Energy Efficiency by xiuliliaofz

VIEWS: 3 PAGES: 15

									         Energy Futures:
incremental or revolutionary change?

                 Dr Mark Hinnells
          Environmental Change Institute
                University of Oxford
                       Key issues


• Scale and urgency of the challenge
• Policy framework to which society needs to be responding
• we're not getting the scale and urgency of this ..and hence
  the scale (and urgency) of the opportunity
• Are there sectoral issues? the building stock
The context: IPCC

            •   Warming of the climate system is
                unequivocal… already seen +1ºC
                rise
            •   Most of the observed increase in
                temperature since the mid-20th
                century is very likely due to the
                observed increase in
                anthropogenic greenhouse gas
                concentrations
            •   Discernible human influences now
                extend to other aspects of climate
            •   Projection is +0.2ºC per decade
                (range +1.8-4ºC by 2100)

                 http://www.ipcc.ch/
                       The Stern Review

• There is still time to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, if
  we take strong action now
• The scientific evidence is overwhelming: climate change is a serious
  global threat, and demands an urgent global response
• If no action is taken concentrations of greenhouse gases could double
  compared to pre-industrial levels by 2035, with average temperature
  rise > 2°C and more than a 50% chance of > 5°C
• the benefits of action far outweigh the costs of not acting. Cost of not
  acting 5-20% GDP. Costs of acting around 1% of global GDP each
  year
• The investment that takes place in the next 10-20 years will have a
  profound effect on the climate in the second half of this century and in
  the next

    www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/
              The Climate Change Bill

• Will make a 60% reduction by 2050 and a 26 - 32% reduction by 2020
  legally binding
• five year “carbon budgets”, set at least 15 years ahead, to provide
  clarity on the UK’s pathway
• New enabling powers for further measures
• The Committee on Climate Change to provide an annual independent
  progress report to Parliament
• Expected to become law by Easter 2008
• May need to be more rapid short term cuts, or an overall an 80%
  cut, because of failure to act in 1990’s

   http://www.defra.gov.uk/news/latest/2007/climate-0313.htm
                               Buildings
• Residential, commercial, Industrial, and public buildings account
  for a huge proportion of individual corporate and national wealth
     – Housing wealth accounts for around 40 percent of net wealth of UK
       households, almost twice the percentage represented by pension wealth
     – Returns on commercial property in the UK, as measured by IPD
       (Investment Property Data Bank), rivalled or outpaced gilt and equity
       returns over the last twenty years

•   Change WILL affect property values

•   Adaptation: overheating means a less valuable property?

•   Mitigation: Buildings account for half UK CO2 emissions, and may need to be
    more than half the solution. An inefficient property will come to be seen as a
    less valuable property?
           The level of change needed

   Achieving the target against an expected 33% increase in
   dwellings by 2050 plus more heat, more hot water, and more
   appliances means:

• New dwellings close to zero carbon
• Insulate everything, walls (cavity, internal, external), floor, loft, better
  windows, hot water tanks
• Reduce airflow through gaps (floorboards, skirting boards, doors,
  pipes)
• Significant uptake of Low or Zero Carbon technologies- around 1
  per home (combined heat and power, solar PV, solar thermal, heat
  pumps, biomass)
• Halving of projected lights and appliances consumption
                   Market Transformation of appliances
                   60%
                                                                             Before intervention


                   50%                                                       After labelling
                                                                                                   • 200 mandatory
                                                                             Market
                                                                             transformation 1997
                                                                                                     labelling and standards
                   40%
                                                                                                     schemes globally over
% models offered




                                                                                                     several decades
                   30%
                                                                                                   • Residential and non-
                                       Rebates
                                                                                                     residential equipment
                   20%
                         Technology                                                                  and lighting
                         procurement

                   10%                                                                             • Further and faster with
                                                                    Efficiency
                                                                    standard
                                                                                                     Energy Using Products
                   0%                                                                                Directive
                     A++       A+      A     B       C        D          E         F           G
                                            Energy label category
       The transformation of new homes

•   Combination of information, incentives and                                       The potential for Zero Carbon Homes to
    regulation acting in concert                                                                       2020

•   Labelling – Home Energy Rating part of
    HIP from August 2007 onwards                                                  250,000

•   Zero stamp duty for zero carbon homes                                                                new build
                                                                                                          homes




                                                   No. of homes built per annum
    estimated to be worth up to £400M by 2012                                     200,000

    (will impact London and South East
    strongest, where exemption worth most)                                        150,000
                                                                                                                     near-zero
                                                                                                                      carbon
•   Building regulations – to be revised 2011,                                                                        homes

    and 2016 to achieve zero carbon                                               100,000

•   Additional local requirements eg planning or
    Housing Association requirements.                                              50,000

