate in talks with Iran and other nations over Tehran’s nuclear program.

    Iran’s president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, helped open the plant in the central city of Isfahan as Iran
    celebrated National Nuclear Day, begun three years ago when Iran announced for the first time that it
    had succeeded in enriching uranium. The plant is now producing nuclear fuel for the country’s 40-
    megawatt research reactor in Arak. The uranium for Arak requires no enrichment before engineers turn it
    into fuel rods, setting it apart from most reactors.

    In February, the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna reported that the Isfahan plant was
    already making fuel even before the plant’s formal dedication.

    The National Nuclear Day activities also brought a new disclosure: Gholamreza Aghazadeh, the head of
    the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization, said Iran had increased the number of its centrifuges to 7,000. In
    February, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations nuclear regulator, put the number
    at 5,600.

    On Thursday, the State Department spokesman, Robert Wood, said Iran’s claims of nuclear advances
    could be viewed “with skepticism.”

    Centrifuges are machines that spin rapidly to enrich uranium. Highly enriched uranium can be used for
    making nuclear bombs, but Iran says it is enriching uranium to lower levels in order to produce nuclear
    fuel for civilian use. The United States and several other countries believe Iran is pursuing a clandestine
    weapons program under the guise of a civilian one, a charge Tehran denies.

    Iran has faced three sets of United Nations Security Council sanctions for refusing to halt its enrichment
    program. Mr. Ahmadinejad said during a speech broadcast on national television that Iran had achieved
    its nuclear progress under “the worst political and psychological pressure, even the threat of military
    invasion.” “But now the situation has changed in the world,” he said. “Today the whole world knows that
    Iranian people seek justice and they will pursue their goals despite their enemies’ pressure.”

    In what appeared to be a reference to the United States, Mr. Ahmadinejad said that “they” had declared
    their willingness to hold talks with Iran. In a policy shift, Washington said Wednesday that it would be
    willing to meet with five other world powers — Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany — and Iran
    over its nuclear program. Mr. Ahmadinejad responded that Iran would participate in the meeting if the
    talks were based on “respect,” but added that countries that had nuclear weapons should first embark on

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Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.
                                           révolutionnaire
                                           08/2009                                  30 Mar 09 – 10 Apr 09


    abolishing them. “Our position is clear,” he said. “Talks should be based on justice, respect for rights and
    regulations. Justice means both sides are treated equally and their rights are respected.” An adviser to
    the president, Ali Akbar Javanfekr, told reporters on Thursday that Iran would study the proposal and
    respond. “We hope that this proposal means a change of approach to a more realistic attitude,” Agence
    France-Presse quoted him as saying.




<< Return to the Contents Page


Articles from subscriber only sites are available on request. Révolutionnaire is edited by Ho Shu Huang and Kalyan M.
Kemburi with contributions from Bernard Loo and Joshua Ho. The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (IDSS) is a key
research component of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). It focuses on security research to serve
national needs. IDSS' faculty and research staff conduct both academic and policy-oriented research on security-related
issues and developments affecting Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific. Its research agenda presently comprises the
following programmes: Maritime Security, the Revolution in Military Affairs, Multilateralism and Regionalism, Contemporary
Islam, Indonesia and China.

				
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