Purchase Forecast - PDF


Sales of 2,350 new civil helicopters through 2008 predicted by Honeywell Aerospace
            oneywell’s sixth Turbine-             likely to increase about 8 percent in      Aerospace. "Survey data also indicates

 H          Powered Civil Helicopter
            Purchase Outlook projects
            deliveries of approximately
                                                  2004 compared to 2003.

                                                 • Helicopter sales during the five-year
                                                                                             that the decision to acquire new helicop-
                                                                                             ters is driven primarily by age of current
                                                                                             aircraft and an operator’s desire for
2,350 new civil use helicopters during             period 2004-2008 are predicted to be      newer technology, bigger cabins and
the five-year period 2004-2008, driven in          6.8 percent greater than in the five-     more payload. Along with new model
part by increased demand for light                 year period 1999-2003.                    introductions, these continue to be
single and intermediate twin-engine                                                          important factors supporting demand,"
models offering newer technology.                • Helicopter sales are forecast to enjoy    Brubaker said. "We are optimistic about
   Corporate, emergency medical serv-              a 2 percent annual compounded             the long range prospects for helicopters
ices (EMS) and law enforcement heli-               growth rate during the 11-year period     in this diverse global economy."
copters combined are expected to                   2004-2014.                                   The near-term increase in demand is
account for almost two thirds of all new                                                     also driven by continuing strong world-
civil rotorcraft sales during the five-year        "The results from the 2004 Honeywell      wide demand for corporate, EMS law
forecast period.                                Aerospace survey identified engine           enforcement and utility helicopters,
   Some highlights revealed by the              power, safety/crashworthiness, useful        bonus depreciation in the United States,
annual survey of helicopter operators’          load, aircraft price and direct operating    a strong U.S. economy and booming
purchase expectations are:                      costs as the top five criteria that opera-   economic conditions in Asia.
                                                tors consider when selecting new heli-          In North America, law enforcement
 • Although helicopter sales in 2003            copters," said Lynn Brubaker, Vice           received 30 percent of all mentions this
   were flat compared to 2002, they are         President, Honeywell Commercial              year. It remained the most frequently
                                                                                             mentioned helicopter use segment
                                                                                             although this represented a decline from
                                                                                             almost 40 percent in 2003. One possible
                                                                                             reason was that expected funds to
CIVIL TURBINE POWERED HELICOPTER MARKET                                                      purchase new helicopters for increased
OUTLOOK PROJECTS HIGHER DELIVERIES                                                           homeland defense and boarder patrol
                                                                                             requirements never materialized.
                                                                                                EMS applications, meanwhile, held
                                2500   2,200            2,350                                steady at almost 30 percent of planned
                                                                                             new purchases in North America, while
                                                                                             planned corporate purchases fell again
                                                                                             to 18.4 percent of the total.
                                2000                                                            "Honeywell Aerospace’s product span

                                                                 I NCR
                                                                                             for this segment and our ability to offer
                                                                                             customers mechanical and avionics
                                                                                             systems, turbine engines and auxiliary
                                1500                                EAS
                                                                               E             power units, give us a uniquely broad
                                                                                             industry capability as a supplier for both
                                                                                             helicopter manufacturers and operators,"
                                                                                             Brubaker said.
                                                                                             PURCHASE EXPECTATIONS
                                                                                             The sixth worldwide survey of civil heli-
                                500                                                          copter operators’ future purchase expec-
                                                                                             tations indicates a strengthening of
                                                                                             demand for new aircraft over the next five
                                                                                             years despite the fact that expectations
                                   0                                                         fell compared to last year’s survey. The
                                       '99-03          '04-08                                2003 results were high, and were driven ✈

