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					                                      Maritime Systems & Sensors




   Rapid Response Technology
     Trade Study Tool – R2T2


   Technology Management of Systems in Practice

         NDIA                       Tom Herald
     2003 Systems               tom.herald@lmco.com
                                     703-367-2973
Engineering Conference      LM Maritime Systems & Sensors
   20-23 October 2003          Manassas, VA 20110-4157
Agenda
                                             Maritime Systems & Sensors
• Background
• Technology Refreshment – Obsolescence Driven
• Technology Assessment – Input data
• Technology Refreshment Strategy and Plan
• R2T2 Description – A Technology Management Approach
Background
                                                   Maritime Systems & Sensors
Started with an interest in being able to predict how often change
  must occur to a system in order to mitigate the impacts of
  individual component obsolescence, especially in COTS systems.
Note that a component in this definition can be a part at any level in
 the hierarchy.
Programs of initial interest were:
• JSF (F-35) - Started the interest with planned TR and TI during
  development window and management of a COTS-intensive
  solution, particularly at the board and sub-assembly levels.
• SLVR - Super Low and Very Low Frequency Radar offered a small-
  sized project to test the manual process that evolved into the R2T2
  web-based (ASP format) engine.
• ACS - Aerial Common Sensor (Army) Concept Exploration phase
  allowed for further refinement of the model and initial validation.
• ARCI – Acoustic Rapid COTS Insertion, Advanced Processing Build
Technology Refreshment Strategy
With Escalating Technology Performance
                                                                                                                  Maritime Systems & Sensors



                                                     High Density Embedded            Technology Insertion
                                                     Processing Systems
                                                                                   Additional Functionality Can
                        10,000                       HPC Servers                   Be Accommodated By Re-
                                                     Web Servers                   Populating Processing Units
                                                     Workstations                  or by Migrating Up the
     Processing Throughput (GFLOPS)




                                                                                   Product Line

                                      1,000




                                                                                                                 Technology
                                       100                                                                  Refreshment Strategy
                                                                                                           Migrate Applications
                                                                                                           Down the Vendor’s
                                                                Technology                                 Product Line To
                                                           Refreshment Strategy                            Leverage Lower Cost,
                                        10                                                                 High-Volume
                                                          Consolidate Processing                           Processors
                                                          Into Fewer, Partially
                                                          Populated Processing
                                                          Units to Reduce Cost

                                         1
                                              2000    2001   2002    2003     2004       2005     2006     2007    2008    2009 2010
Open Standards Evolve Too!
                                                                                    Maritime Systems & Sensors
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34


Complex System Operational Profile




Typical Processor Products

Current Open and Defacto Standards Examples
    ATM            OC3             OC12                       OC48                                             OC192

   FCS

   UNIX

   CORBA

   VME
Potential New Technologies
                             Windows NT

                               DCOM

Key Evolving Technologies                                               Next Generation Processor Technology


                                                              Continuous Evolution Required
                    Product Life Cycle                          • To Avoid System Obsolescence
                                                                • To Keep Pace with Prevailing Standards
  Development         Production              Support
                                                                • To Enable Technology Insertion, Functional
                                                                  Enhancement
Technology Refresh Process
Strategy & Plan Development
                                                                     Maritime Systems & Sensors



Assess Each Product
   • Selected Open Standards Conformance
   • Technologies Employed
   • Current Status of Each
        – Technology Life Cycle
        – Technology Change Frequency
        – Capacity Change Percent
        – Current Technology Maturity

       Develop Technology Refresh Strategy
           •   Plan for Cost Effective “State-of-the-Practice Bathtub Curve”
           •   Keep in “State-of-the-art” Product Announcements + 4 Levels
           •   Use System Assessment to Set a Tech Refreshment Frequency
           •   Have a Commonality Vision That the Strategy Supports

                   Develop Technology Refresh Plan
                        •   Maintain Open Standards, Change Only As Required for TOC
                        •   Minimize Architectural Re-Design Cost
                        •   Unique Solution for Each Subsystem
                        •   Technology Refreshment Roadmap
                        •   Integrate the Unique Solutions
                        •   Create Matrix (W/Subsystems As X-Axis & Tech Refreshes As Y-Axis)
                        •   Synchronize with Any Known/Projected Functionality Upgrade Plans
Technology Refreshment Strategy
Based on Technology & Product Assessments
                                                                            Maritime Systems & Sensors

Example = TR every 5 years:
                 2000                     2005                2010                     2015 . . .
Potential Supplier     Initial Baseline     2005 Tech Refresh     2010 Tech Refresh         ...
    Change


    Major HW            Initial OSA Set          OSA Stable       Minor OSA Change          ...
    Changes

