Hello investors in New York, London, Shanghai, Tokyo, Auburn
California, Brisbane Australia, Toronto, Montreal, Memphis and Fairfield
California. This is John Thomas, the Mad Hedge Fund Trader, for Macro
Millionaire. I am the publisher of the Diary of the Mad Hedge Fund
Trader, and I’m here to show you how to invest like the traders who
always come up with winners. I’ve been in this game for 40 years, and
I’m happy to pass my tricks of the trade on to you for Macro Millionaire.
To see the charts and research that back up my show today, please go to
my website at www.MacroMillionaire.com.
Today, we are going to review our long term strategy. Take a look at the
90,000 flip view and try and detach ourselves from the day-to-day combat
in the marketplace which today seems to be going our way. So, I’ll just
let the markets do their thing and look at the long-term strategy which
you guys virtually signed up for when you bought this program. By the
way, this is a picture that I took 10 years ago flying in MiG29 at 90,000
feet over Russia. This picture was taken in the middle of the day. You
can see the curvature of the earth behind me and notice that the sky is
black and that is outer space. Great experience, love to do it again and
nothing like flying in Mach 2.5.
I am running a global long-short portfolio which is made up of stocks,
bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate.
I seek to invest across sectors, across markets, across instruments and
borders. The basic idea is to go long the under-priced fast growing assets
and to short over-priced low growth assets. The emphasis of course, is
always on absolute returns in all market conditions and to exercise
aggressive risk control through dynamic hedging. And you’ve seen us do
this for the last four months. The instruments I'm involved in include
equities, options, futures contracts, convertible bonds, exchange trade
funds or ETFs, foreign currencies, and bonds including government,
corporate, and sovereign nation bonds.
The tools we use, fundamental research is the big one. But I do use
technical analysis to execute the trades. You want to invest like the
fundamentalist and execute like the technician. Quantitative analysis
helps with matching flow of funds, the big whales, see what they're doing
and that’s a big help and of course, our heavy 40-year old network of
contacts around the world who have a tendency to call me up in the
middle of the night and tell me when something important is happening.
That’s when I learned that Russia’s wheat crop was on fire and that a
huge bull market in agricultural commodities was about to begin.
Transcribed by: firstname.lastname@example.org Page 1 of 14
Of course, I like to invest around or trade around a major long term trends
which are going to be driving the world economy for the next couple of
decades. Of course, the big one is the growth of the global population.
You can throw in the rise of the emerging market middle class, the
scarcity of essential natural resources, the shift from paper assets to hard
assets, a demographic investing, the rise of technology and how to invest
around deflation and then inflation. And of course, there is a constant
mixing and matching of multiple trends going on at the same time - some
contradict each other, some reinforce each other. It all makes our life
The procreation trade, this is the big driver. This is what makes
economies grow over the long term. This is what moves the markets. It’s
a trend you can absolutely rely on. It's been going on for millionaires. I
think the safest bet you will ever make is the willingness of the human
race to procreate. The only problem is that it has entered its exponential
growth base and that is causing huge disruptions in all financial markets
and there’s really nothing you can do to stop this avoiding except for
major plague or a nuclear war.
To tell you why this is important, let’s review who The Reverend Thomas
Malthus was. He was a Scottish clergyman who was the father of
demography. He came up with the concept that food supplies grow in a
linear fashion while populations grow exponentially. His conclusion was
that utopia is unattainable because resource shortages will ultimately
bring famine, disease, and wars. His solution was: don’t procreate too
much; engage in virtuous behavior. My solution is buy hard assets.
There are some huge population changes taking place over the next 40
years which the markets are anticipating right now. The world will add
two billion people in the next 40 years and more than half of that increase
will be in Islamic countries and that is one of the reasons why we are
seeing such instability and turmoil in the Middle East right now. The
Islamic population will grow from one to two billion, add up a 9 billion
total and that means that the war against terrorism will not end in four
years as Pentagon is budgeting for because most of the growth is going to
be in the lowest income Islamic countries. Population will level off in
Latin America, Africa, and China. China in particular has a problem with
their one child policy which they have been pursuing for 30 years and has
cut the growth of their population by 400 million and will bring major
problems home to roost by 2020.