•   Change used to be incremental…
                                                                                        0
•   Now Builders are bewildered. Don’t know



                                                                                      20 7
                                                                                      2008
                                                                                      20 9
                                                                                      2010
                                                                                      20 1
                                                                                      2012
                                                                                      20 3
                                                                                      2014
                                                                                      20 5
                                                                                      2016
                                                                                      20 7
                                                                                      2018
                                                                                      20 9
                                                                                        20
                                                                                        0

                                                                                        0

                                                                                        1

                                                                                        1

                                                                                        1

                                                                                        1

                                                                                        1
    how to get there

                                                                                      20
Transforming existing homes:

            •   Labelling – Home Energy Rating
                part of HIP from August 2007
                onwards
            •   Financial instruments: (Budget
                2007: by the end of the next
                decade… where practically possible,
                all homes will have achieved their
                cost-effective energy efficiency
                potential.) Opportunity for EEC and
                or mortgage finance
            •   Building regulations could apply at
                point of sale
            •   Change yet to happen but could be
                rapid
                                                             Potential for microgeneration
                                                                        in homes
                                                                                                                                       •   Based on a raft of UK potentials
                      120                                                                                                        115
                                                                                                                                           studies
                                   Scenario A
                      100          Scenario B                                                                                          •   Combustion based opportunities
% Ownership by 2050




                                   Scenario C                                                                                              - generate heat and maybe
                      80                                                                                                                   electricity. Community heating is for
                                                                                                                                           dense urban communities. Micro
                      60
                                                                                                                                           CHP is suburban or rural.
                      40
                                                   30
                                                                                                                                       •   Rooftop opportunities –capture
                                                             20
                                                                       25                                                                  wind or sun. Low cost opportunity
                      20                                                         15
                                                                                                                                           in new build or when a roof is
                                                                                             10
                                  5                                                                    5                  5
                                                                                                                                           replaced, or converted.
                       0
                                                                                                                                       •   Rural opportunities –location
                            Engine


                                           Fuel Cell



                                                        Heating




                                                                                       Integrated



                                                                                                    pumps


                                                                                                                Biomass
                                                                   Thermal


                                                                               PV
                            Stirling




                                                        District




                                                                                                     Heat
                                                                                        Building
                                                                    Solar




                                                                                          wind




                                                                                                                                           dictates availability eg biomass, or
                                                                                                                                           heat pumps
                                       combustion                            rooftop                    rural                 total
                                                                                                                                       •   Change yet to happen but could be
                                                                                                                                           rapid
                             Low and Zero Carbon technologies

                       700
                                     grid_electricity         • Change may be
                       600
                                     elec_gen_wind              organisational
                                     elec_gen_pv
                                                              • Eg in new build, Energy
                       500           elec_gen_chp_DH            Services Companies might
Energy Sources (TWh)




                                     elec_gen_chp_fuel_cell     design build finance operate
                       400           elec_gen_chp_stirling      and maintain all energy
                                     elec_hp                    infrastructure, and
                       300           solar_thermal              conventional energy suppliers
                                     biomass_chp                have a much reduced role
                       200
                                     biomass_boiler           • Change yet to happen but
                                     gas_chp                    could be rapid. Energy
                       100
                                     gas_boiler
                                                                Services Directive, new build
                                     solid/oil
                                                                incentives
                        0
                         96

                       20 1
                         06

                       20 1
                         16

                       20 1
                         26
                         31

                       20 6
                         41
                         46
                         0


                         1


                         2




                         3
                       19
                       20


                       20


                       20


                       20
                       20


                       20
        Will energy rating affect values?


• For homes, location, size, condition are obviously key determinants
  of price. With label, people discount inefficient homes by the cost of
  refurbishment
• May affect differential valuation of new build over existing homes
  (new build is much lower carbon)
• For non-domestic build, expected to affect rental values and thus
  capital values
• Range of evidence with more to follow with implementation of label
            Key issues - summary
• Scale and urgency of the challenge – the next two decades
  will make a difference
• Policy framework to which society needs to be responding –
  Stern, Climate Change Bill, Market Transformation
• Building stock vital to wealth and wellbeing
• Change revolutionary not incremental. Over last 3 decades
  improvements in efficiency outweighed by increased service
  demands. Cant be the case anymore
• New ways of doing things
   – New technologies (insulation, metering and control,
       microgeneration)
   – New business models (Transformation of building industry
       in 8 years. Mortgage finance. ESCos)
   – New build, refurbishment, residential and non-residential
               Watch this space…

•   www.eci.ox.ac.uk/research/energy/bmt.php
•   Building Market Transformation
•   Policy scenarios to deliver change
•   Residential on website, non-residential by Christmas

								
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