GTA A.M. PEAK MODEL

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					GTA A.M. PEAK MODEL
        Version 4.0


     Documentation
           &
      Users' Guide




       Prepared by


       Peter Dalton




       August 19, 2003
                                                                    Contents
1.0      Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 1
1.1      Summary Description ......................................................................................................................... 2
       Figure 1 - Flow Diagram ........................................................................................................................ 2
       Table 1 - Features of the A.M. Peak Period Model ................................................................................ 3
   1.1    Trip Generation .............................................................................................................................. 4
      Table 2 - Trip Generation Categories ..................................................................................................... 4
       Table 3 - Trip Generation Rates ............................................................................................................. 5
       Table 4 – External Trip Generation Rates .............................................................................................. 7
       Figure 2 - Aggregations Used in Trip Generation .................................................................................. 8
   1.2    Mode Split ...................................................................................................................................... 9
      Figure 3 - Zone Aggregations Used for Modal Split ............................................................................ 10
       Table 5 – Mode Split Factors (%) ........................................................................................................ 11
       Table 6 – Non-Zero External Mode Split Factors (%) ......................................................................... 13
   1.3    Trip Distribution........................................................................................................................... 14
      Figure 4 - Zone Aggregations Used for Trip Distribution.................................................................... 16
       Table 7 – Calibration of Auto Trip Distribution................................................................................... 17
       Table 8 - Trip Distribution Matrices..................................................................................................... 18
       Table 9 – Validation of Trip Distribution............................................................................................. 18
   1.4    Auto Assignment .......................................................................................................................... 18
      Table 10 - Auto Occupancy Factors – By Municipality (gp) or Zone Group (gg) ............................... 20
       Table 11 - Auto Occupancy Factors – By Region ................................................................................ 21
       Table 12 – Peak Hour Factors .............................................................................................................. 21
       Figure 5 – Peak Hour Factor ................................................................................................................ 22
   1.5    Transit Assignment....................................................................................................................... 22
2.0     Supplementary Features ................................................................................................................... 24
   2.1    Trucking ....................................................................................................................................... 24
   2.2    Trip Length Adjustment ............................................................................................................... 24
   2.3    HOV Assignment ......................................................................................................................... 24
   2.4    Zone Splitting ............................................................................................................................... 25
      Table 13 - Population and Employment Weights for Zone Splitting ................................................... 25
3.0     Validation ......................................................................................................................................... 26
   3.1    Land Use Data .............................................................................................................................. 26
      Table 14 - Population Data by Region ................................................................................................. 26
       Table 15 - Employed Labour Force by Region .................................................................................... 26
       Table 16 - Employment by Region....................................................................................................... 27
   3.2    Trip Generation, Mode Split and Distribution.............................................................................. 27
      Table 17 - Trip Totals and Travel Time Distributions within the GTA and Hamilton......................... 27
       Table 18 – Municipal Self Containment of a.m. Peak Period Work Trips ........................................... 29
       Table 19 – Municipal Self Containment of Auto Trips by Destination................................................ 30
   3.3    Road assignment........................................................................................................................... 31
      Table 20 – Inter-Regional Screen Line Comparisons........................................................................... 31
       Table 21 – City of Mississauga Screen Line Comparisons .................................................................. 32
   3.4    Transit assignment........................................................................................................................ 33
      Table 22 – A.M. Peak Period Transit (GTA model – GO Rail included) ............................................ 33
4.0     Model Operation............................................................................................................................... 34
   4.1    Emme2bank.................................................................................................................................. 34
      Table 23 – Emme2bank Dimensions.................................................................................................... 34
       Table 24 - Matrix Allocation Table ...................................................................................................... 35
       Table 25 – Base Matrices ..................................................................................................................... 35
       Table 26 – Zone Ensembles.................................................................................................................. 35
       Table 27 - Extra Attributes ................................................................................................................... 36
   4.2    Macros .......................................................................................................................................... 36
      Table 28 - Macros................................................................................................................................. 37
   4.3    Input Data ..................................................................................................................................... 38
      Table 29 - Recommended "Base Case" Input Parameter Values.......................................................... 39
   4.4    Modification of Trip Generation Rates and Mode Split Factors .................................................. 39
   4.5    Trip Distribution........................................................................................................................... 39
   4.6    Auto Occupancy ........................................................................................................................... 40
   4.7    Background Traffic (GO Rail Egress) .......................................................................................... 40
      Table 30 - GO Rail Stations and Growth Factors................................................................................. 40
       Table 31 - Subway Park and Ride ........................................................................................................ 41
   4.8    Other Adjustment Factors............................................................................................................. 42
   4.9    Model Outputs .............................................................................................................................. 42
      Figure 6 - Aggregations Used for Output Summaries .......................................................................... 42
Appendix A - Emme/2 Matrix Directory...................................................................................................... 44
Appendix B - Sample Printout of Performance Indicators ........................................................................... 47
Appendix C – Trip Distribution Validation Plots......................................................................................... 50
1.0      Introduction
The name “Simplified GTA model” has been adopted to distinguish between this model and the “Full GTA
model” developed at the University of Toronto. The model is “simplified” in terms of its ease of
application. The level of detail, defined by the zone system and network information, is the same in both
models. The simplified GTA model has been used in a number of sub-area studies that involve the splitting
of GTA zones for more detailed site specific analysis.

