peak_oil_adv_ans by liuqingyan

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									Harvard                                                                                                                                                          1
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                                                                 Oil

                                            Peak oil neg (and other neg stuff)
Peak oil neg (and other neg stuff) ................................. 1              Tech solves – general .................................................. 31
***FRONTLINES ........................................................ 2            Deep drilling/Arctic solves .......................................... 32
Peak Oil 1NC ................................................................ 3     Deep drilling solves ..................................................... 33
Peak Oil 1NC ................................................................ 4     Deep drilling = profitable ............................................ 34
Peak Oil 1NC ................................................................ 5     A2: inhospitable locations ........................................... 35
Peak Oil 1NC ................................................................ 6     ***NONCONVENTIONAL OIL ............................... 36
Peak Oil 1NC ................................................................ 7     Non-conventional oil solves ........................................ 37
***ECONOMICS ......................................................... 8            Non-conventional oil can compete .............................. 38
Economics – tech/need expands reserve ....................... 9                     Non-conventional can fill in w/o consumption cuts .... 39
Economics – markets are dynamic ............................. 10                    Oil sands solve ............................................................ 40
Economics – tech will match demand ........................ 11                      Oil sands are competitive ............................................ 41
Economics – new reserves will fill-in......................... 12                   ***REPLACEMENTS ................................................ 42
Market solves supply/demand discrepancies .............. 13                         Peak oil wrong – organic ag/biotech ........................... 43
Equilibrium – high prices decrease demand ............... 14                        Natural gas fill-in solves.............................................. 44
Slow transition solves – general ................................. 15               Lots of natural gas ....................................................... 45
Yes smooth transition ................................................. 16          Rising prices  renewables ........................................ 46
High prices  flooding  lower prices ..................... 17                      ***A2: THEIR ARGS................................................. 47
***WON‘T RUN OUT/NEW RESERVES ............... 18                                    A2: SQ high prices prove peak oil .............................. 48
Tons of oil................................................................... 19   A2: Oil company assessments ..................................... 49
Lots of oil – centuries ................................................. 20        A2: oil company behavior ........................................... 50
No peak for decades ................................................... 21          A2: abandoning their businesses ................................. 51
New reserves will be found ........................................ 22              A2: Industry consolidation .......................................... 52
Reserves will grow – history proves ........................... 23                  A2: Declining demand growth .................................... 53
A2: Discoveries have declined ................................... 24                Peak oil wrong – propaganda ...................................... 54
A2: New reserves are smaller ..................................... 25               Peak oil scholars not qualified ..................................... 55
A2: Saudi numbers are fake ........................................ 26              Campbell and Laherrere are dumb .............................. 56
Huge Saudi supplies will be found ............................. 27                  Hubbert‘s peak is empirically wrong .......................... 57
Tech solves – increased recovery rates ....................... 28                   A2: Bell curve has empirically worked ....................... 58
Computer tech solves – recovery percentage.............. 29                         IHS (Petroconsultants) say peak oil is wrong .............. 59
Tech solves – extraction techniques ........................... 30
Harvard                                            2
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11   Oil




                                ***FRONTLINES
Harvard                                                                                                              3
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                     Oil

                                                Peak Oil 1NC
No oil peak any time soon

Wall Street Journal Asia, November 21, 2007, p. 16

Two or three years ago, it was far more common for oil analysts and officials to trumpet the potential of new
technology to harvest more oil. In a report last year, Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a prominent
adviser to energy companies, made the comforting prediction that oil production could reach 110 million
barrels a day by 2015, and "more than meet any reasonable high growth rate demand scenario we can envisage" up
to that date. Because of progress being made in extracting oil through new methods, CERA said it found "no
evidence" there would be a peak in oil flows "any time soon." In a later report, CERA said world oil
production won't peak before 2030 and that even when it does, production will resemble an "undulating
plateau" for one or more decades before declining gradually.

Non-conventional oil sources being developed

Wall Street Journal Asia, November 21, 2007, p. 16
Soaring energy prices have breathed new life into projects targeting "nonconventional" oil, such as that trapped in
sand or shale. But these sources can't be tapped nearly as quickly or inexpensively as the big oil finds of the past.

New oil discoveries in the Caspian

Thai News Service, November 20, 2007

Section: Regional News - The Caspian region of Central Asia is home to some of the world's largest oil and gas
discoveries in recent decades. A top U.S. diplomat says western countries are eager to expand capacity and
production, and support plans to build a second pipeline in the region. But Russia and Iran, which border the
Caspian basin, are critical of the project. VOA's Victoria Cavaliere has more details on the discussion Friday
at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.
Harvard                                                                                                             4
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                    Oil



                                                Peak Oil 1NC
The world is not running out of oil

Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran is correspondent for The Economist and coauthor, with Iain Carson, of Zoom: The Global
Race to Fuel the Car of the Future (New York: Twelve Books, 2007). Foreign Policy, November 2007,
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/
"The World Is Running Out of Oil"

Hardly. The world has more proven reserves of oil today than it did three decades ago, according to official
estimates. Despite years of oil guzzling and countless doomsday predictions, the world is simply not running
out of oil. It is running into it. Oil is of course a nonrenewable resource and so, by definition, it will run dry some
day. But that day is not upon us, despite the fact that a growing chorus of "depletionists" argue that we've
already reached the global peak of oil production. Their view, however, imagines the global resource base in
oil as fixed, and technology as static. In fact, neither assumption is true. Innovative firms are investing in ever
better technologies for oil exploration and production, pushing back the oil peak further and further. The
key is understanding the role of scarcity, price signals, and future technological innovation in bringing the world's
vast remaining hydrocarbon reserves to market. Thanks to advances in technology, the average global oil
recovery rate from reservoirs has grown from about 20 percent for much of the 20th century to around 35
percent today. That is an admirable improvement. But it also means that two thirds of the oil known to exist in
any given reservoir is still left untapped. The best rebuttal to the depletionists' case lies in the world's
immense stores of "unconventional" hydrocarbons. These deposits of shale, tar sands, and heavy oil can be
converted to fuel that could power today's ordinary automobiles. Canada, for example, has deposits of tar sands
with greater energy content than all the oil in Saudi Arabia. China, the United States, Venezuela, and others also
have large deposits of these energy sources. The problem is that the conversion comes at a much greater
environmental and economic cost than conventional crude oil. But the very same high oil prices that doomsters
claim are a sign of imminent depletion also provide a powerful incentive for the development of these mucky
deposits-and for the technology that will allow us to extract them in a cleaner fashion.
Harvard                                                                                                                 5
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                        Oil



                                                 Peak Oil 1NC
New oil supplies coming online

Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran is correspondent for The Economist and coauthor, with Iain Carson, of Zoom: The Global
Race to Fuel the Car of the Future (New York: Twelve Books, 2007). Foreign Policy, November 2007,
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/

The key variable to watch is the spare oil production capacity maintained by the Organization of Petroleum
Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel. For much of the past three decades, OPEC has been capable of pumping far
more oil than it actually delivered to market, which helped it manage prices. In particular, Saudi Arabia used its
cushion to act as a swing producer, flooding the market with its buffer supply when normal global output was
disrupted, such as during the Iran-Iraq War and the first Gulf War. The price increases that have occurred with
regularity during the past several years are chiefly the result of the Saudis' allowing their buffer capacity to fall
during the 1990s and the global failure to anticipate the growth in Chinese oil imports. To address the
increased demand, the Saudis are spending tens of billions of dollars rebuilding their spare capacity, and an
unprecedented wave of new oil-the result of investments made a decade ago-is now coming online in Russia,
the Caspian, and West Africa.

The Middle East is awash in oil

Wall Street Journal Europe, December 12, 2007, p. 36
The Middle East remains awash in oil, with more than 60% of the world's proven reserves under the sands and
waters of the Persian Gulf area. Saudi Arabia says it has 264 billion barrels, which would be enough to supply the
entire world's needs, at today's rate of demand, for almost nine years.

200 more years of coal

Minqi Li, Department of Economics, University of Utah, November 2007, "Peak oil, the rise of China and India,
and the global energy crisis.(Report). ." Journal of Contemporary Asia. 449(23).

Among the fossil fuels, coal is relatively abundant. The world's total identified coal resource is said to be 35 trillion
tonnes (Cui, 2006: 16). Much of it, however, may never be recovered due to declining net energy returns (the net
energy output that can be produced for each unit of energy input) and environmental constraints (Heinberg, 2003:
129-32). The world's economically recoverable coal is estimated to be about 750 billion tonnes of coal equivalent.
At the current rate of production, it is sufficient to last more than 200 years (Boyle et al., 2003: 167). Trainer
(2006a) used a high estimate of the world's potentially recoverable coal, at two trillion tonnes of coal equivalent. At
the current rate of production, this would be sufficient to last more than 600 years.
Harvard                                                                                                                                        6
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                                               Oil

                                                           Peak Oil 1NC
Oil production won’t peak until 2050. New exploration and better technology ensure
supplies

Daniel Yergin, is the chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, New York Times, April 4, 2004
In 1972, an international research group called the Club of Rome predicted the world would soon run short of natural resources. Spiraling oil
prices in the following years - from $3 a barrel to $34 a barrel - seemed like a confirmation. Of course, that's not what happened. Supply steeply
increased from new non-OPEC sources like Alaska and the North Sea; coal and nuclear power plants pushed oil out of electricity generation, and
conservation reduced demand. By the mid-1980's, oil, supposedly headed for $100 a barrel, instead fell to as low as $6. Historically,
then, dire oil predictions have been undone by two factors. One is the opening (or reopening) of territories to
exploration by companies faced with a constant demand to replace declining reserves. The second is the tremendous
impact of new technology. After World War I, seismic technology, used for locating enemy artillery, was adapted to
oil field exploration. And in the 1990's, it became feasible to drill into deep offshore fields, which was inconceivable
during those crisis years of the 1970's. Better technology and management have increased Russian output by 45
percent since 1998, making Russia the world's second-largest oil producer. And if United States sanctions are lifted
on Libya, new investment there could push up production. In the meantime, advanced information technologies and
sophisticated remote sensing techniques are making exploration and production much more efficient, which could
make an additional 125 billion barrels available over the next decade, an amount greater than the current proved reserves of Iraq.
Those who don't believe a shortage is imminent do not deny that a peak will eventually be reached. They just believe that it is much farther off
into the future. "You can certainly make a good case that sometime before the year 2050 conventional oil production will have
peaked," said the head of exploration for a major oil company. He and others believe, however, that oil production
will simply plateau, and then farther into the future begin to decline. They also argue that the proponents of peak oil
consistently underestimate the reserves of regions in Russia, the Caspian Sea, the Middle East and the deepwater
Gulf of Mexico. Also, they say, the industry will continue to increase the percentage of oil that can be recovered
from a given field.


