Quantitative Project Risk Analysis

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Quantitative Project Risk Analysis Powered By Docstoc
					RiskyProject
Project Risk Management Software



 Intaver Institute Inc.
 303, 6707, Elbow Drive S.W, Calgary, AB, Canada
 Tel: +1(403)692-2252
 Fax: +1(403)459-4533
 www.intaver.com
What Is RiskyProject?




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RiskyProject is Windows-based project risk
management software.

  •   Project Scheduling
  •   Risk Register




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  •   Quantitative risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulations
  •   Project performance measurement


Risky Project gives you a simple answer to a common
question: What will happen to your project if certain
risks occur?
                                                                         2
The Project Management Problem




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                 • Budget
                 • Schedule
   Projects      • Quality




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 consistently
 fail to meet:   • Safety
                 • Technology
                 • Other measures

                                          3
The Project Management Problem




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    Reasons




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•   Human psychological limits
•   Inadequate training
•   Poor processes
•   others

                                       4
The Project Management Problem




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  Key Project Management Issues

• How to estimate project duration or cost?




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• What are the most critical risks and how to
  mitigate them?
• How to measure project performance?
• How to make an informed decision about future
  course of the project?
                                                        5
The RiskyProject Solution




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Project risk management made simple

• RiskyProject is consistent with PMI PMBOK. Risky
  Project supports the full project risk management




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  process.
• RiskyProject is very easy to use. RiskyProject is uses a
  scheduling interface similar to other project popular
  project management tools. This will allow project
  managers to easily integrate powerful risk management
  capabilities into their project planning
• RiskyProject has low implementation and support costs.           6
  Compared with the comparative products, RiskyProject
  provides unmatched value
The RiskyProject Solution




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Project risk management for Project
Managers




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• Provide state of art quantitative project risk management
  tools
• Low cost
• Ease of implementation
• Limited initial training required
• Scalable
                                                                    7
RiskyProject Features




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•   Full scheduling engine with costs and resources
•   Full risk register that links to project schedules
•   Quantitative and qualitative analysis
•   Easy to use quantitative schedule risk analysis based on
    risk events




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•   Probabilistic cash flow analysis
•   Project tracking with risks and uncertainties
•   Integration with Microsoft Project, Primavera, or other
    project management software
•   Optional decision tree analysis
•   Analysis of critical risk events which need to be mitigated
    first
                                                                        8
RiskyProject Features




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•   Product lifecycle management
•   Risk templates
•   Probabilistic and conditional branching
•   Managing mitigation plans




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•   “What if “ analysis
•   Advanced reporting tools
•   Risk event correlations
•   Multiple statistical distributions and distribution fitting


                                                                        9
RiskyProject Workflow




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 RiskyProject uses common PM
 artifacts




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 •   WBS
 •   Resources
 •   Costs
 •   Risk Register or Risk Lists
                                   10
Basic RiskyProject Workflow




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1.   Define project defaults
2.   Define risk categories and outcomes
3.   Create or import project schedule




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4.   Define and assign project risks
5.   Run Simulations
6.   Analyze results
7.   Monitor performance with risks and
     uncertainties
                                           11
                                          RiskyProject Workflow




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12
 Define Project Schedule

               Enter resources, cost and
                   income for each task
                                                              Enter complete WBS,




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                                                               as it is done in other
                                                              project management
                                                                            software




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You may also import project schedules from other scheduling tools, such as Microsoft
Project or Primavera.                                                                   13
                         Risk Register
     Risk register
     view




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Separate
opened and                           Pre mitigation   Post mitigation
closed risk and                      Probability,
                     Separate                         Probability,
issues                               Impact, and
                     threats or                       Impact, and
                                     Score            Score
                     opportunities                                      14
    Risk Form
       Double-click on a risk to view or modify Risk Information




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Risk description
and status



Management




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Strategy


Cost of Risk




Review Timeline

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Qualitative and Quantitative Risk Assessment
  If no schedule is attached, qualitative risk assessments can be




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  performed




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                         Outcome Types are
                         now qualitative     Outcomes for risk
                                             categories are qualitative
                                             and are based on risk
                                             matrix settings

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Mitigation Plans
  Add mitigation or risk response plans (cost, expected
  reduction in probability and impact, an descriptions.
  Plans can have sub-plans




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Mitigation Waterfall Chart
   Track total cost and expected reductions in probability
   or impact and dates for mitigation plans




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                                                               18
Risk Reviews
  All risk reviews with details can be saved and tracked




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  in system




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                                                             19
                                          Risk History




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20
  Risk Assignment
Risks can be global (for
all tasks or resources)
or local (for specific
tasks or resources)




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     Define risk chance, outcome and
     result. Risks can have mutually
     exclusive outcomes, different
     outcomes of the same risk         21
Statistical Distribution for Risk impacts




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                              Statistical Distributions
                                  are enabled in Risk
                              Options. Description of
                                   feature to the left.




