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									Biochemical Platform Analysis

     Biochemical and Products Peer Review
                Andy Aden, P.E.
  National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)
               August 7-9, 2007
                                              Timeline                                       Barriers
                                         Start: October      1999               Biological Process Integration – All steps are
                                                                                 technically feasible, but integration of unit
                                         End: September 2012                     operations remains a key technical barrier
                                                                                 associated with large scale-up risks. Integration
                                                                                 is essential for characterizing the complex
                                                                                 interactions that exist between processing steps.

                                                                                Biochemical/Thermochemical Processing
                                                  Budget                         Integration – Integrating two platform processes
                                                                                 allows for increased energy efficiency of the
                                $1,000                                           biorefinery, however the risks associated with this
Thousands of Dollars per Year

                                                                               Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) – 2007 Design
                                                                               Idaho National Lab (INL) – Feedstock Interface
                                 $200                                          activities

                                   $0                                                          Stage
                                           FY05    FY06   FY07   FY08   FY09
                                                                 Mortgage      N/A - Appropriate Stage Gate Level of
                                                                               Analysis for Project State of Development
                                                                        Platform Goals

Advanced Energy Initiative: Make cellulosic ethanol cost competitive by 2012
    • Process Target: Competitive, moderate risk bioethanol technology tested at pilot scale (1 ton per
    • Cost Target: Data from integrated pilot operation combined with process design & cost estimate
      validates a $1.31 (2007$) per gallon ethanol selling price
    • R&D Plan: There is a well-defined R&D plan in place with multiple paths to success

Twenty in Ten: Reduce US gasoline usage by 20% in the next 10 years
    • Process Targets:
       •Process development for other feedstocks using “2012” technology
       •Begin advanced technology development to allow higher cost feeds to be used
    • Cost Targets and R&D plans under development

Long-term Goal: Replace 30% of 2004 transportation supply with biofuels by 2030
    • Process Targets:
       •Complete advanced technology development
       •Consolidated, simplified process using systems biology advances
       •Work with dedicated energy crops – high yielding, low conversion cost
       •Integrated Biorefinery designs
    • R&D Plan:
       •General plan developed
       •Office of Science BioEnergy Science Centers will influence detailed plan

Platform analysis:
Provides direction, focus and support to projects
       What are the barriers to low-cost biofuels?
            Technical, economic and environmental feasibility evaluations

Sets quantifiable targets to meet the goal
       What are the required targets to overcome the barriers?
            Program and Market target cases
            Sensitivities on process parameters and designs

Measures progress to the goal
       Are the targets being met?
       Where are remaining gaps/uncertainty?
            State of Technology cases
Appropriate Stage Gate Level of Analysis for Project Stage of
             Early Stage: Simple spreadsheet,
             back of the envelope estimates             Early Stage: Simple cash
             Mid Stage: Industry-relevant               flow analysis
             ASPENPlus™ process simulation              Mid Stage: Discounted cash
             Kinetic modeling and regression            flow rate of return analysis
             analysis tools


         Conceptual                              Capital and
                           Material and                              Economic
          Process                                Project Cost
                          Energy Balance                             Analysis
           Design                                 Estimates

                          Environmental /
                                                  Cost Target

$1.07/gallon is an appropriate target based on historical prices
                                                                                                                                         Cost Target
            $1.07 is equivalent to $30/bbl oil and $55/bbl without a subsidy
                                                                                    Ethanol prices corrected for 51¢/gal subsidy & energy content
                                                              Historical Gasoline

Product Prices (¢ per Gasoline Gallon Equivalent)




                                                                                                                       $1.07 per gallon ethanol


                                                          0   10           20            30          40           50          60          70        80
                                                                                    Crude Oil (WTI) Spot Price ($ per bbl)
                        2002 NREL Design Report
                                              • Documented one possible technology
                                              package for cost-effective production of
                                              ethanol from biomass via biochemical routes

                                              • Established a basis for comparison of other
                                              technology options with clear and transparent
                                              data and assumptions

                                              • Rigorous and detailed modeling performed
                                              to quantify the research targets necessary for
                                              achieving economic targets

                                              • Enabled the quantification of research
                                              progress made towards goals