Oil is abiotic, solving all concerns of oil shortages
J. F. Kenney, Joint Institute of the Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences and the Gas Resources
Corporation, Energy World, June, 1996, http://www.csun.edu/~vcgeo005/Energy.html
The hypothesis that petroleum might somehow originate from biological detritus in sediments near the surface of the
Earth is utterly wrong. It deserves note that Lomonosov himself never meant for that hypothesis to be taken as more
than a reasonable suggestion, to be tested against further observation and laboratory experiment. The "biological
hypothesis" of petroleum origins has been rejected in this century by scientific petroleum geologists because it is
formidably in consistent with the existing geological records "on the ground." That hypothesis has been rejected also
by physicists, chemists, and engineers because it violates fundamental physical law. Lomonosov‘s eighteenth-
century hypothesis of a biogenic origin of petroleum has been replaced during the past forty years by the modern
theory of abyssal, abiotic petroleum origins, an extensive and formidable body of scientific kno wledge which has
been developed in the former U.S.S.R., particularly in the countries Russia and Ukraine. The modern Russian-
Ukrainian theory of petroleum has established that petroleum is a primordial material of deep origin which has been
erupted into the crust of the Earth. With the elimination of the error that petroleum might be some manifestation of
transformed, but limited, biological matter originating on the surface of the Earth, the consequential errors
connected with its supposed limits both of quantity and habitat vanish. Thus the errors of all the "doomsday"
predictions of petroleum shortages, which have never subsequently occurred, are explained, - or, more simply,
eliminated.
Harvard                                                                                                                  7
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                         Oil

                                                 Peak Oil 1NC
Reserves aren’t fixed – technology and need can expand recoverable oil
John Mitchell, Chairman of the Energy and Environment Programme and Associate Research Fellow at the Royal
Institute of International Affairs, et al., The New Economy of Oil: Impacts on Business, Geopolitics, and Society,
2001, p. 46-47
    Michael Lynch has pointed out the errors of the pessimists‘ past predictions. His own assertion in 1989 that
    oil prices would actually fall in the 1990s as non-OPEC supply grew — called ‗heretical‘ at the time — fits
    what actually happened.‘ As a result, pessimists have had to defer their estimates of the date of peak
    production. Furthermore, a 1997 study of supply functions in over 40 countries has shown that there is as
    much evidence of supply expansion as of contraction, with findings providing little or no support for the
    notion that the world is ‗running out of oil‘.‘ Lynch has argued that the Hubbert method fails because it takes
    recoverable reserves as fixed, whereas in fact the dynamics are rather more complex: of prime importance is
    the continuity of the mix of knowledge, technology and investment that sustains the process of exploration
    and production sufficiently to meet short- and medium-term demand expectations. Reserves depend on the
    interaction of this process, government policies and, finally, the price people are willing to pay for oil
    products. Since we cannot know future technology or prices, we cannot quantify future reserves. This should
    not be a concern, since it is these processes that are important. Ultimately, as Adelman has commented, ‗oil
    resources are unknown, unknowable and unimportant.‖

Economic motives can overcome oil shortages
Michael Lynch, President of Strategic Energy and Economic Research, Inc., and Research Affiliate at the Center
for International Studies at MIT, Minerals and Energy, July, 2004, http://www.gasresources.net/Lynch(Hubbert-
Deffeyes).htm
   The primary error for Hubbert modelers is the assumption of geology as the sole motivator of discovery,
   depletion and production. In the work of Campbell, Deffeyes, and Laherrere, they go further, equating
   causality with correlation. This is one of the most basic errors in (physical or social) scientific analysis. ―Oil
   is ultimately controlled by events in the Jurassic which are immune to politics‖ (Campbell 2000) and
   ―…discovery and depletion are set respectively by what Nature has to offer and the immutable physics of the
   reservoirs.‖ (Campbell 2002) The idea that production is influenced by oil prices (which determine the
   amount of capital available for drilling) and by policy choices in producing governments, which decide when
   exploration will be allowed, and/or set production ceilings, is considered foolish. And yet, they do
   acknowledge restrictions on operations, particularly in the Middle East. The argument that the drop in global
   discoveries proves scarcity of the resource is the best example of the importance of understanding causality.
   While it is true that global oil discoveries dropped in the 1970s from the previous rate, this was largely due to
   a drop in exploration in the Middle East. Governments nationalized foreign operations and cut back drilling
   as demand for their oil fell by half, leaving them with an enormous surplus of unexploited reserves. It is
   noteworthy that none of those pessimistic about oil resources show discovery over time by region, which
   would support this. And two recent discoveries, Kashagan in Kazakhstan and Azedagan in Iran, reportedly
   would together equal over ten percent of Campbell and Laherrere‘s estimated remaining undiscovered oil.
   Statistically speaking, this is unlikely. Laherrere‘s argument that the Middle East is near the end of its
   undiscovered oil is entirely based on the assumption that the observed fall-off in discoveries was due to a
   lack of geological opportunities, rather than government decision-making. (Laherrere 2001b) To an
   economist, the drop in exploration reflects optimal behavior: they do not waste money exploring for
   something they will not use for decades.
Harvard                                            8
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11   Oil




                                ***ECONOMICS
Harvard                                                                                                             9
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                    Oil

                        Economics – tech/need expands reserve
Oil reserves are not static. Better technology and techniques allows recovery of much more
oil
Suzan Mazur, April 22, 2004, http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/042204_mazur_morgan_oil.html,
accessed 8/6/04
   Campbell was followed the next day by Michael Lynch, a computer oil and gas modeler for the past 25 years,
   President/Director of Global Petroleum Strategic Energy and Economic Research. Lynch came out slugging,
   informing conference callers that Campbell has refused to appear with him since 1997, saying "you'll
   understand why very shortly.‖ He seems to view Campbell as old school and too tired to be optimistic about
   the future. Perhaps a bit like Cheney and Rumsfeld having their last hurrahs before retiring into the bed &
   breakfast business on the Eastern Shore of Maryland. Lynch believes the Hubbert model that Campbell 's
   theory relies on – discoveries and production follow a bell curve – is not only "incorrectly modeled", but is
   "much closer to being junk science.‖ He says further, that while Campbell and his colleague, Jean Laherrère,
   have now "stopped saying that" . . . they've "never admitted they were wrong.‖ Lynch takes the position that
   URR – Ultimately Recoverable Resources – is not a static amount and therefore cannot follow such creaming
   curves. "It grows over time," he says, "as a result of economic changes, development in an area, but also
   because of technology, and in some cases, better scientific knowledge."
Harvard                                                                                                                10
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                        Oil

                             Economics – markets are dynamic
Oil markets are dynamic – prices will gradually rise at a rate that allows alternatives to fill-
in
Oystein Noreng, professor of petroleum economics and management at the Norwegian School of Management,
Crude Power: Politics and the Oil Market, 2002, p. 153-154
   In a fully competitive market, the average return on investment in oil would in the longer run adjust to
   returns in the capital market, corrected for risk, so that investors would be indifferent to the balance of their
   assets in oil or financial instruments. Still, investor preferences would differ. Some would have a greater
   propensity than others to deplete oil reserves quickly. In this setting, marginal costs would gradually rise,
   accompanied by oil prices. If the industry were fully competitive, the cost and ensuing price increase would
   be fairly linear, stabilizing at the cost level of substitutes, corrected for the impact of technological
   development. In this process, investors with assets producing at less than marginal cost would reap windfall
   profits, an economic rent as return on investment above normal, again corrected for risk. Moreover, inventive
   and efficient producers would also reap windfall profits by lowering costs before others. Conversely,
   investors with assets producing at marginal cost would be punished when oil prices declined as a result of
   technical progress. The major practical consequence of this theory is that oil supplies would be price elastic,
   corrected for lead times, provided that markets were competitive. With rising prices, more oil would be
   available in the market, again corrected for lead times. Conversely, stagnant prices would gradually lead to
   declining oil supplies caused by depletion of reserves, unless corrected for by the impact of technical
   progress. From this perspective, oil supplies should represent no problem provided markets are competitive.
   Ultimately, oil prices will reach a level that encourages investment in substitutes. The historical experience of
   the various oil provinces corroborates this point of view.
Harvard                                                                                                               11
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                       Oil

                            Economics – tech will match demand
The tech to manufacture energy will always keep up with demand
Jerry Taylor, Director of Natural Resource Studies at Cato, National Review, March 25, 2002,
http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1282/is_5_54/ai_83591406
    Washington has always been convinced that energy is somehow different from other commodities, different
    enough that it can't be left to the market. Nothing, however, could be further from the truth. At the forefront
    of this debate, once again, is conservation. Yet there's no more need to conserve energy than there is to
    conserve Post-it notes. Despite the occasional spike, energy prices have been declining for a century,
    showing that energy is becoming more abundant -- not more scarce -- with time. It's often thought of as a
    fixed and finite resource, but energy is in fact a manufactured product. And as our technology advances, our
    ability to efficiently manufacture energy advances along with it.
Harvard                                                                                                                   12
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                           Oil

                             Economics – new reserves will fill-in
Huge new reserves will be made cost-effective by the long-term upward slope of prices –
small price increases may be inevitable but a supply crunch is unlikely
Suzan Mazur, April 22, 2004, http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/042204_mazur_morgan_oil.html,
accessed 8/6/04
   Lynch responded by saying give Capex time, you haven't seen the results yet, and that "it's partly delay
   because what you're seeing is companies putting money into big projects like deep water West Africa that
   take longer to come online than a shallow Gulf of Mexico field." He said the Chad pipeline took 2-3 years,
   and mentioned costs on such projects could go up as much as 30%-40%. John Hoey of Tethys Oil agrees. "It
   would be folly," he says, "to solely rely on the old school theories of recoverable reserves, tertiary recovery
   methods and technologies, old maps and geological interpretations." Hoey says the technology is moving too
   fast; they are now drilling faster, smarter, deeper and more effectively, revisiting areas that were abandoned,
   looking for different plays -- all helped by the economics of $30/bbl oil. He argues, "The worldwide
   deepwater drilling market expenditures have been estimated at $40 billion between 2003 and 2007 versus a
   fraction of this amount 10 years earlier, and were virtually nonexistent 10 years prior to that."

Oil shortages are a myth – virtually infinite supplies exist
Jerry Taylor, director of natural resource studies at the Cato Institute, National Review, September 7, 2000
   First, the belief that the oil fields are running dry is nonsense. Proven reserves (that is, oil that can tapped and
   marketed today at a profit) are 15 times larger today than they were in 1948. Moreover, given present
   consumption levels, the Energy Information Administration reports that oil fields could last another 230
   years before running dry and that unconventional petroleum sources (tar sands, shale, and the like) could
   meet present demands for an additional 580 years.
Harvard                                                                                                               13
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                       Oil

                     Market solves supply/demand discrepancies
The market corrects for supply and demand discrepancies. Government intervention isn’t
needed
Jerry Taylor, Director of Natural Resource Studies at Cato, National Review, March 25, 2002,
http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1282/is_5_54/ai_83591406
    Moreover, market signals provide all the incentive necessary to encourage both conservation and the
    exploration and development of new energy sources. Economists who study energy markets have discovered
    that in the long run, demand for energy will reflect its availability -- that is, if energy resources become 20
    percent more expensive, demand will decline by 20 percent. Why additional conservation efforts are
    necessary beyond this is a mystery. Of course, the flip side of the coin is that when energy prices drop 20
    percent, demand will in the long run increase by 20 percent. This drives green types crazy, but obsessing
    about conservation when prices fall, as they have over time, is no more rational than the crazed general's
    obsessing in Dr. Strangelove about the conservation of "precious bodily fluids."
Harvard                                                                                                                 14
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                         Oil

                      Equilibrium – high prices decrease demand
Price increases push back the peak – more resources become recoverable as the cost goes
up
David Goodstein, Vice Provost and Professor of Physics and Applied Physics at Caltech, Out of Gas, 2004, p. 29
   Another point of disagreement concerns the total amount of oil that nature has produced on Earth. Over the
   period 1995—2000, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) made an exhaustive study of worldwide oil
   supplies. The resulting report concludes that, with 95 percent certainty, there was the equivalent of at least
   two trillion barrels when we started pumping. However, it also concludes with 50 percent probability that
   there were at least 2.7 trillion barrels—based on the expectation that, contrary to trends mentioned earlier,
   new discovery will continue at a brisk rate for at least thirty more years. The additional 0.7 trillion barrels to
   be unearthed would amount to discovering all over again all the oil that‘s now known to exist in the Middle
   East. The fact is, the amount of known reserves is a very soft number. For one thing, it is usually a
   compilation of government or commercial figures from countries around the world, and those reported
   figures are at least sometimes slanted by political or economic considerations. Also, what we mean by
   ―conventional‖ or ―cheap‖ oil changes with time. As technology advances, the amount of reserves that can be
   economically tapped in known fields increases. The way the oil industry uses the term, the increase in
   recoverable oil counts as ―discovery,‖ and it accounts for much of the new discovery the USGS expects in
   the next thirty years. Finally, as oil starts to become scarce and the price per barrel goes up, the amount
   recoverable at that price will necessarily also increase. These are all tendencies that might help to push
   Hubbert‘s peak farther into the future than the most pessimistic predictions.