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                                Enter Base, Low,
                               and High Impacts
                                       and select           22
                                distribution type
 Statistical Distributions

                                  In addition to risk events
                                  you may define




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                                  uncertainties as statistical
                                  distributions for:
                                   task cost




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                                   task start time
                                   task duration
                                   income associated with
If you enter only the low, base   task
and high cost, duration, start
time and income, RiskyProject
will generate statistical
distribution based on this data

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Monte Carlo Simulation




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      When your project schedule
      and risk breakdown structure is
      ready, click here to perform
      Monte Carlo simulations




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                                        24
Result Gantt Chart
   Compare original project schedule and result of analysis




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                                                     White bars represent
                                                          original project
                                                      schedule (no risks)




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                                                        Blue bars represent
                                                      project schedule with
                                                                       risks



                                                                               25
Results of Risk Analysis

                                                           Project Summary:
                                                            project duration,




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                                                         cost, and finish time
                                                            with and without
                                                                          risks




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                                                           Results of analysis
                                                             for project cost,
                                                             finish time, and     26
Double click on any chart to view detailed information               duration
  Detailed Results of Analysis
Detailed results can be shown for each task
or project for cost, duration, start time, finish
                                                    Move the slider to determine
time, and income.
                                                     the chance that project will
                                                                be within budget




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                                                          Data can be exported
                                                            as an image or text
Get detailed
statistical data


                                                                                    27
Cost, Income and Revenue




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                                      Compare forecasted
                                    project costs with (blue
                                     line) and without (red
 Cost chart is generated based on           line) risks
   fixed and variables cost and
income associated with tasks and
             resources                                         28
Probabilistic Cash Flow Analysis




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                                    Compare cash flows
 Cash flow is generated based on    with (blue bars) and
   fixed and variables cost and    without (red line) risks
income associated with tasks and
             resources
                                                          29
Sensitivity Analysis




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       Prioritize critical risks




                    Tornado chart shows risks or other
                   parameters that have the most affect
                         on the project schedule

                                                          30
Crucial Tasks


                Crucial tasks for project cost and




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                   duration can be different




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                Crucial tasks have the
                 most affect on the
                  project schedule
                                                     31
Risk Chart
Risk chart shows task duration and versus risk, associated with task




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                                                            This task has low
                                                            duration but high
                                                            risk




               These tasks have
              balanced risk versus
                                                                                32
                 duration ratio.
Risk Matrix




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        Risk Probability,
      Impact and Score for
      the current schedule

                             33
   Project Dashboard 3x3

Project Dashboard 3x3
is a condensed view of      3 most important project




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  the most important       parameters (cost, duration,
   results of analysis          and finish time)




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                                    3 most crucial tasks



                                    3 most critical risks


                                                            34
    Project Tracking
For each task at any moment you may enter how much work has been completed
                                                       This task is 100%
                                                     completed (green bar)




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                                                           This task is partially
                                                           completed (yellow
                                                                   bar)
           Risky project automatically
         adjusts the probability of risks
          for partially completed tasks                                             35
 Tracking Results
New project forecast is done each time actual project data is entered




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                                                           Low, base, and
                                                            high forecast




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                  Original (baseline)
                   project duration                   Actual project
                                                        duration




                                                                            36
Advanced Project Risk Management
   Risk Mitigation




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   • Create multiple baselines that model mitigation
     efforts
   • View results of mitigation efforts in risk register




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   • Select project schedule based on criteria (cost,
     duration, start time, finish time)




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Advanced Project Risk Management

   Create baselines that model mitigation efforts

   • Mitigation can include additional activities, costs, and risks




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   • Baselines can be based on any result type




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                                                                      38
Advanced Project Risk Management
   View mitigation efforts

   • Risk register allows you to compare pre and post mitigation risk
     scores




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                                                                    Pre and post
                                                                    mitigation risk
                                                                        scores

                                      Select pre and post
                                      mitigation baselines
                                        to view on risk
                                                                                      39
                                            register
Mitigation Plans
  Add mitigation or risk response plans (cost, expected
  reduction in probability and impact, an descriptions.
  Plans can have sub-plans




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                                                            40
Mitigation Waterfall Chart
   Track total cost and expected reductions in probability
   or impact and dates for mitigation plans




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                                                               41
Advanced Project Risk Management
   View mitigation efforts

   • For each risk




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                             Waterfall diagram
                             charts changes in
  See risk scores for          risk scores for
    each baseline            selected baselines


                                                  42
Advanced Project Risk Management




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                        Compare results for
   Select the current     each baseline
       schedule




                                              43
Advanced Project Risk Management




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                          Run alternative
                         project branches
                         probabilistically




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Integration with MS Project 2010
 Risk tab installed on MSProject ribbon allows users move projects
 seamlessly into RiskyProject




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                                                                       45
Integration With PM Software
     RiskyProject can export original project schedules and results of analysis
 to other project management software include Microsoft Project and Primavera




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                           Project schedule
                          can be visualized as
                          WBS or PERT chart




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                                                    These software tools,
                                                     including Microsoft
                                                  Project, can be executed
                                                  directly from RiskyProject


                          RiskyProject schedule
                           can be converted to
                              decision tree
                                                                                  46
Intaver Institute’s Services
Intaver Institute performs project risk management, risk




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analysis, and decision analysis training and consulting

Popular Intaver’s training courses include:




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•   Project management: theory and best practices
•    Introduction to project risk management: theory and case
    studies
•   Project decision analysis
•   Quantitative methods in project management
•    Introduction to RiskyProject: basic RiskyProject workflow and
    features                                                         47


•   Advanced features of RiskyProject Professional

				
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