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CHALLENGE 11 The Internet of Internet of Things

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					  CHALLENGE 11:

The Internet of Things




                         301
  CHALLENGE 12:

The Internet of Things




                         302
        THE INTERNET OF THINGS
Sensors everywhere. Infinite storage. Clouds of
               processors.

Every object and person wirelessly connected to
 the Net and constantly, in real time, actualizing
data on both its position in space and its status.




                                                303
 Our ability to capture, warehouse, and
understand massive amounts of data is
changing science, medicine, business,
  and technology and our culture in
                 general.

 As our collection of facts and figures
  grows, so will the opportunity to find
answers to fundamental questions – in a
     different way than yesterday.
                                          304
Because in the era of big data,
    more isn't just more.
     More is different.

       For everybody
     and every company




                                  305
  THE PETABYTE DIFFERENCE
Sixty years ago, digital computers made information
readable.
readable

                                       reachable.
Twenty years ago, the Internet made it reachable

Ten years ago, the first search engine users made the
                  database.
Internet a single database

Now Google and like-minded companies are sifting
through the most measured age in history, treating this
massive corpus as a laboratory of the human
condition.
condition They are the children of the Petabyte Age.


                                                      306
      The Petabyte Age is different
       because more is different

                                  disks.
  Kilobytes were stored on floppy disks
                                   disks.
  Megabytes were stored on hard disks
                                arrays.
  Terabytes were stored in disk arrays
                              cloud.
  Petabytes are stored in the cloud

As we were moving along that progression, we went from
the folder analogy to the file cabinet analogy to the
library analogy to…

  at
…at petabytes we ran out of organizational
analogies.
analogies


                                                 307
  The biggest challenge
    of the Petabyte Age
won't be storing all that data.

    It'll be figuring out
  how to make sense of it.


                                  308
             Those will win
     who, sooner than the others,
  recognize this new opportunity,
as it is only starting to emerge today




                                     309
            LEARNING FROM THE MASSES –
            THE GOOGLE WAY OF SCIENCE?

    There's a dawning sense that in the wireless, self-
                              THINGS,
   configuring INTERNET OF THINGS extremely large
 databases of information, starting in the petabyte level,
                                        things.
           could change how we learn things

  The traditional way of doing science is constructing a
hypothesis to match observed data or to solicit new data.
Here's a bunch of observations; what theory explains the
    data sufficiently so that we can predict the next
                      observation?

It may turn out that tremendously large volumes of data
 are sufficient to skip the theory part in order to make a
                   predicted observation.
                                                     310
           Google was one of the first
                 to notice this
When you misspell a word when googling, Google suggests
the proper spelling. How does it know this?

How does it predict the correctly spelled word?

It is not because it has a theory of good spelling, or has
                         .
mastered spelling rules. In fact Google knows nothing
about spelling rules at all.

Instead Google operates a very large dataset of observations
which show that for any given spelling of a word, x number of
people say "yes" when asked if they meant to spell word "y."

Google's spelling engine consists entirely of these datapoints,
rather than any notion of what correct English spelling is.
                                                        311
 Google uses the same philosophy of learning
via massive data for their translation programs

 They can translate from English to French, or German
 to Chinese by matching up huge datasets of humanly
 translated material

 e.g., Google trained their French/English translation
 engine by feeding it Canadian documents which are
 often released in both English and French versions

 Not one person who worked on the Chinese
 translator spoke Chinese. There was no theory of
 Chinese, no understanding. Just data.

                                                         312
 Last May, to top management
of the leading mobile company
            in Poland:
          Let’s play the
         “what if” game
         for a moment…



                                313
           MAYBE



   SHOULD REINVENT ITSELF
     AS THE EARLY CHILD
      OF PETABYTE AGE?

          QUICKLY -
QUICKER THEN THE COMPETITORS.
                            314
                       Just think:
in the Internet of Things, Era will have vast databases
         on any aspect of its clients’ behavior:

 Where they are, their usual (and unusual) routes
 Where they walk, drive, stay longer (e.g. in front of which shopping window),
 how frequently
 What are the many patterns of their behaviors
 What are their favorite shopping centers, where they go there; what
 shops they step into with/without buying
 Where/what they buy
 Who are their friends/relatives/colleagues
 What are their hobbies/ways of spending free time
 What is their heartbeat (health, generally) at different time of day
 Real-time maps of crowds’ forming and movement superimposed on
 a Google map