High oil prices drive down demand, lessening the pressure on markets
Paul Roberts, Harper's Magazine, Finalist for the National Magazine Award, The End of Oil: A Perilous New
World, 2004, p. 160
   At best, according to U.S. analysts, China will never produce more than 3.2 million barrels a day, which
   means that by 2020 the country will be importing up to eight million barrels a day. The implications aren‘t
   pretty. Beyond draining China‘s hard-currency reserves — money Beijing would much rather spend buying
   ―clean‖ Western energy technology — rising imports will make China increasingly vulnerable to the
   vicissitudes of the oil market and oil politics generally and will have a corresponding effect on world
   markets. Just as American imports are hugely important to oil markets today, so, too, will China‘s rising oil
   demand be: in the not-so-distant future, any shift in Chinese domestic economic policies or cooling off of
   China‘s red-hot economic growth could send oil prices reeling. Chinese demand is already pushing Beijing
   into a headlong rush to find oil and gas suppliers and setting up a showdown with other regional consumers,
   like Japan and South Korea, over access to Middle Eastern oil. How inevitable are such scenarios? Clearly,
   the rise in energy consumption in China and elsewhere throughout the developed and developing world
   depends on a host of factors. If world economic growth slows to just 2 percent a year, instead of the current
   2.6 percent, daily world oil consumption would reach just 101 million barrels by 2020, instead of 120 million
   barrels — and that difference would dramatically lessen the pressure on world oil markets. Likewise, a
   gradual rise in the world price of oil would also keep demand down. According to one estimate, if the price
   of oil were to climb from its historic average of twenty dollars a barrel to thirty dollars a barrel and remain
   there, in real terms, for the next two decades, demand would be pushed down to around 106 million barrels
   by 2020.
Harvard                                                                                                           15
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                   Oil

                               Slow transition solves – general
Replacements and new techniques will enable a slow long-term transition away from fossil
fuels
Paul Roberts, Harper's Magazine, Finalist for the National Magazine Award, The End of Oil: A Perilous New
World, 2004, p. 46
   Not only are the known reserves of oil enormous, we‘re told, but oil scientists, engineers, and other clever
   types are getting better at finding new oil in unexpected places — in the North Sea (in the 1960s), for
   instance, or off the shore of Angola (in the 1990s). Factor in the indescribably vast reserves of so-called
   unconventional oil — whether in the form of the molasseslike ―heavy oil‖ in Venezuela, for instance, or the
   oil-bearing tar sands in Alberta — plus all the known re serves of natural gas (which can be processed into
   synthetic gasoline and diesel) — and, say optimists, the world won‘t reach a peak in production for fifty or
   sixty or a hundred years. Such a buffer, optimists say, leaves us plenty of time to develop new energy
   technologies and ensure an orderly transition to a post-hydrocarbon order without having to take rash or
   costly emergency measures, or even to upset ourselves thinking about it.
Harvard                                                                                                                 16
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                         Oil

                                          Yes smooth transition
The transition from oil will be smooth
Ali al-Naimi, Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, May 7, 2004,
http://www.saudi-us-relations.org/newsletter2004/saudi-relations-interest-05-07.html
    Second, the future for oil and the oil industry is a bright one. This is not the end of the age of oil as some
    pessimists have been saying. There is plenty of oil left to be found and produced and petroleum will remain
    the dominant energy source for years to come. I assure you that Saudi Arabia's reserves are real and that we
    have the potential to produce at much higher rates in line with the growing demand for many years. Yes, the
    age of oil will eventually come to an end but we see no shortages on the horizon and there is no reason for
    pessimism or panic. Pessimism and panic undermine oil market stability. There is time for progressive
    research and development and I see no reason that we should not experience a smooth transition to the next
    great energy source.

The transition to alternatives will be smooth
Ali al-Naimi, Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, May 7, 2004,
http://www.saudi-us-relations.org/newsletter2004/saudi-relations-interest-05-07.html
    We are able to state confidently that sufficient quantities remain to make oil an important source of energy
    for many years to come. We believe there are sufficient reserves in Saudi Arabia and the rest of the world to
    last until there is an inevitable transition from the age of oil to the next great source of energy. I remind the
    audience that the shift from coal to oil which occurred in late 19th and 20th and early 20th century did not
    occur because the world ran out of coal. It occurred because oil proved to be the superior energy source.
    Eventually technological advances will usher in a new energy resource to replace oil. Oil will not cede its
    position as the preeminent fuel because the world runs dry but because technology has rendered it less
    desirable. We in Saudi Arabia believe there are sufficient quantities of oil left to make the transition to the
    next great energy source a smooth one.
Harvard                                                                                                                   17
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                           Oil

                           High prices  flooding  lower prices
High prices cause market flooding, correcting prices
Jerry Taylor, director of natural resource studies at the Cato Institute, National Review, September 7, 2000
   First, the belief that the oil fields are running dry is nonsense. Proven reserves (that is, oil that can tapped and
   marketed today at a profit) are 15 times larger today than they were in 1948. Moreover, given present
   consumption levels, the Energy Information Administration reports that oil fields could last another 230
   years before running dry and that unconventional petroleum sources (tar sands, shale, and the like) could
   meet present demands for an additional 580 years. The key, however, is price. When prices are low, a lot of
   that oil will remain in the ground. With prices at today's level, that oil becomes highly profitable to bring to
   market. It takes time, but once the industry is convinced that high prices aren't some sort of mirage, that oil
   will flood the market.
Harvard                                           18
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11   Oil




        ***WON’T RUN OUT/NEW RESERVES
Harvard                                                                                                                19
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                        Oil

                                                  Tons of oil
Oystein Noreng, professor of petroleum economics and management at the Norwegian School of Management,
Crude Power: Politics and the Oil Market, 2002, p. 106-107
   Declining oil replacement costs imply that the world is still far from the end in the exploitation of oil
   resources. Apparently, world oil reserves are far from being depleted, so that prospects are for oil supplies
   outside OPEC to remain price elastic. This is corroborated by technological development, enhanced
   geological knowledge, more flexible patterns of oil industry organization, and finally, by recent discovery
   rates for oil. For this trend to continue, the major prospective areas of the world need to open for exploration
   and development by a multitude of oil companies. This would decentralize supplies and diffuse the price risk,
   reducing the importance of the Middle East in the oil market. Since the doomsday predictions of the Club of
   Rome in the early 1970s, more oil has been extracted and consumed than at that time was thought ultimately
   available, even at high prices. Present proven oil reserves are greater than at any time in the past, in absolute
   figures as in relation to annual consumption. Non-OPEC oil discoveries, reserves and supplies have been
   consistently underestimated. OPEC reserves and supply potential are essentially unknown because of limited
   exploration since the early 1970s and the potential for technological progress. This logic applies even more
   strongly to other developing countries. Because commercial oil companies do not need to control oil reserves
   in quantities representing decades of forward output, they are reluctant to invest more than necessary in
   exploration. Therefore, it may be futile to consider energy resources as finite, at least on a worldwide basis.

Oil won’t run out – lots of reasons
Oystein Noreng, professor of petroleum economics and management at the Norwegian School of Management,
Crude Power: Politics and the Oil Market, 2002, p. 14
   For oil consumers, the good news is that the world is not about to run out of oil. More oil is being found and
   supply costs are declining. Progress in technology and organization more than mitigate resource depletion.
   Middle East oil replacement costs have declined markedly. Since the early 1970s, offshore oil development
   costs in the North Sea and the US Gulf of Mexico have been declining at a rate of about 3 per cent a year,
   measured in real terms on comparable projects. The bad news is that alternatives to oil have not developed as
   expected. The bright future promised for nuclear power and coal never materialized. Only natural gas, oil‘s
   sister fuel, is quickly gaining ground and the world remains as dependent as ever on oil from the Middle East.
Harvard                                                                                                                                          20
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                                                  Oil

                                                 Lots of oil – centuries
No shortage for 10,000 years
Alex Taylor, Fortune, November 22, 1999
   Most experts do not believe Campbell's prediction of apocalypse any day now. "This analysis is a piece of
   foolishness," says M.A. Adelman, emeritus professor of economics at MIT. "The world will never run out of
   oil, not in 10,000 years." Adelman and others believe Campbell has ignored oil reserves that companies have
   not yet found because they haven't invested the capital to identify them. The Beverly Hillbillies
   notwithstanding, oil doesn't just bubble out of the ground. It is expensive to locate and develop, so people
   don't look for it until they need it. "In order to have reserves, you have to invest in them," says James L.
   Smith, who teaches oil and gas management at the Edwin L. Cox business school at Southern Methodist
   University. Nor is oil the only resource in the ground that produces energy. There are also tar sands, oil shale,
   and heavy oil--collectively known as "unconventional oil." Campbell tends to dismiss oil substitutes because
   they would be expensive to develop and would damage the environment. Still, the U.S. Department of
   Energy estimates that tar sands in Canada and extra-heavy oil in Venezuela contain the equivalent of about
   one trillion barrels of oil--slightly more than all the oil that has ever been burned. It also figures that global oil shale
   deposits--one-third of them in the U.S.--could hold another 15 trillion barrels. In all, the government estimates that by about 2020, two
   trillion barrels of unconventional oil could be produced from various sources at a cost of $ 30 per barrel. Most predictions for an oil-
   plentiful future depend on developing new technologies for finding and extracting oil. Campbell describes this technology as "largely
   mythical" and argues that it will be of little use because of the way oil occurs geologically. Unlike coal, which lies in seams that blend
   into the earth, oil is deposited in pools of finite capacity. New techniques allow drillers to empty existing pools more quickly, says
   Campbell, but don't help find additional reserves--of which there aren't many, he adds. "There is only so much crude oil in the world," he
   writes, "and the industry has found about 90% of it." But drillers are discovering oil today in places they couldn't even
   get to five or ten years ago. Says Andrew Hardiman, an expert in deep-water exploration for Chevron: "Technology is
   coming faster and cheaper than anyone imagined." In 1965, drillers could operate in water up to 300 feet deep. Today,
   Chevron is leasing blocks of land in the Gulf of Mexico 9,000 feet underwater, and Hardiman says drilling in 10,000 feet isn't far off.
   Deep-water drilling is expensive; Chevron rents drill ships that cost up to $ 350,000 a day. But the company has become much more
   efficient at operating them. Chevron and others are developing a technique called subsea mud-lift drilling, which enables drillers to leave
   residue on the ocean floor instead of creating an unwieldy hydrostatic column to suck it up through a pipe. This could save drillers $ 5
   million to $ 10 million per well. New tools like three-dimensional seismic analysis enable oil companies to bounce sound waves off oil-
   bearing deposits and translate the patterns into 3-D models. Drilling rigs using the technique find productive wells more than 70% of the
   time, vs. 40% with conventional seismic analysis. Robert Esser, director of global oil and gas resources for Cambridge Energy Research
   Associates, says, "More oil was found in 1999 than in any other year in this decade. There is plenty more oil in the Middle
   East and Brazil, and in the Caspian Sea region." In addition, producers are getting smarter at extracting oil
   from existing reserves. Major U.S. producers can now pump as much as 50% of the oil from a given pool, vs. a worldwide average
   of less than 35%. Esser sees worldwide production rising from 77 million barrels a day this year to 97 million barrels a day in 2010,
   without a peak in sight. The fact is that estimates of the amount of oil in the earth have been increasing for almost 80
   years (see chart). As the Energy Information Agency of the Department of Energy concluded in a recent report: "When undiscovered
   oil, efficiency improvements, and the exploitation of unconventional crude oil resources are taken into account, it is difficult not to be
   optimistic about the long-term prospects for oil as a viable energy source well into the future." Adds Marianne Kah, Conoco's chief
   economist: "The question is, Will technology continue to offset resource depletion as it has for the last 100 years? I
   believe it will. Why should the next ten years be different?"

