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					To Infinity & Beyond!


        Peter Cochrane
  ConceptLabs CA Co-Founder
      Personal Communication
Wireless communication
Faster & Faster Wealth Generation
 New Company Value


               US$Bn
                     100
                      90                   Internet                  PC
                      80   Mobile
                      70
                      60
                      50
                      40
                      30
                      20
                      10
                       0
                           1   2   3   4    5   6   7   8   9   10

                                           Year
             Raw
                           Manufacture Distribution
            Materials
                                                      R
                                                      E




                               Recycle
                                                      T
Ecosystem                                             A
                                                      I
                                                      L
                   Trash                 Consumer


                   Trash     Consumer
             Raw
                             B-B          B-B
                  B-B Manufacture Distribution
            Materials
                                                      R
                                                      E




                             Recycle
                                                      T
Ecosystem                                             A
                                                      I

                   Trash               C-C
                                       Consumer
                                                   achine
                                                  B-C
                                                      L


                           C-B                    obile
                   Trash    Consumer
2G - A field of dreams…
      Build it and they will come…


                  …& 750M did, just
                  for Voice & SMS
   Communicating on the move…

We value mobility above Quality
We value mobility above Price
Mobility is Personal
Text messaging is about Time Shifting
Data & text are more important than voice
Bandwidth is now the lubricant of our society
                  UK SMS Messages 99
           300

           250

           200
Millions
           150

           100

           50

            0
                 Jan Feb MarAprMayJun Jul AugSep Oct NovDec
          UK SMS Messages
3.5Bn



 Year 2



0.3Bn
Year 1
          UK SMS Messages
12Bn



 Year 3




3.5Bn
 Year 2
 Year 1
3G - A field of dreams…
 Build it and will they come…again?
                    Wire line quality
                    Seamless roaming
                    MP3 Sound Files
                    MPEG Movie Files
                    JPEG Digital Photos
                    On Line Games
                    IP Telephony
                    IP Video Conference
                    IP Radio & TV
                    GPS + TeleCare
                    +++New Markets
Why did WAP fail?
Over-hyped
Overdue
Under performed
    -Slow
    -Limited web access
    -Nothing like a PC
Too complex to engineer
Too complex to use
              Disruptive Technologies

                                        3G
Performance




                                        >>
                                        2G




                                   Time
                                             13
           Powerful mobile devices…
                                                         Machines
                                              0.5 year
                                                     M-Media
                                             1year
                                                      Java
                                  2 years
                                                Internet
                        4 years
                                   Messaging
           5 years
                              Voice
88 89 90    91   92 93 94 95 96   97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
                                    More
                                      Mobile than fixed
                                         Messages the voice
                                              Net purchases than a PC
      A
 small screen
   is not a
BIG SCREEN
Will 3G happen in the EU?

     > 60Bn   = Licence fees
     > 60Bn   = Infrastructure
     > 60Bn   = Development
     >??Bn    = Marketing & Sales

     >200Bn = Total
 Will 3G happen in the EU?

~ £400 per head of population
> 10 years to break even
> 18 months to first chip sets
> 24 months to first sales
> 48 months worst case

Mounting public pressure & changing
government position on masts & towers
      Operator Options?
Merge companies, networks and
operations to offset costs

Load cost onto 2G service
    - More expensive handsets
    - More expensive calls
    - Reduce Quality of Service
    - Reduce customers services
      Operator Options?
Merge companies, networks and
operations to offset costs

Load cost onto 2G service
    - More expensive handsets
    - More expensive calls
    - Reduce Quality of Service
    - Reduce customers services
      Government Options?
Reset the clock
Give the money back

A once vibrant sector has been raped
and may never be the same again

Banks may begin to foreclose on
Mounting debts
    The Only Realistic Option?



Use 3G to wipe out the last/first mile
                 Network Types
 Copper, Fibre, Radio, Optical - Static - Mobile
       Chip    Board          LANs
        to      to Backplanes   WANs             Long
       Chip    Board               MANs          Haul




          Spatial Density            Spectral Density

 1mm          10cm          10m          1km    1000km
       1cm           1m           100m    10km 10000km

Everything is moving toward IP based operations
  3G Threats & Limitations??

Technology options frozen too early
    - Not IP based
    - CDMA is band-limited
    - 2.5G can deliver almost as much
    - 4G coming faster than expected
    - Parasitic networks are far superior
                            Yearly Productivity
                     100
Quantity/Unit Time


                     80

                      70

                     60    BW

                     40         Chip

                      20
                                        SW
                      0
    350% pa      The key constraint?

                 Carrier’s
                     the          150% pa
                 bottleneck
                   35% pa


Wireless WWW                        Devices
                 Infrastructure
Content / Apps
         Extrapolation from 1950s

