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									                                    Risk and Safety Management

                                              Program Overview

Program Description
 Risk and safety assessment techniques provide information that enable nuclear plant owners to make
 technically sound design, maintenance, and operational decisions, contributing to safer and more cost-effective
 plant operation. Risk models and techniques are being used in a growing number of applications, including
 online maintenance, surveillance interval extensions, flexible allowed outage times, and risk-informed
 performance-based fire protection. Continuous refinement of risk and safety models and application approaches
 is necessary to ensure decisions based on these models reflect industry operating experience and state-of-the-
 art computational advances.

 The Risk and Safety Management Program develops risk assessment tools to enhance the safety and improve
 the economics of existing and future nuclear power plants. Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) risk and
 safety software codes assist utilities in performing detailed analyses to quantify the level of risk, contributing to
 increased plant safety, more efficient and flexible plant operations and maintenance, and reduced electricity
 production costs.

Research Value
 Risk-informed performance-based approaches provide a “win-win” for the regulator, the nuclear plant owner,
 and the public. The regulator can focus on issues truly important to safety that benefit the public, while the plant
 owner gains operational flexibility and an opportunity for cost reduction. Since 1992, overall industry core
 damage frequency has dropped by a factor of five. This improvement has been driven by risk-informed
 initiatives, continued plant and equipment performance improvements, and probabilistic risk assessment model
 improvements. Risk and Safety Management Program members gain access to the following:

      Research results and technical input that foster a risk-informed, performance-based regulatory
       environment, including the significance determination process (SDP), the mitigating system performance
       index (MSPI), and internationally with periodic safety cases and license renewal
      Tools and methodologies that increase plant safety and reduce plant and resource requirements
      Shortened outages, fewer unnecessary shutdowns, reduced inspections and testing, and less-intensive
       treatment of low-safety significant safety-related equipment
      Robust, plant-specific framework for more focused and stable regulatory interaction

Approach
 The Risk and Safety Management Program conducts research to facilitate the development of a risk-informed
 framework that can provide both operational flexibility and safety benefits to nuclear power plants. Operational
 flexibility encompasses on-line maintenance, flexible testing, flexible technical specifications, and enforcement
 discretion. Safety benefits include tangible and measured risk reductions as well as intangible items such as
 improved safety focus.

      Refine probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models to guide effective design, operation, and asset
       management decisions for critical plant issues
      Provide technical analyses supporting continued regulatory acceptance of risk-informed activities
      Develop analytical and software tools for safety evaluations, configuration risk management, fault tree
       analysis, and security assessments
      Support the development of a larger pool of trained nuclear risk professionals




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Electric Power Research Institute                                                         2011 Research Portfolio




Accomplishments
 EPRI’s Risk and Safety Management Program supports industry efforts to ensure risk-informed approaches can
 be used in making operational, maintenance, and regulatory decisions impacting nuclear power plants.

       Developed the first in a series of computer-based training modules on the fundamentals of probabilistic
        risk assessment and risk-informed regulation. These modules provide a convenient and easy-to-
        understand mechanism for conveying risk principles.
       Developed functional requirements for the Phoenix software, an advanced risk code that would enable
        analysis of all modes and hazards, and an integrated risk profile of the entire plant.
       Continued training program for the next generation of risk professionals. More than 75 people have
        completed the course, which reduces the qualification time to develop a contributing risk engineer.
       Provided improvements to the methods for developing Fire Probabilistic Risk Assessments in support of
        risk-informed regulation including transition to National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) 805.
       Developed guidance for performing an Internal Flood Probabilistic Risk Assessment (IFPRA). This
        guidance will help users meet the requirements of ASME/ANS RA-Sa-2009 while saving resources in
        development, maintenance, and review.
       Formulated guidelines for developing consistent high-quality probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) and
        risk-informed regulatory submittals.
       Assisted nuclear plants in pursuing regulatory relief through individual and emergency technical
        specification changes such as diesel generator “allowed outage time” modifications.

Current Year Activities
 Risk and Safety Management Program research and development for 2011 will focus on the continued
 socialization of risk technology with both regulators and industry management and staff. Specific efforts will
 include the following:

       Continued development of the next generation of risk professionals through the Education of Risk
        Professionals course
       Computer-based training overview of PRA fundamentals and risk-informed regulation suitable for
        management and the end users of risk information
       Update of the Safety and Operational Benefits of Risk-Informed Initiatives report (1016308)
       Continued improvements and enhancements of PRA and risk technology, most notably in the fire and
        seismic hazard areas

Estimated 2011 Program Funding
 $10.0 M

Program Manager
 Ken Canavan, 704-595-2731, kcanavan@epri.com




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Electric Power Research Institute                                                               2011 Research Portfolio