Oil won’t run out for centuries
Doug Bandow, CATO Policy Analysis, No. 428, March 20, 2002, www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa428.pdf
   Further, some 300 billion barrels of unrecovered oil, 10 times our proven reserves and more than known
   Saudi resources, lie in beds of shale under the United States. 76 They are not counted, however, because they
   are not currently worth developing. But as prices rise and new techniques are developed, they may become
   economically recoverable. Moreover, energy companies are looking for new oil deposits around the world,
   including in the Caspian Basin, Russia, and West Africa. Estimates of as yet undiscovered potentially
   recoverable oil range from 1 trillion to 6 trillion barrels. The Energy Information Administration estimates
   that, at current consumption rates, we have enough oil for another 230 years and that ―unconventional‖
   sources, such as shale, could last 580 years. 77And even those figures are based on existing prices and
   technologies. Higher prices would stimulate exploration, as well as production of alternative fuels and
   conservation, reducing oil consumption.
Harvard                                                                                                               21
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                       Oil

                                         No peak for decades
The peak won’t be reached for decades
CSM, January 29, 2004
   For example, with scientific advances, oil companies have boosted their drilling success, which means they
   don't need to drill as many wells. Last year, nearly 40 percent of exploration and wildcat projects located oil,
   gas, or gas condensate, according to IHS Energy. Besides conventional oil, there are huge amounts in
   Canadian oil sands, Venezuelan heavy oils, and Rocky Mountain shale. If oil prices skyrocket, oil in deep
   offshore fields and in polar regions would become economically feasible to extract. And there's oil from
   natural gas, which experts see as lasting longer than conventional oil, outside North America. The USGS
   added the oil sands to the world's reserves recently, making Canada the second-largest holder of reserves
   after Saudi Arabia. These sands are already being exploited. But they require the injection of hydrogen to
   make their tar oil light enough to flow in a pipe. Meanwhile, estimates of oil reserves keep growing. For
   example, world oil reserves now are five times as great as at the end of World War II, says Thomas
   Ahlbrandt, chief of the USGS World Energy Project. And they grew 15 percent in the past five years -
   without adding in the Canadian oil sands - mostly by upgrading the proven reserves in existing fields. The
   world has used up about 930 billion barrels of oil since the 1800s, and has left some 3 trillion in the ground.
   That estimate includes about 732 billion barrels of not-yet-discovered oil and an assumed growth in reserves
   in already discovered fields, the USGS reckons.
Harvard                                                                                                             22
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                     Oil

                                   New reserves will be found
New reserves will continue to replenish supplies
Richard Heinberg, core faculty member at New College of California, The Party‘s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of
Industrial Societies, 2003, p. 106
   These predictions were obviously wrong. More recently, however, we have had an ever-rising prediction of
   the number of years‘ worth of oil remaining (years of consumption), despite increasing consumption. This is
   astounding. Common sense dictates that if we had 35 years‘ consumption left in 1955, we should have had
   34 years‘ supply left the year after — if not less, because we consumed more oil in 1956 than in 1955. But ...
   in 1956 there were more years of reserves available So how can we have used ever more, and still have ever
   more left? The answers provide three central arguments against the limited resources approach. The first of
   Lomborg‘s ―central arguments‖ is that ―known reserves‖ are not finite but constantly growing: It is not that
   we know all the places with oil, and now just need to pump it up. We explore new areas and find new oil. It
   is rather odd that anyone could have thought that known resources pretty much represented what was left,
   and therefore predicted dire problems when these had run out. It is like glancing into my refrigerator and
   saying: ―Oh, you‘ve only got food for three days. In four days you will die of starvation.‖ But in two days I
   will go to the supermarket and buy more food. The point is that oil will come not only from the sources we
   already know, but also from many sources of which we do not yet know.

Oil reserves will continue to expand
Science News, October 31, 1998
   Some energy analysts, however, dispute such worrisome forecasts. Thomas S. Ahlbrandt of the U.S.
   Geological Survey in Denver, who leads an ongoing federal effort to estimate global reserves, finds hope in
   new technologies that allow companies to pursue oil in the deep sea and other areas previously unexamined.
   "Since 1990, the area available for exploration has doubled in the world." Advances are also helping
   companies after they locate oil. Three-dimensional seismic imaging has improved the mapping of fields, and
   whereas engineers once bored only vertically through Earth's crust, they now can steer their drilling, even
   horizontally. In its 1998 International Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration
   concluded that "technologies continue to evolve that significantly enhance both exploration and production
   capabilities." It does not forecast production to peak during the time frame of its analysis, which runs to
   2020. Economist Morris Adelman of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology challenges the practice of
   estimating oil reserves. "Nobody knows how much hydrocarbon exists or what percentage of that will be
   recoverable," he says. Judging from the histories of other geologic commodities, Adelman sees reasons to
   expect an increasing petroleum supply. "The tendency to deplete [a resource] is counteracted by increases in
   knowledge," he says.
Harvard                                                                                                               23
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                       Oil

                             Reserves will grow – history proves
Reserves continue to grow despite expanding consumption
Ali al-Naimi, Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, May 7, 2004,
http://www.saudi-us-relations.org/newsletter2004/saudi-relations-interest-05-07.html
    Now let me elaborate a little further on these points. With regard to recent claims that the world is rapidly
    running out of oil, I would like to point out that this is not the first time we have heard warnings of
    impending scarcity. In fact dire Malthusian predictions about oil and other natural resources have been
    voiced now and again for at least the last 100 years. The most commonly held argument is that mankind
    faces the imminent exhaustion of the world's natural resources, including petroleum, due to growing
    population and the profligate lifestyles of wealthy nations. How did past predictions of doom and gloom
    fare? Not very well. During this period when we were supposed to be running out of oil, world oil reserves
    continued to grow from about 550 billion barrels in 1970 to more than 1.2 trillion barrels today. What is all
    the more remarkable is that this increase occurred despite the fact that the world consumed over 800 billion
    barrels during this period.

History proves new reserves will be found to keep oil cost-competitive
John Quiggen, May 7, 2004, http://www.johnquiggin.com/archives/001680.html, accessed 8/4/04
   Critics of predictions of resource exhaustion have plenty of history on their side. In the 19th century, the
   eminent economist W.S. Jevons predicted the imminent exhaustion of reserves of coal. He was wrong, as
   were a series of subsequent prophets of resource exhaustion, most notably Paul Ehrlich and the Club of
   Rome in the 1970s. Time after time, scarcity has been met by new discoveries and by improvements in
   resource technologies that have made it economic to extract resources from sources that were once
   considered valueless. In the case of oil, the estimate of ‗proven‘ reserves in 1973 was 577 billion barrels. The
   Club of Rome pointed out that given projections of growing use, reserves would be exhausted by the 1990s.
   The economic slowdown from the 1970s onwards meant that the actual rate of growth was slower.
   Nevertheless, between 1973 and 1996, total usage was around 500 billion barrels. Yet at the end of the
   period, estimated reserves had actually grown to over 1000 billion barrels. This is a pattern that has been
   repeated for many other commodities, and should give pause to any advocate of the exhaustion hypothesis.
   (Nearly all the additional reserves came from upward revisions of estimates of reserves in existing fields,
   seen by optimists as reflecting technological gains)
Harvard                                                                                                                 24
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                         Oil

                                 A2: Discoveries have declined
Countries have intentionally refused to explore
Leonardo Maugeri, senior fellow at the World Economic Laboratory at MIT, senior fellow at the Foreign Policy
Association, Oil and Gas Journal, December 15, 2003
   Today, the world's structural spare oil capacity is more than 4 million b/d, which is maintained by OPEC
   countries -- and particularly Saudi Arabia -- in order not to flood the market. But it's very important to bear in
   mind that the overall oil supply capacity has been limited thus far by peculiar circumstances. Above all,
   major producing countries have substantially minimized their oil investments in the last 20 years in an
   attempt to avoid creating permanent excess capacity like that of the 1948-72 period. Nonetheless, their
   expansion potential is huge. For example, the 10-year plan of Saudi Aramco in 1973 (before the oil crisis)
   targeted 20 million b/d of production in 1983, more than double Saudi Arabia's current output. It's also true,
   according to Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi, that Saudi Arabia is still producing oil from only 9-10 of the
   country's 80-plus oil fields, and 8 of these were discovered more than 40-50 years ago.

Discoveries have only declined because it hasn’t been economical to look
Tim Appenzeller, National Geographic, June 1, 2004
   On the optimistic side, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) concluded in a 2000 study that there's at
   least 50 percent more oil left than the pessimists believe, much of it in the Middle East. New technologies
   will wring additional supplies from existing fields, the USGS predicts, and vast new reserves remain to be
   found. Many economists agree, saying discoveries have fallen off simply because countries awash in oil like
   Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia have had no incentive to drill for more. "If I'm an OPEC producer, with lots of
   spare capacity, why would I waste money looking for more reserves?" asks Kaufmann.
Harvard                                                                                                                  25
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                          Oil

                                   A2: New reserves are smaller
Improved recovery methods explain the smaller size of newer reserves
Richard Heinberg, core faculty member at New College of California, The Party‘s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of
Industrial Societies, 2003, p. 112-113
   Michael C. Lynch, Chief Energy Economist of Difi-WEFA, Inc., has written extensively on petroleum
   depletion and is probably the foremost oil cornucopian in the current public debate. In his many writings he
   has emphasized essentially the same points as Lomborg, which we need not address again. However, in his
   recent essay ―Closed Coffin: Ending the Debate on ‗The End of Cheap Oil‖ (2001), Lynch offers a
   confrontational, if somewhat technical, challenge leveled specifically at Campbell and Laherrère. In it, he
   leaves aside other arguments and focuses almost entirely on reserve growth. I apologize to readers who are
   uninterested in this level of detail, but since the question of whether oil production is about to peak is central
   to this book, it is absolutely necessary that we examine the contentions of this foremost critic of production-
   peak estimates. Lynch writes: The primary flaw in [Campbell and Laherrère‘s] model is the assumption that
   recoverable petroleum resources are fixed, when the amount of oil which can be recovered depends on both
   the total amount of oil (a geological factor which is fixed), but also dynamic variables like price,
   infrastructure, and technology. If the amount of recoverable oil increases, as it has in the past, then the level
   predicted for peak production must increase and the date [ the production peak be] pushed further into the
   future. The reliance on discovery trends to estimate URR has received similar criticism as the faulty URR
   estimates, namely that estimates of field size tend to increase over time with improved recovery methods,
   better examination of seismic data, infill drilling, and so forth. This means that the size of the recent fields is
   being underestimated compared to older fields. An analogy would be to plant trees over twenty years and
   note that the size of the most recently planted trees was shrinking, and concluding that timber resources
   would become scarce.
Harvard                                                                                                                26
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                        Oil

                                    A2: Saudi numbers are fake
Saudi Arabia’s numbers are accurate
Ali al-Naimi, Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, May 7, 2004,
http://www.saudi-us-relations.org/newsletter2004/saudi-relations-interest-05-07.html
    In the case of Saudi Arabia our reserves were estimated to be about 88 billion barrels in 1970. Today we
    conservatively estimate them at 261 billion barrels, despite the intervening 35 years of production. Saudi
    Aramco President and CEO Abdallah Jum'ah will provide greater details on Saudi Arabia reserves and future
    production potential in the conference's second session. Some skeptics express this belief. Of the nearly
    three-fold increase in our reserve number over the past 30 years there is really nothing magical about these
    numbers. Our years of experience gained from producing oil fields along with advances in technology have
    provided us with invaluable new knowledge about our petroleum resources. This knowledge has helped us to
    better appreciate their size and enhanced our ability to recover these resources.

