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The Louisville Migration Report by xiuliliaofz

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									Human Linkages
The Louisville Migration Report
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Michael Price and Paul Coomes
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Acknowledgements
This research was produced by the University of Louisville and made
possible by a grant from the US Department of Labor, administered by
KentuckianaWorks, a member of America’s Workforce Network.
Michael Price is a senior researcher and the Kentucky State
Demographer at the Urban Studies Institute. Paul Coomes is a
professor of economics and the National City Research Fellow. Martye
Scobee and Tom Sawyer are USI research associates. The authors give
special thanks to Michael Gritton, Executive Director of
KentuckianaWorks for his support and input to this report.
Executive Summary                                                                    population is involved in the annual relocation of households
                                                                                     between markets in the US.



A        bout fourteen thousand babies were born in the Louisville                   Twenty-five percent of out-migrants from the Louisville metro area
         metro area last year, and around ten thousand residents died.               are to counties just outside the metro area, further evidence that
         Thus, the population grew by four thousand due to natural                   the larger 25-county Economic Area is an important geography to
increase. However, Louisville’s population actually grew by about seven              study when considering economic and demographic patterns in the
thousand persons. The difference between total population growth and                 metropolitan area.
natural increase is net migration, or about three thousand persons last
                                                                                     Migrants from Jefferson County to surrounding counties were
year. Of course, the net migration figure is itself the difference between
                                                                                     more likely to be married, somewhat older, and have larger
the number of people who moved in and the number who moved out
                                                                                     households and incomes than the counter-stream.
of the area. Typically, over twenty-five thousand people move out and
more than twenty-five thousand people move into the Louisville area                  Louisville’s strongest gross migration ties are with Lexington,
each year The difference between the annual in-flow and out-flow is                  Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Chicago, Atlanta, and Nashville. On net,
the component of Louisville’s population growth that is most sensitive               Louisville gains residents from Lexington and Chicago, and loses
to job opportunities and amenities in Louisville relative to other cities.           residents to Indianapolis, Atlanta, and Nashville.
And the characteristics of these movers - age, household composition,
occupation, education level, and even nationality – is the driving force              The average household incomes of those leaving Louisville have
behind changes in the area’s human capital. In this report, we provide a              generally been greater than those moving to Louisville. We have
first-ever investigation of migration patterns and characteristics for                ten years of data on the (IRS adjusted gross) income of movers.
Louisville.                                                                           Over the period, the total income of out-migrants was several
                                                                                      hundred million dollars greater than the total income of in-
Among the most important and interesting findings are:                                migrants. Florida cities are a prime beneficiary, with the net loss to
                                                                                      Naples alone worth $45 million over the period.
  The Louisville metro area added about 93,000 residents between
  1990 and 2003. Net migration was responsible for 36,000 of these               The analysis that follows is primarily based on data from two sources.
  new residents. All metro counties except Jefferson experienced                 Migration flow data were obtained from special tabulations of Internal
  population gain due to migration. Cumulative net migration for                 Revenue Service (IRS) records, available annually since 1990. These
  Jefferson County amounted to a loss of 4,400 person.                           data, based on changing county of residence between successive IRS
                                                                                 filings, provide information on the number of filers, exemptions, and
    More people have moved into the Louisville metro than have                   total income of movers. We also incorporated migration information
    moved out in every year since 1990. For the entire study period,             from the 2000 Census, where a snapshot is taken on the county of
    average annual net migration rate was 2.8 per 1,000 persons, about           residence of each respondent as compared to the county of residence
    the same rate as adding one household per year to a neighborhood             five years before. These data have rich detail on socioeconomic
    of 400 households. In terms of both people moving in and people              characteristics of movers. Metro areas are defined herein as the 2000
    moving out, the equivalent of six percent of the Louisville metro            Metropolitan Statistical Areas.




                                                                             1
2
M         igration links communities, whether they are neighborhoods
          or entire metro areas, through an on-going physical exchange
          of people. As Ravenstein1 observed over a century ago, each
main current of migration produces a compensating counter-current.
Over time, these exchanges establish relationships, human linkages,
                                                                                  calculations provide no information about Louisville’s linkages with
                                                                                  other labor markets or the human capital characteristics of migrants
                                                                                  that help transform our workforce and community.

                                                                                  This report provides a much more detailed analysis of recent migration
between communities. In this report, we explore the linkages that                 patterns in the Louisville metro area. Using multiple data sources, we
migration has forged for the Louisville metro area.                               look beyond the migration residuals, to the specific flows or streams of
                                                                                  migration linking the Louisville metro area with other communities
Migration is a complex component of population change, fluctuating                near and far. This analysis of Louisville migration includes:
over time, to and from a variety of origins and destinations, involving a
selective population of migrants. Altering the size and geographic                    •   International and domestic migration flows,
distribution of the population, migration also affects the demographic                •   Flows of people and income linking Louisville with metro
make-up of the population because migrant characteristics vary from                       areas throughout the US,
those of non-migrants.                                                                •   Migration between the counties of the metro area, especially
                                                                                          flows between Jefferson and the peripheral counties,
Migration has been the central theme of several public issues in
                                                                                      •   The human capital and demographic characteristics migrants
Louisville. From brain drain to talent attraction, exurban development
                                                                                          impacting the make-up of the Louisville population and
to downtown housing, these local issues all focus on migration—the
relocation of people to, away from, or within the Louisville metro area.                  workforce.

Our knowledge of migration at the local level has been very limited.              In this report, metro areas are defined as the 2000 Metropolitan
Analysis of migration for counties and metropolitan areas often has               Statistical Areas (MSA). At that time, the Louisville metro area was
been confined to the residual of population growth after accounting for the       made up of seven counties—Clark, Floyd, Harrison, and Scott in
natural increase of population growth. That is, if one knows the change           Indiana and Bullitt, Jefferson, and Oldham in Kentucky. In 2003, the
in total population between years, as well as the number of births and            metro area was redefined to include thirteen counties, but here we use
deaths during the same period, one can infer that the remainder of the            the older definition since it was the one in effect as of the last decennial
population growth that occurred was due to migration. Although                    census. Given that demographic activity is dominated by the more
accurately measuring the migration component of population growth,                populated central counties, using the pre-2003 definition should have
these residual calculations provide no information about the volume of            little effect on the validity of the trends observed.
in- and out-flows, where migrants have come from or where they have
gone, nor their ages and other demographic characteristics. Residual

1
    Ravenstein, E. G. “The Laws of Migration.” Journal of the Statistical
       Society of London, Volume 48, Number 2 (June, 1885), pp. 167-235.




