Global Warming

Document Sample
Global Warming Powered By Docstoc
					Future Energy
           L. David Roper
     Professor Emeritus of Physics
  Virginia Polytechnic Inst. & St. Univ.
            roperld@vt.edu
  http://arts.bev.net/RoperLDavid/
             Future Energy
 Population is high because of availability of
  large fossil-fuels energy, but is trending to
  level off below 8.5 billion.
 World extraction of crude oil is peaking,
  natural gas will peak soon and coal will peak
  in about 50 years or less.
 Nuclear energy cannot come close to
  making up the energy shortfall after fossil-
  fuels peaking.
 Renewable energy is coming on very fast
  and can make up the fossil-fuels shortfall.
                                     World Population
                                                        World Population
              9



              8



              7



              6
                                                                  World population appears to be
10^9 people




              5                                                  leveling off, as shown by the fact
                                                                that the increase in population has
              4
                                                                 been decreasing (see next slide).
              3



              2



              1



              0
              1950   1960   1970   1980   1990   2000    2010       2020            2030   2040       2050   2060   2070   2080   2090   2100

                                                                             Year


                                                                Population                  Verhulst Fit
                                  World Population Change
                                                              World Population Change
                         0.1


                        0.09                                                      The change could go negative if
                        0.08                                                    renewable energy is not developed
                                                                               to make up the fossil-fuels shortfall.
10^9 people per year.




                        0.07
                                                                                That is, population could decrease.
                        0.06


                        0.05


                        0.04


                        0.03


                        0.02


                        0.01


                          0
                           1950   1960   1970   1980   1990    2000   2010         2020   2030     2040      2050   2060   2070   2080   2090   2100

                                                                                      Year

                                                                      Pop Change             Verhulst Pop Change
Assume Energy Consumption Levels Off


    This assumes that leveling off of world energy use is similar to the
    apparent leveling off of world population.
    It corresponds to an asymptote of about 350 MBtu per person
    per year or 12 kilowatts per person, assuming that world
    population levels off to about 8.3 billion.

                    USA: 350 Mbtu/person/year (12 kW/person)
           Industrialized countries: 200 MBtu/person/year (7 kW/person)
                    World: 75 Mbtu/person/year (2.5 kW/person)
             Developing countries: 35 MBtu/person/year (1 kW/person)
        Calculation Procedure
 Fit depletion equation to the extraction-rate
  data for coal, crude oil and natural gas.
 Calculate the energy-versus-time curve for
  coal, crude oil and natural gas and their sum.
 Compare the fossil-fuels energy versus time to
  the projected energy usage.
 Show that there is not enough uranium to help.
 Calculate the percentage increase of
  renewable energy required to make up the
  difference. It is doable!
       Depletion (Verhulst) Function
Q = amount already extracted
+ amount left to be extracted =
 total amount to be extracted




      n > 1 allows
      asymmetry.




  This provides a peaked curve with possible asymmetry.
                                           World Crude Oil Extraction
                    30

                                                  Peak Oil                  Oil discoveries will not
                    25
                                                                            allow higher average
                                                                            extraction.
10^9 barrels/year




                    20



                    15


                                                    Read Twilight in the Desert
                    10
                                                    book by Matthew Simmons.

                     5



                     0
                      1900   1920   1940   1960     1980           2000    2020        2040   2060   2080   2100
                                                                   year


                                                  Extraction Fit          Extraction Rate
                    You can’t extract it if you have
                          not discovered it!
                                                   World Crude Oil Discoveries
                    60


                    50                                               Areas under both curves are the same.
                                                                     That is, the amount discovered equals
10^9 barrels/year




                    40                                               the amount extracted. Mass is
                                                                     conserved.
                    30


                    20


                    10


                     0
                      1900   1920      1940        1960     1980          2000   2020       2040   2060      2080     2100
                                                                   year
                                Discoveries Rate          Discoveries Fit        Extraction Rate     Extraction Fit




