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									       The Implications
of a Pandemic Flu Outbreak
        On Businesses
   in the Global Economy

          Gayle Jacobs
   Global PRC Associates, LLC
• A Flu Pandemic as a Political Risk
• Effects of a Pandemic on the Global Economy
• Impacts on Companies in West Michigan
• What Are Other Businesses Doing?
  – Case Study: The Intel Corporation

• Looking Ahead: The Next Steps
A Flu Pandemic and Political Risk

• Background on Political Risk
• Businesses face risk on political, economic and
  sociological levels
   • Present clashes in Lebanon disrupting UPS shipments
   • Terrorism and kidnapping on BP-Shell oil pipelines in Nigeria
   • SARS outbreak in 2003
A transnational health pandemic would have far greater
reach and impact on the global economy than any
one war, embargo or natural disaster.
   Effects on the Global Economy

The flow of goods and services thrives with fluid
borders. It is greatly impacted by variables such
as market demand, logistics networks, the
international banking system, technology and at
the root of it all, people.

     What does this mean for your business?
                                  Critical Factors
                                                                       Major Swings in Demand
  Workforce Shortages                        Border Restrictions
                                                                       (Ex: Medical Equipment
      of 30-40%                           Affecting Critical Imports
                                                                       Sales, Consumer Goods)
                                          Or Sales/Exports Overseas

              Mfg Plants
               Factories     Retail
 Logistics:   Call Centers Operations,
 Trucking,                   Stores
UPS, FedEx

                                           Dramatic Changes to
                                         Your Business Operations
   The Domino Effect

                                                  Related          Ripple effect
                         A supply shortage
                                                   goods          is felt in other
                        causes a disruption
                                                 cannot be       industries, and
                           to production
 Schools close and                               produced         it compounds
    parents can no
  longer go to work
(at electric company,    Families lose ability   Consumers          Businesses
     factory, etc.)     to earn income when      cannot pay          unable to
                          wage earners stay        bills for          collect
                          home due to child      utilities and       revenues
                         care, fear or illness   other goods          to pay
   Michigan‟s Role in International Trade:
         $37 billion in 2005 Exports
                                                                                  Michigan‟s Top 15
                                                                                   Export Markets
                                                                                 World Total: $37,584,052
                                                                                 Partner          Amount
                                                                                 Canada           22,633,157
                                                                                 Mexico           4,193,399
                                                                                 Japan            1,070,898
                                                                                 Germany          1,056,962
                                                                                 UK               715,931
                                                                                 China            697,860
                                                                                 Austria          591,512
                                                                                 France           478,730
                                                                                 South Korea      464,907
                                                                                 Belgium          442,777
                                                                                 Brazil           404,462

        …                                                                        Saudi Arabia     396,193
                                                                                 Netherlands      385,685
        …                                                                        Australia        369,631
        …                                                                        Venezuela        357,334
                                                                                      (In Thousands of USD)
Source: The Office of Trade and Industry Information (OTII), Manufacturing and
Services, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce.
  What Other Businesses Are Doing
  A Case Study: Intel Corporation

Intel Corporation, the world leader in silicon
innovation, has nearly 100,000 employees in 199
countries. Their 2005 revenues were $38.8 Billion.

After the SARS outbreak in 2003 which cost the
lives of several of their colleagues in Asia, they aren’t
taking any chances with an Avian Flu Pandemic Threat.
               A Case Study:
            The Intel Corporation
• Design Responses Around Each Level of the 6-phase
  Threat Scale
• Organize Cross-Functional teams (Preparedness,
  Regional Response, Travel, Threat Assessment,
  Corporate Emergency Operations Center)
• Start Hygiene Campaign For the Work Place Including
  Educational Materials and Hand Sanitizer Pumps
• Establish Corporate Communication Lines (especially
  for expatriates) and a Medical Triage Contact Number
• Create System to Track Cases of Illness and Severity
The WHO Global Influenza Scale