Transcribed by: email@example.com Page 2 of 14
Population is shrinking in Japan and it’s leveling off in Europe. The US
population will level off at 400 million in 2050 from the current 300
million. That is why the US has a big economic advantage over Europe,
our immigration adds 1% a year to our GDP growth. That is 1% that
Europe doesn’t get. Why people want to end immigration, I don’t know.
But looking at the whole world, it is adding 175,000 new customers a
day. And these are not my numbers, these are from the CIA fact book
and they ought to know.
Let’s tell you why demographics is important in the investing world and
this is where we introduce the concept of population pyramids and what
this does. I have a population pyramid for India right here and it shows
the percentage of population at each age group. So you see in India, we
have less than 10% of the population male and female whereas we have
55% of the population between zero and four. This is a great population
pyramid to invest in because what this means is you have an ever rising
larger number of customers as you go from generation to generation.
Each half decade or five years of age group is pursued by an ever larger
number of workers, hence customers make consumers. And this is a
great firm way to have for continued high economic growth. Rising
populations create more consumers whereas you have very few people at
the top end of the curve and the high age groups that have to be supported
with social services or other benefits.
So the bottom line is high GDP growth, small budget deficits and a strong
currency for countries that exhibit this kind of population pyramid. By
the way, this is exactly what America's population pyramid looked like
110 years ago in 1900. And you can see how the India ETF has done in
the last couple of years in response to that population pyramid. This is
the (inaudible) India ETF, it got as low as $9 two years ago, the bond
crashed, it reached a high of $26. So that is nearly 300% rise in two years
during which time our own market the S&P500 was up 100%. So this is
how a higher economic growth rates lead to a higher stock markets.
America doesn’t look so hot today. This is our population pyramid today.
If you notice, we have a large number of people over 80 who will be a
drain on the economy demanding healthcare social services, social
security and so on. And you don't have larger numbers of young people
pursuing smaller numbers of old people. Each generation is pretty much
the same size and what you have here is an aging population, a falling
birth rate which brings a slower growth in GDP, growing demand for
social services, rising budget deficits and a weak currency. By the way,
Transcribed by: firstname.lastname@example.org Page 3 of 14
all of this population data is coming from the US Census Bureau. But at
least, we are not Japan which has the world’s worst population pyramid
and the grimmest demographic outlook out there. This shows the
population pyramid in Japan in 1950, it’s a great pyramid and that
heralded the beginning of exponential growth in the Japanese economy.
By 2007, it’s not looking like a pyramid anymore. It’s sort of looking
like a bloated torpedo and the projection for 2050 is that you have an
inverse pyramid. Huge numbers of old people will have to be supported
by small number of workers. By 2030, Japan will have only two workers
for every retiree, bringing no GDP growth, huge demand for social
services, enormous budget deficits and a collapsing currency.
Now the conclusion that you want to short the yen through the ETF's like
the YCS, you want to short Japanese government bonds and the Japanese
stock market. And this is the conclusion of the Japanese Ministry of
Health and Welfare.
To show you what happens when a country transitions from a high
growth population make up to a no growth, to a negative growth make
up. Take a look at the Nikkei now. We started to make that switch from
the healthy pyramid to the unhealthy one right around here 1990 when the
Nikkei peaked at 39,000. I was there when they rang the bell that day
hitting the all time high during the holidays in Tokyo and this has not
been a happy market to be in since then. This shows that we are still in
the downtrend and could go lower. When you have a non-functioning
economy, you get a non-functioning stock market. This is something to
stay away from or short the rallies. Of course the great shorts were when
the history was up here but you could make a regular living every two
years shortening the Nikkei tops like this.
