Slide 1 - Global Finance by qingyunliuliu


									               Country Risk Analysis:

Ceram-Global Finance Chair   Last updated on: 14 April, 2004
I.      Country Overview
II.     Political, Social and Legal Analysis
III.    Macro Economic Analysis
IV.     Balance of Payment Analysis
V.      Debt Stock and Flows Analysis
VI.     Ratings and Rankings
VII.    SWOT analysis
VIII.   Conclusion

                        Ceram-Global Finance Chair
I.   Country Overview
      Introduction

      Historical

      Natural Resources

          Ceram-Global Finance Chair
   Capital:                 Ulaanbaatar
   Territory:               1,566,000 sq km
   Climate:                 Sharp continental, marked by
                             4 seasons
   Population:              2.6 million
   People:                  Khalkh Mongols (86%),
                             Kazaks (6%), Chinese (2%),
                             Russian (2%)
   Lang uage:               Mongolian
   Religions:               Tibetan Buddhism
   Currency:                Tugrik (MNT)
   Exchange rate:           11,03 MNT per US$ (04/2004)
                             1315 MNT per Euro (04/2004)
   GDP per capita:          440US$ (2002)

                      Ceram-Global Finance Chair
   On 1 December 1911, independence from Manchu was declared, with
    a theocratic government under the leadership of the 8th Jebtzun
   On 26 November 1924, the Mongolian People's Republic (MPR) was
   Before 1990, the country was under one socialist party’s rule and
    influenced by Russian leaders.
   After 1990 the country has become democratic and has started the
    transition period from planned economy to market economy.
   1992 Dec 12: Democratic Constitution

                           Ceram-Global Finance Chair
Natural resources
   The country is rich in mineral resources: coal, copper, molybdenum,
    uranium, gold, iron, phosphates, tin, nickel, zinc, wolfram and
    fluorspar and crude oil.

   Mongolia has over 30 million heads of livestock, thus ranking first in
    per capita ownership, including 13,8 million sheep, 10,2 million
    goats, 3,1 million cattle, 2,6 million horse and 322,3 thousand
    Bactrian camels which provide high-quality agro-processing raw

   The pristine and unpolluted nature and the environment are yet
    another wealth of Mongolians.

                            Ceram-Global Finance Chair
II. Political, Social and Legal
       Governance

       Political

       Social Analysis

       Legal Analysis

            Ceram-Global Finance Chair
•Political system:            Parliamentary Republic

•Legislature:                 Parliament, Ikh Hural,
                              with 76 seats, elected for
                                    four years

•Head of the State:           President elected for four

•Government:                  Prime Minister appointed by
                                   Ikh Hural for four years

                      Ceram-Global Finance Chair
Structure of Governance
   President
        President
        National Security Council of Mongolia
        State Commission on Management and Organization Rehabilitation Political
   Parliament
        Parliament National Audit Office
        National Statistical Office
        Bank of Mongolia
        Government Service Council of Mongolia
        Mongolian Securities and Exchange Commission
        National Human Rights Commission of Mongolia
        Constitutional Court of Mongolia
   Supreme Court
        Supreme Court
        State General Prosecutors Office
   Provinces
        3 big cities incl. capital
        22 provinces

                                      Ceram-Global Finance Chair
Political forces
   President
   Prime Minister
   Political Parties
     Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party
     Mongolian Democratic Party

   Parliament “Great Khural“ dominated by MPRP

                        Ceram-Global Finance Chair
  Social analysis
                    2002                             Mongolia   East Asia   Low
                                                                & Pacific   income
Population (mil)                                     2.4        1.838       2.495

Average annual growth 1996-2002 (%)
-Population                                          1.0        1.0         1.9
-Labour Force                                        1.8        1.2         2.3
Urban population (% of population)                   57         38          30
Life expectancy at birth (years)                     65         69          59
Infant mortality (per 1000 live birth)               59         33          81
HDI (2003)                                           0.66
Literacy (% of population age 15+)                   1          13          37
Gross primary enrolment (% of school-age
population)                                          99         106         95
-Male                                                97         105         103
-Female                                              101        106         87

