Electrical Energy Sector in Turkey

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Electrical Energy Sector in Turkey Powered By Docstoc
					               Budak Dilli,
  General Directorate of Energy Affairs
Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources-
                 Turkey
TURKEY:
Main Characteristics Of Energy Sector
     High demand increase rate
     High investment requirement
     Import Dependency
     High Energy Intensity
     Low Efficiency

   High efficiency gain potential
   Considerable potential of renewable sources
   Emerging Market




                                                  2
TURKEY –
Primary Energy Demand Projection

  250000
           1000 TOE



  200000



                                                                             51000
  150000




  100000                                                                     61000
             25000
   50000    31000
                                                                             80000
            24000
      0
      2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

           Coal       Petrol   N. Gas   Hydro   Other Renewables   Nuclear

     Rate of increase % 6,2         90 Mtep                  222 Mtep
                                                                                        3
INCREASING CONSUMPTION
                                  OC
                     18.000.000

                AR   16.000.000        ġUB

                     14.000.000
                                                          2002
                     12.000.000

                     10.000.000
          KAS                                MART
                      8.000.000
                                                          2003
                      6.000.000

                      4.000.000

                      2.000.000
                                                          2004
     EK                      0                      NĠS




                                                          2005


           EY                                MAY
                                                          2006



                                                          2007
                AĞ                     HAZ


                              TEM
                                                                 4
                                                                                              ELECTRICAL CONSUMPTION                                                                                                                                               R² = 0.92
        19,000,000
            AYLIK TÜKETİM (MWh)

        18,000,000


        17,000,000


        16,000,000


        15,000,000


        14,000,000


        13,000,000


        12,000,000


        11,000,000


        10,000,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2
         9,000,000


         8,000,000
                                              1999                                   2000                          2001                                                           2003                                                                                           2006
                            1998                                                                                                                 2002                                                           2004                          2005                                                             2007                          2008

         7,000,000
                                                            TEMMUZ


                                                                            OC2000




                                                                                                          OC2001




                                                                                                                                        OC2002




                                                                                                                                                                      OC2003




                                                                                                                                                                                                    OC2004




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  OC2005




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                OC2006




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              OC2007




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            OC2008
                                        EK
                     OC98




                                             OC99
                                  TEM




                                                                                             TEM




                                                                                                                           TEM




                                                                                                                                                         TEM




                                                                                                                                                                                       TEM




                                                                                                                                                                                                                     TEM




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   TEM




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 TEM




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               TEM




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             TEM
                            NİS




                                                    NİSAN


                                                                     EKİM


                                                                                     NİSAN


                                                                                                   EKİM


                                                                                                                   NİSAN


                                                                                                                                 EKİM


                                                                                                                                                 NİSAN


                                                                                                                                                               EKİM


                                                                                                                                                                               NİSAN


                                                                                                                                                                                             EKİM


                                                                                                                                                                                                             NİSAN


                                                                                                                                                                                                                           EKİM


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           NİSAN


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         EKİM


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         NİSAN


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       EKİM


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       NİSAN


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     EKİM


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     NİSAN


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   EKİM
AYLAR

                                                                                         gerçekleşen aylık tüketim                                                       Poly. (gerçekleşen aylık tüketim)
                                                Electricity Demand
                           Income Elasticity – European Countries
                         100000
consumption per capita
    [kWh / capita ]




                                                                        R2 = 0,7583


                         10000




                                                  Turkey
                          1000                    2005     2020
                                  1                 10                                100
                                      GDP/capita [1000 US$ / capita ]
 TURKEY-
Electrical Energy Demand Projection
(2006-2020)
 600
         TWh
                                                                 499
 500                   High Case         Low Case

                                                                              406
 400
                                              356

                                                           294
 300
                      242
                                   216
 200     174,2


 100


   0
       YIL     2006         2010                    2015               2020
                                                                                    7
    TURKEY:
    ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION COMPARISON
    (2001-2006)


   120
         %
                                                  97,6
   100

    80

    60
                                 43,4
    40
                                                             27,2       27,6
                        22,1
    20                                    11,4
           9,5    8,2