 …and much, much more…                                                  315
Mobile maping




                316
     The Personal Data Protection Act
       should not be an issue here
as we will not be processing individual data
 but make consumer’s category profiles




                                          317
        This should also allow e.g.
    for predicting future trends and/or
   developments sooner than by using
  traditional market research methods,
and then selling the analysis of emerging
          patterns to companies



                                       318
   BUT IT WILL NOT BE
 A TELEPHONE BUSINESS
AS WE KNOW IT, ANYMORE!


  Era, hopefully, may soon be
        (should be?)
    in another business…
                                319
…the business of making sense
        of huge data bases
    that Era will have about
 real time customers’ behavior



                           320
   Reinventing       .
     into a powerful
         ‘new-age’
                company?
market research company



                           321
              If so,
then the Google’s business model
  makes perfect sense for you:

     free voice services result in
 greatly increased customer base,
   that results in more and better
            marketing data
        to be sold to business:


                                     322
         FREE SERVICES
  INCREASE CUSTOMER TRAFFIC
THAT IN TURN EXPAND AND ENRICH
    THE SELLABLE DATA BASES




                             323
  The biggest improvements in economy,
business, social organization and scientific
research in the next decades will be based
              on our ability of
    continous analysis of big data sets
                in real time




                                         324
      The emergence of a new
potentiatially powerful and profitable
‘making sense of mass data’ industry




                                    325
     real-          mining:
Mass real-time data mining:
        in search
of unexpected correlations
   Caterina Fake, Hunch Co.
      Video (Wired, August 2010)




                                   326
 Fake’s solution is unique: Get people talking about themselves —
their opinions, tastes, beliefs, idiosyncrasies. Then, once they have
  shared enough information, mine that data for correlations that
     provide precisely tailored recommendations for each user.

Hunch learns about its members through “Teach Hunch About You”
questions. These queries can cover anything — exercise regimens,
 the ethics of SeaWorld, zombies — and the more of them people
      answer, the more complete a profile Hunch can create.

 (Since the site launched in June 2009, it has collected 55 million
    answers to these questions from its 1 million active users.)

 Once Hunch’s algorithm collects enough data, it can start finding
                     surprising correlations.


                                                                  327
328
The new highly powerful instrument for looking
 for the Twillonian ball in the complex reality:

  „From retailing to couterterroism, the ability to
analyse social connections is proving increasingly
           useful” (The Economist, Sept. 4-10, 2010)
                         examples:
              Struggling examples:




                                               329
                           Telecoms
Today:
Today they reward big spenders
Actually:
Actually some thriftier customers are actually more valuable as being
„inluencers” – persuading their friends and colleagues to follow them to
rival („cheaper”) operator
      trick:
The trick to identify such trendsetting clients by crunching vast
quantities of calling data with sophisticated „network analysis” software
Instead of looking at a call record of a single customer at a time (today)
it looks at customers within the context of their social network
People at the top of social pecking order: often receive quick callbacks,
do not worry about calling other people late at night, and tend to get
more calls at times when social events are most often organized (Friday
afternoons), they usually make long calls and receive short ones
Once identified, they may be kept on board with discounts and
promotions
Bharti Airtel, India (3B calls/day) does exactly that with great
success in preventing network switching
                                                                  330
     The market for such software
             is booming
 At least 100 such programs for link analysis or
predictive analysis today
 The raw data used extend far beyond phone records;
they include information form private, governmental
entities and Internet sources (eg. Facebook)
 IBM’s annual sales will exceed $15B by 2015
 In the past 5 years IBM spent >$11B buying makers of network-
 analysis software
Gartner: it’s the no. 2 technology of strategic
business operations meriting significant investment


                                                           331
      Modelling social relationships
                              power”
      to create an „index of power”


In some companies, e-mails are analysed automatically
to help bosses manage their workers

Employees who are often asked advise may be good
candidates for promotions, for example




                                                 332
                   Financial firms:
                  uncovering fraud
The latest version of SAS’s software identifies risky
borrowers by examining their social networks and IRS
records
Eg.: an applicant may be a bad risk, or even fraudster, if
he plans to launch a type of business which has no links
in his social network, education, previous business
dealings or travel history, which can be pieced together
with credit-card records or if he has asociation with
known criminals (perheps, in the past, his girlfriend has
shared an address with a convict ☺)
U.S. Recovery Accountability and Transparency Board
combs Treasury and law-enforcement databases to
uncover „non-obvious relationships” triggering so far 250
criminal investigations and 400 audits                 333
   Fighting crime in Richmond, Virginia