                                                                              3
Data Sources
                                                                                    2000 Census Migration DVD is another rich source of data on
Annual net migration totals for counties were derived from Census                   county-to-county flows of people. Derived from the Census question
Bureau population estimates and birth and death records from Indiana                about place of residence 5 years before, these data reveal the migration
and Kentucky. Albeit limited as describe earlier, these residuals                   of persons in households and group quarters from 1995-2000, as well
accurately represent the net result of in-migration and out-migration on            as their detailed demographic, social, and economic characteristics.
population growth. Net migration was derived for each year from                     These Census data are more comprehensive in terms of coverage than
1990-91 through 2002-03. Although our analysis focuses on the seven-                the IRS data. All migrants above age 5 years in 2000 are included in the
county metro area, we also provide, in appendices, annual net migration             flow data. However, the data are derived from a retrospective question
total and rates for the 16 counties in the newly designated Louisville-             and fails to measure any interim moves that may have occurred over
Elizabethtown-Scottsburg Combined Statistical Area.                                 the five-year period. Because the Census surveys US residents only,
                                                                                    these migration data do not cover international out-migrants.
Internal Revenue Service County-to-County Migration Flow Data
are a unique source of migration data. The unit of analysis is an annual
migration flow between each pair of US counties. In total, these data                                           Terminology
comprise a national matrix of flow data for a given tax year. The data
are based on federal tax filers who changed their county of residence                  Migration flows refer to the directional movement or relocation of
from the previous tax year. Each flow is described in terms of the total               people either into (in-migration) or away from (out-migration) a
number of tax returns, the total number of exemptions claimed, and                     specific place, in this case the Louisville metro area. These inter-
                                                                                       metro flows can be general, that is to or from anyplace outside the
the total adjusted gross income reported. In previous research2, the                   Louisville metro area, or specific, between Louisville and another
number of ret has been used as a surrogate for the number of                           metro area, for example. Intra-metro flows refer to migration among
households that moved, and exemptions have been used to represent                      the counties in the Louisville metro area. Net migration is the
the number of migrants. The IRS data provide a unique measure of                       numerical difference between the number of in-migrants and out-
“income flow” between places. These data are reliable and consistent                   migrants during a period, and is a fundamental component of
                                                                                       population growth, along with births and deaths. Positive net
in coverage over time, but not comprehensive - not all households and
                                                                                       migration indicates that the Louisville metro area had gained more
individuals file taxes every year. Flow data were analyzed for fourteen                migrants than it lost during a specific period. Negative net migration
years, 1990-01 to 2001-03. Income data were available only for 1992-                   is the result of more migrants leaving than entering. Representing
93 and the following years.                                                            the total volume of the migration exchange, gross migration is the
                                                                                       numerical sum of the in-migration and out-migration flows. Domestic
2                                                                                      migration refers to migration flows within the United States.
    Nakosteen, R., Goodman, M., and Ansel, D. MASS.Migration. The                      International migration refers to flows between locations in the US
       Massachusetts Institute for A New Commonwealth. Boston (December                and abroad or outside the US. Migration rates are defined as the
        2003).                                                                         number of migrants in a period divided by the average number of
    Briem, C. Population Migration in the Pittsburgh Region, Update for 1999-          residents at the beginning and end of the period.
       2000. University of Pittsburg Center for Social and Urban Research.
       Pittsburg (December 2001).




                                                                                4
Migration and Population Growth                                                                                                                   Louisville Metro Area*
                                                                                                                                   Annual Population Growth by Components of Change
Population growth has two basic components of change. On one                               10,000
hand, natural increase is the change in population size resulting from the
                                                                                                         9,000
duel occurrences of live births which add to the population and deaths
                                                                                                         8,000
which reduce population size. On the other hand, net migration alters
population size as the consequence of the people moving both into and                                    7,000

out of the population. In the Louisville metro area, natural increase has                                6,000

fallen from 5,400 in 1990-91 to 3,500 in 2002-03, a decline of 34                                        5,000                                                  Net Migration
percent. Waning natural increase typifies population growth throughout                                   4,000
much of the US heartland where the population is aging, the                                              3,000
occurrences of deaths are rising, and birth rates are generally low. In                                  2,000                                                             Natural Increase
this context, migration flows are more critical to population growth.
                                                                                                         1,000

                                                                                                                     0
The analysis presented here is derived from the annual migration                                                    1990-91   1991-92   1992-93   1993-94   1994-95     1995-96   1996-97   1997-98   1998-99   1999-00   2000-01   2001-02   2002-03
residuals. These data more accurately estimate the migration component                                              *Seven-county 2000 Metropolitan Statistical Area.
of population growth than those based on the IRS flow data. The                                                     Source: Calculations by authors.
residuals were calculated from the Census Bureau population estimates
which have been revised based on the 2000 Census. Birth and death                                                                 Louisville Metro Area Annual Net Migration Rates
records also were updated as previously unrecorded events were added
                                                                                                                   5.0
to state registries—improving the accuracy of historical estimates of
                                                                                                                   4.5
natural increase. The IRS data are a reliable and valuable resource for
analyzing migration flows, but they underestimate international                                                    4.0



                                                                                 Net migration per 1,000 persons
migration as well as the migration of labor force entrants who are often                                           3.5
first time tax filers. An IRS migrant had to file taxes in two consecutive                                         3.0                                                       Average
years.                                                                                                             2.5

                                                                                                                   2.0
In every year from 1990 to 2003, migration made a positive
                                                                                                                   1.5
contribution to population growth in the Louisville metro area. Net
migration over the thirteen-year period accumulated to a modest                                                    1.0

population gain of 36,000 persons. From 1990 to 1995, population                                                   0.5
growth from migration was consistently above the average for the study                                             0.0
period. Annual net migration peaked in 1992-93 with a gain of 4,400                                                 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03




                                                                             5
persons and a net migration rate of 4.5 per 1,000 persons. Migration
produced the slowest growth during the most recent economic                                        Annual Net Migration for Louisville Metro Area Counties
recession, ebbing in 2000-2001 with a mere increase of only 140                2000
                                                                                                                                                                                       Oldham
persons and a rate of 0.1 per 1,000 persons. For the entire study
period, the average annual net migration rate was 2.8 per 1,000 persons,       1500


about the same growth as adding one household per year to a                                                                                                            Bullitt
                                                                               1000
residential neighborhood or subdivision of 400 households.
                                                                                                                                                                                  Clark
                                                                                500
All the metro counties except Jefferson County totaled net in-migration                                                                                                                Harrison

over the entire 13-year study period. Although positive in four of the            0
                                                                                                                                                 Scott

13 years, Jefferson net migration accumulated to a loss of 4,400 persons                 1990-91   1991-92   1992-93       1993-94   1994-95   1995-96   1996-97   1997-98   1998-99    1999-00   2000-01   2001-02   2002-03
                                                                                                                                                                                                              Floyd
and an average annual rate of -0.5 per 1,000 persons. Again using the           -500

standard of the neighborhood of 400 households, annual migration
flows in and out of Jefferson resulted in a population decrease of only        -1000

one person for every two residential areas of this size. Net out-                                                                                                                         Jefferson

migration from Jefferson County was largest during the recent                  -1500

recession. In 2000-01, about 1,800 more persons moved away from the
                                                                               -2000
core county than moved in, basically negating the net in-migration of                  Source: Calculations by authors.
the peripheral counties. Since then, however, net migration in Jefferson
County has increased faster than in any other metro county and was
positive in the last year observed.                                                                           Average Annual Net Migration Rates 1990-2003

Among metro counties, net in-migration was the most consistent and                        Lou isville Metro Area

largest in Oldham and Bullitt. Migration increased the Oldham                                          Clark Co.
population by an average of 1,000 persons per year. Oldham migration
                                                                                                      Floyd Co.
also produced the fastest growth, an average annual rate of 24.5 per
1,000 persons. This population growth was the equivalent of an                                     Harrison Co.

Oldham subdivision of 400 households adding, on average, 10                                            Scott Co.

households annually. The relocation of households increased the                                       Bu llitt Co.
Bullitt population by 11,500 persons over the 13 years, at an average
annual net migration rate of 15.7 per 1,000 persons. Among the four                                Jefferson Co.

Indiana counties, net migration was the largest in Clark (7,300) and                                Oldham Co.

produced the fastest growth in Harrison at an average annual rate of 9.1                    -5.0                     0.0                 5.0                 10.0                15.0                  20.0                 25.0
per 1,000 persons.                                                                                                                     Net migration per 1,000 persons




                                                                           6
Inter-Metro Migration Flows                                                                                                      In-Migration and Out-Migration in the Louisville Metro Area
                                                                                     30,000
Migration involves a much larger dynamic than represented by the
                                                                                                                                              In-migrants      Out-migrants
measurement of net migration. Every migratory household and
individual represents a linkage between communities. The extent of                   28,000
migration’s human exchange is better depicted by the total volume or
size of counter-flowing streams than the numerical difference between
them.
                                                                                     26,000


The IRS data provides the opportunity to look beyond the migration
residuals to the annual flows of in-migration and out-migration. At
first, we look at the overall flows of people and their incomes coming               24,000


in and going away from the metro area year to year. From these
general flows, we then examine increasingly more specific streams of
Louisville migration—international flows, domestic flows by the four                 22,000
                                                                                                                          1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03
major regions, and the critical linkages between Louisville and other                                                Source: Internal Revenue Service..

metro areas throughout the US.

