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MMS Alaska Region Presentation - OCS Advisory Board

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MMS Alaska Region Presentation - OCS Advisory Board Powered By Docstoc
					                   Overview
MMS Offshore Alaska Program
    Getting Back to the Resources



              AAPL OCS Workshop
             The Woodlands, Texas




                                  John Goll
           U.S. Minerals Management Service
                               January 2004
   Today’s Topics
• Access
  – Lease Sales
     • Beaufort Sea
     • Cook Inlet
   – Economic
     Incentives
• North Aleutian
  Basin
• Permitting
• Info Sources
             Alaska OCS Potential
    (Risked, Undiscovered, Conventionally Recoverable)
                  Low to High Estimates
                               Oil              Gas
                           billions barrels      TCF

•   Alaska OCS Total        17 - 35           55 - 227
•   Chukchi                   9 - 25          14 - 154
•   Beaufort                  4 - 12          13 - 63
•   Hope                      0 - 0.3           0 - 11
•   Norton                    0 - 0.2           0- 9
•   Cook Inlet              0.3 - 1.4         0.7 - 2.5

             »               (MMS 2000 National Assessment)
      Access: The OCS 5 Year Plan
           2002-2007-- Alaska

• Traditional Sales
   – Beaufort Sea
      • 2003, 2005, 2007
   – Cook Inlet
      • 2004, 2006


• Interest Based Sales
   – (annual calls)
   – Chukchi Sea/Hope
     Basin
      • Up to 2 sales
   – Norton Basin
      • 1 sale
Beaufort Sea Sale 186   September 2003
                                              Beaufort
                                                Sea
                                              Economic
                                             Incentives
• Royalty Suspension
  volumes/per lease           •   Royalty rate   12.5%
   – Up to 30 or 45 Million   •   Primary Term   10 years
     barrels, (depending on   •   Minimum bid    $15/$10
     Zone A or B)
   – With price floor
                              •   Rental rate    sliding
     $18/barrel                    $3 – 12.50/acre (Zone A)
   – With price ceiling            $1 – 8/acre (Zone B)
     ($28/barrel 1994
     inflation adjusted)
                                           BEAUFORT SEA PROGRAM AREA
                     156°                   154°               152°            150°           148°              146°                  144°               142°               140°




                                                                                                                                                                                            TATES
                                                                            BEAUFORT SEA




                                                                                                                                                                                        CANADA
       Barrow                                                                 2002-2007
                                                                            PROGRAM AREA                  HAMMERHEAD




                                                                                                                                                                                     UNITED S
                                CABOT
                                                                                                          100-200+ MMBO
                                                                                                   (Reservoir Not Fully Delineated)
             BARROW
                                                    FIREWEED                                                                                 KUVLUM
             51 BCFG
                                                                                                                                         160-300+ MMBO
        WALAKPA      SIMPSON                  ANTARES                                                                             (Reservoir Not Fully Delineated)
        32 BCFG                                                ORION              SANDPIPER
                     12 MMBO                                                        45 MMBO
                                                                          MILNE PT/
                                                                                        NORTHSTAR
                                                                MARS     SCHRADER
                              SIMPSON                                                    176 MMBO
                                                                           BLUFF                                            GALAHAD
                              OIL SEEPS                           MUKLUK                    PT MCINTYRE
                                                                                                 NIAKUK
                                                                       PHOENIX
                                                                                                    LIBERTY                                                              BELCHER
       Atqasuk                                                                                     120 MMBO                                           Kaktovik
                                                                                                                                       CORONA             AURORA
                                                  FISH CREEK    ALPINE                                                                                                                                 70
                                                               500 MMBO
70°    National Petroleum                                      Nuiqsut                PRUDHOE ENDICOTT BADAMI
                                                                          KUPARUK     12.8 BBO 582 MMBO
        Reserve - Alaska                                                   2.7 BBO                      POINT                          K.I.C. Lands
                                                                                                                                                         KAKTOVIK
                                                                                                      THOMSON
                                                                                                      400 MMBO           1002 AREA                        INUPIAT
                                                                                                                                                        CORP. (KIC) 1
                                                  SQUARE LAKE
                                                    58 BCFG
                                                                                                             KAVIK




                                                                                                                                                                            UNITED
                                                      UMIAT         GUBIK
          MAP LOCATION                    WOLF       70 MMBO       600 BCFG
                                                                                                                               Arctic National