Network-analysis to predict crime by analysing the
social networks around suspects, such as dealing with
employers, collection agencies and the Dept. of Motor
Vehicles

Monitoring Facebook, MySpace, Twitter to determine
where the next crazy festivities will be
  Saving money by deploying officers to places expected to
  need them

Crime has „dramatically declined” as a result



                                                      334
              Counterterrorism
Terrorist groups are often decentralized and thus
difficult to decipher
It turns, though, that key terrorists are seemingly low-
level people, such as drivers and guides who keep
addresses, phone numbers memorised
They have a high level of conectedness
To find them, analysts map „structural signatures” such
as short phone calls made to the same number before
and after the attack
The capture of Saddam Hussain in 2003 was due
largely to the mapping of the social networks of his
former driver as senior members of Iraqi regime were
mostly clueless about his whereabouts
                                                       335
 The next step beyond mapping influence
between individuals is to map the influence
                                 society:
   between larger segments of society
     predicting wars, conflicts, crisis,
        movements of ideas, etc
          (see: The Economist, Sept. 4-10, 2010)




                                                   336
          The skill of selecting
        and analysing information
   is becoming more critical than ever.

The number and complexity of information
       is growing exponentially
      and the time stays the same




                                          337
Brain as the major bottle neck in the
system of information processing?




The importance of designing efficient
  interfaces between the world of
  information and a human being
                                    338
The problem is not ‘information overload’
        but not sufficient filters
 “New communication senses will be needed in the future to
 enable people to absorb the enormous mass of information
 with which they are confronted. The user interfaces we use
 today to transmit information to our brains threaten to create
 a real bottleneck for new broadband services. The
 bottleneck is thus our embodied brain, not our capacity
 to boost cable or wireless connectivity.
 The design challenge in implementing digital connectivity in
 an analogue environment lies in creating a working concept
 of corporal literacy that will inform a design for all the
 senses.
  Martin Rantzer of Ericsson Foresight, A Future World of Supersenses



                                                                        339
INFO PORN: fighting the bottle neck


 The marriage of graphic design with data or
 information is one of the best evolutions brought
 by modern technology. Some call it infographics,
 infoporn or dataporn.

 In the Petabyte Age, the information and data
 used for strategic analysis will have to be more
 eye-catching, stimulating and easier to follow
 eye-
 despite the fact of being a cluster of many
 multi-                                     real-
 multi-dimensional variables representing real-
 time dynamics of the system under study
                                                340
  Example: Flight path renderings organized by
altitude, make, and models of more than 205,000
aircraft monitored by the FAA on August 12, 2008




                                             341
        DATA VISUALIZATION
  FOR BUSINESS – some exciting examples
http://www.austinstartup.com/2009/12/informavore-
              the-best-in-dataporn/

              The Flare dependancy graph




                                               342
343
344
345
346
347
348
 The Netflix’s algorithm:
Movie-
Movie-map of 5000 movies




                            349
  The Netflix’s algorithm:
             similar’
Clasters of ‘similar ’ movies




                                350
              See 50 coolest
      data visualization services at:
http://www.webdesignerdepot.com/2009/
      06/50-great-examples-of-data-
      06/50-great-examples-of-data-
              visualization/




                                  351
  The Real Time Rome project
Real Time Rome is the
MIT SENSEable City
Lab’s project aggregating
data from cell phones,
busies and taxis in Rome
to better understand
urban dynamics in real
time




                               352
The system




             353
Questions to be answered:




                            354
355
356
357
358
     ...and there comes
yet quite opposite problem...




                                359
The discreet charm of the
  medieval Denmark ☺




                            360
           The Internet cannot forget
The Hamlet’s choice was easy: to be or not to be
Today, the choice is not just about the real world but also our
digital footprints in the virtual world
              deathlessness’:
‘Distributed deathlessness’: – a single Internet log-in gives
eternal (virtual) life
  Facebook, after the Virginia Tech killing in 2007 has a function
  of post-mortem closing (memorializing) a profile

AssetLock.net, LegacyLocker.com, Deathswitch.com:
deleting the digital footprint (kept in a virtuallocker)
  Scott Brown: inevitability of necro-puppetry industry –
  maintaining our „life” on-lin after death ☺