While migration has produced modest population gains for the metro                                                                       Annual Rates of In-Migration and Out-Migration
area, in-migration and out-migration have been quite large, together                                                 36
involving as many as 55,000 persons in a single year. For each person
that net migration added, as many as 20 people were either in-migrants                                                                      In-migrants        Out-migrants
or out-migrants. The equivalent of six percent of the metro area




                                                                              Number of migrants per 1,000 persons
population was involved in the annual relocation and exchange of                                                     34

households. Migration impacts the composition of the Louisville
population much more than its size.
                                                                                                                     32

The volume or size of both in-migration and out-migration flows
generally grew over the last decade, as did the total metro population.
From 1990-91 to 1998-99, gross migration in the metro area rose 12                                                   30
percent, twice the rate of population growth. In-migration topped
28,000 in the later year, a rate of 32 in-migrants per 1,000 persons.
During the recent recession, in-migration has dropped off somewhat,
but remained substantial still above 26,000 persons per year relocating                                              28
                                                                                                                          1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03
                                                                                                    Source: Internal Revenue Service..




                                                                          7
                                                                                                                                     Average Household Sizes* in the Louisville Metro Area
to the Louisville area. People moved away from the metro area in the                                                2.2

largest numbers from 1998-2001, about 27,000 out-migrants per year or                                                                                                             Non-migrants                  In-migrants           Out-migrants
30 out-migrants per 1,000 persons. Gross migration decreased since
2000. In the last year observed (2002-03), the metro area gained 1,400                                              2.1




                                                                                            Persons per household
more migrants than it lost.

The households of both in-migrants and out-migrants were, on                                                        2.0

average, about 5 percent smaller than all households in the metro area.
Over the study period, the size of both migrant and non-migrant
households generally decreased, but the size of in-migrant households                                               1.9

dropped the more precipitately to below 1.9 persons per household in
the last three years, 2000-01 through 2002-03.
                                                                                                                    1.8
                                                                                                                              1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03
As a consequence of declining household size, in-migration of 100                                                     *Total exemptions per federal tax return.
                                                                                                                                   Louisville Metro Area                     Domestic & International Net Migration
                                                                                                                      Source: Internal Revenue Service.
persons added 49 households to the metro area in 1990-91 and 55                                                     2,500

households in 2001-02. Migration increased the number of households                                                                                                                         Total net m igration           Dom estic           International

and the accompanying demand for housing at a faster pace than                                                       2,000

population growth. From 1990-91 through 2000-01, the gross
migration of household rose 16 percent. Not until the last two years                                                1,500


we examined did the total number of migratory households level off.                                                 1,000



International and Domestic Migration                                                                                  500




We now explore the linkages that migration has produced for the metro                                                     0
                                                                                                                                1990-91   1991-92   1992-93   1993-94   1994-95   1995-96   1996-97   1997-98    1998-99   1999-00   2000-01   2001-02   2002-03
area by tracking the origins of in-migrants and the destinations of out-
migrants. We start by looking globally, at least to the extent that the                                              -500


IRS data accurately estimate international migration. The IRS does not                                              -1,000
cover many legal immigrants who are first time tax filers or illegal                                                          Source: Internal Revenue Service.

immigrants who do not file taxes34.

3   We do not have estimates of illegal migrants for metro areas. From a recent
                                                                                      4
      study by the Pew Hispanic Center, Kentucky and Indiana were shown to                For a detailed discussion of legal foreign immigration to Louisville, see
      have a high ratio of undocumented migrants, 30-39 percent. See Passal, J.              Alexei Izyumov, Babu Nahata, and Paul Coomes, “Immigration to the
      S. Estimates of the Size and Characteristics of the Undocumented                       Louisville Economic Area: Trends and Characteristics”, University of
      Population. Pew Hispanic Center, Washington, DC (March 21, 2005).                      Louisville, April 2001, 45 pages.




                                                                                  8
                                                                                     Louisville Metro Area Gross Migration by States 1990-2003

International migration has steadily contributed to the growth and
diversity of the metro area population. The IRS data, admittedly
conservative, estimate that the metro area grew by less than 3,000
persons from international migration over the thirteen years, an average
increase of 226 persons per year. International net migration was, as
expected, positive throughout the study period and fairly steady from
year to year.

In contrast, domestic migration produced an uneven, undulating
pattern of population growth for the metro area. Domestic net
migration ranged from an annual high of 1,800 to a low of -700. More
vulnerable to economic cycles, domestic net migration fluctuated and               No data

drove the swings in population growth rates.                                       Less than 1,000
                                                                                   1,000 to 2,499
                                                                                   2,500 to 7,499
Domestic flows dwarfed international flows in volume. For every one                7,500 or more

of Louisville’s international migrant who either entered the US en route                                  Source: Internal Revenue Service
to the metro area or left for destinations abroad, 61 domestic migrants
were “exchanged” between Louisville and locations throughout the US.                       Louisville Metro Area Net Migration by States 1990-2003
Over the study period, 607,000 domestic migrants either relocated to or
moved away from the metro area, compared to international gross
migration of 10,000 persons.

Much of Louisville’s domestic migration has involved relatively short
moves. One fourth of domestic gross migration for the metro area has
been to and from locations in Kentucky, involving 157,000 migrants
during the study period. Eleven percent, or 68,000 migrants, had
origins or destinations in Indiana. Furthermore, most of this migration
within Kentucky and Indiana was actually out-migration from the
metro area to the next tier of adjacent counties, especially those which
were added to the Metropolitan Statistical Area in 2003. Largest flows
were to Henry, Meade, Nelson, Shelby, Spencer, and Trimble in                  Loss of 500 or more

Kentucky and Washington in Indiana. This dispersal of the metro area           Loss of less than 500
                                                                               No data
population reflects a geographically expanding labor force and the             Gain of less than 500
                                                                               Gain of 500 or more
                                                                                                            Source: Internal Revenue Service




                                                                           9
willingness of workers to commute farther and farther distances.
Within Kentucky, the largest in-migration to the metro area was from                                                                                          Louisville Metro Area Net Migration by Counties 1990-2003
Hardin and Fayette counties.

Stepping back, looking at Louisville’s migration by the four US regions,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Loss of 1,000 or more
we see gross migration between the metro area and Southern locations
totaled 335,000 over the 12 years, double the migration than with any                                                                                                                                                                      Loss of less than 1,000

other region. Most migration was to and from Kentucky, Florida,                                                                                                                                                                            No data

Tennessee, Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina. In a single year,                                                                                                                                                                           Gain of less than 1,000

Louisville exchanged as many migrants with the South as it did with the                                                                                                                                                                    Gain of 1,000 or more

Northeast Region over the whole study period.

Migration to and from the Midwest Region has also been substantial
(183,000 over the 12 years) and was on the rise for much of the study
period. Largest flows were with neighboring Indiana, Ohio, and
Illinois. From 1990-01 through 1998-99, gross migration with the
Midwest grew steadily by 38 percent, before leveling off. In contrast,
gross migration with the other regions, especially the West and
Northeast, was fairly constant from year to year.

Net migration by region reflects the national pattern of population
redistribution. The population center of the US continues to shift to                                                                                                                      Source: Internal Revenue Service
the South and West. In every year observed, more people moved to
                                                                                                                                                                         Louisville Metro Area Net Migration by US Regions
                            Louisville Metro Area Gross Migration by US Regions
                                                                                                                                               2500
    30,000

                                                                                                                                               2000
                                                                       South
    25,000
                                                                                                                                               1500
                                                                                                                                                                                             Midwest
                                                                                                                                               1000
    20,000


                                                             Midwest                                                                            500                                                                            Northeast
    15,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                               West
                                                                                                                                                  0
                                                                                                                                                         1990-91 1991-92    1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96   1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01   2001-02 2002-03
                                                                                                                                                -500
    10,000

                                                                                                                                               -1000

     5,000                                                                                                                                                                                                         South
                                                                              West                                                             -1500

                                                          Northeast
         0                                                                                                                                     -2000
        1990-91   1991-92   1992-93   1993-94   1994-95   1995-96   1996-97   1997-98   1998-99   1999-00   2000-01   2001-02   2002-03                Source: Internal Revenue Service.
         Source: Internal Revenue Service.
                                                                                                                                          10
                                                                                                                                            Louisville Metro Area
                                                                                                                                    Inter-Metro Gross Migration 1990-2003
                                                                                                      !
                                                                                                      (
the metro area from the Northeast and Midwest than moved away the                                 !
                                                                                                  (

metro area to these regions. Domestic migration from the West,                                (
                                                                                              !



particularly California has also contributed to the population growth of                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               (




the metro area.                                                                                                                                                                  !
                                                                                                                                                                                 (                               !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 (

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               ( (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               ! !
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            !
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                                                                                                                                                                                                      !!
                                                                                                                                                                                                      ((                                                                                                               !
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   !
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                                                                                                                                                                                                             !
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  !
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                                                                                                                                                                                                     (
                                                                                                                                                                                                     !                            !
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        !
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                                                                                                                                                                                                  ! ! !!! ! ! !
                                                                                                                                                                                                  ( ( ((( ( ( (
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           !                                   !
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Metro to Metro Migration
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              (


                                                                                                                     (
                                                                                                                     !                                                                                                   !!
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         ((
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  !
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                          !
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                                                                                                                                                                                                    ! ! !
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                                                                                  !
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Compared to regional or state flows, migration flows between metro                                                                                                                                             !
                                                                                                                                                                                                               (
                                                                                                                                                                                             (
                                                                                                                                                                                             !


