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Avionics Roadmap March 19_ EIA_ Arlington Chris Wilkinson – Senior

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Avionics Roadmap March 19_ EIA_ Arlington Chris Wilkinson – Senior Powered By Docstoc
					                 ANNEX D
   Development of a Risk Informed Avionics
       Technology Insertion Roadmap
                          Chris Wilkinson
                      Senior Research Scientist
             CALCE Electronic Products & Systems Center
                       University of Maryland
             chrisw@wam.umd.edu, http://www.calce.umd.edu
    Project Objectives:
    • To develop a risk-informed avionics technology roadmap and to
      define the impacts of new technology insertion and old technology
      dependence on avionics
    • To develop recommendations for avionics design and support practice
March 19, 2001             CALCE Electronics and Products Center            1
                                 CALCE Center Programs
                                                    CALCE Electronic
                                                      Products and
                                                   Systems Consortium
                                                    • Risk assessment,
                                                      mitigation and
                       Electronics                    management of electronic
                       Components                     products and systems           Advanced Electrical
                        Alliance                                                       Power Systems
                 •   Semiconductor reliability                                       • Part interconnection
                 •   Package reliability                                             • High power packaging
                 •   Package design                                                  • Software development
                 •   CADMP-II VQ software
                                                    CALCE
                                                   Electronic Products
                                                   and Systems Center
                                                       ~$5M/Year                       Risk Mgmt in
                          MEMS                                                        Avionics Systems
                        Technology
                 • Combined RF MEMS and                                              • Manufacturing for Sustainment
                   Si/Ge HBTs (NASA JPL)                                               (USAF ManTech Program)
                 • SLIGA chip-to-chip bonding              Laboratory                • IEC and avionics working
                                                                                       group collaboration
                   reliability (NSWC)                       Services
                                                    •   Failure analysis
                                                    •   Product qualification
                                                    •   Materials characterization
                                                    •   Measurements




March 19, 2001                               CALCE Electronics and Products Center                                     2
                      CALCE Center Sponsors (2000)
3Com                  Eldec Corporation                MTI                            RD Instruments
ABB                   Emerson                          NASA Goddard Space Center      Rocketdyne
U.S. Air Force        Ericsson Radio Systems AB        NASA Jet Propulsion Lab        Sandia National Labs
ATOTECH               GD Information Systems           Naval Surface Warfare Center   Schlumberger
Avici Systems
                      General Motors                   Nan Ya Plastics                S. C. Johnson
B&G
                      Hewlett-Packard                  Neocera                        Seagate
Boeing
BAE Systems           Honeywell                        Nokia Radio Systems            LeCroy
Celestica             Indium Solder                    Nortel Networks                Smiths Industries
Ciena                 Intel                            Northrop Grumman               Sonix
CNES                  InterCon                         NSA                            Sun Microsystems
Rockwell Collins      International Rectifier          Office of Naval Research       Tatung
Corvis                Israeli MoD                      Orbital Sciences               Teradyne
CSP, Inc.             Johnson Matthey                  General Motors                 Textron Systems
Daewoo Electronics    Kings Electronic Components      Philips                        Thomson Consumer Electronics
DaimlerChrysler       Lab. of Physical Science         Photocircuits                  Triquint
Delphi Delco
                      Lockheed Martin                  Price Systems L.L.C.           TRW Lucas Aerospace
DERA (U.K.)
                      Lucent Technologies              QualMark                       United Technologies
EADS (Aerospatiale)
  Matra               MacDermid                        Raytheon Systems Company       UK MoD
Eaton Corporation     Matra BAe                                                       U.S. Army AMSAA
ECI                   MD Robotics                                                     U.S. Air Force WPAFB
                      Microsoft                                                       Visteon Automotive Systems
                      Motorola                                                        Wilcoxon Research