Rise of the emerging market middle class is going to be a major driver of
corporate earnings for decades to come. In 1980, the global middle class
was 500 million people strong. Today, it’s 900 million and we are on our
way to two billion with India, China, and Latin America and other
emerging markets being the largest source of growth. In 1980, 35% of
US exports went to emerging markets. In 2010, that number rose to 54%
and that will rise to 65% in the next 10 years. So this shows you why the
emerging market of the middle class is important. Approximately, 90%
of world GDP growth for the next 10 years will be in emerging markets.
This middle class has an ever rising purchasing power. During 1975,
China's per capita income rose from $100 to $3,000 a year while the US
Transcribed by: email@example.com Page 4 of 14
per capita GDP has been going down for the last 10 years, from $50,000
down to $46,000 a year.
South Korean wages over this 35-year period rose from 5% of US wages
to 65%. These people have a lot more money to spend. They make great
customers. And this is one of the reasons why we had a job drain
overseas because foreign labor is so cheap. That is going to be coming to
an end in the future as the US becomes more cost competitive with
So the question arises now, what kind of asset should we invest in to take
advantage of these major trends in the world economy? So do we want to
invest in paper assets or hard assets? Let’s take a look at the two assets
classes. Paper assets, which include stocks, bonds, derivatives, loans,
promissory notes, and so on; the potential supply is infinite. All you have
to do is push a button to turn on a printing press and you have an
unlimited supply. You have several countries including the US and
Europe which are competing to print as much money as possible in a race
to the bottom. This is creating a risk of inflation down the road. We
don’t have it today unless you are trying to buy food or energy or college
education but down the road, the huge money supply that is being created
now will feed into higher inflation rates. And both political parties in the
United States are rushing to inflate as much as possible so they can get
Let’s look at the biggest paper asset of all and that is the US dollar. This
is a 200-year chart for the US dollar in terms of purchasing power parity
and you can say this has not been a great asset to be in over the long term.
We’ve kind of held our own only for the first 100 years. You know, the
value of the dollar fell sharply every time we had a war. There's a big
decline during civil war, this is World War I and then the real collapse
started after the US went off the Gold standard in 1933 when Franklin
Roosevelt banned gold ownership and then Richard Nixon ended it
completely in 1971. There’s been a downward spiral ever since. So this
is not a great store of value because government can make money
anytime it wants.
The one caveat I will throw in here is that technology is the one paper
asset which will do well over the long term. This is the exception to the
rule. Technology stocks are one of the few areas where earnings growth
is so high that it outweighs all the other negatives of paper assets. These
are companies that make stuff that people want to buy. They are foreign
Transcribed by: firstname.lastname@example.org Page 5 of 14
companies with 60% to 80 % of their sales outside the US and it’s a
perfect way to serve the technology wave. So you have continuous
innovation creating new products which have a huge tide of earnings
which will continue for many years as long as we keep innovating.
And of course, the 800 pound gorilla in the technology area is Apple. I
put out a report last year when Apple was trading around 250 saying that
Apple would go to a 1000. Everyone said I was crazy; we got up to 360
the beginning of this year and it’s not looking so crazy after all. Since the
Macro Millionaire program started in November, Apple stock is up 21%.
I think we keep going up for the long term; short term is overbought. I’d
like to do a major dip if you can get around the 200-day moving average
down here, that would be great. So the one paper asset I do like is the
Let’s review hard assets. There are huge supply-demand bottlenecks in
the entire hard asset space. It takes five years to bring product to the
market, sometimes 10 years to develop a major mind and get all the
permits. They have enormous capital requirements. These minds cost
billions of dollars to develop. There are shortages of equipment to
develop those minds. There is shortage of engineers when all the great
minds of American universities went off to work for hedge funds on Wall
Street, it left a shortage of engineers to develop and operate minds or
other hard assets. The financial crisis created a two year bubble in the
investment pipeline for hard assets and that is coming back to haunt us
now with much higher supply shortages and higher prices.
Environmental approvals can take forever in the hard asset area. Even in
California, one of the friendliest green energy states in the country, it
takes forever to get -- many years to get approvals to build simple things
like solar plants.
