Average NHC Atlantic Track Forecast Errors (n mi) All Tropical Cyclones1, 2
Year 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 199099 20003 06 Notes: 0h Error 18.2 22.2 16.9 13.5 16.5 13.7 12.9 12.6 12.4 13.9 11.2 10.7 7.9 7.3 7.8 6.3 7.5 9.5 14.4 8.0 N 257 372 131 219 177 177 568 383 127 387 397 333 338 312 394 413 642 241 2946 2673 12 h Error 51.5 59.8 57.6 47.2 51.7 49.3 47.9 45.5 45.3 48.4 38.9 41.4 43.9 41.4 37.1 32.6 35.1 29.7 48.5 37.1 N 252 346 114 205 168 161 538 365 112 371 371 304 301 287 362 389 591 223 2757 2457 24 h Error 95.9 107.5 107.2 91.8 99.9 92.8 89.5 76.8 83.8 84.9 72.1 74.1 76.7 72.2 64.4 57.5 59.7 50.8 88.4 64.4 N 237 317 92 186 158 141 502 343 96 349 347 270 262 257 327 363 534 205 2531 2218 36 h Error 143.3 154.4 145.5 138.1 145.4 139.2 128.4 106.2 119.5 117.9 105.1 105.5 108.0 103.7 93.2 79.7 84.2 71.9 126.4 91.2 N 214 285 72 168 134 123 466 321 83 327 321 239 237 228 291 335 478 187 2302 1995 48 h Error 195.9 204.6 186.3 186.6 183.3 212.1 166.3 133.8 138.5 147.4 138.8 137.5 142.4 137.5 123.1 101.2 106.4 97.0 164.0 118.5 N 188 255 58 150 118 100 426 294 71 298 294 211 217 201 256 307 429 169 2064 1790 72 h Error 293.1 312.3 317.2 294.3 247.3 395.6 244.9 199.2 184.3 208.1 205.0 229.1 216.9 200.1 160.8 151.4 156.2 148.7 245.4 175.9 N 152 205 38 118 87 79 356 247 59 248 242 165 170 166 197 267 338 132 1679 1435 228.6 1013 299.7 820 281.9 282.2 190.6 212.7 219.8 205.5 128 137 156 228 264 100 372.0 375.8 222.6 295.4 285.6 265.3 97 119 125 194 207 78 96 h Error
3
120 h N Error
3
N
1. Verification based on NHC best track database as of 3/20/2007. 2. Verification sample is homogeneous with best-track 5-day CLIPER, and includes subtropical cyclones. 3. 96- and 120-h forecasts began in 2001, but were not publicly released until 2003.