survey+of+armenian+public+opinion by mestisa

VIEWS: 37 PAGES: 64

									Armenia National Voter Study
May 2006

International Republican Institute, Baltic Surveys Ltd. / The Gallup Organization, Armenian Sociological Association

with funding from the
United States Agency for International Development

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IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

INFORMATION ABOUT THE SURVEY
 

 



This national representative survey was carried out from April 30 to May 7, 2006. 1200 Armenian residents (voters) aged 18 years and over were interviewed face-to-face. The margin of error does not exceed 3%. The survey was carried out on behalf of IRI. It was funded by the United States Agency for International Development. The study was designed, coordinated and analyzed by The Gallup Organization (Dr. R.Alisauskiene). The fieldwork was carried out by Armenian Sociological Association (ASA).

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IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

MOOD OF THE COUNTRY

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IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Mood of the country: 55% of Armenians think that the country is on the wrong track while 32% think the country is going in the right direction.
Do you think that things in Armenia are going in the....
Right direction Wrong direction Don't know, no answer

32

55

13

0

20

40

60

80

100

4
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Mood of the Country: 42% of Armenians see improvement in the country’s economy while 23% think it is declining
Over the last 3 months, the economic situation in Armenia has ...
Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know, no answer

4

38

33

13

10

2

0

20

40

60

80

100

5
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Mood of the country: 23% of Armenians say their household’s financial situation has improved while 28% say it has declined
Over the last 3 months, the financial situation of your household has ...
Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know, no answer

2

21

48

17

11

1

0

20

40

60

80

100
6

IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA

ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Mood of the country: 37% of Armenians are satisfied with the development of democracy while 58% are not
How satisfied are you with the way democracy is developing in Armenia?
Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied DK/NA

3

34

24

34

5

0

20

40

60

80

100

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IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Mood of the country: Overall majority of Armenians think that it will take a long time for things to get better in the country
Do you believe that things will get better in a short time or it will take a long time to get better in the country?
Short time Long time Not sure/refused

13

79

8

0

20

40

60

80
8

100

IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA

ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Mood of the Country: Expectations

100 90 80 70 60

3

5 6 6

No answer

Total disbelief in any improvement Insecurity, fear for future

24

Apathy

50 40 40 30 20 10 0 16
Hope that the future will be somewhat better Believe that the future will be definitely better Not much hope for the future

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IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Mood of the Country

Optimism

Neutral

Pessimism

56

30

11

0

20

40

60

80

100
10

IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA

ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Attitude towards the way things are developing in Armenia over the last year became:
60 57

50

40

30 24 20 17

10 2 0

More optimistic

Stayed the same

More pessimistic

DK/NA
11

IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA

ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

ISSUES

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IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Most important issues Armenia is facing (%)
Unemployment Problem of Nagorno Karabakh Social-economic situation Development of the economy, industry Corruption Democracy, respect of human rights Migration Foreign policy Recognition of genocide Other DK/NA

31 17 14 12 6 5 3 3 2 2 4 5 6 6 6 8 13 11 25 26 26

43

First mention All mentions

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IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Most important issue towns/villages in Armenia are facing (%)
Unemployment Development of economy/industry/agriculture Housing, communal services Sanitation Transport, road conditions Low salaries, pensions Illegal construction Ecology Corruption Other DK/NA

22 12 10 9 8 8 6 5 4 7 6 8 9 9 15 10 13 18 16 14 17

32

First mention All mentions

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IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Most important issue households in Armenia are facing (%)
Social-economic situation Unemployment Housing, communal services Education Healthcare Low incomes Other DK/NA

42 52 21 7 4 3 3 6 9 8 8
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ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

28

14

7 6

First mention All mentions
14

IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA

Issues


 

On the personal/household level, social issues are most pressing. On the community level, unemployment is the most important problem. On the national level, social problems and territorial

integrity/security issues are most important.

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IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Fear the Most (%)
Nagorno-Karabakh Slow development of economy Migration Unemployment Social-economic situation Natural disasters Corruption None Other DK/NA

52 7 7 4 3 2 1 1 1 9 14 14
17

58

16 13

7 7

4 4

First mention All mentions
17

IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA

ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Fears of the People


The biggest fears are related to instability/security: (territorial integrity of the country, war) and social instability (unemployment, economic problems).

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IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

POLITICS

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IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Interest in Politics (%)
Low interest Medium interest High interest DK/NA

May 2006

35

27

37

1

0

20

40

60

80

100
20

IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA

ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

What is the primary thing the Armenian government should do to attract the support of the majority of the Armenian population? (%)
To fulfill promises Create jobs Increase salaries, pensions Develop economy To carry out fair elections To fight corruption To return deposits To improve sanitary conditions Other DK/NA

24 23 14 10 79 6 35 12 5 9 9 9 13 23 23

36 39

First mentioned All mentioned

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IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Do you plan to vote in the next Parliamentary elections?