                                               Summary of Projects

   Project Number   Project Title                Description

   P41.07.01.01     Internal Event PRA (base)    This project addresses methods research, tools development, and
                                                 data collection for Internal Events Probabilistic Risk Assessments
                                                 (PRAs). In the area of methods, the project solicits input from nuclear
                                                 plant operators, regulators, and the public on the current technical
                                                 issues facing those who prepare PRAs and who apply them in a risk-
                                                 informed framework. In the area of tools, this project performs
                                                 fundamental research in the area of numerical and logic modeling
                                                 techniques that result in improved software tools or approaches. In
                                                 the area of data, this project collects data, such as loss of offsite
                                                 power data and experience that supports the development of PRAs.
   P41.07.01.02     Internal Fire PRA (base)     As with internal events PRA, EPRI develops the tools, data, and
                                                 methods to support the development of fire PRAs including the
                                                 accurate assessment of fire growth, propagation, suppression,
                                                 mitigation, and the effects of the fire on equipment and cables. This
                                                 project includes activities and products such as fire PRA methods, the
                                                 Fire Events Database, fire growth and propagation tools, and fire
                                                 effects testing.
   P41.07.01.03     Seismic Risk Analysis        This project maintains and improves seismic methods to resolve
                    (base) (QA)                  issues and decrease the cost of seismic assessments and seismic
                                                 equipment qualification. Project activities focus on both simplified and
                                                 extensive seismic risk methods that are "used and useful" by plant
                                                 engineers and regulators. The project also monitors and informs
                                                 regulatory programs to minimize costs for complying with seismic
                                                 requirements.
   P41.07.01.04     Risk-Informed Regulation     This project supports engagement with stakeholders to advance risk-
                    (base)                       informed methods within the regulatory context through meetings,
                                                 risk-informed programs, and EPRI research activities. This project
                                                 also provides technical insight and direction for specific initiatives,
                                                 such as the treatment of external events and low power and
                                                 shutdown; conducts the annual Configuration Risk Management
                                                 Forum meeting; and supports participation on international standards
                                                 and working committees.
   P41.07.01.05     PRA and Safety Training      This project continues to develop and refine the Education of Risk
                    (base)                       Professionals course materials, including classroom presentations,
                                                 speaker notes, demonstrations, and test banks. These courses will
                                                 continue to be delivered as part of the Education of Risk
                                                 Professionals training class. Five fee-based courses are scheduled
                                                 for 2011 based on these materials. This project also includes the
                                                 development of a series of computer-based probabilistic risk
                                                 assessment (PRA) training modules.
   P41.07.01.06     Analysis of Other Risks      Nuclear plants are potentially exposed to a number of external risks
                    and Hazards (base) (QA)      and hazards, including the crashing of a commercial aircraft into a
                                                 nuclear plant, high wind loads, toxic chemical releases, and various
                                                 business, financial, and regulatory risks. Advanced methods and tools
                                                 are needed to support the evaluation and management of these
                                                 diverse hazards.




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Electric Power Research Institute                                                             2011 Research Portfolio




   Project Number   Project Title               Description

   P41.07.01.09a    PHOENIX Technology          This project support development of PHOENIX, an all-modes and all-
                    Development                 hazards advanced risk tool that provides an integrated risk profile of
                    (supplemental) (QA)         the plant. PHOENIX will be an advanced risk tool that enables users
                                                to address multiple hazards and modes of operation efficiently,
                                                obviating the current need for multiple tools. Additional planned
                                                capabilities include the ability to interface with inspection and
                                                automated log-books, remote equipment monitoring devices, and
                                                materials degradation matrices.
   P41.07.01.10     PRA Scope & Quality         The PRA Scope and Quality project provides a vehicle for developing
                    (supplemental)              PRA guidance based on state-of-the-art technology. This project also
                                                provides a means for transmitting this technology to end users,
                                                through seminars, workshops, and webcasts.
   P41.07.01.11d    PRA Documentation           This project develops software and compiles best practices to reduce
                    Assistant (supplemental)    the resource burden associated with PRA documentation and
                                                associated risk-informed applications.
   P41.07.01.12     NFPA 805 and Fire PRA       This project addresses issues impacting plant and regulatory actions
                    (supplemental)              related to fire PRAs, including the change process, change
                                                evaluations, fire-induced multiple spurious operations, fire-related
                                                human reliability analysis (HRA), operator manual actions, and non-
                                                conforming barriers. The Fire PRA User Group responds to technical
                                                and procedural questions on the use of fire PRA methods.
   P41.07.01.13     SQUG/SEQUAL                 This project supports management and operation of the Seismic
                    (supplemental) (QA)         Qualification Utility Group (SQUG) and the Seismic Experience-
                                                Based Qualification (SEQUAL) program, which provide a cost-
                                                effective methodology for evaluating the seismic ruggedness of
                                                nuclear plant equipment without costly seismic shake table testing or
                                                analysis.
   P41.07.01.14f    Risk-Informed Option 2      This project develops guidance to streamline the licensing process
                    User Group                  and define appropriate treatment practices for low-safety-significant
                    (supplemental)              structures, systems, and components. A project technical steering
                                                committee consisting of licensee personnel has been established to
                                                provide a forum for plant personnel to communicate issues, discuss
                                                resolution possibilities, review best practices, and benchmark against
                                                other plants’ practices.
   P41.07.01.15g    GOTHIC Advisory Group       This project develops software, procedures, and applications
                    (QA) (supplemental)         guidance for conducting three-dimensional analyses of reactor
                                                containment buildings under accident conditions. The user group
                                                provides guidance on new software features, as well as training and
                                                user support for the software.
   P41.07.01.15h    HRA/PRA Tool User           This users group supports enhancements to and application of the
                    Group (QA)                  HRA Calculator software tool. Due to the importance of human
                    (supplemental)              actions to nuclear plant safety risk and the impact of these actions on
                                                PRA results, the HRA User Group also provides training on HRA
                                                methods and the HRA Calculator software at least twice per year.
   P41.07.01.15j    Risk and Reliability User   EPRI has developed a diverse suite of computer software tools to
                    Group (supplemental)        support risk evaluations and plant operations, including fault tree
                                                codes (CAFTA), scheduling and risk mitigation tools (EOOS), and
                                                software for specialized analyses (for example, FRANX for fire PRA).
                                                This project provides software training, user support for these
                                                applications, and industry meetings that provide a forum for sharing
                                                results and methods among the user community.




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Electric Power Research Institute                                                              2011 Research Portfolio