62   WORLD AIRCRAFT SALES MAGAZINE – May 2004                www.AvBuyer.com                                       Aircraft Index see Page 2
                                         HONEYWELL HELICOPTER FORECAST 2

by a spike in European expectations for                                                  for twin-engine machines with a 60                                 Aviation Regulation (JAR) restricting
new twin-engine helicopter requirements                                                  percent preference.                                                single-engine aircraft operations over
mandated by laws now in effect.                                                                                                                             populated areas. Many European
   In this year’s survey, only about 10                                                  NORTH AMERICA: North America                                       operators had planned to take delivery of
percent of the models mentioned for                                                      continues to have the greatest demand                              new twins prior to the new rules coming
future purchase were for "all new or deriv-                                              for new helicopters, accounting for                                into effect in January of 2004.
ative aircraft." This is down significantly                                              almost 46 percent of expected future                                   Survey responses suggest that about
from prior surveys where 40 percent to 50                                                purchases. Expectations fell modestly in                           23 percent of all new turbine-powered
percent of model mentions usually fall                                                   this year’s North American survey                                  helicopter sales will occur in Europe
into the "new" classification. The survey                                                compared to last year, with most of the                            during the forecast period. European
continues to show that there was little                                                  fall-off traced to reduced expectations for                        operators continue to cite evolving regu-
trade-up expectation among the world                                                     law enforcement aircraft to support                                latory requirements regarding the types
operator base. More than 80 percent of                                                   Homeland Defense and Border Patrol                                 of equipment that can be flown within
new purchases will be made to replace                                                    missions.                                                          populated areas as a significant factor in
older aircraft in the same size/capability                                                   Survey responses indicate that North                           replacement demand. Accordingly, close
and price class. Additionally, about 7                                                   America will predominate in the                                    to two thirds of future European demand
percent of operators plan to trade-down to                                               purchase of light single-engine helicop-                           for new turbine helicopters is still
less expensive machines.                                                                 ters. On average more than 60 percent of                           expected to be twin-engine models.
   Buyer interest remains healthy overall                                                future new aircraft purchases in this                                  Aircraft age, desire for new/newer
and there is no indication that a demand                                                 region are expected to be light singles,                           technology, more lift/power capability,
decline is likely to occur in the near                                                   and with no regulatory activity on the                             cabin size/comfort, need for two engines,
future. These findings are based on inputs                                               horizon likely to change this.                                     more range and lower noise requirements
from more than 900 flight departments in                                                     Aircraft age, cabin size, newer tech-                          were most frequently mentioned as
North America, Latin America, Europe,                                                    nology, payload/useful load, speed and                             reasons for planning a new helicopter
Asia, the Middle East and Africa.                                                        engine power were the most frequently                              purchase. The corporate use category was
   Regulatory initiatives and proposals                                                  mentioned factors by North American                                most frequently mentioned by European
around the world are continuing to stimu-                                                operators as to their reasons for planning                         respondents, followed by utility, EMS,
late significant interest in twin-engine                                                 to purchase new aircraft.                                          offshore oil, law enforcement and televi-
helicopters in some regions. In Europe,                                                                                                                     sion news.
almost two thirds of all survey expecta-                                                 EUROPE: The survey showed a
tions are for twin-engine models, while in                                               pronounced decline in European                                     ASIA, OCEANIA, AFRICA AND MIDDLE
North America, where there are no                                                        purchase expectations, from 39.5 percent                           EAST: On the basis of the percentage of
current or pending regulations requiring                                                 fleet replacement/expansion in 2003 to                             fleet to be replaced or expanded, Asia,
twin-engine aircraft, 62 percent of                                                      18.7 percent in 2004. All of the declines                          Oceania, Africa and the Middle East
planned purchases will be single-engine                                                  were in light and intermediate multi-                              together have the highest purchase
craft. Asia, The Middle East, Africa and                                                 engine machines. The primary reason for                            expectations of all world regions.
Oceania are potential strong growth areas                                                the 2003 spike was the upcoming Joint                              Operators in these regions expect to              ✈

                                              FIVE-YEAR FLEET REPLACEMENT/                                                                          PERCENTAGE OF NEW
                                              EXPANSION PLANS                                                                                       MODEL SURVEY MENTIONS -
                                                                                                                                                    2004 SURVEY
                                         25                                                                                                    40

                                                    Expand                                    3.7%                                                                                              35.7%
                                                    Replace                                                                                    35
                                                                                                                     PERCENT OF 544 MENTIONS