                                                                                                           !
                                                                                                           (
                                                                                              !
                                                                                              (
                                                                                                                                                                 (
                                                                                                                                                                 !                                 !
                                                                                                                                                                                                   (
areas more accurately represent the network of labor market linkages as                                                                                                                                    !!
                                                                                                                                                                                                           ((
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   !
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                                                                                              !
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      !
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                                                                                              !
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               (           ! !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           ( (
                                                                                                                                                                                                     !
                                                                                                                                                                                                     (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 (

well as other types of migration including the selective migration of                             !
                                                                                                  (                                                           !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  ! !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  ( (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   !
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           (
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                                                                                                                !
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               !
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           !
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  !                                                    !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  (
college students and established streams of retirement migration.
                                                                                                                                               (
                                                                                                                                               !




                                                                                                                !
                                                                                                                (                                                                                                                                           !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            (
                                                                                                                                                             !!
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                                                                                                                                                                                                         (
                                                                                                                                                                                                         !
                                                                                                                               !
                                                                                                                               (
Looking at migration flows between Louisville and the state of Ohio,                                                                                         !
                                                                                                                                                             (                                                            !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          (       !! !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  (( (                     (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               (
for example, masks the net in-migration to Louisville from Cleveland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     (
                                                                                                                                                                                                 (
                                                                                                                                                                                                 !                                                                         (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           !
                                                                                                                                                             !
                                                                                                                                                             (
                                                                                                                                                                         !
                                                                                                                                                                         (                               (
                                                                                                                                                                                                         !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               (   !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   (

and Dayton, the net out-migration to Columbus, and the large but
                                                                                                                                                         !
                                                                                                                                                         (                   (
                                                                                                                                                                             !




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           !!
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           ((
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           !
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   !!!
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   (((
                                                                                                                                                             (
                                                                                                                                                             !                                                                                                                     !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   (




basically offsetting flows to and from Cincinnati.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           (

To display Louisville’s migration with other metro areas, we produced
national maps. Circles or “bubbles” were placed on metro areas                                            Gross Migration between Louisville and Selected Metro Areas
depicting the relative volume of migration with the Louisville metro            2,000
area.
                                                                                                                                                        Lexington

Not surprisingly, Louisville’s strongest gross migration ties were with
Lexington, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Chicago, Atlanta, and Nashville.           1,500
These metros are within 500 miles of Louisville, located on the I-65 or
I-75 corridor, and reflect Louisville’s north-south orientation. These
exchanges resulted in net gains for Louisville from Lexington and                                                                                                                                                        Cincinnati
Chicago, basically offsetting flows between Louisville and Cincinnati,          1,000
and net losses to Indianapolis, Atlanta, and Nashville.                                               Indianapolis
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Chicago
                                                                                                                                                             Nashville

Louisville’s ties to Lexington were especially strong. Flows to and from                                                                                 Atlanta
Lexington in sum have been nearly twice the size of those between                500                                                                                                                                                                      Tampa
Louisville and any other metro area.          Lexington was Louisville’s
                                                                                                                                                                         Washington, DC
primary “net supplier” of persons with bachelors, graduate, and
professional degrees as well as workers employed in professional
                                                                                      0
                                                                                              1990-91      1991-92 1992-93   1993-94 1994-95       1995-96 1996-97 1997-98                       1998-99 1999-00                                          2000-01 2001-02                              2002-03


                                                                                      Source: Internal Revenue Service.



                                                                           11
occupations. While Louisville sent more of its college students to                                                                       Louisville Metro Area
Lexington to go to school than to any other metro area, Louisville                                                               Inter-Metro Migration Flows 1990-2003
received more college students from Lexington than from anyplace                                  !
                                                                                                  (
else.                                                                                         (
                                                                                              !



Yet, in the bigger picture, we see the Louisville metro area intertwined                                                                                                                                                                       !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               (
in a transnational matrix of inter-metro migration. Migration from                                (
                                                                                                  !
                                                                                                                                                                                                       (
                                                                                                                                                                                                       !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        (




Cleveland more than any other metro area resulted in the largest                                                                                                                  !
                                                                                                                                                                                  (
                                                                                                                                                                                              !
                                                                                                                                                                                              (

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    (


                                                                                                                                                                                             !!
                                                                                                                                                                                             ((            !
                                                                                                                                                                                                           (
                                                                                  !
                                                                                  (                                                   !
                                                                                                                                      (

population gains for Louisville over the 13 years we examined.                        !
                                                                                      (                                               !
                                                                                                                                      (
                                                                                                                                          !
                                                                                                                                          (                                                   !
                                                                                                                                                                                              (
                                                                                                                                                                                                       !
                                                                                                                                                                                                       (

Lexington was Louisville’s most consistent and second largest net
                                                                                      !
                                                                                      (




                                                                                                         !
                                                                                                         (
                                                                                                                                                                    !
                                                                                                                                                                    (                                                        !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             (
supplier. The remaining top metro areas with net-in-migration to
                                                                                                                                                                                             !
                                                                                                                                                                                             (                              !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            (
                                                                                                                                                                                                               !
                                                                                                                                                                                                               (        (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        !


Louisville were Chicago, Evansville-Henderson, Los Angeles,
                                                                                                                                                                                                               (
                                                                                                                                                                                                               !

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       (        (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                !


                                                                                                                                                                                                       !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   !




                                                                                                                                                                                                       (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   (



                                                                                                                                                                                                                            !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       (
Owensboro, and New York.                                                                                       !
                                                                                                               (                                                                                           !
                                                                                                                                                                                                           (


                                                                                                                                                                                                           !
                                                                                                                                                                                                           (
                                                                                                                                                              (
                                                                                                                                                              !


Net out-migration from Louisville was largest to Indianapolis and                                                                                                                                 !!
                                                                                                                                                                                                  ((   (
                                                                                                                                                                                                       !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       !!
                                                                                                                                                                                         !
                                                                                                                                                                                         (




                                                                                                                                                          !
                                                                                                                                                          (                                                            ((!
Atlanta. Presumably due to the attraction of superior labor markets,
Louisville lost about 1,000 persons to each of these metro areas over
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   !!
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ((
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    (    (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ! !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ( (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           (
the study period. The overall pattern of net out-migration, however,
revealed a combination of labor market and retirement flows primarily             Net in-migration to Louisville Metro Area

to metro areas in the South. Following Indianapolis and Atlanta,                  Net out-migration from Louisville Metro Area

