Document Sample
Statistics Powered By Docstoc
					The Truth, The Whole Truth and Nothing but…………. Statistics!

The response to our survey was from 860 riders. To begin the debate on Insurance, security and theft
based on the results from our survey which will be released in April, we are publishing this article on
Motorcycle theft statistics put together by our Public Relations department. It highlights the trials
and tribulations of statistics – also known as ‘Lies and more damned lies’ For our riders the most
important piece of news from the Home Office is that 73% of motorbikes stolen are UNDER 200cc –

In November 2002, the Home Office released the Motorcycle Theft Index in which there is a breakdown
of the vulnerability to theft of all makes and models of scooters, mopeds and motorcycles or Powered Two
Wheelers (PTWs). The document states that more than 35,000 people were affected by PTW thefts in
England, Wales and Scotland in 2000. However, in their press release, they only analyse data relative to
28,957 thefts. Though they state that total thefts were 36,822 with the caution that the DVLA data may be
wrongly reported or recorded. Also, the paper refers only to England and Wales with regards to
recoveries, so it is not clear whether this mean that the recoveries are a percentage of 36,822 or 28,957,
though presumably these data relate to Great Britain.

However, prior to this study and subsequent press release there were different theft statistics also released
by the Home Office and still used by various agencies and organisations as the source of PTW theft in this
country. This article will demonstrate the twisted path of motorcycle theft statistics in this country and let
you – the reader decide on whether you can believe the numbers game that insurance and security
companies are playing.

Table One PNC Annual Stolen/Missing Statistics
                                            96/97       97/98        98/99       99/00        00/01
Scooter                                          310         383          725       1,454        2,506
Moped                                          3,169       2,923        2,801       3,131        3,642
Motorcycle (745 to 2000cc)                     2,563       2,818        3,119       2,866        2,470
Motorcycle (0 to 744cc)                       10,336       9,346        9,149       9,428        9,533
Total                                         16,378      15,470      15,794      16,879        18,151
% of parc stolen                                1.78        1.62         1.56        1.62         1.57
NB: Figures are for PTWs reported stolen/missing in each year and which have not been recovered
    as at September 01; according to the Home Office, these figures do not include total thefts which
    would be equal to an increase of c.30%

Motorcycle Action Group MAG UK PO BOX 750 Rugby CV21 3ZR Tel 0870 444 8 448 Fax 0870 444 8 449         1
Graph One. Trends in PTW theft from the PNC 1996 to 2001

       20 000

       15 000

       10 000

        50 00

                          96 /9 7         97 /9 8           98 /9 9          99 /0 0           00 /0 1

                Scooter       Mop ed   Motorcycl e (7 45 to 200 0cc)      Motorcycl e (0 to 74 4cc)

The findings from the PNC data in table one and graph one show that there has been more than a 700%
growth in scooter theft over this period (starting from 310 in 1996) and an increase of 15% in moped
thefts. Conversely there has been an 8% decline in the theft of motorcycles with engine sizes of 0 to 744cc
and a decline of 4% of theft for motorcycles of 745 to 2000cc over this five-year period.

PNC Breakdown by Make July to November 2001
Theft data by make from the Police National Computer received from Retainagroup and covering the year
2001 were analysed. The data relate to two sets of information. The first set covers one year. However,
the recovery rates are incomplete therefore will not be included in this analysis. A second set covers four
months from July to November 2001. The data are far more accurate as Retainagroup tracked the thefts
and their subsequent recoveries over this period of time. The first table of eight PTW makes shows those
registering more than 500 thefts with total thefts of 11,218. This figure represents 88% of all thefts for
that period. The second table of twelve PTW makes refers to thefts from >50 to 499 and is equal to a total
of 1,076 thefts or 8% of all thefts for that period. Finally the third set represents 50 makes and refers to
thefts of <501 (525 thefts or 4% of all thefts for that period). Recovery rates for the three groups range
between 33% to 36%. The recovery rates of the first two groups are the most significant and relevant to
this study. The first group shows that the recovery rates range from 43% for Piaggio to 27% for
Kawasaki. These rates are far higher than previously suggested by anecdotal reports from the police.

From these data covering the 4 months July to November 2001, it would seem that motorcycle theft as a
percentage of parc is c.1% of parc2 while theft for scooters averages over 3% of parc. The parc data
reported herein were sourced from the SMMT Motorparc department.

