Gangs In England

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					 Guns and Gangs: What
    should we do?
        Professor Gary Mauser
Institute for Canadian Urban Research
                Studies
  Faculty of Business Administration
        Simon Fraser University
A Fraser Institute Policy
       Briefing
    Professor Gary Mauser
        Fraser Institute
        Vancouver , BC
       January 18, 2006
What is the current situation in
           Canada?
• Definitions: Crime, violent crime, property
  crime
• Is violent crime increasing?
• Is homicide increasing or decreasing?
• Is gang crime increasing?
• It all depends upon base year!
Homicide rates stable for past 5
         or 10 years
 3.00                                                                                12


 2.50                                                                                10




                                                                                          United States per 100,000
 2.00                                                                                8

                                                                                                                      CDN
 1.50                                                                                6                                US


 1.00                                                                                4


 0.50                                                                                2


 -                                                                                   0
        1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
                                 Source: FBI and Juristat
Violent crime stable for past 5
          or 10 years
                     Fig.8. Violent Crime Trends in Canada and US

1200

1000

 800

                                                                                          CDN
 600
                                                                                          US

 400

 200

   0
       2


             4


                    6


                           8


                                  0


                                          2


                                                 4


                                                         6


                                                                8


                                                                       0


                                                                              2


                                                                                     4
    8


              8


                     8


                            8


                                   9


                                          9


                                                  9


                                                         9


                                                                 9


                                                                        0


                                                                               0


                                                                                      0
 19


           19


                  19


                         19


                                19


                                       19


                                               19


                                                      19


                                                              19


                                                                     20


                                                                            20


                                                                                   20
                                Source: Statistics Canada, FBI UCR
          Gang-related homicide
               increasing
                          Fig. 7. Gang-related homicide trend

18                                                                 2.5
16
14                                                                 2.0




                                                                         Rate per 100,000
12
                                                                   1.5
10                                                                                          % gang related
                                              \                                             Total homicide rate
 8
                                                                   1.0
 6
 4                                                                 0.5
 2
 0                                                                 0.0
     1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
                           Source: Juristat
Handgun homicide increasing
120


100


 80

                                                                    # Handgun homicides
 60
                                                                    # Long gun homicides


 40


 20


  0
      1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
                        Source: Jursitat, Stats Can
                 Assessment
•   Violent crime is stable for past 5-10 years
•   Homicide is stable for past 5-10 years
•   Handgun homicide is increasing
•   Gang homicide is increasing

• Where do crime guns coming from?
Several studies of ‘crime guns’
• Toronto Police Services (2004)
  –   123 crime guns
  –   67% - origin impossible to determine
  –    9% - stolen from Canadian gun owners
  –   24% - smuggled from US

• Toronto Police Annual Report (2000)
  – 2% of gun stolen from Canadian owners
Several studies of ‘crime guns’
• Toronto Police Services (2005)
  –   214 crime guns
  –   45% - origin impossible to determine
  –   16% - stolen from Canadian gun owners
  –   38% - smuggled from US
Several studies of ‘crime guns’
• Peel Regional Police, Project Gun Runner (1993)
   – 14% - stolen from Canadian gun owners


• Homicide Survey Project (CCJS)
   – 1,349 firearms related homicides (1997-2004)
   – 748 firearms registration status known
   – 16% found in the registry
How many guns have the Police
     and Military lost?
• 108 guns reported lost or missing by the RCMP in
  2003
• Over 400 guns reported lost by Canadian Military
  in 2002
• Police and military do not have to register their
  firearms
• A potentially large source of crime guns.
• Police and military do not have to report regularly
  to Parliament
 Community oriented policing