                                              • Allowed for better industrial collaboration

                                              •Has undergone numerous peer reviews by
         Estimated Process Economics
      Plant Size: 2000 MT Dry Corn Stover/Day (Greenfield Site)

      Economic Parameter (Units, $2000)                        Value

                 Min. Ethanol Selling Price ($/gal)             $1.07

                   Ethanol Production (MM gal/yr)                69.3

                 Ethanol Yield (gal/dry ton stover)              89.7

                  Total Project Investment ($ MM)               $197
                    Total Installed Capital ($MM)               $114

                     TPI per Annual Gallon ($/gal)              $2.85
                     TIC per Annual Gallon ($/gal)              $1.64

                        Net Operating Costs ($/gal)             $0.58

* Assuming 100% equity financing and 10% Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
Why ethanol production costs should be a “dynamic” benchmark
                                                      $1.31         $?.??
                              $1.21                             Actual indices
                                                                only through
                                      2002 to                   2006.
   $1.07                              Inflation                 2007 index is
                                      Impact:                   extrapolated
              2000 to                 Adjusted
                                      For:                      Cost of steel
                                        • Feedstock             and other
                                                                items are
                                                                rapidly – could
                • Capital
                                                                be under-
                • Labor
                • Energy

  President’s AEI           President’s             President’s
  Goal:                     AEI Goal:               AEI Goal:
  $2000 Real                $2007 Real              $2007 Real
  dollars                   dollars                 dollars
  $35 feedstock             $35 feedstock           $44 feedstock
  (Corn stover)             (Corn stover)           (Corn stover)
          Development and quantification of technical barriers
                            Feedstock Variation                                  Enzyme Cost
                            Feedstock Quality
                            Feedstock Cost              Production

                                                       Enzymatic           fermentation         Product
        Pretreatment          Conditioning                                                                   Products
                                                       Hydrolysis           of C5 & C6         Recovery

                             Sugar Losses

                                                  Glucose Yield
       Xylose Yield
                                                  Solids Loading (titer)                        Residue
       Xylose Degradation
       Solids Loading
       Reactor Costs
                                                                     Ethanol Yields
                                                                     Ethanol Concentration
                                                                    Hydrolyzate Toxicity
    NREL priority

Hybrid Saccharification & Fermentation - HSF
          Development and quantification of technical barriers

                                                          2005                                             2012
                                                      Post Enzyme- 2007   2008    2009    2010    2011    Market
                                                      Subcontract                                         Target

Minimum Ethanol Selling Price                            $2.47                                            $1.31
Installed Capital per Annual Gallon                      $2.94                                            $1.83
Yield (Gallon/dry ton)                                    65                                                90
Feedstock Cost ($/dry ton)                                $53                                              $44
  Solids Loading (wt%)                                   30%       30%    30%     30%     30%     30%      30%
  Xylan to Xylose                                        63%       75%    75%     75%     85%     90%      90%
  Xylan to Degradation Products                          13%       13%     8%      6%      6%      5%       5%
  Xylose Sugar Loss                                      13%       11%     9%      7%      2%      1%      1%
  Glucose Sugar Loss                                     12%       12%     8%      6%      4%      2%      0%
Enzyme Contribution ($/gal EtOH)                         $0.32    $0.32   $0.32   $0.32   $0.16   $0.10   $0.10
Saccharification & Fermentation
  Total Solids Loading (wt%)                             20%       20%    20%     20%     20%     20%      20%
  Combined Saccharification & Fermentation Time (d)        7         7     7       7       5       3        3
  Overall Cellulose to Ethanol                           86%       85%    85%     85%     85%     85%      85%
  Xylose to Ethanol                                      76%       76%    80%     80%     80%     85%      85%
  Minor Sugars to Ethanol                                 0%        0%    40%     40%     80%     85%      85%
                               Barrier Areas for Cost Reduction
                              Improved Fermentation             Improved Enzymatic Hydrolysis
                              Improved Pretreatment             Reduced Feedstock Cost

                                $2.50                 2005 State of Technology
Cost of Cellulosic Ethanol,

        $ per gallon

                                                                                 Barriers to Lower Cost
                                                                                 • Feedstock Cost
                                                      AEI Cost Target
                                                                                 • Biomass Pretreatment
                                                                                 • Enzymatic Hydrolysis
                                $1.00                                            • Fermentation

                                                        Reduced Costs
                                $0.50                   Beyond 2012?