  March 19, 2001                         CALCE Electronics and Products Center                                   3
                 Key Problems Facing Avionics
•     Responding to the loss of the traditional supply
      chain
•     Managing Obsolescence
     –     In manufacturing, maintenance
           •     Continuous new technology insertion
•     Reducing sustainment costs of
     – Design & re-design
     – Maintenance & support
     – Certification & re-certification
•     Lower part temperature range capability
•     Supporting legacy systems
March 19, 2001                 CALCE Electronics and Products Center   4
                 Why an Avionics Roadmap?
• The continued decline in military grade parts is forcing
  avionics suppliers to switch to commercial part/sub-system
  technology.
• Brings problems of reduced temperature range, rapid
  obsolescence, high IO SMD packaging.
• Requires consequential changes to:
     –   Parts selection process
     –   Aircraft cooling provisions
     –   Certification process
     –   Hardware design process
• Roadmap is collecting data on the changes occurring in the
  component marketplace and recommending the changes to
  the above processes which are needed.

March 19, 2001                CALCE Electronics and Products Center   5
                         World Semiconductor Market
                                                            World Semiconductor Market ($m)

                                            $140,000
                                            $120,000                                                 Computer
                                            $100,000                                                 Communications
                                             $80,000                                                 Consumer
                                             $60,000                                                 Industrial
                                             $40,000                                                 Automotive
                                             $20,000                                                 Military
                                                  $0
                                                     93

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                      Military Part Market ($m)                                                Military % Share of Total Market

 $2,500
                                                                                     2.50%
 $2,000                                                                              2.00%

 $1,500                                                                              1.50%
                                                                                     1.00%
 $1,000
                                                                                     0.50%
  $500
                                                                                     0.00%
    $0

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                                                                                        20
          1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002



 Source INSTAT March 1999
March 19, 2001                                         CALCE Electronics and Products Center                                      6
          Decreasing Military Parts Availability

                                                                72
                                                                             72, 089
                                                                68
         Total U.S.


                                     Device count (Thousands)
                                                                64
military/aerospace                                              60
                                                                                       58, 294

       microcircuit                                             56                                50, 575
      availability of                                           52                                          45, 873
             parts*                                             48
                                                                44
                                                                40                                                    34, 000
                                                                36
                                                                32
                                                                28
                                                                24
                                                                20
                                                                16
                                                                          1992         1994        1995       1996     1998
                                                                                          Year
 *Includes QMLs, QPLs, & 883 devices
 Standardized parts include package variation, functionality, lead finish, quality variations and qualified manufacturers
 Source: Baca, M., "Obsolescence Management in the Twenty-first Century", DMSMS Conference, San Antonio, Texas 1997

March 19, 2001                                                   CALCE Electronics and Products Center                          7
   Manufacturers Exiting the Military Market
                    Manufacturer                    Market                    Date of exit
                 Micron                  military SRAM                 1992
                 Elantec                 monolithic military           1992
                 Texas Instruments       Class S                       4Q 1993
                 Seeq                    military E2 and PROM          3Q 1994
                 AMD                     military                      August 1994
                 Allegro (Sprague)       military                      August 1994
                 XICOR                   military NMOS                 1994
                 Motorola                military                      October 1994
                 Altera Corporation      military                      October 1995
                 Zilog                   military NMOS                 June 1995
                 Intel                   military                      1Q 1997
                 Philips                 military                      1Q 1997



March 19, 2001                        CALCE Electronics and Products Center                  8
   Manufacturers Exiting the Military Market

          Manufacturer                         Market                     Date of exit
  National Semiconductor      Sold logic division to Fairchild which   March 1997
                              discontinued mil-spec parts
  Elantec                     Military market                          July 1997
  Harris Semiconductor (now   Sold military logic division to TI       November 1998
  Intersil)
  Microsemi Corporation       Closed its Microsemi-BKC unit,           May 1999
                              which manufactured military and
                              space electronics
  Cypress Semiconductor       Sold military logic division to TI       December 1999
  Zing Technologies           Military division acquired by TI         January 2000
  Blue Road Research Inc.     Manufacturer of military fiber optics,   February 2000
                              sold to Standard MEMS Inc.