Louisville largest net migration losses were to Nashville, Tampa,
Charlotte, Sarasota-Bradenton, Fort Myers, and Orlando. All but one
of these metros are located in states that do not levy a tax on individual                                                                     Top 25 Metro Areas
                                                                                              Gross Migration with Louisville:            Net In-Migration to Louisville from:               Net Out-Migration from Louisville to:
income.
                                                                                          1   LEXINGTON                           20,754       CLEVELAND                         1,974       INDIANAPOLIS                                   -977
                                                                                          2   CINCINNATI                          12,001       LEXINGTON                         1,558       ATLANTA                                        -977
                                                                                          3   INDIANAPOLIS                        11,347       CHICAGO                           1,406       NASHVILLE                                      -838
                                                                                          4   CHICAGO                              8,626       EVANSVILLE-HENDERSON                729       TAMPA                                          -828
                                                                                          5   ATLANTA                              8,559       LOS ANGELES                         717       CHARLOTTE                                      -582
                                                                                          6   NASHVILLE                            8,062       OWENSBORO                           580       SARASOTA-BRADENTON                             -465
                                                                                          7   TAMPA                                5,832       NEW YORK                            580       FORT MYERS                                     -355
                                                                                          8   WASHINGTON, DC                       4,440       DAYTON                              528       ORLANDO                                        -320
                                                                                          9   DETROIT                              4,086       HUNTINGTON-ASHLAND                  427       NAPLES                                         -312
                                                                                      10      CLEVELAND                            3,960       NORFOLK                             420       COLUMBUS                                       -271
                                                                                      11      EVANSVILLE-HENDERSON                 3,893       ST. LOUIS                           416       PHOENIX-MESA                                   -270
                                                                                      12      COLUMBUS (OH)                        3,807       NASSAU-SUFFOLK                      403       CINCINNATI                                     -257
                                                                                      13      ST. LOUIS                            3,576       DETROIT                             394       SEATTLE                                        -241
                                                                                      14      DALLAS                               3,574       OAKLAND                             391       W. PALM BCH-BOCA RATON                         -202
                                                                                      15      LOS ANGELES                          3,305       ORANGE COUNTY                       390       RICHMOND                                       -188
                                                                                      16      ORLANDO                              3,162       HOUSTON                             358       PENSACOLA                                      -184
                                                                                      17      HOUSTON                              3,102       GARY                                346       OCALA                                          -178
                                                                                      18      OWENSBORO                            2,878       SAN DIEGO                           313       DENVER                                         -157
                                                                                      19      DAYTON                               2,656       CLARKSVILLE-HOPKINSVILLE            298       LAS VEGAS                                      -148
                                                                                      20      FT LAUDRDALE                         2,524       TOLEDO                              272       DAYTONA BEACH                                  -136
                                                                                      21      CLARKSVILLE-HOPKINSVILLE 2,484                   CHARLESTON (WV)                     271       AUSTIN                                         -130
                                                                                      22      PHOENIX                              2,464       BUFFALO                             255       LAKELAND-WINTER HAVEN                          -127
                                                                                      23      JACKSONVILLE                         2,427       BOSTON                              235       BOULDER                                        -115
                                                                                      24      MEMPHIS                              2,426       NEW HAVEN                           232       MACON                                          -108
                                                                                      25      CHARLOTTE                            2,288       NEW ORLEANS                         226       MELBOURNE (FL)                                 -102
                                                                                              Source: Internal Revenue Servies Migration Flow Data, 1990-2002




                                                                             12
Flows of Income
                                                                                                             Average Household Incomes in the Louisville Metro Area
                                                                                        $50,000
For each migration flow, the IRS data include the total adjusted gross
                                                                                                      All households             In-migrants      Out-migrants
income5 of the migrant tax returns beginning in 1992-93. Income is a
characteristic of migrants. The term income flow describes the total                    $45,000


income of migrants who comprise a specific migration flow either to or
from the Louisville metro area. Average household incomes were                          $40,000


derived by dividing this measure of total income by the number of tax
returns. Per capita incomes were obtained using the total number of                     $35,000

person exemptions as the denominator.
                                                                                        $30,000

The incomes of migrants are expected to vary from those of the general
population. We know that migrants and non-migrants typically possess                    $25,000

different human capital characteristics which affect the respective
earnings. Another factor affecting income is household size. Migrants                   $20,000

typically have smaller households and thus are likely to have fewer wage                          1992-93      1993-94    1994-95
                                                                                             Source: Internal Revenue Service.
                                                                                                                                     1995-96    1996-97   1997-98    1998-99   1999-00   2000-01   2001-02


earners per household. We expect then that the average household
income of migrants to be below that of the general population. On the
other hand, because migrant households are also likely to have fewer                                              Per Capita Incomes in the Louisville Metro Area
people who are not wage earners (children and other non-working                         $28,000
dependents), we do not expect to see the same disparities between the                                                        All persons        In-migrants         Out-migrants
per capita incomes of migrants and the general population.
                                                                                        $24,000


In fact, from 1992-93 through 1996-97, the average annual incomes of
all households in the Louisville metro area were consistently above                     $20,000
those of both in-migrant and out-migrant households. We also see that
the incomes of households leaving the metro area were, on average,
consistently above those moving in. Per capita incomes also met our                     $16,000


expectations. In-migrant and out-migrant incomes per capita were
above those of the general population. During the late 1990’s,                          $12,000




5
    Adjusted gross income includes the taxable income from all sources, less the         $8,000
                                                                                                   1992-93     1993-94    1994-95     1995-96   1996-97   1997-98    1998-99   1999-00   2000-01   2001-02
      adjustments to income, such as IRS deduction, self employment tax and                  Source: Internal Revenue Service.
      health insurance, alimony paid, etc. (See line 32 on the form 1040).




                                                                                   13
however, the incomes of out-migrant households rose faster and were,
on average, above those of all metro area households. We see the                                                       Income Flows in the Louisville Metro Area
largest variance in average household incomes in 1999-00: $49,100 for                          $700,000

out-migrants, $41,100 for in-migrants, and $46,700 for all metro area                                                            In-flows      Out-flows
households.                                                                                    $600,000


Over the 10 years, we see the flow of income leaving the metro area
growing faster than the in-flow. The income of out-migrants totaled                            $500,000




                                                                                 In $1,000's
$366 million in 1992-93 and $636 million in 2001-02, and increase of 74
percent. Meanwhile, the total income of in-migrants rose 50 percent,
from $373 million to $560 million. In-migrant incomes, in sum, were                            $400,000


actually greater than the total income of out-migrants from 1992-93
through 1994-95, resulting in a net in-flow of $28 million to the metro                        $300,000
area. During the next seven years, the total income of out-migrants
was increasingly above the total income of the counter-stream. The
metro area was losing $80 million per year at the end of the study                             $200,000
                                                                                                            1992-93   1993-94     1994-95    1995-96   1996-97   1997-98   1998-99   1999-00   2000-01   2001-02
period. The total net out-flow over the seven years was $413 million.                 Source: Internal Revenue Service.


Flows of income were generally consistent with migration patterns                                                     Net Flows of Income in the Louisville Metro Area
except that net outflows of income from Louisville to other metros
were typically larger than the corresponding net migration. Net inflows                         $20,000
of income to Louisville were largest from Cleveland, Lexington,
Chicago, Owensboro, and Dayton. Net outflows reflected the wage                                      $0
disparities between Louisville and its competitor metros and especially                                     1992-93    1993-94     1994-95   1995-96   1996-97   1997-98   1998-99   1999-00   2000-01   2001-02

the costs to Louisville associated with retirement migration. Five of the
                                                                                                ($20,000)
top six metros where the net inflows of income from Louisville were
largest were located in Florida. The net loss to Naples alone was $45            In $1,000's
million over ten years. After Naples, Louisville’s losses of income were                        ($40,000)


largest with Nashville, West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, Tampa, Sarasota-
Bradenton, Fort Myers, and Charlotte. While gaining more migrants                               ($60,000)

from Louisville than any other metro area, Indianapolis ranked eighth
on net outflow of income from Louisville.                                                       ($80,000)



                                                                                               ($100,000)
                                                                                      Source: Internal Revenue Service.




                                                                            14
                                                                                                                                                             Louisville Metro Area
                                       Top 25 Metro Areas                                                                                             Inter-Metro Income Flows 1992-2002
       Net Inflow of Income to Louisville from:        Net Outflow of Income from Louisville to:                             !
                                                                                                                             (
                                                                                                                         !
                                                                                                                         (
1       CLEVELAND                                $44,233      NAPLES                      -$44,782                   (
                                                                                                                     !
2       LEXINGTON                                $38,526      NASHVILLE                   -$32,699
3       CHICAGO                                  $16,856      W. PALM BCH-BOCA RATON      -$31,676                                                                                                                                                                      !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        (

        OWENSBORO                                $11,927      TAMPA                       -$27,453
                                                                                                                                                                                       !
                                                                                                                                                                                       (
4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              (
5       DAYTON                                   $10,764      SARASOTA-BRADENTON          -$24,675                                                                                                         !
                                                                                                                                                                                                           (                                                !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               ! !!
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               ( ((
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        (

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             ((
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             !!