The infrastructural requirements are enormous. They require roads,
pipelines, water, power, electricity, all hard to come by. And the entire
hard asset space suffered from 25 years of under investment from 1980 to
2005 when the prices of these commodities were going down. So the
chickens are coming home to roost in on their investment. That means
higher prices. So the bottom line is that the linear growth has slowed
down so much that it can’t meet the exponential demand that is arising.
Let’s see how this actually works out. This is a chart of the world
population from 3000 BC to 2050 AD. And you can see 5000 years ago,
the population of the world during ancient Egypt was only 10 million
Transcribed by: email@example.com Page 6 of 14
people. Basically, it was a suburb of Shanghai, that’s how small it was.
On a relative basis, (inaudible) all the way to the Roman Empire slowly
started to rise and then when industrialization began in 1825, the human
population took off like crazy because of the greater production of food.
So we know that hard assets supplies grow in a linear fashion, the human
population is growing exponentially. This is not good for commodity
supplies. What does this mean for prices? It means a chronic hard asset
shortage is developing and has become particularly severe since 2005.
We have had resource shortages in the past, usually during wars. World
War II where huge shortages of resources, the first oil crisis saw
shortages, and since 2002 we have seen steadily rising prices crisis
creating even greater shortages. So it seems like hard assets are the place
to invest for the long term.
Let’s review what hard assets include and those are precious metals -
gold, silver, platinum; commodity producing currencies like the
Australian and Canadian Dollars, coal energy qualifies which involves
oil, gas, coal, natural gas, uranium, raw metals like copper, iron, ore, rare
earths, titanium, zinc, and nickel. Food is a hard asset which is becoming
increasingly scarce so you want to invest in corn, wheat, soybeans,
fertilizer companies, and seed companies.
Real Estates - agricultural land has doubled in the past two years in parts
of the US and it’s going up even faster in emerging markets. Of course
emerging market, commercial real estate is doing well because you have
the tail wind of strong economies and strong currencies losing value of
those assets. You also want to look at commodity producing ETFs.
Stock markets of Russia, Australia, and Canada are great proxies for hard
Gold, let’s look at Gold, first of all. Peak gold is upon us, it is
anticipating a return of high inflation. The cost of production of Gold is
rising. Inflation in the US is now about 2.5% but the cost of producing
gold is rising 15% a year because the miners are being forced to pursue
less and less productive mines. The number of mines is shrinking.
Barrick Gold is mining gold at 15,000 feet in the Andes not because they
like the scenery. It’s the only place they can find gold and it is one of the
most productive mines in the world. They have huge problems producing
gold there with water freezing, people unable to work because of the
shortage of air and so on.
Transcribed by: firstname.lastname@example.org Page 7 of 14
During the last decade EC central banks sold off the gold holdings of the
old individual central banks in Europe that has ended. And EC, if
anything, is now a buyer of gold. Emerging markets central banks are
buying gold like crazy. You have India and China in the market all the
time bidding against each other to increase their reserves. And the rising
emerging market middle class has also become a huge buyer of gold
jewelry at the individual level. These countries never had much of a
history of paper money, they have a cultural affinity to gold/silver coins.
Now that they have money to spend, that is when they have a much
bigger impact on the price of gold. So the bottom line here is limited
supply at the small market against very sharply rising demand. Since
Macro Millionaire’s target in November, gold is up 9%. It hit an all time
high a couple of days ago. It’s overbought now but for the long term this
is placed (inaudible). You can see in the last correction in January, we
never even got down to the 200-day moving average.
Other precious metals – silver, platinum, palladium - these have much
more of an industrial flavor good to have when you have recovering
economies which we’re having now. Platinum and palladium are placed
in the car industry which is also experiencing a short recovery. Silver up
44% since Macro Millionaire first recommended it in November. That is
not a bad return. My long term target for that is $50 an ounce but we may
see much higher.