   Project Number   Project Title               Description

   P41.07.01.16b    MAAP 5 (QA)                 This project supports the MAAP5 software code, which was
                    (supplemental)              developed to model the core, primary system, and balance of plant of
                                                a nuclear reactor following a postulated severe core damage
                                                accident. The software follows core melt and relocation, primary
                                                system thermal hydraulics, and fission product transport. This
                                                software is benchmarked against numerous physical experiments. It
                                                provides finer nodalization than MAAP4 and will be particularly useful
                                                for designing and licensing new plants. The software is developed
                                                under 10CFR50 Appendix B QA requirements for regulatory
                                                applications.
   P41.07.01.16i    MAAP 4 (QA)                 This project supports the Modular Accident Analysis Package Version
                    (supplemental)              4 (MAAP4) software code, which models the core and primary system
                                                of a nuclear reactor following a postulated severe core damage
                                                accident. The software models accident sequence analysis through
                                                core heat-up, core melt and relocation, primary system thermal
                                                hydraulics, and fission product transport. This software is
                                                benchmarked against numerous physical experiments as well as
                                                other thermal-hydraulic and severe accident codes. The software is
                                                developed under 10CFR50 Appendix B QA requirements for
                                                regulatory applications.
   P41.07.01.17     On-Line Maintenance         Many countries have observed U.S. on-line maintenance (OLM)
                    (OLM) Assessment            practices and inquired as to their applicability and benefits outside the
                    (supplemental)              U.S. regulatory arena. Through an on-line maintenance assessment,
                                                EPRI supports utility efforts in evaluating and implementing on-line
                                                maintenance. The assessment consists of a review of U.S. OLM
                                                experience, interviews with utility staff to assess current situation and
                                                identify goals, and recommendations for potential OLM
                                                implementation strategies
   P41.07.01.17l    FTREX (supplemental)        This project supports continued development and maintenance of the
                                                FTREX software, which is widely used in the quantification of large
                                                fault trees. FTREX 1.0 was first issued in 2007, and faster, improved
                                                updates are released every 6 to 9 months.



Internal Event PRA (base) (068078)

Key Research Question
 Risk technology and probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) are currently being used in design, maintenance,
 and operational decision-making as well as in various regulatory interactions. The foundation for all of these
 applications, and for PRAs performed for other hazards (such as fires and earthquakes) is the PRA developed
 to address internal initiating events. Internal events are those events resulting from upsets in plant systems,
 ranging from turbine trips to design-basis loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs). Although methods for these PRAs
 have evolved significantly over the past 30 years, some areas continue to require further attention. In addition,
 as applications of PRA technology are increasingly a part of supporting plant operations, the need for improved
 tools to develop, maintain, and use the PRAs becomes increasingly important as well.

Approach
 This project addresses methods research, tools development, and data collection for Internal Events PRAs. In
 the area of methods, the project solicits input from nuclear plant operators, regulators, and the public on the
 current technical issues facing those who prepare PRAs and who apply them in a risk-informed framework.
 These issues are addressed through appropriate research efforts aimed at arriving at practical solutions. Among
 the issues that are addressed are those relating to defining and evaluating accident sequences, evaluating
 reliability data, assessing human reliability, and quantifying relevant risk measures. The solutions are developed


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Electric Power Research Institute                                                        2011 Research Portfolio




 in the form of technical reports and exchanges with member users through seminars and workshops. In the area
 of tools, this project performs fundamental research in the area of numerical and logic modeling techniques that
 result in improved software tools or approaches. In the area of data, this project collects data, such as that data
 relating to loss of offsite power or other industry experience, that supports the development of PRAs.

Impact
        Enhance quality of PRAs to support risk-informed applications more effectively
        Promote consistency and stability in the use of PRA in the regulatory environment
        Provide tools to make performance and application of PRAs more effective and efficient
        Foster a safety and risk-informed culture

How to Apply Results
 Members incorporate the guidance and tools produced through the Internal Events PRA effort into the
 development and use of plant-specific PRAs. These products are made available via technical reports, topic-
 specific workshops, and improved software tools. Members also can request individual expert support for more
 sophisticated guidance.

2011 Products
                                                                                  Planned
   Product Title & Description                                                                     Product Type
                                                                               Completion Date

   Resolution or Update of One PRA Scope and Quality Issue: Continue to
   resolve issues of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Scope and Quality        12/24/11        Technical Report
   associated with Internal Event PRAs.



Internal Fire PRA (base) (068084)

Key Research Question
 To support risk-informed regulation and continue improving plant safety and performance, key risk contributors
 must be analyzed in a cost-effective and realistic fashion. Events initiated as a result of fires within nuclear
 plants have been shown to contribute to the overall risk profile.

 In addition, risk-informed applications such as the Maintenance Rule and Risk-Managed Technical Specification
 (RMTS) need to address the potential contribution from fire events to meet regulatory expectations. Other risk-
 informed applications of fire risk include the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) 805, which defines
 deterministic and probabilistic rules for nuclear plant fire protection. Lastly, the American Nuclear Society, in
 collaboration with the American Society of Mechanical Engineers, has developed a Fire Probabilistic Risk
 Assessment Standard.

 Research to advance fire PRA methods to ensure that they are realistic and cost-effective is necessary to
 ensure that current, new, and proposed risk-informed regulations are cost effective, improve safety, and improve
 operational effectiveness.

Approach
 Fire PRAs are useful tools in evaluating the risk of fire-initiated events. Fire PRAs depend on a number of inputs
 including accurate data as well as a realistic assessment of fire growth, propagation, suppression, mitigation,
 and the effects of the fire on equipment and cables. The Fire Risk Methods projects develop and/or maintain the
 following:

        Fire PRA Methods to ensure consistent and robust methods for fire risk analysis




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Electric Power Research Institute                                                          2011 Research Portfolio




        Fire Event Database (FEDB) to provide fire data for establishing fire PRA inputs and evaluating the
         effectiveness of a variety of activities and event significance
        Fire Growth and Propagation tools and methods to model the growth, propagation, suppression, and
         mitigations of fire-initiated events in a realistic fashion
        Fire Effects Testing to benchmark and improve existing physical models of fire growth, propagation, and
         impacts on equipment and cables
        Risk-informed applications methods that provide the industry with guidance for using risk information
        Training to encourage and facilitate product use

Impact
        Potentially reduce compliance costs
        Contribute to efforts to provide regulatory stability
        Improve safety through use of risk-informed/performance-based approaches to fire protection
        Facilitate assessments of plant fire programs and define the fire risk significance of plant changes

How to Apply Results
 Members participate in training courses to learn how to develop fire scenario models and perform fire PRAs in-
 house. The results of these efforts will be used to make risk-informed decisions on plant changes and program
 aspects and to concentrate effort on the most risk-significant areas.

 Members also participate in the development of the fire PRA and fire modeling research efforts by providing
 input and feedback to the various technical guides and reports, databases, or tools.