                                                                                                                                                                                CANADA
           BEAUFORT SEA                   CREEK                                                         KEMIK

                                                         EAST UMIAT
                                                           4 BCFG
                                                                                                                               Wildlife Refuge




                                                                                                                                                                                    STATES
                ALASKA



                                                                                                              0                       50                   100
                    PACIFIC
                    OCEAN
                                                                                                                                                                 MILES
                                                                                                                     0                50          100
                                                                                                                                                        KILOMETERS

         156°                         154°                152°                 150°              148°                  146°                   144°                       142°                       140°

                                                                                            EXPLANATION
                                   EXPLORATION WELL, PLUGGED                  MMBO     MILLIONS OF BARRELS OF OIL, RECOVERABLE
                                                                                                                                                                 2002-2007 PROGRAM AREA
                                   AND ABANDONED                                                                                                                 WITHIN OCS PLANNING AREA
       UMIAT                                                                   BBO     BILLIONS OF BARRELS OF OIL, RECOVERABLE
      70 MMBO                     OIL FIELD
                                                                              BCFG     BILLIONS OF CUBIC FEET OF GAS, RECOVERABLE
       GUBIK                                                                                                                                                     OCS PLANNING AREA
                                  GAS FIELD
      600 BCFG                                                                TCFG     TRILLIONS OF CUBIC FEET OF GAS, RECOVERABLE
                                                                              Beaufort Sea
                                       Undiscovered Oil Pools for Beaufort Sea Planning Area                                             Undiscovered Gas Pools for Beaufort Sea Planning Area
                                                                                                                                                    (Non-Associated and Gas Cap)

                                                 Largest Pool                                                                                       Largest Pool
                                                 Mean = 1,021 Mmbo                                                                                  Mean = 6,908 Bcfg
Pool Resources (Millions of Barrels)




                                                 Range F95-F05 = 53-3,831 Mmbo                                                                      Range F95-F05 = 836-22,163 Bcfg




                                                                                               Pool Resources (Billions of Cubic Feet)
                                                             F25
                                                                                                                                                                  F25
                                                               Mean
                                                                                                                                                                      Mean



                                                                   F75                                                                                          F75




                                                             Pool Rank (N = 158)
                                                                                                                                                                   Pool Rank (N = 250)
Beaufort Sea Planning Area        Oil (billion barrels)  Gas (trillion cubic ft)
CRR                               3.6 - 6.9 - 11.8       12.9 – 32.1 – 63.3
ECR ($18/bbl; $2.11/mcf)          0.0 - 1.8 - 6.6         0.0 – 2.9 – 9.7
ECR ($30/bbl; $3.52/mcf)          1.0 - 3.2 - 7.8         0.6 – 4.2 - 10.7
Beaufort Sea models assume that oil is transported through TAPS and on to
West Coast markets. Natural gas produced with oil would be reinjected for
enhanced oil recovery until oil depletion and then produced and transported by
a future gas pipeline to outside markets.

                                                                                        BEAUFORT SEA PLANNING AREA
                                                                                         ECONOMICALLY RECOVERABLE OIL AND GAS
                                                                                                  Recoverable Gas (Tcf)
                                                                                                          2                      4                6      8         10           12     14
                                                                                                                                                                                            $6




                                                                                           95) Res.




                                                                                                                                                                                                 GAS PRICE ($/mcf) AT PRUDHOE BAY
                                                                                 $45




                                          OIL PRICE ($/bbl) AT U.S. WEST COAST




                                                                                                                 Ca s e
                                                                                                                                                                                            $5

• Request for Information


                                                                                       Gas - Low (F




                                                                                                                             urce Case
                                                                                 $40




                                                                                                                 ource




                                                                                                                                                Case
  out now – due 1/30




                                                                                                                                                                          ase
                                                                                 $35




                                                                                                            ) Res
                                                                                                                                                                                            $4




                                                                                                                                                e
                                                                                                                           n Reso


                                                                                                                                            ourc




                                                                                                                                                                    urce C
                                                                                                        (F95
                                                                                 $30




                                                                                                                                          Res
                                                                                                                         - Mea




                                                                                                                                                                Reso
                                                                                                        ow
                                                                                                                                                                                            $3




                                                                                                                                         e an
                                                                                 $25




