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					Energy in NSW,
2006 and beyond
The need to focus on base-load power
Presentation to AIE Sydney Branch seminar, July 19th 2006
Richard Hunwick
(02) 9410 9834

                                     Hunwick Consultants
In NSW, since 2004:
   Rush to air-condition households has accelerated.
   Interest in new generation capacity in NEM (including
    NSW) is focussing on open-cycle GT peak power plant.
   Some commitment to additional base and intermediate-
    load generation capacity: existing generator upgrades,
    Tallawarra CCGT station.
   Reliance on imported power (esp. from Qld) is growing.
   Natural gas prices and availability is more uncertain.
   Rate of development of coal-bed methane disappointing.
   Capacity surpluses are still being eroded—the existing
    generation base is two years older--and more tired.
   State economy has been relatively weak, easing demand
    pressures. As growth accelerates, so will power demand.


                                             Hunwick Consultants
The dash for peak capacity
Peak generation capacity is easier to develop, so this is
where the money is being invested.
Is this investment soundly based?
By 2020 (“the day after tomorrow”, in energy industries):
  “Smart meters” will be installed in virtually all
    businesses and households.
  Rooftop PV capacity will be significant, esp. in terms
    of summer afternoon peak power demands.
  Significant amounts of storage will be connected
    into the distribution grid, in the form of
    plug-in hybrid cars.
By then, plant with a cost of electricity above
$300/MWh won’t get despatched.

                                              Hunwick Consultants
Plug-in what?
In NSW in 2020 we can expect there will be:
  0.5m plug-in hybrids registered (10% of State’s total vehicle fleet).
  Average on-board energy storage capacity: 20 kWh. Of these:
  Half will be parked and connected to grid at any time 6am-8pm.
  Average stored energy available in each parked vehicle: 10 kWh.
  Average charge/discharge rate of each parked vehicle: 10 kW.
This implies an available resource of up to:
  2.5 GW power instantly available on demand.
  2.5 GWh stored energy instantly available on demand.
  By resorting to the plug-in hybrids’ on-board generators, much more
    energy would be available.
All of this would be paid for by the motorist (although distributors
should pay for the parking charge/discharge infrastructure).

                                                   Hunwick Consultants
 Plug-in hybrid-based energy storage system.
 Case 1: Power spot price <$25/MWh.


AC mains

               Plug


                                                            Parked




                                             Charge
                                  DC bus
                   Power                                    plug-in
                conditioning                                hybrid-
                and control                                 electric
                                                            vehicle
   On-board                                Energy
   generator   Power to/from
                                           storage
               drivetrain (off)

                                                      Hunwick Consultants
 Plug-in hybrid-based energy storage system.
 Case 2: Power spot price >$100/MWh.


AC mains


               Plug


                                                               Parked
                                  DC bus




                                             Discharge
                   Power                                       plug-in
                conditioning                                   hybrid-
                and control                                    electric
                                                               vehicle
   On-board                                Energy
   generator   Power to/from
                                           storage
               drivetrain (off)

                                                         Hunwick Consultants
 Plug-in hybrid-based energy storage system.
 Case 3: Power spot price >$300/MWh.


AC mains

               Plug


                                                            Parked
                                  DC bus
                   Power                                    plug-in
                                                            hybrid-




                                             Charge
                conditioning
                and control                                 electric
                                                            vehicle
   On-board                                Energy
   generator   Power to/from
                                           storage
               drivetrain (off)

                                                      Hunwick Consultants
     Net new NSW electricity contribution by energy
           sources considered. Year 2015
        Contribution in 2015   Average cost in 2008   CO2 emissions/
              GWh sent out      $/MWh sent out        GWh net, ‘000t

Upgrades              3,000           30              920
Hydropower            Small           50              Small
Natural gas           2,500           45              350
Nuclear power            Nil          60              Small
New renewables:
  Biomass               200           60              Small
  Solar (thermal & PV) 100           150              Small
  Wind                1,200           65              Small
Supply from existing
   (2005) plant      75,000

TOTAL                82,000
Demand (Medium)      87,000

Shortfall             5,000          <30 (coal)       780 (USC coal)

                                                         Hunwick Consultants
Whither the base-load power?
 For the next decade at least, coal promises the
  cheapest electricity; for NSW, and much of Australia:
  <$30/MWh sent out.
 Within 10-15 years, CCS retrofitting will be feasible,
  increasing electricity cost by around $10-15/MWh s.o.
 A state of the art power station would reduce GHG
  emissions/MWh by 15% cf. best Australian practice.
 Alternatives (including do nothing) promise higher cost
  electricity, hence less money for other things.
 Alternatives (including do nothing) on balance would be
  detrimental to the NSW economy, and for the global
  environment.
NSW should be more supportive of its major resource

                                         Hunwick Consultants
                                     NSW electrical energy demand and supply projections to 2020
                        115,000
                                                                                                                                      Fourth coal
                                                                                                                                      unit on line
                        110,000


                        105,000                                                                                       Third coal
                                                                                                                     unit on line

                        100,000
                                                                                               Second
Sent-out energy (GWh)




                                                                                            coal unit on
                         95,000                                                                      line


                                                                             First coal
                         90,000
                                                                            unit on line


                         85,000                        CCGT unit
                                                         on line
                                                                                                              Low growth demand scenario
                         80,000
                                     Upgrades                                                                 Medium growth demand scenario
                         75,000                                                                               High growth demand scenario


                         70,000
                              2005     2006     2007   2008   2009   2010   2011     2012    2013      2014   2015   2016      2017    2018     2019   2020
                                                                                Year ending June 30




                                                                                                                               Hunwick Consultants
                                           Greenhouse gas intensity of NSW generation options

                        1.00
                                   Average, with fourth coal unit
                                   Average, with third coal unit
                        0.98       Average, with second coal unit
                                   Average, with one coal unit
                        0.96       Average, with CCGT unit
Tonnes CO2-e/MWh s.o.




                                   Average, with upgrades etc.
                        0.94       Average, 2005 capacity only


                        0.92


                        0.90


                        0.88


                        0.86


                        0.84
                            2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
                                                                    Year


                                                                                           Hunwick Consultants
                                              Greenhouse gas emissions from NSW generation options
                                  100



                                   95

                                                  Total, with fourth coal unit
                                                  Total, with third coal unit
Emissions, million tonnes CO2-e




                                   90
                                                  Total, with second coal unit
                                                  Total, with one coal unit
                                                  Total, with CCGT unit
                                   85
                                                  Total, with upgrades etc.
                                                  Total, 2005 capacity only

                                   80



                                   75



                                   70



                                   65
                                     2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
                                                                                 Year

                                                                                                Hunwick Consultants

				
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posted:7/31/2011
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