                                 Ceram-Global Finance Chair
Legal analysis
   After 1990, most of laws are “new” in accordance with
    transformation to democracy
   Blend of Soviet, German, and US systems of law that
    combines aspects of a parliamentary system with some
    aspects of a presidential system
       constitution ambiguous on judicial review of legislative acts
       has not accepted compulsory ICJ jurisdiction

                             Ceram-Global Finance Chair
III. Macro economy
 Overview
     Infrastructure,            employment
     GDP
     Inflation
     Exchange  Rate
     Savings & Investment

 Economic Structure & Sector
 Trade Strengths and
          Ceram-Global Finance Chair
Overview of economy
   A small landlocked economy
   In transition period from planned economy to market
    economy since 1990
   Reasonable macroeconomic stability in 2002
   Highly vulnerable to natural adversities and price
    volatility in world commodity markets
   Mongolia’s per capita income is $451 and 36% of its
    population live below the poverty line
   Deteriorating performance of the agriculture sector has
    been one of the factors hindering economic growth
   GDP growth excluding agriculture grew 9.4% in 2002
   Inequity growth of spatial and income distributions in
    rural and urban areas
                        Ceram-Global Finance Chair
   Fuel and Energy:
       Generated from mostly coal
   Telecommunications:
       Satellite systems
       Mobile phone users: 256/1000 in 2002
       Phone lines: 126/1000 in 2002
       Cheaper postal services
   Transportation:
       the auto-transportation, rails, air-transportation and a small fleet
        of cargo boats operates on some small lakes
   Media:
       Nation-wide public and private TVs and Radio
       Increasing number of internet users: 8/1000 in 2002
                             Ceram-Global Finance Chair
 Employment (1000 persons)
                                                       Most population is
                                                      employed in
                                                      agriculture, precisely
                                                      breeding livestock
                                                       Labour productivity
                                                      is very low

Source: UNDP, Mongolia   Ceram-Global Finance Chair
                                                       Unemployment is
                                                       However,
                                                      unemployed people
                                                      never register as
                                                      People who
                                                      employed by
                                                      informal sector is
                                                      counted as
                                                      unemployed =>
                                                      biased statistics

Source: UNDP, Mongolia   Ceram-Global Finance Chair
 GDP US$ million                       (at current market price)
  Some experts have suggested that a 1.0 percent increase of
  world market prices causes a 0.15 percent slump in the country's

Source: CBM, IMF         Ceram-Global Finance Chair
                                                         Economy is
                                                        stabilizing after

 GDP growth
                                                        the slowdown
                                                        Sharp growth
    • Real rising GDP growth with stable prices         between 2001
                                                        and 2004

Source: CBM, IMF           Ceram-Global Finance Chair
     1992: 325.5
     1993: 183
                                                • In recent years, as
                                                a result of successful
                                                implementation of the
                                                monetary and
                                                financial policies, the
                                                inflation declined to
                                                one-digit level (1.6%
                                                - 2002)

                                                •Under “control”

Source: CBM        Ceram-Global Finance Chair
   The inflation rate was stable at around 8.0 percent in 2000 and
   In 2002, it fell to 1.6 percent - the lowest since 1991.
   In July 2003, prices have risen by 6.5 percent compared with the
    same period of the previous year, and had risen by 5.2 percent
    compared to the end of 2002.
   However, interest rates remain strikingly high and the supply of
    credit remains limited.
   The substantial growth in money supply has not been accompanied
    by inflationary outcomes.
   This suggests that monetary policy is too restrictive.

                          Ceram-Global Finance Chair
 Exchange rate                      MNT vs. US$
 •Appreciating Mongolian Togrog is not remedy for the trade deficit

                 1993: Free
               exchange rate

                                                         • Although local currency
                                                         is appreciating, export can
                                                         not become more
Source: CBM, ADB            Ceram-Global Finance Chair
 Savings & Investment                      as % of GDP
                                               Savings come
                                               from government
                                               In contrast,
                                               investment is made
                                               by private sector
                                               Gradually, both
                                               savings/GDP &
                                               investment/GDP will
                                               rise as projected
                                               growth has been
                                               more dramatic than

