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SiC'10 - How SiC will Impact Electronics: A 10 Year Projection

Description:    The industry is still waiting for a transistor, but PV inverters, motor drives and EV/HEV will push the
                market up...

                SiC challenges a $2.6B silicon device market

                This $2.6B Total Accessible Market is part of the overall $12B Si-based power discretes business
                (2008). Today the largest applications in potential revenue remain Power Supply PFC, UPS and
                Motor AC drives. Tomorrow, EV/HEV and inverters for PV installations will take the lead exhibiting
                higher CAGR (>15%/year)

                However, cost issues slow-down SiC penetration and we only forecast ~4% of the overall Silicon-
                based power discretes market to be displaced by SiC in 2019.

                Low-Voltage applications (< 1.2kV) are representing over 99% of today SiC device sales but we
                anticipate a huge increase of Medium-Voltage applications (1.2kV-1.7kV) in the next 2 years. High-
                Voltage apps will slowly appear from 2013-2014 along with technology improvement and cost

                The entrance of SiC in the promising EV/HEV field has been postponed to 2014 as no switch has
                reached large volume production yet and car makers are still improving silicon IGBT technology.
                Moreover, most of the current or new entrant EV/HEV manufacturers are working on both GaN and
                SiC for their next-gen inverters and no choice has been validated yet.

                In the 600-1200 V range, promising GaN technologies might threaten SiC. However, SiC industry
                maturity should protect it from frontal competition at least for the 2 next years

                In 2008 the SiC device market reached $23M . 2009 should exhibit something similar as the
                economic downturn has lead to a quasi null growth rate this year. 2014 will be the year of expected
                introduction of SiC in the automotive industry leading to a $100M market before 2015. In a decade
                from now, we anticipate a market size of several hundred million dollars, dominated by EV/HEV and
                PV inverter applications.

                4” is in full-production and 6” is in the starting blocks

                The total SiC substrate merchant market, including both n-type and S.I. has reached ~$48M in
                2008. It is expected to exceed $300M in a decade.

                CREE stays ahead of the competition, but its relative market share on the open market is shrinking
                as II-VI, SiCrystal and several new entrants are gaining momentum in the substrate battle.

                We saw the emergence of 2 new entrants in SiC substrates in 2008: N-Crystals (Russia) and
                Xiamen Powerway Advanced Material Co., Ltd (China) who are manufacturing and marketing 2” and
                3” SiC substrates 4H & 6H in both S.I. or n-type doping.

                Early 2009, another Chinese company, TankeBlue, announced impressive progress on scale-up
                production of 3” SiC wafers, exhibiting micropipe density < 10/cm². This let us think that Chinese
                companies are becoming more and more present on the market place proposing products with
                state-of-the-art specs and competitive pricing.

                We assess that the technical gap between yesterday’s leaders and today’s challengers is decreasing
                day by day.

                4” wafers are now at full-production at CREE and in final qualification phase at II-VI, Dow Corning
                and Nippon Steel. 6” is already announced by 2010. 150 mm wafers will definitely accelerate the
                cost reduction of SiC device manufacturing.
            If no transistor, no bright future for SiC business

             Transistor availability is the key condition to envision significant market growth. According to
            recent announcements from CREE, SemiSouth, TranSiC, Rohm or Mitsubishi, we remain confident
            that 2010 will see first commercial volume offers in MOSFET, J-FET or BJT.

            Once this condition is met, the SiC device industry will have to cut the cost to fit with client
            expectations. 2 parameters will have to be improved:

            - SiC substrate $/mm² cost

            - SiC device manufacturing cost and yield, with a particular emphasis on epitaxy process.

            The adoption of the SiC technology will also have to go through the severe qualification process of
            the industry (especially in the automotive sector). There, progress on reliability and robustness
            must fit the current silicon standards.

            If all conditions are passed, then we can forecast a $800M market size for SiC devices in a decade
            from now.