Seismic Risk Analysis (base) (QA) (068085)

Key Research Question
 Seismic issues arise periodically due to regulatory concerns or actual seismic events. Because seismic issues
 can expose plants to significant economic risks, research is needed to develop consistent and realistic methods
 to analyze, address, and mitigate seismic risk. Although the use of risk-informed methods associated with
 internal events is fairly well established, those for external events are less so.

 The two established methods for assessing seismic risk are seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) and
 seismic margins assessments (SMA). Both methods have been used in the past, but not routinely or to support
 risk-informed applications for reducing unnecessary costs. Neither has been integrated with the internal events
 probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) on which they depend.

Approach
 This project maintains and improves seismic methods to resolve issues and decrease the cost of seismic
 assessments and seismic equipment qualification. Project activities focus on simplified and extensive seismic
 risk methods that are "used and useful" by plant engineers and regulators; SMA methods useful for developing
 plant seismic risk insights without SPRA; and approved risk-informed equipment seismic qualification methods.
 The project also monitors and informs regulatory programs to minimize costs for complying with seismic
 requirements. Specific areas of research and related activities include the following:

        Seismic Engineering (deterministic research)
          Seismic Hazard Revision
          Earthquake Experience Collection and Analysis
          New Technologies (base isolation)




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Electric Power Research Institute                                                       2011 Research Portfolio




        Seismic PRA (probabilistic research)
          Seismic PRA Methodology
          Seismic Risk Application
          Risk-Info rmed Seismic Margins

Impact
        Member ability to perform or manage seismic PRAs for their plants
        Risk-informed decision-making that incorporates seismic contributions
        Address significance determination of seismic related events or findings
        Improvements and maintenance of other seismic efforts such as margins analysis

How to Apply Results
 Member engineers will use the products to perform or manage seismic PRAs and seismic margins
 assessments.


Risk-Informed Regulation (base) (068094)

Key Research Question
 Risk-informed activities have become ingrained in nuclear plant operation in many countries, becoming a “win-
 win” for both the regulator and the plant owners. Risk-informed approaches allow the regulator to focus on
 issues truly important to safety while encouraging safety improvements, enabling operational flexibility, and
 providing an opportunity for cost reductions. Continued development and support is necessary to enable risk-
 informed activities to drive improvements in plant operational performance while continuing to improve safety.

Approach
 This project supports activities enabling the broad use of risk-informed approaches in multiple applications: the
 maintenance rule, risk informed in-service inspection, Risk-Managed Technical Specifications, Regulatory Guide
 1.200, the design basis for large loss of coolant accident (LOCA), and applications to digital instrumentation and
 control systems.

 As a risk-informed specialty, continued updates and improvements to configuration risk management processes
 can improve the safety and efficiency of plant maintenance activities. This project supports global dialogue on
 configuration risk management. The Configuration Risk Management Forum (CRMF) provides a forum for
 configuration risk management experts to coordinate the needs of the configuration risk management
 community and identify ways to enhance capabilities and benefits at nuclear power plants. This project also
 supports low-power and shutdown qualitative risk assessment methods, including participation in international
 PRA standards development that impacts risk assessment methods.

Impact
        Demonstrate robust application of PRA methods, tools, and results to support risk-informed regulatory
         initiatives
        Permit plant management to effectively prioritize and allocate resources to improve plant safety and
         economic performance
        Improve effectiveness of plant configuration risk management programs
        Support regulatory compliance




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Electric Power Research Institute                                                         2011 Research Portfolio




How to Apply Results
 Research in risk-informed industry initiatives often results in documentation that serves as implementation
 guidance for members. Methods and results also are communicated in various forums, including conferences,
 industry meetings, and specific application workshops and training sessions.

 The Configuration Risk Management Forum includes an annual meeting for configuration risk management
 stakeholders to discuss technical research and industry issues. The CRMF Steering Committee identifies and
 prioritizes areas where research and development is needed to enhance nuclear plant
 capabilities/competitiveness or to address emerging regulatory requirements.


PRA and Safety Training (base) (068104)

Key Research Question
 Nuclear plants face challenges in maintaining and expanding probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) staffs to
 support risk analyses and programs and in maintaining expertise with safety management and thermal-hydraulic
 codes. Some of the nuclear industry's trained personnel have left for other industries, been hired by regulatory
 agencies, or will retire in the near future. Because university-based PRA training programs are rare, nuclear
 plants must devote resources to on-site development of engineering staffs. Improved training and qualification
 programs are needed to more effectively develop trained and certified PRA personnel to perform risk
 management tasks, support operations through equipment configuration risk management, and support risk-
 informed applications and Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) submittals.

 Easily accessible and digestible management and staff training on risk, risk-informed regulation, and PRA
 applications is needed to socialize risk into the fabric of nuclear power plant operation. To address staff turnover
 and expanded use of risk assessment tools, training is also needed on safety management codes such as
 GOTHIC, MAAP, RETRAN, and VIPRE.

Approach
 PRA training needs are addressed by providing comprehensive training to educate the next generation of risk
 professionals and by providing overview training to decision-makers and nuclear plant specialists. The detailed
 training for new risk professionals is accomplished through a series of six one-week courses designed to
 provide the formal instruction necessary to qualify an engineer to work on a level 1 probabilistic risk
 assessment.

 The overview training is provided through one-hour computer-based training (CBT) modules designed for
 management and end users of risk technology. The courses cover PRA fundamentals, risk-informed and
 performance-based regulation, and PRA applications. To ensure that expertise in safety management codes is
 maintained, EPRI routinely offers training on GOTHIC, MAAP, RETRAN, and VIPRE.

Impact
 The Education of Risk Professionals program has exceeded expectations as an integral part of developing new
 risk professionals. The qualification time for new risk professionals can potentially be reduced from 3 years to
 less than 18 months by combining the Education of Risk Professionals training with mentoring and signoff by
 supervision at the workplace. Training on safety management codes provides the background necessary to
 apply these codes and keep current with new code developments.