Saudi Arabia’s reserve increase in the 80s was legit
SUSRIS, Saudi-US Relations Information Service, Saudi Arabian Oil Fields Brimming, August 25, 2004,
http://www.saudi-us-relations.org/newsletter2004/saudi-relations-interest-08-25.html
    Why did Saudi Aramco report large reserves increases in the late 1980s? The reserves revisions were long
    overdue because of the extremely conservative nature of the company's reserves calculations. The company
    realized that with solid new evidence coming in based on actual field performance and advanced diagnostics,
    it had to revise its reserves upward. For example, Abqaiq, Saudi Aramco's most mature field, has been in
    production for 60 years and continues to produce 400,000 barrels per day -- and it will probably be producing
    about 200,000 barrels a day many years down the road. If original proved reserves figures had been
    maintained, Abqaiq production would have finished a decade ago; at the end of 2003, 2 billion barrels more
    than the reserves originally estimated in 1970 have already been produced from Abqaiq. Another big field,
    Safaniya, has already produced 1 billion barrels more than its 1970 original reserves estimate. So, there is a
    lot more oil to recover than originally thought. As a matter of fact, the company carefully reviews its reserves
    every year. Revisions are made as needed, based on a thorough technical analysis field by field, reservoir by
    reservoir. A critical factor in this assessment is the actual field performance which, as has been the case in
    many of the fields such as Abqaiq, Ghawar and Safaniya, necessitates upward changes. "This is a prudent
    business practice," Saleri said.
Harvard                                                                                                                27
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                        Oil

                              Huge Saudi supplies will be found
New exploration will reveal huge new Saudi supplies
Abdallah Jum'ah, President and CEO of Saudi Aramco, May 18, 2004, http://www.saudi-us-
relations.org/newsletter2004/saudi-relations-interest-05-18a.html
    Given our large oil reserve base we have been focusing our exploration efforts in the last decade primarily on
    natural gas, and these efforts have yielded rich dividends. The company's oil exploration activities have been
    kept at a more moderate level but have still resulted in a number of discoveries. Our oil exploration efforts
    will be appropriately accelerated in the future, and this leads me to a brief discussion of the future growth in
    oil reserves. Based on exploration data acquired across the Kingdom and various regional studies we estimate
    that more than half of Saudi Arabia's potential hydrocarbon-bearing areas are still relatively unexplored.
    These areas include the central and western parts of the [Robal Kali], the empty quarter in the south; vast
    areas in the northwest of the country; and the Saudi Arabian portion of the Red Sea. Extrapolating from
    available data we expect to find between 80 to 100 billion barrels of recoverable reserves in these areas not
    including additional recoveries expected from our known fields.
Harvard                                                                                                          28
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                  Oil

                         Tech solves – increased recovery rates
New mapping tech allows massive increases in recovery rates
Paul Roberts, Harper's Magazine, Finalist for the National Magazine Award, The End of Oil: A Perilous New
World, 2004, p. 54-55
   Second, companies have dramatically increased the amount of oil they get from a given field. As recently as
   the 1970s, drillers were lucky to extract 30 percent of the oil from a field, while effectively leaving 70
   percent in the ground as ―unrecoverable.‖ Even today, in less-developed oil regions, like Saudi Arabia,
   recovery rates are said to average just 25 percent. But with new mapping and drilling technology, operators
   can see where the remaining oil lies within a reservoir, and then drop in a precisely targeted new well to
   reach it. Such techniques have raised recovery rates to as high as 80 percent — a success that not only has
   boosted yields at new fields but is allowing companies to revive declining and even abandoned fields.
Harvard                                                                                                              29
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                      Oil

                     Computer tech solves – recovery percentage
Computer technology allows significantly more oil to be drained from wells
Curtis Rist, Discover, June, 1999, http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1511/is_6_20/ai_55926786,
accessed 8/6/04
   "People think of the oil industry as this backward, nineteenth-century industry with people randomly drilling
   holes," says Yergin. "But in fact, next to the military, it's emerged as probably the biggest consumer of
   computer technology in the world." Because of the way oil is distributed throughout cracks and pores in the
   Earth, as much as 70 percent of the oil from a typical well used to remain trapped in the ground. So anything
   that increases a single well's yield can have a huge impact on production. All the big oil companies are
   beginning to tap hard-to-reach deposits by using 3-D seismic imaging and computer-controlled sensors to
   detect where pockets of oil are located in a well. Once the well is bored, bits can be steered sideways through
   the ground in search of oil.
Harvard                                                                                                                 30
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                         Oil

                            Tech solves – extraction techniques
Oil extraction techniques can massively increase recoverable resources
Richard Heinberg, core faculty member at New College of California, The Party‘s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of
Industrial Societies, 2003, p. 106-107
   His second argument is that we are constantly becoming better at exploiting resources: We use new
   technology to extract more oil from known oilfields, become better at finding new oilfields, and can start
   exploiting oilfields that were previously too expensive and/or difficult to exploit. An initial drilling typically
   exploits only 20% of the oil in the reservoir. Even with the most advanced techniques using water, steam or
   chemical flooding to squeeze out extra oil, more than half the resource commonly remains in the ground. It is
   estimated that the 10 largest oilfields in the US will still contain 63% of their original oil when production
   closes down. Consequently, there is still much to be reaped in this area. According to the latest US
   Geological Survey assessment, such technical improvements are expected to increase the amount of available
   oil by 50%. At the same time, we have become better at exploiting each litre of oil. Since 1973, the average
   US car has improved its mpg by 60%. Home heating in Europe and the US has improved by 24—43%. Many
   appliances have become much more efficient — dishwashers and washing machines have cut energy use by
   about 50%

Improved extraction techniques could massively increase recoverable oil
Paul Roberts, Harper's Magazine, Finalist for the National Magazine Award, The End of Oil: A Perilous New
World, 2004, p. 55-56
   Worldwide, according to the USGS, enhanced recovery technologies will add another seven hundred billion
   barrels of oil to the world‘s tally of remaining oil — and delay by years the peak in production. Dan Butler,
   an analyst at the Energy Information Agency, the very optimistic forecasting arm of the U.S. Energy
   Department, says some of the biggest potential for improving recovery is in the Middle East. ―The Saudis
   have very primitive operations,‖ says Butler. ―They just let the oil gush out. But if you could get another ~
   percent out of Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Middle East, you would up your reserve base by at least a
   hundred billion barrels.‖
Harvard                                                                                                                  31
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                          Oil

                                         Tech solves – general
Improvements in technology and knowledge solve oil scarcity
Leonardo Maugeri, senior fellow at the World Economic Laboratory at MIT, senior fellow at the Foreign Policy
Association, Oil and Gas Journal, December 15, 2003
   The most frequently recurring fears in the world oil market since its inception have been the phantoms of
   scarcity and security; yet in reality its most enduring characteristic has been abundance. The basic reason is
   apparently complex and requires a short digression. Prof. Morris Adelman explained, "No mineral, including
   oil, will ever be exhausted."n2 Although oil is an exhaustible resource, it's completely misleading to assume
   that there is a fixed stock of oil that declines year after year, because the available quantity of oil depends
   only on time, technology, cost, and price. Time favors a greater knowledge of existing oil fields and always
   allows for an upgrading of their reserves. An example from Adelman's book is illuminating: "In California,
   the Kern River field was discovered in 1899. In 1942, after 43 years of depletion, 'remaining' reserves were
   54 million bbl. But in the next 44 years, it produced not 54 but 736 million bbl, and it had another 970
   million bbl 'remaining' in 1986. The field had not changed, but knowledge had , , ,"n3 Technological
   improvements essentially may reduce the cost of extracting oil (thus transfoming generic resources into
   proven reserves), enhance techniques for exploration (thus revealing more reserves than previously
   recognized), or increase the recovery rate of existing oil fields. In 1980, the average world recovery rate from
   existing oil reserves was about 22%; today it's 35%.

New technology makes oil shortages unlikely for decades
Curtis Rist, Discover, June, 1999, http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1511/is_6_20/ai_55926786,
accessed 8/6/04
   Surprise. Doomsday is nigh and oil has been selling at $10 to $15 a barrel, not $100. Adjusting for inflation,
   gasoline is cheaper today than it was before the Arab oil embargo. Indeed, the world seems to be awash in
   oil. This year, wells around the world--from the sands of Saudi Arabia to the deep continental trench off the
   coast of Brazil--will pump some 75 million barrels of oil each day to satisfy demand. That's roughly 25
   billion barrels a year, and the number is climbing at a rate between 2 and 3 percent a year. Barring a
   worldwide recession, the U.S. Energy Information Administration believes the world will be burning through
   110 million barrels a day by the year 2020. And it looks as though we still won't be running short by then,
   either. "It's hard for people who remember the seventies to accept this, but I believe we'll never `run out' of
   oil the way the pessimists used to think," says Michael Lynch, a political scientist at MIT. "People think of
   the Earth as having a certain amount of oil the way you might have a certain amount of money in your bank
   account," adds Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, who wrote The Prize, a
   history of oil, and The Commanding Heights, a recent study of market forces and the energy industry. "But in
   reality, the ultimate amount available to us is determined both by economics and technology" So although the
   United States has already spent more than half its domestic oil reserves on its energy-hungry economy, the
   gloom-and-doom predictions of the seventies were averted because of advances in oil technology and
   colossal new oil finds in West Africa, Colombia, and Russia. Roger Anderson, director of the energy
   research center at Columbia's Lamont-Doherty Earth. Observatory, expects the future will very likely hold
   more of the same. "If you pay smart people enough money," he says, "they'll figure out all sorts of ways to
   get the oil you need."

New technologies will keep oil production well ahead of the curve
Economist, February 8, 2001
   But can this pace of innovation continue? ―You must be kidding: we‘re just getting started,‖ says Euan Baird,
   the boss of Schlumberger, a giant oil-services firm. Mr Adelman, too, accepts that tomorrow‘s oil-
   exploration technology is bound to be better than today‘s. That is why he dismisses the idea of an oil crisis in
   the short to medium term. ―Scarcity is still assumed even by reasonable men and middle-of-the-road
   forecasters, but that is wrong. For the next 25 to 50 years, the oil available to the market is for all intents and
   purposes infinite.‖
Harvard                                                                                                                32
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                        Oil

                                     Deep drilling/Arctic solves
Deep drilling and Arctic reserves will allow major new discoveries
Paul Roberts, Harper's Magazine, Finalist for the National Magazine Award, The End of Oil: A Perilous New
World, 2004, p. 56
   Third, companies are much smarter at knowing where to look for oil. New geological understandings — for
   example, that oil can form anywhere within dozens of miles of a river delta, even in superdeep waters —
   have led to a welter of new discoveries in unexpected places, like the deep waters off the coast of West
   Africa. Deep-water oil is touted as the real frontier of the future and is the place where most oil companies
   and many analysts expect to find the bulk of the undiscovered oil. Excitement is particularly keen over
   ―deltaic‖ prospects in the deep-water Gulf of Mexico, off the coast of Africa and Brazil, as well as in the
   Arctic provinces of Canada and Greenland, Norway, and Siberia, where seismic surveys reveal subterranean
   structures identical to those beneath the oil-rich North Sea, but far larger. ―The Arctic is going to be the next
   big play,‖ promises Tom Ahlbrandt, the director of the USGS world assessment project and a prominent oil
   optimist. ―We feel that more than half of all undiscovered resources are in the deep offshore, of which half
   are in the Arctic. And we‘ve looked at only seven Arctic provinces; there are twenty-eight more we need to
   look at. We haven‘t even begun to discover all the oil that is out there.‖
Harvard                                                                                                                33
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                        Oil

                                          Deep drilling solves
Underwater resources will massively increase available oil supplies
Curtis Rist, Discover, June, 1999, http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1511/is_6_20/ai_55926786,
accessed 8/6/04
   These days a host of innovators is probing for new sources of oil underwater. Geologists have perfected
   seismic imaging of seafloor geology, with the hope of tapping into vast new oil fields like the one that lies
   beneath the Caspian Sea in Kazakhstan. That region could harbor a staggering 200 billion barrels--making it
   one of the largest oil basins ever discovered. And drilling companies can now venture well over a mile into
   the seafloor. Unmanned submarines make the descent, fitted with robotic arms that guide the drill into the
   seafloor. The Gulf of Mexico could produce a total of 15 billion barrels, the coast of Brazil 30 billion, and the
   coast of Angola and elsewhere along West Africa another 30 billion--totaling some 75 billion barrels. "This
   ultra-deepwater drilling moves into the realm of science fiction; it's something no one ever believed would be
   possible," says Lynch. By the year 2005, a fifth of the world's oil could be recovered from such deepwater
   drilling.
Harvard                                                                                                               34
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                       Oil