March 19, 2001                CALCE Electronics and Products Center                      9
                     Part Functionality
• The number of transistors/cm2 will continue to
  follow Moore’s Law for the foreseeable future
     – Equates to P throughput, memory density, ASIC gate count,
       etc…
• Projections for lithography suggest this will happen
• Gate delays will continue to fall, enabled by factors
  such as low-K dielectric and copper interconnects




March 19, 2001         CALCE Electronics and Products Center    10
                 Military Temperature Range
• All avionics design will be based on parts with a
  recommended operating range of 0-70oC or less
  within 5 years.
• Military part suppliers are exiting the market. Of
  the few that are left, we do not expect any significant
  players to continue military part production beyond
  the next 5 years.
• Industrial and automotive parts do not cover the
  variety needed by avionics



March 19, 2001         CALCE Electronics and Products Center   11
                        Part Supply Voltage
• Supply voltage will continue to reduce
• 5v will largely be gone in 2 years
• Lower voltage trend is driven by the need
     – for chips with smaller feature sizes
           • More dies per wafer = lower cost/die
           • Higher speed/density = increased functionality
     – to maintain field strengths at or about the current level and not
       increase failure rate due to mechanisms such as:
           • gate oxide breakdown
           • hot carriers
• Low-K dielectrics will alter this trade-off

March 19, 2001                CALCE Electronics and Products Center   12
            Design Trends in Memory Devices
       Design Metric                 1999        2000        2001         2002         2003     2004   2005

       Feature Size (µm)              0.18        0.18        0.18        0.13         0.13     0.13   0.10
       Functions per chip
                                      1.07          -         2.15          -          4.29      -     8.59
       (Gbits) - DRAMs
       Chip size (mm2) -
                                      400           -         438           -          480       -     526
       DRAMs

       Memory capacity -
                                     256M           -        512M           -              1G    -     4G
       DRAMs

       Transistor count
       (millions of                    24           -          49           -              78    -     142
       transistors/ cm2)

       Memory capacity -
                                      4M         16M          N/A         N/A          N/A      N/A    N/A
       SRAMs


    Adapted from: The SIA Roadmap, 1999 and Prince, B., High performance memories, 1999.


March 19, 2001                           CALCE Electronics and Products Center                                13
                          Low-k Dielectric Materials
 • Major advantages of low-k (k<3.0) dielectrics are:
          –   Lower device capacitance
          –   Lower signal propagation delay
          –   Lower noise
          –   Reduces power dissipation [1].
 • Some of the issues with low-k dielectrics are
          – development and integration of low-k materials
          – extensive material characterization
          – electrical performance in the materials, which are generally
            accepted to be necessary to continue shrinking devices while
            boosting their speed and performance [2].
Source:       [1] Semiconductor International, pp. 64, September 1998
              [2] Semiconductor Business News, http://www.semibiznews.com/story/OEG20000310S0050, March 10, 2000

 March 19, 2001                             CALCE Electronics and Products Center                                  14
                                 Copper Interconnects
• Higher conductivity relative to Al
     – Decrease in:
            • Signal rise time,
            • power consumption,
            • number of metal layers a device requires
• Cu surpasses Al in electromigration performance
     – Distributed over line length rather than bunched as in Al




  Source : Design News, pp. 3-80, June 7, 1999

March 19, 2001                              CALCE Electronics and Products Center   15
                              Part Packaging
• Through hole packages in all sizes will continue to
  decline in favor of SMD.
     – Through hole now < 7% and falling
• BGA/CSP/FC1 will be the dominant package for
  high I/O applications.
     – High I/O SM packages have severe assembly and solder joint
       reliability difficulties. Some commercial users have resorted
       to sockets
     – CSP pad density requires redistribution layers for routeability
• Ceramic will continue to decline in favor of plastic
  in all package styles.
1BGA –    Ball Grid Array, CSP- Chip Scale Package, FC – Flip Chip
March 19, 2001                 CALCE Electronics and Products Center   16
                 Chip-scale Packages
• The extreme downsizing of electronic products
  needed to make much of today’s portable computer
  and telecom gear possible, is driving chip-scale
  packages (CSPs), bare die and other advanced
  technologies
• Portable and wireless products are driving
  miniaturization, as is the need for performance. This
  increases the application of CSPs
• Today, most cellular phones have two chip-scale
  packages, an Intel flash and a Samsung DRAM in
  CSP
 Source : Electronic News, pp. 28, June 28, 1999