                                                  Sensitivity Analyses

         Plant Size (10,000:2,000:1,000 dry

                 Electricity Co-product Value
                ($0.06:$0.04:$0.00 per kWh)

            Feedstock Cost ($10:$30:$53 per
                       dry ton)

                           Cellulose Content

            Xylan Content (30%:21.1%:10%)

              Lignin Content (11%:18%25%)

                        Xylan to Xylose Yield

                     Cellulase Cost
             ($0.03:$0.10:$0.32/gal ethanol)

                    Cellulose to Glucose Yield

             Solids Loading in Saccharification

              Nutrients for Ethanol Production

                     Total Project Investment

                                          ($0.40)    ($0.30)     ($0.20)      ($0.10)    $0.00       $0.10        $0.20        $0.30           $0.40
                                                    Reduced Ethanol Selling Price                            Increased Ethanol Selling Price

*Values represent the Reduced Price impact parameter: Target Parameter: Increased Price impact parameter
                                            ($yr 2007)
                                                           Tracking Research Progress
                                                                                  Pre-initiative Targets
Minimum Ethanol Selling Price ($ per gal)

                                                                                  Advanced Energy Initiative





                                                    2000      2005        2010            2015                 2020
                                                                                  R&D Targets

               Key Activities to meet 2012 Target
R&D Area           Current                           2007                                      2012

Feedstock      Corn Stover          Determine which feedstock types will       Develop cost correlations for two
Interface                           be used in pioneer plants and have the     other feedstocks based on the corn
                                    potential to provide significant volumes   stover $1.31/gal baseline
                                    (>100 million tons/year)

Pretreatment   63% xylan yields     1) Achieve 75% xylose yield in             Achieve >90% xylan to xylose & <
               and 13% sugar        laboratory scale high solids               5% xylan degradation from corn
               degradation in       pretreatment reactor on corn stem          stover in integrated pilot operation
               continuous reactor   internode                                  with > 30% solids
               with >30% solids
                                    2) Define the relationships between
                                    pretreatment conditions and the
                                    chemical/ultrastructural changes in
                                    corn stover stems that result in
                                    biphasic xylan hydrolysis

Hydrolyzate    13% sugar losses                                                Reduce sugar losses in corn stover
Conditioning   in overliming                                                   hydrolyzate conditioning step to <
               conditioning step                                               1% in integrated pilot operation or
                                                                               eliminate need for conditioning
                                                                                  R&D Targets
                    Key Activities to meet 2012 Target
R&D Area                       Current                        2007                            2012

Enzyme Production       $0.32/gallon of Ethanol    Develop the first generation   Validate a $0.10/gal cost
                                                   computational model of         contribution of purchased
                                                   CBH I capable of               enzyme used in integrated
                                                   describing structure and       pilot operation
                                                   function, and verify CBH I
Enzymatic               > 85% Cellulose to                                        Demonstrate > 85% cellulose
Saccharification and    EtOH, > 75% xylose to                                     to EtOH, > 85% non-glucose
                        EtOH, 0% other sugars                                     sugar to EtOH in a total of 3
                        to EtOH in a total of 7                                   days in integrated pilot
                        days in lab system with                                   operation with > 20% total
                        > 20% total solids                                        solids