Source: IMF   Ceram-Global Finance Chair
Macro Economy summary
   Although Mongolia is at the same level with other transition
    countries according to the main macroeconomic indicators, it tends
    to have a drag on real growth due to unfavourable weather
   In 2002, owing to the recovery signs of the industrial sector, real
    GDP growth reached to 3.9 percent with an increase of 2.9 points
    from 2001.
   In order to promote less nature and weather dependent
    employment and to expand the variety of export items, it is vital to
    develop the tourism, IT, and mining sectors

                            Ceram-Global Finance Chair
 Economic structure and sector
                                            The composition of
                                           GDP has undergone a
                                           change between 1995
                                           and 2003
                                            Agriculture’s output
                                           is only 20% of GDP,
                                           but it employs around
                                           60% of economically
                                           active population
                                            Services sector is
                                           playing more
                                           important role in the
Source: ADB   Ceram-Global Finance Chair
 Sector growth trend (%)
• Unsatisfactory growth & high volatile in growth of each sector

                                                    • Services sectors
                                                    have seen dramatic
                                                    growth in 2000
                                                    • Drop in growth
                                                    was affected by
                                                    natural disaster
                                                    • Industry growth is
                                                    dependent on

Source: ADB            Ceram-Global Finance Chair
 GDP by industrial origin
                                            Trade mostly
                                           contributes to
                                           GDP, however
                                           its growth is
                                           during past
                                            Agriculture
                                           accounts for
                                           20% of GDP

Source: ADB   Ceram-Global Finance Chair
   Main products:                                There are important links
       wheat, barley, forage                      between the agricultural and
        crops, oats & vegetables                   industrial sectors, with
                                                   agriculture providing the inputs
   Livestock:                                     to many manufacturing
       sheep, goats, cattle,                      activities, including leather and
        camels, horses                             shoe manufacturing, wool
                                                   processing and cashmere
   Exports:
       Milk, cashmere, wool, meat

                                Ceram-Global Finance Chair
   Mining:                                      Manufacturing:
       Copper (80%)                                   Cement
       Lignite & brown coal                           Meat
       Coal                                           Sawn wood (coniferous)
       salt                                           Wheat flour

                               Ceram-Global Finance Chair
   This sector has seen a continuing decline throughout
    1990s, except for modest gains in 1998. This decline is
    mainly in reaction to the decline in international prices
    for basic metals thereby affecting the mining industry.
   However, 2001 saw an increase in production especially
    the agro-industry sector, e.g. cashmere, scoured wool,
    leather boots, etc. Overall manufacturing industry
    production increased by 22.7%.
   Mongolia now needs to concentrate on the development
    of the manufacturing sub-sectors that utilize minerals
    and primary agriculture products

                        Ceram-Global Finance Chair
   The service sector has been more volatile in the past
    several years than before, due to a shift in the
    importance of its various components.
   Since 1997, the banking sector has experienced a
    decline in its contribution to domestic production while
    other sectors such as transport, communications, and
    construction increased or maintained their respective
    share of GDP
   Tourism sector is developing

                        Ceram-Global Finance Chair
Sector analysis summary
   Growth in recent years has been spurred by the
    mining sector.
   Unfortunately mining sector has little potential
    for generating employment, though it does
    boost opportunities for mobilizing additional
    taxes and stimulating activities in the service

                     Ceram-Global Finance Chair
 Trade balance (mil US$)

 •1998 Asian crisis & 1999 Russian crisis contributed to trade deficit
 •1999 fall in the value of the togrog against the US dollar helped to
 improve the balance of trade
 • 2002 trade balance worsened due to lower copper prices and
 textile exports
Source: ADB, IMF             Ceram-Global Finance Chair
 Export: Partners
                                                    •There are 43
                                                    countries exports to
                                                81% • However, export
                                                    market is
                                                    concentrated in 3
                                                    countries only
                                                    • Russia was a main
                                                    partner before 1990