                                      Deep drilling = profitable
Deep sea drilling can be made profitable despite coming up dry on half the attempts
Curtis Rist, Discover, June, 1999, http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1511/is_6_20/ai_55926786,
accessed 8/6/04
   That prize has prompted oil companies to spread the risk of discovery among themselves. Chevron, working
   with a consortium of other oil companies, recently drilled an exploration well in the Gulf of Mexico in waters
   7,718 feet deep, a distance five times the height of the Empire State Building. The 618-foot Glomar Explorer,
   a former CIA vessel built during the Nixon administration to recover a Soviet nuclear submarine that sank
   deep in the Pacific, was converted into a deepwater-drill ship. And instead of dropping anchor--which is
   useless in such depths--the ship hovered over the spot with the help of the global positioning satellite system,
   which identified its latitude and longitude. First the crew lowered the pipe--21 inches wide and weighing a
   million pounds--into the water through a hole in the ship. Once the drill bit got to the seafloor, it bored
   another 10,000 feet until it had reached down 17,000 feet--more than three miles below the surface. There
   was just one problem: after $20 million in drilling, the well is said to have come up dry. That's not unusual.
   About half of all prospective wells come to naught. Nonetheless, oil companies consider the risky investment
   in deep-sea drilling to be money well-spent. "There's lots of oil to be found at that depth," predicts Anderson.
   "The big news is that it can be pulled out at a profit." And crews should soon be able to drill in even deeper
   water. The Glomar Explorer can't be used in water much deeper than 8,000 feet, because it doesn't remain
   stable against the million-pound pipe. But new, larger ships are under construction that could lower pipe
   down 10,000 feet or more.
Harvard                                                                                                               35
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                       Oil

                                     A2: inhospitable locations
The most inhospitable locations can be tapped
Curtis Rist, Discover, June, 1999, http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1511/is_6_20/ai_55926786,
accessed 8/6/04
   Even the most inhospitable locations are being made drill-friendly. A decade ago, oil was discovered in just
   over 200 feet of water off the coast of Newfoundland. Because icebergs flow through the area, no ordinary
   oil platform would work. Then engineers hired by a group of oil companies designed an iceberg-proof
   goliath: its base is a huge 16-point star made of 650,000 tons of concrete and steel. (The points, which are
   supposed to deflect and break up icebergs, have not yet actually collided with one.) The price: $4 billion. The
   platform, called the Hibernia, is expected to recover 615 million barrels of oil over 15 to 20 years. That's not
   much compared with, say, the 200 billion barrels that Saudi Arabia holds in its oil fields. But it shows how
   oil companies are squeezing oil from improbable places.
Harvard                                           36
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11   Oil




                 ***NONCONVENTIONAL OIL
Harvard                                                                                                                        37
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                                Oil

                                       Non-conventional oil solves
Unconventional oil will prevent high prices
John Mitchell, Chairman of the Energy and Environment Programme and Associate Research Fellow at the Royal
Institute of International Affairs, et al., The New Economy of Oil: Impacts on Business, Geopolitics, and Society,
2001, p. 58-59
Conventional oil resources are finite. Discoveries of new fields are not replacing what we currently extract, but the fraction of
discovered resources that is being extracted — the reserves — is increasing. At some point in the life of a reservoir production
will decline, and at some point in the life of a region the sum of these declines will outweigh the sum of the new discoveries and
increases in recovery. Eventually the world may replicate the declines of the United States, its most mature oil producing area.
Exactly when this will occur is uncertain; the TEA expects it to happen in the period 2010—20. However, unconventional oil
resources — heavy oil, tar sands and oil shale — are known to be very large, with quantities of oil in place many
times those of conventional oil. Key questions relate to the environmental impacts and the economics of extraction
and conversion to oil products or synthetic crude. The development of these reserves is likely to follow a supply
curve starting with present production, and growing as costs reduce, environmental legislation permits, and the
difficulty of extracting yet more from conventional sources increases. This transition to unconventional oil is already
taking place in Canada, and can be expected to gather momentum, especially during periods of high prices, and
become a feature of the period 2010—20. About two-thirds of current world exports originate in countries where
production is owned or closely controlled by the state, and where oil export revenues and rents are critical to the
national balance of payments and budget. On mainstream present projections of demand and supply, most or all of
these countries, principally in the Middle East, will reach peak production by 2010-20, or soon after. At that point,
with no further need to limit competition among themselves, rivalry is likely to intensify. Additional competition
from unconventional oil and other energy sources, from different countries, with private investment, is likely to limit
price increases from 2020 onwards just as conventional non-OPEC oil did in the period 1980—2000.

Nonconventional oil can keep up with supply for another century
Peter Odell, Professor Emeritus at the Erasmus University in Rotterdam, where he has been director of the center
for international energy studies, March 16, 2000, http://www.kkrva.se/sve/energi/odell.shtml
By contrast, non-conventional oil production has barely started. It is now being developed more rapidly but, using a
conservative assumption of only 3000 ? 109 barrels of recoverable reserves (within a resource base many times
larger), it will, under restraints imposed by costs, environmental and demand considerations, take 80-90 years to
reach its potential peak production (see figure 6a) at a level which seems likely to be a little lower than that reached
by conventional oil in the 2030s. As in the case of conventional and non-conventional gas, however, the two types
of oil, though designated by the nature of their occurrence, are essentially complementary in respect of satisfying
market demand. Customers are indifferent as to the sources of the crude oil from which their demands for products
can be derived; their interests lie only in the utility to them of the oil products they need. Thus, figure 6b shows the
production of both types of oil in an integrated way. From 2000 to 2030 conventional oil accounts for only about 12
per cent of total supply, so merely modestly supplementing increasing availabilities of conventional oil. Thereafter,
its relative importance to total supply rises sharply; and by 2060 it becomes the more important component in
overall supply. Oil supply in 2100 is predicated to be over 90 per cent non-conventional. The near-100 year period
suggested for the full change from conventional to non-conventional oil can be interpreted as reflecting a slow, but
continuing, process, based on the joint influences of economic considerations and technological developments.

Untapped sources like tar and shale oil will fill the gap if prices remain high
Economist, February 8, 2001
Even Exxon says it has learned one crucial lesson from earlier forecasting mistakes: it greatly underestimated the
power of technology. Thanks to advances in exploration and production technology, the amount of oil available has
increased enormously. Even hitherto uneconomic hydrocarbons such as tar sands are becoming more attractive.
Shell‘s Mr Moody-Stuart says that such ―non-traditional oil will eventually behave like non-OPEC oil or marginal
fields do today: if OPEC raises prices too much, these sources will help regulate the price.‖
Harvard                                                                                                               38
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                       Oil

                              Non-conventional oil can compete
Innovation ensures unconventional oil will become cheaper and easier to access
Paul Roberts, Harper's Magazine, Finalist for the National Magazine Award, The End of Oil: A Perilous New
World, 2004, p. 54-55
   But as in times past, depletion anxiety was quickly replaced by a surge of oil optimism. In 1975, spurred on
   by the high prices caused by the Arab oil embargo, oil companies began producing enormous volumes of oil
   from the North Sea, a deep-sea frontier previously dismissed as too technically challenging to develop
   economically. Two years later, huge volumes began to flow from extensive fields on Alaska‘s equally
   inhospitable North Slope. Optimists say that these successes and the many more since highlight a major flaw
   in the pessimists‘ theory: namely, their failure to credit the oil industry for becoming much cleverer since the
   gloomy 1970s. Barred from access to ―easy‖ Middle Eastern oil, oil companies were forced to reinvent how
   they looked for and produced oil, and the results have been astonishing. Drills today can now reach ten miles
   underground, move in any direction — even horizontally — and electronically detect oil and gas. Operators
   employ powerful supercomputers to create stunning three-dimensional seismic images of underground
   structures, showing precisely where oil- and gas-bearing rocks are and even identifying the best routes for
   drilling. For the industry, this explosion of technological advances has had three major effects. First,
   companies can now work in nearly any climate or environment, from permanently frozen tundra to a floating
   platform anchored two miles above the ocean floor — places previously dismissed as technically or
   economically impractical, like the Caspian or even frigid Siberia, which is widely regarded as the ―next‖ oil
   frontier. Thus, each year oil that was regarded as unreachable — or ―unconventional‖ — becomes
   conventional. For example, new production technologies are even allowing oil companies to produce
   previously unusable oil, such as the molasseslike ―heavy‖ oil of Venezuela and the massive reserves of tar
   sands in Alberta, Canada; indeed, the government of Alberta now claims to have ―reserves‖ equivalent to
   more than a trillion barrels of oil.

Unconventional oil is competitive with regular oil
John Mitchell, Chairman of the Energy and Environment Programme and Associate Research Fellow at the Royal
Institute of International Affairs, et al., The New Economy of Oil: Impacts on Business, Geopolitics, and Society,
2001, p. 54
    To date, most unconventional oil comes from steam injection and the mining of tar sands in Canada — where
    unconventional oil now already accounts for a significant fraction of national production — and from
    Orinoco heavy oil in Venezuela. In these countries production methods are competitive with conventional oil
    today. Shell‘s Muskeg River project, for example, is projected to be economic even with prices at $l0/bbl. In
    Northern Alberta alone, at least $l5bn is currently earmarked for further development of tar sands, with the
    result that Canada‘s production of unconventional oil could rise from roughly 0.6m b/d to around 2m b/d by
    2010.21 Technological progress may well allow oil to be produced from other unconventional sources in the
    future without raising the price.
Harvard                                                                                                                 39
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                         Oil

                 Non-conventional can fill in w/o consumption cuts
The shift to unconventional oil won’t require consumption cuts
John Mitchell, Chairman of the Energy and Environment Programme and Associate Research Fellow at the Royal
Institute of International Affairs, et al., The New Economy of Oil: Impacts on Business, Geopolitics, and Society,
2001, p. 39-41
    The world is not about to ‗run out‘ of oil We are perhaps approaching the mid-point of consumption of what
    are sometimes called conventional oil reserves, as defined by the economics and technology we now have.
    The rate of consumption of this visible part of the iceberg will slow as pressure in the producing oil fields
    declines, the oil flows more slowly, and it becomes more expensive to increase the fraction of the reserves
    (currently between 30% and 40% worldwide on average) that is actually extracted from reservoirs. This does
    not mean total oil production itself will decline: the focus of reserves will shift down to the hidden resources.
    Increasing amounts of unconventional oil will be produced from heavy oil and tar sands. More synthetic oil
    will be produced from coal and from gas reserves located far from markets. Perhaps the price will rise
    sufficiently to allow development of parts of the vast shale oil base.
Harvard                                                                                                                   40
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                           Oil

                                                Oil sands solve
Canadian oil sands can replace Gulf oil – it’s cheap enough to compete with conventional
sources
Gal Luft, Co-Director, Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, Energy Pulse, July 31, 2003,
http://www.energypulse.net/centers/article/article_print.cfm?a_id=421
    While the Department of Defense tries to stabilize Iraq, home of the world's second largest oil reserve, the
    Department of Energy has recently brought us remarkable news: the world second largest reserve with 50
    percent more oil than Iraq is actually not in the Middle East but across the border in the province of Alberta,
    Canada. How come? As of this year, Canada's oil reserves suddenly jumped by 3,600% from 4.8 billion
    barrels (bbl) last year to 180 bbl. This is not due to major exploration effort but rather to a drop in the cost of
    producing oil from Alberta's oil sands, which qualified the resource to be categorized in the economically
    recoverable "proven reserve" column. Oil sand is mud-like material composed of sand, water and clay
    wrapped in thick hydrocarbon called bitumen. Once the bitumen is separated from the sand and the water it
    can be refined into synthetic crude. Canadian officials boast that approximately 300 billion barrels underlie
    the 30,000 sq. miles of Alberta and are ultimately recoverable enough to pave a four lane super highway to
    the moon. This is more than Saudi Arabia's conventional reserves. With such wealth of energy in North
    America why should the U.S. maintain its dependency on oil from hostile countries? We can improve our
    energy security by simply promoting the development of the oil sands rather than being dragged deeper into
    the Middle East morass. Oil sands proponents promise that though production price is high--with current
    technology about $9 per barrel compared to $2 a barrel of Persian Gulf crude--it is likely to drop and become
    competitive. They point to the fact that today oil sands provide a third of Canada's crude output. In Alberta
    itself, oil sands are now producing more oil than conventional crude reserves. They also hold that such non-
    conventional crude spares oil companies high transportation and security premiums involved in importing oil
    from the volatile Middle East.
Harvard                                                                                                                 41
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                         Oil