                                                                                                                                                                                                    (! !! ! !!!!
                                                                                                                                                                                                    !( (( ( ((((
        EVANSVILLE-HENDERSON                      $9,930      FORT MYERS                  -$23,623
6
                                                                                                                                                                                                               !
                                                                                                                                                                                                               (                                                         !!
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         ((
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               (
                                                                                                                                                                                                       ! !
                                                                                                                                                                                                       ( (            !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ((
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       !
7       MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL                      $8,900      CHARLOTTE                   -$23,578
                                                                                                                         !
                                                                                                                         (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   !! !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   (( (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        !!
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        ((
                                                                                                                                          !
                                                                                                                                          (
                                                                                                                                                                                                     !
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                                                                                                                                                                                                       !
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                   !!
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                               ( (                                      (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        !

                                                                                                          !
                                                                                                          (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         !
8       NEW YORK                                  $8,719      INDIANAPOLIS                -$19,963               !
                                                                                                                 (                                                                     !
                                                                                                                                                                                       (           !
                                                                                                                                                                                                   (                                       !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           (

                                                                                                                                                                                                     !! !
                                                                                                                                                                                                     (( (
                                                                                                                                                                              !
                                                                                                                                                                              (                                                                                     !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    (
                                                                                                          !
                                                                                                          (
                                                                                                             !
                                                                                                             (
                                                                                                                                           !
                                                                                                                                           (                  !
                                                                                                                                                              (                                                                !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               (
        DETROIT                                   $8,702      ATLANTA                     -$19,388                                                            !
                                                                                                                                                                                                   ! !! ! !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       !
                                                                                                                                                              (               (
                                                                                                                                                                              !




                                                                                                                                                                                                   ( (( ( (
9
                                                                                                                                                              !
                                                                                                                                                                                                           !

                                                                                                                                                              (                                            !(
                                                                                                                                                                                                           (
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                                                                                                                                                                                                     !!
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           !
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                                                                                                                                                                                                     ((
                                                                                                             !

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               !
                                                                                                             (
                                                                                                                                                                                                       (
                                                                                                                                                                                                       !                       (
10
11
        HUNTINGTON-ASHLAND
        NASSAU-SUFFOLK
                                                  $8,625
                                                  $8,386
                                                              FORT WALTON BEACH
                                                              CINCINNATI
                                                                                          -$18,371
                                                                                          -$17,233
                                                                                                             !
                                                                                                             (

                                                                                                                                 !
                                                                                                                                 (
                                                                                                                                                                  !
                                                                                                                                                                  (
                                                                                                                                                                                   !
                                                                                                                                                                                   (           !
                                                                                                                                                                                               (
                                                                                                                                                                                                         !
                                                                                                                                                                                                         (    !
                                                                                                                                                                                                              (


                                                                                                                                                                          !
                                                                                                                                                                          (
                                                                                                                                                                                                   (! (
                                                                                                                                                                                                   !( !
12      OAKLAND                                   $7,988      SAN FRANCISCO               -$16,649                   (
                                                                                                                     !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       !
13      ORANGE COUNTY (CA)                        $7,789      FT LAUDRDALE                -$15,845               (
                                                                                                                 !
                                                                                                                  !(
                                                                                                                  (!
                                                                                                                                                                                           (
                                                                                                                                                                                           !
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                ! !
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           (
                                                                                                                                                                              (                                                                             !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            (       (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    !
        LOS ANGELES                               $7,458      COLUMBUS (OH)               -$13,201                                                     !
                                                                                                                                                       (
                                                                                                                                                                                                               !
                                                                                                                                                                                                               (               !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               (           (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           !
14
                                                                                                                                                                        (
                                                                                                                                                                        !
                                                                                                                                                                                                     !
                                                                                                                                                                                                     (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                (
                                                                                                                   !
                                                                                                                   (
                                                                                                                                     !
                                                                                                                                     (                                                         !
                                                                                                                                                                                               (                   !
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               (    !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            !
15      GARY                                      $6,084      RICHMOND (VA)               -$12,226                                                                    !
                                                                                                                                                                      (                                                                !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               ! (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               ( !
        DALLAS                                    $5,943      PHOENIX                     -$12,219                                                                                                                     !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       (           !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   (
16
17      MEMPHIS                                   $5,635      ORLANDO                     -$12,111                                   !
                                                                                                                                     (                                    !
                                                                                                                                                                          (   !
                                                                                                                                                                              (        (
                                                                                                                                                                                       !                                   ( !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           ! (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                !


                                                                                                                                                      !
                                                                                                                                                      (                                                (
                                                                                                                                                                                                       !

18
19
        TOLEDO
        ST. LOUIS
                                                  $5,373
                                                  $5,003
                                                              DENVER
                                                              AUSTIN
                                                                                           -$8,625
                                                                                           -$7,795
                                                                                                                                                                      !
                                                                                                                                                                      (
                                                                                                                                                                          !
                                                                                                                                                                          (
                                                                                                                                                                                                   !
                                                                                                                                                                                                   (           !
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               (
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                                                                                                                                                                                                       !
                                                                                                                                                                                                       (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         (!                    !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               (
20      NORFOLK                                   $4,843      LAS VEGAS                    -$7,688                                                                                !
                                                                                                                                                                                  (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               !(
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        !
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                                                                                                                                                                                   !
                                                                                                                                                                                   (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               (
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               !
        NEW ORLEANS                               $4,657      JACKSONVILLE (FL)            -$5,385

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               (
21
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            (
22      WICHITA                                   $4,576      BALTIMORE                    -$5,296                                                                        (
                                                                                                                                                                          !                                                                     !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                (
23      PITTSBURGH                                $4,487      TUCSON                       -$5,171                                                                                                                                                          !
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            (


24      BUFFALO-NIAGARA FALLS                     $4,436      LAKELAND-WINTER HAVEN        -$4,189
25      CHARLESTON (WV)                           $4,212      MACON                        -$3,967
     Income in $1,000's, 1992-2002.                                                                       Net gain in total income to Louisville Metro Area
     Source: Internal Revenue Servies Migration Flow Data, 1990-2002
                                                                                                          Net loss in total income from Louisville Metro Area




                                                                                                     15
Migrant Characteristics
                                                                               Age and Education of Migrants and Non-Movers in the Louisville Metro Area
We are primarily concerned with the migrant characteristics related to          100%
human capital and the workforce. It is well known that people are
more mobile as young workers and retirees than at any other stage of                                                                 65 years and above
                                                                                 80%
life, and this pattern is certainly clear in our study of Louisville
migration. We looked at these tendencies in the Louisville metro area
                                                                                 60%                                                 35-64 years
with the 2000 Census migration data. These data focus on a single
period, 1995-2000 and provide detailed demographic and economic
characteristics of migration flows between counties. `Only the                   40%
                                                                                                                                     20-34 years
characteristics of domestic migrants were analyzed.
                                                                                 20%
Comparing Louisville’s migrants and non-movers reveals the well-                                                                     5-19 years
documented tendency of migrants to be generally younger and more                  0%
educated than those who stay put. Three of five migrants were under                    Non-Movers    In-Migrants     O ut-Migrants
age 35 years, while three of five non-movers were age 35 years and              100%

above. Migrants were twice as likely to be college educated. Two of                                                                  Graduate/Professional degree
five migrants had a bachelor degree or above, compared to one of five            80%

non-movers.                                                                                                                          Bachelors degree
                                                                                 60%
Many Louisvillians of college age tend to move to Lexington,                                                                         Som e college or associate degree
Tallahassee, Cincinnati, Bloomington, Indianapolis, and Lafayette.               40%
Many young workers entering the labor also leave Louisville at this                                                                  High school graduate or GED
stage resulting in substantial net out-migration of persons 15-19 years
                                                                                 20%
and 20-24 years.                                                                                                                     Not high school grad