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Electric Power Research Institute                                                            2011 Research Portfolio




How to Apply Results
 The EPRI Education of Risk Professionals PRA training provides the formal training portion, including “hands-
 on” exercises in support of utility mentoring and qualification programs. Computer-Based Training is
 downloadable from the EPRI website and available for training of management and engineering support
 personnel. Members needing safety management code training attend the courses of interest, which are
 arranged based on user needs.


Analysis of Other Risks and Hazards (base) (QA) (068106)

Key Research Question
 Nuclear plants are potentially exposed to a number of external risks and hazards, including the crashing of a
 commercial aircraft into a nuclear plant, an armed attack, high wind loads, toxic chemical releases, and various
 business, financial, and regulatory risks. Advanced methods and tools are needed to support the evaluation and
 management of these diverse hazards.

 For example, the industry has recognized the need to update the technical basis for emergency planning, which
 is currently rooted in analysis technology 30 years old. An updated emergency planning technical basis would
 be risk-informed and would account for the great increase in knowledge over the past 30 years.

Approach
 This project develops a wide range of methods and tools to address the many external issues that can impact
 nuclear plant safety risk. This research area develops methods (both qualitative and quantitative) and
 implements tools to permit evaluation and effective management of specific specialized hazards as they are
 identified.

 With respect to security, project activities establish the relative risks of security vulnerabilities at nuclear plants
 compared to other energy options (for generation decisions) and compared to other infrastructure threats (for
 security decisions). Past projects have included structural integrity studies in response to various external attack
 scenarios and an analysis of risk-informed defensive strategies to lessen or thwart the effectiveness of an
 imminent attack. With respect to emergency planning, the project develops improved modeling of plume
 radionuclide concentrations, dose rate tracking, evacuation modeling, and health effects assessment.

 With respect to other hazards and risks, the project develops methods to evaluate risks to power production,
 methods to effectively prioritize a portfolio of capital investment projects, and methods to characterize plant
 safety margins. This activity has significant interface with Life-Cycle Management (LCM) research in the EPRI
 Equipment Reliability Program and EPRI Long-Term Operations (LTO) research initiative.

Impact
        Evaluate the effects of aircraft impact on new and existing nuclear plant designs and assess inherent
         defensive capabilities of existing plant structures
        Simplify vulnerability assessments compared to past efforts
        Provide the basis for a risk-informed methodology quantifying the relative effectiveness of various offsite
         protective action strategies
        Provide an updated technical basis for emergency planning, including consideration of a risk-informed
         approach and quantification of the margin in the required 10-mile emergency planning zone
        Demonstrate robust application of risk and hazard analyses to support effective, efficient risk
         management
        Permit plant management to effectively prioritize and allocate resources to improve plant safety and
         economic performance




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Electric Power Research Institute                                                                  2011 Research Portfolio




How to Apply Results
 EPRI research addressing other plant risks and hazards results in methods and application software that
 supports effective and efficient analysis of these risks—in terms of their impact on plant safety, plant operations,
 plant economics, and other parameters. Results obtained are used to support effective decision-making that
 accounts for these risks and their potential impacts. Methods and results also are communicated in various
 forums, including conferences, industry meetings, and specific application workshops and training sessions.


PHOENIX Technology Development (supplemental) (QA)

Key Research Question
 As the use of risk technology permeates nuclear plant design, maintenance, and operation, risk practitioners
 need advanced tools capable of reflecting the current plant configuration and condition (including the operation
 state, ambient conditions, any degraded equipment or states). Greater regulatory attention to additional risks
 and hazards reinforces the need for an all-modes risk tool.

Approach
 This project supports development of PHOENIX, an all-modes and all-hazards advanced risk tool that provides
 an integrated risk profile of the plant. PHOENIX will be capable of interfacing with inspection and automated log
 books, remote equipment monitoring devices, and materials degradation matrices to provide the most current
 information to operators and other decision-makers when these tools and interfaces become available.

 PHOENIX highly leverages existing technology and its development is planned in several major phases over a
 5-year period. The first phase is the integration of various probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) software for
 model building into a more powerful and consistent platform. The second phase is the addition of risk-monitoring
 phases and the addition of existing advanced modeling and quantification technology.

 Follow-on phases include the addition of new technology capable of integrating additional databases and
 information archives, and external interfaces will be added.

Impact
 PHOENIX represents the next generation of risk tools that are consistent, integrated, and capable of expansion
 beyond traditional risk analysis.

How to Apply Results
 PHOENIX will be used by existing staff in a similar manner as existing risk tools and monitors.

2011 Products
                                                                                            Planned
   Product Title & Description                                                                             Product Type
                                                                                         Completion Date

   PHOENIX - Integrated Platform - Release 1: PHOENIX highly leverages
   existing technology, and the first step is the integration of various probabilistic
   risk assessment (PRA) software, both model building and risk monitoring, into a
                                                                                            12/31/11         Software
   more powerful and consistent platform. Release 1.0 provides the first version of
   the fully integrated risk tool platform, including risk-model development and risk-
   monitoring software.




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Electric Power Research Institute                                                       2011 Research Portfolio




PRA Scope & Quality (supplemental) (059410)

Key Research Question
 Risk technology and probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) are currently being used in design, maintenance,
 and operational decision-making as well as in various regulatory interactions. A significant issue in the use of
 risk technology is the scope and quality, or technical adequacy, of the PRAs supporting these uses. For PRAs to
 have maximum utility, technology improvements must be captured and transmitted to PRA practitioners.

Approach
 The PRA Scope and Quality project provides a vehicle for developing PRA guidance based on state-of-the-art
 technology. This project also provides a means for transmitting this technology to end users through seminars,
 workshops, and webcasts. The PRA Scope and Quality project solicits input from nuclear plant operators,
 regulators, and the public on the current technical issues facing risk-informed regulation. These issues are
 prioritized and resolved through a combination of research and development and consensus building among the
 stakeholders. The result is a consensus guide that provides a clear, cost-effective, and consistent approach for
 addressing specific technical issues.