                                                                                     4.4%                                                      25
                                                    5.4%      4.6%
                                                                         0.8%                                                                  20
                                         10                                                                                                    15            13.8%

                                                   11.9%      12.0%     11.2%        13.8%   20.8%     15.9%                                   10
                                                                                                                                                     7.7%                              7.2%

                                          0                                                                                                     0
                                                   1998       1999       2000        2001     2003     2004                                          2004     2005    2006    2007    2008       2009

64                                        WORLD AIRCRAFT SALES MAGAZINE – May 2004                    www.AvBuyer.com                                                             Aircraft Index see Page 2

purchase helicopters equal to almost 22         LATIN AMERICA: Latin American expec-           ANECDOTAL OPERATOR
percent of their current fleets during the      tations increased noticeably in this           COMMENTS
next five years for replacement and fleet       year’s survey after falling sharply in         Operators in this year’s survey shared
expansion. This compares to 18.7                2003. Still, Latin America has the lowest      their concerns over factors affecting their
percent in Europe, 16.2 percent in North        fleet replacement and expansion                aircraft missions, flying hours and new
America and 14 percent in Latin                 percentage of all world regions, and also      aircraft purchase decisions.
America. Over the next five years,              represents the smallest number of
Honeywell estimates that nearly 23              purchases for new helicopters.                  • In North America, the top factors of
percent of total world new helicopter              This region is expected to account for         most concern to operators this year
sales will be to customers in Asia,             only around 9 percent of predicted                were: the impact of temporary flight
Oceania, Africa and the Middle East.            demand for new helicopters. More than             restrictions (TFR’s), flight department
   About 60 percent of future demand in         80 percent of expected new aircraft               budget cuts (especially Government-
these regions is expected to be for multi-      demand in the region is for single-               related), increasing insurance costs
engine craft. However, unlike in Europe,        engine helicopters. Aircraft age is the           and local noise ordinances.
the demand is expected to be much               dominant reason for expecting to replace
more skewed towards intermediate                current aircraft with new ones,                 • European operators’ concerns focused
machines, which are predicted to                accounting for 88.5 percent of                    on new twin-engine requirements,
account for more than 40 percent of             comments. The next most frequently                economic conditions, impact of JAR or
expected demand in the region.                  mentioned reason was new/newer tech-              European Air and Space
   Operators cited aircraft age, need for       nology, but this accounted for only 10            Administration (EASA) regulations and
new/newer technology, cabin                     percent of responses.                             uncertainty over potential new/unpre-
size/comfort, need for more                        Latin American operators expressed             dictable regulations.
payload/useful load, more engine power,         deep concerns over poor economic
need for twin-engine aircraft and need          conditions and taxes or threats of new          • Latin American operators were prima-
for more range as key reasons for               aviation-targeted taxes. Although some            rily concerned about poor
replacing current helicopters. Close to         currencies in Latin America have gained           economic/business conditions in the
32 percent of expected purchases will be        against the dollar (e.g. Brazil), others are      region, threats of higher taxes and
for offshore oil applications, dramatically     negatively affected by the decline in the         political uncertainty.
higher than any other region, while             dollar. Latin American operators said
corporate applications were also                that their flight department budgets are        • In Asia, and the rest of the world,
mentioned frequently by respondents in          tight, which is affecting the use of their        booming economies, improving busi-
this region.                                    current aircraft and potential purchases.         ness climates and the falling U.S.
                                                                                                  dollar were all seen as positives for
                                                                                                  future purchases of new helicopters.