Tommorow’
Tommorow’s serious problem: how to clean
       cloud?
up the cloud?
                                                               361
362
                                   Rules:
• Starting August 15, I will try to stay hidden for 30 days. Not even my closest
friends or my editors will know where I am.
• I’ll remain in the US and will be online regularly.
• I will continue to use social networking sites like Facebook and Twitter, and
I’ll make cell phone calls.
• I’ll generally stay in the kind of social environment I like to live in (no hiding
in a cabin in Montana), and I’ll keep track of my pursuers, searching
constantly for news about myself.
• Information about me will be posted at: wired.com/vanish
• The Web page will provide everything a plugged-in investigator would have,
including activity on my frequent flier, credit card, and ATM accounts — if I’m
foolish enough to use them.
• Wired will post interviews with my friends and family members and log calls
made by my usual phones and emails sent from my usual addresses.
• To win, you have to locate me between August 15 and September 15.         363
364
         What started as an exercise in escape
quickly became a cross between a massively multiplayer
            online game and a reality show
 A staggeringly large community arose spontaneously, splintered
 into organized groups, and set to work turning over every rock in
 Ratliff’s life

 It topped out at 600 Twitter posts a da.

 The hunters knew the names of his cat sitter and his mechanic, his
 favorite authors, his childhood nicknames

  They found every article he’d ever written; they found recent
 videos of him.

 They discovered and published every address he’d ever had in the
 US, from Atlanta to Hawaii, together with the full name and age of
 every member of his family

 They discovered almost every available piece of data about Ratliff
                                                                     365
             More at:
http://www.wired.com/vanish/200
         9/11/ff_vanish2/




                              366
    What the Internet of Things
                   businesses?
    means for your businesses?

Will it bring a chance/threat for your firm
          and its business model?

   How can you use the new ways of
 collecting, processing and vizualizing
 collecting,
    the vast amounts of information
                           strategies?
  to develop and test your strategies?

                                        367
               The Petabyte Age
is still only the fuzzy edge of the horizon.

  But it will move to the center sooner
              than you expect.




                                          368
   Eric Schmidt, Google, in May 2010, responding to the
  acquisitions that Google was spying on individuals while
                   developing StreetView:

 ”As a society, we still haven’t come to the
point of knowing what we want to do with all
  that new technology and what is right”




                                                        369
         It’s even more true
about the future petabyte-size clouds
           of real time data
 on every aspect of human condition




                                        370
                   Thus,
         paraphrasing Eric Schmidt:

”As a society, and as companies, we still haven’t
come to the point of knowing what we want to do
  with all that new vast data bases on human
  condition that will available in the Internet of
 Things, and what is right/not right in that area”




                                               371
               Well,
     we may still don’t know it
but we can certainly get some hints
     once we start thinking –
             today…




                                      372
      Remember?:
    The main danger
    to any company
     is an inability
 to see the connection
between today’s fiction
and tomorrow’s reality


                          373
   Challenge 12:

   The end of PC,
and the emergence of
        computing?
 cloud computing?




                       374
            Is iPad starting a revolution?
The iPad is designed as a center for all media: reading, gaming, and media
consumption.

It offers a streamlined yet powerful intuitive experience that’s psychically in tune
with our mobile, attention-challenged, super-connected new century. Instant-on
power. Lightning-fast multitouch response.

Native applications downloaded from a single source that simplifies purchases,
organizes updates, and ensures security.

Apple has even developed a custom chip, the A4, that both powers the machine
and helps extend its battery life to 10 hours.

The iPad’s price puts it in the zone of high-end netbooks: $500 for a basic 16-gig,
Wi-Fi-only model.

But don’t call it a netbook, a category Jobs went out of his way to trash as a
crummy compromise.

The iPad is the first embodiment of an entirely new category, one that Jobs hopes
will write the obituary for the computing paradigm that Apple itself helped develop.

If Jobs has his way, before long we may be using our laptops primarily as base
stations for syncing our iPads
                                                                                 375
          THE DAWN OF THE „PC ERA”:
     is the iPad the end to it or the beginning
                   of a new one?
The GUI was designed in ‘60-’70, even before the PC era

Most of today’s software has its roots in the pre-Internet era when
memory was expensive, computers thousands times slower, and
applications were sold in boxes for hundreds of dollars

                                                 post-
iPad aspires to the role of the central media of post-PC era, but it can
also be regarded as the ending of PC paradigm

The iPad’s system is even more closed than any time before in Apple –
all the applications have to go through Cupertino (Apple’s headquarter),
and the software developers and content editors have to make all to
transactions through the Apple Application Store

Apple favors the pristine orderliness of autocracy to the messy freedom
of an open system.

iPad sets the “centralistic” model of development                     376
                Two visions
       for the future of computing
To win, however, Apple has to fight the other aspirants who want to
dominate the future – like Google as the iPad represents a head-
butt to another bold new model for computing: Google’s Chrome
OS.