                                      Oil sands are competitive
Gasification technology will make oil sands competitive
Lloyd Weaver, Energy Pulse, July 31, 2003,
http://www.energypulse.net/centers/article/article_print.cfm?a_id=421
    We should, however, factor in technology. Coal (or even petroleum coke) gasification technology will make
    it possible to make hydrogen on site in Alberta at a cheap price, refining sand oil into gasoline on the spot
    with no need for natural gas or naphtha whatsoever (see www.zeca.org). While this kind of science and
    technology may seem pie in the sky now, it is indeed possible, and it likely will happen with some variation
    or other. It may not be that far off. When this gasification technology is routine, oil from sands in Alberta
    will be seen in a totally different light. Not only that, but the identical technology will make methane (natural
    gas), hydrogen, and oil products from coal possible also, and with even higher efficiency. Calgary should be
    much larger in a 20 years or so, and should stay that way for a hundred years or more, or until the oil sands
    stop yielding oil. I suppose Illinois and other large coal states in the U.S. should enjoy a similar bonanza as
    well.
Harvard                                           42
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11   Oil




                           ***REPLACEMENTS
Harvard                                                                                                               43
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                       Oil

                            Peak oil wrong – organic ag/biotech
Organic agriculture and biotech will lessen the impact of the fossil fuel crunch
Richard Heinberg, core faculty member at New College of California, The Party‘s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of
Industrial Societies, 2003, p. 178
   This optimistic vision of the future of agriculture is currently being put forward by two camps with
   diametrically opposed sets of recommendations. One camp, consisting of the organic and ecological
   agriculture movements, recommends eliminating chemical inputs, shortening the distance between producer
   and consumer, and reducing or eliminating monocropping in order to support biodiversity. A recent report by
   Greenpeace International entitled The Real Green Revolution: Organic and Agroecological Farming in the
   South notes that in ―this research we have found many examples where the adoption of [organic and
   ecological agriculture] has led to significantly increased yields.‖ The other camp, led by the agricultural
   biotechnology industry, has proposed an entirely different solution: the genetic engineering of new crop
   varieties that can outproduce old ones, grow in salty soil, or yield more nourishment than traditional varieties
   while requiring fewer chemical inputs. According to Hendrik Verfaille, President and CEO of Monsanto, the
   foremost corporate producer of gene-spliced agricultural seeds, this ―technology increases ... crop yields, in
   some cases dramatically so. It is a technology that has been adopted by farmers faster than any other
   agricultural technology.‖ Optimists in both camps assume that energy conservation and alternative energy
   sources will cushion the impact of fossil-fuel depletion on agriculture.
Harvard                                                                                                               44
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                       Oil

                                       Natural gas fill-in solves
*Natural gas can be profitably converted to replace oil, keeping prices low
Curtis Rist, Discover, June, 1999, http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1511/is_6_20/ai_55926786,
accessed 8/6/04
   The most promising copper bullet is new technology for turning natural gas into fuels like gasoline and
   diesel. For years, natural gas has been used mostly for generating electricity and fueling kitchen stoves and
   some home furnaces. In the Alaskan oil fields the gas is pumped back into the ground to maintain pressure in
   the oil wells. In Nigeria and the Middle East, it's simply flared. But such waste is soon to become a thing of
   the past. Chemical engineers long ago figured out how to convert natural gas into liquid fuel (see "Gas to
   Gasoline," page 86), but the process was never cost-effective. "The Nazis did it in the final days of World
   War II because they had to," says Anderson. The South Africans followed suit during the international
   boycott through the apartheid years. "No one would sell them any oil," he notes. "They had to figure out how
   to make it themselves." Still, it was expensive. Twenty years ago, a natural gas plant that produced 100,000
   barrels of liquid fuel a day would have cost about $100 billion to build, says Anderson. But now that
   companies are doing it on a large scale and with better technology, the cost of building a natural gas plant has
   come way, way down. Today a natural gas plant can be constructed for as little as $10 billion, bringing the
   total expense of producing a barrel of fuel from natural gas down to under $20. "That will effectively put a
   ceiling on the price that anyone can charge for a barrel of oil--which is something that has never existed in
   history," says Anderson. "The moment anyone tries to charge above that amount, people will switch to fuels
   derived from natural gas."
Harvard                                                                                                              45
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                      Oil

                                           Lots of natural gas
Natural gas in hydrates will expand the available resources significantly
Curtis Rist, Discover, June, 1999, http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1511/is_6_20/ai_55926786,
accessed 8/6/04
   In many parts of the world, the seafloor contains natural gas trapped inside ice crystals called hydrates. The
   hydrates can be extracted by lowering a pipe into the ground and drawing up a core of mud and crystals. The
   problem is that unless the core is properly contained, the change in pressure and temperature at the surface
   can cause it to explode, says Edwards. But that isn't stopping the Japanese, who plan to drill and see if it's
   feasible to extract such fuel. The payoff could be huge. "There's at least again as much natural gas trapped in
   hydrates as has already been discovered, and probably more," Edwards says.

5 trillion barrels of natural gas are available
Curtis Rist, Discover, June, 1999, http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1511/is_6_20/ai_55926786,
accessed 8/6/04
   By most estimates, there's enough natural gas to produce about 1.6 trillion barrels of oil. Most of that gas
   probably will not be converted to oil. Still, the figure offers a hint at the extent of the world's natural gas
   reserves: more than all the petroleum ever consumed--roughly 830 billion barrels--and enough to fuel the
   world for some 60 years at current rates of consumption. And there may be far more. John Edwards, a former
   Shell geologist and now an adjunct geology professor at the University of Colorado in Boulder, believes that
   underwater deposits of another form of natural gas could raise the total to 5 trillion barrels.
Harvard                                                                                                               46
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                       Oil

                                   Rising prices  renewables
Rising oil prices ensure a transition to renewables
Jerry Taylor, director of natural resource studies at the Cato Institute, National Review, September 7, 2000
   Are these prices a mirage? Well, they're real enough, but they don't reflect underlying realities about the
   availability of oil. Although the Saudis are producing 8 million barrels a day at a cost of $1.50 a barrel, they
   were churning out 10 million barrels a day during the Gulf War and have the capacity to go as high as 16
   million barrels a day if they wished, at no increase in marginal cost. While it's true that the rest of OPEC is
   producing at near capacity, OPEC is less a cartel than it is one dominant market leader — Saudi Arabia--and
   a collection of moderately influential followers. Non-OPEC producers thus face a difficult dilemma. The
   Saudis are clearly capable of flooding the market at a moment's notice, driving prices back down and making
   investments today unprofitable tomorrow. To invest or not to invest is really to bet on Saudi production
   behavior. Up until now, most non-OPEC producers believed that the Saudis were simply engaged in the
   economic equivalent of a drive-by shooting of oil consumers, an undertaking made easier by the exogenous
   developments in the global economy over the last few years. The same dilemma is faced by consumers. As
   most any environmental activist will tell you, we have a tremendous cupboard of energy-efficient
   technologies and alternative-energy sources that have been gathering dust because, with energy cheaper than
   water, it made little sense to invest in them. If prices remain high, America can, over the long run, shift away
   from oil consumption far more quickly — and far more dramatically — than it could in the 1970s. While
   demand for oil is inelastic in the short run, every energy economist knows that it's quite elastic in the long
   run.

The oil crunch makes renewable development inevitable
Richard Price, Editor, Pipeline Magazine, May 17, 2004,
http://www.pipelinedubai.com/press/2004/pr_04_0482.htm, accessed 8/5/04
    ―The future driver for renewable energy will not be global warming, but security of supply. ―We forecast a
    major increase in investment in all sources of renewable energy as ‗conventional‘ energy prices rise.
    Windpower is already attracting investment but as onshore sites are used up attention is being focused
    offshore. Only 16 offshore windfarms have been installed to date, but our World Offshore Wind Database
    now lists over 220 prospects. Of course not all will go ahead, but what is certain is that a significant new
    sector is now developing. Wave and tidal power is at an even earlier stage of development but already some
    70 prospects are under consideration. ―Biomass is also attracting attention worldwide with power plants
    under consideration using a wide range of feedstocks, from farm and forest waste to specially grown energy
    crops.‖ Douglas-Westwood is an independent company specialising in energy business research and analysis.
    Based in Canterbury, England, its client list reads like a ‗who‘s who‘ of the world energy industry, from the
    oil majors and their contractors to renewable energy operators and the major investment banks.
Harvard                                           47
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11   Oil




                            ***A2: THEIR ARGS
Harvard                                                                                                               48
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                       Oil

                               A2: SQ high prices prove peak oil
Current prices are not from shortages
Ali al-Naimi, Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, May 7, 2004,
http://www.saudi-us-relations.org/newsletter2004/saudi-relations-interest-05-07.html
    This is particularly true when the primary factors driving prices are things other than the supply and demand
    of crude oil in international markets. This is the case today. Let me expand on this point. There is no general
    shortage of crude oil in today's market. Supplies are readily available. Any buyer or seller of crude oil will
    tell you this. Rather, prices are being driven by other factors including fears of instability in key oil-
    producing countries and regions, the movement of large investment funds into communities like oil, just in
    time inventory practices, refining bottlenecks and the industry's struggle to produce sufficient quantities of
    spec gasoline in the U.S. that meets currently mandated environmental standards. In the U.S. a plethora of
    state and local regulations have vulcanized the gasoline markets placing increasing strains on refiners to meet
    local demands.
Harvard                                                                                                               49
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                       Oil

                                 A2: Oil company assessments
Oil companies always make cautious assessments
Leonardo Maugeri, senior fellow at the World Economic Laboratory at MIT, senior fellow at the Foreign Policy
Association, Oil and Gas Journal, December 15, 2003
   On the other hand, international oil companies are also impeded in their expansion by two main factors:
   inaccessibility of the largest and cheapest reserves in the world (i.e., those in the Persian Gulf) to foreign
   investments; and the dictates of the financial markets, which measure the return on capital of companies'
   plans according to a long-term oil price of about $ 16/bbl and require a substantial premium with respect to
   weighted cost on capital for the oil sector (which is generally considered 8%). Hence oil companies are
   obliged to dismiss many investment opportunities worldwide because they do not fit these very tight
   requirements. And the larger a company's production, the larger the challenge, because higher production
   requires higher replacement ratios. Thus financial discipline puts oil majors under considerable stress as far
   as reserve replacement is concerned, reducing their options for sustaining future production. Basically, the
   financial markets' prudent approach (maybe too prudent) depends on the assumption of oil depreciation in the
   long term; oil is considered a semimature commodity whose fate is closely connected with that of most raw
   minerals, all affected by a rise-and-fall consumption pattern in modern economic history. According to this
   pattern, just as the Stone Age did not end for the lack of stones, the Oil Age will not end because of the
   scarcity of oil. Rather oil will inevitably be surpassed in convenience by a new source of energy in the future.
Harvard                                                                                                            50
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                    Oil

                                     A2: oil company behavior
Oil company behavior proves they’re more concerned about price collapse than a supply
crisis
Suzan Mazur, April 22, 2004, http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/042204_mazur_morgan_oil.html,
accessed 8/6/04
   Lynch also claims Campbell is himself raising estimates of URR as well as extending the peak out – that
   Campbell first predicted peak oil for 1989. He says in 2002 Campbell updated a table from his 1997 book
   increasing the amount of URR by over 100 bb in 5 years, attributing it to countries discovering more oil
   "than they ever would have in 1997.‖ Lynch concludes that the danger in the Middle East is more political
   when it comes to the supply of oil, and not its running out. A Barron's 4/5/2004 editorial suggests the real
   scare is that "OPEC producers will stop pricing their oil in dollars and switch to a basket of currencies for
   both the pricing and settlement of crude-oil transactions.‖ And Crown Prince Abdullah's historic visit to
   Moscow and talks with Vladimir Putin are further proof of politics as oil's ace card. Says Lynch, "If you
   believe resources are scarce and companies should run up their debt levels, buy up reserves, sign a long-term
   contract for engineers, do everything they can – nobody's doing that. They're trying to hunker down against
   another price collapse because that's much more likely than prices staying up at $35."
Harvard                                                                                                             51
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                     Oil