FIVE-YEAR WORLD MARKET FOR NEW                                                                 CIVIL TURBINE HELICOPTER
                                                                                               SURVEY RESULTS
TURBINE-POWERED HELICOPTERS                                                                    The 2004 Turbine Powered Civil
2,600 TOTAL AIRCRAFT                                                                           Helicopter Outlook is based on
                                                                                               Honeywell’s first quarter 2004 customer
                           NORTH                                                               expectations survey, an assessment of
                          AMERICA                                                              consensus forecasts, review of factory
                                                                45.6%                          delivery rates and analysis of future new
                                                                                               helicopter introductions. The 2004
                                                                                               outlook excludes military demand for civil
                                                                                               helicopters for the first time, resulting in a
                                                                                               ‘pure’ civil number.
EUROPE                                                                                             This year’s Purchase Expectations
                                                                                               Survey queried 949 chief pilots and flight
     22.7%                                                                                     department managers of companies oper-
                                                                                               ating nearly 3,047 helicopters worldwide.
                                                                                               The survey detailed the types of aircraft
                                                                                               operated and assessed specific plans to
                                                                                               replace or add to the fleet with new
                                                                                                   The 2004 outlook presents a snapshot
                                                                                               of the helicopter business at a point in
                                                                                               time and does not reflect unforeseen
                                                                                               events such as an unexpected economic
                                                                                               contraction, sharp increases in fuel costs,

            LATIN AMERICA                                    ASIA, OCEANIA,                    a fuel crisis, imposition of heavy user fees
                                                                                               or other unfavorable regulations/taxes
                         9.2%                                   AFRICA,                        that could affect results in future years.
                                                              MIDDLE EAST                      Demand for new helicopters is also
                                                                       22.5%                   highly price sensitive. Decisions by           ✈

66   WORLD AIRCRAFT SALES MAGAZINE – May 2004                www.AvBuyer.com                                           Aircraft Index see Page 2

aircraft manufacturers to offer discounts                        in the 2003 survey (from 30.7 percent in                       America, while falling slightly in other
or raise prices can significantly influence                      the 2001 survey to 18.6 percent in 2003),                      world regions. Asia, Oceania, Africa and
sales activity on affected models.                               and then again in the 2004 survey to 13.3                      Middle East operators were the most
                                                                 percent. Expectations fell in all world                        interested in this class of helicopter,
DEMAND BY HELICOPTER SIZE                                        regions except Asia, Oceania, Africa and                       selecting intermediate twins as a new
CATEGORY                                                         the Middle East where there was a slight                       purchase choice more than 40 percent of
LIGHT SINGLE-ENGINE HELICOPTERS:                                 increase.                                                      the time.
Operators continue to express a strong                               The largest regional demand for light                         The most popular models mentioned
preference for light single-engine heli-                         twins will be in Europe, with 25 percent                       included the Bell 412, and 430 models as
copters in their purchase expectations,                          of total regional purchases. Demand for                        well as the Eurocopter BK117/EC145,
naming this class of aircraft 50.3 percent                       light twins will be small in North America                     AS365 series, the EC155, the Sikorsky S-
of the time, up slightly from a year ago.                        (7 percent) and Latin America (2.6                             76 and Agusta/Bell AB139.
    Popular helicopters within this class                        percent). Asian, African and Middle
include the Bell 206 and 407, Agusta                             Eastern expectations for light twin-engine                     HEAVY LIFT HELICOPTERS: Single or
A119, Eurocopter EC120, AS350/EC130                              helicopter purchases increased from 10                         multi-engine heavy lift helicopters
and RDM MD 500 and MD 600 series.                                percent a year ago to 13.6 percent of                          continue to exhibit relatively low
Regionally, the light single class is highly                     projected demand in the current outlook.                       purchase expectation scores compared to
popular in North America, cited in 62                                Much of the interest in Asia and North                     the other classes of aircraft, although
percent of new purchase expectations.                            America is for the larger intermediate                         their share of mentions increased to 7
Latin American operators also reported a                         class of aircraft, reflecting a desire for                     percent in this year’s survey compared to
strong preference for this class of equip-                       more payload, speed and range.                                 2003 when it was 3 percent.
ment with 82 percent of regional demand.                                                                                           As discussed in our previous outlooks,
                                                                 INTERMEDIATE TWIN HELICOPTERS:                                 this low level of demand is to be
LIGHT TWINS: The next purchase expec-                            New intermediate twin-engine helicop-                          expected, both as a function of higher
tation grouping for new helicopters                              ters as a class received an all time high                      prices for larger helicopters as well as the
remains the light multi-engine class,                            six-year purchase expectation ranking,                         more narrowly defined applications such
exemplified by the Bell 427, Eurocopter                          rising to 29.1 percent of all mentions in                      craft typically serve. Stronger demand for
EC135, AS355, Agusta A109 series and                             the survey – an increase of 1 percent over                     this class aircraft often stems from
RDM MD 902.                                                      the 2003 outlook.                                              governmental or ‘Para public’ sources
    Expectations for the future purchase of                          Interest in the intermediate twin class                    outside the scope of the survey.
aircraft in this segment during the next                         helicopter increased significantly against                        Projected trade-up patterns remained
five years fell sharply and unexpectedly                         levels reported last year in North                             remarkably consistent compared to            ✈