Source: ADB, IMF   Ceram-Global Finance Chair
 Export: Commodities
                                                • As of today, nearly 90 per
                                                cent of exported goods are
                                                in hard currency
                                                • Most of exports are
                                                composed in raw materials
                                                such as copper, cashmere &
                                                • Vulnerable to falls in world
                                                market prices
                                                • A narrow range of
                                                specialized goods
                                                • Mongolia accounts for
                                                30% of world cashmere
                                                production-textiles, and
                                                meat and meat products
Source: ADB, IMF   Ceram-Global Finance Chair
 Import: Origin
                                                     • 67 countries
                                                     import to Mongolia
                                                75% • Import origin is not

                                                     • Mongolia is lacking
                                                     in freight due
                                                     landlocked position &
                                                     low infrastructure

Source: ADB, IMF   Ceram-Global Finance Chair
 Import: Commodities
                                                • Oil is a main product
                                                (90% of ) in minerals
                                                • Russia is a main
                                                supplier of oil

Source: ADB, IMF   Ceram-Global Finance Chair
 Trade Openness

Source: ADB, IMF   Ceram-Global Finance Chair
Trade openness comparison among
Asian countries 2003

           Ceram-Global Finance Chair
Trade strengths & weaknesses
   One of few cashmere exporter            Export is not diversified
    in the world                            Economy is very dependent on
                                            trade
                                            Partners are concentrated on
                                             few countries
                                            Vulnerable to falls in world
                                             market prices
                                            A narrow range of specialized
                                            Most of exports are composed
                                             in raw materials such as
                                             copper, cashmere & wool

                          Ceram-Global Finance Chair
Economic Policies
   Fiscal Policy
   Monetary Policy
   Reform Policies

           Ceram-Global Finance Chair
  Fiscal Policy                                                In 2003 (% of GDP)
                                                              Financing deficit= -6.1%
                                                                 Domestic: 5.1%
                                                                 Foreign: 1.0%
                                                              Public Debt
                                                                 Domestic: 0.2%
                                                                 Foreign: 87.7%
                                                              Revenues=35.8%
                                                                 Domestic: 35.1%
                                                                      Tax: 27.1%
                                                                      Non-tax: 8.0%
                                                                 Foreign: 0.7%
                                                              Expenditures=41.9%
                                                                 Current: 32.4%
                                                                 Capital: 9.5%
 Deficit financed domestically

Source: ADB, IMF, CBM         Ceram-Global Finance Chair
 Monetary Policy
                                     Tools of Bank of Mongolia
                                           Tight monetary policy
                                              To restrict sharp growth
                                               of reserve money
                                           Central Bank Bills (CBB)
                                           Reserve Requirement
                                           Credit control

Source: ADB, IMF   Ceram-Global Finance Chair
Reform Policy
   Market-led system
       A rapid transition: 1990
          "shock therapy“ - privatisation, currency reform, and price
           and wage liberalisation
       In 1991 Mongolia joined
          the World Bank,

          the IMF and

          the Asian Development Bank (ADB), which agreed to help
           the country to overcome the difficulties of loss of Soviet aid,
           and guaranteed deliveries and external markets
   Privatization – 2001 Jan
       Large state companies through competitive tenders

                            Ceram-Global Finance Chair
Reform Policy
   Major tax reforms:
       1997: New income tax rates and a simplified and progressive
        business tax were introduced. Most customs tariffs were
       1998: On July 1st a value-added tax was introduced at 10%, but
        it was quickly raised to 13% in an attempt to close the
        government's widening budget deficit. A 10% gold tax was
        imposed on November 6th
       1999: Customs duty on all imported goods, except medical
        equipment, was reinstated at 10%
   1997 WTO member

                           Ceram-Global Finance Chair
   Current Account Balance
   Capital Account Balance
     FDI
     ODA

   Conclusion

            Ceram-Global Finance Chair
 Balance of Payment

                                            Current account
                                           balance is
                                            However, capital
                                           account surplus
                                           leading to overall
                                           positive balance

Source: IMF   Ceram-Global Finance Chair
 Current Account
                                            Current
                                           deficit is
                                           larger than
                                           trade deficit
                                            Both
                                           balance will
                                           be improved
                                           according to

Source: IMF   Ceram-Global Finance Chair
 Capital Account 2002
      81.2 US$ million
                                                           Medium & long
                       Currency & deposits (net)          term loans =>
                       Trade credit (net)

