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The Truth, The Whole Truth and Nothing but…………. Statistics!
The response to our survey was from 860 riders. To begin the debate on Insurance, security and theft
based on the results from our survey which will be released in April, we are publishing this article on
Motorcycle theft statistics put together by our Public Relations department. It highlights the trials
and tribulations of statistics – also known as ‘Lies and more damned lies’ For our riders the most
important piece of news from the Home Office is that 73% of motorbikes stolen are UNDER 200cc –
So, WHY ARE WE PAYING THROUGH THE NOSE TO INSURE OUR BIKES AGAINST
THEFT?
In November 2002, the Home Office released the Motorcycle Theft Index in which there is a breakdown
of the vulnerability to theft of all makes and models of scooters, mopeds and motorcycles or Powered Two
Wheelers (PTWs). The document states that more than 35,000 people were affected by PTW thefts in
England, Wales and Scotland in 2000. However, in their press release, they only analyse data relative to
28,957 thefts. Though they state that total thefts were 36,822 with the caution that the DVLA data may be
wrongly reported or recorded. Also, the paper refers only to England and Wales with regards to
recoveries, so it is not clear whether this mean that the recoveries are a percentage of 36,822 or 28,957,
though presumably these data relate to Great Britain.
However, prior to this study and subsequent press release there were different theft statistics also released
by the Home Office and still used by various agencies and organisations as the source of PTW theft in this
country. This article will demonstrate the twisted path of motorcycle theft statistics in this country and let
you – the reader decide on whether you can believe the numbers game that insurance and security
companies are playing.
Table One PNC Annual Stolen/Missing Statistics
96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01
Scooter 310 383 725 1,454 2,506
Moped 3,169 2,923 2,801 3,131 3,642
Motorcycle (745 to 2000cc) 2,563 2,818 3,119 2,866 2,470
Motorcycle (0 to 744cc) 10,336 9,346 9,149 9,428 9,533
Total 16,378 15,470 15,794 16,879 18,151
% of parc stolen 1.78 1.62 1.56 1.62 1.57
NB: Figures are for PTWs reported stolen/missing in each year and which have not been recovered
as at September 01; according to the Home Office, these figures do not include total thefts which
would be equal to an increase of c.30%
Motorcycle Action Group MAG UK PO BOX 750 Rugby CV21 3ZR Tel 0870 444 8 448 Fax 0870 444 8 449 1
Graph One. Trends in PTW theft from the PNC 1996 to 2001
20 000
15 000
10 000
50 00
0
96 /9 7 97 /9 8 98 /9 9 99 /0 0 00 /0 1
Scooter Mop ed Motorcycl e (7 45 to 200 0cc) Motorcycl e (0 to 74 4cc)
The findings from the PNC data in table one and graph one show that there has been more than a 700%
growth in scooter theft over this period (starting from 310 in 1996) and an increase of 15% in moped
thefts. Conversely there has been an 8% decline in the theft of motorcycles with engine sizes of 0 to 744cc
and a decline of 4% of theft for motorcycles of 745 to 2000cc over this five-year period.
PNC Breakdown by Make July to November 2001
Theft data by make from the Police National Computer received from Retainagroup and covering the year
2001 were analysed. The data relate to two sets of information. The first set covers one year. However,
the recovery rates are incomplete therefore will not be included in this analysis. A second set covers four
months from July to November 2001. The data are far more accurate as Retainagroup tracked the thefts
and their subsequent recoveries over this period of time. The first table of eight PTW makes shows those
registering more than 500 thefts with total thefts of 11,218. This figure represents 88% of all thefts for
that period. The second table of twelve PTW makes refers to thefts from >50 to 499 and is equal to a total
of 1,076 thefts or 8% of all thefts for that period. Finally the third set represents 50 makes and refers to
thefts of <501 (525 thefts or 4% of all thefts for that period). Recovery rates for the three groups range
between 33% to 36%. The recovery rates of the first two groups are the most significant and relevant to
this study. The first group shows that the recovery rates range from 43% for Piaggio to 27% for
Kawasaki. These rates are far higher than previously suggested by anecdotal reports from the police.
From these data covering the 4 months July to November 2001, it would seem that motorcycle theft as a
percentage of parc is c.1% of parc2 while theft for scooters averages over 3% of parc. The parc data
reported herein were sourced from the SMMT Motorparc department.