Google Chrome OS – radically new paradigm

Google is an emanation of Internet, Chrome is an emanation of Google,
and not just another application for being used in Internet

Apple offers a vision of a well organized (by Apple itself) computer world
where everything fits the central interface elegantly polished (by Apple,
as well)

Google thinks the OS should be invisible

The coming end to the PC we know – with files and applications on HD

Google’s browser-centric approach: Chrome OS directs the user
straight to the “Internet cloud” assuming that the Web will provide us
with everything we need from native-quality applications to printer
drivers
                                                                         377
        Two competing philosophes
        of the iWorld’s development

‘Curated Computing’ (as Sara Epps calls it)
as opposed to personal (free) computing
  Apple vs. Facebook




                                              378
               Sundar Pichai, VP, Google:
       „Desktop software is dead!”

“In the past 10 years, we’ve seen almost no new major
native applications, with the exception of Skype,
iTunes, Google Desktop, and the Firefox and Chrome
browsers.

We are betting on the fact that all the user will need are
advanced Web apps.

The Web can’t currently handle powerful games but
new technologies like Native Client and HTML5 will fix
that problem.”


                                                     379
          MS’s Chief strategy officer Craig Mundie:
“…it’s all part of a transition: from the GUI — the
graphical user interface that began with Mac and
 Windows - to the NUI - a natural user interface
based on touch, gestures, and voice recognition”




            Remember the 6th Sense Computing?
                                                      380
 While Google and Apple are positioning themselves as pioneers
  of the next paradigm, Microsoft - the company that dominates
          the current one – has a more iterative approach
It takes an evolutionary path integrating the seismic changes in the digital world
into its flagship products, without any big leaps

3 years ago, MS introduced Surface, an exciting technology that lets people use
their fingers and objects to interact with table-sized displays. With shockingly bad
marketing it is still just a novelty in a few hotel lobbies and retail stores

Soon, Xbox will implement a motion-tracking system called Project Natal

Incremental change, however, can ultimately mean no change. A decade ago,
Microsoft came up with its own vision of Tablet. And it was a flop

Microsoft seems locked into producing improved versions of its programs every
few years. That means a decade from now, MS’ answer to the challenges from
Apple and Google will be… yet another Windows -10?
   Remember Kevin Kelly on lily pond?

MS “noticed” Internet and cloud computing only a few years ago

                                                                            381
      Most of the „old” IT firms
   (and, indirectly, many others)
                        paradigm
   was founded on PC paradigm,
that has become a part their „DNA”.

(is that true for any of your companies?)




                                            382
If, indeed, the paradigm is changing,
  then the firms that are based on it
         must not only change
        but change their DNA!




                                        383
Formerly, companies based their identity on
                    history.
              their history

 Today, many of them have to reinvent it
                        future.
          base on their future




                                        384
  CHALLENGE 13:

Preserving/
Preserving/creating
             mind’
 the ‘garage mind’




                      385
In the contemporary marketplace, most bigger,
  new businesses start as a result of years of
    market research, planning and strategic
                 investments

Venture capitalists and big-money consultants
  get together with ideas that are based on
 years of experience and expertise, and they
       work in order to maximize profits



                                            386
    While, there are still millions of individual
entrepreneurs that start successful companies on
 their own, single-handedly, out of impulse and
         based on a single bright idea




They are typically small to medium-sized at best,
and they reach their growth (maximum?) capacity
              within several years

                                            387
  And then… they stop growing,
          or drop dead


                          big,
     or unexpectedly turn big
frequently with no apparent reason




                                 388
WHY DOES IT HAPPEN?
- is a powerful question




                           389
         THE ROLE OF GARAGE
            IN THE HISTORY
        OF MODERN CIVILIZATION

In the U.S., the country of innovations and cars,
many new technologies, products, business models
and great (later) companies were started by
passionate ‘nuts’ in their parents’ garages




