# Global Warming by wuyunqing

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```									Future Energy
L. David Roper
Professor Emeritus of Physics
Virginia Polytechnic Inst. & St. Univ.
roperld@vt.edu
http://arts.bev.net/RoperLDavid/
Future Energy
 Population is high because of availability of
large fossil-fuels energy, but is trending to
level off below 8.5 billion.
 World extraction of crude oil is peaking,
natural gas will peak soon and coal will peak
in about 50 years or less.
 Nuclear energy cannot come close to
making up the energy shortfall after fossil-
fuels peaking.
 Renewable energy is coming on very fast
and can make up the fossil-fuels shortfall.
World Population
World Population
9

8

7

6
World population appears to be
10^9 people

5                                                  leveling off, as shown by the fact
that the increase in population has
4
been decreasing (see next slide).
3

2

1

0
1950   1960   1970   1980   1990   2000    2010       2020            2030   2040       2050   2060   2070   2080   2090   2100

Year

Population                  Verhulst Fit
World Population Change
World Population Change
0.1

0.09                                                      The change could go negative if
0.08                                                    renewable energy is not developed
to make up the fossil-fuels shortfall.
10^9 people per year.

0.07
That is, population could decrease.
0.06

0.05

0.04

0.03

0.02

0.01

0
1950   1960   1970   1980   1990    2000   2010         2020   2030     2040      2050   2060   2070   2080   2090   2100

Year

Pop Change             Verhulst Pop Change
Assume Energy Consumption Levels Off

This assumes that leveling off of world energy use is similar to the
apparent leveling off of world population.
It corresponds to an asymptote of about 350 MBtu per person
per year or 12 kilowatts per person, assuming that world
population levels off to about 8.3 billion.

USA: 350 Mbtu/person/year (12 kW/person)
Industrialized countries: 200 MBtu/person/year (7 kW/person)
World: 75 Mbtu/person/year (2.5 kW/person)
Developing countries: 35 MBtu/person/year (1 kW/person)
Calculation Procedure
 Fit depletion equation to the extraction-rate
data for coal, crude oil and natural gas.
 Calculate the energy-versus-time curve for
coal, crude oil and natural gas and their sum.
 Compare the fossil-fuels energy versus time to
the projected energy usage.
 Show that there is not enough uranium to help.
 Calculate the percentage increase of
renewable energy required to make up the
difference. It is doable!
Depletion (Verhulst) Function
+ amount left to be extracted =
total amount to be extracted

n > 1 allows
asymmetry.

This provides a peaked curve with possible asymmetry.
World Crude Oil Extraction
30

Peak Oil                  Oil discoveries will not
25
allow higher average
extraction.
10^9 barrels/year

20

15

10
book by Matthew Simmons.

5

0
1900   1920   1940   1960     1980           2000    2020        2040   2060   2080   2100
year

Extraction Fit          Extraction Rate
You can’t extract it if you have
not discovered it!
World Crude Oil Discoveries
60

50                                               Areas under both curves are the same.
That is, the amount discovered equals
10^9 barrels/year

40                                               the amount extracted. Mass is
conserved.
30

20

10

0
1900   1920      1940        1960     1980          2000   2020       2040   2060      2080     2100
year
Discoveries Rate          Discoveries Fit        Extraction Rate     Extraction Fit

The areas under the two curves are the same: ~2x1012 barrels.
“Drilling for the
dregs”
not
“Drill baby drill”
There is a drilling-rig shortage.
World Petroleum Extraction Per Capita
5.5

5.0
Oil prices will rise in the
long term! The last drops
4.5                                                       will cost the most!
barrels/person/year

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0
1875   1900      1925   1950   1975          2000       2025    2050     2075      2100

year
World Natural-Gas Extraction
110

100

90                                       Gas discoveries will not
80                                       allow higher average
70                                       extraction.
10^12 ft^

60

50

40
Read High Noon for Natural Gas
book by Julian Darley.
30

20

10

0
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 2175 2200 2225 2250 2275 2300
year

Natural Gas (10^12 ft^3)   Verhulst Fit (15x10^15 ft^3)
You can’t extract it if you have
not discovered it!
World Natural Gas Extraction
400

350
Areas under both curves are the same.
300                                                    That is, the amount discovered equals
the amount extracted.
250
Tcf/year

200

150

100

50

0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
year
Natural Gas Extraction   Natural Gas Extraction Fit   Natural Gas Discoveries   Natural Gas Discoveries Fit

The areas under the two curves are the same: ~8x1015 cu. ft.
Sorry, Mr. Pickens!
World Coal Extraction
11000

10000

8000

Double known coal
10^6 Short Tons

7000
Unlikely!
6000

5000
Known existent coal
4000

3000
Recent analysis of energywatchgroup.org indicates
2000                    that the actual existent coal may be half of the
1000
“known existent coal”.