NB: Consider that the percentage of parc for theft of PTWs is relevant for the period covered and is not
proportionate to an annual analysis of PTW theft. This analysis is covered under the Home Office Study
on PTW theft.

1 < = less than; > = more than.
2 ‘Parc’ is a term used worldwide in the automotive industry to denote the total number of registered vehicles on
the road; in this case powered two wheeled vehicles.

Motorcycle Action Group MAG UK PO BOX 750 Rugby CV21 3ZR Tel 0870 444 8 448 Fax 0870 444 8 449                      2
Table Two - Theft of PTWs >500 thefts
       500 thefts     Total      Total      %               Parc      Stolen %
                      Stolen   recovered Recovered                     of parc
1 HONDA                  3,534      1,277        36        303,218           1.2
2 YAMAHA                 1,777        596        34        171,382           1.0
3 PIAGGIO                1,350        578        43         38,539           3.5
4 SUZUKI                 1,279        403        32        154,579           0.8
5 GILERA                   878        358        41         16,020           5.5
6 KAWASAKI                 843        227        27        122,953           0.7
7 APRILIA                  814        335        41         23,961           3.4
8 PEUGEOT                  743        255        34         30,208           2.5
              Total    11,218       4,029        36        860,860           1.3

The second group has a far wider range of recovery rates, from 45% for Sym to only 7% for Harley-
Davidson. However in terms of theft as a percentage of parc, Sym has a far higher level of theft at
4.5% than Harley-Davidson/Buell which is only 0.4%.

Table Three Thefts of PTWs >50 – 499 thefts
        Between 50 and Total        Total      %                   Parc    Stolen %
          499 thefts     Stolen   recovered Recovered                       of parc
   1 SYM                     206            92      45            6,321           3.3
   2 ITALJET                 118            44      37            2,790           4.2
   3 VESPA                   101            31      31            8,191           1.2
   4 MALAGUTI                 93            35      38             3248           2.9
   5 DERBI                    86            25      29             3067           2.8
   6 BMW                      73            38      52           35,298           0.2
   7 HARLEY-D                 73             5       7           19,905           0.4
   8 MBK                      72            30      42            1,761           4.1
   9 DUCATI                   67            14      21           15,464           0.4
   10 KYMCO                   67            30      45             2515           2.7
   11 CAGIVA                  63            22      35             3907           1.6
   12 TRIUMPH                 57            14      25           45,027           0.1
                  Total    1,076          380       35          147,494           0.7

Table Four Thefts of PTWs <50
       Less than 50      Total Stolen   Total recovered     % Recovered
                   Total            525                 173                    33

MAG wishes to thank Retainagroup for their kind permission to use these tables and the following

Motorcycle Action Group MAG UK PO BOX 750 Rugby CV21 3ZR Tel 0870 444 8 448 Fax 0870 444 8 449        3
Graph Two - Data extracted from the Police National Computer for PTW thefts and recoveries
from November 2000 to December 2001

 4000                                                                                                                              1600

 3500                                                                                                                              1400

 3000                                                                                                                              1200

 2500                                                                                                                              1000

 2000                                                                                                                              800

 1500                                                                                                                              600

 1000                                                                                                                              400

  500                                                                                                                              200

    0                                                                                                                              0
          Nov-00   Dec-00 Jan-01   Feb-01   Mar-01 Apr-01 May-01      Jun-01     Jul-01   Aug-01 Sep-01   Oct-01 Nov-01   Dec-01

                                                             stolen            Rec

        Table Five - Theft and recovery of PTWs from the PNC

                                   Stolen              Rec                % Rec.
        Nov-00                          1685                 102               6.1
        Dec-00                          1320                  57               4.3
        Jan-01                          1693                 130               7.7
        Feb-01                          1424                  75               5.3
        Mar-01                          1400                  84               6.0
        Apr-01                          1699                 163               9.6
        May-01                          2062                 341              16.5
        Jun-01                          2680                1074              40.1
        Jul-01                          2744                1141              41.6
        Aug-01                          2861                1171              40.9
        Sep-01                          2989                1208              40.4
        Oct-01                          3443                1497              43.5
        Nov-01                          3291                1340              40.7
        Dec-01                          2398                 858              35.8

The relevance of the previous graph two and table five is that from June 2001 to December 2001, the
company Retainagroup, which has access to the Police National Computer, monitored the thefts and
recoveries of Power Two Wheeled Vehicles. The Retainagroup analyst recorded the details of these
vehicles held on the PNC and where relevant, the removal of the same vehicles from the PNC. The
removal presumed that there had been a recovery of the presumed stolen vehicle. The striking difference
prior to the analysis of the PNC, highlights the significant change not only of the theft data from the
previous six months but far more important, the recovery rates. Consider that prior to this analysis all data
from the PNC used for the purpose of divulging information to the trade and public regarding thefts and
recoveries were taken for granted as having a degree of accuracy. The levels of recovery of PTW had
always been considered as very low.