                               A2: abandoning their businesses
Oil companies aren’t abandoning the business – they’re just shifting their resources
Suzan Mazur, April 22, 2004, http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/042204_mazur_morgan_oil.html,
accessed 8/6/04
   As further proof of peak oil, Campbell adds that the major oil companies are getting out of the business –
   shedding staff, divesting marketing sectors, outsourcing jobs, cutting back on exploration and drilling fewer
   wells – the seven sisters are now four. He notes the majors are also buying back company shares (i.e., BP),
   and argues that "the value of their past is more important than their future.‖ He quotes the late Robert
   Anderson of Arco: "This is a sunset industry and the sun is fairly low in the sky." However, Campbell does
   spare the more "nimble" independent oil companies, who he says will press on producing what's left,
   subcontracting to state companies however they can, through initiative, enterprise and bribes. And that oil in
   the ground will become increasingly valuable. Lynch argues the oil majors are alive and well, thinking about
   returns and making their money upstream, just not investing in things like refineries, etc. downstream. He
   says lack of spare capacity and any pullback from the oil business is not because there's not enough oil out
   there. It's due to economics and politics.
Harvard                                                                                                           52
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                   Oil

                                   A2: Industry consolidation
Industry consolidation is natural – it’s not a sign of peak oil
Dave McGowan, Newsletter #52, March 13, 2004, http://www.davesweb.cnchost.com/nwsltr52.html
   Ruppert's arguments range from the vaguely compelling to the downright bizarre. One argument that pops up
   repeatedly is exemplified by this Ruppert-penned line: "One of the biggest signs of the reality of Peak Oil
   over the last two decades has been a continual pattern of merger-acquisition-downsizing throughout the
   industry." Really? And is that pattern somehow unique to the petroleum industry? Or is it a pattern that has
   been followed by just about every major industry? Is the consolidation of the supermarket industry a sign of
   the reality of Peak Groceries? And with consolidation of the media industry, should we be concerned about
   Peak News? Or should we, perhaps, recognize that a pattern of monopoly control - characterized by mergers,
   acquisitions, and downsizing - represents nothing more than business as usual throughout the corporate
   world?
Harvard                                                                                                                 53
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                         Oil

                                  A2: Declining demand growth
Declining demand growth is evidence of efficiency, not tight supplies
Michael Lynch, President of Strategic Energy and Economic Research, Inc., and Research Affiliate at the Center
for International Studies at MIT, Minerals and Energy, July, 2004, http://www.gasresources.net/Lynch(Hubbert-
Deffeyes).htm
   And Deffeyes, relying on global production and the declining growth in production as evidence of resource
   scarcity is falling into a similar trap. National or regional production may reflect resource scarcity, but global
   production is driven by demand, and the declining demand growth since the price shocks in the early 1970s is
   evidence of greater efficiency and fuel switching, not scarcity. He is confusing geology as the driving factor,
   not demand.
Harvard                                                                                                              54
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                      Oil

                                  Peak oil wrong – propaganda
Predictions of oil shocks are propagandistic doomsaying
Stephen Moore, director of fiscal policy studies at the Cato Institute, March 17, 1999, ―Low Oil Prices: A Fill Up
of Good News,‖ http://www.cato.org/dailys/03-17-99.html
    First, apocalyptic predictions from academics, government officials and the media should always be treated
    with a healthy dose of skepticism. Many of the doomsayers who predicted $100 a barrel oil in 2000 are the
    same people who falsely predicted nuclear winter, massive famine across the globe, cities so polluted that gas
    masks would be required and other crises of biblical proportions. And these are the same pessimists who
    somehow have concluded that low oil prices are the problem. Just remember these Chicken Littles have a
    perfect record: they have been wrong every time.
Harvard                                                                                                                 55
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                         Oil

                                  Peak oil scholars not qualified
The peak oil proponents don’t publish their research
Michael Lynch, President of Strategic Energy and Economic Research, Inc., and Research Affiliate at the Center
for International Studies at MIT, Minerals and Energy, July, 2004, http://www.gasresources.net/Lynch(Hubbert-
Deffeyes).htm
   The lack of rigor in many of the Hubbert modelers‘ arguments makes them hard to refute. The huge amount
   of writing, along with undocumented quotes and vague remarks, necessitates exhaustive review and
   response. A later paper will provide more complete coverage of the debate, but the focus here will be on the
   primary substantive shortcomings. Perhaps because they are not academics, the primary authors have a
   tendency to publish results but not research. In fact, by relying heavily on a proprietary database, Campbell
   and Laherrere have generated a strong shield against criticism of their work, making it nearly impossible to
   reproduce or check. Similarly, there is little or no research published, merely the assertion that the results are
   good. (See below.) There are a number of points that are taken by the Hubbert modelers that are crucial to
   their work which have no evident empirical or theoretical support. For example, while Campbell and
   Laherrere (1998) states that ―in any large region, unrestrained extraction of a finite resource rises along a
   bell-shaped curve that peaks when about half the resource is gone.‖ The first shortcoming of this argument is
   that no countries have ‗unrestrained extraction‘—everywhere, a host of regulations and taxes, among other
   policies, affect the level of exploration and production. And in fact, few countries exhibit production in a
   classic bell curve, which is sometimes admitted by Hubbert modelers. (Laherrere 2000)
Harvard                                                                                                                 56
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                         Oil

                               Campbell and Laherrere are dumb
Campbell and Laherrere don’t have rigorous science on their side – their predictions fail to
match up with reality
Suzan Mazur, April 22, 2004, http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/042204_mazur_morgan_oil.html,
accessed 8/6/04
   And Lynch still believes "There are no good reserve numbers anywhere in the world – especially in the past
   30 years." But he says he's referring to "proved reserves" not the ultimate amount available. And that proved
   reserves numbers are not really very important in long-term modeling. He characterizes Colin Campbell's and
   Jean Laherrère's modeling as "curve fitting" – not geological research – "like people who look at stock
   market cycles and try to come up with waves.‖ Lynch acknowledges that field size is determined by geology
   but says "the process of discovery is an economic one." Lynch also accuses Laherrère of mixing up political
   and economic events with geological ones in terms of the pause in oil exploration in the Middle East after
   1980, when Lynch says there was a world oil glut, and the Saudis and Kuwaitis stopped exploring because
   they have 100 years of oil left. And then the wars happened, Iran/Iraq and the Gulf War. What's more, Lynch
   says the creaming curves Campbell produces are not reliable estimates because field sizes are not stable –
   citing field growth according to the IHS database in Norway (where horizontal drilling is producing results
   which could never be realized otherwise, he says), in Britain and Canada . Lynch says that Jean Laherrère
   told the Abu Dhabis their oil was scarce and he just wasn't believed and that OPEC doesn't even want to deal
   with this "nonsense" but people keep asking them about it. Says Lynch, "If you look at all their [Campbell,
   Laherrère] curves, what you find is they're not doing serious statistical analysis. They're just drawing curves
   and then eyeballing them. Just looking at them and saying, does this appear to follow a pattern?" Lynch looks
   at slides regarding British North Sea production. He says we were told the big fields have been discovered
   and the small fields don't matter and new technology won't increase recovery. But he says Campbell was
   wrong about his 1991 predictions of 500,000 barrels a day, citing current production at 2 million b/p/d and
   that this suggests "you don't know that the estimate of total resources in the UK is reliable, that it is stable.‖
Harvard                                                                                                                57
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                        Oil

                             Hubbert’s peak is empirically wrong
Hubbert’s peak empirically isn’t descriptive of oil economies
Michael Lynch, President of Strategic Energy and Economic Research, Inc., and Research Affiliate at the Center
for International Studies at MIT, Minerals and Energy, July, 2004, http://www.gasresources.net/Lynch(Hubbert-
Deffeyes).htm
   The recent authors, notably Campbell and Laherrere have apparently rediscovered the Hubbert curve, but
   without understanding it, at least initially. Campbell and Laherrere initially argued that production should
   follow a bell curve, at least in an unconstrained province. But this is demonstratively not the case in practice:
   most nations‘ production does not follow a Hubbert curve. In fact, Campbell (2003) shows production curves
   (historical and forecast) for 51 non-OPEC countries, and only 8 of them could be said to resemble a Hubbert
   curve even approximately. The authors initially responded to this weakness by arguing that the Hubbert
   curve could have multiple peaks, which of course means it would not follow a bell curve at all, and destroys
   the explanatory value of the bell curve. As the alleged value of the Hubbert curve lies partly in demonstrating
   the production decline post-peak, not knowing whether any given peak is the final one renders this useless,
   nor would the peak imply that midpoint production had been reached (indicating URR).
Harvard                                                                                                              58
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                      Oil

                           A2: Bell curve has empirically worked
A bell curve is natural and has nothing to do with supply shortages
Michael Lynch, President of Strategic Energy and Economic Research, Inc., and Research Affiliate at the Center
for International Studies at MIT, Minerals and Energy, July, 2004, http://www.gasresources.net/Lynch(Hubbert-
Deffeyes).htm
   That the curve appears to have some validity can be easily explained: a bell (or logistic or Gaussian) curve
   represents exponential growth and decline, which is typical of large populations and/or persistent capital
   stock. Oil production can only grow slowly in any mature province, as no new field will represent more than
   a small proportion of existing supply. And the amount of equipment operating can usually only grow
   fractionally, as industry finds it inefficient to maintain the capacity necessary to double its manufacturing
   stock in a brief period. Conversely, even with no additional investment, production decline will be slow as
   existing producing capital has been paid for and is allowed to decline and depreciate, but is not immediately
   closed in. Therefore, exponential growth and decline is normal, and while the bell curve is not necessarily the
   precise path likely to be followed, its presence is hardly proof of an immutable, natural, scientifically-
   determined law.
Harvard                                                                                                              59
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11                                                                      Oil

                     IHS (Petroconsultants) say peak oil is wrong
Those with the IHS database say the peak oil proponents are wrong
Michael Lynch, President of Strategic Energy and Economic Research, Inc., and Research Affiliate at the Center
for International Studies at MIT, Minerals and Energy, July, 2004, http://www.gasresources.net/Lynch(Hubbert-
Deffeyes).htm
   A specific, telling example of this shortcoming relates to the proprietary nature of the database being used.
   Many acknowledge that the Petroconsultants (now IHS Energy) database is high quality, however, since it is
   only available for a large fee, few have been able to access it and double-check the results which Campbell
   and Laherrere claim to have achieved. That lack of access has served as the first line of defense for the two,
   who often respond to criticism with comments such as (in response to Lynch) ―Your problem is that you do
   not have any reliable database (and the experience to use it).‖7 Accepting that the IHS Energy database
   represents more accurate assessments of reserves than corporate reports, relying on P50 instead of P90
   estimates,8 this still leaves unanswered the question of whether or not the field size estimates will grow due
   to technical advances, better understanding of the geology, and so forth. Campbell and Laherrere insist that it
   doesn‘t, without providing evidence.9 If, indeed, the estimates of field size tend to grow over time, then the
   creaming curves would not be accurate, as the later part of the curve would be underestimated. Finally, those
   who have had access to the IHS Energy database dispute the findings of Campbell and Laherrere, including
   the geologists of the USGS, who relied on the database in concluding that reserve growth is not only real but
   substantial (600 billion barrels; see USGS 2000). Perhaps more damning, personnel at IHS Energy
   themselves estimate global reserve growth at 373 billion barrels and total URR at over 3000 billion barrels.
   Where Campbell and Laherrere foresee remaining recoverable resources of conventional petroleum limited
   to 1100 billion barrels, IHS estimates it at over 2200 billion, a huge difference. (Stark 2002) Perhaps the
   creators of the database understand it less perfectly than Campbell and Laherrere, but that is hard to accept
   without further evidence.
Harvard                                           60
9ca1a7d7-a54c-4272-b318-2ad48ab72daf.doc 8/3/11   Oil

								
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