     0
          OECD    EU    DÜNYA   TÜRKİYE   RUSYA   ÇİN     HİNDİSTAN BREZİLYA

(Kaynak: IEA)                                        Enerji İşleri Genel Müdürlüğü
                                                                                 8
                                                                                                         % DeğiĢim




                                                                  - 20.0
                                                                                     0.0
                                                                                           20.0
                                                                                                  40.0
                                                                                                         60.0
                                                                                                                80.0
                                                                                                                         100.0
                                                                                                                                 120.0
                                                                                                                                         140.0
                                                                                                                                                 160.0
                                                                           İşviçre
                                                                      Norveç
                                                               Macaristan
                                                               Danimarka
                                                                            İsveç
                                                        Rusya Federasyonu
                                                                    Kanada
                                                                  Japonya
                                                                   Polonya
                                                                                                                                                         CONSUMPTION



                                                                Avusturya
                                                                     Belçika
                                                                              G7
                                                                      Fransa
                                                                 Slovakya
                                                             Yeni Zelanda
                                                                             ABD
                                                                   İngiltere
                                                             OECD toplam
                                                                           AB-15
                                                                 Hollanda
                                                                            İtalya
                                                                Finlandiya
                                                              Güney Afrika
                                                                   Portakiz
                                                                Avustralya
                                                          Çek Cumhuriyeti
                                                               Yunanistan
                                                                  Meksika
                                                                   Brezilya
                                                                                                                                                         1994-2004 % INCREASE IN ELECTRICAL ENERGY




                                                                      İrlanda
    1970:app.2000 MW -TODAY: 43000 MW, 1400 MW / YEAR



                                                                    İspanya
                                                                 Hindistan
                                                                     İzlanda
                                                                     Türkiye
                                                                                                                       92.4




                                                                            Kore
9




                                                                              Çin
Electricity
  New capacity requirement (2020)
                                         Installed capacity in 2020
                             120000
                                      Additional Capacity (MW)
                                      Existing Capacity (MW)
                                                                      96 348 MW
                             100000

High scenario                              80 029 MW
                             80000

• ~ 56.000 MW additional                                              55348
                                         39029
  capacity need              60000




                             40000

Low scenario
                             20000       41000                        41000

• ~ 40.000 MW
                                 0

  additional capacity need            Low Demand                 High Demand




                                                                                  10
GAS SECTOR
 Natural Gas ConsumpNatural Gas Consumption in 2007: 35,5 bcm
 tion Forecast for 2008: 37,5 bcm

                                            Russia(West)
                                               50,1%


       Nigeria
        4,7%




      Algeria
       14,6%



                                              Russia(Blue Stream)
                       Iran
                                                       14,6%
                      16,0%
Investments in Energy Sector
 Estimation up to 2020:

   Power Generation, Transmission, Distribution   ~100
    Billion $
   Natural Gas…………………………...2,5 Billion $
   Coal…………………………………….5 Billion $
   Petroleum……………………………..16 Billion $
 New Power plants, rehabilitation, Pipelines, Natural
  gas storage…


                                                          12
          Prospects for Gas Demand
                 60


                 40
          mtoe

                 20


                  0
                        2005         2010         2020

     Power             12,31         17,3         26,51
     Industry           6,04         11,79        13,65
     Residential        3,97         7,82         11,12


Major Challenge: securıty of supply, sufficient gas suppy
POLICIES
 Energy security
      New investments to cope with increasing demand
      Reduce import dependency, diversification
      Increase the utilisation of Local Sources
      Establishing Functioning markets based on competition

 Environmental sustainability :
    Renewable Energy: Wind, Hydro, Geothermal, Solar, Biofuels
    Clean Coal Technologies, Carbon Capture & Storage

 Efficiency Increase
 Nuclear Energy (5000 MW until 2020)

UNFCC (Turkey became a Party in 2004)

                                                               14
       MILESTONES OF THE TURKISH ELECTRICITY MARKET
                         REFORM
                              Electricity                                    Finalization
              BOT                                 Strategy
              Law              Market              Paper
                                                                            of generation
              (No    BOO         Law                                         privatization
Law          3996)    Law     (No 4628) Communique BSR
                                                                  Cash
 No                   (No                regarding the
                                           Financial           settlement
3096                 4283)                Settlement