                                                                                  0%
On the other hand, Louisville’s largest migration gains were from the                           Persons 25 years and above
labor market flows of persons 25-29 years, the most mobile age cohort            Source: 2000 Census Migration DVD
locally. Undoubtedly, many of these in-migrants were “native” sons
and daughters coming home after acquiring higher education
credentials and work experience. More migrants holding bachelors               age 30, migration activity dropped off increasingly with each older
degrees have moved into the metro area than departed in recent years.          cohort. Flows to and from the metro area of persons who had
Louisville’s primary suppliers of these educated workers were                  graduate or professional degrees were half the size of those who had
Lexington, Bloomington, Philadelphia, Detroit, and Lafayette. After            not attained education past their high school diplomas. For these




                                                                          16
                                                                                                            Louisville Metro Area Domestic Migration by Age
valued, more educated workers, primary destinations from Louisville
were Columbus, Atlanta, Chicago, Raleigh-Durham, and Tampa. Top                              85 y ears and over

suppliers were Lexington, Los Angeles, Dayton, Boston, and Cleveland.                           80 to 84 y ears

The largest employment categories of Louisville migrants were                                   75 to 79 y ears

                                                                                                                                                  In-migrants        Out-migrants
professional and related occupations and education, health, and social                          70 to 74 y ears

                                                                                                65 to 69 y ears
service industries. After age 55, retirement migration, primarily to
                                                                                                60 to 64 y ears
metro areas in Florida, was evident by net out-migration of older folks
                                                                                                55 to 59 y ears
and the corresponding outflows of income.




                                                                               Age in 2000
                                                                                                50 to 54 y ears

                                                                                                45 to 49 y ears
The net in-migration of children and the larger household sizes of in-                          40 to 44 y ears
migrants compared to out-migrants implies that the metro area has                               35 to 39 y ears
attracted a relatively large number of families. However, during the                            30 to 34 y ears
recent recession, the average household size of in-migrants dropped                             25 to 29 y ears
substantially.                                                                                  20 to 24 y ears

                                                                                                15 to 19 y ears

                                                                                                10 to 14 y ears

                                                                                                  5 to 9 y ears


                                                                                                                  0               4,000             8,000             12,000           16,000



                                                                                                                  Louisville Metro Area Domestic Migration by Education

                                                                                                     Graduate/professional
                                                                                                           degree


                                                                                                          Bachelors degree


                                                                                                          Associate degree

                                                                                                          Some college, no
                                                                                                              degree

                                                                                                       High school grad or
                                                                                                              GED

                                                                                                         9th-12th grade, no
                                                                                                              diploma
                                                                                                                                                            In-migrants       Out-migrants

                                                                                                       Less than 9th grade

                                                                                                                              0           5,000             10,000           15,000      20,000

                                                                                                                                                  Persons 25 years & above



                                                                          17
          Louisville Metro Area Domestic Migration by Industry

                         Public administration                                                                                                                                                 Top 25 Metro Areas
                                                                            In-migrants          Out-migrants                                  Migrants with Bachelors Degree only                                           Migrants with Graduate or Professional Degree
 Other services (except public administration)
                                                                                                                         Net In-Migration to Louisville from:     Net Out-Migration from Louisville to:    Net In-Migration to Louisville from:       Net Out-migration from Louisville to:
 Arts, entertain., rec., accom., & food services
                                                                                                                         LEXINGTON                           874        CHARLOTTE                   -152   LEXINGTON                           273     COLUMBUS                             -107
         Educational, health, & social services                                                                          BLOOMINGTON                         191        PHOENIX                     -120   LOS ANGELES                          89     ATLANTA                               -96
                                                                                                                         PHILADELPHIA                        133        MINNEAPOLIS                  -92   DAYTON                               72     CHICAGO                               -93
Professional, scientific, management, & admin.                                                                           DETROIT                             124        RICHMOND                     -82   BOSTON                               64     RALEIGH-DURHAM                        -72
                                                                                                                         LAFAYETTE                           124        HOUSTON                      -80   CLEVELAND                            61     TAMPA                                 -66
              Finance, insurance, & real estate                                                                          EVANSVILLE-HENDERSON                114        OAKLAND                      -73   BATON ROUGE                          54     FORT MYERS                            -61
                                                                                                                         LITTLE ROCK                         106        AUSTIN                       -71   EVANSVILLE-HENDERSON                 51     INDIANAPOLIS                          -59
                                   Information                                                                           TERRE HAUTE                         103        FORT MYERS                   -62   BLOOMINGTON                          43     SAN JOSE                              -59
                                                                                                                         CLEVELAND                           102        DENVER                       -59   COLUMBIA                             41     DALLAS                                -58
         Transportation,w arehouse, & utilities
                                                                                                                         LOS ANGELES                          90        CLARKSVILLE-HOPKINSVILLE     -58   BALTIMORE                            39     NASHVILLE                             -56
                                   Retail trade                                                                          BIRMINGHAM                           80        NAPLES                       -58   OWENSBORO                            38     DENVER                                -55
                                                                                                                         MIAMI                                79        GAINESVILLE                  -53   AKRON                                38     RICHMOND                              -49
                               Wholesale trade                                                                           NEW HAVEN                            74        BALTIMORE                    -52   NEW HAVEN                            37     SARASOTA-BRADENTON                    -44
                                                                                                                         WASHINGTON                           66        WEST PALM BEACH              -41   HUNTINGTON-ASHLAND                   35     SEATTLE                               -44
                                Manufacturing                                                                            PROVO                                65        DAYTONA BEACH                -40   BUFFALO-NIAGARA FALLS                34     COLUMBUS                              -42
                                                                                                                         HUNTINGTON-ASHLAND                   64        NEWARK                       -38   LANSING                              32     GREENVILLE                            -41
                                  Construction                                                                           WICHITA                              59        COLUMBIA                     -35   TOLEDO                               30     SAN DIEGO                             -40
                                                                                                                         ST. LOUIS                            54        LAS VEGAS                    -34   GARY                                 30     MILWAUKEE                             -39
                                        Mining                                                                           MUNCIE                               54        SEATTLE                      -31   BIRMINGHAM                           29     CORVALLIS                             -39
                                                                                                                         MEMPHIS                              53        RIVERSIDE-SAN BERNARDINO     -31   MIAMI (FL)                           29     SAN FRANCISCO                         -38
       Agriculture, forestry, fishing, & hunting
                                                                                                                         AKRON                                53        DALLAS                       -30   TACOMA                               27     JOHNSON CITY (TN)                     -36
                                                                                                                         TOPEKA                               53        SARASOTA-BRADENTON           -30   TUCSON                               26     GRAND RAPIDS                          -33
                                                     0      2,500       5,000           7,500       10,000      12,500
                                                                                                                         HUNTSVILLE                           47        HAMILTON-MIDDLETOWN (OH)     -27   MINNEAPOLIS                          25     CINCINNATI                            -31
                                                          Employed perons 16 years and above                             AUGUSTA (GA)                         46        BOSTON                       -26   HUNTSVILLE                           25     CEDAR RAPIDS                          -31
                                                                                                                         SACRAMENTO                           45        JACKSON                      -26   ROCKFORD                             25     KANSAS CITY                           -30