Energy, world is running out of energy. As we all know, peak oil is five
years off. The Middle East instability is exacerbating that. The main
driver is emerging market demand, particularly China. And as the dollars
weakens people are turning to oil as a dollar proxy, a place to store value.
Oil has a 150-year head start in infrastructure, construction, so we are not
going off oil anytime soon no matter how it’s running really poor into our
Coal is another good energy area to invest. The coal companies have
been great performers for the last couple of years. Fifty percent of the US
(audio disturbance) and trade is unlikely to happen in our lifetime given
the political mix in Washington DC and exports to emerging markets
especially China are rising. Those railroads that keep me awake at night
are shipping coal from Wyoming through to San Francisco and Oakland
on to ships which go straight to China.
Uranium is another great energy source to invest in. We are seeing the
rebirth of the nuclear industry. China is building 100 nuclear power
Transcribed by: email@example.com Page 8 of 14
plants over the next 10 years. Uranium places are really doing really well
right now and will continue to do so.
Natural gas, I want to avoid because of the discovery of 100 year supply.
It seems there are natural gases everywhere now that we have the new
technology to explore them.
Oil, since Macro Millionaire started is up 27%. Most of that is in the last
month. I think you can short term were bought, long term I’m looking for
(audio disturbance) to $200. This is a space you want to stay in for the
Other raw materials: iron, ore, copper, rare earths. Rare earths, we had a
400% move last year. We got in at the very bottom of that move. People
were buying coal options out of the money for a buck which rose to $200.
So (audio disturbance) good returns in that area. Aluminum, lumber,
zinc, nickel, other raw materials which we expect will continue to
Food is another hard asset which you need to invest in. Global stockpiles
of food are 20 year lows. We need another green revolution. Without
one, a global famine will ensue. Forty percent of the wheat producing
areas in the world are in drought now. Corn, wheat, soybeans, and
fertilizers, have been great investments in the past year, some of them
rising up to more than a 100%. I think sugar is up to close to 200% over
the last year. Coffee is up huge. Part of this is being caused by the rising
quality of food demanded by emerging populations especially China.
More disposable savings means eating more and eating better quality
food. And if you move from eating grain, say rice, including beef, it
requires 16 pound of grain to feed to create one pound of beef. So you
can see the hockey stick effects on demand for food going forward.
Corn, since Macro Millionaire started, up 20%. It’s been a great place to
be. I’ve gotten people into this very early. It has worked well and will
continue to do so.
Commodity producing currencies. An indirect way to play hard assets is
you buy the currencies of countries which are major hard asset producers.
The big ones here are Australia and Canada. The Australian dollar has
risen 5% since Macro Millionaire started back in November and
Australian commodity producing stock markets are another indirect play
into the hard assets base. Since November, the Australian stock market
has risen 8%.
Transcribed by: firstname.lastname@example.org Page 9 of 14
Real Estate. This is a hard asset that you don't want to own. It’s going to
be dead money for the next 10 years. We have massive supply meeting
limited financing, the end of federal subsidized financing is upon us with
the de facto bankruptcy of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. I project we
earn on real estate similar to what we saw from 1929 to 1955. In other
words, don’t expect a bull market in real estate until 2030 and the reason
why I am so negative is because of one person and that is Kathleen
Casey- Kirschling. Who is this person, you may ask. I’ll give you a hint,
her birthday is January 1, 1946, one second after midnight. She is the
first baby boomer and she reached retirement age one second after
midnight in January this year. She did in fact take early retirement. She
is 63. This is her getting her check from the head of the Social Security
Administration. That’s all nice but it is extremely bad news for the rest
of us because it has created a silver tsunami of retirees. Eighty million
baby boomers were born between 1946 and 1954. Ten thousand day are
now retiring which means social security turns cash flow negative by
2017. There are forecasts out there that if it goes negative sooner than
that, social security goes out of cash by 2041. It’s probably going to
happen a lot sooner than that. And the big problem in this whole set up is
that 80 million baby boomers are only followed by 65 million Gen-Xer's.
