From Observation to Action Development of a Global Observation System by NWS

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									From Observation to Action
Development of a Global Observation System




                          Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., U.S. Navy (Ret.)
                          Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans & Atmosphere/NOAA
                                                                   October 22, 2004
       Science…

    El Niño       North Pacific Oscillation (NPO)




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       …affects society…

    Supply            Demand




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                  …and therefore decisions.

    Environment vs. Hydropower   Urban vs. Agriculture




                                       Long term contracts
                                               vs.
                                          Spot market
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                     Bridging between science
                     & societal users
    Underlying Problems and Issues
         Added Challenge for Earth Scientists
              Must address both science and wide-ranging societal needs
         Trend to Justify Science on Societal Benefits
              How do we balance “knowledge” and “societal benefits” as motivators for science?
         Relating Science to User Needs
              Rigorous mechanisms for relating observational requirements to societal needs are in
               their infancy
                                            Societal Needs
               SHELTER FOOD WATER SAFETY PROSPERITY EXPLORATION KNOWLEDGE




                                                   “PUSH”            Science
                Operations & Applications                    Defined by Science Questions

5                 Defined by User Requirements
                                                    “PULL”
                     Bridging between science
                     & societal users (contd.)
    Toward Solutions
         Treat Knowledge as a Societal Benefit
              Need to place knowledge alongside health, safety, etc.
         Balance “Push” and “Pull”
              Integrate push from science side, pull from user side
         Promote Interaction
              Formally strengthen dialogue between scientists and users


                                            Societal Needs
               SHELTER FOOD WATER SAFETY PROSPERITY EXPLORATION KNOWLEDGE




                                                   “PUSH”            Science
                Operations & Applications                    Defined by Science Questions

6                 Defined by User Requirements
                                                    “PULL”
                    Evolving Role of the
                    Science Community
    Originating science, creating models,
    & developing observing technologies
    Designing observing strategies and
    systems
    Transferring designs, technologies,
    models, and tested systems to the
    public and private sectors
    Partnering in the governance and
    management of long-term observing and decision support systems
    Infusing new objectives and technologies into on-going systems
    Linking new capabilities to new users


                   Universities are becoming more
7                multi-disciplinary and service-oriented
                New Management
                Concepts are Required
    System of systems
    Multi-sector consortia
    Standards
    Interoperability
    Open communication
    Evolving, adaptive


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                       Act Locally




    Model Regionally




    Observe Globally
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                  Think Globally




         Model
     Regionally




                   Observe Locally
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                 Sound Science for Sound
                 Decision-Making
     “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.”
                                         Carl Sagan, 1934-1996




     The comprehensive Global Earth Observation System
     of Systems will be as interrelated as the planet it
     observes, predicts and protects. The result will be
     sound science on which sound policy must be built.
     For the first time we’ll able to take the pulse of the
     planet.
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                             Benefits Focus



                   Natural & Human                            Water Resources                         Terrestrial, Coastal
                   Induced Disasters                                                                       & Marine
                                                                                                          Ecosystems




Human Health &                           Energy Resources                            Sustainable
  Well-Being                                                                         Agriculture &
                                                                                    Desertification




                  Weather Information,                      Climate Variability &                        Biodiversity
12               Forecasting & Warning                            Change
                      Disasters

     Afflict all regions of the world
           Significant loss of life and property

     What if...
           We had access to all our systems?
                Research and operational
           Results in more precise
            assessment of current phenomena
           Better models
           More accurate forecasts

     Desired Outcome
           Global disaster reduction & warning system
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                     Drought

     Worldwide implications
          Asia particularly prone to desertification & drought
          Affects agriculture production, water supply, &
           wildfires

     United States -
          Annual U.S. losses are $6-8 billion
          Western U.S. experiencing 5-year drought
          Lackluster 2004 Arizona monsoon season
           worsens local conditions

     GEOSS Recommendation
          Fully integrate in situ & satellite observations
          On-time drought early warning system
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                     Wildfires