• There are three main goals:
  – Take repeat offenders off the streets,
  – Identify hot spots, and
  – Coordinate with community leaders to identify
    needs and work together to solve common
    problems.
  Platforms of the three major
   parties reflect this wisdom
• Liberal:
   – Work with municipalities, police, etc to develop
     responses
   – Implement tougher sentencing for gun crimes and for
     trafficking
   – Increase number of RCMP officers
   – Control the cost of the gun registry
   – Ban and confiscate handguns
         NDP Party platform
• NDP:
  – Focus on eliminating poverty
  – Implement tougher sentencing
     • Support reverse-onus for bail
     • `4-year minimum sentences for importing illegal
       guns, possession and sale of restricted weapons
  – Arming border officers
  – Ban semi-automatic firearms
  Conservative Party platform
• Conservative:
  – Hire at least 2,500 more RCMP officers
  – 5 - 10- year mandatory minimum prison sentences for
    major gun offences
  – End statutory release and conditional sentences
  – Invest $50 million over five years in programs to
    promote crime prevention and assist youth at risk.
  – Scrap the gun registry
                 Similarities

• All three parties support basic gun legislation

• All three parties want increased law enforcement

• All three parties encourage helping local
  communities with crime prevention
              Differences
• Liberals and NDP propose banning more
  guns

• Conservatives want more police and longer
  prison sentences

• What does the research say works?
        What’s to be done?
• Very few good Canadian research studies
• More research needed on effectiveness of
  crime fighting strategies
• Federal government encourages “program
  research” not scientific research
      How effective is the gun
            registry?
• Since the registry began in 1998:
• The violent crime rate has declined by 4%.
• The homicide rate has increased by 3%.
• Gang-related homicides have increased
  substantially.
• Suicide rates have declined by 2%
• No empirical link can be found between the
  registry and these changes.
    Factors driving homicide in
             Canada

  1977 Firearm Law
   % Native Indian
    % Immigrants
     % Young Men
Unemployment Rate                                                                T-ratio
    Clearance Rate                                                               Coefficient

             Time
         Constant
                (4.00) (2.00)    -     2.00   4.00   6.00   8.00   10.00 12.00
                                Source: Mauser and Holmes (1992)
                          Factors driving robbery in
                                   Canada
                                  1991 gun law
                                  1977 gun law
Independent variables




                                     Constant
                                Clearance rate
                                    % Natives
                              Personal income
                                 % Young men
                                     UI claims
                        % Internal immigration
                        % Foreign immigration
                                                 -8   -6        -4     -2      0      2      4         6   8

                                                              Source: Mauser and Maki (2002)
                                                           t-ratios greater than ± 2 are significant
  Do Gun Bans Work?
A review of crime trends in several
    English Speaking countries
   Gun bans failed in several
   English-speaking countries
• The United Kingdom
  – Handguns were banned handguns in 1997 but gun
    crime in England and Wales nearly doubled in the
    seven years from 1996 to 2003.
  – The rate of serious violent crime has soared by 88
    percent:
     • armed robberies by 101 percent,
     • rapes by 105 percent and
     • homicide by 24 percent since 1996.
        Violent crime in the UK
           Fig. 10. Violent Crime Trends in England & Wales and US

2500

2000


1500
                                                                                                 E&W
                                                                                                 USA
1000


 500


   0
   82


          84


                 86


                        88


                               90


                                      92


                                             94


                                                    96


                                                              98


                                                                        99


                                                                                  01


                                                                                            03
 19


        19


               19


                      19


                             19


                                    19


                                           19


                                                  19


                                                           7/


                                                                     8/


                                                                               0/


                                                                                         2/
                                                            9


                                                                      9


                                                                                0


                                                                                          0
                                                         19


                                                                   19


                                                                             20


                                                                                       20
                                Source: Home Office and FBI
Homicide trend in England &
           Wales
2.5                                                                            12




                                                                                    Homicide in US (per 100,000)
                                                                               10
 2

                                                                               8
1.5
                                                                               6
 1
                                                                               4
                                                                        E&W
                                                                        USA
0.5
                                                                               2

 0                                                                             0
  81