March 19, 2001      CALCE Electronics and Products Center   17
                            Flip Chip Packages
• Flip chip packaging technology is of two types:
     – Flip chip on board (FCOB): The flip chip device is mounted
       directly on a motherboard.
           • Applications include automotive electronics, disk drives, driver ICs for
             flat panel displays, watches, pagers, cellular phones, smart cards, PC
             card, and medical applications
     – Flip chip in a package (FCIP): The flip chip is mounted in a
       package, such as ceramic ball grid array (CBGA), ceramic
       column grid array (CCGA), ceramic land grid array (CLGA),
       plastic ball grid array (PBGA) or chip scale package (CSP).
           • Applications of single-chip package include camcorders,
             microprocessors, SRAMs, card PCs, digital video disks, and ASICs
             for PCs and LAN switches
           • Applications of multichip module include mainframe computers,
             servers, workstations, notebooks, subnotebooks, PDAs, and
             transmission switches
 Source: ISHM-Nordic 1997

March 19, 2001                CALCE Electronics and Products Center                18
                         Part Design Wearout Life
• Some evidence suggests that design wearout life may
  be decreasing
        – Wearout factors are becoming design goals for major
          semiconductor manufacturers
        – Motorola has informed Honeywell that the design wearout
          criteria for the PowerPC family is 5-7 years, 50% duty cycle1
        – Intel has stated in a JEDEC meeting that the Intel design
          wearout criteria is 7 years, 50% duty cycle, 1% failure rate at
          7 year point1
• Nullifies constant failure rate assumption of:
        – System safety assessment
        – Logistics
        – Life/Last time buys…
1John   Fink, Honeywell, Avionics Roadmap Conference, University of Maryland, August 2000

March 19, 2001                          CALCE Electronics and Products Center               19
                            Part Uprating
• Margin for uprateability could reduce in the long term
     – Cost penalties from wider than needed temperature range will be driven
       out
• Higher level assembly & parameter conformance uprating
  methods, may be an option for 3-5 years
     – Due to reducing margin between recommended operating temperature
       specification and actual part capability
• Parameter re-characterization uprating may be an option for
  5-7 years with decreasing potential
     – Reducing internal margins leading to loss of function
• Uprating will be a solution mainly for CMOS digital, and a
  limited amount of analog and mixed signal parts


March 19, 2001              CALCE Electronics and Products Center               20
                 The Avionics Design Process


                    The Changing Environment
                     The Hardware Life Cycle




March 19, 2001          CALCE Electronics and Products Center   21
                 The Operating Environment
• The civil avionics business is highly regulated
     – Military is largely unregulated
• Strict regulatory requirements govern
     – Hardware, software, systems development
     – Manufacturing and support operations
• There is now a new operating environment
     – Vanishing mil-specs & parts
     – Decreasing part temperature range
     – Decreasing part market life
• BUT - the regulations and the physical environment
  remain the same
March 19, 2001           CALCE Electronics and Products Center   22
                    Things must change
• The end of the project is when a certificate is issued
  or
     – when the military customer accepts the product
• ‘Do it once and forget it’
     – Avionics companies complete the development cycle and put
       equipment into service
     – Support of the design is minimal
     – Limited to fixing broken boxes
• Continuing product development
     – Short life parts mean product development will continue for
       the life of the product
     – Performance upgrades will „piggy-back‟ on these enforced
       changes
March 19, 2001          CALCE Electronics and Products Center        23
           Adopt Rapid Product Development
• Traditional COTS
     –   Standard modules
     –   Standardized interfaces
     –   Carries „excess baggage‟                 Standard
                                                  Modules
                                                                        Design Library
                                                                   (proprietary, 3rd party IP)
     –   Loss of control
                                                                                                 Optimal
• RECOMMENDATION                                                          Toolset &
                                                                        Configuration
     – Rapid Customization                                    Non
                                                                        Management