0
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 2175 2200 2225 2250 2275 2300 2325 2350 2375 2400

Year

World Coal Extracted    3x10^12 ST Total      1.5x10^12 ST Total
Energy Content of Fossil Fuels

 1 ton (2000 lbs) of coal yields
 1 barrel (42 gallons) of crude oil
 1 tcf (thousand cubic feet) of
natural gas yields about 1 MBtu.
Energy from Fossil Fuels
World Fossil-Fuels Energy
300

250

Even though coal peaks at
200                                                                             about 2065, the peaking of oil
about now and of natural gas
10^9 MBtu

150                                                                              soon makes the fossil-fuels
100

50

0
1900   1925   1950   1975     2000    2025     2050     2075    2100   2125    2150   2175    2200     2225       2250   2275   2300
year

Coal Energy      Crude-Oil Energy    Natural-Gas Energy   Total Fossil Fuels Energy

Assumes that 75% of each fossil fuel is burned for energy.
World Population Projection
Population Fit to Energy
8                                                                                        350

Population with
7                                                                                        300
renewable energy
6
250

5
10^9 people

10^9 MBtu
200
4

Population without          150
3
renewable energy
100
2

1                                                                                        50

0                                                                                        0
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 2175 2200 2225 2250 2275 2300
year
Population Projection (10^9)     Population Fit   Total Fossil Fuels Energy

Fit of population to available fossil-fuels energy 1950-2006.
Energy From Fossil Fuels & Consumption
World Fossil-Fuels & Energy Consumption
3000

2750                 World energy use of 12-kW/person
2500

2250

2000
Fossil-fuels deficit!
10^9 MBtu

1750
World, we have a problem!
1500

1250

1000

750

500
Fossil-fuels energy
250

0
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 2175 2200 2225 2250 2275 2300
year
Coal Energy   Crude-Oil Energy      Natural-Gas Energy     Total Fossil Fuels Energy   World Energy Consumption
Energy From Uranium
Net energy from nuclear reactors is
Uranium Energy
25
not very high.
24
23                             Low-grade ores yield negative net
22
21                                         energy. See:
20
19                                  http://www.stormsmith.nl/
18
17
16
http://www.energywatchgroup.org/
15                                      http://www.rmi.org/
10^9 MBtu

14
13
12
11
10                                                        Double known net-energy
9
8                                                             uranium Unlikely!
7
6                Known existent net-energy uranium
5
4
3
2
1
0
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 2175 2200 2225 2250 2275 2300
year
Uranium Doubled        Uranium Fit       Uranium energy data
Energy From Uranium
World Fossil-Fuels + Uranium Energy & Energy Consumption
3000

2750

2500

2250
Uranium Energy is not
2000
10^9 MBtu

1750

1500                                                                       If we waste fossil fuels
1250                                                                        to develop it, that will
1000
delay developing
750
renewable energy.
500

250

0

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 2175 2200 2225 2250 2275 2300
year
Coal Energy   Crude-Oil Energy   Natural-Gas Energy     Fossil Fuels + Uranium   Uranium   World Energy Consumption
Energy Deficit from FF & Uranium
World Fossil-Fuels & Energy Consumption & Deficit
3000

2750

2500

2250

2000

1750                      Fossil
10^9 MBtu

Fuels &
1500
Uranium
1250
Other
1000
Energy
750                                              Sources
500                                              needed
250

0
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 2175 2200 2225 2250 2275 2300
year
Other Sources    World Energy Consumption
World Growth Rates for Renewable Energy

 Wind energy: about 21% per year
 Photovoltaics: about 48% per year
 Biodiesel: about 40% per year

Good News!!
behind other countries!
Renewable Energy Assumptions for
a Rough Calculation
 Wind energy will supply about ½ of
renewable energy
 Direct solar energy will supply
 Biofuels will supply about ¼ of
renewable energy.
Renewable Energy
World Fossil-Fuels & Renewables & Energy Consumption (Coal Moratorium)
3000