                                                                                                      -L
                                                                                               il




                                                                                                                                     M
                                                                                                                     s




                                                                                                                                                               F05)
                                                                                           O



                                                                                                                  Ga




                                                                                                                                                                        a se
                                                                                                                                 l-
• Next Sale: March 2005
                                                                                 $20




                                                                                                                             Oi




                                                                                                                                                             h(

                                                                                                                                                                      eC
                                                                                                                                                              g
                                                                                                                                                           Hi                               $2
                                                                                                                                                      as -




                                                                                                                                                                   rc
                                                                                 $15                                                                 G             u
                                                                                                                                                                 so
                                                                                                                                                          5 ) Re
                                                                                                                                                    h (F0
                                                                                 $10                                                       Oil - Hig
                                                                                                                                                                                            $1
                                                                                             CONVENTIONALLY RECOVERABLE OIL AND GAS ENDOWMENTS FOR BEAUFORT SEA
                                                                                               Low Resource (F95) Case: 3,560 Mmb Oil, 12.86 Tcf Gas
                                                                                  $5           Mean Resource Case: 6,940 Mmb Oil, 32.07 Tcf Gas
                                                                                               High (F05) Resource Case: 11,840 Mmb Oil, 63.27 Tcf Gas



                                                                                                                2000                            4000         6000               8000
                                                                                                                            Recoverable Oil (Mmbo)
         Alaska Permitting
• State//MMS MOU
• Recent Beaufort Sea
  permitting successes




           http://www.dnr.state.ak.us/
   Working with the
    Communities
• North Slope Borough
• Tribes - Government-to-government
• AEWC

• Keep communities informed
• Visits
• Consultation on Projects

• Nuiqsut Paisanich:
  Nuiqsut Heritage: A Cultural Plan
• In this Place:
  A Guide for Those Who Would Work in the Country of the
  Kaktovikmuit.
Cook Inlet Sale 191
• November 2003
  – Letter to Governor
  – FEIS
  – Coastal Zone Consistency
    Determination
  – PNOS
     • Defer 2 areas
• April 2004
  – Final Notice of Sale
• May 19, 2004
  – The Sale
     Cook Inlet Sale 191
Proposed Economic Incentives
• Royalty                                   LOWER COOK INLET PROGRAM AREA
                                                 AND INFRASTRUCTURE
   – 12.5% fixed                                                                  153°


                                                                                                                                                                LEWIS RIVER
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               150°




                                                              Legend                                                                                            PRETTY CREEK
                                                                                                                                                                                  STUMP LAKE




• Royalty Suspension Volume
                                                                                                                                                                                    IVAN RIVER
                                                Oil Field             Gas Field                                                                                                                                                        Anchorage
                                                                                                                                                          MOQUAWKIE          BELUGA RIVER
                                                                                                                                   ALBERT KALOA
                                                                      Plugged and abandoned
                                               Pipeline                                                                                                                            NORTH
                                                                      Federal OCS wells                                                                                            COOK INLET
                                                                                                                            NICOLAI CREEK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Turn
                                               Program area                                                                                                                                                                      again
                                                                                                                                                                              ARCO Sunfish                                                Arm
                                                                                                                         TRADING BAY




   – 30 Million BBls Oil Equivalent
                                      61°                                                                                                                        GRANITE POINT
                                               0                                          40
                                                                                                                 McARTHUR RIVER
                                                              STATUTE MILES
                                                                                                                                                                                         BIRCH HILL
                                                                                                                                                             NORTH MIDDLE
                                                                                                                WEST McARTHUR




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   E
                                                                                                                                                             GROUND SHOAL




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 IN
                                                                                                                  RIVER




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 EL
                                             Oil and Gas Fields




                                                                                                                                                                                                                              PIP
     (includes natural gas)
                                                                                                                                                                                         SWANSON RIVER




                                                                                                                                                                                                                           S
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         GA
                                                in Cook Inlet
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         L
                                                                                                                                                  MIDDLE                                                               RA
                                                                                                                                    WEST                                      BEAVER CREEK                           TU
                                                                                                                                 FORELAND         GROUND                                                           NA
                                                                                                                                                   SHOAL                                                       E
                                                                                                                                                                                                             AG
                                                    and                                                  DRIFT RIVER                                                Kenai
                                                                                                                                                                                     WEST FORK
                                                                                                                                                                                                        CH
                                                                                                                                                                                                          OR




