Obama Election Strategy

							Obama for America

David Plouffe Campaign Manager

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Bush: Kerry:

286 252

Going up on Television Early
Alaska Colorado Georgia Indiana Michigan Iowa Missouri Montana Nevada New Hampshire New Mexico North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Pennsylvania Wisconsin Virginia

Obama Poised to Win Historic Level of Support from Women
Horserace Among Women Exit Polls
80%

Obama vs. McCain

Clinton Margin +16
60%

Gore Margin +11

Kerry Margin +3

Obama Margin +12

Obama Margin +14

Obama Margin +12

Obama Margin +12

Obama Margin +19

Obama Margin +13

54%

54% 43%

51% 48%

54% 42%

50%

52% 40%

52% 40%

52%

52%

40%

38%

36%

39% 33%

20%

0%
1996 2000 2004 May 14 (Battleground) May 18 (Reuters/ Zogby) June 1 (Gallup) June 8 (Rasmussen) June 11 (NBC/WSJ) June 15 (Rasmussen)

5

Obama Holds Dominant Lead Over McCain Among Hispanics, A Key Swing Group
2004: Kerry 53 – Bush 44 2000: Gore 62 – Bush 35
Horserace Among Hispanic Voters
80% Obama 67% 62% 60% 57% 62% McCain

40%

33% 29%

29%

28%

20%

0% May 14 (Battleground) May 18 (Reuters/Zogby) May 31 (Gallup) June 11 (NBC/WSJ)
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Obama Consolidating Democrats as He Builds Strength Among Independents
Horserace by Party
Democrats
80% 69% 60% 44%44% 46% 39% 44% 43% 78% 78% 80%

Independents
Obama McCain

40%

40%

43%

21% 20% 15% 14% 14%

0% May 18* June 8* June10** June 15* May 18* June 8* June 10** June 15*
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*Source: Rasmussen Reports Weekly Tracking **Source: Gallup

Expanding the Map: Turning Red States Blue
Horserace
80%

2004:

Kerry

Bush

2008:

Obama

McCain

Virginia
60%
-8 +7

Missouri
-7 +1

Colorado
-5 +6 -2

Ohio
+11 -1

Iowa
+7

New Mexico
-1 +9

54% 46% 49%

53% 46% 42% 43% 42%

52% 48% 47% 42%

51% 50% 49%

50% 49% 45% 38%

50% 50% 49% 41%

40%

39%

20%

0% 2004
*SurveyUSA **Rasmussen Reports ***PPP 8

May 18*

2004

June 3**

2004

May 19**

2004

June 15***

2004

June 10**

2004

May 14**

Winning in Traditional Battleground States
June 18th Quinnipiac Poll Horserace in Key Battleground States
Obama 80% McCain

FLORIDA

OHIO

PENNSYLVANIA

60% 47% 43% 40% 47% 37% 50% 40% 48% 42% 51% 43%45% 39% 52% 40% 50% 39%

57%

34%

20%

0% Total Indep Women Total Indep Women Total Indep Women
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Source: Quinnipiac Polling, June 16

Unprecedented Grassroots Support

Over 1.7 million total donors
Over 1 million volunteers Over 5 million email subscribers

RNC & McCain Money
Carly Fiorina: “In Truth The RNC Is Raising Money Very Specifically For The Presidential Campaign, And By The Rules The Money That The RNC Raises Can Be Used For The Presidential Campaign. So, It Actually Is Very Relevant To Talk About What The RNC Raises.”
John Roberts: “Let me come back to what you first said which is that the RNC has a lot of cash. It used to be that Republican candidates, the individual campaigns, used to kill the Democrats in individual donations. This year we don't see that. Why?” Carly Fiorina: “Well, I hate to keep correcting you, but in truth the RNC is raising money very specifically for the presidential campaign, and by the rules the money that the RNC raises can be used for the presidential campaign. So, it actually is very relevant to talk about what the RNC raises.” [CNN, 5/27/08]

DNC v. RNC
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Cash on Hand (In Millions) 4.4 DNC RNC 53.6