2750

2500

2250

2000
Fossil                                                All renewables
10^9 MBtu

1750
Fuels &
1500                               Uranium
1250
Other
1000
constant
750                                        in time.
500

250                                                                  Solar &       Wind
0                                                                 biofuels
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 2175 2200 2225 2250 2275 2300
year
Other Sources (Coal Moratorium)    World Energy Consumption     Wind BTU*10^15   Photovoltaic BTU*10^15   Wind+PV+Biofuels
Renewable Energy Growth Rate

6.6%

Doable with
Work
Effort!
hard!
Relax a bit.
World Growth Rates for Renewable Energy

 Wind energy: about 21% per year
 Photovoltaics: about 48% per year
 Biodiesel: about 40% per year
Coal Moratorium Possibility

Also, about the same as reduced
coal reserves according to
http://www.energywatchgroup.org/
http://ie.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
Possible decision to quit
burning coal because the
pollution is killing too
many people and the
carbon released into the
atmosphere is causing
too much global
warming.
Coal Moratorium Possibility
World Fossil-Fuels Energy (Coal Moratorium)
300
250

200
10^9 MBtu

Reduced coal burning
150

100

50

0
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 2175 2200 2225 2250 2275 2300
year
Coal Moratorium Energy   Crude-Oil Energy   Natural-Gas Energy   Total Fossil Fuels Energy (Coal Moratorium)
Coal Moratorium Possibility

Fossil
Fuels &
Uranium
Other
Coal Moratorium Possibility
7.2%

Doable with
Effort!
How Much Land is Needed?
 12 kW/person x 8.3 billion people = 96 x 1012
watts ≈ 100 terawatts. Current = ~15 TW.)
 Solar energy = ~342 watts/m2 at surface.
 Land area needed at 10% efficiency = ~2.8 x
106 km2.
 Earth land area is ~1.48 x 108 km^2.
 So, ~1.9% of land is needed. Use roofs of
buildings, parking lots, highways &
railways (1.1 x 105 km2) for solar and use
agriculture land and offshore sites for
wind.
Future of Energy for the U.S.
 The calculations are for the entire world.
 The U.S. is far behind many other countries
in developing renewable energy.
 The U.S. has wasted the last decade in
making the needed changes.
 The U.S. must move quickly to use the
remaining fossil-fuels to develop the
infrastructure for renewable energy.
 The biggest need is for personal &
political will to make the necessary
changes!
Peak oil/gas/coal is challenging our Homo-
sapiens brain to recognize the truth of it,
make plans to mitigate it and put the plans
into action. We are having trouble doing
all three.

Global Warming is still a huge problem even
though fossil-fuels depletion will keep it from
growing into the far future. (I have another
This lecture is on the Internet, along with other
related lectures:

 http://www.roperld.com/science/energy.ppt
 http://www.roperld.com/science/GlobalWarm
ingPrediction.ppt (Energy and Global
Warming)
 http://www.roperld.com/science/energyGWN
MIA.ppt (Energy, Global Warming and the
Next Major Ice Age)
Global Warming Due to Fossil Fuels
Worst case
approximation
including
carbon
emissions from
thawing Arctic
tundra and
saturation of
See Six Degrees book by Mark Lynas.
ocean and
vegetation
absorption of
atmospheric
carbon.
Mitigating Global Warming
 Cutting carbon emissions by not burning so
much fossil fuels will increase the needed %
increase of renewable-energy growth, but is still
doable.
 Emphasize Lovin’s negawatts more than
kilowatts.
 Advocate incentives for plug-in hybrid and
electric vehicles.
 Advocate an electric Interstate Railway System.
fines”, not “carbon tax”; frame the issue!
Next Major Ice Age with Global-Warming Blip

Extrapolation of a model fitted to
the last two Major Ice Ages.

Accounting for fact that Earth average temperature changes are
about half Antarctica average temperature changes.
Planning for the Next 1000 years
 It appears certain that, after fossil-fuels have
depleted in the next few hundred years, the
Earth will plunge into the next Major Ice Age
 It would help humans to adjust to the plunge
into the next Major Ice Age if the carbon-
dioxide that is sequestered to reduce global
warming were available for release to slow
down the plunge.
Future Energy
L. David Roper
Professor Emeritus of Physics
Virginia Polytechnic Inst. & St. Univ.
roperld@vt.edu
http://arts.bev.net/RoperLDavid/

```
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