The simplified approach is based on the extrapolation of existing (observed) travel behaviour patterns as
opposed to using mathematical equations to synthesize those relationships. Assumptions as to future
changes in trip rates, mode choice factors, average trip length and auto occupancy have to be explicitly
stated as inputs to the modelling process.

The model uses a pre-distribution (trip end) mode split component that favours the incorporation of
assumptions that reflect long term socio-economic trends, household decisions (such as car ownership) and
general, area wide, levels of service rather than the details of individual route planning.

The trip distribution component is unique to the simplified model incorporating features of both the more
traditional “gravity” and “Fratar” techniques. The results reflect both the existing O-D specific travel
patterns at an aggregate level as well as the existing trip length distribution at a more detailed level. The
latter feature enables the trip distribution process to be applied to areas of new development for which there
is no existing travel information.

The trip generation, mode split and trip distribution components are based on a 3 hour peak period. The
total auto person trip matrix is converted to a peak hour auto driver matrix prior to assignment. The transit
assignment, if required as an output, is for the 3 peak period. The model, in its most basic form, does not
use any network, or level of service information, to generate the trip matrices. Some of the supplementary
features, discussed in Chapter 2, can be used to modify the trip distribution component to reflect
anticipated changes in level of service.

The current release (version 4) has been calibrated using data from the 2001 Transportation Tomorrow
Survey (TTS) and the 2001 Canada Census. To obtain complete coverage of the external areas the 2001
TTS was supplemented by data from the 1996 TTS, for the Region of Waterloo and County of
Northumberland, and by 1991 Census Place of work – Place of residence data for the Region of
Haldimand-Norfolk and the County of Brant. Model results have been validated using 2001 Cordon and
transit ridership counts. In addition a number of operational improvements have been made relative to the
earlier versions.

There are currently three versions of the simplified model:
    1. An A.M. Peak period model for the entire GTA (Including Hamilton )
    2. A P.M. Peak period model for the entire GTA (Including Hamilton)
    3. A P.M. Peak period model developed specifically for the Regional Municipality of Halton.
This introduction is common to all 3 models.

The two GTA models are both based on the 1996 GTA zone system supplemented by 26 external zones.
Some minor revisions, primarily re-calibration of the trip distribution component, will be necessary in
order to adapt the model to the 2001 GTA zone system. A refinement in the current release is the ability to
use the same emme2bank to run both the A.M. and P.M. models with little or no risk of “interference”
between the two models or accidental loss of results.

The Halton model covers the same geographic area as the GTA models but uses a more detailed zone
system within the region of Halton. The same 26 external zones are used and the GTA zones are retained
in Peel Region and Parts of Hamilton. More aggregate zones are used in the rest of Hamilton, the City of


GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                    Page 1
Toronto and in the Regions of Durham and York. The modelling procedures and the macros are identical
to those used in the GTA P.M. model.

1.1      Summary Description
Figure 1 shows the flow of information through the trip generation, mode split and trip distribution
components of the model.