            This report presents the detailed major market metrics of the current and projected SiC device and
            substrate business, describing the targeted applications, the key players, the supply-chain, the
            volumes and related market size of each segment. It gives the possible total accessible market for
            SiC electronics, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of this technology over the current
            established silicon technologies. It describes the recent progress of device technologies as well as
            the new challenges offered by 4” and 6” substrates

            Benefits of the report for equipment and material manufacturers:
            - Analysis of the structure of the SiC industry and evolution of the industrial food chain
            - Calculation of wafer volumes to be produced including diameter evolution forecast for each
            market segments
            - Description of the processes and linked equipment and material markets

            Benefits of the report for the SiC devices manufacturers:
            - Analysis of the current applications and detailed analysis of the future businesses
            - Analysis of the competition from large companies to small start up
            - Volumes and prices forecasts
            - Alternative solutions analysis to the use of SiC devices

Contents:   Glossary

            Executive summary
            - Our vision of SiC market in the next 10 years. Conditions of success…
            - SiC-based device revenues and related 2008 company market shares
            - 10-years projection of SiC power device market size split by applications
            - Relative market shares of SiC power applications to 2019
            - Market projection for SiC substrates in various applications 2008-2019 in units and $, split by
            - Comparison with 2008 report: what we saw, what we missed, what has moved…

            2009 noteworthy news

            2008 noteworthy news

            The new entrants since 2005

            Recent known funding for SiC development

            Main manufacturing steps of the SiC device processing

            From Silicon to SiC: Total Accessible Market analysis
            - Positioning of the SiC devices in the Silicon world
- Silicon vs. SiC device characteristics

“Reality of silicon & expectations of SiC”
- Possible applications for SiC devices in Silicon power electronics
- Market segmentation of SiC applications as a function of voltage range
- SiC device market shares in %, split by voltage range to 2019
- SiC device applications roadmap

Time to market
- Main applications accessible to SiC

Specs / market data of today silicon device market
- Estimated accessible markets, growth rate, and time to market for SiC-based power electronics
- % of SiC device market over the total Silicon discrete power device market to 2019
- 2008 Top-15 power electronics company revenues (based on overall revenues in the Silicon
power electronics)
- Conclusion

SiC industry outlook
- Main SiC fabs in Europe
- Main SiC fabs in the US
- Main SiC fabs in Japan
- Main SiC fabs in Asia (Apart of Japan)
- Positioning of the main companies over the SiC value-chain
- Some recent strategies and choices for next-gen power devices technology
- Research Programs. France: G2REC
- Research Programs. Europe: MANSiC
- Research Programs. Japan:

Low-Voltage Applications

Power Factor Corrector Market
- PFC market main metrics
- SiC or GaN main added-value in PFC circuits
- PFC efficiency comparison as a function of junction T° and Schottky diode type (Si, SiC and GaN)
- TOP 15 OEM power supply manufacturers and related involvement in SiC & GaN
- SiC or GaN device main market requirements for PFC applications
- Comparison of Si, SiC or GaN diode cost in a PFC module
- 2008 SBD cost breakdown model projection From SiC 4” wafer to 6A packaged dies
- 2005-2019 SiC Schottky diodes market forecasts in units and revenues for PFC
- 2005-2019 SiC Schottky diodes wafers consumption for PFC business
- 2005-2019 substrate market value for SiC Schottky diodes in PFC business
- Discrete SiC SBD available on the market as off Q3 2009
- Conclusion and perspectives