60%                                                                                                                                                             1998

                          54.1                                                                                                                                  1999
                                        49.9 50.3
50%                47.9                                                                                                                                         2001
                                 43.7                                                                                                                           2003

30%                                                                                                                                                      29.1
                                                                                     27.4 28.2                                                    28.2
                                                                                                                             24.3          23.7

20%                                                                                                     18.6
                                                                                                                      16.1          16.6

10%                                                                                                                                                                                       7.2

                                                    0.6 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.2                                                                                     0.2 0.2 0.6
                       Light                            Intermediate                     Light                                Intermediate                             Heavy
                   Single-Engine                        Single-Engine                 Multi-Engine                            Multi-Engine                           Multi-Engine

68       WORLD AIRCRAFT SALES MAGAZINE – May 2004                             www.AvBuyer.com                                                                      Aircraft Index see Page 2

previous survey results, with operators                                        of all demand in Latin America is for                 demand. Europe is next with a modest 8.5
electing to replace aircraft with the same                                     corporate-use machines. North America                 percent.
size class currently operated more than                                        has the largest demand for corporate-use                 As discussed earlier, the primary
80 percent of the time. Trade-ups to larger                                    helicopters, followed closely by Europe,              reason why expected Law Enforcement
helicopters and trade-downs to smaller                                         Latin America and Asia, Oceania, Africa               demand fell in North America is that
aircraft were chosen just 12.3 percent and                                     and the Middle East.                                  promised Homeland Defense funding for
6.8 percent of the time, respectively. The                                        Although mentioned second most                     new helicopters never materialized.
strong propensity to trade within                                              frequently as a use category for new                     Expected demand for utility helicop-
segments (rather than trading up) leads                                        aircraft purchases, planned purchases of              ters fell from 25 percent of the total in
to longer ownership intervals for aircraft                                     new helicopters for EMS applications fell             2003 to 15 percent in 2004. The highest
purchased new, which tends to have a                                           to 19 percent of total demand from 27                 expected demand for utility helicopters
dampening effect on long-term demand.                                          percent in the 2003 survey. Almost all                was measured in Europe and North
                                                                               demand for EMS helicopters is in North                America with 81 percent of expected total
DEMAND BY PLANNED USE OF                                                       America and Europe.                                   future purchases. Latin American opera-
NEW TURBINE HELICOPTERS                                                                                                              tors were the least focused on this
CORPORATE AND EMERGENCY                                                        LAW ENFORCEMENT AND UTILITY:                          segment with only 2 percent of projected
MEDICAL SERVICES: Corporate and EMS                                            Expectations for the purchase of new                  new demand in the region assigned to
were the leading applications for which                                        helicopters for Law Enforcement usage                 utility applications.
operators said they would purchase new                                         fell from 27 percent of total demand last
helicopters in the 2004 survey. The                                            year to 16.2 percent in 2004. The largest             OFFSHORE OIL SUPPORT: The offshore
Corporate segment, the largest use cate-                                       drops in demand occurred in North                     oil production and exploration segment’s
gory, garnered 29 percent of the projected                                     America and Europe. Geographically,                   share of new aircraft requirements
new turbine helicopter sales. Substantial                                      North America is the dominant area for                increased two percentage points to a 2004
demand exists for new corporate use heli-                                      Law Enforcement helicopter purchases,                 survey level of 10.6 percent, most likely
copters in all world regions. Three fourths                                    with an estimated 81 percent of world                 as a result of higher oil prices. Regional ✈