Definitely no 10%

Have not decided yet 8%

DK/NA 1% Definitely yes 45%

Probably no 9%

Probably yes 27%
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IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Why do you plan to vote ? (N=860, planning to vote, %)

70 61 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
It's my duty I care about Party / candidate I care about a I enjoy voting Not to give a particular on an election chance for issue day fraud Other

18 9 5 4 3

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IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Why do you plan not to vote ? (N=228, not planning to vote, % )
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
I am not My vote does I do not I don’t have interested in not change believe that time to go to politics anything elections will the polls be fair I don't like any party or candidate I don't have enough information about parties and candidates Other DK/NA

30 14

35

12 3 1 1 4

24
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Characteristics/Attributes Most Important in Parliamentary Candidate (%)
Caring, kind

34 21 14 8 5 5 3 2

47

Honest

32 24

Educated

Democratic

10 10

Moral, modest

Professional

8 8

Hard-working

First mention All mentions

Other

3 10 11
25
ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

DK/NA

IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA

When considering which party to vote for, what is more important?

None No answer 4% 5%

The Party is more important 32%

The Leader is more important 59%

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IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

All other things being equal, who would you vote for?

Does not matter 10%

No answer 3%

More active, younger candidate 32%

More experienced, older candidate 55%

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IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

All other things being equal, who would you vote for?

No answer 3% Does not matter 29%

Female 7%

Male 61%

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IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Most liked features of Armenian politicians or parties (%)
Determination, consistency Truthworthiness, objectivity

18

15

Democratic orientation

7 5

Justice

Devotion

4

None

29

Other

4

DK/NA

18
29

IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA

ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Most disliked features of Armenian politicians or parties (%)

Conflicts

19 15 15 13 9 6 3 5 17
30

Corruption

Dishonesty

Arrogance

Indifference

Stubbornness

Other

None

DK/NA

IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA

ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Major mistakes and failures of Armenian authorities over the last year (%)
Not preventing the rise of prices Ignoring laws 12
16

14
21

Privatization Lack of attention to people Lack of fight against corruption Not returning deposits Falsification of referendum Other 3
8

12

15

6
10

First mention All mentioned

3
4

3
3

11
15

DK/NA
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

37
37

31

The wrongdoing and corruption of political leaders and authorities is …(%)
100 90 80 70 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
32
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Very serious problem Rather serious problem Not very serious problem Not a problem at all DK/NA

25

3

1

1

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

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IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Evaluation of Relations With…
Good Bad Neither good, nor bad DK/NA

Russia

95

4 1 0

Iran

86

9

4 1

European Union

85

7

5

3

USA

67

18

14

2

Georgia

43

46

10

1

Turkey

7

90

31

Azerbaijan 2
0 20 40

97

1 0

60

80

100

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IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

International Relations: Partners and Threats

Which countries are the most important partners for Armenia ? Which countries are threats to Armenia ?
86 90

Partners
62 50 44 34

Threats

80

30 19 22 5

6 0
Russia France

7

3
European Union USA Georgia

3
Azerbaijan

1 0
None

1 2
DK/NA

Iran

Turkey

35
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

How important is it for Armenia to solve the problems related to Nagorno Karabakh in the near future?

77

20

2

1

0

Very important

Rather important

Not very important

Not at all important

DK / NA

36
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Thinking about the future of Nagorno Karabakh, do you think it should … (%)
41

31 27

0
Be an ordinary Be an region of autonomous Armenia, without region of the any autonomy Armenian state Be an independent country Be a part of Azerbaijan

1
DK/NA

37
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Do you think that the current situation in regard to the status of Nagorno Karabakh should be resolved through negotiations and peaceful means or, if necessary, the use of force? (%)

85

13

0

2

60

80

100

Negotiations and peaceful means

Using force if necessary

Other

DK/NA

38
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Does it concern you that the President of Azerbaijan has pledged to increase defense spending dramatically?

Not very concerned 10% Neutral 10%

Not at all concerned 5%

DK/NA 5%

Yes, very concerned 37%

Slightly concerned 33%

39
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Do you think that a peaceful settlement on Nagorno Karabakh can be reached with Azerbaijan without military force being used?

Definitely not 3% Probably not 21%

DK/NA 5%

Definitely yes 19%

Probably yes 52%

40
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

In your opinion, does the presence of the Russian military base in Armenia have a positive or negative influence on Armenian independence and stability?

Negative influence 2% Both positive and negative 11%

DK/NA 6%

Positive influence 65%

Neither positive nor negative 16%

41
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Should the Government of Armenia agree to open the border for trade, etc. with Turkey – even if the Turkish Government does not recognize the Genocide ?

DK/NA 9%

Should open the border regardless 42%

Should not open the border 49%

42
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Do you agree with the US, EU and Russian efforts to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons?

DK/NA 16% Definitely disagree 11%

Definitely agree 31%

Somewhat disagree 16%

Somewhat agree 26%

43
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Do you have friends or relatives working abroad?

DK/NA 0% No 39%

Yes 61%

44
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Do you personally benefit from remittances being sent from friends or relatives working abroad? (Of those interviewed, 737 have friends or relatives abroad)

DK/NA 0%

Yes 45%

No 55%

45
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

How do you feel about the living standard of ethnic Armenians in Georgia?