1T                                      Clock HD

                                               RAM
1G
        Backbone
1M


1K                                  Last/First Mile

 1
 1947   1957   1967   1977   1987    1997   2007
             Office              Network
               &
                           Always On      Dial Up
             Home
                       MStream    Cable    PSTN
100Mbit/s   11Mbit/s              ADSL     Mobile
  LAN        WLAN
                       2Mbit/s   0.5Mbit/s 56kbit/s
                                 256kbit/s 9.6kbit/s
                       Office
                        &
Hard                                        Network
Drives                 Home
          Clock

                  LAN       WLAN      MStream     Cable     PSTN
100,000   1000     100     11Mbit/s
                                                  ADSL      Mobile

MByte     MHz     Mbit/s              2Mbit/s   0.5Mbit/s 56kbit/s
                                                256kbit/s 9.6kbit/s
                       Net Access
Bn
1.6                                   Mobile
1.4                                   phones
1.2             Wired phones                         Mobile
                                                     Phones
1.0
                                                     With web
0.8                                                  access
0.6
0.4                                             PCs
0.2
0.0
      96   97     98   99   00   01   02   03   04
If Telco's sold cars…
Will the Telco/Cable Co’s Deliver?
              They just don’t get it!
              They just don’t have it!
              They don’t want to do it!

NO            They don’t have to do it!
              They can’t do it anyway!!
               Wrong infrastructure
               Wrong mindset
               Mounting debts
 Have we been here before?




YES
 Have we been here before?

          Community Antenna TV
            ABC don’t do terminals

YES         ABC don’t do support
            ABC don’t do delivery
            ABC don’t do networks

           Parasitic Nets - 802.11 et al
Who needs a Telco or Cableco?
PARASITIC NETWORKS
  Zero infrastructure!
PARASITIC NETWORKS
  Zero infrastructure!
PARASITIC NETWORKS
  Zero infrastructure!
PARASITIC NETWORKS
 With mobile base stations!
         PARASITIC NETWORKS
              New modes!
                                   As today




Device
  to
Device
                         Device
                        Repeater
            Broadcast    Device
                 Wireless - the story so far…
3000GHz                                                                                                  0.1mm


 300GHz                                                                                                  1mm
                                                                                         BroadBand
                                                                Military                 Satellite
  30GHz                                          Microwave      Satellite
                                                                                                         1cm
                                                 Antenna
                                                             Marine Satellite          Low-Earth
   3GHz                            Experimental Comm                                   Orbit Satellite
                                                                                                         10 cm
                                   Satellite
                                                         Colour             Cellular
                                                         TV                 Phone
 300MHz                                                                                                  1m
                               Black & White            Walkie-
                               TV                       Talkie
 30 MHz                                                                                                  10 m
            Short wave radio                                         Modern
                                                                     Shortwave                           100m
          1930     1940         1950      1960       1970         1980          1990     2000
FM


                   Opportunity
     TV                          Optical

          Mobile
          Wireless Technologies

     Radio                     Optical

   Regulated                Unregulated
     Secure                 Very secure
Medium-long range           Short range
  Narrowband                Broadband
     Mature                  Immature
 Radiation risk?          No radiation risk
    < 300GHz     Spectrum  > 50,000GHz
          Diffuse Optical
Network           Optical
                  transceiver

                                  Broadband

                                  Mobile

                                  Secure




                                Cell
  TelCo/CableCo Defence

      Mobile
      ISP

  X

Switch
                 Latency

• Network latency should be dominated by
  the speed-of-light delay

• Managed by tight integration of optical
  and electronic technologies,
  architectures, operating systems and
  programming
         Minimising Latency
• provide abundant network bandwidth
• strip out layers and protocols
• minimise network crossings
- ideal: each ‘expedition’=1 crossing + return
• introduce ‘information geography’ (location
   and distance of information) as the key
   parameter in network architecture, operating
   systems and programming
processor   memory              processor   memory




   Current architecture



processor   memory              processor   memory




  Future-matched architecture
   Telephone Network
Random Events + Hierarchy
=> Time + Frequency Aggregation
=> Economy
=> Blocking/Freeze Out

Control - Total - Prescriptive
=> Fixed Bandwidth
=> Low Flexibility
=> Extremely Reliable
=> Reasonably Resilient
=> Fundamentally Unsuited to Data
          Internet
Bursty Events + No Hierarchy
=> Time Aggregation
=> Economy
=> Variable Latency

Control - Little
=> Variable Bandwidth
=> High Flexibility
=> Flaky
=> Infinitely Resilient
=> Fundamentally Unsuited to Speech
         Parasitic Nets
Bursty Events + No Hierarchy
=> Time + Space Aggregation
=> Economy
=> Huge Latency

Control - None
=> Variable Bandwidth
=> Infinite Flexibility
=> Highly Reliable
=> Highly Resilient
=> Fundamentally Unsuited to Real Time
    Established Wisdom

Hardware
   Software
       Network
            Applications
                Convergence??


      I don’t think so….
Planet wide universal access??



      Thank you,

                cochrane.org.uk
                conceptlabs.net

				
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