NB: Consider that the percentage of parc for theft of PTWs is relevant for the period covered and is not
proportionate to an annual analysis of PTW theft. This analysis is covered under the Home Office Study
on PTW theft.
1 < = less than; > = more than.
2 ‘Parc’ is a term used worldwide in the automotive industry to denote the total number of registered vehicles on
the road; in this case powered two wheeled vehicles.
Motorcycle Action Group MAG UK PO BOX 750 Rugby CV21 3ZR Tel 0870 444 8 448 Fax 0870 444 8 449 2
Table Two - Theft of PTWs >500 thefts
500 thefts Total Total % Parc Stolen %
Stolen recovered Recovered of parc
1 HONDA 3,534 1,277 36 303,218 1.2
2 YAMAHA 1,777 596 34 171,382 1.0
3 PIAGGIO 1,350 578 43 38,539 3.5
4 SUZUKI 1,279 403 32 154,579 0.8
5 GILERA 878 358 41 16,020 5.5
6 KAWASAKI 843 227 27 122,953 0.7
7 APRILIA 814 335 41 23,961 3.4
8 PEUGEOT 743 255 34 30,208 2.5
Total 11,218 4,029 36 860,860 1.3
The second group has a far wider range of recovery rates, from 45% for Sym to only 7% for Harley-
Davidson. However in terms of theft as a percentage of parc, Sym has a far higher level of theft at
4.5% than Harley-Davidson/Buell which is only 0.4%.
Table Three Thefts of PTWs >50 – 499 thefts
Between 50 and Total Total % Parc Stolen %
499 thefts Stolen recovered Recovered of parc
1 SYM 206 92 45 6,321 3.3
2 ITALJET 118 44 37 2,790 4.2
3 VESPA 101 31 31 8,191 1.2
4 MALAGUTI 93 35 38 3248 2.9
5 DERBI 86 25 29 3067 2.8
6 BMW 73 38 52 35,298 0.2
7 HARLEY-D 73 5 7 19,905 0.4
8 MBK 72 30 42 1,761 4.1
9 DUCATI 67 14 21 15,464 0.4
10 KYMCO 67 30 45 2515 2.7
11 CAGIVA 63 22 35 3907 1.6
12 TRIUMPH 57 14 25 45,027 0.1
Total 1,076 380 35 147,494 0.7
Table Four Thefts of PTWs <50
Less than 50 Total Stolen Total recovered % Recovered
Total 525 173 33
MAG wishes to thank Retainagroup for their kind permission to use these tables and the following
graph. www.retainagroup.com
Motorcycle Action Group MAG UK PO BOX 750 Rugby CV21 3ZR Tel 0870 444 8 448 Fax 0870 444 8 449 3
Graph Two - Data extracted from the Police National Computer for PTW thefts and recoveries
from November 2000 to December 2001
4000 1600
3500 1400
3000 1200
2500 1000
2000 800
1500 600
1000 400
500 200
0 0
Nov-00 Dec-00 Jan-01 Feb-01 Mar-01 Apr-01 May-01 Jun-01 Jul-01 Aug-01 Sep-01 Oct-01 Nov-01 Dec-01
stolen Rec
Table Five - Theft and recovery of PTWs from the PNC
Stolen Rec % Rec.
Nov-00 1685 102 6.1
Dec-00 1320 57 4.3
Jan-01 1693 130 7.7
Feb-01 1424 75 5.3
Mar-01 1400 84 6.0
Apr-01 1699 163 9.6
May-01 2062 341 16.5
Jun-01 2680 1074 40.1
Jul-01 2744 1141 41.6
Aug-01 2861 1171 40.9
Sep-01 2989 1208 40.4
Oct-01 3443 1497 43.5
Nov-01 3291 1340 40.7
Dec-01 2398 858 35.8
The relevance of the previous graph two and table five is that from June 2001 to December 2001, the
company Retainagroup, which has access to the Police National Computer, monitored the thefts and
recoveries of Power Two Wheeled Vehicles. The Retainagroup analyst recorded the details of these
vehicles held on the PNC and where relevant, the removal of the same vehicles from the PNC. The
removal presumed that there had been a recovery of the presumed stolen vehicle. The striking difference
prior to the analysis of the PNC, highlights the significant change not only of the theft data from the
previous six months but far more important, the recovery rates. Consider that prior to this analysis all data
from the PNC used for the purpose of divulging information to the trade and public regarding thefts and
recoveries were taken for granted as having a degree of accuracy. The levels of recovery of PTW had
always been considered as very low.