   SW Fixes &        SW       SW     SW     SW      SW     SW        SW         SW
   Capability                                                                               ...
                     TR 1     TR 2   TR 3   TR 4    TR 5   TR 6      TR 7       TR 8
   Enhanced

  Form/Fit HW           HW Refresh               HW Refresh           HW Refresh            ...
   Changes


F3I-Compatible HW
                            Asynchronous Substitutions for Out-of-Production Parts          ...
     Changes


                     Synchronize HW/SW Changes to Consolidate
                            System Regression Testing
  R2T2 Technology Refresh Strategy
                                                                                         Maritime Systems & Sensors

  Technology Refreshment Strategy Development
      –Technology Life Cycle for Each Product
      –Technology Maturity for Each Product
      –Technology Change Frequency
      –Capacity Percent Change                                                      What is the
                                                                            Ideal Point for a Technology
                                                                                   Refreshment?
                                            Cost Is High at Initial
                                                                               Jump to A+1 or A+2?
                                            Product Introduction
                                             and Goes Down As
                Technology Change          Competition Increases
                   Periodicity &                                                               Cost Goes Back Up As
                                                                                             Technology Advances and
                  Percent Change                                                            Supportability Costs Increase



Technology Maturity = Where
  is the Subsystem in the
  Current Technology Life
           Cycle?
                                                                                 State-of-the-Practice Cost Stabilizes
                         Technology
                          Life Cycle                          Product Cost Life Cycle                        Time

                                       Product Generation A           Product Generation A + 1      Product Generation A + 2
Technology Change Considerations
                                                Maritime Systems & Sensors

NRE Cost for Refreshments
 – High cost for High Refreshment Frequency (i.e. annually)
 – Low cost for 15-year modernization method

Support Cost Element
 – Small Cost for High Refreshment Frequency (i.e. annually) –
   Low Need for spares procurement, but greater Configuration
   Management (i.e. Technical Documentation and Training)
 – High Cost for “bridge buys” to end of long refreshment
   frequencies (i.e. 10 – 15 years in length)
 – Cost due to end of phase high dollar investment, sunk cost,
   budget inefficiency.
 – Two Factors: MTBF and Obsolescence


   See Next Slide for Graphical View . . .
Technology Change Cost Graph
                                                        Maritime Systems & Sensors



               Realized Total Refreshment Costs =
                       Refreshment NRE +
                       Refreshment Recurring +
                       Support NRE +
                       Support Recurring
 Cost

                                                   Support Cost Element

                                            NRE Cost for Refreshments


          Annually                                 Once in
        (Fast-Paced)                              Life Cycle


             Technology Refreshment Frequency

Finding the Balance of Support and Change Costs
Technology Management Summary
                                                Maritime Systems & Sensors

Technology Refreshment Is a Necessary Fact of Life for
 COTS-Based & Custom-Designed Systems
 – Required for Supportability
 – Reduces Cost of Ownership
 – Allows Continuous Exploitation of Exponentially-Improving
   Technology
 – Facilitates Introduction of Advanced, Processing-Intensive
   Functionality


Effective Planning for Technology Refreshment Based on:
 – Comprehensive Technology Strategy and Plan To Accurately
   Anticipate Technology and COTS Product Directions
 – Implementation-Independent Design To Enable Low Cost
   Exploitation of Emerging COTS Products and Advanced
   Technologies
R2T2 Summary & Abstract
                                                         Maritime Systems & Sensors

Summary of the Intent
Rapid Response Technology & Trade Study methodology and aid for
  Technology Forecasting and Strategy Recommendations
  (especially useful during proposal and early conceptual phases)
Abstract
Current noteworthy industry capabilities are focused on
  component-level obsolescence predictions (such as TACTrac,
  i2 LCE and MOCA) and look to predict only the “next”
  obsolescence issue. This R2T2 technology assessment engine
  permits the level of abstraction to be raised to sub-assembly,
  unit, sub-system and the system level in support of System-of-
  Systems design. This tool also focuses on the technologies
  and their behavior (based on history and/or user knowledge
  inputs). The algorithm for assessing a system behavior from
  the aggregation of the technology elements is the heart of this
  research.                                  See Enhanced Function Flow Block
                                                 Diagrams on following pages
R2T2 High-Level Description
                                    Maritime Systems & Sensors




                              Tom Herald
Problem to Solve
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Maritime Systems & Sensors
The Needs:
• Rapid Response Technology Assessment Mechanism that can
  support Proposal Trades, CE Trades as well as Development phase.
• Give a Rapid Response to a Technology