Integration/            Research state-of-          Complete integrated tests     Data from integrated pilot
                        technology utilizing       of pretreatment and            operation combined with
Modeling                current data and           enzymatic hydrolysis with      process design & cost
                        modeling shows a           existing fermentation          estimate validates a $1.31/gal
                        $2.47/gal ethanol          organisms at bench-scale       ethanol selling price and
                        selling price with total   on corn stover that validate   capital cost of $1.85/gal of
                        capital of $2.94/gal of    $0.125/lb sugars on path to    annual installed capacity for
                        annual installed           achieving $0.064/lb (2002$)    nth plant (adjusted to the
                        capacity                   in 2012                        current cost year from 2007$)
                                                                                  for corn stover
                                                                            Project Links
                                                                           Feedstock/Processing Interface
                                          >90% xylan to xylose &
                                                                           •Logistics (INL)
 Pretreatment                            <5% xylan degradation in
                                                                           •Process (NREL)
 •Pretreatment & Enzymatic               integrated pilot operation
                                                                           •Feedstock (ORNL)
 Hydrolysis (NREL)                           with >30% solids
 •Leading PT technologies (CAFI)
                                           Reduce sugar losses in
                                          conditioning step to <1%         Biomass Recalcitrance
                                        in integrated pilot operation      •Targeted Conversion Research
                                              or eliminate need            (NREL)
                                               for conditioning

Enzyme Production & Hydrolysis
                                       Validate $0.10 cost of enzyme
•Targeted Conversion Research (NREL)                                      Fermentation Organism
                                        in integrated pilot operation
•Enzyme Solicitation Awards                                               Development
•Enzyme Support/Validation (NREL)                                         •5 awarded projects, 2 are near-term
                                           >85% Cellulose to EtOH,        •Fermentation Validation (NREL)
                                        >85% non-glucose sugar to EtOH
                                             in a total of 3 days in
Biochemical Processing Integration        integrated pilot operation
                                            with >20% total solids                    Pretreatment &
(NREL)                                                                                 Conditioning
                                            Data from integrated pilot              Enzyme Production
                                            operation combined with
Biochemical Platform Analysis            process design & cost estimate          Enzyme Saccharification
                                                                                     & Fermentation
(NREL)                                    validates a $1.31/gal ethanol
                                                   selling price.                  Process Integration
                                                                                       & Modeling
Analysis Supports Research                                                                                                                                                    $3.00

- Example: High Solids Processing

                                                                                                                             Total Invested Capital ($ per annual gal EtOH)
                                                                                                                                                                                                              All Equipment


                                                        $1.12                                                                                                                 $2.60

MESP (Minimum Ethanol Selling Price) ($ per gal EtOH)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Excluding Power Generation
                                                        $1.06                                                                                                                 $2.20
                                                                   30% Solids to Saccharification                                                                                                                             System

                                                                   20% Solids to Saccharification
                                                        $1.02                                                                                                                      18%      20%      22%      24%      26%      28%        30%   32%
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Total Solids to Saccharification (wt%)

                                                        $0.98                                                                                                                            Why high solids R&D?
                                                                                                                                                                                               –Reduces capital costs
                                                                                                                                                                                               –Increases sugar concentrations
                                                        $0.94                                                                                                                                  –Improved reactor designs will improve
                                                             20%   25%           30%          35%             40%      45%                                                                     mass transfer
                                                                         Total Solids to Pretreatment (wt%)
                                                                                                                                                                                               –Contingency if other targets that aren’t
                                                                                                                                                                                               –Over design of critical unit operations
                                                                                                                                                                                               will cushion pioneer plants’ lower
              Some Process Areas are Already Mature
         Capital Recovery Charge                        Raw Materials & Waste                      Process Electricity
         Grid Electricity                               Total Plant Electricity                    Fixed Costs

                           Biomass                                                                                    81.1¢

                     Feed Handling                   9.0¢

                    Pretreatment /

                 Hybrid Hydrolysis
                  & Fermentation

                          Cellulase                                     32.3¢

             Distillation and Solids
                    Recovery                                  18.5¢

           Wastewater Treatment                  4.2¢

                                                                                    17.7¢ (Net)
                          Utilities              7.4¢

                           Storage            1.8¢                                                  $2.47 MESP
                                                                                                                 $1.31 MESP
-$0.40         -$0.20                 $0.00                 $0.20        $0.40             $0.60              $0.80           $1.00

Life Cycle Assessment: A Holistic Approach to Sustainability
                                                            LCA… continued
      Sheehan, Journal of Industrial Ecology, Volume 7, Number 3-4, 2004