                             Establishment
                                of EMRA                                  Start of
                                                                      distribution     Market
                                                     Market
                                                                      privatization    opening
                                                     opening
                                                      29 %                              100 %
Electricity Energy Supply Chain under the
Liberal Market Conditions
   Monopoly activities subject to regulations

               Transmission and system facilities                                 Distribution

                           - TEİAŞ                                      - Regional Distribution Companies




 Competitive Market
                                                          Retail Sale            Retail Sale Market         Small Consumers

        Production            Wholesale Market

                                                       Major Consumers
-EÜAŞ-Hydro
                             - TETAŞ
-Portfolio Companies                                                                                        - Non eligible
                             - Private Wholesale                                     - Retail sale
- IPP                        Companies              - Regional Distribution                                 consumers
                                                    Companies                        companies
- Autoproducers &
Autoproducer groups                                 -Autoproducers facilities
                                                    -Eligible consumers
                                                    - Consumers directly
                                                    connected to
                                                    transmission system
Evolution of the Wholesale Market
                  Bilateral contracting
              supplemented by Balancing and Settlement Regime




   December             August
                                             starting
     2003               2006                                    Future
                                             by 2009
                                               Electricity Market

 Breakdown of installed capacity by generators (2007)
                                                          TOOR
                                                          1,6%

                                                                 BOT
                                                                          IPP
                                                                 6,0%
                                                                         9,0%



                                                                         Mobile
                                                                         0,6%
           EUAS                            Private
           58,9%                           41,1%
                                                                   Autoproducer
                                                                       8,9%




                                                                  BOO
                           TOTAL                 40.755          15,0%
                   TOTAL           41 GW


Ongoing studies for privatisation of distribution and generation
  Amendment to the Electricity Market
                                 Law

 Enhancing the Security of Supply

   Improving the monitoring & evaluation
   mechanism

   Further improving the investment climate on
   generation side

   Capacity mechanisms

   Optional tendering
     NEW INVESTMENT : LICENCED PROJECTS

                          TOTAL: 23078 MW (MARCH 2008)
     20000
             TTOAL:17766 MW
     18000
                                                              THERMAL
     16000

     14000         8171

     12000
MW




     10000
                                                              HYDRO
      8000
                                            TOTAL:5312 MW
      6000         7560
                                                   1672
      4000

                                                   1984
      2000                                                    WIND
                   2035                            1656
        0
                LICENCED                     TO BE LICENCED

                                                                     20
NEW PROJECTS, EXPECTED COMMISSIONING YEARS

4500


4000
       MW
                                                 THERMAL
3500
                            1372

3000
                     881

2500

                                                 HYDRO
2000
                                   745
1500
                            2633
              414    2385
                                           0
1000
       331
              577                  1354          WIND
 500   121                                1134

       484    370
  0                   14     0      0      0
       2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013


                                                         21
Renewables
 Second largest contributor to the primary production
 In 2007 11% of TPES was supplied from renewable sources
20% of total electricity production was from renewable
  sources (43736 GWh) (2006 : 25 %)
 Aim: to keep and further increase renewable share in
  energy balance
   (80 % increase in supply from renewables until 2020 )
    Utilization of the remaining hydro resources until 2023
     –   37 % being utilized at present, 18% under construction (Total
         35000 MW, Today 13000 MW)
    > 20 000 MW Additional Wind (Today 350 MW, 1000
     MW under Construction))
                                                                     22
 Energy Efficiency
 Energy conservation potential up to the 30% was defined in end use
  sectors.
 Energy Efficiency Law was adopted in the Turkish Grand National
  Assembly,
    To increase the energy efficiency awareness through media, training in
     schools, contest, informative billing etc.
    To set up administrative structure and mechanism for energy efficiency
     services
    To promote the energy services activities in the market
    To promote renewables and cogeneration for the protection environment
     (Cogeneration installed capacity: 4476 MW, i.e. 11% of total installed capacity as of
     April 2007.)
    Incentives and obligations to decrease energy intensity
    Demand side measures , incentives
    Measures for production & supply
                                                                                             23
             Interconnection with UCTE




Technical studies approved by UCTE in April 2007.
Ongoing studies for “Improvement of Frequency Control Performance”
Oil And Gas Transit




                      25

				
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posted:7/25/2011
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