                                               390
          It’s highly educative
   to study what happened to them
(innovations, innovators, companies)
                  later,
                  later after
         they left the garage…
             (if they ever did)




                                  391
      Look who started in a garage
         (or other obscure place)
HP
Apple
Microsoft
Wrigley
Google
Starbucks
eBay
Facebook (dorm)
Threadless (studio appt.)
YouTube (office)
LinkedIn (living room)
Nike (car trunk)
Lotus Cars
Motorola
Harley Davidson
…and many more
                                     392
   It is important to study
        that phenomena
as even the „grown up” firms
 (maybe even them, specially)
                 mind”
need the „garage mind” today
The challenge for evry big company today,
 including those who started in a garage,
          is re-inventing itself into
            a FERTILE PLATFORM
   for setting up, finding and/or supporting
              “INNER GARAGES”

          - in order to become

       GARAGE-
     A GARAGE-MINDED COMPANY
   „Implanting” the garage elements
       in a grown up company

Google: 20% time for new projects, excessive new
products (in Beta), company restaurants as incubators

IBM: open source,

3M: innovation culture

Cisco: „growing” start-ups

P&G: open innovation

etc.
    Being big or small doesn’t matter.
   Being great at what you do - matters.


The only way you can make a large system that
works is to evolve it from a small system that
works

Unfortunately, it is not enough, though!

It takes much more than a perfect small
company to become eventually a successful big
company



                                             396
     Great companies aren’t born,
            they’re grown

Great companies need to grow into great
companies

They need room to make mistakes

They need room to go unnoticed for a while

They’re just like people




                                             397
            An artificial contradiction:
Creative, disordered passion (a garage) or “hard,
   classic management” (grow up company)




The main problem of garage entrepreneurs
and grown up companies is how to maintain
the flow of fresh ideas and high level of
adrenaline AFTER the company becomes big
and enjoys success (so far)?
  Management is (almost) never about 0-1:0-
good-or-bad, yes-or-no, wise-or-stupid, short
time-or-long time, people-or-profit, tradition-
               or-novelty, etc.

        MANAGEMENT IS ABOUT
                FINE LINES
        and the necessity of finding
        the right balance constantly


                                           399
Finding the fine line
and the balance
between:
between:


 hierarchy and spontaneity
 necessary control and tendency for experimentation
 benefits of standardization and leaving a space for
 “deviations”
 ‘closed’ and ‘open’ innovation
 useful employee integration and protecting the
 creative “unadjusted”

Most companies clearly have problem with it
                                                  400
     In the Petabayte Age, only
               companies,
    the hybrid companies
             will survive,
 able to combine the two seemingly
contradictive organizational formulas:

      RIGOR and VIGOR
“Wealth in this new regime flows directly
from innovation, not optimization. That is,
  wealth is not gained by perfecting the
   known, but by imperfectly seizing the
  unknown.” —Kevin Kelly, New Rules for the New Economy




                                                      402
                     robots!”
„Productivity is for robots!”
   You will profit more by creating new
   opportunities than by perfecting the old
   ones
   In the new era, doing the best next thing is
   more fruitful than doing the same thing
   better




                                          403
 “imperfectly seizing the unknown”
– wouldn’t that be the best definition of
    entrepreneurship and business
          innovation today?




                                        404
  An (almost) sure recipe for disaster
(as learned from Duke Nukem 3D video game during 12
        years of its striving for the sequel succes)


 Excesive perfectionism

 Lots of money

 Obsession with upgrades

 No specific deadlines for innovations (new product
 launches)




                                                 405
   Do your companies tend to
understand chances early enough?

   Do they allow people (units)
          to take risk?



                                  406
“If everybody around says
    your idea is brilliant,
                late!”
       it’s too late!”




                              407
             One of the things
   that makes a great company today
      (in your business, especially)
                is realizing
  that somewhere on the planet Earth,
          in some lousy garage,
                                   better!
there’s a kid who’s going to do it better!

                                             408
      Kelly:
Kevin Kelly:


                     robots!”
„Productivity is for robots!”
You will profit more by creating new
opportunities than by perfecting the old
ones
Productivity is not something that you
should care for the most
In the new era, doing the best next thing is
more fruitful than doing the same thing
better
Notion of “creative waste”; Internet?
                                           409
  Business is a lily pond...
Every new used
opportunity creates at
least 2 more (?)
This way, it’s not only
the lilies that are
growing but also the
pond itself!



