Probability of a Decisive Vote

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					                                  1
                                       5
                                           11
                                                21
probability of decisive vote

                                                     51
                                 0.1                      101
                                                                501
                                                                  1,001
                                                                          5,001
                                0.01                                         10,001

                                                                                      100,001

                               0.001                                                            1,000,001




                0.0001
                      1E0                  1E1            1E2     1E3       1E4         1E5       1E6       1E7
                                                                 number of voters



                                           Stirling Approx only (p=.5)         Stirling & Taylor (p=.5)
                                           No Approx (p=.5)                    No Approx (p=.45)
                                                      5   11 21   51 101     5011,001
                                         1E0                                             5,001
probability of decisive vote (p=.45)                                                        10,001


                                        1E-50


                                       1E-100


                                       1E-150


                                       1E-200
                                                                                                       100,001


                                       1E-250
                                            1E0           1E1        1E2        1E3         1E4          1E5     1E6
                                                                           number of voters




                                                  Stirling Approx only     Stirling & Taylor         No Approx

				
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posted:8/7/2011
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