Motorcycle Action Group MAG UK PO BOX 750 Rugby CV21 3ZR Tel 0870 444 8 448 Fax 0870 444 8 449 4
The previous table illustrates however, that recovery levels are around 40%. Hence it is clear that the
information from the PNC prior to this analysis has been highly inaccurate and not representative of the
theft and recovery of PTWs stolen in this country. This has profound implications on the motorcycle
industry,
because it EXCERPT FROM MAIN FINDINGS - HOME OFFICE REPORT ON PTW THEFT
changes the Numbers stolen and theft rates
Between 1st Jan 2000 and 31st December 2000, there were around 1.1 million PTW’s registered
whole vision on the road in England, Wales and Scotland. During this time 36,822 PTW’s were stolen.
of PTW theft However, the report is based on 28,957 thefts recorded on the PNC as the DVLA only had full
in this records for this amount that were licensed in 2000. This could be due to the Vehicle registration
country. mark being wrongly reported/recorded or due to vehicles not registered with the DVLA.
That raises
Separating mopeds and scooters from motorbikes reveals that it is the former that are most at
the issue of risk of theft. 12,806 motorbikes were stolen in 2000 equating to a theft rate of 15 per 1,000
the DVLA’s registered however, 16,151 mopeds and scooters were reported stolen in the same period
data i.e. producing a theft rate of 53 per 1,000 registered (see Table below). Anecdotally, it has been
according to suggested that it is those PTW’s with larger engines i.e. >500cc that account for a large
proportion of thefts. The following table reveals, however, that those PTW’s below 500cc,
their own which could be considered as the ‘lower powered’ end of the market, make up only 51% of total
analysis, parc but account for over 82% of all thefts.
c.25% of
PTW in Number and rate of theft of all PTW groups stolen in 2000.
2000 were PTW group Theft rate per 1,000
Number stolen
(Engine Capacity cc) registered
unregistered
and that Moped/Scooter 16,151 53
would add
on c.300,000 Motorbikes: 101–200cc 5,043 47
more to the 201–300cc 1,001 17
301–400cc 1,024 17
parc which 401–500cc 390 6
was 501–600cc 2,139 13
1,158,000 in 601–700cc 393 8
2000, 701–900cc 1,318 9
bringing it 901–1050cc 900 10
>1050cc 596 6
nearer to 1.5 Total 12,806 15
million. The Grand total 28,957 25
question to
ask here is Motorbikes with an engine capacity of between 101 – 200cc have the highest theft rate of all
whether motorbike groups at around 47 per 1,000 registered on the road. This compares with bikes with
engines >1,050cc who have an estimated theft rate of only 6 per 1,000 registered. Split by type,
riders who mopeds and scooters make up just 26% of the total parc but account for 56% of all thefts. While
are do not motorbikes up to 500cc make up 25% of the total parc they account for 26% of all PTW thefts.
pay road tax (Source Home Office Website)
or insurance
report thefts to the police? If they do, then the whole analysis of thefts per thousand by the Home Office
would be skewed. The Home Office press release also states that the types of PTWs and identify theft of
mopeds and scooters as 26% of parc but 56% of total thefts while motorbikes up to 500cc make up 25% of
total parc and 26% of all PTW thefts. Therefore PTWs of an engine size less than 500cc equal 82% of all
PTW thefts. However, up until now, the motorcycling public have been lead to believe that the greatest
risk of theft were the higher engine sized bikes like Honda Fireblades etc, and accordingly riders have
been paying through the nose for insurance because of this misleading information - which by the way,
has come from the Police and NCIS. But because this issue has not been publicised, riders with Fireblades
and the like will continue to be stung by insurers, with the added bonus for the insurers that they can now
sting scooter owners as well.
Motorcycle Action Group MAG UK PO BOX 750 Rugby CV21 3ZR Tel 0870 444 8 448 Fax 0870 444 8 449 5