The areas under the two curves are the same: ~2x1012 barrels.
 “Drilling for the
      dregs”
         not
 “Drill baby drill”
There is a drilling-rig shortage.
                                      World Petroleum Extraction Per Capita
                      5.5

                      5.0
                                                                             Oil prices will rise in the
                                                                            long term! The last drops
                      4.5                                                       will cost the most!
barrels/person/year




                      4.0

                      3.5

                      3.0

                      2.5

                      2.0

                      1.5

                      1.0

                      0.5

                      0.0
                        1875   1900      1925   1950   1975          2000       2025    2050     2075      2100

                                                              year
                                    World Natural-Gas Extraction
       110

       100

            90                                       Gas discoveries will not
            80                                       allow higher average
            70                                       extraction.
10^12 ft^




            60

            50

            40
                                  Read High Noon for Natural Gas
                                      book by Julian Darley.
            30

            20

            10

            0
             1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 2175 2200 2225 2250 2275 2300
                                                     year

                                 Natural Gas (10^12 ft^3)   Verhulst Fit (15x10^15 ft^3)
                You can’t extract it if you have
                      not discovered it!
                                              World Natural Gas Extraction
       400


       350
                                                              Areas under both curves are the same.
       300                                                    That is, the amount discovered equals
                                                              the amount extracted.
       250
Tcf/year




       200


       150


       100


           50


            0
            1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
                                                               year
                 Natural Gas Extraction   Natural Gas Extraction Fit   Natural Gas Discoveries   Natural Gas Discoveries Fit


     The areas under the two curves are the same: ~8x1015 cu. ft.
Sorry, Mr. Pickens!
                                                     World Coal Extraction
                  11000

                  10000

                  9000                 Peaks at about 2065.
                  8000

                                                                      Double known coal
10^6 Short Tons




                  7000
                                                                          Unlikely!
                  6000

                  5000
                                                   Known existent coal
                  4000

                  3000
                                        Recent analysis of energywatchgroup.org indicates
                  2000                    that the actual existent coal may be half of the
                  1000
                                                      “known existent coal”.

                     0
                      1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 2175 2200 2225 2250 2275 2300 2325 2350 2375 2400

                                                                       Year

                                           World Coal Extracted    3x10^12 ST Total      1.5x10^12 ST Total
 Energy Content of Fossil Fuels

 1 ton (2000 lbs) of coal yields
  about 25.2 MBtu.
 1 barrel (42 gallons) of crude oil
  yields about 5.8 MBtu.
 1 tcf (thousand cubic feet) of
  natural gas yields about 1 MBtu.
                            Energy from Fossil Fuels
                                                        World Fossil-Fuels Energy
            300

                                                                        Peaks at about 2025.
            250

                                                                                             Even though coal peaks at
            200                                                                             about 2065, the peaking of oil
                                                                                            about now and of natural gas
10^9 MBtu




            150                                                                              soon makes the fossil-fuels
                                                                                             energy peak at about 2025.
            100



             50



             0
              1900   1925   1950   1975     2000    2025     2050     2075    2100   2125    2150   2175    2200     2225       2250   2275   2300
                                                                              year

                                          Coal Energy      Crude-Oil Energy    Natural-Gas Energy   Total Fossil Fuels Energy




             Assumes that 75% of each fossil fuel is burned for energy.
                   World Population Projection
                                                Population Fit to Energy
               8                                                                                        350

                                                                      Population with
               7                                                                                        300
                                                                     renewable energy
               6
                                                                                                        250

               5
 10^9 people




                                                                                                              10^9 MBtu
                                                                                                        200
               4

                                                                            Population without          150
               3
                                                                            renewable energy
                                                                                                        100
               2


               1                                                                                        50


               0                                                                                        0
               1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 2175 2200 2225 2250 2275 2300
                                                           year
                          Population Projection (10^9)     Population Fit   Total Fossil Fuels Energy



Fit of population to available fossil-fuels energy 1950-2006.
             Energy From Fossil Fuels & Consumption
                                               World Fossil-Fuels & Energy Consumption
            3000