                                      Figure 1 - Flow Diagram

      Work Trip
      Generation

         Home                 Modal split              Origins by mode
         Origins               factors                 Other, GO Rail,
                                                       Transit & Auto                                       Work Trip
                                                                                        Trip                matrices
                                                                                    Distribution            GO Rail,
                                                     Destinations by                                        Transit &
          Work                 Modal split                mode                                                Auto
       Destinations             factors              Other, GO Rail,
                                                     Transit & Auto




      Non-Work auto
      trip generation
                                                 Trip Distribution                               Non-work
           Total
          Origins                                                                               Auto Matrix
                                                   Row Scaling




         Local transit
          School trip
          generation

                                                      Trip Distribution
            Total                                                                                Local transit
           Origins                                      Row Scaling                             School Matrix




GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                    Page 2
Table 1 provides a summary of the main features of the model. The model has been calibrated using the
1996 TTS data


                     Table 1 - Features of the A.M. Peak Period Model


        Time period                      a.m. peak 3 hrs (6:00 - 8:59)
        Geographic Scope                 GTA, including Hamilton-Wentworth, plus 10 adjacent
                                         Counties and Regional Municipalities
        Zone system                      GTA96 plus 26 external zones (1703 total)
        Trip purpose categories          1. Work destinations (all modes)
                                         2. Home to School (local transit only)
                                         3. Non work destinations (Auto only)
        Modes                            1. Auto (Driver & Passenger)
                                         2. Transit (Excluding GO Rail access)
                                         3. GO Rail
                                         4. Other, primarily walk & cycle (Trips not distributed
                                             or assigned)
        Special Features                 1. Bucket rounding used at all stages for the calculation
                                             of trip end control totals and distributed cell values
                                         2. Modified auto trip distribution reflecting projected
                                             changes in travel time (Optional).
                                         3. Simulation of HOV lanes including the formation of
                                             new car-pools (Optional).
                                         4. Inclusion of an additional auto matrix that may be
                                             used to represent GO Rail access, truck movements
                                             or external and through trips from outside the
                                             simulated area.


The definition of the GTA includes the Regional Municipality of Hamilton-Wentworth in the context of the
model and this documentation. The revised GTA model is compatible with the existing Durham region
sub-model that uses a more detailed zone system. It is anticipated that similar Regional sub-components
may be developed for other areas.

The model produces traffic assignments for auto drivers and local transit. In the trip generation and mode
split components the auto mode includes both auto passengers and auto drivers. A subsequent auto
occupancy calculation is used to generate the auto driver matrix that is assigned. The mode-split component
includes an "other" mode category (Primarily walk and cycle) but the trips are not distributed or assigned.

Bucket rounding is used, wherever applicable, to produce control totals and individual matrix cell values
that are integers. The bucket rounding function (bint) is described in full in section 3.7.2 of the emme/2
User's Manual (Release 9). The advantages of using rounded integer values are:
     a) Rounding errors are eliminated as a source of differences when data are exported from emme/2 for
          external analysis.
     b) The size of the data files used to store, or transfer, matrix data is reduced dramatically due to the
          reduced number of non zero values and the absence of decimal places.
     c) The standard output tables produced by emme/2 are more readable and easier to analyse.

A number of supplementary features may be used in conjunction with the basic model including adjustment
of the trip distribution to reflect changes in level of service and the analysis of HOV lanes. The full range
of supplementary options is described in Chapter 2.



GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                   Page 3
1.1      Trip Generation
Trip generation rates are applied to estimates of population and employment in order to obtain the trip end
totals used as input to the subsequent stages of the model. Table 2 shows the categories of trip used in the
trip generation component of the model. Trips within and between the external zones are excluded. The
home location is assumed to be the trip origin for first trips to work regardless of the actual trip origin given
in the TTS database. The model does not require the input of destination trip rates for school trips made by
local transit because the pattern of trip destinations is assumed to remain the same for each origin zone. In
the work and non-work auto categories the origins and destinations are balanced to the same global totals
prior to trip distribution by applying user specified global weights to each. The origin weight has to be set
to a value between 0 and 1. The destination weight is automatically calculated as 1 minus the origin
weight. It is recommended that an origin weight of 1 be used on the basis that future population forecasts
are likely to be more reliable than estimates of employment.