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Web Deployable via Windchill, MS Sharepoint, etc.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      COTS Cost Assessment Tools (Price, SEER, etc.)
                                                                                                           Define Technology Curves (Hardware & Software)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Output Report Comparative Analysis Generation
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Define CERs for Technology Refresh NRE Costs
                                                                                                                                                            Define Technology Refresh Plan Mapping Rules
  Assessment (on order of hours, not weeks)




                                                                           Design Dependent Requirements
• Give an “80% accurate” full life Cost




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Support Cost CERs (Training, etc.)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              IETM Tech Documentation Level

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Demo of the Integrated Suite
  Estimate for comparison and sizing
• Recommend a Program TR frequency




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Sum of Coverage
• Defendable / Tangible Process
                         Originating Technical Requirements
• Flexible enough to     4. Recognize Technology Insertion
                         6. What-if Scenario Capabilities
                                                                                                           10                                               10
                                                                                                                                                            3
                                                                                                                                                                                                           10
                                                                                                                                                                                                           3                                                     6                                                                                                                                    3                                                                       6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       30
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       21
                         7. Distributed Processing f/Geographic Distance                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  10                                                                                                                                                                                                           10
  handle What-If         8. Software Development Content                                                           3                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          3                                        6                                                                               12
                         9. Sample Application of Tools                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           3                                                                               10                                                                          6                                        19
  Synthesis              10. Prototype of Process and Tools Experience
                         11. Tool Responsiveness
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              6                                        19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       12
                         12. Models for Costing                                                                                                                                                                   6                                       6                                                                                                                                   6                                  10                                   10                                               38

• Inexpensive Solution
                         13. Required Expertise for Operation                                                                                               6                                                                                             6                                               3                                                                                       3                                                                                                                    18
                         SUM of Applicability (0 - 10 Scale)                                               13                                               19                                             19                                             18                                              25                                                       9                              32                             16                                   28

                         10 = Strongly Linked Design Dependency
                         6 = Medium Linked Design Dependency
                         3 = Low Linked Design Dependency
Marketplace
                                                  Maritime Systems & Sensors

What is the marketplace for the research? Which LM
 program could use it?
• TACTrac (a product now owned by i2, previously owned by
  TACTECH). Part level (capacitor, transistors, etc.) obsolescence
  database, with extensive industry probing and data gathering.
  Very expensive product (about $20,000 plus annual fees for
  weekly updates). It rates a product on a scale of 1(new) to
  5(obsolete). Provides warnings of impending obsolescence.
• LCE (also owned by i2, their original product), also expensive, and
  uses the TACTrac model of data gathering and database
  management. Same idea, get data from industry, compile and sell.
• MOCA (University of Maryland, CALCE organization) is a research-
  level C++ programmed Graduate project. It takes output from a
  TACTrac or LCE and uses it to predict a program Tech Refresh
  point. It uses production schedules and part tracking. Still too
  low a level for consideration. No cost data (no sales yet).
R2T2 Approach
                                                Maritime Systems & Sensors

•R2T2 performance is based on:
  – Engineering data and technology assessment inputs
  – Develops a program-level synchronous TR frequency
  – Optimizes the recommended TR frequency based on life cycle
    cost
  – Develops a TR Plan for each refresh point, identifying necessary
    changes by part number.
  – Develops a Life Cycle Plan for each system serial number
  – Allows for What-if Analysis to compare baseline options quickly
  – Provides a quick/coarse Reliability Assessment for comparisons
  – Develops a coarse Cost Estimate (can use Price or ICE as
    desired)
  – Integrated, Web-deployed, uses databases (no shadowing)
  – Clean, open architecture implementation maximizing flexibility
 R2T2 Optimization Strategy
                                     Maritime Systems & Sensors

• Easy Side by Side Comparison of
  Strategies
• Increased, Customizable Graphing
  Capabilities
   R2T2 Tech Refresh Screens
                                                                                                                                                                                      Maritime Systems & Sensors

            Produc t Gener ation A
            Produc t Gener ation   B
                                                      Stable Reference, Comparators, Switch
            Produc t Gener ation   C                                   2001 by Lockheed M artin
            Produc t Gener ation   D
            Produc t Gener ation
            Produc t Gener ation
            Minor Re vision
                                   E 18 months
                                   F                                                                                                These charts represent
                            12 months
                                                                                                                                    some of the technology
                Cost
                                                                                                                                    groupings for the VME
 Date of ass es sment:
       1/01/01
                                                                                                                                    System.
                                     Life Span: 46 months