Medium-Voltage Applications

EV/HEV market
- EV/HEV types and availability: Micro, Mild, Full and plug in Hybrid
- HEV/EV principles and functionalities:
- Projection of market shares of EV, HEV & FCV over ICE to 2019
- Sales projection for EV/HEV to 2019 in million units
- Why SiC in cars ?
- Current device technologies in use
- 2 key power modules: DC-DC boost converter and DC-AC inverter
- Expected improvements of SiC introduction in HEV
- The TOP 5 key requirements for power transistors in HEV (according to Toyota)
- Roadmap for operation voltage in HEV
- Industrial supply-chain and typical market prices from modules to power train
- Added value analysis of SiC electronics for HEV: fuel consumption and money savings
- Overview of Toyota HEV power module
- HEV inverter module cost breakdown
- Silicon vs. SiC HEV inverter cost breakdown
-   Sales projection for Silicon and SiC devices in EV/HEV inverters to 2019
-   4” and 6” SiC substrate volume projection for SiC devices in HEV to 2019
-   SiC device suppliers – car manufacturers relationships
-   Conclusion: perspective for SiC devices in the HEV

Inverters for solar panels
- Electric parameter of solar cells
- Solar market segmentation
- Installed base and annual demand of PV in MW to 2019
- Inverter module key parameters
- Cost breakdown of a solar installation and inverter cost in $/kW
- Typical cost breakdown of a single string inverter for residential application
- Trends in PV voltage
- First SiC inverter demonstrators: Fraunhofer ISE (D)
- First SiC inverter demonstrators: Kassel Institute (D)
- Electronic devices in PV inverters
- TOP-5 solar inverter main manufacturers
- SiC for solar power
- Volume and market of PV inverters split by type 2008-2019
- Device market for PV inverters. % of SiC market penetration and related size
- Market volume for SiC wafers for PV inverters

UPS (Uninterrupted Power Supply) market
- Global UPS market: Market value, main uses and worldwide sales
- UPS products segments
- Projection of world UPS market to 2019, split by power range
- UPS vendors market shares
- UPS architectures examples
- 2007-2019 Silicon and SiC device market forecasts in UPS applications
- 2006-2019 SiC substrate market forecasts in USP applications
- Conclusion: SiC success chances in the UPS segment

Industrial motor AC drives market
- AC drives applications
- Motor drives history
- AC drives market generalities
- 2008-2019 projection for AC drives market as a function of power range
- Less than 10 % of electric motors in the world are fitted with an AC drive.
- AC drives Total Accessible Market Volumes
- AC drives market shares
- AC Drives Supply-Chain
- AC drives electronic architecture
- SiC in AC drives: Results from Rockwell Automation
- SiC in AC drives: Others initiatives
- Total Accessible Market for SiC in AC Drives
- 2008-2018 Silicon and SiC device market value in AC drive applications
- SiC substrates market in units and $ for Motor AC drive applications
- Conclusion: Success chances for SiC in drives applications

High-Voltage Applications

Rail traction
- From grid to IGBT: Typical voltage range
- Estimation of the world market share of train rolling stock manufacturers
- Main voltage ranges implemented by major train manufacturers
- Main parameters for the calculations and definitions. 2007 starting point
- World market volume for IGBT modules used in rail transportation, split by voltage
- Tentative roadmap for SiC introduction in rail transportation. Device (chip) market
- SiC substrate market size for Rail Traction

Smart Power Grid :
- Electrical grid management trends
-   Growing need for electricity : will double from 2004 to 2030
-   Transition from today architecture to tomorrow distributed network and smart grid management
-   Architectures of Smart Power Distribution Sytems: HVDC & FACTS
-   HVDC and FACTS use
-   HVDC and FACTS main advantage
-   HVDC and FACTS market data
-   HVDC standard and HVDC light from ABB
-   Voltage Source Converters - HVDC light
-   Typical IGBT setup in an HVDC light system
-   Estimated worldwide HVDC installed capacity in MW
-   FACTS (Flexible AC transmission systems) technologies
-   FACTS technologies
-   Example of supply-chain in power grids
-   Estimation of market size for Silicon and SiC devices (chips) in both HVDC & FACTS applications
-   SiC substrate market size for both HVDC & FACTS applications