                              Table 2 - Trip Generation Categories

                                                                                  TTS Trip Total
              Employment Based Trip Rates
                    Work trip destinations - all modes                                  1,582,885
              Population Based Trip Rates
                    Work trip origins - all modes                                       1,590,235
                    Non work auto trip origins                                            730,005
                    School trip origins using local transit                               113,421
              Composite Trip Rates
                    Non-work auto trip destinations                                       727,745

The following trip categories are not included in the trip generation component of the model:
    Non work GO Rail trips (6.7% of total a.m. peak GO Rail trips - TTS data)
    Non work or school local transit trips (5.5% of total a.m. peak transit trips - TTS data)
The model uses global adjustment factors, prior to trip assignment, to correct for these exclusions.

The base case trip generation rates were obtained from the TTS data at an aggregated level. The zone
ensemble "gg", in the emme2bank, contains the zone aggregations that are used. The zone aggregations are
sub-divisions of Planning Districts with the first digit of a 2-digit number or 2 digits of a 3-digit number,
being the planning district number. There are 84 aggregations as shown in Figure 2. In the external areas
the rates are for trips to or from the GTA and are calculated individually for each of the 26 external zones.
The trip generation rates used in future forecasts can be based on the same aggregations, a different set of
aggregations or individual values for each traffic zone.

Tables 3 and 4 show the base case trip generation rates calculated from the TTS data. The non-work auto
destination rate is the reported number of trips divided by a composite value equal to employment plus half
the population. The relative weighting gives population and employment approximately equal value since
assuming that approximately half of the population is employed. The trip rates for areas outside the GTA
are for trips to or from the GTA only, hence the slight difference in origin and destination trip totals. The
bold italic numbers in Table 4 have been manually adjusted due to reflect incomplete coverage in the TTS.
The values for Cambridge and Kitchener/Waterloo are from the 1996 TTS.

The reported non-work trip generation rates have been increased by 5% globally to reflect the known
under-reporting of non-work related trips in the TTS. Estimates of the amount of under-reporting were
made after the 1996 TTS through a comparison of non-respondent trip rates with those of respondents
having the same demographic characteristics. Non-work trips made by auto in the a.m. peak period were
estimated to be under-reported by 15%; however, the average reported trip rate, in that category, was 19%
higher in 2001. Much of that increase may be attributed to more complete reporting in the 2001 survey
compared to 1996.

GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                       Page 4
                         Table 3 - Trip Generation Rates

                             Origins per 1000 population               Destinations per 1000
                      Work            non-work       local transit   Employment     emp+pop/2
               gg                        auto           school         work          non-work
               11            292               60               32          614            60
               12            392              216               26          733            35
               20            287               68               34          470            88
               30            273               93               48          562           104
               40            314              133               24          576           147
               50            267              145               38          613           150
               60            293               82               37          451            97
               70            316              109               41          552           101
               80            276              137               29          591           151
               90            261              125               29          587           142
              100            268              103               43          621           134
              110            270              151               37          598           176
              120            279              123               39          610           124
              130            253              113               40          569           138
              140            270              134               32          477           191
              150            301              156               32          529           205
              160            276              140               33          580           133
              170            232               99                0          548            89
              180            301              155                1          515           186
              190            268              122                0          488           130
              201            316              171               12          538           180
              202            229              155                0          636            86
              210            301              172               13          518           192
              221            280              163                4          538           152
              222            299              167               11          573           194
              231            221              168               15          433           157
              232            257              150               12          535           231
              240            252              115                2          488           124
              250            281              105                0          514           131
              260            320              117                0          437           102
              270            298              160                6          534           162
              280            310              172                2          535           164
              291            327              142               11          587           188
              292            304              177               16          508           199
              293            263              218               17          633           163
              300            296              120                0          565           136
              311            301              202               13          596           173
              312            270              361                1          680           104
              313            307              211                7          535           216
              314            308              189               12          612           216
              315            261              134                0          801            97
              320            252              127                0          574           215
              331            360              122                4          540            65
              332            346              154                6          612           128
              333            345              271               17          664            38
              334            338              155                6          604           153
              335            286              192               18          468           226
              341            338              107                1          534            77
              342            320              118                0          454           167




GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                             Page 5
                               Table 3 (Cont.) - Trip Generation Rates