                               410
“Wealth in this new regime flows directly from
innovation, not optimization. That is, wealth is
  not gained by perfecting the known, but by
imperfectly seizing the unknown.” —Kevin Kelly, New
                Rules for the New Economy




                                                  411
                            unknown”
   “Imperfectly seizing the unknown”
– wouldn’t that be the best definition of “a
       garage entrepreneurship”
       and “a garage mentality”?
          Never underestimate a power
            of a ‘garage mentality’.




     “Google’s not a real company. It’s a house of cards.”           *
                 Steve Balmer, Microsoft’s CEO, in 2005


*and then he continued:    ”F*ing Eric Schmidt is a f*ing p*ssy. I'm
going to fu*ing bury that guy, I have done it before, and I will do it
             again. I'm going to fu*ing kill Google." ....               413
     Companies are like people –
     they all will eventually suffer
   from sclerosis and osteoporosis

  The high-spirited visionaries in their
garages should keep it on mind from the
            very beginning


                                           414
 ...because                      economy,
 ...because in the new petabyte economy,
organizational sclerosis and osteoporosis
            are deadly illnesses
 As soon as in 1998, the first year of Google’s
 existence, its creators Larry Page and Sergey
                       Brown,
Brin hired Ms. Shona Brown a co-author of the
famous book on management strategies on the
                                         Chaos.
edge of chaos (1998) as Google’s VP for Chaos

  She was to fight the Google’s aging signs.

  As it shows, the Company has been quite
                                 far.
          successful in that, so far
                                               416
Ever wondered?

 Why some companies made it big (some
 time from the scratch)?
 Why did the zillions of other startups not
 succeed in becoming big but stayed small or
 just dropped dead?
 What are challenges, the rivers to cross,
 on the way (from garage) to success or
 even bigness?
                                          417
   Because they spotted the chance
                    horizon,
            on the horizon,
      that others did not noticed,
                  and
    in the process of development
they were able to find the right balance
     between rigor and vigor
  CHALLENGE 14:

The strategy paradox




                       419
 THE STRATEGY PARADOX
Strategies based on assumptions about the
future

Future is unfortunately highly unpredictable -
in most cases different or comes earlier than
expected

In most cases radical strategies cannot be
adjusted if the future is different




                                          420
             Thus:
  STRATEGIES WITH THE GREATEST
    CHANCES FOR SUCCESS ARE,
        AT THE SAME TIME,
THE STRATEGIES WITH THE GREATEST
       CHANCES OF FAILURE!




                             421
            Thus:
THE OPPOSITE OF THE SUCCESS
 STRATEGY IS NOT THE FAILURE
        STRATEGY BUT
   THE MEDIOCRE (SURVIVAL)
          STRATEGY

Paradoxically, the best companies, in many
cases, have more in common with those who
failed in a spectacular way than with those who
simply quietly survived

The same characteristics that we consider
determinants of high achievements may also be
the sources of falling down

                                          422
Desperate waiting for “the end” of the
      crisis makes no sense.

Returning to yesterday’s “normality”
          is not possible.

 The ‘new normality’ is emerging!



                                    423
    Wise companies today need
    risky strategies of success,
  and not merely the strategies of
              survival,
in order to better and quicker than
their competitors get ready for the
                normality!
           new normality


                                 424
          Today, waiting
“until we get ready for innovation”
         makes no sense.

       By the time you realize
    that your piece of the floor
       is ready for innovation,
   it’s almost certainly too late.

It’s definitely not too early.
                                      425
              Remember:
The future of your company today
        is determined by:

  Unsatisfied, “new” customers
  Unnoticed competitors from outside of your
  sector
  Unappreciated, disappointed partners
  Unexpected technologies
            Nonintegrated”
  And...: “Nonintegrated” employees, highly
  irritating with their constant curiosity for the
  world, who are able to embrace uncertainty!

                                             426
                 Seth Godin:
HERETICS ARE THE LEADERS TODAY

     The marketplace now rewards
           (and embraces)
             the heretics!

Especially, in the fast moving sectors like
              most of yours’.
                                        427
   “This shift may be bigger
        than you think

Suddenly, heretics, troublemakers,
 and change agents aren’t merely
       thorns in your foot –
they are the keys to your success”


                                428
         Steve Jobs
   to Stanford graduates:

      hungry,      foolish!”
„Stay hungry, stay foolish!”




                               429
Strategic management today:




 CONNECTING THE DOTS


                              430

				
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