That means there are just not enough people left to buy the retiring baby
boomers’ houses. Don’t count on selling your houses to your kids,
especially if they are still living in the basement. Where do retirees live?
They downsize. They downsize from McMansions to retirement condos
to assisted living facilities which means going from 2500 square feet to
1000 square feet to 100 square feet. Multiply it by 80 million, that comes
to 4.3 billion square feet of housing on the market every year for the next
22 years. That is the equivalent of 430 world trade centers per year. That
is a lot of real estates for sale. Currently, there are roughly 20 million
houses for sale if we use the broader definitions of homes for sale. So
that means we have 26 million homes on the market now versus 4.9
million worth of homes in actual demand. That means there is five years’
worth of inventory out there. Some forecast goes as high as 10 years.
One out of every five American home is for sale or about to hit the
How many homes do boomers own? Well let me tell you who’s not
buying homes right now. There are 35 million unemployed using the
broader definition of unemployment including those whose benefits have
expired and discouraged workers. There are 35 million existing
homeowners who have negative home equity so they are not going to be
Transcribed by: email@example.com Page 10 of 14
buying homes anytime soon because they can't sell their houses unless
they want to send in the keys to the bank to avoid the check that’s going
to be due. That is 70 million missing buyers out of a total US home
market of 140 million residences. That is a lot of missing buyers. Best
case, we get a long grind sideways in home prices for another decade.
Worst case, we drop another 20% triggering a secondary banking crisis.
And if you look at the Case-Shiller Home Price Index information, this
kind of looks like the worst case scenario is coming. That looks like a
down tip. This is the most recent month's data and I don’t see we are
going up for the rise anytime soon. It’s more likely that we continue
down here. We are certainly seeing this already in a lot of local markets
especially in the worst hit ones in Nevada Arizona and Florida.
So trading with the mad hedge fund trader, the first and foremost thing to
keep in mind is that buy and hold is dead, you have to trade to survive.
We have a long term mile of portfolio which we update constantly with
reports explaining every change. We also keep a short term trading
portfolio, which as of yesterday was up 17.5% over a four-month period.
This is a real time trading book with Email alerts updating you on every
change. And of course, we slog away with a never ending series of
reports, continuing education with our daily newsletter giving the long
term trends that affect the global markets across all asset classes. We also
include continuous video updates with Question and Answer periods. I
also have on hedge fund radio live interviews with major hedge fund
industry figures which have a huge follow up.
On top of all these, I also give strategy luncheons in major cities like New
York, London, Paris, Phoenix, San Francisco, Chicago, Geneva, and
Milan. These are the venues we have on schedule for the next five
months. So this is a broad comprehensive product that will let you
manage your assets, educate you and bring you superior returns.
So that’s it for today and I have a few extra minutes so I’m going to take
some questions here. Let’s see if I can read these. Yes there will be an
increase in food-related illnesses. Obesity is a rising epidemic in China
and that will lead to greater demand for health care services in emerging
markets. That has got to be a fantastic market to be in.
My view on UK housing: you have been so slaughtered by a weak
economy in the UK. I don’t see much of a recovery anytime soon and
your demographic picture is even worse than America’s. I think you'd be
better off investing on hard assets than real estate.
Transcribed by: firstname.lastname@example.org Page 11 of 14
Going forward, we will try to present as many alternatives as possible for
each individual investment with ETF, outright stock or options and
futures alternatives. Some people can use some instruments, others can’t.
Thoughts on (inaudible) and mosaic, buy the dips long term. Those are
great stock s but I would wait for a generalized equity sell-off before
increasing your equity position which may be upon us. Hard hit here but
just kind of bouncing along at the bottom here. What I don’t like about
the market these days is that we are getting a lot more volume on the
down days than on the up days. That means the smart money is leaving,
getting ready for either sideways or a down market. I've been predicting
this for the past months.