                              Origins per 1000 population                Destinations per 1000
                       Work          non-work        local transit       emp.         emp+pop/2
                                     auto            school
                  gg                                                  Work          non-work
                 351          361              119                0           601               90
                 352          305              152                7           535              201
                 353          238              169               15           588              138
                 354          305              153               11           468              190
                 355          253              169                0           593              151
                 356          318              177                8           531              184
                 361          271              192                8           544              238
                 362          324              154                4           529              280
                 363          309              168               11           567              185
                 364          303              141               19           543              151
                 365          316              177               11           600              174
                 366          310              184               11           648              151
                 367          251              196               11           613               64
                 368          284              122               18           531              139
                 371          300              139                0           496              159
                 372          316              111                1           531               96
                 381          309              164                0           533              150
                 382          289              162                0           612              152
                 391          258              187                5           584              182
                 392          282              257                2           535              220
                 393          316              195                4           537              253
                 394          312              184                2           590              189
                 401          288              177                1           580              180
                 402          277              167                4           526              169
                 403          302              183                3           590              172
                 404          198               56               10           549               73
                 410          280              124                1           460              116
                 420          272              149                1           439              168
                 430          280              162                4           426              184
                 440          257               88                0           399               97
                 450          267              142                3           542              118
                 461          240              150               18           505              215
                 462          230              102               15           526              151
                 463          228              115               22           581              148
                 464          201              201               25           544               64
         Mean
         values
         Toronto              281              113               36          602               117
         Durham               276              154                9          512               174
         York                 305              175                9          596               158
         Peel                 305              164               11          580               155
         Halton               294              178                3          553               181
         Hamilton             245              133               13          531               153

         Total                285              140               21           584              141




GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                  Page 6
                           Table 4 – External Trip Generation Rates
                                 (Trips to or from the GTA and Hamilton)

                                           Origins per 1000 population          Destinations per 1000
                                         Work       non-work    local transit   emp.        emp+pop/2
       Zone    Locations                              auto          school      work         non-work
       4001    Northumberland                 20             5              0       25              5
       4002    City of Peterborough           16             6              0       19              6
       4003    Peterborough County            99            13              0       49              7
       4004    Kawartha Lakes South           46            13              0       26             11
       4005    Kawartha Lakes North           65            18              0       28             21
       4100    Simcoe South                  183            21              0       84             12
       4101    Simcoe West                   118            15              0       43             12
       4102    Barrie                         62             9              0       25              7
       4103    Simcoe North                   18             6              0        9              5
       4104    Orillia                        15            12              0       13              9
       4201    Orangeville                   131            21              0       67             13
       4202    Dufferin County                80            11              0       50             11
       4301    Guelph                         40             7              0       39              8
       4302    Wellington South              190            26              0       65             23
       4303    Wellington North               57             6              0       30              6
       4401    Cambridge                      39             2              0       62              6
       4402    Kitchener-Waterloo             13             3              0       16              3
       4403    Brant County                   75            16              0       60              8
       4404    Haldimand-Norfolk              15             3              0       15              3
       4405    Grimsby                       101            21              0       83             13
       4406    St Catharines                  14             3              0       19              5
       4407    Niagara-Fort Erie               7             4              0       14              4
       4408    West Lincoln                   57             9              0       27              3


Note – the above locations do not necessarily describe the location of the zone boundaries. Some zones
include other municipalities adjacent to the one named (e.g. St Catharines includes Niagara-on-the-lake and
Thorold).




GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                     Page 7
                 Figure 2 - Aggregations Used in Trip Generation




GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                Page 8
1.2      Mode Split

Mode split factors have to be supplied for both the origins and destinations of trips starting from work. The
origins and destinations for each mode are factored to a common total, using a specified weighting factor,
prior to calculation of the split for the next mode. The mode split factors applied in the running of the
model may be based on the same aggregations as used in the calibration, a different set of aggregations or
on individual zone values.