Impact
        Enable risk-informed applications
        Create consistent high-quality PRA and submittals
        Encourage sStability in the regulatory environment
        Foster a safety and risk-informed culture

How to Apply Results
 The PRA Scope and Quality committee meets several times a year to review, prioritize, and resolve PRA scope
 and quality issues. The research and development activities are accomplished using a collaborative process to
 develop issue-specific guidance, subject to peer review and pilot evaluation. Members apply the resulting risk
 guidance in plant-specific PRAs and risk-informed applications.


PRA Documentation Assistant (supplemental) (063062)

Key Research Question
 Maintaining and upgrading a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is resource intensive. Documenting the PRA
 model changes is daunting and time consuming. Tools and technologies that minimize the manual handling of
 PRA documentation and data can reduce the overall resource burden associated with PRAs.

Approach
 The PRA Documentation Assistant (PRA DocAssist) Project develops software tools and features for
 automating and managing the documentation process. This includes capturing key information about the model,
 developing the tools and processes that preserve cross-links to related information, and tracing the evolution of
 PRA assumptions and models. In addition, sharing of industry best practices on the configuration control of the
 PRA model and its associated documentation will lead to a more consistent industry approach and further
 resource reduction. The project will build on existing EPRI tools with input from a utility committee. Training,
 support, and a maintenance version of the code will be available to participants.

Impact
 Reductions in the required resources through automation and process improvements can significantly increase
 PRA staff productivity. Furthermore, ready access to the documentation can reduce the resource burden
 associated with regulatory interaction on risk-informed applications (for example, Significance Determination
 Process [SDP], Mitigating Systems Performance Index [MSPI], and others) and peer reviewers, as well as



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Electric Power Research Institute                                                          2011 Research Portfolio




 enhance the ability to demonstrate compliance with PRA standards. An additional benefit of the project will be
 the ability to more quickly familiarize new staff, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), and PRA peer
 reviewers with the PRA model and documentation.

How to Apply Results
 The software and approaches developed in this project can be immediately implemented by the plant PRA staff
 by importing any existing documentation into the system. Further benefits are obtained by making the software
 part of daily use by the PRA engineers. This project provides the tools, techniques, and plant experience
 support to help members best customize the software configurations and work flows to meet the needs of their
 PRA models and staff capabilities.


NFPA 805 and Fire PRA (supplemental) (068087)

Key Research Question
 As the nuclear industry addresses current and emerging fire protection issues, and as some plants begin the
 transition to National Fire Protection Association (NFPA)-805, technical assistance is often needed to support
 the development of Fire Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) and risk-informed, performance-based fire
 protection. There is an ancillary need to provide a forum for communication among utilities going through the
 transition.

Approach
 EPRI and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Research published a Fire PRA Methodology Guide
 (EPRI 1011989 / NUREG/CR 6850) in 2006. The methods in this report have been piloted and a joint
 EPRI/NRC effort is in progress to revise the Guide. Among the issues being addressed to date are change
 process, change evaluations, fire-induced multiple spurious operations, fire-related human reliability analysis
 (HRA), operator manual actions, and non-conforming barriers. A Fire PRA User Group has been established to
 respond to technical and procedural questions on the use of fire probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods.

Impact
 The cooperative effort between EPRI and NRC has resulted in the availability of the methodology guide and the
 resolution of several previously contentious issues. The project communication forum will allow for timely
 resolution of plant-specific issues as well as generic issues as they emerge in the transition process.

How to Apply Results
 Results will be reflected in revisions to of the Guide and in individual EPRI-issue guidance reports. The first of
 these reports is EPRI 1013489, Use of Fire PRA Methodology in Estimating Risk Impact of Plant Changes.
 Other guidance documents will be used by utility personnel in their development of fire probabilistic risk
 assessments (1019259) and their implementation of risk-informed and performance-based fire protection.




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Electric Power Research Institute                                                          2011 Research Portfolio




SQUG/SEQUAL (supplemental) (QA) (057060)

Key Research Question
 Seismic qualification of nuclear plant equipment and components remains an ongoing concern as additional
 data from seismic events are collected and analyzed. In the United States, Nuclear Regulatory Commission
 (NRC) Unresolved Safety Issue (USI) A-46 required seismic re-evaluation of the equipment in older operating
 plants to render plant seismic ruggedness comparable to newer plants in which the equipment was qualified to
 newer standards.

Approach
 EPRI instituted the Seismic Qualification Utility Group (SQUG) to resolve NRC Unresolved Safety Issue A-46,
 “Seismic Qualification of Equipment in Older Nuclear Power Plants.” EPRI and the nuclear plant community
 successfully resolved the issue through development and implementation of an experience-based method that
 uses equipment performance data from power and industrial facilities that have undergone actual earthquakes.
 The SQUG/ Seismic Experience-Based Qualification (SEQUAL) program continues to investigate earthquakes
 to add to the database, add new equipment classes, and develop and implement methods for experience-based
 seismic qualification of replacement equipment and parts. SQUG/SEQUAL also promotes the use of the
 experience-based methodology to its international members and to organizations beyond the nuclear
 community.

Impact
 Provide a cost-effective methodology for evaluating the seismic ruggedness of nuclear plant equipment without
 costly seismic shake table testing or analysis.

How to Apply Results
 Member engineers apply the SQUG methods to assess the seismic ruggedness of plant equipment; perform
 seismic evaluations of plant changes for heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC), overhead cranes,
 and piping; and qualify new and replacement equipment and parts.


Risk-Informed Option 2 User Group (supplemental) (061435)

Key Research Question
 10CFR50.69 allows the licensee to reduce the “nuclear special treatment” requirements currently imposed upon
 structures, systems, and components (SSCs) for those SSCs determined to be low-safety significant.
 Resources have been mainly dedicated to defining and conducting trial applications of risk-informed
 classification criteria, responding to Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) comments, and supporting issuance
 of the final rule language and supporting guidance (for example, Regulatory Guide 1.201, Rev1). Now that the
 rule and accompanying guidance have been approved, there is a need to investigate, develop, and document
 appropriate “good practice” processes for plant-specific implementation of 10CFR50.69.

Approach
 This project develops guidance to streamline the licensing process and define appropriate treatment practices
 for low safety significant SSCs. A project technical steering committee consisting of licensee personnel has
 been established to provide a forum for plant personnel to communicate issues, discuss resolution possibilities,
 review best practices, and benchmark against other plants’ practices. The technical steering committee will work
 with EPRI to prioritize the list of activities and provide input/direction for the program. EPRI will coordinate with
 other user groups and industry efforts, including licensees and owners groups, and will interface with other EPRI
 projects addressing equipment qualification, seismic issues, pressure boundary components, procurement to
 develop good practice documents, and technical basis.



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Electric Power Research Institute                                                         2011 Research Portfolio




Impact
 Defining effective practices for classifying applicable SSCs and treatment practices for low-safety significant
 SSCs is an important part of achieving a successful 10CFR50.69 program. This step can result in significant
 cost savings while maintaining and/or improving the reliability and performance of SSCs.

How to Apply Results
 Project participants will use the results to streamline classification of applicable SSCs and develop treatment
 processes for low-safety significant SSCs.


GOTHIC Advisory Group (QA) (supplemental) (004444)

Key Research Question
 Software codes are used to perform thermo-hydraulic safety analyses of reactor containment buildings for
 regulatory applications. Feedback and input from users can help define needed improvements, enhance training
 effectiveness, and increase industry application.

Approach
 This project develops software, procedures, and applications guidance for conducting three-dimensional
 analyses of reactor containment buildings under accident conditions. The user group provides guidance on new
 software features, as well as training and user support for the software.

 GOTHIC Version 7.2b (QA) and prior versions of software (QA) were developed and are being maintained by
 EPRI in a manner compliant with Title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulations Part 50 (10 CFR 50) Appendix B
 Quality Assurance and 10 CFR 21.

Impact
 The GOTHIC code is widely used by utilities for performing thermo-hydraulic safety analyses of reactor
 containment buildings. The large user group results in ongoing refinement and modifications that enhance its
 value in addressing regulatory applications and responding to regulatory requests for additional information.

How to Apply Results
 The Gothic User Group provides the software, upgrades, technical support, and training required to use
 GOTHIC.

2011 Products
                                                                                  Planned
   Product Title & Description                                                                     Product Type
                                                                               Completion Date

   GOTHIC 8.1.beta                                                                 11/30/11          Software




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Electric Power Research Institute                                                        2011 Research Portfolio




HRA/PRA Tool User Group (QA) (supplemental) (049250)

Key Research Question
 EPRI formed the Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) User Group and developed the HRA Calculator in response
 to member needs to promote quality and consistency in the use of HRA calculation methods and to consolidate
 these methods into a comprehensive software tool. The mission has expanded to include development of fire
 HRA methods, involvement in HRA benchmarking projects, and tracking of other research efforts in HRA.
 Continued development and maintenance of the software are necessary to sustain and expand its usefulness to
 the nuclear industry.

Approach
 The HRA User Group has developed a software tool, the HRA Calculator, to support increased consistency in
 the use of HRA methods. The User Group seeks to maintain the software, improve its usefulness, and add
 capabilities where needed. The HRA User Group also provides training on the software at least twice each year.
 In addition, the User Group participates in the benchmarking of HRA methods and in other research areas
 aimed at improving HRA methods.

Impact
 The HRA Calculator provides users with an effective software tool capable of applying a variety of HRA
 methods. The major methods implemented in the HRA Calculator are those developed by EPRI, including the
 Cause-Based Decision Tree Method (CBDTM) and the Human Cognitive Reliability with Operator Reliability
 Experiment (HCR/ORE) approach. The HRA Calculator also incorporates such methods as the Technique for
 Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP) and the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-HRA (SPAR-H) method. The
 user group continues to grow in its industry leadership role as recognized by the NRC and other entities seeking
 EPRI participation in the area of human reliability analysis.

How to Apply Results
 The methods and software developed in this project can be immediately implemented by plant PRA staff
 responsible for performing human reliability analysis. Additionally, training on the HRA methods and the HRA
 Calculator software provides an efficient mechanism for members to expand capabilities to perform these
 evaluations.


Risk and Reliability User Group (supplemental) (003888)

Key Research Question
 Risk practitioners rely on tools such as the Risk and Reliability Workstation to achieve substantial efficiencies
 when performing risk analyses for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) applications. Feedback and input from
 users can help define needed improvements, enhance training effectiveness, and increase industry application.

Approach
 A suite of computer software tools has been developed to support risk evaluation and plant operations. This
 includes fault tree codes (CAFTA), scheduling and risk mitigation tools (EOOS), and software for specialized
 analyses (for example, FRANX for fire PRA). Guidelines are produced to aid the engineer, and regular training
 sessions are conducted. Meetings are held several times per year to promote training on the use of the software
 and provide a forum for sharing results and methods among peers.

Impact
 The project has resulted in near 100% use of the Risk and Reliability Workstation software by U.S. plants and is
 widely used in international nuclear units and in other industries. The project provides a cost-effective method



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Electric Power Research Institute                                                        2011 Research Portfolio




 for members to provide input into and prioritize needed enhancements to the risk tools. It also provides a useful
 forum from which experiences from the user community can be shared.

How to Apply Results
 The software, training, and user support available to members of the Risk and Reliability User Group is directly
 applicable by risk practitioners. Lessons learned from user group meetings can be incorporated into utility risk
 approaches as necessary. Software, training, and user support are available to members of the Risk and
 Reliability (R&R) User Group. Meetings held several times a year promote training on the use of the software
 and provide a forum for sharing results and methods among peers.

2011 Products
                                                                                 Planned
   Product Title & Description                                                                    Product Type
                                                                              Completion Date

   FRANX 5.0: FRANX version to do flooding evaluation analysis                    11/15/11          Software



Future Year Products
                                                                                 Planned
   Product Title & Description                                                                    Product Type
                                                                              Completion Date

   FRANX 6.0: Advanced version of FRANX to do seismic PRA analyses                11/19/12          Software



MAAP 5 (QA) (supplemental) (050159)

Key Research Question
 New regulatory applications and new nuclear plant designs introduce accident conditions and scenarios that the
 existing Modular Accident Analysis Package (MAAP4) can’t address. An improved version, therefore, is needed
 for robust safety analyses related to the post-accident behavior of the core and thermal hydraulics of the primary
 and secondary systems, including fission product release and transport.

Approach
 This project supports continued development and maintenance of the MAAP5 software code, which was
 developed to model the core, primary system, and balance of plant of a nuclear reactor following a postulated
 severe core damage accident. The software follows core melt and relocation, primary system thermal
 hydraulics, and fission product transport. This software is benchmarked against numerous physical experiments.
 It provides finer nodalization than MAAP4 and will be particularly useful for designing and licensing new plants.
 The software is developed under 10CFR50 Appendix B QA requirements for regulatory applications. Both
 Windows and Linux versions of the software are available.

Impact
 MAAP5 will be extensively used for the design of current and new generations of nuclear reactors. The
 analytical results generated by MAAP5 will be important in the final licensing of the new designs.

How to Apply Results
 The software comes with a complete users manual, including solved examples. An applications manual has
 been developed to provide users guidance for specific, frequently encountered analyses. User Group meetings
 and training (both in person and web-based sessions) are provided.




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Electric Power Research Institute                                                         2011 Research Portfolio




2011 Products
                                                                                  Planned
   Product Title & Description                                                                      Product Type
                                                                               Completion Date

   MAAP 5.2 Beta: Advanced version of MAAP5.1 focusing on additional
   experimental benchmarks



MAAP 4 (QA) (supplemental) (003068)

Key Research Question
 Nuclear plant owners must perform severe accident analysis in support of regulatory and safety applications.
 Such analyses depend on the ability to model and assess the behavior of the reactor core and fission products
 (for example, probability risk assessment [PRA] success criteria and accident sequence time and human
 reliability analysis). MAAP4 software and applications guidance were developed to fill these needs.

Approach
 This project supports continued development and maintenance of the Modular Accident Analysis Package
 Version 4 (MAAP4) software code, which models the core and primary system of a nuclear reactor following a
 postulated severe core damage accident. The software models accident sequence analysis through core heat-
 up, core melt and relocation, primary system thermal hydraulics, and fission product transport. This software is
 benchmarked against numerous physical experiments as well as other thermal-hydraulic and severe accident
 codes. MAAP4 remains one of the few integrated thermal-hydraulic severe accident codes available. The
 software is developed under 10CFR50 Appendix B QA requirements for regulatory applications. Both Windows
 and Linux versions of the software are available.

Impact
 Utilities use MAAP software to assess the Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR) Chapter 15 analyses and to
 identify appropriate success criteria, perform accident sequence analysis, and identify human reliability timing in
 probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs). It has a large user group and is the code of choice for members to
 address regulatory applications and to respond to Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Requests for
 Additional Information (RAIs).

How to Apply Results
 The software comes with a complete users manual, including solved examples. An applications manual has
 been developed to provide user guidance for specific, frequently encountered analyses. User group meetings
 and training (both in person and web-based sessions) are provided.

2011 Products
                                                                                  Planned
   Product Title & Description                                                                      Product Type
                                                                               Completion Date

   MAAP4 version 4.0.8: Updated version of MAAP4                                   09/15/11          Software




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Electric Power Research Institute                                                         2011 Research Portfolio




On-Line Maintenance (OLM) Assessment (supplemental)

Key Research Question
 On-line maintenance (OLM) can offer significant operational, economic, and safety benefits. Many countries
 have observed U.S. on-line maintenance practices and inquired as to their applicability and recognized benefits
 outside the U.S. regulatory arena. Realizing these benefits and ensuring effective implementation, however,
 requires a careful consideration of plant capabilities, maintenance culture, and regulatory limitations.

Approach
 Through an OLM assessment, EPRI supports utility efforts in evaluating and implementing on-line maintenance.
 The assessment consists of working sessions with the following elements:

        Review of U.S. OLM experience—practices, support systems and evolution to current status
        Interviews with key utility staff to determine the utility’s current situation and goals related to OLM
        Recommendations identifying of key considerations, potential benefits, and potential OLM implementation
         strategies specific to the utility’s situation and goals

 The assessment will be conducted over a 4-day period at the utility with two EPRI staff to support the workshop.
 The first two elements (review of U.S. OLM experience and discussions and interviews with key utility staff) are
 anticipated to take place in the first two days and the third element (EPRI recommendations) on the fourth day.


Impact
 The assessment will provide member utilities with an understanding of the several areas in which OLM differs
 from outage maintenance, but that are important in planning for the introduction of OLM. These include risk and
 safety, regulatory, maintenance practice, and work management considerations. Additionally, the EPRI
 recommendations will help the member utility determine where it has strengths and gaps related to moving
 forward with OLM and, thus, the most appropriate implementation strategies.

How to Apply Results
 The results of the assessment can immediately support decisions related to use of OLM and assist in identifying
 OLM implementation strategies. The primary products will be a review of U.S. OLM experience, a summary of
 utility interviews, and EPRI recommendations.


FTREX (supplemental) (063727)

Key Research Question
 As risk is increasingly employed in routine decision-making, the ability to rapidly produce results is needed.
 Advanced quantification engines such as FTREX are needed to support state-of-the-art analysis of large fault
 trees.

Approach
 This project supports continued development and maintenance of the FTREX software, which is widely used in
 the quantification of large fault trees.

Impact
 FTREX is currently the fastest solution engine for solving PRA fault trees currently available from any source. It
 is especially useful for large models of systems and plants. It typically reduces the solution times from many
 hours to a few minutes of computer time.



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Electric Power Research Institute                                   2011 Research Portfolio




How to Apply Results
 FTREX is a simple add-in module for PRA type software.

2011 Products
                                                             Planned
   Product Title & Description                                              Product Type
                                                          Completion Date

   FTREX 1.6 beta                                            09/15/11         Software




Risk and Safety Management - Program 41.07.01                                              p. 20

								
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