   – with floor & ceiling
                                                                                                                                        REDOUBT                                                       AN
                                                                                                          FACILITY                       SHOAL                              STERLING

                                               Program Area                                                                                               CANNERY
                                                                                                                                                           LOOP


                                             Sales 191 and 199                                                                         Kalgin
                                                                                                                                        Island
                                                                                                                                                                       KENAI




• Minimum Bid                                                                                                                                                  FALLS
                                                                                                                                                               CREEK
                                                                                                                                                                              Tu
                                                                                                                                                                                stu
                                                                                                                                                                               La men
                                                                                                                                                                                  ke a




                                                                                                                               T
   – $10/acre




                                                                                                                            LE
                       (was $25)      60°




                                                                                                                         IN




                                                                                                                                                                                                                       LA
                                                                                                         COSMOPOLITAN                         Pennzoil Starichkof State Unit No.1




                                                                                                                                                                                                SU
                                                                                                                 S
                                                                                                                 M
                                                                                                                 C
                                                                                                                 O
                                                                                                                 N
                                                                                                                 A
                                                                                                                 T
                                                                                                                 I
                                                                                                                 L
                                                                                                                 P
                                                                                                                     U
                                                                                                                     T
                                                                                                                     I
                                                                                                                     N




                                                                                                             UNIT



• Rental Rate
                                                                                                                                            Pennzoil Starichkof State No.1




                                                                                                                                                                                              IN
                                                                                                                                                          NORTH FORK




                                                                                                                                                                                             N
                                                                                         Chevron




                                                                                                                                                                                           PE
                                                                                         Y-0243             Marathon
                                                                                                            Y-0086                                 Homer
                                                                                                                                                                  y




                                                                                                                                                                           AI
                                                                                         ARCO                                                                   Ba



   – $2/acre
                                                                                         Y-0097




                                                                                                                                                                          N
                       (was $5)                                                                                                                       k




                                                                                                                                                                        KE
                                                                                                                                                   ma
                                                                       ARCO                              COST Well                             che
                                                                                                                                            Ka
                                                                       Y-0161
                                                                                     ARCO                                                        Seldovia
                                                                                     Y-0113




• Initial Lease Term
                                                                                                     Phillips
                                                                                                     Y-0124




                                                                       OK
                                                                                          Phillips
                                            Kamishak




                                                                  CO
                                                                                          Y-0136
                                            Bay


                                                                                                                                                                      KA
   – 8 years           (was 5 yrs)    59°
                                                                         Marathon
                                                                                              Phillips
                                                                                              Y-0152

                                                                                                                Barren Islands
                                                                                                                                                                   LAS
                                                                                                                                                                 FA
                                                                          Y-0168



                                                                                                                                                                O
                                                                                                                                                             LF
                                                                                                                                                           GU
                                                                                  Cook Inlet
                                       Undiscovered Oil Pools for Lower Cook Inlet Planning Area                                             Undiscovered Gas Pools for Lower Cook Inlet Planning Area
                                                                                                                                                                (Non-Associated and Gas Cap)



                                                  Largest Pool                                                                                          Largest Pool




                                                                                                   Pool Resources (Billions of Cubic Feet)
                                                  Mean = 166.5 Mmbo                                                                                     Mean = 328.5 Bcfg
Pool Resources (Millions of Barrels)




                                                  Range F95-F05 = 25-447 Mmbo                                                                           Range F95-F05 = 46-907 Bcfg




                                                              F25                                                                                                    F25

                                                                    Mean                                                                                              Mea
                                                                                                                                                                         n

                                                                     F75
                                                                                                                                                                      F75




                                                             Pool Rank (N = 62)                                                                                    Pool Rank (N = 17)
Cook Inlet Planning Area        Oil (billion barrels)     Gas (trillions cubic ft)
CRR                             0.3 - 0.8 - 1.4                     0.7 – 1.4 – 2.5
ECR ($18/bbl; $2.11/mcf)        0.1 - 0.4 - 1.0                     0.1 – 0.6 – 1.3
ECR ($30/bbl; $3.52/mcf)        0.2 - 0.6 - 1.2                     0.5 – 1.0 – 1.7
Cook Inlet models assume oil and gas production is sent to local refineries and
markets in Alaska.