95% less oil use               106% lower GHG                  12x higher NOx
(every mile traveled           (CO2, CH4, N2O)                 (from soil emissions)
requires 5% of crude oil
compared to conv
           Success Factors and Showstoppers
Success Factors:
 For Biochemical Platform Analysis
    Maintaining close interaction with researchers is critical
    Exploring a variety of technology options to ensure R&D is at the forefront
    Applying scale-up experience (932’s, 10% solicitation and others) to modeling
    Using new breakthroughs from Office of Science Projects in advanced process design

 For the Biochemical Process
  Multiple process paths to enable different feedstocks
  Continued scientific breakthroughs to reduce process complexity and costs

Potential Showstoppers:
 For the Analysis Project
  Unavailable R&D data for design and modeling efforts
  Loss of critical engineering know-how (aging of experts and industry pull)

 For the Biochemical Process
  The effect of recycle streams on the integrated process is critical
  Part of R&D plan
  Alternate destinations for recycle streams can have significant economic
                                                                  Future Work

 For the near term 2012 goal:
  Assess technology alternatives
   – Many new ideas to come from RMI/NREL Charrette
  Prepare annual State of Technology estimates to show progress to the 2012
   performance target and identify any gaps in R&D plans
  Validate 2012 performance target using pilot plant data, baseline process design and
   mature technology cost estimate

 For the mid term 2017 and long term 2030 goals:
  Develop 2017 platform cost and R&D targets
  Take advantage of office of science developments to design advanced technology
  Develop integrated biorefinery designs using the strengths of biochemical and
   thermochemical conversion processes
                                                   Future Work
                     RMI/NREL Charrette:
                  An Intensive Design Review
 June 18-20, 2007 – Cellulosic
  Ethanol Design Innovation
  Workshop held in Golden, CO.

 Collection of experts from various
   – Goal: radically increase the
     efficiency and reduce the cost of
     the biochemical conversion process
 Over the next year, analysis will
  work to more fully develop the
  design ideas generated

 2 reports are planned
                                          Potential Distillation Design
  Analysis of design ideas
  Integration of best ideas into the          -Reduced capital
   baseline process                       -Reduced energy demand
                                                                              Future Work
                    Integrated Biorefinery Designs

Lignocellulosic                             Steam &               1,035,000 gpd
  Feedstock                                  Power     Lignin
                     Ethanol via
                    Bioconversion                     CHP Plant                           Ethanol
 10,000 ton/day
                                                                                       1,168,000 gpd
                                                                                       409 MM gal/yr
                                   Lignin-rich Residue
                                      1,400 ton/day                                Yield: 117 gal/ton
          Lignin-rich Residue
                1,500 ton/day
                             Gasification                    Synthesis
                                                Syngas                     Ethanol
                                                                         133,500 gpd

                                                            Higher Alcohols
                                                              29,700 gpd
S. Phillips and J. Jechura
                                                    Future Work
                 Sustainability Challenges
                 Biomass to Biofuels System
                      Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Economic Prosperity                                Land
• Rural and urban                                  • Use and change
  communities                                      • Competition with food
• Industry                                         • Soil

Social Well-being                                  Biodiversity

Biofuels and Biomass                               Water
• Supply infrastructure                            • Use
• Fuel production                                  • Quality
• Distribution and use                             • Efficiency of use
                          Environmental Impacts
                    Increase Food and Energy Security
•The Biochemical Platform Analysis project has made significant progress
over the past 2 years in developing detailed designs and costs that have
helped the platform to set quantifiable goals and technical targets.

•Analysis will continue to track progress through annual state of technology
assessments while working closely with research staff.

•Analysis plays a crucial role in guiding the direction of Biochemical
•Sustainability issues will continue to grow in importance and priority.

              Special thanks to Team Members and others…

                                   Kelly Ibsen
                                  John Jechura
                                 Robert Wallace
                                   Tom Foust

                   What Questions can I answer for you?
Additional Slides
Ethanol Price Targets Compared to Gasoline

   2.5                                                      Price Per Gallon of gasoline Equivalent
           Price Per Gallon ($2003)                                        ($2003)

    1                                                                                  $2.18
                                      $2.18            1
   0.5          $1.07

           Nominal Ethanol    Retail Gasoline Price
                                                             Retail Ethanol    Retail Gasoline Price
         Price Target in 2012 based on $55/bbl Oil
                                                                               based on $55/bbl Oil

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