Marketing and Crop Insurance Plan Worksheet
What's in the planning worksheet? Step 1 (page 1): Describe goals and strategic and tactical plans Step 2 (page 2): Describe revenue requirements per acre, for the farm, and break-even prices Step 3 (page 3): Describe production available for pricing under alternative yield scenarios Step 4 (page 4 & 5 ): Calculate your crop insurance guarantees (and, losses in the event a loss is triggered) Step 5 (pages 6 and 7): Lay out your pricing plan and how you will likely respond to evolving opportunites and risks
Step1 : Describe your goals and your strategic and tactical plans
Planning.xls
Page 1
Step 2: Revenue requirements to meet alternative targets
Measures Cover economic cost: Cover cash flow requirements: Maintain equity: Revenue Required Per acre Farm Price required / bu given average yield Source of Information:
Corn:
Soybeans: Cover economic cost: Cover cash flow requirements: Maintain equity: Farm: Cover economic cost: Cover cash flow requirements: Maintain equity:
Planning.xls
Page 2
Step 3: Calculate production at selected yields
Probability Expected Gross Realized yield that yield Local Cash Revenue @ as a percent of will be less Market Expected Corn APH historical Realized than the Price Local Cash Acres yield average yield yield stated yield @harvest Market Price Production 1,000 125% 160.6 160,625 bu $2.10 $337,313 1,000 128.5 100% 128.5 128,500 bu $2.10 $269,850 1,000 85% 109.2 109,225 bu $2.10 $229,373 1,000 75% 96.4 96,375 bu $2.10 $202,388 1,000 65% 83.5 83,525 bu $2.10 $175,403 1,000 50% 64.3 64,250 bu $2.10 $134,925 1,000 25% 32.1 32,125 bu $2.10 $67,463 1,000 10% 12.9 12,850 bu $2.10 $26,985
LDP /bu
LDP for Farm
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
GR @ Expected Local Cash Market Price + LDP $337,313 $269,850 $229,373 $202,388 $175,403 $134,925 $67,463 $26,985
Realized yield as a percent of Soybean APH historical Realized Acres yield average yield yield Production 1,000 125% 53.8 53,750 bu 1,000 43.0 100% 43.0 43,000 bu 1,000 85% 36.6 36,550 bu 1,000 75% 32.3 32,250 bu 1,000 65% 28.0 27,950 bu 1,000 50% 21.5 21,500 bu 1,000 25% 10.8 10,750 bu 1,000 10% 4.3 4,300 bu
Probability Expected Gross that yield Local Cash Revenue @ will be less Market Expected than the Price Local Cash stated yield @harvest Market Price $4.45 $239,188 $4.45 $191,350 $4.45 $162,648 $4.45 $143,513 $4.45 $124,378 $4.45 $95,675 $4.45 $47,838 $4.45 $19,135
LDP /bu
LDP for Farm
$0.85 $0.85 $0.85 $0.85 $0.85 $0.85 $0.85 $0.85
$45,688 $36,550 $31,068 $27,413 $23,758 $18,275 $9,138 $3,655
GR @ Expected Local Cash Market Price + LDP $284,875 $227,900 $193,715 $170,925 $148,135 $113,950 $56,975 $22,790
Planning.xls
Page 3
Step 4a. Calculate Crop Insurance Guarantees for Alternative Plans for CORN:
Calculate Farm Yield Plan Guarantee (MPCI plan) Yield RMA guarantee Total Bu Price / valued @ Guarantee bu RMA price Acres 1,000 = 90,000 x $2.05 = $184,500 Calculate Losses Loss = Yield guar. - Yield Indemnity = Loss x RMA Price Indemnity for farm = Acres x Indemnity
APH yield 128.5 x
Coverage Guar. bu Level / acre 70% = 90.0 x
Realized yield
Calculate Farm Revenue Plan Guarantee (RA Without Replacement Price Guarantee) Realized harvest futures price x = Indemnity = Rev. Guar. Realized Rev. Indemnity for farm = Acres x Indemnity
APH yield 128.5 x
Base Futures Price $2.50
=