Motorcycle Action Group MAG UK PO BOX 750 Rugby CV21 3ZR Tel 0870 444 8 448 Fax 0870 444 8 449                                            4
The previous table illustrates however, that recovery levels are around 40%. Hence it is clear that the
information from the PNC prior to this analysis has been highly inaccurate and not representative of the
theft and recovery of PTWs stolen in this country. This has profound implications on the motorcycle
changes the        Numbers stolen and theft rates
                   Between 1st Jan 2000 and 31st December 2000, there were around 1.1 million PTW’s registered
whole vision       on the road in England, Wales and Scotland. During this time 36,822 PTW’s were stolen.
of PTW theft However, the report is based on 28,957 thefts recorded on the PNC as the DVLA only had full
in this            records for this amount that were licensed in 2000. This could be due to the Vehicle registration
country.           mark being wrongly reported/recorded or due to vehicles not registered with the DVLA.
That raises
                   Separating mopeds and scooters from motorbikes reveals that it is the former that are most at
the issue of       risk of theft. 12,806 motorbikes were stolen in 2000 equating to a theft rate of 15 per 1,000
the DVLA’s         registered however, 16,151 mopeds and scooters were reported stolen in the same period
data i.e.          producing a theft rate of 53 per 1,000 registered (see Table below). Anecdotally, it has been
according to       suggested that it is those PTW’s with larger engines i.e. >500cc that account for a large
                   proportion of thefts. The following table reveals, however, that those PTW’s below 500cc,
their own          which could be considered as the ‘lower powered’ end of the market, make up only 51% of total
analysis,          parc but account for over 82% of all thefts.
c.25% of
PTW in                                Number and rate of theft of all PTW groups stolen in 2000.
2000 were                                  PTW group                                         Theft rate per 1,000
                                                                     Number stolen
                                       (Engine Capacity cc)                                       registered
and that                                  Moped/Scooter                  16,151                       53
would add
on c.300,000                        Motorbikes: 101–200cc                 5,043                       47
more to the                                     201–300cc                 1,001                       17
                                                301–400cc                 1,024                       17
parc which                                      401–500cc                  390                         6
was                                             501–600cc                 2,139                       13
1,158,000 in                                    601–700cc                   393                        8
2000,                                           701–900cc                 1,318                        9
bringing it                                     901–1050cc                  900                       10
                                                >1050cc                    596                         6
nearer to 1.5                       Total                                12,806                       15
million. The                        Grand total                          28,957                       25
question to
ask here is        Motorbikes with an engine capacity of between 101 – 200cc have the highest theft rate of all
whether            motorbike groups at around 47 per 1,000 registered on the road. This compares with bikes with
                   engines >1,050cc who have an estimated theft rate of only 6 per 1,000 registered. Split by type,
riders who         mopeds and scooters make up just 26% of the total parc but account for 56% of all thefts. While
are do not         motorbikes up to 500cc make up 25% of the total parc they account for 26% of all PTW thefts.
pay road tax       (Source Home Office Website)
or insurance
report thefts to the police? If they do, then the whole analysis of thefts per thousand by the Home Office
would be skewed. The Home Office press release also states that the types of PTWs and identify theft of
mopeds and scooters as 26% of parc but 56% of total thefts while motorbikes up to 500cc make up 25% of
total parc and 26% of all PTW thefts. Therefore PTWs of an engine size less than 500cc equal 82% of all
PTW thefts. However, up until now, the motorcycling public have been lead to believe that the greatest
risk of theft were the higher engine sized bikes like Honda Fireblades etc, and accordingly riders have
been paying through the nose for insurance because of this misleading information - which by the way,
has come from the Police and NCIS. But because this issue has not been publicised, riders with Fireblades
and the like will continue to be stung by insurers, with the added bonus for the insurers that they can now
sting scooter owners as well.

Motorcycle Action Group MAG UK PO BOX 750 Rugby CV21 3ZR Tel 0870 444 8 448 Fax 0870 444 8 449               5

Shared By: