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					                                                                                                                                                     4
                                                                                                                                         Energy
                                                                                                                                        and the
Oil wells in California.
                                                                                                                                         Future
GOALS
When you have finished this chapter you                    Fossil Fuels                                                 • Define geothermal energy and give some
should be able to complete the goals •                                                                                    methods of using it.
                                                            4.5   Liquid Fuels
given for each section below:                                     Vehicles Are the Biggest Users                   4.10 Clean Energy II
                                                                  • Compare the average fuel efficiency of cars
                                                                                                                        Variable Sources
The Energy Problem                                                  in the United States with that of cars              • Describe ways to make use of the energy
 4.1    Population and Prosperity                                   elsewhere and give some reasons for the               contents of sunlight, wind, tides, and waves.
        What Drives World Energy Demand                             difference.                                    4.11 Energy Storage
        • State the approximate year in which                     • Give the advantages and disadvantages of            Options for Variable Sources and Vehicles
          world population is expected to level off,                hybrid cars.                                        • Describe methods of bulk storage of elec-
          what the maximum population might                 4.6   Natural Gas                                             tric energy.
          then be, and which two countries then                   The Least Bad Fossil Fuel                             • Explain the difference between storage
          would have the most people.                             • Explain why natural gas is the least                  batteries and fuel cells.
 4.2    Energy Consumption                                          objectionable fossil fuel.                          • Compare electric, hybrid, and fuel-cell cars.
        High Today, Higher Tomorrow                               • Describe shale and clathrate sources of        4.12 Biofuels
        • Explain why energy demand is likely to                    natural gas.                                        Yes, But
          grow faster than world population.                4.7   Coal                                                  • Compare the advantages and disadvan-
        • Identify the various fossil fuels, trace their          Plentiful but Worst for the Environment                 tages of the various biofuel sources.
          energy contents to their ultimate origin,               • List the advantages and disadvantages of            • Explain the attractions of cellulosic ethanol.
          and compare their reserves.                               coal as a fuel and account for its wide and
 4.3    Global Warming                                              increasing use despite the severity of the    Strategies for the Future
        A Serious Threat                                            disadvantages.                                 4.13 Conservation
        • Discuss the evidence for global warming.                • Describe the carbon capture and storage             Less Is More
        • State the probable maximum global tem-                    method of dealing with CO2 emissions                • Give examples of opportunities to con-
          perature rise that would avoid large-scale                from power plants.                                    serve energy in everyday life.
          catastrophe.                                                                                             4.14 What Governments Must Do
        • Describe what such a catstrophe would            Alternative Sources
                                                                                                                        Their Role Is Crucial
          involve.                                          4.8   A Nuclear World?                                      • Describe what is meant by a cap-and-
 4.4    Carbon Dioxide and the Greenhouse                         Perhaps On the Way                                      trade system for controlling CO2 emis-
        Effect                                                    • Compare nuclear fission and nuclear                   sions and compare it with a carbon tax.
        The Cause of Global Warming                                 fusion as energy sources.                           • Compare the average annual CO2 emissions
        • Explain the greenhouse effect and how it                • State the approximate percentage of                   per person in the United States and China,
          acts to heat the atmosphere.                              electricity in the United States that comes           their total emissions, and their positions on
        • State the role of carbon dioxide in global                from nuclear energy and explain why no                controlling these emissions. Account for the
          warming and give examples of other                        new nuclear plants have been built for                importance of these countries in CO2 control.
          greenhouse gases.                                         many years.                                         • Give the reasons why the Copenhagen
        • Outline the role of deforestation in global       4.9   Clean Energy I                                          conference on CO2 emissions
          warming.                                                Continuous Sources                                      was a failure.

                                                                                                                                                                    93
94      4-2               Chapter 4   Energy and the Future


                          The rise of modern civilization would have been impossible without the dis-
                          covery of vast resources of energy and the development of ways to trans-
                          form it into useful forms. All that we do requires energy. The more energy
                          we have at our command, the better we can satisfy our desires for food,
                          clothing, shelter, warmth, light, transport, communication, and manufac-
                          tured goods.
                               Unfortunately oil and natural gas, the most convenient fuels, although
                          currently abundant, have become expensive, have limited reserves, and,
                          together with the more plentiful coal, are largely responsible for global
                          warming through the carbon dioxide their burning produces. Other energy
                          sources have handicaps of one kind or another, some serious, as well as
                          good features. Nuclear fusion, the ultimate energy source, remains a tech-
                          nology of the future at best.
                               At the same time, world population is increasing and people everywhere
                          seek better lives, both factors that bring a need for more and more energy.
                          The Industrial Revolution of the nineteenth century was powered largely by
                          coal; in the twentieth century oil and gas became the leading fuels. Nothing
                          is more important today than the choice and implementation of an appropri-
                          ate energy strategy for the twenty-first century.
                               This is an unusual chapter for this book both because it is nontechni-
                          cal and because it covers some of the essential social, economic, and even
                          political dimensions of its subject, which does not exist in a vacuum. The
                          decisions that businesses and governments make now and in the future are
                          critical, and it is essential that they be made in full view of an informed pub-
                          lic. In this chapter the energy problem in all its complexity is considered in
                          one place so how its various parts fit together is clear. Even though scientific
                          elements that cannot be properly discussed this early in the book are left for
                          later chapters, the basic ideas are all here so that those who do not cover the
                          entire text can view the situation as a whole and appreciate how it affects
                          them (and how they affect it).

     The Energy Problem
                          The energy problem has three elements:
                           1. Ever-increasing demand for energy driven by an expanding world popu-
                              lation and its growing prosperity.
                           2. Inevitable decline in the economical supply of fossil fuels, which now
                              furnish about 85 percent of the world’s energy.
                           3. Carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels is the chief contributor to
                              the global warming that affects life on earth.
                          We will look at these matters in turn before going on to examine present and
                          future sources of energy and then considering how best to secure the future
                          while continuing to meet the most essential of our needs.


                          4.1 Population and Prosperity
                          What Drives World Energy Demand
                          For most of the hundred thousand or so years that modern humans have
                          existed there were too few of them to have much effect on their resources
                          or environments. Twelve thousand years ago, when agriculture began, the
                          world’s human population was probably about 5 million. It was perhaps 500
                          million in 1650, 1 billion in 1850, and 1.6 billion as recently as 1900. It is
                          about 7 billion today and is climbing rapidly (Fig. 4-1). The current rate of
The Energy Problem                                                                                                                     4-3            95


population increase is a little over 230,000 per day—another United States                            12
every 4 years, another China every 18 years.
                                                                                                      10
Future Population It is obvious that the world’s population cannot keep




                                                                                     Billions of people
                                                                                                          8
growing at the present rate, and indeed must decrease. Already, according
to the U.N. Environment Program, “the human population is now so large                                    6
that the amount of resources needed to sustain it exceeds what is available at
current consumption patterns.” An average fertility rate of 2.1 children per                              4
woman (the 0.1 takes into account girls who do not live to adulthood) means
a constant population. Over 60 countries have already reached this rate or                                2
even less; it is 2.05 in the United States, 1.2 in Japan and South Korea, 1.3 in
Spain and Italy. In other countries, however, fertility rates are higher. In sub-




                                                                                                          1600

                                                                                                                 1700

                                                                                                                        1800

                                                                                                                                1900

                                                                                                                                        2000

                                                                                                                                               2100

                                                                                                                                                         2200
                                                                                                                                                      A.D.
Saharan Africa, the overall fertility rate is 5.4. Africa’s population is expected
to quadruple before stabilizing, the last region to do so.                                                                     Year
     The annual rate of unintended pregnancies worldwide is thought to be
comparable to the rate of population increase. Poverty, low status of women,         Figure 4-1 World population
                                                                                     according to United Nations figures—
ignorance, tradition, and the doctrines of some religions all contribute to
                                                                                     currently about 7 billion. Estimates
rising populations by obstructing access to the safe and efficient family plan-
                                                                                     for future population vary widely.
ning methods already used in much of the world. Nevertheless, a global shift         Shown is an optimistic projection with
to smaller families, with every child a wanted child, has begun. In China,           a peak of about 9.2 billion in 2050. An
whose population is now 1.3 billion, fertility halved between 1970 and 1996;         eventual decrease in population would
in Bangladesh, with 150 million people, a similar reduction took even less           be the first since the Black Death of the
time.                                                                                fourteenth century. Unless the decrease
     As Fig.  4-1 shows, hopeful but plausible estimates of world population         occurs in time, resources of all kinds will
suggest a leveling off at around 9.2 billion by 2050, 1½ more Chinas for the         give out and the environment, already
earth to support than today. (If current fertility rates were unchanged, there       under threat, will turn hostile.
would be over a billion more of us than that.) By 2050 India is likely to have
passed China as the most populous nation and might then have more people
than there were in the entire world in 1900. After peaking in 2050 the curve
of Fig. 4-1 is projected to turn downward. If that happens, an eventual popu-
lation fall to a stable size that permits comfortable lives for everybody might
then occur.
     What would a sustainable population count for the earth be? Half of
today’s figure? A third? Even less? Nobody knows because any estimate must
involve a wide variety of factors, many without reliable numbers attached.
What is clear, however, is that there are too many people today for the world
to support for much longer both their demands on natural resources and
their assaults on the environment in which they live.
Prosperity In parallel with a ballooning population is a broad rise in pros-
perity. In 1990 nearly 30 percent of the world’s people lived on less than the
equivalent of $1/day; today the proportion (still a disgrace) is down to half
that, which means more energy use per person. Higher up the economic lad-
der, life is also getting better, which has the same effect. As an example of
what this implies for the future, we can compare car ownership in China
(1.3 billion people) with that in the United States (310 million people). These
were recently about 40 and 800 cars/1000 people, respectively. Incomes in
China are increasing by 9 to 10 percent/year (China expects to expand its
middle class to at least half its population by 2020) and in 2009 it became
the world’s largest car market. Even if China never catches up with the car
ownership rate of the United States, in time there will be hundreds of millions
more cars there gobbling up fuel of some kind. In India (1.1 billion largely
poor people), whose population and economy are both growing steadily, car
sales are increasing by over 20 percent each year; some new cars there cost
as little as $2500. The world’s automotive fleet, now over 900 million cars, is
expected to grow to 2 billion by 2050.
96        4-4                               Chapter 4   Energy and the Future



                                            4.2 Energy Consumption
                                            High Today, Higher Tomorrow
                                            As the world economy expands, so does its consumption of energy. In the
                                            advanced countries, the standard of living is already high and their popu-
                                            lations are stable, so their need for energy is unlikely to grow very much.
                                            Indeed, this need may even decline as their energy use becomes more effi-
                                            cient. Elsewhere, rates of energy consumption are still low, less than 1 kW
                                            per person for more than half the people of the world compared with about
                                            10.5 kW per person in the United States (Fig.  4-2). These people seek bet-
                                            ter lives, which means more energy, and their numbers are swelling, which
                                            means still more energy. About a tenth of all spending in the United States
                                            goes to energy.
                                                 Figure  4-3 shows world energy consumption from 1980 to the present
                                            together with three projections for the future. The middle curve assumes an
                                            average annual rise in energy use of 1 percent in the advanced countries and
                                            a 3 percent rise in other countries, figures thought to be realistic. The bottom
                                            curve corresponds to a lower rate of economic growth than anticipated and
                                            the top curve to a higher rate. The midrange estimate for 2030 is nearly one
                                            and a half times today’s energy consumption.
                                                 Almost all the energy available to us today has a single source—the sun.
                                            Light and heat reach us directly from the sun; food and wood owe their
                                            energy content to photosynthesis (Sec. 13.12) powered by sunlight falling on
                                            plants; water power exists because the sun’s heat evaporates water from the
                                            oceans that falls later as rain and snow on high ground; wind power comes


Figure 4-2
                                                         Energy consumption per person, kW




                 Energy use per person in
various countries. The energy needs of                                                                                           10.5
the huge populations at the lower end                                                                                 10.0
of the list are increasing. China alone
has a population of 1.3 billion and its
energy consumption is growing at over                                                                                                        6.0
                                                                                                                                                    5.6
four times the world average; it has                                                                                                                          5.1
                                                                                                                       5.0
accounted for 80 percent of the world’s
new power plants in recent years and                                                                                                                                2.4
is expected to continue doing so for                                                                                                                                          1.7      1.5
years to come. The United Kingdom                                                                                                                                                                 0.7     0.3
consists of England, Scotland, Wales,                                                                                     0
                                                                                                                                   es


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and Northern Ireland. Senegal is a fairly
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typical African country.
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Figure 4-3     Annual world energy                                                                                    1000
                                                                                       Total energy consumption, EJ




                                                                                                                                                 High economic growth
consumption 1980–2030. The energy
                                                                                                                                                 Projected economic growth
unit is the exojoule (EJ), where                                                                                       800
                                                                                                                                                 Low economic growth
1 EJ = 1018 J = 24 million tons of oil
equivalent. Most of the future increase                                                                                600
in energy consumption is expected to
come from developing countries with                                                                                    400
large populations, mainly China and
India.                                                                                                                 200

                                                                                                                          0
                                                                                                                          1980              1990         2000          2010           2020              2030

                                                                                                                                                                                Estimated
                                                                                                                                                                Year
The Energy Problem                                                                                                                     4-5     97


from motions in the atmosphere due to unequal heating of the earth’s surface                                                    Renewable
                                                                                                                           (hydroelectric, wind,
by the sun. The fossil fuels coal, oil, and natural gas were formed from the
                                                                                                                                solar, etc.)
remains of plants and animals that contain energy derived from sunlight mil-                                         Nuclear        9%
lions of years ago. Only nuclear energy, tidal energy, and heat from sources                                           6%
inside the earth cannot be traced to the sun’s rays (Figs. 4-4 and 4-5).

Future Sources     Fossil fuels, which today furnish by far the greatest part of
the world’s energy, cannot last forever. As their reserves decline, their prices
will go up accordingly, which is already happening. The increased cost of                                 Natural gas                   Coal
                                                                                                             24%                        23%
energy will burden all economies, especially those of developing countries,
which use energy less efficiently. For instance, China needs over twice as
much energy as the United States does per unit of output.
     The Stone Age did not end because the world ran out of stones but                                                      Oil
                                                                                                                           38%
because superior technologies came into being. The same will be true for fos-
sil fuels: well before they actually run out, they will be replaced because they
have become too expensive, both in terms of money and in terms of the harm                                              Fossil fuels
they cause to the environment. Then renewable and nuclear (fission and,                                Figure 4-4 Sources of commercial
perhaps, fusion) energies will become the principal energy sources.                                    energy production worldwide. Fossil
     Petroleum—more familiarly, oil—will be the first fossil fuel whose trend                          fuels are responsible for 85 percent of
in Fig. 4-5 will begin to turn downward. At present, the world uses over 85                            the world’s energy consumption (apart
million barrels of oil per day (a quarter of that by the United States) and                            from firewood, still widely used, which
demand is still rising. And at least 3.5 million barrels of oil per day of new                         is not included here). The percentages
production capacity is needed each year to offset the declining flow from                              for energy sources in the United States
old wells. Where will all this oil come from? More oil is still being found and                        are not very different from those of
methods exist to extract some of the oil that remains in old wells, though at                          the world as a whole. However, China’s
more expense per barrel. However, the last year in which more oil was dis-                             figures are quite different: coal provides
                                                                                                          1
                                                                                                       2 _ times as much of its energy as the
                                                                                                          2
covered than consumed was more than a quarter of a century ago, and by
                                                                                                       world average with correspondingly
now two barrels of oil are burned for every barrel discovered.                                         smaller proportions for other sources.
     Sooner or later—probably before 2030, possibly as soon as 2020—oil                                The world total is around 12 billion tons of
production will reach a peak and start to decline. The flow of oil will not stop                       oil equivalent. (An average family car burns
then, of course, but its price will soar. This will bring about a drastic change                       about 1 ton of oil equivalent per year.)
in the world’s patterns of energy use that will be hard to adjust to because oil
burns efficiently and is easy to extract, process, store, and transport. Seventy
percent of the oil used today goes into fuels that power ships, trains, aircraft,
cars, and trucks, and oil is a valued feedstock for synthetic material of all
kinds.
                                                                                                                             Renewable
     Natural gas fuels the power stations that generate a fifth of the electricity used
                                                                                                                                9%
in the United States (Fig. 4-6) and provides heat for more than half its homes.
Reserves of natural gas far exceed those of oil, though new technology will be
required to exploit the largest deposits (Sec. 4.6). But it, too, will not last forever.
                                                                                                                 Nuclear
                                       300                                                                        20%
              Energy consumption, EJ




                                       250

                                                               Oil                                        Natural gas                  Coal
                                       200
                                                                                                             21%                       49%
                                                                     Coal
                                       150
                                                                             Gas
                                       100
                                                                              Renewable
                                        50                                                                     Oil
                                                                                   Nuclear                     1%
                                        0
                                        1980   1990   2000          2010      2020        2030
                                                                                                       Figure 4-6     Sources of electric energy
                                                                                                       in the United States. In Europe, the
                                                                            Estimated
                                                                                                       contribution of renewable sources is
                                                             Year
                                                                                                       16 percent, a level not expected to be
Figure 4-5 Annual world energy consumption from various sources. Serious international action to       reached in the United States until at
moderate global warming would reduce the projected rises in fossil-fuel use and increase the others.   least 2030.
98   4-6   Chapter 4   Energy and the Future


               Even though the coal we consume every year took about 2 million years
           to accumulate, apparently—the data are not entirely reliable—enough
           remains for perhaps a century at the present rate of consumption, less if coal
           use continues to increase at its current rate. Coal reserves are equivalent in
           energy content to several times oil reserves. Coal is the cheapest fossil fuel.
           Before 1941, coal was the world’s chief fuel, and it is likely to return to first
           place when oil and gas run out. As with them, coal prices are headed upward,
           more than tripling in the past decade, and will increase even faster as pro-
           duction declines.

           Nonfossil Sources Nuclear fuel reserves exceed those of fossil fuels. Besides
           having an abundant fuel supply, a properly built and properly operat-
           ing nuclear plant is in many respects an excellent energy source. Nuclear
           energy is already responsible for about a fifth of the electricity generated in
           the United States, and in a number of other countries the proportion is even
           higher; in France it is three-quarters. After a period of being largely out of
           favor, nuclear energy is about to come into wider use, as discussed in Sec. 4.8.
               What about the energy of direct sunlight, of winds and tides, of fall-
           ing water, of trees and plants, of the earth’s own internal heat? After all, the
           technologies needed to exploit these renewable resources already exist and
           are steadily improving. Though their contributions will certainly help, it
           is unlikely that such sources will supply a large part of the world’s energy
           needs for decades to come. In every case, the required installation is either
           expensive (though decreasingly so) for the energy obtained, or practical only
           in favorable locations, or both. Some cannot provide energy reliably all the
           time, and most of them need a lot of space.
               Although fossil fuels clearly cannot cope indefinitely with expected energy
           demand, with the help of nuclear and renewable technologies there are suffi-
           cient reserves of fossil fuels to last at least much of the rest of this century. But
           there is another consideration: the billions of tons of carbon dioxide produced
           each year by the burning of fossil fuels are mainly responsible for the warm-
           ing of the atmosphere that is going on today, a warming that seems sure to
           have serious consequences for our planet. To continue burning fossil fuels at
           the ever-increasing rates of Fig. 4-5 is a recipe for disaster, as we shall see next.


           4.3 Global Warming
           A Serious Threat
           The average temperature of the earth’s surface and the atmosphere just
           above it has varied throughout the earth’s history. Warm spells and cold ones
           have alternated, including ice ages in which immense sheets of ice blanketed
           much of the globe, but the changes back and forth occurred over relatively
           long periods of time (see Chap. 14). In recent years a totally new pattern
           of change has begun in which the earth is warming up much faster than it
           ever has before (Fig. 4-7), a rise of about 0.5°C in the past 30 years and still
           climbing.
               The earth’s atmosphere is not heated directly by sunlight but indirectly
           through the greenhouse effect described in Secs. 4.4 and 14.4. The chief agent
           responsible for the greenhouse effect in the atmosphere is the gas carbon
           dioxide (CO2), and global warming is chiefly due to its growing CO2 content.
           (The symbol CO2 means that each carbon dioxide molecule consists of two
           oxygen atoms bonded to a carbon atom.)
               Some consequences of increasing world temperatures are already obvi-
           ous. Sea ice in the Arctic is melting steadily and in 20 years or so the North
           Pole is likely to be free of ice in the summer, for the first time in 3 million years.
           Similar melting is taking place around the Antarctic continent (Fig. 4-8).
The Energy Problem                                                                                                                               4-7         99


  Signs of Warming

  Increasing air temperatures, shrink-                                   and more common worldwide. In            tidings for the still-swelling world
  ing glaciers, and rising seas are not                                  the United States, the Atlantic and      population.
  the only signs that the world is get-                                  Pacific coastal regions are becom-            Also ominous is the effect of
  ting hotter. The oceans store far                                      ing wetter while some of the central     rising temperatures on the spread
  more heat than the atmosphere,                                         states can expect to be increasingly     of disease. Previously safe parts of
  so changes in their temperatures                                       starved of water.                        the Mediterranean Sea now host
  are more significant—and they,                                              Not all is bad for now: spring      toxic warm-water algae. Milder
  too, are climbing. Hurricanes and                                      comes earlier every year, which          winters have allowed the ticks that
  other tropical storms, whose energy                                    lengthens the growing season in the      carry Lyme disease to spread farther
  comes from warm ocean water, are                                       high latitudes to increase food pro-     across North America and Scandi-
  becoming stronger. Storms else-                                        duction there. But some plants and       navia. Mosquitoes, which are vec-
  where are becoming more frequent                                       animals are already having trouble       tors of such maladies as malaria
  and more severe.                                                       keeping up with their new environ-       and dengue fever, range over a
      Climate patterns are changing                                      ments, and a quarter of all species      larger part of the world than before,
  as well, with record rainfalls in some                                 may die out by 2100. Overall crop        and because their metabolism goes
  areas and record droughts in others.                                   yields sooner or later will decline as   up with temperature, they also feed
  Deserts in Africa and central Asia                                     temperatures go up and droughts          more often. There are many more
  are spreading. Wildfires are more                                      occur more frequently, unwelcome         examples.




                                                                                                                      Figure 4-7 Average global surface
            Departures in temperature from the




                                                  0.5                                                                 temperatures for the past thousand
                                                                                                                      years. Temperatures are continuing to
                1961–1990 average, °C




                                                                                                                      rise sharply.
                                                  0.0



                                                 −0.5



                                                 −1.0
                                                    1000   1200   1400       1600       1800      2000
                                                                         Year




                                                                                                                      Figure 4-8 Much of Antarctica is
                                                                                                                      surrounded by giant ice shelves fed by
                                                                                                                      glaciers on shore. Global warming has
                                                                                                                      led to the breakup of large sections of
                                                                                                                      the ice shelves, which drift out to sea as
                                                                                                                      icebergs and eventually melt. Because
                                                                                                                      the shelves are floating to start with,
                                                                                                                      their melting does not raise sea level, but
                                                                                                                      meltwater from the Antarctic ice cap itself
                                                                                                                      will continue to do so as global warming
                                                                                                                      proceeds. If the Antarctic and Greenland
                                                                                                                      ice caps were to melt, sea level would rise
                                                                                                                      by at least 10 m, which would drastically
                                                                                                                      change the map of the world’s land areas.
                                                                                                                      Complete melting would take a long time,
                                                                                                                      but once well under way it would be
                                                                                                                      irreversible because seawater and bare
                                                                                                                      ground absorb sunlight more efficiently
                                                                                                                      than ice, an excellent reflector, does.
100     4-8                            Chapter 4   Energy and the Future



 Conflicts to Come                     Sea Level The melting of sea ice does not affect sea level, just as the melt-
                                       ing of an ice cube in a glass of water does not change the water level, but the
 The large-scale disruptions of        melting of ice on land is another story. Global warming is causing sea level
 normal life that global warming       to rise at 3.4 mm/year today, almost twice as fast as a decade ago and still
 seems to be on the way to bring-      accelerating. Although much of the rise is due to water expanding as it is
 ing about are not likely to be        heated, as most substances do, the melting of the vast glaciers of Greenland
 met passively by those involved.      and Antarctica is responsible for a growing proportion.
 It is entirely possible that within        The polar icecaps are on the way to melting on a scale large enough to
 the lifetimes of many people          inundate coastal regions everywhere. This will leave huge numbers of people
 alive today, hundreds of mil-         to be resettled on higher ground; nearly half the world’s population now lives
 lions of Latin Americans, Afri-
                                       on or near coasts, a proportion expected to be three-quarters in the not-too-
 cans, and Asians will run short
 of freshwater and food. Ris-
                                       distant future. Even before gondolas fill the flooded streets of coastal cities,
 ing seas made worse by storm          the underground water deposits that supply most of their freshwater will
 surges will add to the misery.        have been contaminated by seawater.
       How will the rest of the             How much higher will sea level go? If present trends in carbon diox-
 world, by then already near or        ide emissions continue, a minimum sea-level rise of 1 m by 2100 can be
 at the limit of its ability to sup-   expected, possibly as much as twice that. Even a 1-m rise would displace
 port its own populations, react       at least 140 million coastal dwellers. If all the proposed programs to reduce
 to the refugees swarming in,          world carbon dioxide emissions are actually carried out, the rise would still
 desperate to survive? We all          be around 0.75 m. In any case, the melting will not stop in 2100 but will
 know the answer. An alarm-            persist as long as elevated temperatures do, raising sea level yet more in cen-
 ist view? Not according to the
                                       turies to come.
 U.N. Panel on Climate Change,
 the U.N. Security Council, the        Future Temperatures The average surface temperature since 1880 has gone
 Pentagon, and other worried
                                       up by about 0.83°C. Sunlight is reflected back into space by ice, and the loss
 observers. Only if both global
 population and CO2 emissions
                                       of ice means much more solar energy absorbed by the land and sea that it
 begin to fall very soon is there      once covered. The result is a feedback loop that accelerates global warming.
 any prospect of a peaceful            This means that time is not on our side: action taken now would make a big-
 world of thriving people in the       ger difference than the same action taken later.
 future.                                   It is generally agreed that a global temperature increase of 2°C beyond
                                       preindustrial values is the most that can be tolerated without catastrophic
                                       impacts on human (and all other) life. A rise of 2°C may not seem like much,
                                       but to keep it from being exceeded would mean drastic changes in the world’s
                                       ways of producing and using energy. Such changes would be very expensive
                                       and affect the lives of almost everybody.
                                           At the other extreme, most calculations of the result of doing nothing
                                       beyond the measures already being taken suggest a global temperature rise
                                       of over 4°C by 2100. The earth would then be warmer than it has been for 55
                                       million years with environmental changes on a huge scale. The middle and
                                       tropical latitudes would be too hot and dry to support the variety of living
                                       things they now do, with surviving humans crowded together in the polar
                                       regions. How many people could such a planet support? Maybe a billion or
                                       two, certainly far less than the projected 9.2 billion of Fig. 4-1, which does
                                       not take global warming into account.
                                           In the rest of this chapter, we will see what is responsible for global
                                       warming and what can—must—be done to prevent such a nightmare future.


                                       4.4 Carbon Dioxide and the Greenhouse Effect
                                       The Cause of Global Warming
                                       Every body of matter radiates light regardless of its temperature; the hotter
                                       it is, the more it gives off (see Fig. 5-6). The radiation from something very
                                       hot, such as the sun, is obvious because its glow is mainly visible light. The
                                       radiation from something at room temperature, however, is chiefly infrared
The Energy Problem                                                                                                                                              4-9        101


light to which the eye is not sensitive. The interior of a greenhouse is warmer                                                        Soot
than the outside air because the glass of its windows is transparent to vis-
ible light from the sun whereas the infrared light given off by its contents is                                                        Although an enhanced green-
absorbed by the glass, so that the incoming energy is trapped.                                                                         house effect is the chief contrib-
    As discussed in Sec. 14.4, this greenhouse effect is largely responsible                                                           utor to global warming, recent
for heating the earth’s atmosphere and its surface. The visible light from the                                                         studies show that another
sun that reaches the surface is reradiated as infrared light that is readily                                                           important factor is soot, which
absorbed by several gases in the atmosphere. One of the most important of                                                              consists of black carbon par-
these gases is carbon dioxide. As a result, the atmosphere is heated mainly                                                            ticles produced when various
from below by the earth and only to a smaller extent from above by the sun,                                                            fuels are incompletely burned.
                                                                                                                                       Soot may be responsible for as
as shown in Fig. 14-12. Without the greenhouse effect, the earth’s surface
                                                                                                                                       much as 18 percent of global
would average −18°C instead of its current average of 15°C.
                                                                                                                                       warming. A good deal of soot
                                                                                                                                       enters the atmosphere from
Atmospheric CO2 Is Increasing In the past, the total energy that the earth
                                                                                                                                       old, inefficient diesel engines,
and its atmosphere reradiated back into space equalled the total energy
                                                                                                                                       but most apparently comes
they received from the sun. However, the CO2 content of the atmosphere                                                                 from primitive cooking stoves
is steadily increasing, which means that the earth and its atmosphere are                                                              widely used in parts of Africa
absorbing energy at a greater rate than before and are heating up. The result                                                          and Asia with wood and dung
is global warming.                                                                                                                     as fuel. As the soot particles
     Even if the CO2 content of the atmosphere were to stop rising, there                                                              absorb sunlight, they heat up
would still be a time lag until the earth’s surface reached a final temperature                                                        and warm the air around them.
at which the energy input and output flows were in balance. The temperature                                                                 Because soot particles stay
surge in recent years shown in Fig. 4-7 is only about half of what is needed                                                           aloft for only a few weeks and
to equalize the energy flows, so global warming will continue until that hap-                                                          so do not accumulate in the
                                                                                                                                       atmosphere the way greenhouse
pens no matter what action is taken. Because CO2 persists in the atmosphere
                                                                                                                                       gases do, replacing the primi-
for about a century after entering it, global temperatures would then fall very
                                                                                                                                       tive stoves with efficient ones
gradually. Time is not on our side.                                                                                                    (about $20 each) would have an
     Analyzing air bubbles trapped in Greenland and Antarctic ice shows that                                                           immediate effect. If, say, 20 mil-
the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is currently 27 percent higher than                                                            lion stoves were replaced with
at any time in the past 650,000 years. The chief cause in recent times is the                                                          help from developed countries
burning of fossil fuels to generate electricity; heat our homes; propel our                                                            (the stove users themselves
cars, trains, ships, and airplanes; and power various industrial processes. All                                                        have incomes of only about $2/
but 15 percent of the world’s energy comes from carbon-based fuels. Each                                                               day), the cost would be $400
kilogram of carbon burned yields 3.7 kg of CO2, and at present our chimneys                                                            million, an extremely modest
and exhaust pipes pour out about 30 billion tons of CO2 per year.                                                                      sum to slow global warming by
                                                                                                                                       a useful amount.
     The United States and China are by far the largest emitters of CO2
(Figs. 4-9 and 4-10). In 2000, total Chinese emissions, then half those of the
United States, were expected to catch up around 2025. They actually did so

                                                                                                                                      Figure 4-9    Annual carbon dioxide
                                          20        19.1                                                                              emissions from fossil fuels per person
          Metric tons of carbon dioxide




                                                                                                                                      in various countries in 2007. (1  metric
                                                                                                                                      ton = 1000  kg)
              per person per year




                                          15

                                                              11.2
                                                                        9.7
                                          10                                        8.6


                                              5                                              4.5       4.6

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102               4-10                                                                      Chapter 4     Energy and the Future




                             Population, million persons




                                                                                                                                                             Population, million persons
                                                           1200                                                                                                                            1200



                                                            800                                                                                                                             800



                                                            400                                                                                                                             400




                                                                     0                                                                                                                               0
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                                                                         Total CO2 emitted, billion metric tons/year                                                                                     Total CO2 emitted, billion metric tons/year
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Figure 4-10     Population and annual CO2 emissions from fossil fuels of four countries in 2007. China and India have the largest populations,
with three out of eight of the world’s people between them. For now India emits less than a fifth as much CO2 per person as China does.
China and the United States each account for a fifth of the world’s CO2 emissions, but there are over four times as many Chinese. The United
Kingdom, whose CO2 emissions per person are about twice China’s and half those of the United States, is a fairly typical industrialized country.
CO2 emissions from most less-developed countries are very small, only about 400 kg per person per year in Africa’s Senegal, for example, but
because such countries are largely agricultural they will suffer most from global warming.



                                                                                            in 2007 and are still rising much more rapidly than those of the United States
                                                                                            as China continues its dash to industrialize.
                                                                                                As we can see from Fig. 4-11, the CO2 content of the atmosphere, now
                                                                                            around 390 ppm, has gone up by over 35 percent since 1860 and is currently
                                                                                            growing at 2 ppm/year. The increase represents about half the CO2 from
                                                                                            burning fossil fuels; the rest is absorbed by the oceans, soils, and forests. As
                                                                                            fossil fuels continue to be burned at a high rate, the greenhouse “window”
                                                                                            becomes a better and better trap for heat and the ultimate temperature of
The Energy Problem                                                                                                                  4-11         103

                                390                                                                         Figure 4-11       Carbon dioxide
                                380
                                                                                                            concentration in the atmosphere
                                                                                                            since 1860, in parts per million (ppm).
                                370                                                                         The total today is nearly 3 trillion
                                                                                                            tons. There was little change in CO2
       CO2 concentration, ppm

                                360
                                                                                                            concentration in the 10 thousand years
                                350
                                                                                                            before 1860. If CO2 emissions do not
                                340                                                                         fall significantly, its concentration is
                                                                                                            expected to climb to at least 500 ppm
                                330
                                                                                                            in this century. The resulting enhanced
                                320                                                                         greenhouse effect will then push global
                                310                                                                         temperatures past the threshold for
                                                                                                            severe and long-lasting environmental
                                300
                                                                                                            damage.
                                290
                                280
                                      1870   1890   1910   1930     1950    1970     1990     2010
                                                             Year



the earth’s surface will continue to go up. If nothing is done, by 2100 atmo-
spheric CO2 is projected to reach 965 ppm with a disastrous temperature rise
of perhaps 4.8°C.
    Many climate scientists think that the CO2 concentration in the atmo-
sphere should not exceed 450 ppm to prevent global temperatures from


  Other Greenhouse Gases

  Although CO2 is the most important                         wetlands, in the production of fossil
  of the greenhouse gases human                              fuels, in the decay of organic mat-                       N2O
  activities are responsible for, it is                      ter (for instance in landfills), in rice                  6%
  not the only one (Fig.  4-12). Fol-                        growing, and, in surprising quanti-               CH4
  lowing it in significance are the                          ties, as by-products of the digestion             15%
  CFCs and HCFCs, a group of arti-                           of food by cattle, sheep, and ter-
  ficially made gases mainly used in                         mites. A cow belches 200 liters or so
                                                                                                                                   CO2
  refrigeration and air-conditioning                         of methane every day.                        CFCs and HCFCs
                                                                                                                                   55%
  (Sec. 14.1). They leak into the                                 Methane in vast quantities—                  24%
  atmosphere in much smaller                                 perhaps 50 billion tons—from the
  amounts than Fig. 4-12 suggests, but                       decomposition of organic remains
  are highly efficient as greenhouse                         has been locked into the frozen
  gases—1 kg of most of them is equiv-                       lands of Siberia and northern Can-
  alent to several tons of CO2—and                           ada for thousands of years. Now
  remain active for several decades.                         global warming is melting the per-         Figure 4-12 The contributions to
  The quoted figure of 24 percent                            mafrost and methane is bubbling            global warming of the chief greenhouse
  corresponds to their contribution to                       out—an estimated 100,000 tons              gases.
  global warming.                                            every summer day from Siberia’s
       Next in its impact on global                          peat bogs alone. Like the increased        the atmosphere of around 120 years.
  warming is methane, the chief con-                         absorption of sunlight by newly            It is given off when fossil fuels and
  stituent of natural gas. A methane                         ice-free areas of polar lands and          organic matter are burned, when
  molecule consists of four hydrogen                         sea, this is another feedback loop         fertilizers are used (3 to 5 percent of
  atoms bonded to a carbon atom, so                          that accelerates global warming.           the nitrogen added by them to the
  its chemical formula is CH4. Meth-                         The methane concentration in the           soil ends up as N2O), and in vari-
  ane is 23 times as efficient as CO2                        atmosphere today from all sources          ous industrial processes. Rainfor-
  in trapping heat but fortunately has                       is over twice what it was in prein-        ests and the oceans also emit some
  the short lifetime in the atmosphere                       dustrial times.                            N2O. The N2O concentration in the
  of about a dozen years. About 600                               Nitrous oxide, N2O, is 310            atmosphere, now 18 percent over
  million tons of methane are released                       times as potent a greenhouse gas as        its preindustrial level, is also on the
  annually into the atmosphere from                          CO2 and has an average lifetime in         way up.
104     4-12                              Chapter 4    Energy and the Future



  Deforestation

  Every year 50,000 square miles                      Another unfortunate aspect of              Indonesia releases more CO2
  of rainforest are destroyed, for                deforestation comes from the fact         through deforestation than any
  the most part to create farmland.               that CO2 and water are the raw            other country, which puts it into
  About half the tropical forests that            materials from which trees, like all      third place, behind the United
  the world once had are now gone,                plants, manufacture carbohydrates         States and China, as a source of CO2
  which has reduced the diversity                 with the help of sunlight (Sec.           emissions due to human activity.
  of living things. As a rule, the soil           13.12). A typical rainforest tree         Large-scale deforestation continues
  under a tropical forest is poor and             (one of around 200 billion) removes       in Brazil, which gains it fourth place
  wears out after only a few crops,               22 kg of CO2 from the atmosphere          in this list. Many tropical countries
  and additional forest is then cleared.          every year, a process that stops when     have lost most of their rainforests:
  Trees are about half carbon, and cut-           the tree is cut down. Today forest        the Philippines, 90 percent; Mada-
  ting them down to rot or be burned              growth absorbs about as much CO2          gascar, 95 percent; Haiti, 99 percent.
  adds an estimated 3 billion tons of             as China emits—more than all the          Figure  4-13 shows how large the
  CO2 annually into the atmosphere,               world’s cars, trucks, trains, aircraft,   contribution of deforestation is to
  almost a fifth of total CO2 emissions.          and ships emit.                           overall greenhouse gas emissions.



                    Waste
                                          Other       Electricity
                      4%
                                          13%         generation
                                                       and heat
                                                         25%
                            Agriculture
                              13%
                                                                                            Figure 4-13 Origins of greenhouse gas
                              Transport               Deforestation                         emissions.
                                13%                       18%
                                           Industry
                                             14%




                                          rising beyond 2°C, which might permit civilized human life, not just mere
                                          survival at best. This would require CO2 emissions to peak in this decade and
                                          then drop to less than half of their present rate by 2050.
                                              In December 2009, representatives, including many leaders, of 193 coun-
                                          tries met in Copenhagen to come up with definite plans to accomplish this
                                          goal. They could not agree on almost anything, but many promised to take
                                          various measures to moderate the increase in emissions. An assessment of
                                          these promises suggests a CO2 concentration in 2100 of 755 ppm, nearly
                                          double today’s value, which implies in turn a temperature rise of 3.8°C. Even
                                          adding in more-or-less vague measures that a number of countries said they
                                          would consider only reduces these figures to 590 ppm and 2.9°C—still too
                                          much. Section 4.14 considers the kinds and extents of the actions (not words)
                                          governments would have to take to avoid foreseeable disaster.

  Fossil Fuels
                                          Coal, oil, and natural gas are called fossil fuels because they were formed
                                          millions of years ago by the partial decay of the remains of swamp plants
                                          (coal) and marine organisms such as algae and plankton (oil and natural
                                          gas); see Sec. 16.15. Coal consists mainly of carbon, oil and natural gas
                                          consist of both carbon and hydrogen. Burning coal liberates energy as its
Fossil Fuels                                                                                                                                                                            4-13         105


carbon combines chemically with oxygen from the air to form carbon diox-
ide. Burning natural gas and fuels such as gasoline liberates more energy per
gram (Fig. 4-14) as their carbon and hydrogen combine with oxygen to form
carbon dioxide and water vapor, respectively. Figure 4-15 shows the recent
and projected CO2 emissions traceable to the various fossil fuels.
    Fossil fuels today provide about 85 percent of world energy consump-
tion (Fig.  4-4). Oil and natural gas are versatile and convenient to trans-
port and use, but they are growing increasingly expensive as they become
harder to extract from declining reserves. Oil prices have more than tri-
pled in the past decade. Coal is relatively cheap and its widely distributed
reserves are greater, but burning coal does the most damage to the envi-
ronment. Various schemes have been proposed to utilize fossil fuels more
efficiently and cleanly. Some of these schemes are more practical than oth-
ers, but in the long run the role of fossil fuels in energy production will
have to decline.
    Another consideration in the case of the United States is that, because
it imports two-thirds of the oil it uses (and has only 3 percent of world
reserves), it is vulnerable to disruptions in its oil supply such as the 1973



                                                                                        143                                                                     Figure 4-14 Energy contents of
                                                                                  140                                                                           various fuels. Shown are the number of
                                                                                                                                                                kilojoules of energy liberated when 1 g
                                                                                  120                                                                           of each fuel is burned. Carbohydrates
                                                                                                                                                                provide much of the energy in our diets
                                                                                  100
                                                                                                                                                                (see Sec. 13.11). These fuels produce
                                                                Kilojoules/gram




                                                                                                                                                                carbon dioxide (coal), water (hydrogen),
                                                                                   80
                                                                                                                                                                or both when burned.
                                                                                   60                 56
                                                                                                                48
                                                                                   40                                 32        30

                                                                                   20                                                     16
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                                                           50                                                                                                   Figure 4-15 World carbon dioxide
               Annual CO2 emissions, billion metric tons




                                                                                                                                                                emissions from fossil fuels (1 metric
                                                                                                                                                                ton = 1000 kg). The projections are
                                                           40                                                                                                   based on current trends continuing
                                                                                                                                                                and predict a total rise of 2.1 percent
                                                                                                                          Total                                 per year to give 44 billion metric tons
                                                           30                                                                                                                               1
                                                                                                                                                                of CO2 given off in 2030, 1_ times as
                                                                                                                                                                                            2
                                                                                                                                                                much as today. To reverse the upward
                                                           20                                                                                                   sweep of these curves and keep the
                                                                                                                                          Coal                  earth habitable will require immediate
                                                                                                                                                                effective action to keep population
                                                                                                                                                 Oil
                                                           10                                                                                                   growth down, to use energy more
                                                                                                                                          Natural Gas           efficiently, and to replace fossil fuels
                                                                                                                                                                with nuclear and renewable sources.
                                                           0
                                                           1980                         1990               2000            2010             2020         2030

                                                                                                                                          Estimated
106       4-14                               Chapter 4   Energy and the Future


                                             Arab oil embargo. Making do with less oil would make the country more self-
                                             sufficient in energy supply as well as benefitting the environment.


                                             4.5 Liquid Fuels
                                             Vehicles Are the Biggest Users
                                             The world’s largest producers of crude oil are Saudi Arabia, Russia, the
                                             United States, Iran, and China, in that order. Smaller but still substantial
                                             amounts come from a number of other countries, as shown in Fig. 4-16. Most
                                             new oil wells nowadays are located offshore (Fig. 4-17). The United States,
                                             which uses over 20 million barrels per day, is by far the largest consumer of
                                             oil, followed by China, Japan, India, and Russia.
                                                  Transport fuels make up 70 percent of oil products. Gasoline and die-
                                             sel fuel are the most common transport fuels and consist of mixtures of
                                             various hydrocarbons—chemical compounds of carbon and hydrogen—
                                             derived from oil, as described in Chap. 13. In a vehicle engine, the gaseous
                                             products of burning fuel, mainly H2O (water) and CO2, expand rapidly
                                             because of the intense heat generated by the reaction. This expansion
                                             forces down the pistons of the engine, which in turn causes the crankshaft
                                             to rotate and provide power to the vehicle wheels (see Sec. 5-13). For every
                                             gallon of gasoline burned, over 8 kg of CO2 are produced. A typical sport
                                             utility vehicle (SUV) can put 20 kg of CO2 into the atmosphere in a 40-mile
                                             commute (Fig. 4.18).



Figure 4-16 The chief oil and gas
deposits in the world.




Figure 4-17 Oil drilling rig in the Gulf
of Mexico off the Louisiana coast. It is
more and more difficult to find new oil
deposits to satisfy the world’s increasing
appetite.
Fossil Fuels                                                                                                        4-15         107


   Tar Sands Oil

   As the cost of oil increases, previously uneconomical         2015. There is more bad news: mining the tar sands has
   sources are beginning to be exploited, none of them ideal.    thus far churned up 160 square miles of land, of which
   The most important are the tar sands (mixtures of a tarlike   only a sixth is being reclaimed at present. And the three
   material known as bitumen, sand, and clay) found over         to five barrels of water that go into the steam needed to
   a vast area—the size of Florida—in Canada’s province of       produce each barrel of tar sands oil, too contaminated
   Alberta; other large deposits are in Venezuela with smaller   afterward for further use, end up stored in toxic ponds
   ones elsewhere, including Utah. Tar sands worldwide con-      that already cover 50 square miles.
   tain more oil than there is in reserves of ordinary crude          Over 100 billion dollars has already been invested in
   oil, but only some of it is practical to extract. Tar sands   Canadian tar sands projects with more on the way. Cur-
   oil costs far more than crude oil per barrel to produce,      rent oil output from tar sands there is 1.3 million barrels
   in part because converting tar sands to usable oil needs a    per day, expected to reach 3.3 million in 2020. U.S. law
   lot of energy, several times as much as crude oil; most of    bans federal agencies from buying fuel from alternative
   this energy comes from natural gas. Even so, producing        sources, such as tar sands, if their production and use
   oil from tar sands is a profitable business in Canada.        result in more greenhouse gas emissions than in the case
         The CO2 emissions that accompany extracting oil         of ordinary sources. But nongovernmental consumers
   from tar sands range from 1.4 to 4 times the emissions        are under no such restrictions, and half the oil Canada
   in the case of crude oil. They add up to about 3.6 million    ships to the United States (9 percent of total imports)
   tons of CO2 per year now, which is expected to double by      comes from tar sands.



Saving Fuel     Increasing the fuel efficiency of cars and trucks will save
money, reduce pollution and global warming, and postpone the day when
oil runs out. One approach is to minimize air resistance by designing more
streamlined vehicle shapes. SUVs are especially bad in this respect. Engines
can be improved; one method is to have several cylinders shut down when
less power is needed, others involve direct fuel injection and variable valve
timing. Better transmissions would also help, and reducing vehicle weight
would pay big dividends.
     In most of the world, gasoline and diesel fuel are expensive (in Europe, at
least twice American prices), so fuel economy is prized and efficient cars are
normal. In the United States, where fuel until recently was relatively cheap,
fuel economy was ignored by car makers until legislation in 1975 required
a minimum of 27.5 mi/gal averaged over a maker’s range of ordinary cars.
However, SUVs, vans, and pickups—over half the cars on the road—were
not covered by this requirement. As a result, the actual average mileage in
the United States is today the lowest in the world, not much over half the
current European average of about 40 mi/gal (expected to reach 50 mi/gal
in a few years; in Japan it is nearly that high already). Forty percent of the
oil consumed in the United States is used by its cars. Hence improving their
mileage, fought bitterly by American car makers (just as they did seat belts
and pollution controls earlier, showing the same kind of misplaced priorities             Figure 4-18 Traffic jam on a multilane
that later led two of them into bankruptcy) but finally required by a 2007 law            highway. Although water vapor and
will make a welcome difference. The eventual average to be met by new cars                carbon dioxide are the chief components
and light trucks by 2016 is set at 35.5 mi/gal (still less than today’s European          of vehicle exhausts, they also contain
average). Additional regulations set limits on greenhouse gas emission by                 carbon monoxide (CO) and various
these vehicles.                                                                           hydrocarbons, which are poisonous, and
     The fuel economy of American cars is low not only because of their                   nitrogen oxides, which contribute to acid
                                                                                          rain (see Sec. 4.7) through the nitric acid
unnecessary size and weight and gas-guzzling engines but also because
                                                                                          they form. The hazard of CO comes from
97 percent of them use gasoline engines whereas the more efficient diesel
                                                                                          its tendency to combine permanently
cars are in the majority elsewhere. The latest diesel engines (unlike older               with the hemoglobin in the blood in
ones) are quiet, produce little pollution, and are 20 to 40 percent more effi-            place of oxygen. This deprives the body
cient than gasoline engines. If only a third of American cars and light trucks            of some of the oxygen it needs and leads
were diesels (the heavy trucks are already), the savings would amount to the              to brain damage or death if too much CO
equivalent of all the oil imported from Saudi Arabia. Performance is not an               is inhaled; no other poison injures or kills
issue: a diesel car won the classic 24-h Le Mans race in France recently.                 as many people as CO.
108     4-16                             Chapter 4   Energy and the Future



  Hybrid Cars

  A hybrid car has both a gasoline engine and one or more
  electric motors, which under computer control are used
  separately or together as driving circumstances require
  (Fig. 4-19). When not much power is needed, the engine
  stops and the motors take over. The motors obtain their
  energy from a set of batteries that are charged both by
  the engine and by “regenerative braking”—slowing the
  car is done by using its motors as generators to convert
  its KE of motion to electric energy for storage. Regen-
  erative braking reduces the energy cost of city driving by
  around 20 percent. A smaller than usual gasoline engine,
  which is more economical with fuel, can be used because
  the electric motors can supplement it for extra power
  when accelerating or climbing steep hills.
       Hybrid cars average twice the mileage of ordinary
  cars; if all cars in the United States were hybrids, 1.5 bil-      Figure 4-19      The Toyota Prius, the pioneer hybrid gasoline-
  lion barrels of oil would be saved each year. Carbon diox-         electric car, has had sales of over 2 million since it first appeared
  ide emissions from conventional American cars average              in 1997 and kept more than 10 million tons of CO2 out of the
  452 g per mile, hybrids average 294 g. A new version of            atmosphere. Other car makers have begun producing hybrids as
  hybrids, called “plug-in hybrids,” can have their batter-          well. Plug-in hybrids, the next generation, have batteries that can
  ies recharged from ordinary household outlets and so act           be recharged from household outlets as well as by their engines
  as purely electric cars for short distances such as most           and by regenerative braking. Half of all new cars may be plug-in
  commutes. If the household electricity comes from coal-            hybrids by 2025.
  burning power plants, as about half of American elec-
  tricity does (Fig. 4-6), the total CO2 emitted per mile rises      typically to 150 g, a third as much as in the case of ordi-
  to an estimated 326 g; if natural gas is the fuel, the total       nary cars. This matters because CO2 emissions from
  falls to 256 g; if alternative sources (nuclear, hydroelec-        American cars add up to about 20 percent of the coun-
  tric, wind, solar) are involved, the total falls even farther,     try’s total.




                                         4.6 Natural Gas
                                         The Least Bad Fossil Fuel
                                         When burned, natural gas combines with oxygen to give carbon dioxide and
                                         water vapor, as liquid fuels derived from oil do, but with less pollution. Natu-
                                         ral gas consists of the lighter hydrocarbons, chiefly methane. Natural gas is
                                         cheaper than oil per unit of energy content, though coal is still cheaper. It is
                                         more efficient than other fossil fuels in producing electricity, and its share
                                         of world generating capacity, now over 30 percent (21 percent in the United
                                         States) is steadily increasing. A gas-fired power plant typically gives off only
                                         about half as much CO2 per unit of energy as a conventional coal-fired plant.
                                         Also widely used for heating, natural gas is expected to eventually replace oil
                                         as the world’s chief energy source until it, too, begins to run out. Natural gas
                                         is an important feedstock for manufacturing chemicals of many kinds.
                                              The largest producers of natural gas are Russia, the United States, Can-
                                         ada, Iran, and Norway, in that order. The United States imports 17 percent
                                         of the natural gas it uses, most of it by pipeline from Canada but some by
                                         sea from elsewhere as LNG—liquified natural gas (Fig.  4-20). The LNG is
                                         regasified at nine special coastal terminals and then carried by pipeline to
                                         consumers. China is building a number of such terminals to receive LNG, in
                                         its case that originate in undersea fields off the west coast of Australia.

                                         New Sources Until now almost all commercial natural gas came from wells
                                         drilled down to porous underground rock formations (Sec. 16.15). Over
                                         half the world’s gas reserves in such formations are in the three countries
Fossil Fuels                                                                                           4-17   109




Figure 4-20     Natural gas, which is mainly methane, is carried in liquid form at low temperature
(methane boils at −161°C) in tankers such as this as well as in pipelines. Liquid methane occupies
about 600 times less volume than methane gas. The tanks are spherical to minimize heat flow into
them: a sphere has the least surface area for a given volume. The liquid natural gas (LNG) is kept
cold by being allowed to evaporate continuously, which absorbs the heat that passes through the
tank walls. The gas that comes off is used to power the ship’s engines, so it is not wasted. Perhaps
250 million tons of LNG is shipped around the world each year.


of Russia, Iran, and Qatar (a small Arab state in the Middle East). Less than
5 percent is in the United States. Recently, improved methods have been
developed to extract natural gas trapped in shale beds in the United States
and elsewhere; shale is a type of rock (Fig. 15-16). Adding in the gas from
these beds increases world gas reserves by an as-yet imprecise amount but
perhaps 50 percent, conceivably even more. Already gas from shale beds
in Texas, Louisiana, and Pennsylvania is on the market, and shale projects
are starting in Europe, India, and China. About 7 percent of the natural gas
in the United States comes from the Barnett shale field in Texas. The giant
Marcellus field underlies almost two-thirds of Pennsylvania as well as parts
of adjacent states.
    Shale gas production begins by drilling down to a deposit of gas-filled
rock and then forcing in a mix of chemicals and water to break up the rock.
Next the water is pumped out and methane, now free, escapes through the
bore hole. Many such wells are needed, which can be a problem in populated
areas. Another problem is contamination of nearby water supplies by liber-
ated methane and the chemicals in the fracturing water. Plans to drill for
shale gas in New York State had to be abandoned because of water purity
fears. Still, so much shale gas apparently can be extracted in the United
States in environmentally acceptable ways that there is even the possibility
that its LNG terminals may eventually be converted from methane import to
methane export.
    Under certain circumstances, methane can be trapped inside ice crystals
(see Fig. 11-18) to form a methane-rich substance usually called methane
clathrate (sometimes methane hydrate or methane ice). Within the earth,
natural gas, which is mostly methane, is a product of the decomposition of
organic matter by bacteria, as described in Sec. 16.15. Most clathrates are
formed when such methane comes in contact with extremely cold water
underground where pressures are high. Deposits have turned out to be com-
mon under the seabeds of the continental shelves of oceans (Fig. 14-36) and
inside and beneath permafrost in such places as Alaska and Siberia. More
rarely they occur elsewhere, for instance in sediments on the seabed itself;
some years ago a large piece was picked up by a fishing net off the west coast
110      4-18                             Chapter 4   Energy and the Future


                                          of Canada. Methane clathrates resemble dirty ice, have the consistency of
                                          sherbet, and burst into flames when lit by a match.
                                              An immense amount of methane is locked up in clathrates; estimates vary
                                          from 2 to 10 times the amount of methane in ordinary sources of natural gas.
                                          Thus clathrates may contain more energy than that in the reserves of those
                                          sources plus the reserves of oil and coal. Unfortunately, collecting the meth-
                                          ane in clathrates economically will not be easy because it is not sufficiently
                                          concentrated. But the prospect of so much energy almost within reach is so
                                          attractive that prospecting for accessible deposits and developing technology
                                          to extract their methane are racing ahead. An optimistic but not absurd fore-
                                          cast has commercial exploitation starting somewhere as soon as 2015.


                                          4.7 Coal
                                          Plentiful but Worst for the Environment
                                          Until it was overtaken by oil, coal was the chief energy source under human
                                          control. Coal is cheap and its reserves are large. The energy in a dollar’s
                                          worth of coal typically costs around $3 in the form of natural gas and $6
                                          in the form of fuel oil. Coal is widely distributed as well as abundant; the
                                          United States has a quarter of the world’s reserves—the coal in Illinois alone
                                          contains more energy than all the oil in Saudi Arabia (Fig. 4-21). The chief
                                          producers of coal are China (40 percent of the world’s total), the United
                                          States, India, and Australia (which exports most of the output of its mines).
                                          (For information on underground coal fires see Sec. 4.7 at www.mhhe.com/
                                          krauskopf.)
                                               The United States uses 90 percent of its mined coal to generate half its
                                          electricity in about 600 power plants (Fig. 4-22). China, which relies on coal
                                          for two-thirds of its energy, over twice the world average, already burns more
                                          coal than the United States, Europe, and Japan combined; by 2030 it will
                                          have more than doubled its current usage. Every week one or two new coal-
                                          fired power plants open somewhere in China. In all, over a thousand such
                                          plants are either newly built or under construction around the world. About
                                          150 of them are in the United States.
                                               Unfortunately coal is not an ideal fuel. For the same energy output, coal
                                          produces nearly a third more CO2 than oil fuels and about twice as much
                                          as natural gas. Burning coal is responsible for 40 percent of the 30 billion
                                          tons of CO2 released into the atmosphere per year by human activities (see
                                          Fig. 4-15), a proportion that will grow as coal use widens. During the normal
                                          60-year lifespan of a 500 MW coal-fired power plant, it will emit 200 million
                                          tons of CO2.



Figure 4-21 About half the coal
extracted in the United States comes
from underground mines such as this
one. The rest is gouged in the open
from deposits that lie near the surface
after the overlying soil has been
stripped away. Most of the underground
mines are in the eastern part of the
country; most of the surface mines are
in the western part. The coal currently
consumed in the world each year took
about 2 million years to accumulate.
Fossil Fuels                                                                                              4-19        111


                                                                                  Figure 4-22 Coal, shown here
                                                                                  piled next to an electric power plant
                                                                                  in Newark, New Jersey, is the most
                                                                                  abundant fossil fuel and is used to
                                                                                  produce over half the electric energy
                                                                                  generated in the United States. Coal
                                                                                  is responsible for more CO2 and other
                                                                                  pollutants per unit of energy released
                                                                                  than any other source.




    Concerns about the environmental impact of coal-fired power plants,
together with high construction costs and reduced prices for the cleaner
natural gas, have led to the cancellation in the past decade of plans for over
one hundred such plants in the United States. Several dozen more projected
plants await final decisions. If any are approved, they may be along the last
built without carbon storage and capture, as described below.

Cogeneration As discussed in Sec. 5.14, a basic physical principle called the
second law of thermodynamics states that it is impossible to take heat from
a source (such as a furnace or a nuclear reactor) and convert all of it to
mechanical energy or work (for instance in a steam turbine connected to an
electric generator). Some heat, usually a lot, must go to waste. In the case of
an electric power station, the actual efficiency is less than half—only about
3–4 J of every 10 J of heat input becomes electric energy.
     Older power stations just discharge the leftover heat into nearby bod-
ies of water or into the atmosphere via cooling towers. Nowadays combined
heat and power stations are being built that capture the excess heat and use
it for domestic heat and in various industrial applications. Such cogenera-
tion conserves fuel and thereby cuts CO2 emissions as well. This is not a
technology of the future but a practical way of getting the most out of every
ton of fossil fuel burned in a power station and every ton of CO2 it releases.
The main obstacle to wider use of cogeneration is that, although the heat is
cheap, the piping needed to distribute it is not.

Carbon Capture and Storage Because coal, whose use is expected to climb
40 percent by 2030, is going to remain a major energy source for a long time,
it is essential to find ways to eliminate, or at least severely reduce, the CO2
that using coal dumps into the atmosphere. A straightforward method is to
pump the CO2 from coal-burning plants deep underground for permanent
burial. Suitable geological formations are widely available, and if necessary
the captured CO2 can be carried by pipeline as much as hundreds of kilome-
ters from its source to a storage site.
     Such carbon capture and storage (CCS) is now being done on a small
scale with CO2 liberated in other processes. In Europe’s North Sea, where
natural gas from Norwegian wells is contaminated with excessive CO2, a mil-
lion tons of CO2 each year are stripped from the natural gas and injected into
porous rocks a kilometer below the seabed where it displaces seawater. No CO2
112      4-20                             Chapter 4   Energy and the Future


Figure 4-23      At this facility in
Algeria in the Sahara Desert, carbon
dioxide found mixed with natural gas is
separated out and then pumped 2 km
underground. Such sequestration keeps
the carbon dioxide from entering the
atmosphere where it would contribute
to global warming by enhancing the
greenhouse effect.




                                          has been found to be leaking out in over a decade of operation. A similar car-
                                          bon capture and storage is being carried out at a gas field in Algeria (Fig. 4-23).
                                              Various pilot operations around the world are under way to further
                                          develop the technology involved, some of it new. One of them involves taking
                                          CO2 produced by an Illinois corn-processing plant and injecting a million
                                          tons of it to a depth of 7500 m. In West Virginia, the first CCS trial to involve
                                          an actual coal-fired power plant will inject 100,000 tons of liquid CO2 annu-
                                          ally (about 1.5 percent of the plant’s emissions) into a sandstone layer
                                          2400 m below the surface. Work on larger-scale experimental CCS projects,
                                          usually with government support, has either started or will start soon in
                                          China, Canada, Australia, and several European countries.
                                              Unfortunately, to separate CO2 from the other flue gases spewed out by
                                          a coal-fired power plant and then to bury it might double the cost of the
                                          required installation and use a quarter or more of the energy produced. CCS
                                          will inevitably be a very expensive way to reduce CO2 emissions. Too expen-
                                          sive? At present, other low-carbon energy sources, such as nuclear, wind,
                                          solar, and certain biofuels, seem so much more attractive economically that
                                          CCS will have a hard time being widely adopted without major government
                                          involvement of some kind, carrot (subsidies) and/or stick (a heavy CO2 emis-
                                          sions tax, a severe cap-and-trade system; see Sec. 4.14).
                                              There is another consideration, but nobody knows yet how serious it is:
                                          can CCS induce earthquakes? The buried liquid CO2 exerts high pressures
                                          on the porous rock of its reservoir, and in certain geologic formations it is
                                          conceivable this could be enough to trigger earthquakes. A small earthquake
                                          in 2008 near the North Sea CO2 reservoir, mentioned on the previous page,
                                          may—or may not—have been triggered by the injected CO2. Had the quake
                                          been stronger, it could have led to a tsunami (Sec. 14.12).

                                          Coal Gasification   A more economical approach to keeping the CO2 from coal
                                          burning out of the atmosphere is the integrated gasification combined cycle
                                          (IGCC), in which coal is first turned into a mixture of gases. An artificial gas
                                          fuel—syngas (for “synthesis gas”)—can be made by passing very hot steam
                                          over coal to yield a mixture of carbon monoxide and hydrogen. Contami-
                                          nants such as sulfur and mercury are readily removed, and the result is a gas
                                          fuel that can be burned in a power plant as cleanly as natural gas. Hydrogen
                                          could be separated out for use as the energy source for vehicles whose only
                                          emissions would be water vapor, H2O. The CO2 from burning syngas is easier
                                          to capture than the CO2 from burning coal directly, which makes injecting it
                                          underground a more practical proposition. Several syngas power plants have
                                          been built and more are on the way, though not yet with provision for CCS.
                                              Syngas can be the starting point for a variety of products. One is meth-
                                          ane, the chief constituent of natural gas, and indeed a plant in North Dakota
                                          has been making methane for use as a fuel from coal since 1984 (Fig. 4-24).
                                          Syngas can also be used to create liquid fuels such as gasoline and diesel fuel.
                                          This was done on a large scale in oil-short Germany during World War II.
Fossil Fuels                                                                                                      4-21        113


   Coal Ash

   Burning coal leaves behind solid residues in the form of      rivers, and streams. Recently 77 areas in the United
   ash. Coal ash contains significant amounts of heavy met-      States were found to have water contaminated by heavy
   als such as arsenic, lead, mercury, and selenium, which       metals from ash dumps. The Environmental Protection
   can cause cancer, neurological problems, and birth            Agency has been studying the issue for over 30 years,
   defects if absorbed by the body. About 130 million tons       including a finding that the concentration of arsenic to
   of coal ash are produced each year in the United States,      which people might be exposed by drinking water con-
   and most of it is simply dumped in 1300 or so locations       taminated by coal ash could increase the risk of cancer
   in 46 states. The rest is used in construction and some       by several hundred times. However, it has yet to take any
   (unbelievably) is even added to soil to improve its ability   action.
   to hold water.                                                     In 2008, an earthen dike around a pond filled with a
        Radioactive elements, notably uranium and tho-           mixture of ash and water at a Tennessee Valley Authority
   rium, are also present in coal ash. Some ash contains         generating plant gave way and a billion gallons of toxic
   so much uranium that recovering it for use as nuclear         sludge flooded 300 acres of land around it. Cleanup costs
   fuel may be an economic proposition. A trial program          are an estimated $1 billion. Such events on a smaller
   for this purpose is under way in China.                       scale are not unusual wherever coal ash is dumped. Out-
        The disposal of coal ash is seldom effectively regu-     side the coal industry, which opposes regulation or even
   lated, for instance by requiring the deposit sites to have    monitoring of ash dumps, the long-term effects on the
   impermeable linings and the ash to be stored as dry as        health of local human and animal populations of intro-
   possible. These measures would help prevent the heavy         ducing heavy metals from coal ash, both in spills and by
   metals from leaching into nearby groundwater, lakes,          gradual leaching, are a source of concern.




                                                                                          Figure 4-24 The Great Plains
                                                                                          Synfuels plant near Beulah, North
                                                                                          Dakota, in operation since 1984,
                                                                                          produces 4.5 million m3 of syngas per
                                                                                          day from 18,000 tons of coal.
                                                                                          A by-product is CO2, which is sent
                                                                                          through a pipeline to Canadian oil
                                                                                          fields where it is buried in old wells
                                                                                          after helping to recover oil from them.
                                                                                          Other profitable by-products include
                                                                                          ingredients for fertilizers and raw
                                                                                          materials for plastics.




However, manufacturing and using these artificial fuels in place of ordinary
gasoline and diesel fuel is quite expensive and doubles the overall amount
of CO2 produced. With global warming a reality, coal-to-liquid fuels do not
seem the way to go.

Pollution Even apart from its role in global warming, coal is far from being
a desirable fuel. Not only is mining it dangerous and usually leaves large
tracts of land unfit for further use, but also the air pollution due to coal burn-
ing adversely affects the health of millions of people. The National Academy
of Sciences estimates that the cost of health damage due to coal burning in
the United States is around $60 billion per year. Toxic substances in coal
smoke include mercury, arsenic, beryllium, cadmium, and dioxins. Interest-
ingly enough, coal-fired power plants expose people living around them to
more radioactivity—from traces of uranium, thorium, and radium in their
smoke—than do normally operating nuclear plants.
    Mercury, which attacks the nervous system and is particularly harmful
to unborn children, is an especially unfortunate component of coal smoke.
Coal-fired plants in the United States discharge 48 tons of mercury each year,
114       4-22                              Chapter 4   Energy and the Future


Figure 4-25 Acid rain, together
with atmospheric sulfur dioxide
(which attacks chlorophyll), led to
the destruction of this forest in North
Carolina. Healthy and abundant forests
are needed not only for timber but
also because they absorb CO2 from the
atmosphere, protect soil from erosion,
help prevent floods, furnish habitats for
most kinds of land plants and animals,
and participate in the water cycle.




                                            a major reason why 6 percent of women of childbearing age in this country
                                            have enough mercury in their bloodstreams to put a fetus at risk of develop-
                                            mental damage. Nearly all states warn their residents about mercury con-
                                            tamination in their waters and in fish caught there.
                                                 Although the Clean Air Act of 1990 required power companies to con-
                                            trol mercury emissions, the industry objected that the expense would be too
                                            great (according to the Government Accountability Office, it would be pen-
                                            nies per month per consumer of electricity) and very few plants were ever
                                            equipped for this. Needless nervous system damage in the country was the
                                            result. Finally, a lawsuit by environmental and public-health groups led to a
                                            2009 federal court order that obliged the Environmental Protection Agency
                                            to begin enforcing the Act, which it agreed to start doing at the end of 2011
                                            by setting limits for toxic power plant emissions.

                                            Acid Rain    Coal contains several percent of sulfur, and when coal is burned,
                                            the sulfur combines with oxygen to form sulfur dioxide, SO2. Every year 50
                                            to 60 million tons of SO2 are released into the atmosphere from this source.
                                            Some nitrogen from the air also combines with oxygen in furnaces to form
                                            nitrogen oxides; vehicle exhausts also contain nitrogen oxides. The sulfur
                                            and nitrogen oxides react with atmospheric moisture to give sulfuric and
                                            nitric acids. The result is acid rain (and acid snow) that can be as much as 60
                                            times more acidic than normal rainwater.
                                                Acid rain has two main effects on soils. One is to dissolve and carry away
                                            valuable plant nutrients. The other is to convert ordinarily harmless alumi-
                                            num compounds, abundant in many soils, to toxic varieties. As a result, for-
                                            ests are dying (Fig.  4-25) and fish have disappeared from many lakes and
                                            rivers due to aluminum washed into them. Drinking water has been contami-
                                            nated in a number of regions by metals released by acidified water, such as
                                            cadmium and copper besides aluminum. The technology exists for “scrub-
                                            bing” sulfur and nitrogen oxides from exhaust gases, and coal-fired power
                                            plants built or upgraded after 1977 are supposed to limit emissions of them.
                                            However, lax enforcement allowed over 30 upgraded plants to violate the law.
                                            Legal action finally began in 2009 to compel the owners of these plants to
                                            behave responsibly. In China, by far the largest emitter of sulfur dioxide, acid
                                            rain falls on a third of the country, with serious ecological consequences.

   Alternative Sources
                                            We now look at the sources responsible for the 15 percent of commercial
                                            energy production that does not involve burning fossil fuels. Although each
                                            of these sources has limitations of various kinds, it may be a good choice in
                                            certain situations. If the full potential of these sources is realized, the world
Alternative Sources                                                                                                                                                          4-23        115


will depend much less, perhaps very little, on fossil fuels with all their short-                                                                     How Much Land?
comings. Of the available alternatives, the only one that can replace fossil
fuels on a major scale in the relatively near future is nuclear energy. But other                                                                     A problem for land-based renew-
technologies are rapidly advancing, and eventually it will become clear which                                                                         able energy sources is that they
paths are the best to follow toward a sustainable energy supply for the world.                                                                        need a lot of land. To serve a
     Today energy derived from fossil fuels is cheaper than energy from                                                                               medium-sized city takes some-
most alternative sources. There are two reasons. The first is that damage                                                                             where around 1 GW of electric
to the environment is not reflected in the prices of fossil fuels. If this factor                                                                     power capacity, which could
is taken into account, the present cost advantage of fossil fuels disappears.                                                                         be provided by a single large
The second reason is that the technologies based on fossil fuels benefit from                                                                         fossil-fuel or nuclear plant.
                                                                                                                                                      How much land would a renew-
long experience with them together with economies of scale. As alternative
                                                                                                                                                      able source require for the same
sources mature, these advantages will fade away.
                                                                                                                                                      capacity? Solar cells would
                                                                                                                                                      have to cover about 5000 acres
                                                                                                                                                      (including rooftops), wind tur-
4.8 A Nuclear World?                                                                                                                                  bines over twice that. A 1-GW
Perhaps on the Way                                                                                                                                    hydroelectric installation would
                                                                                                                                                      have to be fed from at least a
A nuclear reactor obtains its energy from the fission (breaking apart) of                                                                             40-square-mile reservoir or lake,
the nuclei of a certain kind of uranium atoms, as described in Chap. 8. In                                                                            and crops for conversion to bio-
a nuclear power plant, steam from boilers heated by such a reactor runs                                                                               fuel would have to spread across
turbines connected to electric generators. In 1951, in Idaho, electricity was                                                                         200 square miles of farmland to
produced for the first time from a nuclear plant.                                                                                                     give 1 GW averaged over a year.
    Today 443 reactors in 31 countries generate about 450 GW of electric
power, a sixth of the world total. Without them over 20 million barrels of oil
(or their equivalent in coal or natural gas) would have to be burned every
day. France, Belgium, and Taiwan obtain more than half their electricity
from nuclear plants, with several other countries close behind (Fig. 4-26). In
the United States, nuclear energy is responsible for about 20 percent of its
electricity, somewhat more than the world average of 16 percent; there are
104 reactors in 31 states that produce a total of about 100 GW.


           80   78                                                                                                                                   Figure 4-26 Percentage of electric
                                                                                                                                                     energy in various countries that comes
                                                                                                                                                     from nuclear power stations. France
           70
                                                                                                                                                     is more dependent on nuclear energy
                                                                                                                                                     than any other country; it has 59
           60                                                                                                                                        nuclear power plants. As a result, its
                         54                                                                                                                          emissions of CO2 per kWh of electricity
                                                                                                                                                     are extremely low. The United States,
           50                      48                                                                                                                with five times the population of
                                                                                                                                                     France, has 104 such plants.
 Percent




           40                               39            38        37

                                                                                  30
           30

                                                                                          20      20
           20                                                                                                     18
                                                                                                                                   16       16

           10


            0
                France


                         Belgium


                                   Sweden


                                            South Korea


                                                          Hungary


                                                                    Switzerland


                                                                                  Japan


                                                                                          Spain


                                                                                                  United States


                                                                                                                  United Kingdom


                                                                                                                                   Canada


                                                                                                                                            Russia
116     4-24                          Chapter 4   Energy and the Future



 Nuclear Weapons                           The uranium that fuels nuclear plants, fairly abundant in the earth’s
                                      crust, should be able to support a large expansion of nuclear energy in the
 Natural uranium consists of          decades to come, and is not unduly expensive to mine and purify. The price
 two varieties, 238U and 235U, of     of nuclear energy is determined mainly by construction costs, not fuel costs,
 which only 235U can undergo          which may well decrease from their present heights as more plants are built.
 fission (see Secs. 8.9–8.11). Nat-   Nuclear plants do not emit CO2 and so do not contribute to global warming;
 ural uranium contains only 0.7       if the present ones were fossil-fuel plants, nearly 3 billion more tons of CO2
 percent of 235U and must have        would be released each year into the atmosphere.
 this proportion increased to              Yet for all the success of nuclear technology, construction has not begun
 about 3 percent to make reac-        on any new nuclear power stations in the United States since 1979. Why not?
 tor fuel. The process by which
 natural uranium is enriched in       Three Mile Island and Chernobyl In March 1979 failures in its cooling sys-
 235
    U can be continued further        tem disabled one of the reactors at Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania, and a
 until the proportion is over 90      certain amount of radioactive material escaped. Although a reactor cannot
 percent, and the result is the
                                      explode in the way an atomic bomb does, breakdowns due to poor design,
 active ingredient of one kind
                                      shoddy construction, inadequate maintenance, and errors in operation—all
 of nuclear weapon, or “atomic
 bomb.” Furthermore, in its           present at Three Mile Island—can occur that put large populations at risk.
 operation a nuclear reactor pro-     Although a true catstrophe was narrowly avoided, the Three Mile Island inci-
 duces another element, pluto-        dent made it clear that the hazards associated with nuclear energy are real,
 nium, that can be separated out      and the lack of candor, then and later, by industry and government about
 from used fuel rods. Like 235U,      these hazards was even more worrying.
 plutonium can also be used in             After 1979 it was inevitable that greater safety would have to be built
 nuclear weapons.                     into new reactors, adding to their already high cost. In addition, the demand
      At present nine countries       for electricity in the United States was not increasing as fast as expected,
 are known to possess a total of      partly because of efforts toward greater efficiency and partly because of a
 nearly 23,000 of both kinds of
                                      decline in some of the industries (such as steel, cars, and chemicals) that are
 these weapons of mass destruc-
                                      heavy users. As a result, new reactors made less economic sense than before,
 tion, sufficient to wipe out all
 human life many times over, and      which together with widespread public unease led to a halt in the expansion
 other countries could develop        of nuclear energy in the United States.
 them if they wished. The threat           Elsewhere the situation was different. Nuclear reactors still seemed the
 of nuclear weapons prolifera-        best way to meet the energy needs of many countries without adequate fos-
 tion is one of the reasons why       sil fuel resources. Then, in April 1986, a badly planned test caused a severe
 not everybody welcomes the           accident that destroyed a 1-GW reactor at Chernobyl in Ukraine, then part of
 expansion of nuclear energy.         the Soviet Union. This was the worst environmental disaster of technological
                                      origin in history and contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union.
                                           The lack of a containment shell, normal elsewhere, allowed nearly 200 tons
                                      of radioactive material to escape and be carried around the world by winds.
                                      Ukraine, Belarus, and parts of Russia were most affected. The radioactivity in
                                      the fallout was 400 times that produced by the Hiroshima atomic bomb. Radi-
                                      ation levels in many parts of Europe rose well above usual and are still high
                                      enough to represent a hazard in a large area that was downwind of Chernobyl.
                                           About 350,000 residents of the Chernobyl vicinity were permanently
                                      evacuated from their homes, leaving behind ghost towns and villages. Thou-
                                      sands of people became ill, including about 4000 children who developed
                                      thyroid cancer. Because cancer and leukemia also have causes other than
                                      radiation, the death toll from these maladies due to Chernobyl will never be
                                      known; estimates range from thousands to tens of thousands.
                                           As in the United States after Three Mile Island, public anxiety over the
                                      safety of nuclear programs grew abroad after Chernobyl. Some countries, for
                                      instance Italy, then abandoned plans for new reactors and closed down some
                                      existing ones. (Italy today has the most expensive electricity in Europe and
                                      has begun to build reactors again.) In other countries, for instance France,
                                      the logic behind their nuclear programs remained strong enough for them to
                                      continue despite Chernobyl.
                                      Nuclear Energy Today The latest designs for nuclear plants promise major
                                      improvements in efficiency and reliability over previous ones, which makes
Alternative Sources                                                                                            4-25       117


   Nuclear Wastes

   Quite apart from the safety of the reactors themselves        not disintegrate in the presence of heat and radiation but
   is the issue of what to do with the radioactive wastes        is easy to drill into, and little groundwater that might
   they produce. Although a lot of the radioactivity is gone     become contaminated.
   in a few months and much of the rest in a few hundred              In 1987 the United States government chose Yucca
   years, some will continue to be dangerous for millions        Mountain in Nevada as the most suitable site it could
   of years. At present there are no long-term repositories      find for storing nuclear wastes indefinitely, but further
   for nuclear wastes anywhere in the world. Over 60,000         studies that cost over $6 billion brought to light various
   tons of spent nuclear fuel are being stored in the United     serious objections and in 2010 the project was aban-
   States alone in cooling ponds (to prevent overheating)        doned. A new approach is to adapt existing oil-industry
   at 72 reactor installations where they may leak and are       technology to drill holes 5 km deep into hard rock. The
   vulnerable to terrorist attack.                               lowest 2 km of each hole would be filled with containers
        Burying nuclear wastes deep underground would            of spent fuel and then securely capped. At such depths,
   seem to be the best long-term way to dispose of them.         there is little chance that groundwater would be con-
   The right location is easy to specify but not easy to find:   taminated, unlike the case of Yucca Mountain where
   it must be stable geologically with no earthquakes likely,    the burial would have been only about 300 m below the
   no nearby population centers, a type of rock that does        surface.



modern plants cheaper to run per unit of output than their fossil-fuel cous-
ins. They are also safer than before. Together with increasing demand for
energy, the result is an international boom in nuclear plants with new ones
currently being built in 13 countries. In the United States, over two dozen
new nuclear plants are being considered, each of which would cost billions
of dollars and take at least 7 years to build. The International Atomic Energy
Agency thinks global nuclear capacity might quadruple by 2050 if renewable
sources and carbon capture technology are not successful on large enough
scales. But even if the enormous costs could be met, the speed of nuclear
expansion could be limited by shortages of skilled workers, of the needed
construction materials, and of manufacturing capacity; for instance, Japan
has the only steelworks anywhere able to forge reactor containment vessels
($150 million each), and its waiting list is years long.

Nuclear Fusion Enormous as the energy produced by splitting a large atomic
nucleus into smaller ones is, the joining together of small nuclei to form larger
ones gives off even more energy for the same amount of starting materials (see
Sec. 8.12). Such nuclear fusion is the energy source of the sun and stars. Here
on earth, there are what seem to be realistic hopes that fusion will take over the
lead as a source of energy at some time in the future—safe, no greenhouse gases,
very little radioactive waste, and abundant fuel, much of it from the oceans.
    In laboratories, fusion reactors have been built that liberate energy for
short periods as predicted by theory. In order to operate continuously and
to yield energy on a commercial scale, the reactors must be much larger
(a planned experimental reactor called ITER will weigh 23,000 tons), but no
fundamental reason is known why such reactors should not be successful. Of
course, a technical success is not necessarily an economic success, but if it
becomes one before environmental disaster intervenes, fusion energy may be
the ultimate solution to our energy problems.


4.9 Clean Energy I
Continuous Sources
An ideal energy source should not deplete resources or harm the environ-
ment. A number of sources meet these criteria and, despite issues of cost and
location in some cases, electricity is starting to come from them in serious
118       4-26                             Chapter 4   Energy and the Future


                                           amounts: about 5 percent of total electricity in the United States, twice that
                                           in Europe. Just what proportion of global energy demand these sources will
                                           eventually provide remains to be seen, as does the timescale of their adop-
                                           tion, but their increasing popularity is a sign of hope.
                                               “Clean” and sustainable energy sources fall into two categories that
                                           depend on whether they can supply energy continuously (hydroelectric, geo-
                                           thermal) or only at rates that vary with the time of day (solar, tidal) or with
                                           weather conditions (wind, waves). We will first look at the two main continu-
                                           ous sources, moving water and geothermal heat.

                                           Hydroelectricity The kinetic energy of moving water has been used by mills
                                           and factories for centuries, and has powered electric generators since 1870
                                           (Fig. 4-27). Hydropower now provides 2.2 percent of the world’s energy with
                                           capacity up by over 40 percent since 1980. Norway obtains 99 percent of its
                                           electricity from falling water, Brazil 84 percent, Canada 58 percent, and 13
                                           African countries 60 percent or more each.
                                                The United States has a total hydroelectric capacity of 96 GW; its largest
                                           installation, at the Grand Coulee Dam, produces 6.8 GW. The largest hydro-
                                           electric plant now operating anywhere is on the Brazil-Paraguay border and
                                           is rated at 14 GW. When completed, the Three Gorges Dam in China, on
                                           which work began in 1994, will take the lead with a capacity of 22.4 GW. This
                                           dam is the world’s biggest civil engineering project and, together with other
                                           such projects there, will increase China’s total hydroelectric output to half
                                           again its current 129 GW. Major hydroelectric installations are also under
                                           construction or having plans finalized elsewhere, mainly in Asia (a total of
                                           14 GW in India alone) and South America (6.5 GW in Brazil). In Africa, too,
                                           more such installations are projected—with a sixth of the world’s population
                                           it produces only 4 percent of the world’s electricity.
                                                Even when the new dams are completed, only about a third of the world’s
                                           hydroelectric potential will have been utilized. But many of the remaining
                                           sites cannot be exploited economically for a variety of reasons. Furthermore,



Figure 4-27 This hydroelectric
installation on the Niagara River in New
York State has a capacity of 2.2 GW of
electric power. The ultimate source of
this power is sunlight, which evaporates
water that later falls as rain or snow
that drains into the river upstream of
the dam.
Alternative Sources                                                                                               4-27        119


   Geothermal Heat Pumps

   Temperatures at the earth’s surface are affected by solar     are based on geothermal heat pumps that are like the
   radiation and by cold and warm air masses carried by          heat pump described in Sec. 5.13 except that they use the
   winds (see Chap. 14). As a result, they may vary a great      earth as the heat reservoir instead of the outside air. A geo-
   deal between day and night, from one day to the next,         thermal heat pump is extremely efficient and can transfer
   and as seasons change. If we dig down only a meter            as much as 5 joules of heat for each joule of input energy.
   or two, though, we will find a fairly steady year-round       In winter, the system absorbs heat from the ground by
   temperature of 7°C to 21°C (45°F to 75°F), depending on       means of a fluid, usually water, that flows through buried
   location. In much of the world, the underground temper-       pipes. The heat pump in effect then concentrates the heat
   ature is higher in winter and lower in summer than the        and uses it to raise the temperature of air that is circulated
   aboveground one. This means that, compared with con-          inside the building in ducts. In summer, the system is oper-
   ventional heating and air-conditioning methods, a huge        ated in reverse to extract heat from the hot air in the build-
   amount of energy would be saved—and a lot less CO2            ing and discharge it to the cooler earth below the surface.
   emitted—with systems that could heat and cool build-               Geothermal heat pump systems are not cheap to
   ings by transferring heat from the ground in winter and       install, but the reduced energy needed means that they
   to the ground in summer.                                      pay for themselves in a few years. Since they last for 20
        Such systems not only exist but are in use in 33 coun-   years or more with little maintenance, the long-term sav-
   tries; in the United States, about a million have already     ings are considerable, not to mention the benefits to the
   been installed with more added every year. The systems        environment.



an increasingly significant problem with hydropower installations is the
social and environmental damage they may cause, for instance by flooding
wide areas and turning once fertile river valleys into wastelands unfit for
agriculture. The Three Gorges Dam, which created a lake 643 km (about
400 miles) long, has already displaced 1.4 million people. The Chinese govern-
ment expects that 3–4 million more people will have to be relocated in years
to come as the Three Gorges project causes the bed of the Yangtze River to
silt up, its banks to erode, and its waters and those of the lake to become pol-
luted. Environmental concerns have even led to the dismantling of a number
of existing hydropower dams—nearly a hundred in the United States in the
past few years.

Geothermal     Temperature increases with depth in the earth. As we shall
learn in Sec. 15.8, the earth’s heat partly comes from the decay of radioac-
tive minerals in its interior and partly is heat remaining from the earth’s
early history when it was much hotter than today. In many places water
below the surface is hot enough for useful energy to be extracted. One
such place is at The Geysers north of San Francisco where turbines pow-
ered by natural steam drive generators that produce 750 MW of electricity
(Fig. 4-28). Even where suitable hot water or steam is not present under-
ground, water from the surface can be pumped into cracks in deep rock
formations and then recovered as hot water or steam from wells drilled
nearby. Carbon dioxide under pressure can also be used to extract such
geothermal heat. Over their respective lifetimes, geothermal power plants
produce electricity at less cost than coal-fired plants, the cheapest conven-
tional sources.
     At present 24 countries have geothermal power plants with a total capac-
ity of almost 9 GW, and more are being built. Iceland and the Philippines
obtain over a quarter of their electricity from such plants. Indonesia hopes
to achieve a similar proportion by 2025. Although its current share of the
world’s energy supply is only 0.4 percent, a recent study found that geother-
mal energy has enormous potential. In the United States, the world’s largest
producer of geothermal energy with 2.8 GW of capacity at present and 4 GW
more being developed, hot rocks less than 10 km underground could satisfy
all of the country’s electrical needs for the foreseeable future.
120       4-28                        Chapter 4   Energy and the Future


Figure 4-28 This power station
at The Geysers, California, runs on
geothermal energy. It has been
operating since 1960.




                                          Besides a role in generating electricity, hot subsurface water is widely
                                      used for heating purposes, mainly in buildings (nearly all of Iceland’s build-
                                      ings are heated in this way) but also in agriculture to lengthen the growing
                                      season for crops.

                                      Earthquake Hazards For all its promise, geothermal energy has at least one
                                      cloud shadowing its future. Mention was made in Sec. 4.7 of the possibility that
                                      earthquakes could occur when CO2 from fossil-fuel power plants is injected
                                      into underground reservoirs for storage. Such a risk is even more worrying in
                                      geothermal projects that force water at high pressure into hot (over 150°C),
                                      dry rocks to fracture them into a network of cracks. Then water is pumped
                                      down a bore hole to the network, where it boils. The resulting steam comes to
                                      the surface via another hole to drive a steam turbine that powers an electric
                                      generator or for district heating. Progress on an installation of this kind in
                                      Basel, Switzerland, was stopped in 2006 when a series of small earthquakes
                                      was triggered that shook the city; they continued for months afterward.
                                           Unaware of the Basel earthquakes, the U.S. Energy Department approved
                                      and provided some of the financing for a number of similar projects in this
                                      country. The first was to be located in northern California, one of the most
                                      earthquake-prone parts of the world. In 2009, when officials finally learned of the
                                      Basel events, which they said had not been fully disclosed in the project’s appli-
                                      cation (although the company involved disputes this), they ordered work halted.
                                      Conventional geothermal plants that use naturally heated water are not usually
                                      sources of concern, but clearly the water-injection method requires greater care
                                      in the choice of suitable geological regions than has been given thus far.


                                      4.10 Clean Energy II
                                      Variable Sources
                                      Now we consider clean energy sources whose output is not constant. This is not
                                      necessarily a major disadvantage because, when available, their electricity can
                                      replace that from fossil-fuel sources even if only intermittently. And, as mentioned
                                      later, several methods exist for storing the energy of variable sources until needed.

                                      Solar Cells Sunlight is a form of energy in motion and it can deliver a sur-
                                      prising amount of power to each square meter on which it falls. In the United
                                      States, the average ranges from 87 W/m2 in Alaska to 248 W/m2 in Hawaii.
                                      In Chicago, it is 155 W/m2, and at this rate a tennis court there receives solar
                                      energy equivalent to that in a gallon of gasoline every hour and a half.
                                          Photovoltaic (PV) cells are available that convert the energy in sunlight
                                      directly to electricity. Although the supply of sunlight varies with location,
                                      time of day, season, and weather, such solar cells have the advantage of no
                                      moving parts and almost no maintenance. For a given power output solar
Alternative Sources                                                                                         4-29       121


cells are quite a bit more expensive than fossil-fuel plants, but they have no       Solar Water Heating
fuel or operating costs. Improving technology is steadily increasing the effi-
ciency of solar cells, now as much as 20 percent for commercial cells and            Exposing pipe arrays filled with
over 40 percent for experimental ones, and dropping their price.                     water to sunlight is a simple
     Although solar cells now provide less than 0.2 percent of the world’s elec-     and cheap way to capture solar
tricity, installed capacity is growing and should at least reach 4 percent of        energy for household hot water
the total by 2020. Some countries are leaders: Germany, for instance, despite        and space heating. About 90 GW
its often cloudy skies, has 3 GW of solar cells, over half the world’s solar-cell    of solar energy is exploited in
capacity, on the roofs of 300,000 homes and businesses. China is installing          this way every year worldwide.
2 GW of solar cells on a desert site larger than Manhattan in Inner Mongolia.        Two-thirds of this energy is col-
                                                                                     lected in China, where by replac-
By 2020, this project and others are expected to have enlarged the country’s
                                                                                     ing fossil-fuel burning, CO2
solar capacity to 20 GW (which is still only half the capacity of the coal-fired
                                                                                     emissions are reduced by several
power plants that are being built there every year). India has the same              hundred million tons annually.
20 GW target for 2020, rising to 200 GW for 2050; the United States is expected           In other countries such
to exceed 15 GW of solar capacity by 2020. But if the new ideas currently            direct solar water heating is
being studied for cheaper, more efficient technology succeed, these projec-          less common, only 1.8 percent
tions may turn out to be serious underestimates—the advances in computer             of the world total in the United
technology in the recent past also outran reasonable expectations.                   States, for instance. Solar water
     A big advantage of solar cells is that they can be placed close to where        heaters are now mandatory on
their electricity is to be used, for instance on rooftops (Fig. 4-29). This can      new buildings in Hawaii, as
mean major savings because it eliminates distribution costs in rural areas           they have been since 2006 in
                                                                                     parts of Spain.
where power lines would otherwise have to be built. In Kenya, more house-
holds get their electricity from solar cells than from power plants. Even when
electricity grids exist, rooftop solar cells are becoming common. As part of
California’s efforts to have more of its energy needs come from renewable
sources, the “One Million Solar Roofs” program will have 3 GW of partly
subsidized solar panels installed by 2018.

Concentrated Solar Power In another approach, called concentrated solar
power (CSP), solar energy is first converted into heat, which is then used
to produce steam for turbines that drive electric generators. Such installa-
tions cost much less than PV ones of the same capacity but are practical only
where there is open land with reliable sunshine. In one CSP method, curved
mirrors form troughs that focus sunlight on pipes filled with oil that becomes
very hot as a result. The hot oil then turns water into steam in a boiler; it can
be stored in an insulated tank and can release its heat during the night. Nine

                                                                                    Figure 4-29 Array of solar cells being
                                                                                    installed over the back porch of a house
                                                                                    in California.
122       4-30                                Chapter 4   Energy and the Future


                                              arrays of this kind in the Mohave Desert in California have been furnishing
                                              354 MW of electricity for over 20 years (Fig. 4-30). An array in Nevada, with
                                              19,300 4-m pipes, yields 64 MW.
                                                  Instead of using fixed curved mirrors, another CSP system has a large num-
                                              ber of movable flat mirrors that track the sun to direct sunlight on a receiver atop
                                              a central tower. In the receiver, sunlight heats molten salt that goes to a boiler.
                                              This arrangement produces steam at a much higher temperature than trough-
                                              type ones do, which improves turbine efficiency (Sec. 5.14). The hot molten salt
                                              can be stored to enable electricity to be generated at night, which is done in a
                                              17-MW plant in Spain. New large-scale CSP projects of both kinds are under
                                              way around the world, including a $2 billion, 500-MW facility in California.

                                              Wind Windmills are nothing new and were once widely used for such tasks
                                              as grinding grain and pumping water. Holland alone had 9000 of them.
                                              Now windmills are back in fashion for generating electricity, and although
                                              they are practical only where winds are powerful and reliable, such winds
                                              are found in many parts of the world (Fig.  4-31). Today somewhat over


Figure 4-30 This concentrated solar
power (CSP) installation in the Mohave
Desert uses thousands of curved
mirrors to direct sunlight to heat oil that
then generates steam to power turbine
generators.




Figure 4-31 Wind turbine “farm”
near Palm Springs, California. Such
farms consist of as many as several
hundred turbines and can supply
energy to tens of thousands of homes
and businesses. The largest wind farm
in the United States is in Texas and has
a capacity of 780 MV. As in the case of
solar power, the wind power potential
in the United States will exceed its
needs for the foreseeable future.
Alternative Sources                                                                                           4-31      123


   A Solar Future?

   How much land would be needed for solar collectors to         density of 319 people per square mile whereas the
   provide all of the 3 TW of power the United States con-       United States averages only 82. There is little open
   sumes? This will tell us whether there is a fundamental       land in Europe as well as less sunshine than in the
   limit to the potential for solar energy in the country. If    United States. But not far away lie the empty deserts of
   we consider land in the sunny Southwest and assume            North Africa and the Middle East, which have enough
   an overall efficiency of 10 percent for a system of collec-   area for CSP installations that could satisfy the whole
   tors plus overnight energy storage facilities, the answer     world’s electrical appetite, let alone Europe’s. A group
   is roughly 52,000 square miles. This is 1.5 percent of the    of 12 European industrial, utility, and financial com-
   total area of the United States; 10 percent of the com-       panies is organizing a bold $580 billion project called
   bined areas of Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico; less          Desertec that would use CSP collectors in these deserts
   than half the area of America’s national parks. So there is   to produce 15 percent of Europe’s electricity by 2050.
   enough land for any desired amount of solar energy, espe-     Twenty high-voltage, direct-current power lines (Sec.
   cially since any realistic scenario for the future would      6.19) would carry the electricity under the Mediterra-
   have other renewable sources—and perhaps nuclear              nean Sea to Europe. Is this a better idea than planting
   fusion reactors as well—carrying part of the load.            more PV panels on European rooftops? Not everybody
        From a global perspective, the picture changes.          thinks so.
   Europe, for instance, has an average population




2 percent of the world’s electricity comes from wind, slightly more than the
proportion in the United States.
     A typical large modern turbine has three fiberglass- or carbon fiber-
reinforced blades 60 m long that turn up to 22 times per minute to generate
up to 5 MW. Such a turbine starts to produce electricity at a wind speed of
about 9 mi/h, reaches full power at about 31 mi/h, and is shut down to pre-
vent damage in storm winds of 56 mi/h or more. Its average output naturally
depends on the usual winds at its location, with 40 percent of the maximum
considered good. Because turbine efficiency increases with size, 10-MW tur-
bines with 75-m blades are in prospect, which would bring the cost of wind
electricity closer to those of fossil-fuel or nuclear power plants without their
disadvantages.
     Wind is the world’s fastest-growing (over 20 percent per year) source of
renewable emission-free energy; its potential remains barely tapped. Wind
turbines have been installed in 80 countries thus far. The global total of wind
energy capacity is over 160 GW, up from 59 GW in 2005; the United States
has the most, over 50 GW, closely followed by China with Germany, Spain,
and India farther behind. In the United States, Texas produces by far the
most wind energy, with Iowa, California, and Minnesota next. The country
hopes to have 300 GW of wind capacity by 2030, which would provide a fifth
of its electrical demand. China, too, is marching ahead, with six giant wind
farms planned of 10–20 GW capacity each, plus smaller ones.
     More and more turbine farms are being sited in shallow offshore waters
where they have minimal environmental impact and can take advantage of
the stronger and steadier winds there. Such farms are about twice as expen-
sive as onshore ones. Denmark (the largest builder of wind turbines) expects
to generate half of its electricity by 2025 from offshore turbines; it is over
a third of the way there already. Contracts have been signed for nine wind
farms with about 6000 giant turbines to be installed off the British coast
starting in 2013 at an estimated cost of $120 billion. With a total capacity
of 30 GW, the turbines will help the U.K. meet its target of obtaining 40 per-
cent of its electricity from renewable sources by 2020. In the United States,
a wind farm of 130 turbines with a total capacity of 468 MW proposed for
an offshore location south of Cape Cod in Massachusetts finally received fed-
eral approval in 2010 after 9 years of opposition from local residents. The
124       4-32                           Chapter 4   Energy and the Future


                                         farm, which would be the first of its kind in the country, is planned to cover
                                         24 square miles and cost $1 billion. It is expected to be followed by at least
                                         half a dozen other wind farms in the shallow waters off the U.S. East Coast
                                         and in the Great Lakes. In Europe’s North Sea, which has a great many oil
                                         and gas production platforms already in place, wind turbines are beginning
                                         to sprout atop them to power their operations; using existing platforms saves
                                         a third of the cost.

                                         Tides The twice daily rise and fall of the tides (Sec. 1.10) is accompanied
                                         by corresponding flows of water into and out of bays and river mouths. Har-
                                         nessing the considerable energy involved is another old idea: in Europe, tide
                                         mills go back to the twelfth century. Tidal power is reliable and has low oper-
                                         ating costs. On the other hand, the tidal cycle means that there is no energy
                                         output for two periods of a few hours per day, which leaves a large invest-
                                         ment idle for that part of the time.
                                              There are two main approaches to extracting energy from the tides.
                                         One of them involves spanning a narrow inlet on a coast that has a large—
                                         over 5 m—tidal range with a dam that traps water on a rising tide and then
                                         directs it to turbine generators when the water level outside has dropped. An
                                         installation of this kind in the Rance River in northern France has supplied
                                         240 MW of peak electric power since 1966 (Fig. 4-32). In South Korea a new
                                         254 MW tidal power installation, for the time being the world’s largest, will
                                         be followed in 2014 by another one whose capacity will be 812 MW and cost
                                         $1.9 billion. Even bigger tidal plants are being contemplated elsewhere, for
                                         instance in England’s Severn Estuary, where the tidal range of over 13 m is
                                         second only to the range in the Bay of Fundy in eastern Canada. Turbine
                                         generators set in a 16-km barrage would furnish 8.6 GW of peak power,
                                         5 percent of the country’s needs. On the downside of tidal power, apart from
                                         its expense ($30 billion or so for the Severn installation), there is the risk that
                                         altering tidal flow patterns may harm local ecosystems.
                                              The other approach is to use submerged turbines to drive generators as
                                         tidal currents run back and forth past their blades. An undersea tidal farm
                                         of this kind can be on a small scale that avoids the cost and environmental
                                         issues of a dam. Such farms have been installed off the Norwegian coast and
                                         in New York’s East River; locations for others in the United States and else-
                                         where are being studied.

                                         Waves As anybody who has stood in the surf or watched waves dash against
                                         a rocky shore knows, waves carry energy in abundance. A number of schemes
Figure 4-32 This 1966 barrage across     have been thought up to capture this energy, which ultimately comes from
the Rance River in France uses tidal     the sun whose uneven heating of the atmosphere causes the winds that ruffle
flows to drive turbine generators that   the seas. In one of them ocean waves run up a sloping funnel-like channel to
supply 240 MW of peak electric power.
                                         a reservoir above. Water from the reservoir then powers a turbine generator
                                         on its way back down to the ocean. But this simple system is feasible only
                                         where the seabed is so shaped that wave energy is focused on a particular
                                         spot on a coast and where the winds that drive the waves are usually onshore.
                                             A wave energy converter that can be used anywhere, called Pelamis (after
                                         a species of sea serpent), employs a series of semisubmerged cylindrical sec-
                                         tions 180 m long and 4 m in diameter that are hinged together. The sections
                                         swing back and forth relative to one another when waves pass by, and these
                                         motions drive pumps that force oil at high pressure to hydraulic motors cou-
                                         pled to electric generators. Each section has a maximum output of 750 W.
                                         Several Pelamis arrays have been operated in tests off the British and Portu-
                                         guese coasts. A number of other wave energy conversion schemes are under
                                         development. If all goes well, the future may see 30-MW arrays that would
                                         each be spread over a square kilometer of ocean near many of the world’s
                                         coasts.
Alternative Sources                                                                   4-33   125


4.11 Energy Storage
Options for Variable Sources and Vehicles
Effective ways to store energy on a large scale to even out its supply from
variable sources are clearly desirable. In addition, to replace oil-based vehi-
cle fuels will require improved or entirely new forms of portable energy stor-
age. Storage systems for both purposes are already in limited use, and a great
deal of work is going on to improve them and to try to come up with better
new ones.
Bulk Storage    Electric energy from a variable source not needed at a particu-
lar time can be stored as gravitational potential energy by using it to pump
water up to a high reservoir. Then, at night when there is no sunshine, or
when the wind stops, or when the tide is not running, the water is allowed
to fall through turbine generators. Four such systems have been installed
in Britain and one in California, with two more planned there. In a variant
of this arrangement, Denmark sends surplus electricity from its wind farms
to Norway to be used instead of electricity from Norwegian hydroelectric
plants, thereby conserving water in the reservoirs to use for returning elec-
tricity to Denmark when winds there are light.
     In another scheme, air can be pumped into a sealed underground cavern,
an abandoned mine, or an exhausted natural-gas well and the compressed
air later released to power a generator. An advantage here is that suitable cav-
erns are more common than elevated sites for water reservoirs. Compressed
air storage facilities have been operating in Germany since 1978 and in
Alabama since 1991, and a large new one is being developed in California.
     In a storage battery, electric energy is converted into chemical energy
that can subsequently be converted back into electric energy (Sec. 12.13).
The rechargeable batteries familiar in cars and in electronic devices of many
kinds are not suitable for the substantial amounts of energy involved in com-
mercial power generation. However, “flow batteries” have been devised in
which the energy-rich chemicals of the charged battery do not have to remain
there but can be pumped out into separate tanks while fresh starting chemi-
cals replace them. Reversing the flow allows the stored energy to return to its
original electric form for withdrawal. Flow batteries are more complex than
conventional ones and their technology is still being improved. Still, various
kinds have been on the market for some time and their capacities are going
up; a 432-GJ flow battery is being built for a 15-MW power system in the
United Kingdom.
Electric Cars Hybrids that use electric motors powered by storage batteries
to supplement gasoline engines, as described in Sec. 4.5, were introduced as
far back as 1997. All-electric cars (Fig. 4.33) have recently joined hybrids on
the road thanks to better storage batteries that can deliver ranges adequate
for commuting and journeys of modest length. All storage batteries have the
handicap of low energy densities (energy content per kilogram) compared
with gasoline and diesel fuel, only 1/300 as much in the case of traditional
lead-acid batteries. Lithium-ion batteries of the kind used in electronic equip-
ment such as laptop computers have up to six times higher energy densities
than lead-acid batteries, but even they are heavy: the Tesla Roadster, the first
all-electric car with a range of over 200 miles, is powered by 6831 lithium-ion
cells that weigh almost half a ton and take 3.5 h to charge. (The car is named
after the electricity pioneer Nikola Tesla.)
     The overall energy efficiency of an all-electric car, starting from the source
of the grid electricity used to charge its batteries, is considerably higher than
that of an ordinary car, with the cost per mile a quarter as much. The saving
is even greater when the charging is done at night at lower off-peak electricity
126       4-34                               Chapter 4   Energy and the Future


Figure 4-33 The all-electric Tesla S
sedan has a range of up to 300 miles,
depending on the battery pack chosen.
If the electricity supply is suitable, its
batteries can be recharged in 45 min.
Discharged batteries can be swapped
for fully charged ones in 5 min.




                                             rates. An electric car emits no CO2 itself, of course, and the CO2 from the gen-
                                             erating plants that produce the electricity used to charge its batteries is less
                                             than half that emitted by an ordinary car. Electric cars will be even greener in
                                             the future as alternative sources replace fossil-fuel plants.
                                                  Most of the world’s major car companies are starting to build electric
                                             cars, which they expect to take a larger and larger share of the car market.
                                             Germany is supporting a program to have a million electric cars on its roads
                                             by 2020, and the United States government is helping to finance efforts to
                                             improve batteries for electric cars. Thirteen of China’s largest cities will have
                                             all-electric bus fleets by 2014.
                                                  For most driving, the limited range of an electric car is acceptable, espe-
                                             cially as charging stations are already being installed in parking lots and
                                             garages in the United States and Europe. Two-thirds of American commutes
                                             are 15 miles or less each way. Charging times of 3–5 hours are being brought
                                             down; the batteries of the Tesla S sedan can be charged in 45 minutes from
                                             480-V outlets, and as little as 10 minutes does not seem impossible for future
                                             batteries.
                                                  To get around the problem of long trips, some manufacturers provide
                                             their plug-in electric cars with gasoline-driven generators (or even gasoline
                                             propulsion engines), so the result is really a hybrid, not an electric car. The
                                             Chevrolet Volt is a hybrid of this kind whose range under battery alone is
                                             40 miles. Another approach is to establish networks of stations that can
                                             recharge or even replace batteries low on charge rapidly. Such networks are
                                             now being installed in a number of countries by a company called A Better
                                             Place; its name comes from what it hopes the world will be if its efforts succeed.

                                             Hydrogen and Fuel Cells As we can see in Fig. 4-14, mass for mass, hydrogen
                                             liberates more energy when it combines with oxygen than any of the other
                                             fuels listed—three times as much as gasoline, for instance. It is a clean fuel
                                             as well: the only product of its use is water, with no carbon dioxide or harm-
                                             ful pollutants. Unfortunately, although hydrogen is by far the most abundant
                                             element in the universe, on earth it is found only in compounds with other
                                             elements (notably with oxygen in water, H2O) and must be separated out
                                             from them. Therefore hydrogen is really a storage and delivery medium and
                                             not a primary fuel in itself.
Alternative Sources                                                                                          4-35        127


    Nowadays, hydrogen is usually produced by reacting natural gas with              Not a New Idea
steam, with CO2 as a by-product. This process depletes a resource and
contributes to global warming. Another, more expensive method called                 In his 1874 novel The Mysteri-
electrolysis (Sec. 10.17) involves passing electric current through water to         ous Island, one of Jules Verne’s
break up its H2O molecules into their hydrogen and oxygen components.                characters predicts that “water
Electrolysis requires as much input energy as the energy obtained by recom-          one day will be employed as
bining the hydrogen and oxygen later. If the input energy comes from fossil-         fuel, that hydrogen and oxygen
fuel plants, as it would today, resources are again not conserved and CO2            which constitute it . . . will fur-
is added to the atmosphere. In the long run, to be sure, alternative sources         nish an inexhaustible source of
could supply clean energy and perhaps bacteria or algae will be found that           heat and light . . . Water will be
                                                                                     the coal of the future.” Another
can liberate hydrogen on a commercial basis from plant materials or during
                                                                                     character responds (as do we
photosynthesis; they already do so in the laboratory, but inefficiently.
                                                                                     all), “I should like to see that.”
    Hydrogen can be used to provide energy in two ways. One is simply by
burning it, which is done in welding torches and in spacecraft propulsion
engines. Under development are cars that use hydrogen in place of gasoline
in similar engines.
    The other approach employs fuel cells, devices in which hydrogen and
oxygen react directly to produce water and electricity rather than water
and heat. Unlike batteries, which also obtain electric current directly from
chemical reactions, fuel cells can provide current indefinitely without hav-
ing to be replaced or recharged because the working substances are fed in
continuously.
    The electricity output from a hydrogen fuel cell can be used to power an
electric vehicle just as electricity from a battery can (Fig. 4-34). As a vehicle
fuel, however, hydrogen has a major storage problem because under ordi-
nary conditions it is a gas that takes up far too much volume for the energy
a car needs. In liquid form, it is compact enough, but to liquify hydrogen
means cooling it below −253°C, which takes up to 40 percent of its energy
content. Hydrogen can also be squeezed into a suitably smaller space by a
pressure about 700 times that of the atmosphere—which means 5 tons per
square inch—which also takes energy. In either case, the required tank is
quite heavy, though not as heavy as batteries that hold equivalent energy.
    But even if the problems of fuel-cell technology and of practical hydro-
gen production and storage are solved, there is also the chicken-and-egg situ-
ation in which nobody wants to install a vastly expensive supply system (the
United States has about 160,000 gasoline stations) before cars exist to use


                                                                                    Figure 4-34 This prototype bus is
                                                                                    powered by fuel cells that operate on
                                                                                    hydrogen. Similar technology is used
                                                                                    in cars from other manufacturers,
                                                                                    which are undergoing road tests, but
                                                                                    commercial models are not expected
                                                                                    for some time. Such vehicles are more
                                                                                    efficient than gasoline- or diesel-fueled
                                                                                    ones, and in their operation only water
                                                                                    vapor is given off. However, they are
                                                                                    more expensive to build and operate
                                                                                    than battery-powered electric vehicles,
                                                                                    which are expected to be in the
                                                                                    majority in the future.
128   4-36   Chapter 4   Energy and the Future


             them, and nobody wants to buy a fuel-cell car before there are filling sta-
             tions for it everywhere. The advantages of battery-powered electric cars over
             their fuel-cell cousins make them by far the favorites to take over the world’s
             roads.


             4.12 Biofuels
             Yes, But
             Biofuels made from plant matter are obviously renewable and have the
             advantage that the CO2 given off when they are burned will be absorbed
             afterward during photosynthesis by the next crop to be grown (Sec. 13.12).
             Under the right circumstances they could bring energy independence closer
             in many countries. However, it is not at all clear that biofuels as a class have
             yet made much, if any, progress toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions
             even as they replace fossil fuels. When the entire life cycles of their produc-
             tion and use are considered, today the only commercial biofuels environmen-
             tally superior to fossil fuels are ethanol from sugar cane and biodiesel from
             used cooking oil. Government subsidies for biofuels have cost huge sums,
             and because most current biofuels are made from food crops, food prices
             have increased in a number of regions. Fortunately, new biofuel technologies
             are on the way that will not compete with food crops.
                  The simplest way to use crops—and organic wastes such as municipal
             garbage, manure, scrap paper, and so on—for energy is just to burn them,
             either by themselves to make steam to heat buildings and generate electricity
             or in coal-fired power plants alongside coal. More and more installations of
             both kinds are coming into use, waste disposal being an especial attraction
             in many cities. However, a number of problems, such as supply limitations
             and pollution control, make this approach unlikely to provide more than a
             relatively small fraction of the world’s total energy needs.
                  Biofuels for vehicles are a different story. Ethanol—the alcohol in bev-
             erages such as wine, beer, and whiskey—yields almost two-thirds as much
             energy when burned as gasoline and can be added to or even be used instead
             of gasoline in car engines. Henry Ford’s first Model T cars, introduced in
             1908, could run on either ethanol or gasoline. Diesel engines cannot run on
             ethanol, but “biodiesel” made from various plant oils and animal fats can
             similarly supplement or replace diesel fuel derived from petroleum.
                  Vehicle biofuels are receiving more and more attention with over
             40 countries encouraging their use by various subsidies and requirements.
             Worldwide ethanol production has more than tripled since 2000 and biodie-
             sel even more. The United States, the European Union, and China have set
             ambitious targets for vehicle biofuels, in the case of the United States a four-
             fold increase in alternatives to gasoline by 2022. Currently biofuels provide
             about 2 percent of the energy used globally for transport.

             Ethanol Fuel ethanol in the United States, the world’s leading producer,
             comes from corn; in Brazil, in second place, it comes from sugar cane. The
             two countries share 90 percent of the total market.
                 Sugar cane is about 10 times as efficient as most other plants in utilizing
             solar energy. The sugar in its juice can be directly fermented by yeasts into
             ethanol, which is then extracted by distillation. In Brazil, which has large
             areas of land suitable for sugar cane cultivation, all cars use ethanol, either
             by itself or blended with gasoline. This has cut Brazil’s consumption of gaso-
             line in half and lowered its CO2 emissions considerably. There is less air pol-
             lution in Brazilian cities as well. China is a customer of Brazilian ethanol
             in the hope of similarly reducing the pollution of its urban air, among the
             world’s worst.
Alternative Sources                                                                                                     4-37         129


   Algae to the Rescue?

   Certain algae can produce an oil
   whose conversion to various bio-
   fuels is straightforward. This
   approach was studied in the 1970s
   and 1980s but experiments stopped
   when crude oil became cheaper. In
   new work to carry the idea further,
   suitable algae, some genetically
   modified for the purpose, are being
   grown in ponds that have CO2 bub-
   bled up through them for the algae
   to use with water and sunlight in
   the photosynthesis that nourishes
   them. If the CO2 is piped in from
   fossil-fuel plants, their CO2 emis-
   sions would be used productively,
   a better alternative to just releasing
   them into the atmosphere or even to
   burying them underground.
        An acre of soybeans can yield           Figure 4-35 Reactors at the 1.04-GW Redhawk gas-fired power plant in Arizona
   60 gallons of biofuel per year and an        use algae to convert some of its CO2 emissions to biodiesel with the help of water
   acre of corn 260 gallons, whereas an         and sunlight.
   acre of algae might be able to yield
   more than 2000 gallons without
   using agricultural land. If deriving     would correspond to only a few per-           light, with CO2 circulated through
   biofuel from algae proves practical      cent of the area used for the coun-           them (Fig.  4-35). In both cases,
   on the scale required, which is not      try’s agriculture.                            it seems possible for sewage or
   certain, all the transport fuel needs         Another method being tried has           fertilizer-laden agricultural runoff
   of the United States could perhaps       the algae confined to water-filled            water to provide the other nutrients
   be supplied from ponds whose area        plastic containers exposed to sun-            algae require, another plus.



    In the United States, a lot of fossil-fuel energy is needed to grow corn
and to process it into ethanol (the starch in the corn must first be converted
into sugars). As a result, each gallon of corn ethanol takes five to eight times
the energy to produce as a gallon of cane ethanol and is accordingly more
expensive. Using corn ethanol instead of gasoline does little to reduce net
CO2 emissions; if coal is one of the fossil fuels used to produce the ethanol,
the result is an increase in CO2 emissions. (Using cane ethanol gives a reduc-
tion of 90 percent.) When forests and grasslands are cleared to grow corn,
around a century may be needed before there is any CO2 benefit.
    Then what are the attractions of corn ethanol in the United States? To
begin with, there are generous subsidies to corn farmers and a tax credit for
converting corn to ethanol that costs taxpayers over $5 billion per year. Sec-
ond, a 2007 law requires that increasing minimum amounts of corn ethanol
be used in vehicle fuels, so there is a guaranteed market for it. Third, the
government maintains the price of sugar too high for it to be an economical
source of ethanol, and a substantial tariff keeps out cheap cane ethanol from
Brazil. Finally, high oil prices make ethanol more competitive with gasoline
(though oil prices tend to vary considerably and when they come down, etha-
nol production does too).
    As the problematic aspects of corn ethanol come into focus, a number of
countries are reducing or eliminating the subsidies and other inducements
for its use that once seemed like good ideas. The United States, the largest
producer and user by far, is studying ways to reduce the environmental costs
of biofuels, especially those of corn ethanol.
130     4-38                         Chapter 4   Energy and the Future



 Food Versus Fuel                    Cellulosic Ethanol   Fortunately the drawbacks to corn ethanol apply with
                                     much less force to cellulosic ethanol. Cellulose is the main constituent of
 Increasingly worrying is the        all plants (Sec. 13.11) and agricultural waste, wood, and certain grasses are
 use of agricultural land for fuel   cheap and abundant sources; municipal waste contains a great deal of cel-
 rather than for food in a time      lulose. Some grasses yield several times as much ethanol per acre as corn
 of expanding population (see        and can grow on poor agricultural land. Furthermore obtaining ethanol from
 Fig.  4-1): 230,000 new mouths      cellulose involves far less fossil-fuel energy than in the case of corn ethanol,
 every day. The corn needed for      and up to a 70 percent reduction in CO2 emissions. Starting from sugar cane
 the ethanol to fill an SUV’s fuel   is even better, but there is far more cellulose available and at less cost. The
 tank would feed a person for        trouble is that, while going from cellulose to ethanol has been done in
 a year. Over a fifth of the corn
                                     the laboratory, it is not quite practical to do so on an industrial scale. But
 harvest in the United States—
 which produces 40 percent of
                                     sooner or later workable methods will inevitably be found, and cellulosic
 the world’s corn—already goes       ethanol is likely to push aside corn ethanol on its way to becoming a major
 to make ethanol, a proportion       vehicle fuel. Some think cellulosic ethanol rather than electricity will power
 still climbing.                     the cars of the future. Ethanol is not the only biofuel that can be made from
       The diversion of corn to      cellulosic raw materials, of which over 1.3 billion tons annually are thought
 fuel has helped drive its price     to be available in the United States without affecting the food supply.
 sharply upward everywhere,
 as has happened with other          Biodiesel    A century ago some of Rudolf Diesel’s first engines ran on peanut
 crops that farmers are replac-      oil. Vegetable oils, now in processed form, are once again powering such
 ing with corn. With animal feed     engines either by themselves or in blends with ordinary diesel fuel. Soy,
 more expensive, meat and dairy      palm, rapeseed (canola), cottonseed, and sunflower oils are all feedstocks
 products also cost more. For        for biodiesel. Vegetable oils and animal fats that have already been used for
 the world’s poor, many of them      cooking, charmingly known in the trade as “yellow grease,” are a cheaper
 in Africa, this is bad news that
                                     source of biodiesel but their supply is more limited. Soybeans are respon-
 is getting worse as corn ethanol
 production rises. Both of the
                                     sible for most of the biodiesel produced in the United States, with an energy
 U.N.’s food agencies regard bio-    yield of 2 J for each joule of input. Other oils have even better yields and need
 fuel production warily; a report    considerably less land. On an overall basis, biodiesel use involves less CO2
 to one of them concluded that       emission—the amount of reduction depends on the source—than the use of
 using food crops for biofuels is    conventional diesel fuel or of ethanol from corn. Biodiesel is at present more
 “a crime against humanity.”         expensive to produce than conventional diesel fuel, but, as with ethanol,
                                     its sale is subsidized or required, or both, in many countries, including the
                                     United States, and its share of the market is going up. In the United States,
                                     biodiesel use is expected to increase by 50 percent to 630 million gallons per
                                     year by 2020, about a sixth of it coming from yellow grease and the rest from
                                     soybeans.
                                          Although biodiesel is a relatively green fuel in itself, growing the crops
                                     from which it comes may not be. For instance, the rapeseed that is the pri-
                                     mary oil source in Europe often needs so much fertilizer made using natural
                                     gas that overall CO2 emissions remain high. Even worse are destructive farm-
                                     ing practices in some countries. In a notorious case, Indonesian swamps are
                                     being drained and the peat under them burned to make room for palm-oil
                                     plantations. The result is 2 billion tons of CO2 entering the atmosphere annu-
                                     ally, 8 percent of global CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels—far more
                                     CO2 than using the palm oil grown there could ever save in the future. The
                                     European Union now bans the import of biofuels whose production involves
                                     degrading the environment in ways such as this.

  Strategies for the Future
                                     Clearly no simple solution to the problem of providing safe, clean, cheap,
                                     and abundant energy is possible in the near future. But there is much that
                                     can be done, first of all by improving the efficiency of energy use, which gives
                                     a much better return on investment than any form of energy generation.
                                     A serious effort could probably save the United States at least half of the elec-
                                     tricity it now consumes, for instance. This would mean changes in how we
Strategies for the Future                                                                                    4-39        131


live: technology alone could not do the job. Also essential is to sensibly utilize
the various available renewable sources and to expand the production of fis-
sion nuclear energy, all the while trying to make fusion energy practical as
soon as possible. If the world’s population also stabilizes or, better, decreases,
social disaster (starvation, war) and environmental catastrophe (a planet
unfit for life) may well be avoided even if fusion never becomes practical.


4.13 Conservation
Less Is More
Our children and grandchildren will have to live with the results of what is
done (and not done) today about the energy problem and the global warm-
ing and resource depletion that are part of it. Is there anything we, as users
of energy in our personal lives and in our work, can do that will earn their
respect? The answer is yes, taking conservation seriously can make a real dif-
ference if enough of us participate, and our pocketbooks will benefit as well.
As the saying goes, not to be part of the solution is to be part of the problem.
     Major opportunities to save energy during their years of use come in the
intelligent design and careful construction of new buildings, both residen-
tial and commercial. The best new buildings need less than 20 percent as
much energy as older ones for heating, cooling, and lighting. Existing homes
almost always benefit from better insulation (including double glazing) and
attention to excluding drafts. Upgrading to more efficient space and water
heaters, kitchen and laundry appliances, and so forth usually pay for them-
selves in lower running costs while helping the planet by reducing energy
use. Simply painting roofs white can cut the electricity consumed by air-
conditioning by as much as 20 percent; a move to “cool roofs” is under way in
many warm parts of the world (Fig. 4-36). (In fact, roads cover so much area
that using light-colored surfaces instead of black ones would reflect enough
sunlight back into space to moderate global warming by a useful amount.)
     In everyday life, replacing ordinary lightbulbs with energy-saving ones,
loading dishwashers full, not using hot water in clothes washers, and hang-
ing laundry out to dry all help, as does setting thermostats for heating lower
than usual in winter and for air-conditioning higher than usual in summer.
Buying fuel-efficient cars, driving them at moderate speeds, and sharing


                                                                                     Figure 4-36 Rooftops painted white,
                                                                                     such as this one in Washington, D.C.,
                                                                                     reflect rather than absorb sunlight and
                                                                                     so reduce the energy consumed by air-
                                                                                     conditioning in summer.
132     4-40                            Chapter 4   Energy and the Future



  New Lightbulbs

  In an ordinary incandescent light-         longer. A compact fluorescent light-    has been completed in some coun-
  bulb a tungsten filament glows             bulb (CFL), like the ones shown in      tries, for instance Australia and
  when heated by the passage of an           Fig. 4-37, that replaces an ordinary    Brazil.
  electric current. Such bulbs are           bulb of the same brightness saves            Eventually light-emitting diodes
  very inefficient; about 95 percent of      several times its additional cost       (LEDs) may well take over the light-
  the energy they consume becomes            each year in electricity bills and      ing market. LEDs employ microchip
  heat, and there are billions of            hundreds of pounds of CO2 emitted       technology like that used in modern
  them—perhaps 4 billion in the              by a fossil-fuel power plant.           electronic devices and are compact,
  United States alone, using 9 per-               A 2007 law calls for phasing       rugged, and versatile. The best cur-
  cent of all its electricity. They last     out 100-W incandescent bulbs in         rent ones are two to three times as
  around 1000 hours.                         the United States in stages between     efficient as CFLs and last 50,000
       In a fluorescent tube an elec-        2012 and 2014 in favor of energy-       hours, with room for improvement
  tric discharge causes the atoms            saving bulbs such as CFLs. The          on both counts. Another advan-
  in a mercury vapor to emit invis-          result will be to cut $18 billion per   tage is that, unlike CFLs, they have
  ible ultraviolet light. A coating of a     year from electricity charges and       no mercury to dispose of safely
  material called a phosphor on the          reduce CO2 emissions by about           when discarded. LEDs are already
  inside of the glass tube absorbs the       160 million tons, equivalent to tak-    widely used in instrument light-
  ultraviolet light and, in a process        ing tens of millions of cars off the    ing, flashlights, traffic signals,
  called fluorescence, gives off vis-        roads or shutting down as many as       street lights, and car headlights—
  ible light. Fluorescent lamps are          80 coal-fired power plants. Phas-       a few among an increasing list
  about 5 times as efficient as incan-       ing out incandescent bulbs is under     of applications—but are still too
  descent ones and last up to 10 times       way in Europe and elsewhere, and        expensive for general lighting.


  Figure 4-37 A compact fluorescent
  bulb uses much less power for a
  given light output than an ordinary
  incandescent bulb.




                                        rides instead of going alone have always been good ideas, as is keeping in
                                        mind that buses and trains average as little as a tenth as much energy per
                                        passenger-mile as cars do. Everything counts: just switching computers,
                                        audio and video equipment, coffeemakers, and other devices off instead of
                                        leaving them on standby at night would eliminate at least 5 percent of resi-
                                        dential energy use in the United States, equivalent to the output of 18 typical
                                        power stations.
                                            Recycling can help: to recycle aluminum uses less than 9 percent as
                                        much energy as to refine it from its ores, and billions of aluminum cans are
                                        discarded every year. Recycling other metals, glass, plastic bottles, paper, and
                                        cardboard also conserves energy and raw materials and is kinder to the envi-
                                        ronment than burial in landfills or burning in incinerators. San Francisco’s
Strategies for the Future                                                                               4-41       133


recycling rate of 70 percent, well above the U.S. average of 33 percent, shows     Smart Meters
what can be done.
    Industry, too, cannot continue with business as usual. As with individ-        A “smart” electric meter in a
uals, those companies that have adopted better practices have often found          home tells its residents at any
them to save money as well as contributing to a healthy planet. Thus DuPont        time how much electricity is
has cut CO2 emissions severely in recent years while saving billions of dollars    being consumed (in some cases
in energy costs through greater efficiency. General Electric is another con-       by which circuits) so they can
vert and has brought its CO2 emissions down despite an expansion that oth-         manage its use efficiently. A
erwise would have increased them. GE is sure that clean and energy-efficient       local utility’s cost of electricity
technologies are its future.                                                       increases with demand above a
                                                                                   certain base level, and its rates
    These are not isolated examples: environmental awareness is now more
                                                                                   to large businesses are changed
and more accepted as part of good corporate citizenship. A recent survey of
                                                                                   accordingly during each day.
business leaders around the world put environmental concerns at the top            Smart meters enable the util-
of a list of the issues that will be most important to their companies in the      ity to vary its rates to homes
near future. Even the oil giant ExxonMobil, once a leading skeptic of global       that have them in the same
warming and of the need for alternative energy sources, is now spending            way. Thus, home customers can
$300 million to develop biofuels from algae; it also supports taxing CO2 emis-     reduce their bills by running
sions and is reducing its own.                                                     power-hungry appliances dur-
    The U.S. Climate Action Partnership consists of several dozen major            ing off-peak periods, of which
firms in a variety of fields that find global warming no idle threat and intend    the utility informs them. This
to work together to help combat it. They have called for “strong” federal          benefits the utility industry as
                                                                                   well because, by evening out
action. But plenty of business interests, including the 3-million-member U.S.
                                                                                   demand, less reserve capacity
Chamber of Commerce (which has an annual war chest of $200 million),
                                                                                   is needed. The meters also let
are fighting against all global warming legislation. A number of Chamber           customers avoid waste whose
members have left it over this issue, including Apple and the utilities Pacific    amount they may not have been
Gas and Electric, Exelon, and PNM Resources (“we see climate change as the         aware of, and allow utilities to
most pressing environmental and economic issue of our time”).                      detect service interruptions as
                                                                                   they occur. In 2009, the U.S.
                                                                                   Energy Department provided
4.14 What Governments Must Do                                                      $3.4 billion to help pay for 18
Their Role Is Crucial                                                              million smart meters, with util-
                                                                                   ities putting in $4.7 billion of
Governments everywhere have become aware of the gravity of the energy              their own.
problem and of the need for them to respond, though few are acting with
the urgency required. An obvious step is to impose the highest feasible effi-
ciency standards for appliances, buildings, and vehicles. As long ago as 1975,
California began to introduce regulations that required greater efficiencies in
energy use, with the result that average energy consumption per person there
has changed little since then although in the rest of the United States it has
increased by 50 percent. California consumers are saving $6 billion per year
in energy costs.
     A key element in California’s strategy was to decouple utility profits from
electricity sales—the profits of utilities there depend on the success of their
energy efficiency programs. Elsewhere, because they profit from waste,
utilities have no interest in energy efficiency. California pioneered efficiency
standards for appliances, which helped the entire country because it is not
economical for manufacturers to have separate product lines for different
states. As an example of the result, the average energy used by refrigerators
in the United States declined by 75 percent even as their sizes increased and
their prices fell. A more recent measure worth being copied requires that, by
2020, all new residential buildings consume zero net energy; for commercial
buildings, the deadline is 2030.
     Another step is to use both incentives and regulations to promote solar,
wind, geothermal, cellulosic ethanol, and other renewable clean energy
sources while avoiding such blind alleys as corn ethanol. Nuclear energy
should similarly be encouraged to expand. Above all, every effort should be
made to phase out fossil fuels, especially coal. Because coal will nevertheless
134   4-42   Chapter 4   Energy and the Future


             continue to be burned in quantity for a long time to come, developing ways
             to capture and bury the resulting CO2 must be accelerated. Subsidies that
             encourage the production and use of fossil fuels, still common in the world
             (the United States spends over $10 billion per year on them), cannot con-
             tinue. The International Energy Agency calculates that, if such subsidies
             were scrapped, this step alone would eventually reduce overall greenhouse
             gas emissions by around 10 percent.
                 A different facet of the energy problem is deforestation, which as we
             saw in Fig. 4-13 gives rise to 18 percent of worldwide greenhouse gas emis-
             sions. A U.N. program called REDD—for Reducing Emissions from Defor-
             estation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries—is under way to
             do what its name suggests by having rich countries subsidize poor ones to
             invest in low-emission paths to development instead of plundering their
             forests.
                 The most cost-effective means of helping to curb global warming is to
             provide family planning aid to people who want it but have little or no access
             for the reasons given in Sec. 4.1. According to one careful study, each dollar
             spent on family planning results in nearly five times the reduction in green-
             house gas emissions as the same dollar spent on technological fixes such
             as those based on solar and wind energies. Although religious leaders who
             oppose family planning have managed to keep the subject taboo in public
             discussions, population growth is becoming more and more recognized as a
             significant factor in global warming. The U.N. Population Fund, for instance,
             has made clear the link, and in a letter urging the U.S. administration to
             increase funding for family planning, a group of members of Congress stated
             that it “should be part of larger strategies for climate change mitigation and
             adaptation.”

             Carbon Tax     Subsidizing alternative energy sources to shrink the gaps
             between their costs and those of fossil fuels and setting mandatory targets
             for their use in place of fossil sources both have roles to play in reducing
             CO2 emissions. However, most economists feel that a more direct approach
             is also needed.
                  The simplest, fairest, most transparent, and most effective such approach
             is to levy a tax—usually called a carbon tax for short—on the amount of
             CO2 emitted in the production and use of a fossil fuel. In this way polluters
             would pay for the harm they do to the environment, which would encour-
             age them to reduce their emissions. A carbon tax would be easy to admin-
             ister and hard to avoid, and its rate could be adjusted from time to time to
             achieve the desired total CO2 reduction. Several countries already have car-
             bon taxes, and others are considering them. Sweden has had a carbon tax
             since 1991, which has lowered CO2 emissions by 20 percent while allowing
             its economy to grow by 44 percent. Because in the United States voting for
             a new tax is regarded as political suicide, a carbon tax stands little chance
             of being enacted despite its obvious advantages. Perhaps the chance would
             be greater if the tax money were distributed among the country’s citizens, as
             has been proposed.

             Cap-and-Trade    Another approach is to use a cap-and-trade system in
             which a regionwide total (the cap) is set for annual CO2 emissions. The gov-
             ernment then auctions or gives away permits to emit CO2 that add up to the
             overall ceiling. Companies that do not use their entire quotas can sell the
             leftover permits to companies whose emissions exceed their quotas. A proper
             choice of the cap would make the price of traded permits high enough to
             serve as an incentive to big emitters such as power companies to invest in
             greater efficiency, carbon capture and storage, and clean technologies. If the
             permits are auctioned, the government receives money that can be used to
Strategies for the Future                                                                              4-43       135


help ease the transition to clean alternative energy. If permits are free, there   Carbon Offsets
is the problem of distributing them fairly. This can easily result in a large
cap being set so that all emitters are satisfied with their quotas—and emis-       A carbon offset is a credit to
sions are reduced by little or nothing. Either way the price of traded permits,    emit CO2 that a company in a
unlike a tax, would vary with general economic conditions and other unpre-         cap-and-trade system receives
dictable factors, which would add a new element of uncertainty for busi-           in exchange for financing an
nesses planning future investments.                                                emission-reduction project in a
     The European Union’s Emission Trading System (ETS), the world’s larg-         poor country. For example, the
est, began operating in 2005 and illustrates the problems that can arise in        CO2 emissions saved by build-
such a scheme. Free permits were issued, but many polluting industries             ing a hydroelectric installation
                                                                                   in, say, India could be sold as
were exempted and the caps were set so high that companies in the system
                                                                                   offsets to coal-burning compa-
received generous quotas. As a result, CO2 emissions rose, not fell, in the
                                                                                   nies elsewhere to allow them to
ETS and electric utilities found it cheaper to continue to fuel their furnaces     emit a corresponding amount
with coal than to switch to less-polluting natural gas. Even though their          of CO2. In principle, such pro-
permits were free and they did not have to buy others, utilities in various        jects would not go ahead with-
countries raised their charges to consumers, for which they blamed the ETS.        out the offset money, but in
The German utility RWE, the largest CO2 emitter in Europe, collected about         practice many have turned out
$6.5 billion in this way before being forced to stop. The ETS was so poorly        to already exist (a third in the
designed and run that in one 18-month period outright fraud cost it                case of hydroelectric ones) or
$7.4 billion before being discovered.                                              would be developed in any case.
     Starting in 2013, ETS permits will be auctioned, not free, in the hope of     Even worse, carbon offsets have
                                                                                   been sold for planting trees
finally making fossil-fuel use sufficiently expensive to encourage investments
                                                                                   while existing forests in the
in reducing CO2 emissions. Meeting a 2020 target of a 20 percent reduction
                                                                                   same country are cut down, so
might increase elecricity bills by 10–15 percent, considered a fair price for      the result is again a net increase
the expected benefits. However, the new system, like the old, has important        in emissions as the buyer gets
loopholes. One of them is that some member countries, for instance Poland          cheap credits to pour CO2 into
and Germany, both heavy coal users, were given exemptions for much of              the atmosphere. Although car-
their emissions. Another is that carbon offsets (see sidebar) also will con-       bon offset programs are widely
tinue to be allowed.                                                               considered to be failures, the
                                                                                   companies that profit from
                                                                                   them have managed to keep
Copenhagen There is general agreement that global temperatures should              them in cap-and-trade systems.
not increase by more than 2°C if environmental catastrophe is to be avoided.
To keep temperatures below this figure, the world’s greenhouse gas emis-
sions have to be rolled back to perhaps half their 1990 level. The tools that
governments have for the purpose are the direct regulation of fossil-fuel use,
subsidies for clean energy sources, carbon taxes, and cap-and-trade systems.
Each country or region must choose for itself which one or more of these
tools fit its situation best.
     The big question is how much each country should contribute to the
overall reduction needed, whose total cost is estimated at between $500
billion and $1 trillion annually. This seems like a lot, but it is only around
1 percent of world economic output. In December 2009, a two-week confer-
ence of 193 countries in Copenhagen considered the matter but could not
agree on how the total cost should be apportioned among the various coun-
tries. The conference concluded with a statement of broad general princi-
ples that should govern such an apportionment, but no details or numbers.
However, one of the principles, initially opposed by China and other devel-
oping countries, did represent a real step forward: any firm promises of
emission cuts would eventually be subject to international monitoring and
reporting.
     On one side of the basic division in Copenhagen were the developed
countries, which as a group are rich and responsible for most of the CO2
emissions, past and present, that have led to global warming. On the other
side were the developing countries, which as a group contain 85 percent of
the world’s population, are poor, and have CO2 emissions well below those
of the developed countries (see Fig. 4-9). The developing countries are in the
136     4-44                              Chapter 4   Energy and the Future



  Plan B

  What if cuts in CO2 emissions made in the future turn out           than usual water droplets. The result would be clouds
  to be too little and too late? Is there a Plan B in that event,     that would reflect more sunlight back into space than
  which is all too possible? In fact, a number of schemes             normal clouds.
  have been suggested to tackle a hyperactive greenhouse                   Unfortunately there is much doubt about how prac-
  effect. They fall into two categories. The first involves           tical such geoengineering projects would be. Thus calcu-
  removing excess CO2 from the atmosphere, for exam-                  lations show that no less than 1.4 billion tons of seawater
  ple by fertilizing areas of the oceans with iron sulfate to         would have to be sprayed aloft each year to stop global
  stimulate algae (for whom iron is a crucial nutrient often          warming, and a trial of the algae method gave disap-
  in short supply) to flourish and absorb atmospheric CO2.            pointing results: predators lost no time in gobbling up
  When the algae die, their remains, it is assumed, would             the algae. There is also the serious matter of the side
  sink to the sea floor taking the carbon with them.                  effects of such manipulations of the global environment,
       The other Plan B category involves reducing the                some foreseeable and others that may come as unwel-
  amount of sunlight that reaches the earth’s surface. One            come surprises. While Plan B studies should certainly
  suggestion for this is to spray seawater into the atmo-             continue, there seems to be no sure substitute in sight
  sphere over the oceans. Evaporation would leave tiny                for drastically reducing worldwide CO2 emissions while
  salt particles to act as condensation nuclei for smaller            there is still time.




                                          process of raising their standards of living, today relatively low. This means
                                          that, as the economies of developing countries grow, so will the amount of
                                          energy they use. Since fossil fuels (especially coal) are the cheapest energy
                                          sources, their CO2 emissions will also grow.
                                               The position in Copenhagen of the developing countries started with a
                                          refusal to do anything that would impede their rising prosperity. If the devel-
                                          oped countries, already extremely prosperous, want them to curb their CO2
                                          emissions, the developed countries should pay for substituting clean energy
                                          for fossil-fuel energy. The developed countries themselves, as the chief emit-
                                          ters of CO2, should also take most or all of the burden of decreasing its
                                          worldwide total. Furthermore, since the developed countries are responsible
                                          for most of the CO2 poured into the atmosphere since the start of the Indus-
                                          trial Revolution, these countries should help the others adapt to changing
                                          climates.
                                               It was not surprising that the developed countries were unhappy with
                                          these demands. They were especially disheartened when China and India,
                                          with over a third of the world’s population and modernizing fast, would not
                                          accept any limits on their future CO2 emissions. (By 2030, China’s economy
                                          will have passed that of the United States with India, now eleventh, in third
                                          place.) In view of this, the United States would not give a specific target for
                                          its own efforts. Since China and the United States, each with 20 percent of
                                          the total (Fig.  4-10), are the largest producers of CO2, no other countries
                                          would make a firm commitment either. In fact, much of the world is already
                                          investing in clean energy projects and expects to continue doing so, but the
                                          existing efforts, as mentioned in Sec. 4.4, are far from what is needed to keep
                                          temperature rises below 2°C.
                                               Although the Copenhagen conference was a disappointment, so
                                          important is its objective of worldwide binding agreements to curb global
                                          warming that efforts to this end are sure to continue. Unfortunately,
                                          there is no time to spare: the later effective action comes, the more it
                                          will cost, both in money and in hardships for affected parts of the world.
                                          John Holdren, the White House science advisor, sums up the situation
                                          in this way: “We’re driving in a car with bad brakes in a fog and heading
                                          for a cliff. We know for sure that the cliff is out there. We just don’t know
                                          exactly where it is. Prudence would suggest that we should start putting
                                          on the brakes.”
Multiple Choice                                                                                               4-45       137


   Important Terms and Ideas
The fossil fuels coal, oil, and natural gas were formed              In nuclear fusion, two small nuclei unite to form
by the partial decay of the remains of plants and marine        a larger one, a process that also gives off considerable
organisms that lived millions of years ago.                     energy. The sun and stars obtain their energy from nuclear
     Methane, the main constituent of natural gas, is a com-    fusion, but fusion technology for power plants is still under
pound of carbon and hydrogen with the chemical formula CH4.     development.
     The greenhouse effect refers to the process by which            Geothermal energy comes from the heat of the earth’s
a greenhouse is heated: sunlight can enter through its win-     interior.
dows, but the infrared radiation the warm interior gives off         A photovoltaic cell, also called a solar cell, converts
is absorbed by glass, so the incoming energy is trapped. The    the energy in sunlight directly to electric energy.
earth’s atmosphere is heated in a similar way by absorbing           In a concentrated solar power (CSP) installation,
infrared radiation from the warm earth. Greenhouse gases        solar energy is first converted into heat and then into elec-
are gases that absorb infrared radiation; the chief ones in     tric energy.
the atmosphere are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, nitrous            In a fuel cell, electric current is produced by means of
oxide (N2O), and a group of gases used in refrigeration         chemical reactions.
called CFCs and HCFCs.                                               Biofuels made from plant matter can supplement or
     Carbon capture and storage (CCS) involves pumping          replace gasoline and diesel fuel.
CO2 emitted by power plants or other sources into under-             In a cap-and-trade system for controlling CO2 emis-
ground reservoirs.                                              sions, an overall cap on them is set for a region and compa-
     In nuclear fission, a large atomic nucleus (notably a      nies there are given or buy at auction permits to emit CO2
nucleus of one kind of uranium atom) splits into smaller        whose total equals the cap. Companies that do not use their
ones, a process that gives off considerable energy. A nuclear   full quotas can sell the leftover permits to companies that
reactor produces energy from nuclear fissions that occur at     exceed their quotas.
a controlled rate.



   Multiple Choice
 1. The number of people in the world may reach a                7. Energy not ultimately derived from solar radiation is
    maximum in 2050 of about                                        found in
     a. 1 billion           c. 6.7 billion                           a. tides                c. falling water
     b. 2.5 billion         d. 9.2 billion                           b. waves                d. wind
 2. Arrange these sources in the order of the energy they        8. If present trends continue, an optimistic average
    supply to the world today, starting with the source of          global temperature increase by 2100 might
    the most energy.                                                be about
     a. coal                c. renewable                             a. 1°C                  c. 4°C
     b. oil                 d. nuclear                               b. 2°C                  d. 10°C
 3. Of the following, the energy source likely to be used up     9. The source that produces the most carbon dioxide per
    first is                                                        joule of energy liberated is
     a. coal                c. natural gas                           a. coal                 c. natural gas
     b. oil                 d. nuclear                               b. oil                  d. nuclear
 4. Of the following, the energy source likely to last the      10. The average amount of CO2 emitted each year per
    longest is                                                      person in the United States is about
     a. coal                c. natural gas                           a. 1 ton                c. 5 tons
     b. oil                 d. nuclear                               b. 2 tons               d. 20 tons
 5. Energy use per person in the United States                  11. The radiation from an object at room temperature is
    today is                                                        mainly in the form of
     a. about the same as the world average                          a. infrared light
     b. about 10 percent more than the world average                 b. visible light
     c. about one and a half times the world average                 c. ultraviolet light
     d. about four times the world average                           d. any of the above, depending on its color
 6. World energy use in 2030 is expected to be                  12. The earth’s atmosphere is primarily heated by
     a. less than today                                              a. direct sunlight
     b. about the same as today                                      b. sunlight reflected by the earth’s surface
     c. about one and a half times what it is today                  c. infrared light radiated by the earth’s surface
     d. about four times what it is today                            d. carbon dioxide emissions
138      4-46                            Chapter 4   Energy and the Future


13. A gas that does not contribute to global warming is              27. The worst emitters of mercury, which damages the
    a. methane              c. nitrous oxide                             nervous system, are power plants that use
    b. nitrogen            d. carbon dioxide                             a. coal                c. natural gas
14. Arrange these countries in increasing order of their                 b. oil                 d. nuclear energy
    CO2 emissions per person.                                        28. Syngas is made from
    a. China               c. United Kingdom                             a. coal                 c. natural gas
    b. United States       d. India                                      b. oil                  d. carbon dioxide
15. The country or countries each responsible for about              29. Of the following countries, the one that obtains the
    one-fifth of the total of the world’s CO2 emissions is (are)         largest proportion of its electricity from nuclear
    a. China                   c. Russia                                 energy is
    b. India                   d. United States                           a. France               c. Japan
16. Of the following fuels, the one that gives off the most               b. China                d. United States
    heat per gram when burned is                                     30. The proportion of electricity generated in the United
    a. hydrogen              c. gasoline                                 States that comes from nuclear energy is roughly
    b. methane               d. coal                                     a. 1 percent            c. 20 percent
17. Of the following fuels, the one that gives off the least             b. 5 percent           d. 50 percent
    heat per gram when burned is                                     31. In the relatively near future, the technology most able
    a. hydrogen              c. gasoline                                 to replace fossil fuels on a large scale is
    b. methane               d. coal                                      a. nuclear               c. solar
18. Which of the following is not a fossil fuel?                          b. wind                 d. biofuels
    a. hydrogen            c. oil                                    32. Of the following problems associated with various
    b. natural gas         d. coal                                       energy sources, the least significant for nuclear
19. The proportion of world energy supplied by sources                   fission is
    other than fossil fuels is about                                      a. waste disposal
    a. 15 percent             c. 50 percent                               b. fuel reserves
    b. 25 percent            d. 85 percent                                c. diversion to weapons manufacture
20. The proportion of oil used by the United States that is              d. construction expense
    imported is about                                                33. Bright sunlight might deliver energy to an area of
     a. 1/10                c. 1/2                                       1 square meter at a rate of
     b. 1/5                d. 2/3                                        a. 1 W                  c. 100 W
21. Most oil today is used for                                           b. 10 W                 d. 1000 W
    a. transportation       c. electricity                           34. The output of which of the following renewable energy
    b. heating              d. lubrication                               sources varies least?
22. In the United States, coal is chiefly used                            a. wind               c. geothermal
     a. for heating                                                      b. waves               d. solar
    b. to generate electricity                                       35. Of the following renewable energy sources, the one
     c. to make syngas                                                   that currently produces more of the world’s electricity
    d. to manufacture plastics                                           than any of the others is
23. Natural gas consists largely of                                       a. wind                c. geothermal
    a. hydrogen             c. nitrogen                                   b. waves               d. solar
    b. oxygen               d. methane                               36. Of the following technologies, the one that may
24. The least polluting of the following fuels is                        eventually become the chief energy source in the
    a. coal                  c. diesel fuel                              world involves the use of
    b. gasoline              d. natural gas                              a. nuclear fission      c. fuel cells
25. Which of these statements about carbon capture and                   b. nuclear fusion      d. biofuels
    storage (CCS) is true?                                           37. Of the following technologies, the one farthest from
     a. CCS has never been tried, even on a small scale.                 being a commercial energy source in the near future
    b. Earthquakes are a potential hazard for CCS.                       involves the use of
     c. CCS is relatively cheap.                                          a. nuclear fission    c. fuel cells
    d. There are few underground rock formations                          b. nuclear fusion     d. biofuels
        suitable for CCS.                                            38. Biofuels based on which of the following seem to have
26. The impurity in coal that contributes to acid rain is                the most promise for the future?
    a. nitrogen            c. carbon                                      a. corn               c. soybeans
    b. sulfur              d. chlorine                                    b. cellulose          d. algae
Exercises                                                                                                     4-47         139

39. Of the following, the strategy for coping with future       40. The least helpful government approach to controlling
    energy shortages with the most in its favor is to               greenhouse gas emissions is
    a. burn more coal                                               a. a carbon tax
    b. produce more oil from tar sands                              b. a cap-and-trade system
     c. divert more agricultural land to making                      c. to require increasing use of clean
        biofuels                                                        technologies
    d. increase energy efficiency and energy                        d. to subsidize biofuels
        conservation




   Exercises
 4.1   Population and Prosperity                                       something at ordinary temperatures, such as the
    1. What are the three main factors that will require               earth’s surface?
       changes in today’s patterns of energy production           13. What is the nature of the greenhouse effect in the
       and consumption?                                               earth’s atmosphere?
 4.2   Energy Consumption                                         14. List the chief greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
    2. Even if the developed countries stabilize or reduce            What property do they share?
       their energy consumption in years to come, world-          15. About half the CO2 from burning fossil fuels enters
       wide energy consumption will increase. What are                the atmosphere. What becomes of the rest?
       the two main reasons for this?                             16. (a) Why is deforestation so important in global
    3. The average rate of energy consumption per person in           warming? (b) In round numbers, which proportion
       the United States is about how many times the average          of worldwide greenhouse gas emissions is due to
       in China: twice, three times, four times, six times?           deforestation: 5 percent, 10 percent, 20 percent,
                                                                      40 percent?
    4. List the fossil fuels in the order in which they will
       probably be used up.                                       17. List the fossil fuels in the order in which they
                                                                      contribute to world CO2 emissions.
    5. Explain how sunlight is responsible for these
       energy sources: food, wood, water power, wind             4.5   Liquid Fuels
       power, fossil fuels.                                       18. What fuel liberates the most energy per gram when
    6. What energy sources cannot be traced to sunlight               it burns? What is produced when it burns?
       falling on the earth?                                      19. Most of the world’s oil is used as a fuel for what
 4.3   Global Warming                                                 purpose?
    7. Approximately what proportion of the                       20. How do the oil reserves in tar sands compare with
       world’s population lives on or near coasts                     the reserves of ordinary crude oil? What are some
       and so may be under future threat from rising                  of the disadvantages of tar sand oil?
       sea level?                                                 21. What is regenerative braking and what kinds of
    8. (a) Give two reasons why global warming is                     cars can make use of it? What is the advantage of
       causing sea level to rise. (b) What is the minimum             regenerative braking?
       sea-level rise expected by 2100: 10 cm, 50 cm, 1 m,        22. What are some of the reasons why the average fuel
       10 m?                                                          efficiency of cars in the United States is the lowest
    9. Once the polar ice sheets have melted beyond a                 in the world?
       certain amount, melting will continue even if CO2         4.6   Natural Gas
       emissions stop rising. Why?                                23. The amount of CO2 emitted per kilowatt-hour of
   10. The oceans as well as the atmosphere are growing               electricity by a gas-fired power plant is about half
       warmer. What does this imply for tropical storms               that emitted by a coal-fired plant. What do you
       such as hurricanes?                                            think is the reason that coal-fired plants are much
                                                                      more common?
   11. When was the last time world temperatures were as
       high as they are likely to be in 2100 if current rates     24. Why is natural gas rarely used as a vehicle fuel?
       of CO2 emission continue: hundreds of years ago,           25. What is shale gas? Methane clathrate? Where are
       thousands of years ago, millions of years ago?                 they found and why is great interest being shown in
 4.4   Carbon Dioxide and the Greenhouse Effect                       them?
   12. Every body of matter radiates light. What is              4.7   Coal
       characteristic of light radiated by something              26. What are the chief advantages of coal as a fuel? The
       very hot, such as the sun? Of light radiated by                chief disadvantage?
140     4-48                          Chapter 4   Energy and the Future


  27. Coal is responsible for approximately which                    41. What does a photovoltaic cell do? What is another
      proportion of the electricity generated in the United              name for it?
      States: one-quarter, one-half, three-quarters?                 42. What advantages do photovoltaic cells have for
  28. Coal smoke contains sulfur and mercury. Why are                    installation in remote regions?
      they harmful?                                                  43. Instead of a new 500-MW coal-fired power plant,
  29. Why do you think that, per joule of energy liberated               a wind farm of turbines rated at 2 MW maximum
      when they are burned, coal produces more carbon                    output each is to be installed. If the average turbine
      dioxide than the other fossil fuels?                               output is 40 percent of the maximum, how many
  30. (a) List the desirable aspects of coal gasification,               turbines are needed?
      the process in which coal is turned into a mixture             44. Explain how tide and wave energies can be captured.
      of gases called syngas. (b) Is there any way to                45. (a) What major advantage does geothermal energy
      prevent the CO2 emitted when coal is burned from                   have over solar, wind, tidal, and wave energies?
      entering the atmosphere? If so, why is it not widely               (b) What is its chief disadvantage?
      used?                                                          46. List four practical ways to store energy from
 4.8   A Nuclear World?                                                  noncontinuous energy sources.
  31. What is the basic difference between nuclear                  4.11 Hydrogen and Fuel Cells
      fission and nuclear fusion? In what way are they
                                                                     47. When hydrogen combines with oxygen, a great
      similar?
                                                                         deal of energy is liberated with only water as the
  32. What role does uranium play in nuclear energy                      product. What are the two main factors that hold
      production? What is the uranium supply situation?                  back wider use of hydrogen as a fuel?
  33. How does a nuclear power plant produce                         48. What are the advantages and disadvantages of
      electricity?                                                       hydrogen fuel cells?
  34. Explain why no nuclear power plants were planned              4.12 Biofuels
      in the United States between 1979 and now but are
                                                                     49. (a) Why is corn not regarded as an ideal choice for
      currently being considered for construction.
                                                                         producing ethanol? (b) Cellulose is apparently a
  35. List the potential advantages of fusion energy.                    better choice. Why is it not in wide use?
  36. What stands in the way of the immediate use of                 50. Why are algae so interesting as a way of producing
      nuclear fusion as a commercial energy source?                      biodiesel fuel?
  37. Is there anywhere outside of laboratories where               4.13 Conservation
      fusion energy is produced today?
                                                                     51. A long-term goal for energy efficiency envisions an
 4.9 Clean Energy I                                                      average use of 65 GJ per person per year. To what
 4.10 Clean Energy II                                                    continuous power in kilowatts does this correspond?
  38. Give examples of clean sources that can supply                4.14 What Governments Must Do
      energy continuously and examples of others                     52. A major obstacle to a worldwide agreement on
      whose output varies with time of day and weather                   reducing greenhouse gas emissions is that the
      conditions.                                                        developing countries want the developed ones to do
  39. Of the various clean energy sources, which provides                what three things?
      the most energy worldwide today?                               53. Explain the cap-and-trade system for controlling
  40. Give several reasons why fossil-fuel energy is                     CO2 emissions. Is there an alternative means of
      cheaper than energy from most renewable sources.                   control?

				
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