  Sale 191:
      May 19, 2004


  2nd Sale:
       May 2006
              The 5 Year Plan – Chukchi Sea/ Hope Basin
                              – Norton Basin
CHUKCHI SEA AND KOTZEBUE SOUND SEDIMENTARY BASINS

                                169° 168°
                               75°                         165°                       162°
                                                                                                                                       156°
                                                                                                                                          75°
                                                                                                                                                CA
                                                                                                                                                  NA

 Chukchi                  N


                                                                                   CHUKCHI
                                                                                                       N                                 (CR BAS A
                                                                                                                                             E
                                                                                                                                          -TE TACE
                                                                                                                                             RT OU
                                                                                                                                                  IN
                                                                                                                                               IAR S
                                                                                                                                                    D


                                                                                                                                                   Y)
                                                                                 BORDERLAND                                                     74°




                   NO
                           74°

                                                                                                                                                             • Keeping Options
                      R
                   (CR TH C
                          ETA HU
                             CE   K
                               OU CHI
                                                                                                        (CR NUW
                                                                                                           ETA UK
                                                                                                              CE
                                                                                                                 OU BAS                               73°
                                                                                                                                                               Open
                                                                                                                                                             • Local Use (?)
                                 S-T    B
                                     ER ASI                                                                         S-T IN
                         73°
                                       TIA
                                          RY
                                               N                                                                        ER
                                                                                                                           TIA
                                             )                                                                                RY
                                                                                                                                )
                                                                                                       M         H IN
                                                                                                                      GE
                                                                                                                         LIN
                                                                                                                            E

HINGE LINE                                                                                                                                                  72°




                                                                                                                                                             • Interest approach:
                    72°
                                                          POPCORN
                                                                                                                        ARCTIC
                              PLATFORM




                                                                                                                                                  Point
                               CHUKCHI




                                                           (PA




                                                                                                                       PLATFORM                  Barrow
                                                             HAN ZOIC-M




                                            CRACKERJACK
                                                              LEO




                                                                                                                                       Barrow
                                                                                                           DIAMOND
                                                                 N




                                                                                                                                                WALAKPA 71°
                                                                       AT




                                                                                    BURGER                                 Point Franklin                 RUS
                                                                                                                                                BRONTOSAU
                   71°



                                                                                                                                                             • Chukchi/Hope
                                                                         ROUOZOIC




                                                                                                                                     SKULL
                                                                                                                                      CLIFF
                                                                       E




                                                                                                                  ne            PEARD
                                                                           S




                                                                                                           Zo                                      Atqasuk
                                                                             GH )
 Russian Waters




                                                      KLONDIKE                                                          Wainwright KUGRUA

                                                                                                   Icyn
                                                                                                        ya
                                                                                                    ly Cape

                                                                              fe
                                                                                rre
                                                                                   d
                                                                                                  Po
                                                                                                            TUNALIK
                                                                                                                                                                    70°
                                                                                                                                                                  156°    – 2 sales
                                           s




                                                                                                  on
                                                                                              Lago




                  70°                                                       De                                                159°
                                                                                            luk
                                                                                        sega




                                                                                                                                                                          – Local use?
                                                                                                           TUNGAK        KAOLAK
                                                                                      Ka




                                                                                                            CREEK
                        HE




                                                                                        Point
                                                                                                                     ARCTIC
                          RA




                                                                                        Lay
                                                                                                                                A
                                                                                                                       (PALEOZOLASKA BASIN
                             L




                                                                                                                                                                          – Call #2 – early 2004
                                  D




                                                                                                                               IC-MESO
                                                                                                                                       ZOIC)
                                     AR




                                                                       Ledyard
                                                                         Bay
                                       CH




              69°                                                                AKULIK                     69°

                                                                            EAGLE CREEK
                                                   Cape Lisburne
                                                                                                                                      NP
                                                                                                                                        R-A
      68°30'                             167°00' 166°00' 165°00'

                                                                                                  BROOKS                  RANGE

                                                                                                                                                             • Norton Basin
    68°20'                                        Point Hope
                                                    Cape
                                                    Thompson                                           162°00'
          68°                                                Cape 164°00'           163°00'                68°
                                                             Seppings



                                                                                                                                                                          – gas for locals?
                                                                               d
                                                                           Ro a
                                                       Kivalina
                                                                                                                              2002-2007 PROGRAM AREAS WITHIN
                                                                                                                              PLANNING AREAS
                                         HO