 Source: World Health Organization
                                A Case Study:
                             The Intel Corporation
Phase 3                               Phase 4                       Phase 5                       Phase 6
Current                                                                 Additional Actions
• Activate Management Review          • Start 2X daily building     • Employee/contractor         • Aggressive
Committee/ Task Force Planning        disinfection                  temperature screening at      communications and
Team/ Regional Teams                  • Implement phone-based       point of entry (geo           updates
• Designate a Centralized             triage & medical case         specific)                     •Distribute self-care
Communications Coordinator            management for                • Additional disinfection     pandemic information to
• Promotional Campaign for Good       symptom review &              procedures for clean-         employees
Hygiene practices                     contact tracing               rooms & equipment
      – Install hand gel dispensers   • Employee and                • Distribute N95
      – Ensure adequate supply of     contractor self-screening     respirators
      N95 respirators for             tool distribution in          • Communicate protocols
      employees                       affected areas                for working from home
• Assist medical personnel to get     • Restrict travel – General   • Review procedure for
Tamiflu “prescription” pre-written    Manager sign-off              closing facilities if cases
[Intel is not stockpiling             required in both              occur in work
medication]                           geographies (going to and     environment
                                      coming from)                  •Additional cleaning of
• Order N95 Respirators
                                      •Ensure Medical               gowns/smocks in
•Encourage regular flu vaccines       Evacuation Protocols          factories
• Promote additional food safety      Understood
practices                             •Implement 1 800-Hot-
• Stockpile disinfectants and         Line / other emergency
review cleaning protocols             communication
• Control bird roosting areas at      procedures
                                            A Case Study:
                                         The Intel Corporation
  Track and Manage Any Cases In a Case Management System

Reproduced with permission of the Intel Corporation, Occupational Health 2006
                                            A Case Study:
                                         The Intel Corporation
    Point of Entry Temperature Screening

Reproduced with permission of the Intel Corporation, Occupational Health 2006
                  A Case Study:
               The Intel Corporation
Above all, communicate with your work force as much as
   •   Roles, Responsibilities and Goals for All Involved
   •   Company Approach Toward Managing the Threat
   •   Employee Instructions At Each Phase on the Threat Scale
   •   Any Situational Updates
   •   Trigger Points
   •   Return Policy for Expatriates Overseas
   •   How To Stay In Touch Once Homebound or Ill
   •   Organizational Contact List
   •   Guiding Principles Throughout All Phases (next slide)
                A Case Study:
             The Intel Corporation
Guiding Principles for Intel’s Pandemic Response:
• We promote a healthy work environment
• We treat people with dignity and respect through
  communication and transparency
• We will minimize the spread of infection by partnering
  with local governments and public health organizations,
  such as WHO and CDC
• We will implement a staggered deployment strategy
  based on risk and need at each location/geography
• We will maintain business continuity by developing
  appropriate levels of coordination and contingency
Looking Ahead: The Next Steps
 Utilize tools and resources from this summit
 Establish a pandemic flu team
     First goal: conduct an audit of implications for company
     Challenge: report findings to top leadership within 2 weeks
     Set measurable goals and constantly monitor progress, get buy-in from
     corporate level management to ensure involvement
 Tier employees into layers most and least critical to operations; cross train
 Tier 2 and 3 staff
 Hold leaders accountable for progress and compliance
 Examine supplier and other external relationships and identify alternatives and
 Identify where your business is most vulnerable and back up the weak points
 (e.g. “just in time” inventory)
Looking Ahead: The Next Steps

You‟ve heard the experts – the next pandemic
       is not a matter of „if‟, but „when.‟

       You have a lot of work to do!
   Looking Ahead: The Next Steps
Consider The Following:
On the morning of September 11, 2001 approximately 19,000 employees were working
in World Trade Center Towers 1 & 2 and 58,000 people in the entire World Trade
Center complex. Following the plane impacts, Tower 1 stood for 103 minutes and Tower
2 stood for only 56 minutes.
During that brief time, nearly 17,000 employees evacuated safely. Casualties among
building occupants numbered 2,270 (not including the 403 first responder and 157 plane
passengers). Roughly 88% survived a mass exodus from two of
the tallest structures in the world.

The Explanation:
Consistent and regular fire drills resulted in an
instinctive and orderly evacuation despite conflicting
instructions and limited exit routes. WTC disaster
training saved thousands of lives that day and is one
of the untold success stories of that unforgettable day.
Thank You and Good Luck!
 For additional copies of this presentation
 Or the “Looking Ahead” checklist contact:

                Gayle Jacobs
                (703) 585-7647

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