        83


              85


                    87


                          89


                                   91


                                         93


                                               95


                                                      97


                                                             99


                                                                   01


                                                                          03
19


       19


             19


                   19


                         19


                                 19


                                        19


                                              19


                                                    19


                                                            19


                                                                  20


                                                                         20
                              Source: FBI and Home Office
            Homicide in Scotland
140


120


100


 80


 60


 40


 20


  0
  78


        80


              82


                    84


                          86


                                88


                                       90


                                               92


                                                      94


                                                             96


                                                                   98


                                                                         00


                                                                               02
19


       19


             19


                   19


                         19


                               19


                                     19


                                             19


                                                     19


                                                            19


                                                                  19


                                                                        20


                                                                              20
                               Source: Scottish Executive
        Gun ban in Australia
• Australia
  – Australia banned many types of guns in 1996.
  – While murder rates have remained unchanged,
  – armed robbery rates averaged 59 percent higher
    in the eight years after the law was passed
    (from 1997 to 2004) than in 1995.
       Violent crime in Australia
                 Fig. 9. Violent Crime Trends in Australia and US

1200

1000

 800

                                                                              Australia
 600
                                                                              USA

 400

 200

   0
       1995   1996   1997   1998   1999   2000    2001   2002   2003   2004
                               Sources: ABS and FBI
         Gun bans have failed

• Republic of Ireland
   – The Republic of Ireland banned and confiscated almost
     all firearms in 1972, but murder rates had risen by 5
     fold by 1974 and was remained at least 30 percent
     higher than the pre-ban rate
• Jamaica
   – Jamaica banned all guns in 1974, but murder rates
     almost doubled from 11.5 per 100,000 in 1973 to 19.5
     in 1977, and 41.7 in 1980
      Murder in the Republic of
              Ireland
 60


 50


 40


 30


 20


 10


  0
  45

         48

                51

                       54

                              57

                                     60

                                            63

                                                   66

                                                          69

                                                                 72

                                                                        75

                                                                               78

                                                                                      81

                                                                                             84

                                                                                                    87

                                                                                                           90

                                                                                                                  93

                                                                                                                         96

                                                                                                                                99

                                                                                                                                       02
19

       19

              19

                     19

                            19

                                   19

                                          19

                                                 19

                                                        19

                                                               19

                                                                      19

                                                                             19

                                                                                    19

                                                                                           19

                                                                                                  19

                                                                                                         19

                                                                                                                19

                                                                                                                       19

                                                                                                                              19

                                                                                                                                     20
                                                  Source: Garda Stochana Annual Reports
         Murder rate in Jamaica
  45

  40

  35

  30

  25

  20

  15

  10

  5

  0
  70

         72

                74

                       76

                               78

                                      80

                                             82

                                                    84

                                                           86

                                                                  88

                                                                         90

                                                                                92

                                                                                       94

                                                                                              96

                                                                                                     98

                                                                                                            00
19

       19

              19

                     19

                             19

                                    19

                                           19

                                                  19

                                                         19

                                                                19

                                                                       19

                                                                              19

                                                                                     19

                                                                                            19

                                                                                                   19

                                                                                                          20
                            Source: Professor A. Francis, University West Indies
Violent crime rate in Jamaica
                                                       Violent Crime Index for Jamaica (1970-2000)

200

180
160

140

120
100

 80

 60

 40

 20

  0
      1970
             1971
                    1972
                           1973
                                  1974
                                         1975
                                                1976
                                                       1977
                                                              1978
                                                                     1979
                                                                            1980
                                                                                   1981
                                                                                          1982
                                                                                                 1983
                                                                                                        1984
                                                                                                               1985
                                                                                                                      1986
                                                                                                                             1987
                                                                                                                                    1988
                                                                                                                                           1989
                                                                                                                                                  1990
                                                                                                                                                         1991
                                                                                                                                                                1992
                                                                                                                                                                       1993
                                                                                                                                                                              1994
                                                                                                                                                                                     1995
                                                                                                                                                                                            1996
                                                                                                                                                                                                   1997
                                                                                                                                                                                                          1998
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 1999
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2000
                                                              Source: Professor A. Francis, University West Indies
Criminal violence is decreasing
      in the US - Why?
• Violent crime increasing in almost all
  English speaking countries
• But both violent crime and homicide are
  decreasing in the US

• Why
      What is the US doing?