            2750                 World energy use of 12-kW/person
            2500

            2250

            2000
                                                                                    Fossil-fuels deficit!
10^9 MBtu




            1750
                                                                                 World, we have a problem!
            1500

            1250

            1000

            750

            500
                                                Fossil-fuels energy
            250

              0
               1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 2175 2200 2225 2250 2275 2300
                                                                  year
              Coal Energy   Crude-Oil Energy      Natural-Gas Energy     Total Fossil Fuels Energy   World Energy Consumption
                          Energy From Uranium
                                           Net energy from nuclear reactors is
                                            Uranium Energy
            25
                                                       not very high.
            24
            23                             Low-grade ores yield negative net
            22
            21                                         energy. See:
            20
            19                                  http://www.stormsmith.nl/
            18
            17
            16
                                           http://www.energywatchgroup.org/
            15                                      http://www.rmi.org/
10^9 MBtu




            14
            13
            12
            11
            10                                                        Double known net-energy
             9
             8                                                             uranium Unlikely!
             7
             6                Known existent net-energy uranium
             5
             4
             3
             2
             1
             0
              1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 2175 2200 2225 2250 2275 2300
                                                  year
                         Uranium Doubled        Uranium Fit       Uranium energy data
                               Energy From Uranium
                        World Fossil-Fuels + Uranium Energy & Energy Consumption
            3000

            2750

            2500

            2250
                                                                                       Uranium Energy is not
            2000
                                                                                            the answer!
10^9 MBtu




            1750

            1500                                                                       If we waste fossil fuels
            1250                                                                        to develop it, that will
            1000
                                                                                           delay developing
             750
                                                                                          renewable energy.
             500

             250

               0

              1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 2175 2200 2225 2250 2275 2300
                                                                    year
              Coal Energy   Crude-Oil Energy   Natural-Gas Energy     Fossil Fuels + Uranium   Uranium   World Energy Consumption
      Energy Deficit from FF & Uranium
                             World Fossil-Fuels & Energy Consumption & Deficit
            3000

            2750

            2500

            2250

            2000

            1750                      Fossil
10^9 MBtu




                                     Fuels &
            1500
                                     Uranium
            1250
                                                              Other
            1000
                                                             Energy
            750                                              Sources
            500                                              needed
            250

              0
               1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 2175 2200 2225 2250 2275 2300
                                                      year
                                      Other Sources    World Energy Consumption
World Growth Rates for Renewable Energy

 Wind energy: about 21% per year
 Photovoltaics: about 48% per year
 Biodiesel: about 40% per year

       Good News!!
   Bad news: U.S. is far
  behind other countries!
Renewable Energy Assumptions for
      a Rough Calculation
 Wind energy will supply about ½ of
  renewable energy
 Direct solar energy will supply
  about ¼ of renewable energy.
 Biofuels will supply about ¼ of
  renewable energy.
                                              Renewable Energy
                             World Fossil-Fuels & Renewables & Energy Consumption (Coal Moratorium)
            3000

            2750

            2500

            2250

            2000
                                                Fossil                                                All renewables
10^9 MBtu




            1750
                                               Fuels &
            1500                               Uranium
            1250
                                                        Other
            1000
                                                      constant
            750                                        in time.
            500

            250                                                                  Solar &       Wind
               0                                                                 biofuels
               1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 2175 2200 2225 2250 2275 2300
                                                                          year
            Other Sources (Coal Moratorium)    World Energy Consumption     Wind BTU*10^15   Photovoltaic BTU*10^15   Wind+PV+Biofuels
Renewable Energy Growth Rate

        6.6%

                              Doable with
Work
                                Effort!
hard!
               Relax a bit.
World Growth Rates for Renewable Energy


 Wind energy: about 21% per year
 Photovoltaics: about 48% per year
 Biodiesel: about 40% per year
  Coal Moratorium Possibility