(%)

8

36

46

10

0

20

40

60
DK/NA

80

100

Better than in Armenia Worse than in Armenia

About the same as here

46
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Do you think Russia is a trustworthy ally of Armenia? (%)

45

42

7 33

0

20
Definitely yes

40
Probably yes

60
Probably now

80
Definitely now DK/NA

100

47
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Should Armenia in the future… (%)

Join NATO

10

30

28

17

14

Join the EU

38

42

9

3 8

Remain a member of the CIS

49

33

8

3 6

Definitely yes

Probably yes

Probably no

Definitely no

DK/NA

48
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

INSTITUTIONS

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IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Confidence in Institutions (%)
European Union CIS Army United Nations Church Armenian Media OSCE NATO Central bank Educational system Police President's Office Government (Cabinet of Ministers) Political Parties Armenian Parliament

87 83 83 78 77 67 63 51 48 45 40 35 33 32 31
Favorable Unfavorable
ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

13 14 17 15 21 31 23 36 45 53 59 60 64 65 67
No opinion 50

3 7 2 2

14 13 7 2 1 5 3 3 2

IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA

HEROES OF OUR TIME

51
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Heroes of our time
Of the prominent characters in Armenian history and folk culture, who is most suitable to be a national hero or leader in current times? (Open-ended question, %)
35

14 10 9 6 6 5 4 4 2
Karen Demirchyan Sharl Aznavur Andranik Garegin Njdeh Vazgen Sargsyan Tigran Metz Mesrop Mashtoc Monte Melkonyan

15

8

52

IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA

ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

DK/NA

Other

None

Dro

VALUES OF ARMENIAN PEOPLE (Mean scores, where 1 - “Important to me”, 9 - “Most important to me”
Safety and Protection Acceptance from family, friends and community Security Self - respect Being well - respected Close companionships and friendships Leading a pleasurable, happy life Success Peace of mind and utilizing your talents Warm relationships with others Enjoying life Self- fulfillment A sense of accomplishment Self confidence Excitement A sense of belonging To be admired by others Leading an exciting, stimulating life
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA

8,0 8,0 7,9 7,6 7,5 7,3 7,2 7,2 7,1 7,1 6,9 6,9 6,6 6,2 6,1 6,0 5,8 4,8

53
ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Tolerance
It is a good thing for any society to be made up of people from different religions

27

66

7

Armenia has always consisted of various cultural and religious groups

37

56

7

In order to be fully accepted members of Armenian society, people belonging to minority groups must give up parts of their religion or culture which may conflict with Armenian traditions

39

50

11

Armenia has reached its limits; if there were to be more people belonging to religious minorities Armenia would have problems

49

39

12

Whether people belonging to religious minority groups can be fully accepted members of Armenian society depends on which group they belong to

39

45

16

Tend to agree

Tend to disagree

DK/NA

54

IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA

ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Trust in elections

How fraudulent was the referendum of 2005? (10 - very fraudulent, 1 - not at all fraudulent)
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

7.54

7.8 7.31 7.41

8.15 7.51 7.7 7.14 7.25

Capital

18-29

30-49

Town

Total

Male

50+

Female

IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA

ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Village

55

Trust in elections

Next Parliamentary elections will be (%)
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

70

17

13

Parties’ electorate
Free and fair Not free and fair No opinion

56

IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA

ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Trust in elections

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

How fraudulent will the upcoming Parliamentary elections be? (10 - very fraudulent, 1 - not at all fraudulent)
7.44 7.65 6.73 6.63 7.04

7.04

7.12

6.96

6.64

6.99

Capital

Town

Village

Total

18-29

Female

30-49

IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA

ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Total
57

Male

50+

Trust in elections
Do you think the Armenian Government is implementing antifraud measures for the parliamentary elections and that elections will indeed be free and fair?
DK/NA 17%

Yes, it is implementing such measures and there will be improvement 22%

No, it is not sincere and there will not be improvement 61%

58
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHICS

59
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Gender
Male 47% Female 53%

50+ y.o. 31%

Age groups

18-29 y.o. 27%

30-49 y.o. 42%
60
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

University, higher 34%

Education
Primary 1% Unfinished secondary 7%

Unfinished higher 7%

Vocational 23%

Secondary 28%

Household size
Five and more 45% One 4% Two 10% Four 28% Three 13%

61
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Sector of employment
Don't work 64%

DK/NA 1% Non governmental 1% State 18% Private 16%

Membership in organizations
Member of NGO DK/NA 0.0% 2.0% None 89.0% Member of a party 9.0%

62
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Attendance of religious service
Once a week 11% A few times a week 3% Every Day 2% A few times per year 45% Once a month 28%

DK/NA 1%

Never 10%

Other Christian 1,0% Muslim 0,0% Yezidi 1,0%

Other 1,0%

NA/DK 0,0%

Religion
None 1,0%

Armenian Apostolic 96,0%
63

IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA

ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006

Region
Syunik 4% Shirak 9% Kotayk 8% Vayots Dzor 2% Tavush 4%

Ye re van 37%

Lory 8% Samtskhe Javakhe ti 5% Armavir 9% Ararat 8%

Aragatsotn 4%

64
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, May 2006


								
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