• Higher rates of conviction
  – More police - more arrests
  – More convictions
• Greater punishment
  – Longer sentences
  – Capital punishment
• Concealed carry laws
                            -
                                       100.0
                                               150.0
                                                       200.0
                                                               250.0




                                50.0
                  19
                       62
                  19
                       64
                  19
                       66
                  19
                       68
                  19
                       70
                  19
                       72
                  19
                       74
                  19
                       76
                  19
                       78
                  19
                       80
                  19
                       82
                  19
                       84
                  19



Source: Can Sim
                                                                       Police Officers per Capita




                       86
                                                                                                    Canada




                  19
                       88
                  19
                       90
                  19
                       92
                  19
                       94
                  19
                       96
                  19
                       98
                  20
                       00
                  20
                       02
    High recidivism rates in
           Canada
• 68% of accused adult murderers had a
  Canadian criminal record
• 54% of accused youth murderers had a
  Canadian criminal record
• Percentages with foreign criminal
  records unknown
     Increased imprisonment in
           United States
           Sentenced Prisoners in State and Federal Institutions
600

500

400

300

200

100

  0
 25

       29

             33

                   37

                         41

                               45

                                     49

                                           53

                                                 57

                                                       61

                                                             65

                                                                   69

                                                                         73

                                                                               77

                                                                                     81

                                                                                           85

                                                                                                 89

                                                                                                       93

                                                                                                             97

                                                                                                                   01
19

      19

            19

                  19

                        19

                              19

                                    19

                                          19

                                                19

                                                      19

                                                            19

                                                                  19

                                                                        19

                                                                              19

                                                                                    19

                                                                                          19

                                                                                                19

                                                                                                      19

                                                                                                            19

                                                                                                                  20
                                          Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics
Concealed carry laws in United
            States
       Spread of Concealed Carry Laws in United States
  40                                                70%
  35                                                60%




                                                          Percentage of US Pop with
  30




                                                              Concealed Carry
                                                    50%
  25
                                                    40%
                                                                                      Number of States
  20
                                                                                      Share of Population
                                                    30%
  15
                                                    20%
  10
   5                                                10%

   0                                                0%
      75
      83

      85
      87
      89

      90
      91

      94
      95
      96

      01
      03
      04
     75
   19
   19

   19
   19
   19

   19
   19

   19
   19
   19

   20
   20
   20
   e-
 pr




         Source: NRA website and US Census Bureau
Capital punishment in United
           States
           Capital Punishment in the United States, 1977 - 2004
120

100

 80

 60

 40

 20

  0
      7


            9


                   1


                          3


                                 5


                                        7


                                               9


                                                       1


                                                              3


                                                                      5


                                                                               7


                                                                                      9


                                                                                             1


                                                                                                    3
   7


             7


                    8


                           8


                                  8


                                         8


                                                8


                                                       9


                                                               9


                                                                      9


                                                                                9


                                                                                       9


                                                                                              0


                                                                                                     0
19


          19


                 19


                        19


                               19


                                      19


                                             19


                                                    19


                                                            19


                                                                   19


                                                                             19


                                                                                    19


                                                                                           20


                                                                                                  20
                                      Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics
            In conclusion:
          the research shows

• Longer prison sentences reduce crime rates.

• Concealed carry reduces crime rates.

• No evidence that gun bans reduce violent crime in
  any country in the world.
    Research on the effectiveness of
              gun laws
•   Kleck, Point Blank, 1991,
•   Kleck, Gary. Targeting Guns, Firearms and Their Control. New York,
    Aldine de Gruyter. 1997.
•   Centers for Disease Control, First Reports Evaluating the Effectiveness
    of Strategies for Preventing Violence: Firearms Laws. October 3,
    2003.
•   National Academies' National Research Council, Firearms and
    Violence: A Critical Review, Dec. 16, 2004.
    Research on the effectiveness of
            imprisonment
•   Marvell and Moody, 1999
•   Kaminski and Marvell, 2002
•   Kovandzic, et al, 2004
•   Cohen and Land, 1987
•   Levitt, 1996
  Research on the effectiveness of
         concealed carry
• Lott and Mustard (1997)
• Lott see http://www.johnlott.org/
• Carl Moody (2006)

				
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