           • Library of IP                                   Optimal

           • Rapid Prototyping Toolset                                     Product
                                                      VME
           • Standardized interfaces                  Compact
                                                      PCI
• Same for software                                   STD
                                                      SEM




March 19, 2001                 CALCE Electronics and Products Center                                       24
                     Reuse Software Design
• Software is the driver
     – 80% of large microprocessor based system development cost
       is software
           • Of the 80% at least 50% is V&V
• RECOMMENDATION
     – Use in-company “open architecture”
     – Non-proprietary software interfaces are NOT a requirement
       but have some advantages
     – Use HW/SW Co-design tools
• Enables re-useable code


March 19, 2001              CALCE Electronics and Products Center   25
                    Reuse Hardware Design
• The PC model will never happen
     – Frequency of new major platforms is too long
     – The volume is too small
     – Only a few large companies have the integration skills
• RECOMMENDATION
     – Use in-company “open architecture”
     – Non-proprietary software interfaces are NOT a requirement
       but have some advantages
     – Enables evolutionary products
           • Planned technology insertion & obsolescence renewal




March 19, 2001               CALCE Electronics and Products Center   26
                 Parts Selection and Management
• PROPOSITION
     – All parts will be 0-70oC in 5 years
     – Commercial parts may be uprateable for no more than a few
       years
• Gives lower parts cost
• Needs better thermal management, cocooning,
  restricted operating procedures
• PSM brings additional up front costs
• RECOMMENDATION
     – Use a Parts Selection and Management Process
     – Think in terms of 0-70oC parts from now on

March 19, 2001           CALCE Electronics and Products Center     27
                            Manufacturing
• Small fine pitch parts are easily damaged during
  manual assembly
     – Latent and patent ESD
     – Poor control of soldering process
• Consider utilizing EMS
           • New business model, key competencies
• RECOMMENDATION
     – Improve yield, lower test/rework/errors/scrap costs thru:
           • Factory automation, lessons learned loop
           • Seamless integration of CAD/Materials/FMS/Tech Pubs Tools,
             Internet



March 19, 2001              CALCE Electronics and Products Center         28
                   Maintenance & Support
• End user 3rd level repair requires large investment by both
  end user and supplier
     – Increasingly impractical
• Improved, comprehensive warranties are being demanded
     – „Power-by-the-hour‟
     – Added importance of design for FFOP
• Rate of obsolescence is accelerating
• RECOMMENDATION
     – Support by function not by part
     – Eliminate level 3 maintenance, return to OEM
     – Eliminate level 3 end-user documentation, depot repair & test equipment
       fixturing, test software
     – Obsolescence renewal through FFF module exchange

March 19, 2001              CALCE Electronics and Products Center                29
                 Incremental Certification
• RECOMMENDATION
  Initial certification of                                ARINC 653 Model
  basic                                Partition 1   Partition 2   Partition 3   Partition 4
• PLUS minimal
                                                                                               APEX
  certification of additions
                                                       Operating System
  and changes                        (scheduler, exception handling, health monitor, logical
    – Demonstrable, robust                        communications, partioning)

      software partitioning                                                                    COEX

    – Decoupled hardware &
                                                   Hardware Interface System
      software                      (device driver, interrupt handler, memory management,

• Enables quick re-                                   control switching, BIT)

  certification after SRM
                                                           Hardware
  change or addition of           (processor, MMU, clock, interrupt contoller, communication
  new function                                          media, BITE)




March 19, 2001           CALCE Electronics and Products Center                                  30
                          Conclusion
• A structured, layered design enables products to be
  partitioned into independent pieces of IP
     – Re-usable across a range of products with minimal change
     – Refreshed independently to solve obsolescence or
       performance issues
     – Defined interfaces provide change containment boundaries
• The certification process has to modernize to
  recognize the continuous development cycle
     – Joint industry/FAA activity can make this happen
• Support will be at functional level and not at part
  level

March 19, 2001          CALCE Electronics and Products Center     31

				
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