End of QE2 happens on June 30th, I think QE2's main purpose so far is to
prevent a more serious crash of the bond market. In QE2, that crash may
be (inaudible). So, there may be an opportunity to make more money on
The Euro, no, we have not hit our stop-loss on the Euro. On the FXC, I
had a stop-loss at 140. We have not traded above that. Until we do, I am
keeping my short position. In fact, there is a decent chance that we may
have hit a peak this week and now you want to run the short after this has
caused so much pain for the last month.
Big banks, I don’t see them go short term. There has been a trade there
for the last three months which we caught with the Bank of America trade
in December. I made a lot of money on that but long term, I'm not a huge
fan of banks because there are so many unrealized losses still on their
books and there has yet to be a full disclosure of the true losses that the
banks still have.
No chance for QE3. I will be lucky to get to the end of QE2. There’s
been a lot of political pressure to get the fed to stop QE2. I think they’ll
(inaudible) and then not have a QE3. And then, if you look at the stock
market at this level which has doubled in two years, you will realize there
is no need for a Q3. QE2, most of the money ended up going into gold,
silver commodities and oil anyway so it isn’t really achieving everything
the fed wants it to do.
I’m a big believer in PIMCO’s and the New Normal. Go to their website,
the research is free. Bill Gross is a genius, follow whenever I can.
Transcribed by: email@example.com Page 12 of 14
Stop-loss on the VIX, I would say in the (inaudible).
Oil, short term down. Yes, I think oil has shot its rod for the time being.
Twenty seven percent move in four weeks is a lot given that we’ve only
lost a million barrels a day out of it to OPEC. High prices are being
driven more by fear than actual supply-demand, so not a bad place to put
on some shorts here on the USO.
I’m still on the SPY put spread, didn’t get stop down on that and that may
come good in the near future. First of all, I like long term but again, I’m
avoiding stocks generally right now because I think they’ve had a great
run of getting expensive. You could not be right on your individual pick
but as the main market goes against you, you’ll lose money.
Yes I’m still expecting a short term sell-off unless we get a complete
collapse in oil.
Hurry up and wait is exactly what we are doing right now because if you
joined recently Macro Millionaire, you joined the market top. So my job
is to tell you to do nothing at market top. Wait for a turn, then we’ll get
some short plays; wait longer then we will get long plays. Sometimes
preventing people from losing money is much more valuable than
showing them how to make money. You lose all your capital pursuing
marginal high risk trades. You won't have any money left to take
advantage of the high quality, high return low risk trades.
If a sell-off occurs, what happens in the end? I think it goes down but
I’ve been long on it like everybody else. At least it’s not costing us
money, it’s still trading around our cost. I think long term outlook for
Japan sucks, I’m going to stick with it while I'm keeping my stop-loss at
So while things are quite where there are not a lot of attractive trades to
do, the best thing to do is study, read those books. Go to my training
school, buy these books. You can get them on Amazon for $3 or $4 or $5
each. Invest in yourself right now is the best investment you can do.
Invest in yourself, become a better trader, learn more about these markets,
make a list of things to do. When conditions present themselves and
when we get a major crash or major rally, you are not sitting around
twiddling your thumbs thinking what should I do now? You pull the
trigger, you know what to do. And you do it with confidence because
you have done the research and that’s where the big money is made,
Transcribed by: firstname.lastname@example.org Page 13 of 14
making the big bucks with confidence because you did the hard work.
This is not a get-rich-quick scheme, this is not a route to easy riches. The
harder you work at this, the money you’ll make. It’s really very simple.
Hard work in - money out. That’s the key to successful investment.
So that is pretty much it for today’s 45 minutes. So, I will sign off for
today. I’ll talk to you next week. We'll do our regular portfolio update.
Hopefully we’ll have happier things to report.
Thank you all for your support. Love all the positive feedback I get from
you guys. I work my butt off 16 hours a day to make this thing happen
and it’s nice getting the encouragement from you. So thank you very
This is John Thomas signing off for Macro Millionaire. Have a good
morning and good trading!
[End of Video]
Transcribed by: email@example.com Page 14 of 14