                                                                                                                                     Migrants Employed in Professional Occupations                                                      Migrants Enrolled in College
                                                                                                                         Net In-Migration to Louisville from:    Net Out-Migration from Louisville to:     In-Migration to Louisville from:             Out-Migration from Louisville to:
                  Louisville Metro Area Domestic Migration by Occupation                                                 LEXINGTON                           422        ATLANTA                     -169   LEXINGTON                           893     LEXINGTON                            2,673
                                                                                                                         EVANSVILLE-HENDERSON                131        INDIANAPOLIS                -119   CINCINNATI                          499     TALLAHASSEE                            674
                                                                                                                         PHILADELPHIA                         95        DALLAS                      -117   INDIANAPOLIS                        198     CINCINNATI                             613
          Transportation & m aterial m oving                                                                             NEW YORK                             94        RALEIGH-DURHAM              -101   CHICAGO                             189     BLOOMINGTON                            543
                                                                                                                         CLEVELAND                            81        DENVER                       -92   WASHINGTON, DC                      177     INDIANAPOLIS                           442
                                  Production                                                                             RIVERSIDE                            78        RICHMOND                     -61   EVANSVILLE-HENDERSON                160     LAFAYETTE                              364
                                                                                                                         BUFFALO                              63        COLUMBUS                     -52   OWENSBORO                           157     NASHVILLE                              333
          Installation, m aintenance, & repair                                                                           BOSTON                               61        WASHINGTON, DC               -51   ATLANTA                             152     EVANSVILLE-HENDERSON                   325
                                                                            In-migrants         Out-migrants             GREENSBORO                           59        BALTIMORE                    -51   ST. LOUIS                           139     WASHINGTON, DC                         250
                                                                                                                         HUNTINGTON-ASHLAND                   54        HAMILTON-MIDDLETOWN          -46   CLARKSVILLE-HOPKINSVILLE            138     ATLANTA                                241
                   Construction & extraction                                                                             MIAMI                                52        NASHVILLE                    -44   NASHVILLE                           127     MUNCIE                                 186
                                                                                                                         AKRON                                52        CHICAGO                      -41   PHILADELPHIA                         99     DAYTON                                 183
                 Farm ing, fishing, & forestry                                                                           TERRE HAUTE                          49        JACKSONVILLE                 -40   NORFOLK-VA BEACH-NEWPOR              90     BOSTON                                 165
                                                                                                                         MUNCIE                               46        CHARLOTTE                    -40   CLEVELAND                            75     COLUMBUS                               163
             Office & adm inistrative support                                                                            BIRMINGHAM                           45        GREENVILLE                   -36   HOUSTON                              71     CHICAGO                                161
                                                                                                                         TACOMA                               41        MILWAUKEE                    -35   DAYTON                               69     ST. LOUIS                              141
                                                                                                                         DAVENPORT                            40        TAMPA                        -28   TAMPA                                67     TERRE HAUTE                            118
                               Sales & related
                                                                                                                         CLARKSVILLE-HOPKINSVILLE             37        SAN DIEGO                    -26   PROVO                                65     HAMILTON-MIDDLETOWN                    117
                                                                                                                         WEST PALM BEACH                      36        DETROIT                      -25   DETROIT                              61     TAMPA                                  112
                                Other service                                                                            HUNTSVILLE                           36        JOHNSON CITY                 -19   NEW YORK                             59     AUBURN                                 104
                                                                                                                         CHARLESTON                           35        SAN ANTONIO                  -15   HONOLULU                             55     KNOXVILLE                               99
                            Protective service                                                                           CINCINNATI                           34        CHATTANOOGA                  -14   JACKSONVILLE                         55     NEW YORK                                90
                                                                                                                         SACRAMENTO                           34        TUCSON                       -13   MIAMI                                53     JACKSONVILLE                            90
                                                                                                                         ST. LOUIS                            33        MINNEAPOLIS                  -12   SAN DIEGO                            51     SAN DIEGO                               86
                       Professional & related
                                                                                                                         OWENSBORO                            32        ORLANDO                      -11   OAKLAND, CA (P)                      49     NORFOLK                                 85
                                                                                                                         Source: 2000 Census Migration DVD
            Management, business & finance

                                                 0       2,500      5,000       7,500      10,000     12,500    15,000

                                                            Employed persons 16 years & above




                                                                                                                                                                   18
Intra-Metro Migration Flows
                                                                                                                                                                 Scott
In this final section, we looked at the migration flows to and from the
individaul counties which comprised the Louisville metro area. While                                                                                           200       100
each county exchanged migrants with all other metro area counties
(shown in the table on the next page), the intra-metro flows between
Jefferson and the peripheral counties were of particular concern to us.                                                                                                  Clark
                                                                                                                                                                         4,500
Gross migration was larger in Jefferson County alone than in all the                                                                                                                3,100
                                                                                                                                                             2,500                    Oldham
peripheral counties combined. Seven of ten metro area out-migrants
were from Jefferson County. In the counter stream, seven of ten                                                                                     Floyd
migrants to the metro area moved to Jefferson County. While two of                                                                                       2,900
ten Jefferson out-migrants moved to the peripheral counties of the                                                                                                                      5,600
                                                                                                                                                     1,900
metro area, only one of ten Jefferson in-migrants was from the                                                                       Harrison
peripheral counties. Two thirds of the in-migrants to Bullitt County                                                                        1,100
and one half of the in-migrants to Oldham County were from Jefferson                                                                                                 Jefferson
County. One fourth of the in-migrants to the four Indiana counties
had origins in Jefferson County.
                                                                                                                                            500

               Metro Area County Migration Flows 1995-2000
                                                                                                                                                                            3,500
     Clark Co.                                                                                                                                                 8,600
                                                            In-migrants          Out-migrants                                     Louisville Metro Area
     Floyd Co.                                                                                                                                                    Bullitt
                                                                                                                                  Migration 1995-2000
  Harrison Co.

      Scott Co.


    Bu llitt Co.
                                                                                                                     All flows from Jefferson to the peripheral counties (outward flows)
  Jefferson Co.                                                                                                      were larger than the counter flows (inward flows). Jefferson and Bullitt
                                                                                                                     had the largest differences in the size of respective migration streams.
  O ldham Co.
                                                                                                                     For every five persons who moved from Jefferson to Bullitt, two
                   0   10,000   20,000   30,000   40,000   50,000   60,000   70,000   80,000   90,000 100,000        persons made the reverse move.
                                             Persons 5 years & above in 2000
             Source: 2000 Census Migration DVD




                                                                                                                19
We found that the relocation between Jefferson and the peripheral
counties reflected subtle life cycle differences between inward and
outward flows. Migrants from Jefferson County to the periphery were
more likely to be married, somewhat older, and have larger households                                                                                     Intra-Metro Migration by Marital Status 1995-2000
and incomes than the counter stream—representing the classic move to
the suburbs. In contrast, the inward flows, it appears, were more
associated with labor force entry and marital dissolution. Movers from
                                                                                                                                                 Jefferson to Periphery
the periphery to the core were more likely to be separated, divorced, or
widowed. Many were also younger, never married, and seeking
employment.                                                                                                                                                                    Married     W idowed        Divorced      Separated         Never m arried



               Migration Flows between Louisville Metro Area Counties, 1995-2000
                     g                                                                                                                           Periphery to Jefferson
                   to:
                         Clark      Floyd           Harrison        Scott             Bullitt      Jefferson      Oldham    Outside MSA
Migration from:
 Clark Co.                          3,719             715            820                69           2,498         117             7,769                                  0%             20%           40%             60%                80%          100%

 Floyd Co.               4,046                       1,611            79                52           1,905         338             5,708                                                  Percent of persons 15 years & above in 2000
 Harrison Co.            365         970                                 9              21           459            63             2,960                     Source: 2000 Census Migration DVD
 Scott Co.               324          96              31                                25           130            0              2,539
 Bullitt Co.             157          10              15              13                             3,541         188             4,872
 Jefferson Co.           4,466      2,941            1,097           157              8,597                        5,637           77,159
 Oldham Co.               65          47               6                 6              78           3,126                         5,770
 Outside MSA             7,812      1,739            3,409          2,296             4,463         69,425         5,770                                        Intra-Metro Migration by Income 1995-2000
                                                               Persons 5 years and above in 2000
Source: 2000 Census Migration DVD


                         Jefferson County Migration Flows 1995-2000
                                                                                                                                                 Jefferson to Periphery




                                                                                                                                                                               Under $20K         $20K-$35K         $35K-$50K             $50K & above
       In-m igrants from :



                                                                                                                                                 Periphery to Jefferson
                                 4 Indiana Cos.         Bullitt Co.           Oldham Co.          Outside Metro Area



        Out-m igrants to:
                                                                                                                                                                          0%             20%           40%             60%                80%          100%
                                                                                                                                                                                            Percent of persons 16 years & above in 2000

                                                                                                                                                             Source: 2000 Census Migration DVD
                             0   10,000    20,000    30,000     40,000       50,000   60,000    70,000   80,000   90,000 100,000

                                                       Persons 5 years & above in 2000
                    Source: 2000 Census Migration DVD




                                                                                                                                            20

								
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