                                                                                                                                                                          – Call #3 – early 2004
                                                                                                                              OCS PLANNING AREAS
                                         (T PE
                                           ERT BA Cape Krusenstern
 67°00'                                                                                                         AM
                                              IA SI                                                           TH
                                                                                                           HO LET
                                                RY N                                                         IN
                                                                                                                             POSITIONS OF SOUTH EDGE OF ARCTIC
                                                                                                                             ICE PACK DURING USUAL PERIOD OF
                                                  )                          Kotzebue
                                                                                                             NIMIUK          MAXIMUM RETREAT (SEPTEMBER 16-30)
                                                                                                                             FROM 1954 TO 1970. "N" (MOST
                                                                                                             POINT           NORTHERLY), "M" (MEDIAN), AND "S"
                                                                                                                             (MOST SOUTHERLY). AFTER GRANTZ ET
                                                                                                                             AL. (1982, FIG. 2).
                              I
                           KCH
                        CHU A                                  CAPE                        ue
                           SE
                                         SHISHMAREF
                                                            ESPENBERG                  tzeb ound
                                         INLET                                       Ko     S                                BASE OF HOPE BASIN FILL WITHIN
                                                                                                                             TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENT FOR OIL
                                                                                                                             GENERATION (>10,000 FEET THICK)

66°00'                   IKPEK
                         LAGOON
                                                                                                                                     MAP LOCATION
                                                        Seward Peninsula
                               LOPP LAGOON                                                                                     CHUKCHI
                                                                                                                                 SEA
           65°35'
                                                                   0                       50 Nautical Miles
                                                                   0                    50 Statute Miles                                     ALASKA

                                                                   0             50 Kilometers
                         PORT
                         CLARENCE                                                                                                                  PACIFIC
                                                                                                                                                   OCEAN
 Chukchi Sea Planning Area            Oil (billion barrels)         Gas (trillions cubic feet)
 CRR                                  8.6 - 15.5 - 25.0             13.6 – 60.1 – 154.3
 ECR ($18/bbl; $2.11/mcf)             0.0 - 1.0 - 7.2                  not available
 ECR ($30/bbl; $3.52/mcf)             1.4 - 6.1 - 11.0                 not available
 Chukchi Sea models assume that oil is transported through TAPS and on to West Coast
 markets. Natural gas was not assessed owing to lack of gas transportation system and
 availability of known gas reserves close to current facilities at Prudhoe Bay.

                                                                                                                                                                                   Undiscovered Oil Pools for Chukchi Sea Planning Area
                                             CHUKCHI SEA PLANNING AREA
                                                ECONOMICALLY RECOVERABLE OIL                                                                                                                  Largest Pool
                                                                                                                                                                                              Mean = 1,108 Mmbo
                                              (Gas is Not Taken to Market in Near Term)




                                                                                                                                            Pool Resources (Millions of Barrels)
                                                                                                                                                                                              Range F95-F05 = 151-3,635 Mmbo
                                                                         ase




                                       $45                                                                                                                                                                 F25
OIL PRICE ($/bbl) AT U.S. WEST COAST




                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Mean
                                                                   rce C




                                       $40                                                                                                                                                                       F75
                                                              esou




                                       $35
                                                         )R




                                                                                                                    ase




                                                          5
                                                      (F9
                                                                                       se




                                       $30
                                                Low
                                                                                                                  eC
                                                                                    Ca




                                                                                                                                                                                                             Pool Rank (N = 559)
                                                                                                               urc
                                                                                ce




                                                                                                                                                                                   Undiscovered Gas Pools for Chukchi Sea Planning Area
                                                                               ur




                                       $25
                                                                         so
                                                                                                                                                                                              (Non-Associated and Gas Cap)
                                                                                                              o
                                                                                                           es




                                                                    n Re
                                                                                                          )R




                                                           a                                                                                                                                  Largest Pool
                                       $20               Me
                                                                                                     05




                                                                                                                                                                                              Mean = 10,159 Bcfg
                                                                                                     (F                                                                                       Range F95-F05 = 353-34,023 Bcfg
                                                                                                                          Pool Resources (Billions of Cubic Feet)