                               Short term capital (net)

     Medium and long
     term loan (net)


Source: IMF            Ceram-Global Finance Chair
 FDI inflows
FDI - low compared to the other transition economies, which is related to
the size of the economy and ability to absorb

                                                         2001: FDI
                                                        increased by 38%,
                                                        number of
                                                        companies raised
                                                        20% respectively.
                                                         Among them 84%
                                                        or 97.1 million USD
                                                        invested by the
                                                        leading 27 big

Source: FIFTA, Mongolia    Ceram-Global Finance Chair
 Structure of investors
                                                        The most foreign
                                                       invested companies
                                                       established mainly
                                                       small or medium
                                                        Foreign investor’s
                                                       interest is growing in
                                                        The big investments
                                                       by international
                                                       companies remained
                                                       in very low level
                                                       excepting merchants
                                                       and dealers

Source: FIFTA, Mongolia   Ceram-Global Finance Chair
 FDI by country origin 2001
                                                        China is the
                                                       main investor
                                                        Its investment
                                                       accounts for 41%
                                                       of total FDI
                                                        FDI origin is not

Source: FIFTA, Mongolia   Ceram-Global Finance Chair
 FDI by sectors 2001
                                                       A: Geological prospecting
                                                       and exploration – 45%
                                                       B: Banking and financial
                                                       services – 16%
                                                       C: Trade and catering
                                                       service – 6%
                                                       D: Engineering
                                                       construction and
                                                       production of building
                                                       materials - 6%
                                                       E: Light industry – 5%
                                                       F: Processing of animal
                                                       originated raw materials
                                                       – 5%
  Half of FDI for mining
                                                       G: Energy – 1%
Source: FIFTA, Mongolia   Ceram-Global Finance Chair
                                                       H: Others – 16%
 ODA        (1991 – 2000 mil USD)
                                                       Mongolia has
                                                      become very
                                                      much dependent
                                                      on foreign aids &
                                                       In the initial
                                                      years, external
                                                      assistance was
                                                      intended to
                                                      soften the
                                                      difficulties of

                                                       Over the
                                                      years, it has
                                                      become more
Source: UNDP, Mongolia   Ceram-Global Finance Chair
 ODA % of GDP
    Ratio is ten times the average for low-income countries

Source: UNDP, Mongolia   Ceram-Global Finance Chair
 ODA by major donors                                  (1991-2002)

           Grants                      Bilateral              Multilateral
           (mil USD)                   loans (mil             loans (mil
                                       USD)                   USD)

Source: UNDP, Mongolia   Ceram-Global Finance Chair
 Errors & Omissions                   < 5% of GDP

Source: IMF   Ceram-Global Finance Chair
Capital flight
                                                            After banking
                                                           crisis &
                                                           bankruptcy of 2
                                                           state banks,
                                                           individuals trust
                                                           have worsened
                                                           => savings

                              March 2004
Source: BIS Quarterly Review, Ceram-Global Finance Chair
BOP summary
   Current account in deficit
   Capital account in surplus => overall positive
   FDI flow is from mainly China
   No more errors & omissions from 2003
   Capital flight to abroad => local investors have
    less trust in economy

                     Ceram-Global Finance Chair
V. Debt flows and stock
   External Debt Stock
   Debt Servicing
   Solvency and Liquidity Rations
   Conclusion

            Ceram-Global Finance Chair
 External Debt Stock
Mongolia - Low income moderate indebted country, WB 2003

Source: IMF          Ceram-Global Finance Chair
 Composition of debt
        Debt 2002: 1037 USD million

Source: WB          Ceram-Global Finance Chair
 External debt/GDP
                                              External Debt
                                               burden is high -
                                               about 90% GDP
                                               (limitation: 30%)

                                              Mongolia is the
                                               ninth most aid-
                                               dependent country
                                               in the world

                                              Debt per head 2003:
                                               US$426 – high!

