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Rice Supply in World Market


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									Medium- and Long-term Prospects of Rice Supply and Demand in the 21st Century
Harrar Hall Seminar Room, 3-5 December 2001

   To analyze determinants of demand and supply of rice.
   To determine potentials for further increasing rice production with due consideration to
    growing concerns on environment.
   To identify market and other developmental policies that would induce further production
   To present new estimates of medium- and long-term projection of rice demand and supply.
   To strengthen collaboration with advanced academic institutions and national policy
    research institutes regarding social sciences research.

   Recent developments in the rice sector of major Asian countries reviewed.
   Emerging trends in the rice supply-demand balanced assessed.
   Partnership with NARS on food policy research strengthened.
   Workshop proceedings published.

Tentative Program

Monday, 3 December 2001
0800 - 0830 Registration
0830 - 0845 Welcome address                               Dr. R.P. Cantrell
0845 - 0900 Overview of the workshop                      Dr. M. Hossain
0900 - 0945 Keynote address: The Asian Rice
            Economy in Transition                         Dr. R. Barker, IWMI

0945-1015              COFFEE BREAK

Part 1: Country Perspective on the Medium-and
       Long-term Outlook of Rice Supply and Demand

Session 1
1015 -1110 China                                          Dr. J. Huang, Chinese
                                                     `     Center for Ag. Policies

1110 -1200 India                                          Dr. P. Kumar, IARI, India

1200 -1315       L U N C H B R E A K ( Executive Dining Room )

Session 2
1315 -1355 Indonesia                                      Dr. T. Sudaryanto, CASER,
1355 - 1435 Bangladesh                                    Dr. BAA Mustafi, BRRI/
                                                           M.Hossain, IRRI

1435 - 1515 Philippines                                    Dr. B. Tolentino, Consultant,
                                                           DAR, Philippines

1515 - 1530 C O F F E E B R E A K

1530 - 1615 Vietnam                                        Mr. Que/Dr. C.T. Hoanh

1615 - 1700 Thailand                                        Dr. S. Isvilanonda, Kasetsart

1700          End of day 1


Tuesday, 4 December 2001

Session 3
0815 - 0855 Taiwan                                                Dr. M. Gemma, Waseda
                                                                   University, Tokyo
0855 - 0935 Malaysia                                              Dr. Arefin, MARDI/ SP Kam,IRRI

0935 - 1015 South Korea                                           Dr. M. Gemma, Waseda Unv,
                                                                  Tokyo, Japan

1015 - 1030               COFFEE BREAK

Part II. Thematic Issues on the Future Development of the Rice Sector

Session 4 - A look at the World Rice Market
1030 - 1110 Long-term Outlook of Rice Supply and Demand
             Balances in South, Southeast and East Asia
                                                                   Dr. M. Sombilla
1110 - 1150 Changes in the Structure of the
            International Rice Market                              Dr. D. Dawe

1200 - 1300 L U N C H B R E A K ( E X E C U T I V E D I N N I N G R O O M )

Session 5 - Assessing the Potentials of Rice Production
1315 - 1345 Comparative Advantage of Rice
             Cultivation in India                                  Dr.B. Bagchi,BKV/ M. Hossain
1345 - 1415 Comparative Advantage of Rice
             Cultivation in Sri Lanka                              Dr. M. Kikuchi
1415-1445 Comparative Advantage of Rice
             Cultivation in Bangladesh                             Dr. Q. Shahabudin, BIDS/
                                                                    M. Hossain,IRRI

1445-1515 Comparative Advantage of Rice
          Cultivation in the Philippines                      Dr. J. Estudillo, Japan

1515 -1530 C O F F E E B R E A K

Session 6 – Environmental sustainability in rice production
1530-1610 Total Factor Productivity and its Components
             in High Potential Rice Wheat System - A Case
             Study of Indian Punjab                           Dr. J. Singh, PAU,
1610-1650     Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production:
              The Case of Indonesia                        Dr. N. Wada/
                                                           Dr. W. Falcon

1700          End of day 2

Wednesday,5 December 2001

0800 - 0830         Picture taking of all participants

Session 7 – Implications for Rice Research Strategy and Priorities
0830 – 1030        Panel discussion                            Dr. R. Wang, Chair
                   Member of the panel:
                   Dr. R. Barker, Dr. J. Huang,
                   Dr. M. Hossain, and Dr. Mritunjaya

1030 – 1045         Concluding remarks                        Dr. R. Wang

Note: Each speaker is given 10 minutes for Q&A

Participants                                 Dr. R. Radhakrishna
Bangladesh                                   Indira Gandhi Institute of Development
Dr. BAA Mustafi,                             Gen. Vaidya Marg, Goregaon (E)
Head, Agricultural Economics                 Mumbai 400 065, India
Division, BRRI,                              Fax: (91-22) 8402752/840 2026
Joydebpur, Dhaka.
                                             Dr. Joginder Singh
Dr. Quazi Shahabudin                         Head, Department of Economics and
Bangladesh Institute of Development          Sociology
Studies                                      Punjab Agricultural University
IRRI G.P.O. Box 64, Ramna,                   Ludhiana - 141004, Punjab
Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh                        India
Fax: (880-2) 8825341                         Fax: (91-161) 400945
Email:                      Email:

Mr. Ahsanul Kabir
Joint Secretary (Research)                   Indonesia
Ministry of Agriculture
Government of Bangladesh                     Dr. Joko Budianto
Dhaka, Bangladesh                            Director General
Fax: 88-02 8617040                           Agency for Agricultural Research &
                                             Development (AARD)
                                             J1. Raya Ragunan No. 29, Pasarminggu,
China                                        Jakarta Selatan 12540, Indonesia
                                             Fax: (62-21) 7800644
Dr. Jikun Huang
Director                                     Dr. Tahlim Sudaryanto
Chinese Center for Agricultural Policy       CASER
30 Baishiqiao Road                           J1.A Yani No. 70, Bogor
Beijing, 100081, China                       Indonesia
Fax 86 (10) 64856533                         Fax: 62 (0251) 314496
Email:               Email:

Dr. Mritunjaya
Director, National Centre for Agricultural   Dr. Jonna Estudillo
Economics & Policy Research (NCAP)           GRIPS/FASID Joint Graduate Program
Library Avenue, New Delhi                    National Graduate Institute
110 012, India                                for Policy Studies
Fax: (91-11) 5731978                         2-2 Wakamatsu-cho, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 162
                                             8677, Japan
Dr. Praduman Kumar                           Tel: 81-3-3341-0478
Principal Scientist                          Fax: 81-3 3341-1030
Indian Agricultural Research                 Email:
New Delhi, 110012, India
Fax: 91 (11) 5766420

Dr. Masao Kikuchi                        Dr. Bruce Tolentino
Department of Agricultural Economics     Grains Policy Specialist,
Faculty of Horticulture                  Team Leader, ADB-DA-DOF Technical
Chiba University                             Assistance Project
Matsudo, Chiba 271-8510, Japan           3rd floor ATI bldg
Fax: (81) 47-308-8926                    Elliptical Road, Quezon City
                                         Sri Lanka
Dr. Toshiyuki Kako
Professor                                Dr. Randolph Barker
Faculty of Agriculture                   IWMI-HQ
Kobe University                          127, Sunil Mawatha
Rokkodaicho 1, Nadaku                    Pellawatte, Bataramulla, Sri Lanka
Kobe - City 657, Japan                   Tel: +94-1-867404
Tel/Fax: 078-803-5838                    Email:
Dr. Masahiko Gemma
Professor                                Dr. Somporn Isvilanonda
School of Social Sciences                Department of Agricultural & Resource
Waseda University                        Economics
1-6-1 Nishi-Waseda                       Faculty of Economics
Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan                Kasetsart University
Tel 81-3-5286-1428                       Bangkok 10900,Thailand
Fax 81-3-3204-8962                       Fax: 66 (2) 5798547
email:             Email:

                                         Ms. Margaret C. Yoovatana
Malaysia                                 Planning and Technical Division
                                         Department of Agriculture
Dr. Araffin bin Tawang                   Paholyothin Road, Chatuchak
Deputy team Leader                       Bangkok 10900, Thailand
(Agricultural Economics)
Malaysian Agricultural Research &        USA
 Development Institute
G.P.O Box 12301, 50774                   Dr. Walter P. Falcon
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia                   Center for Environmental Science and Policy
Fax: 603-948-6799/3664                   Room 404E, Encina Hall
Email:                   Stanford University
                                         Stanford CA, 94305 6055
                                         Tel: 1-650-725-1496
Philippines                              Fax: 1-650-725-1992
Dr. Segfredo R. Serrano
OIC, Office of the Undersecretary for    Dr. Nikolas Wada
Policy Planning and Research             International Food Policy Research Institute
Department of Agriculture                2033 K Street, N.W.
Quezon City                              Washington D.C. 20006-1002, USA
Fax: (044) 8435122/456-0647              Tel: (202) 862-5666
                                         Fax: (202) 467 - 4439


Dr. Bui Chi Buu
Cuu Long Delta Rice Research Institute
O Mon, Can Tho, Vietnam
Tel: (84) 71-861.954
Fax: (84) 71-822.101 or 861.457

Mr. Nguyen Ngoc Que
Information Center for Agriculture
 and Rural Development (ICARD)
02 Ngoc Ha, Ba Dinh, Ha Noi, Vietnam
Fax: 84-4-8230.381

IRRI Participants

Dr. D. Dawe
Dr. S.P. Kam
Dr. C.T. Hoanh
Dr. M. Hossain
Dr. M.A. Sombilla


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