                                                                                                 h
                                                                                              Hig
                                       $15
                                                                                                                                                                                                          F25
                                       $10                                                                                                                                                                       Mean
                                             CONVENTIONALLY RECOVERABLE OIL AND GAS ENDOWMENTS FOR CHUKCHI SHELF
                                               Low Resource (F95) Case: 8,600 Mmbo Oil and 13,560 Bcf Gas
                                        $5      Mean Resource Case: 15460 Mmbo Oil and 60,110 Bcf Gas                                                                                                            F75
                                                High (F05) Resource Case: 25,030 Mmbo Oil and 154,310 Bcf Gas




                                                          4000                              8000               12000
                                                     Recoverable Oil (Mmbo)                                                                                                                                  Pool Rank (N = 657)
   Hope Basin Planning Area      Oil (billion barrels)      Gas (trillions cubic ft)
   CRR                           0.0 - 0.1 - 0.3                      0.0 – 3.4 – 11.1
   ECR ($18/bbl; $2.11/mcf)      0.0 - <0.1 - 0.1                     0.0 – 0.6 – 4.9
   ECR ($30/bbl; $3.52/mcf)      0.0 - <0.1 - 0.2                     0.0 – 1.5 – 6.0
   Hope Basin models assume a local market exists for natural gas.



                                        HOPE BASIN PLANNING AREA                                                                                                                          Undiscovered Gas Pools for Hope Basin Planning Area
                                          ECONOMICALLY RECOVERABLE GAS AND NGL                                                                                                                           (Non-Associated and Gas Cap)
                                                       Recoverable Gas (Bcf)
                                                2000               4000                6000               8000
                                                                                                                 $6
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Largest Pool
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Mean = 1,667 Bcfg
                                          NGL




                                  $45
                                                   GAS




                                                                                                                                                      Pool Resources (Billions of Cubic Feet)
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Range F95-F05 = 263-4,861 Bcfg
                                                                           NGL




                                                                                                                 $5



                                                                                                                      GAS PRICE ($/MCF) AT KIVALINA
OIL PRICE ($/bbl) AT COOK INLET




                                  $40
                                                                                                 S




                                  $35
                                                   Mean                                                          $4
                                                                                              GA




                                  $30
                                                 Resource
                                                   Case                                                                                                                                                          F25
                                  $25                                                                            $3
                                                                                         High (F05)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Mean
                                  $20
                                                                                         Resource
                                                                                           Case                  $2
                                  $15                                                                                                                                                                                  F75
                                  $10
                                                                                                                 $1
                                            CONVENTIONALLY RECOVERABLE OIL AND GAS ENDOWMENTS FOR HOPE BASIN
                                              Low Resource (F95) Case: 0.00 Mmb NGL and 0.00 Bcf Gas
                                   $5          Mean Resource Case: 90 Mmb NGL and 3,380 Bcf Gas
                                               High (F05) Resource Case: 280 Mmb NGL and 11,060 Bcf Gas



                                                       100                       200                       300
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Pool Rank (N = 151)
                                        Recoverable Natural Gas Liquids (Mmb)
Norton Basin Planning Area    Oil (billion barrels)   Gas (trillions cubic ft)
CRR                           0.0 - <0.1 - 0.2        0.0 – 2.7 – 8.7
ECR ($18/bbl; $2.11/mcf)      0.0 - <0.1 – 0.1        0.0 – 1.0 – 5.0
ECR ($30/bbl; $3.52/mcf)      0.0 - <0.1 – 0.1        0.0 – 1.6 – 6.4
Norton Basin models assume local consumption of gas and gas-products.



          NORTON BASIN PLANNING AREA                                                                                                                                                            Undiscovered Gas Pools for Norton Basin Planning Area
                                                                                                                                                                                                               (Non-Associated and Gas Cap)
                                  Economically Recoverable Gas and NGL
                                          Recoverable Gas (Tcf)
                                                          2                4                  6                  8                                                                                         Largest Pool



                                                                                                                                                      Pool Resources (Billions of Cubic Feet)
                                  $60                                                                                $7                                                                                    Mean = 1,681 Bcfg
OIL PRICE ($/bbl) AT COOK INLET




                                                                                                                          GAS PRICE ($/mcf) AT NOME                                                        Range F95-F05 = 229-5,334 Bcfg
                                                             Mean
                                  $50                       Resource                                                 $6
                                                                                                    NGL