Revenue Coverage Guarantee Revenue Level / Acre Guarantee Acres $321.25 x 70% = $224.88 x 1,000 = $224,875
Realized yield
Realized revenue
Calculate Farm Revenue Plan With Replacement Price Coverage Guarantee (CRC, RA w/ RPC) Base Base Revenue Base Futures Coverage Guarantee Revenue Price Level / Acre Guarantee APH yield Acres 128.5 x $2.50 = $321.25 x 70% = $224.88 x 1,000 = $224,875 Indemnity = max[base, harvest] Guarantee - Realized revenue
Realized yield x Futures Price @ Harvest 128.5 x = x 70% = Harvest Revenue Guarantee / Acre x 1,000 = Harvest Revenue Guarantee
Realized harvest futures price =
Realized revenue
Indemnity for Farm = Acres x Indemnity
Planning.Xls
Page 4
Step 4b. Calculate Crop Insurance Guarantees for Alternative Plans for SOYBEANS:
Calculate Farm Yield Plan Guarantee (MPCI plan) Yield RMA guarantee Price / valued @ bu RMA price $5.15 = $155,015 Calculate Losses Loss = Yield Realized guar. yield - Yield Indemnity = Loss x RMA Price Indemnity for farm = Acres x Indemnity
APH yield 43.0
x
Cov. Level 70%
Guar. bu / acre = 30.1 x
Total Bu Guarantee Acres 1,000 = 30,100 x
Calculate Farm Revenue Plan Guarantee (RA Without Replacement Price Guarantee) Realized harvest futures price x = Indemnity = Rev. Guar. Realized Rev. Indemnity for farm = Acres x Indemnity
Base Futures Price APH yield 43.0 x $4.85 =
Revenue Coverage Guarantee / Level Acre $208.55 x 70% = $145.99 x
Revenue Guarantee Acres 1,000 = $145,985
Realized yield
Realized revenue
Calculate Farm Revenue Plan With Replacement Price Coverage Guarantee (CRC, RA w/ RPC) Base Base Revenue Base Futures Coverage Guarantee / Revenue Price Level Acre Guarantee APH yield Acres 43.0 x $4.85 = $208.55 x 70% = $145.99 x 1,000 = $145,985 Indemnity = max[base,h arvest] Guarantee Realized revenue
Realized yield x Futures Price @ Harvest 43.0 x = x 70% = Harvest Revenue Guarantee / Acre x 1,000 = Harvest Revenue Guarantee
Realized harvest futures price =
Realized revenue
Indemnity for Farm = Acres x Indemnity
Planning.Xls
Page 5
Step 5a: Describe Your Marketing Plan for Corn
Target Price targets / scaling up rules Method (s) of sale Actual
Pricing Period
% Priced In Cum. to Period date
Bushels Price In Cum. to Cum. to Period date In Period date
Bushels Priced Cum. to In Period date
Price Received Cum. to In Period date
Value
Prior to March15
Late Spring / early summer
Harvest
Post-Harvest
Acres
Bu/acre
Production
Total =>
Actual production => x = Total bushels needed to meet pre-harvest contracts => Bushels to buy back { [Greater of contracted - production], 0} => Cost to buy back bushels to fill contract needs { Bushels to buy back x price / bu} => LDP Total bu @ /bu =
-
+
Planning.Xls
Page 6
Step 5b: Describe Your Marketing Plan for Soybeans
Target Price targets / scaling up rules Method (s) of sale Actual
Pricing Period
% Priced Cum. to In Period date
Bushels Cum. to In Period date
Price Cum. to In Period date
Bushels Priced Cum. to In Period date
Price Received Cum. to In Period date
Value
Prior to March15
Late Spring / early summer
Harvest
Post-Harvest
Acres Bu/acre Production Actual production => x = Total bushels needed to meet pre-harvest contracts => Bushels to buy back { [Greater of contracted - production], 0} => Cost to buy back bushels to fill contract needs { Bushels to buy back x price / bu} => LDP Total bu @
Total =>
-
/bu =
+
Mkt
Planning.Xls
Page 7