Ships and vessels propulsion
- Market segments
- Ships definition
- Example of propulsion setup
- Market outlook. Annual demand in units
- Current Silicon IGBT use and hypothesis
- IGBT module shipments in units
- Market for power devices in ships & vessels propulsion
- SiC substrate market in Units and $ for Ships and Vessels propulsion

Wind Power Market: Power converters for wind turbines
- Installed base and annual demand in GW and units
- Annual installed capacity geographical breakdown
- Wind turbine architecture
- Wind turbine generators and power converters
- Variable speed wind power electrical characteristics
- Variable speed wind turbine inverters
- Industrial supply-chain
- Wind turbines market trends
- Typical architecture of a 2MW Double Fed Induction Generator (DFIG): 80% of the market
- 6-pack Silicon IGBT module and diode market for wind turbine
- Transistor + diode market for wind turbines in Silicon and SiC market penetration
- SiC substrate market in Units and $ for Wind Turbines
- Conclusions

SiC substrates market
- What has changed in 08?
- State-of-art in SiC crystal growth
- SiC material: from polytype to devices
- From powder to SiC epi-ready wafers Sublimation (PVT) technique
- SiC crystal growth techniques comparison table
- Main SiC material manufacturing site locations Bulk and/or epi-foundry
- 2009 estimated SiC substrates monthly production
- Material polytypes, doping & orientation commercially available
- 2006, 2007 & 2008 SiC substrate vendor revenues & related market shares (n-type and S.I.)
- Key accounts of main SiC material vendors 2008 status
- SiC epi-house and epi-service offers
- Wafers diameter evolution in production for Power Electronics
- Wafers diameter evolution in production for GaN/SiC LED
- Wafers diameter evolution in production for GaN/SiC RF devices
- 2005-2019 SiC row substrates price evolution split by type (S.I. / n-type) and diameter (2”, 3”,
4” and 6”)
- Volume dependency of SiC n-type pricing as a function of the lot size. Example for 3” and 4”
- Comparison SiC/Si for cost of raw substrate for a 1 Amp device
- Impact of the off-cut on the ingot yield
- SiC epitaxy: typical process time
- Overview of SiC epi-reactors installed-base (non-exhaustive list)
            - Market projection for SiC substrates in various applications 2008-2019
            - Conclusion

            SiC Technology: Discrete device & Power Module
            - $/mm² for SiC row substrate and processed device in 2009 and 2015
            - SiC power devices: chips size and power density
            - Current density SiC material price pushes for high A/mm²
            - Current density (A/mm²) roadmap for SiC devices in production
            - SiC transistor: who is active?
            - SiC device voltage range covered by main companies (Prod. or R&D)
            - 2010 MOSFET cost breakdown model projection

            From 4” wafer to 1200V/100A packaged dies
            - SiC MOSFET: state-of-the-art
            - SiC diodes: state-of-the-art
            - SiC JFET state-of-the-art
            - SiC BJT: state-of-the-art
            - SiC Thyristor: state-of-the-art
            - Main power module products implementing SiC devices
            - - AIST 300kVA SiC inverter
            - - Mitsubishi Electric 3.7kW SiC inverter
            - - Mitsubishi Electric 11kW SiC inverter
            - - CREE / Kansai Electric 100 kVA SiC Inverter
            - - Peregrine Power
            - - APEI Inc.
            - - SatCon Power Systems

            General conclusion. Perspectives of the SiC industry

            - Sumitomo Metal Industries Liquid Phase Epitaxy process
            - SiC epi-reactor LPE-EPI (Milano, italy)
            - SiC epi-reactor Epigress (Aixtron Group)
            - CREE company profile
            - - 2008 fiscal year results (Ended June 29th, 2008)
            - - Distribution of 2007-2008 revenues
            - - re-building of CREE-OSRAM business relations
            - - 2005 to 2008 analysis: breakdown by main customers
            - - Location & Size
            - - Facilities Equipment

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