                                                              Case
                                                   N GL




                                                                                                                     $5
                                  $40
                                                          GA S




                                                                           High (F05)                                $4                                                                                                F25
                                                                                                         S




                                                                           Resource
                                                                                                      GA




                                  $30                                        Case                                                                                                                                            Mean
                                                                                                                 $3
                                  $20
                                                                                                                 $2                                                                                                          F75

                                  $10       CONVENTIONALLY RECOVERABLE OIL AND GAS ENDOWMENTS FOR NORTON BASIN       $1
                                              Low Resource (F95) Case: 0.00 Mmb NGL and 0.00 Bcf Gas
                                              Mean Resource Case: 50 Mmb NGL and 2,710 Bcf Gas
                                              High (F05) Resource Case: 150 Mmb NGL and 8,740 Bcf Gas




                                        0                 40               80                120
                                   Recoverable Natural Gas Liquids (Mmbo)                                                                                                                                             Pool Rank (N = 80)
                                                                                                                                                      68°




                                                                                                         Cana
                    ia
URCES OF NORTH ALEUTIAN BASIN
                             s                                   NPR-A
      LOW RESOURCE        us
                        MEAN HIGH RESOURCE
                        R
CES             North Aleutian Basin
        CASE (F95)
         0.00 bbo
         0.00 bbo
                        CASE
                      0.230 bbo
                      0.024 bbo
                                CASE (F05)
                                    0.57 bbo
                                    0.20 bbo
                                                               Prudhoe Bay Area
                                                               Oil and Gas Fields
                                                                                       ANWR                                                           66°


            NR        0.036 bbo        NR
                                                                                                                                                      64°
CES      0.00 tcfg    6.790 tcfg    17.33 tcfg




                                                                                    TA
                                                                                                                 • Moratoria
         0.00 tcfg    0.880 tcfg     7.71 tcfg




                                                                                       PS
            NR        1.272 tcfg    12.30 tcfg
            NR        5.900 tcfg    15.30 tcfg                       ALASKA                                         Canada                            62°

                                                                                                                               – Presidential
                                                           Cook Inlet Oil
                                                                                    Valdez
                                                                                                                               – [Congressional]      60°

                                                           and Gas Fields
                                                                                                                                                      58°


                                                                                                                 • Gas Prone                          56°
      NORTH ALEUTIAN BASIN                                                                                                     – 7 TCF Mean
       OCS PLANNING AREA

                                                                                             50                 150
                                                                                                                               – 17 TCF (5%)          54°

                                                                                                                       Miles
                                                                                                   0
                                                                                         50                     150
                                                                                                                       Nautical Miles
                                                                                                   0                                                  52°
                                                                                              50          150
                                                                                                                       Kilometers


                                                                                                                 • Oil
                                                                                                   0
                                     NORTH ALEUTIAN BASIN                                                       Shelf Edge

                                                                                                                                                      50°

                                                                                                                               – 230 MMB Mean
      174°           170°          166°          162°   158°       154°        150°               146°                142°
                                                                                                                               – 570 MMB (5%)
                                                                                                                                        138°   134°
    Lift Moratoria?
Before Consideration:
• Congress
   – Lift appropriations
     ban
• State
   – Request from
     Governor


• Support in the
  Communities
         MMS Geological Information
          http://www.mms.gov/alaska/ref/akref.htm
• Geological                    • Summary
  Reports                         packages
  –   Beaufort Sea                 –   Beaufort Sea
  –   Chukchi Sea                  –   Chukchi
  –   Norton Basin                 –   Cook Inlet
  –   Gulf of Alaska               –   Norton Basin
                                                         Walrus haulout
MMS Research
• Technology and Assessment
  Program
   – engineering and oil spill response

• Environmental Studies
  Program

                                          • University of Alaska
                                            – CMI

                                            – Marine Minerals
                                              Technology Center



  Monitoring
             DOI/State/UAA
• Whatever Information you need on resources
• Moving to UAA Library this summer


                             http://www.arlis.org
          Upcoming MMS OCS Sales
                   www.mms.gov/alaska/
                      907-271-6010


• Cook Inlet 191
  – May 19, 2004

• Beaufort Sea 195
  – March 2005

 Alaska DNR: www.dnr.state.ak.us/
 BLM Alaska: www.ak.blm.gov/
                                         MMS

				
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