Does not add up to 100% due to multiple uses for some aircraft
                               35                  34%

                               30                        29%                         29%
                                                                                                 27%                     27%
                                                                                           26%                                              2004           26%
                                                                                                                   25%                                                 25%

                               20                                                                      19%

                               15                                                                                                                                            14%

                                                                    11%        11%
                               10                                         9%


                                 5                                                                                                                   4%
                                                                                                                                            3% 3%

                                            Corporate            Offshore Oil               EMS              Law Enforcement           Television News            Utility

70                             WORLD AIRCRAFT SALES MAGAZINE – May 2004                     www.AvBuyer.com                                                Aircraft Index see Page 2

interest in new helicopters for this                           America, Asia, Oceania, Africa and the                  percent and 98 percent of respondents
industry continues to be highest in                            Middle East but fell in Europe and Latin                expect their utilization to be the same or
Asia/Africa/ME at 31.5 percent followed                        America.                                                greater than the prior 12 month period.
by Europe at 11.3 percent.                                        Residual values for pre-owned heli-                  Anticipated growth in aircraft usage by
   In the longer term, Asian demand                            copters have been relatively stable over                Asia, Oceania, Africa and Middle
could grow even more as regional                               the past several years. It is not                       Eastern operators over the next 12
economies grow robustly, stimulating                           surprising to see that purchasing interest              months is slightly less than all of the
exploration and eventual production                            has remained relatively steady compared                 other world areas.
requiring ongoing logistical support.                          to the very strong levels measured in                       Based on survey responses and the
Survey data suggests that there is only                        2001.                                                   fleet distribution in each region,
limited demand for new offshore oil                                                                                    Honeywell projects that flying hours will
support helicopters in the Americas.                           TURBINE HELICOPTER                                      remain at relatively healthy levels, with
   Operators in other segments such as                         UTILIZATION RATES                                       some modest growth possible depending
Television News continue to report                             Overall, respondents reported using                     on regional economic conditions. This
projected requirements for new helicop-                        their turbine-powered helicopters                       assumes that no new legislation or regu-
ters over the next five years at levels well                   between 400 and 600 hours during the                    lations are enacted that would further
below the applications discussed above.                        past 12 months. This varies by region,                  restrict airspace access or create new
Overall, this business segment is                              with the highest utilization rates in                   economic burdens on operators.
projected to comprise less than 3.7                            North America and the lowest in Latin
percent of the new helicopter purchases                        America. Compared to the 2003 survey,                   This article contains forward-looking state-
anticipated in the 2004-2008 period.                           on average, usage remained constant in                  ments as defined in Section 21E of the
                                                               North America but was down sharply in                   Securities Exchange Act of 1934, including
USED HELICOPTERS: Roughly 20                                   most of the rest of the world.                          statements about future business operations,
percent of current fleets worldwide are                           Survey data clearly indicates that on                financial performance and market conditions.
projected to be replaced or expanded                           a global basis, the vast majority of opera-             Such forward-looking statements involve risks
with used helicopters over the next five                       tors plan to use their aircraft at least as             and uncertainties inherent in business fore-
years, up about two percentage points                          much as, or more than they did during                   casts as further described in our filings under
over the level reported in the 2003                            the past 12 months. In North America,                   the Securities Exchange Act.
survey. Expectations increased in North                        Latin America and Europe, between 93                    I More information from website: www.honeywell.com

                                          HISTORY                    FORECAST                                                               Segment Share
                     600                                                                                                                     of Deliveries
                                                                                                         HEAVY TWINS                                   6%


                     400                                                            INTERMEDIATE TWINS                                                26%

                     300                                                                                 LIGHT TWINS                                  17%

                     200                                                                           LIGHT SINGLES                                      51%



72           WORLD AIRCRAFT SALES MAGAZINE – May 2004                           www.AvBuyer.com                                                    Aircraft Index see Page 2

Shared By:
Description: Purchase Forecast document sample