                             Also, about the same as reduced
                                coal reserves according to
                            http://www.energywatchgroup.org/
                                 http://ie.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
Possible decision to quit
burning coal because the
 pollution is killing too
  many people and the
carbon released into the
 atmosphere is causing
    too much global
        warming.
                           Coal Moratorium Possibility
                                World Fossil-Fuels Energy (Coal Moratorium)
            300
                                                      Peaks at about 2015.
            250




            200
10^9 MBtu




                                                                       Reduced coal burning
            150




            100




             50




              0
              1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 2175 2200 2225 2250 2275 2300
                                                      year
                  Coal Moratorium Energy   Crude-Oil Energy   Natural-Gas Energy   Total Fossil Fuels Energy (Coal Moratorium)
Coal Moratorium Possibility



     Fossil
    Fuels &
    Uranium
        Other
Coal Moratorium Possibility
 7.2%


              Doable with
                Effort!
   How Much Land is Needed?
 12 kW/person x 8.3 billion people = 96 x 1012
  watts ≈ 100 terawatts. Current = ~15 TW.)
 Solar energy = ~342 watts/m2 at surface.
 Land area needed at 10% efficiency = ~2.8 x
  106 km2.
 Earth land area is ~1.48 x 108 km^2.
 So, ~1.9% of land is needed. Use roofs of
  buildings, parking lots, highways &
  railways (1.1 x 105 km2) for solar and use
  agriculture land and offshore sites for
  wind.
   Future of Energy for the U.S.
 The calculations are for the entire world.
 The U.S. is far behind many other countries
  in developing renewable energy.
 The U.S. has wasted the last decade in
  making the needed changes.
 The U.S. must move quickly to use the
  remaining fossil-fuels to develop the
  infrastructure for renewable energy.
 The biggest need is for personal &
  political will to make the necessary
  changes!
Peak oil/gas/coal is challenging our Homo-
 sapiens brain to recognize the truth of it,
 make plans to mitigate it and put the plans
 into action. We are having trouble doing
 all three.

Global Warming is still a huge problem even
 though fossil-fuels depletion will keep it from
 growing into the far future. (I have another
 talk about that.)
This lecture is on the Internet, along with other
 related lectures:

 http://www.roperld.com/science/energy.ppt
 http://www.roperld.com/science/GlobalWarm
  ingPrediction.ppt (Energy and Global
  Warming)
 http://www.roperld.com/science/energyGWN
  MIA.ppt (Energy, Global Warming and the
  Next Major Ice Age)
Global Warming Due to Fossil Fuels
                                            Worst case
                                            approximation
                                            including
                                            carbon
                                            emissions from
                                            thawing Arctic
                                            tundra and
                                            saturation of
      See Six Degrees book by Mark Lynas.
                                            ocean and
                                            vegetation
                                            absorption of
                                            atmospheric
                                            carbon.
     Mitigating Global Warming
 Cutting carbon emissions by not burning so
  much fossil fuels will increase the needed %
  increase of renewable-energy growth, but is still
  doable.
 Emphasize Lovin’s negawatts more than
  kilowatts.
 Advocate incentives for plug-in hybrid and
  electric vehicles.
 Advocate an electric Interstate Railway System.
 Advocate about “carbon dumping fees and
  fines”, not “carbon tax”; frame the issue!
 Next Major Ice Age with Global-Warming Blip




              Extrapolation of a model fitted to
                the last two Major Ice Ages.




Accounting for fact that Earth average temperature changes are
     about half Antarctica average temperature changes.
Planning for the Next 1000 years
 It appears certain that, after fossil-fuels have
  depleted in the next few hundred years, the
  Earth will plunge into the next Major Ice Age
  for about 100,000 years.
 It would help humans to adjust to the plunge
  into the next Major Ice Age if the carbon-
  dioxide that is sequestered to reduce global
  warming were available for release to slow
  down the plunge.
Future Energy
           L. David Roper
     Professor Emeritus of Physics
  Virginia Polytechnic Inst. & St. Univ.
            roperld@vt.edu
  http://arts.bev.net/RoperLDavid/

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Tags:
Stats:
views:7
posted:8/6/2011
language:English
pages:41