Source: IMF   Ceram-Global Finance Chair
 External Debt/Gross Official Reserves

               Reserves are not adequate!
Source: IMF               Ceram-Global Finance Chair
 External Debt/XGS & NPV External

                                              Debt/XGS ratio
                                             is much beyond
                                              NPV Debt/XGS
                                             is at favorable
                                             level cause debt
                                             is contracted at
                                             rate below
                                             market level

Source: IMF     Ceram-Global Finance Chair
 Debt service structure

Source: IMF   Ceram-Global Finance Chair
 Debt servicing ratio                  (P+I/XGS; P+I/GDP)

                                                  Debt servicing
                                                 ratio is at low
                                                 level &
                                                 projected to
                                                 decrease slightly

                                                  limitation:

Source: IMF   Ceram-Global Finance Chair
Export growth rate/Average interest rate

                                            Export
                                           growth will
                                           worsen to
                                           5.89 times of
                                           interest rate

              Ceram-Global Finance Chair
 Official Reserves & Import coverage

                                              Reserves:
                                               just more
                                               than 3
                                               months of
                                               imports 
                                               (Security: 12

Source: IMF   Ceram-Global Finance Chair
Debt sustainability summary
   External debt burden is higher

   Solvency ratio is not attractive => Mongolia could
    default on its external debt by 2009

   Mongolia might become one of HIPC

   Reserves are not enough

   Liquidity ratios are favourable

                         Ceram-Global Finance Chair
 VI.   Ratings & Rankings

         Ceram-Global Finance Chair
  Ratings & Rankings (2003)
         Agency                Rating                        Explanation

COFACE (country risk)      D                  The high risk profile of a country's
                                              economic and political environment
                                              will further worsen further a
                                              generally very bad payment record
S&P (long term debt        B                  Sub-investment grade
Freedom house              2                  Free
(political right & civil
Euromoney (country         37.32              Medium high risk
credit worthiness
                                Ceram-Global Finance Chair
    Ratings & Rankings (2003)
                       BradyNet Ratings Ladder* :

* Calculated average rating of the three agencies: Moody's, S&P, and FitchIBCA.
                                 Ceram-Global Finance Chair
Ratings & Rankings (2003)
         Economic Freedom Index by Heritage Foundation

Trade         Government        Foreign               Wages &
           2 Intervention   2.5 Investment        3 Prices       2 Regulation     4

Fiscal        Monetary          Banking &             Property
          4.5 Policy         2 Finance            3 Rights       3 Black Market   3

   Year: 2003                           Rank: 63
   Score: 2.9                           Category: Mostly Free

                             Ceram-Global Finance Chair
VII. SWOT analysis
Strengths:                               Weaknesses:
      Abundant natural resources               Less population
      new emerging market                      Hard climate
      educated labour force                    Few export commodities

      promising mining sector                  domestic market’s
                                                landlocked

Opportunities:                           Threats:
    expanding industrial &                     higher external
   mining production                           indebtedness
    developing tourism sector

                           Ceram-Global Finance Chair
VIII. Conclusion
   Investment recommendations due to newly
    growing opportunities in the following sectors:

     Cashmere:   New technology needed, since cashmere
      is a main export product (raw cashmere exported)
     Mining: need for investment for further development
     Energy: insufficient domestic supply
     Internet: still underdeveloped
     Telecom: very low infrastructure in the countryside
     Banking: is important for the economy
     Tourism: many attractions, untouched nature

                      Ceram-Global Finance Chair
 Country Risk overview
Social & Political stability

Economic growth prospects

Domestic financial stability

External competitiveness

               Ceram-Global Finance Chair
  Country Risk overview (II)

Balance of payments sustainability

Debt servicing capacity

Overall MT perspectives

                  Ceram-Global Finance Chair
   IMF                                Ministry of Finance & Economy
   EIU                                Ministry of Trade &
   COFACE                              infrastructure
   UNCTAD                             Mongol Bank (Central Bank of
   World Bank                          Mongolia)
   ADB                                National Statistical Office of
   UNDP
                                       FIFTA, Mongolia
   CIA
                                       Country Risk Assessment,
   Global Finance                      (Bouchet M., Groslambert B,
                                        Clark E. – Wiley 2003)

                     Ceram-Global Finance Chair

To top