     Global & Local Implications
     Alaska
          Destroyed over 6.5 million acres
          Air quality concerns; hazardous
           smoke impacts

     Integrated EO System
          Better prediction and tracking of fires
          Improved tracking of smoke plume
           direction & air quality effects
          Improved response and recovery

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                     Agriculture

     Western U.S. drought predictions
          Affect planning & harvesting
          Puts restraints on water use
          Could likely cause active forest fire season

     Understanding El Niño/La Niña
     patterns
          Help predict & understand droughts,
           harvests, potential crop damage
          Make decisions based on sustainable
           agriculture practices
          Worldwide benefits to agriculture
           $450-550M annually
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                     Health

     Malaria killed more than a
     million people in 2003
          Primarily in developing world

     Early warning system
          Temperature
          Humidity                        AVHRR
          Vegetation
          Soil Moisture                   AVHRR-SST


     Possible outbreak prevention          TOPEX-SSA


                                           SeaWiFS-Chl-a
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                    Energy

     Improving accuracy of weather forecasts by 1 F could
     decrease costs of electricity by $1B annually
              Tennessee Valley Authority

     5 Day forecast for hurricanes = Cost savings for
     offshore industry & consumer alike




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                       US Contribution to GEOSS

     VISION
     Enable a healthy public,
     economy, and planet
     through an integrated,
     comprehensive, and
     sustained Earth
     observation system.
     http://iwgeo.ssc.nasa.gov/draftstrategicplan
     Comments: IWGEOcomment@noaa.gov


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                         GEOSS Architecture
                         GEOSS common approaches             Systems within their mandates
                           Predictions                                           Societal
Earth System Models                                                              Benefits
     •   Oceans
                           High Performance
     •   Ice
                           Computing,
     •   Land              Communication,
     •   Atmosphere        & Visualization         Decision Support               Policy
     •   Solid Earth
                                                   Assessments                   Decisions
     •   Biosphere
                                                   Decision Support             Management
                                                   Systems                       Decisions
                 DATA
Earth Observation          Standards &
Systems                    Interoperability
     • Remotely-sensed
     • In situ             Observations


                         Ongoing feedback to optimize value & reduce gaps
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     Operational Space-Based Global
     Observing System (2005)




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                Water Resources Vision:
                Integrated Products and Services

        High-resolution Gridded             Applications            Partners
     Water Resources Product Suite

                    « Precipitation         Drought Mitigation      NOAA
                    « Snowpack Properties   Flood Potential         Federal Agencies

                    « Soil Moisture         Flood Management        Tribal Agencies
                                            Water Allocation        State Agencies
                    « Evaporation
                                            Transportation          Local Agencies
                    « Groundwater
                                            Emergency Management    Private Sector
                    « River Flow            Agriculture             Academia
                    « Surface Storage       Ecosystems Management
                                            Research
                    « Runoff


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     PICO
     Platform & Instrumentation for Continued
     Observations




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                    Data Management System
                    for Earth Observations
     Data Management Needs
          New Observation Systems mean 100-fold
           increase in earth observation data
          Current data management systems are already
           challenged
          Linkage of observations and users of multiple
           agencies compounds challenges
          Development of browser and visualization
           systems
          Interoperability through protocols and
           standards



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     Global Earth Observing System of Systems
     (GEOSS)
             A distributed system of systems
                   Improves coordination of strategies and
                    observation systems
                   Links all platforms: in situ, aircraft, and
                    satellite networks
                   Identifies gaps in our global capacity
                   Facilitates exchange of data and
                    information
                   Improves decision-makers’ abilities to
                    address pressing policy issues

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                     Summary

     GEOSS will have far reaching implications benefiting
     numerous areas
     Single system should meet operational and research
     needs
          Partnerships are key (NIDIS/APMEX)

     GEOSS will require active “global” management to
     yield maximum societal benefits
          Research community will play a vital role



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