                                                 Product Cost Life Cycle                                           5 years

                         20% maturity                                       40% maturity                            100% maturity
                                                                                                                                           Product Generation A
      Tech Maturity           •AD9850BRS                    Tech Maturity      •AD688AQ            Tech Maturity        •QT2001            Product Generation B
                                                                                                                                                                                      Micro Processors and Memory
                              •HCPL2430                                        •AD790JN                                                                                                                2001 by Lockheed Martin
                                                                                                                                           Product Generation C
                              •LM339AN                                         •ADG431BN                                                   Product Generation D
                              •LM6321                                          •AD7847AN                                                   Product Generation E
                              •CD74HCT541E
The charts plot the maturity
                                                                                                                                                                      10 months
                                                                                                                                           Product Generation F
                                                                                                                                           Minor Revision
                                                                                                                                                                6 months

of the system components                                                                                                                          Cost

and the projected cost                                                                                                          Date of as sessment:
                                                                                                                                      1/01/01

associated with a given                                                                                                                                                    Life Span: 30 months

functionality.                                                                                                                                                                       Product Cost Life Cycle                        5 years
                                                                                                                                                         40%    maturity                                   80%    maturity

                                                                                                                                     Tech Ma turity            •AM27C 020-120DC           Tech Ma turity         •MVME2603-4121
                                                                                                                                                               •TMS27C020-12JL                                   •TC55100C PI-85L
 R2T2 System Capacity Metrics
                                                                                                            Maritime Systems & Sensors

By utilizing an optimized Technology Refreshment Strategy,
this example system will very conservatively be able to
realize a 1305% capacity increase.
                                          Capacity Increase Through Projected Life Span
                              1305%

                              1105%
        % Capacity Increase




                              905%

                              705%

                              505%

                              305%

                              105%
                                    05

                                          06

                                                  07

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                               Tw o Cycle Cost                                      Years
                               Three Cycle Cost
                               Four Cycle Cost
  R2T2 Example Analysis
                                                                                                                Maritime Systems & Sensors

 In addition to the capacity increase, the optimal refresh
 strategy also represents a tremendous cost savings
                                                                     Project Yearly Spare and Repair Costs


• The cost                                $1,100,000
                                          $1,050,000
  savings in                              $1,000,000
                                            $950,000
                                            $900,000
  the last year
                  Spare and Repair cost




                                            $850,000
                                            $800,000
  alone make                                $750,000
                                            $700,000
  up ALL the                                $650,000
                                            $600,000
  additional                                $550,000
                                            $500,000
  costs for                                 $450,000
                                            $400,000

  NRE                                       $350,000
                                            $300,000
                                            $250,000
                                            $200,000
                                            $150,000
                                            $100,000
                                             $50,000
                                                  $-
                                                       2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

                                                                                                      Year

                                          Two Cycle Cost      Three Cycle Cost      Four Cycle Cost
 R2T2 Example Analysis
                                                                                                                                                                Maritime Systems & Sensors

The cost savings of the optimized system become even more
substantial when acquisition costs are added to the system.
                                                 Cumulative Total Costs (NRE, Spares and Repair) Over the Projected
                                                                             Life Span

                                                $12,000,000
                                                $11,500,000
        Cost of NRE, Spares and Repair (in $)




                                                $11,000,000
                                                $10,500,000
                                                $10,000,000
                                                 $9,500,000
                                                 $9,000,000
                                                 $8,500,000
                                                 $8,000,000
                                                 $7,500,000
                                                 $7,000,000
                                                 $6,500,000
                                                 $6,000,000
                                                 $5,500,000
                                                 $5,000,000
                                                 $4,500,000
                                                 $4,000,000
                                                 $3,500,000
                                                 $3,000,000
                                                 $2,500,000
                                                 $2,000,000
                                                 $1,500,000
                                                 $1,000,000
                                                   $500,000
                                                         $-
                                                              2001

                                                                     2002

                                                                            2003

                                                                                   2004

                                                                                          2005

                                                                                                 2006

                                                                                                        2007

                                                                                                               2008

                                                                                                                      2009

                                                                                                                             2010

                                                                                                                                    2011

                                                                                                                                           2012

                                                                                                                                                  2013

                                                                                                                                                         2014

                                                                                                                                                                 2015

                                                                                                                                                                        2016

                                                                                                                                                                               2017

                                                                                                                                                                                      2018

                                                                                                                                                                                             2019

                                                                                                                                                                                                    2020
                                Two Cycle Cost
                                Three Cycle Cost
                                Four Cycle Cost
                                                                                                                              Year
R2T2 Summary
                                        Maritime Systems & Sensors


• Thin Client Web-based Application
• Requiring minimal user inputs
• Providing comparative costs for trade analysis
• Provides Technology Refreshment Strategy
• Provides a line-item analysis of Technology Refresh
  Planning (Changes in time and magnitude)
• Capacity assessment performed over life cycle

				
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