Figure 3 shows the zone aggregations used in the calibration of the mode split component of the model.
The areas not shown have the same aggregations as are used for trip generation (Figure 2). Tables 5 and 6
show the base case modal split factors calculated from TTS data. The zone aggregation ensemble "gm" is
used. The numbering convention is the same as for the aggregations used in trip generation (i.e. the first 1
or 2 digits are the planning district number). The total number of aggregations for the GTA and Hamilton
is 127. The external mode split factors shown in Table 6 apply to work trips made to or from the GTA and
Hamilton. Zones not shown in Table 6 are zero for both GO rail and local transit as are all the destination
values and the origin values for the other mode. The values for Cambridge and Kitchener-Waterloo are
from the 1996 TTS.

The factors are applied sequentially to determine the subsequent mode shares after the previous mode has
been subtracted from the total. The sequence of application is
         i) Other (Walk an Cycle)
         ii) GO Rail
         iii) Local Transit
The remaining trips are assumed to be made by automobile (Driver or passenger).

The origins and destinations for each mode are scaled to a common total, using a user specified weighting
factor, prior to the calculation of the split for the next mode.




GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                   Page 9
                Figure 3 - Zone Aggregations Used for Modal Split




GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                 Page 10
                                Table 5 – Mode Split Factors (%)

                              Work Trip Origins                    Work Trip Destinations
           Gm         Other       GO Rail       Transit    Other         GO Rail        Transit
            11           38.4           0.5         58.1       8.6             10.3         56.8
            12           44.1           1.1         34.6       5.7             27.6         59.6
            13           24.1           0.6         60.1      12.2              6.2         48.3
            14           36.2           0.6         45.0       8.7             16.2         49.4
            15           17.2           0.0         48.5       5.1              2.8         22.5
            16           33.1           0.0         52.5       9.4              8.8         35.2
            17           23.6           0.5         59.9      11.1              3.3         39.4
            21           15.3           0.0         43.8       9.0              0.9         28.7
            22           12.2           0.0         44.0      13.7              0.8         31.3
            23            4.3           0.2         41.6       9.8              1.1         24.8
            24            7.2           0.1         44.3       6.8              0.7         24.4
            31            6.7           0.4         36.1       9.3              0.3         18.7
            32            1.7           0.0         26.1       3.3              0.2         15.7
            33            3.5           2.3         30.7       6.5              0.8         12.6
            34            7.4           0.0         33.1       2.3              0.3         22.7
            35            4.8           0.0         39.1       5.8              0.6         25.8
            41            5.7           0.0         34.6       8.6              1.6         29.4
            42            3.3           0.1         31.8       3.6              0.6         25.0
            43            9.1           0.4         38.9       8.3              1.9         37.3
            44            8.6           0.0         44.7       7.8              4.2         43.1
            45            0.0           0.0         12.7       4.9              1.4         17.5
            46            6.3           0.0         34.5       5.8              0.7         28.7
            51            1.2           0.0         20.9       0.3              1.0         27.0
            52            1.9           0.5         20.8       1.8              0.3         14.6
            53            4.2           0.0         33.8       2.6              0.2         14.5
            61            5.1           0.0         35.7       6.6              0.0         20.1
            62            6.4           0.2         46.4      10.8              0.5         33.7
            63            7.4           0.0         36.6      12.1              0.9         25.8
            70            4.2           4.9         17.7       3.7              1.0         11.5
            81            3.1           1.4         25.6       3.0              0.3         13.6
            82            2.4           0.3         31.7       1.5              0.9         25.4
            83            1.9           1.9         22.7       1.6              0.3         13.0
            84            2.6           0.6         20.4       3.8              0.0         10.2
            85            2.3           0.8         20.9       2.4              0.3         11.5
            90            2.3           1.4         17.2       1.6              0.2          8.8
           101            3.0           0.5         15.5       1.9              0.0         11.3
           102            2.0           0.0         26.8       3.4              0.0         14.5
           103            2.8           0.6         32.1       1.5              0.0         16.2
           104            3.3           0.0         23.0       0.9              0.4          9.2
           111            3.0           0.1         30.7       2.8              0.3         14.8
           112            2.6           0.0         30.4       3.1              0.0         18.7
           113            6.6           0.2         44.9       3.4              0.9         30.1
           114            4.1           0.4         29.4       4.6              0.0         12.4
           115            3.4           0.6         21.5       8.3              0.0         14.4
           116            3.6           1.4         23.7       3.1              0.0          9.7
           121            0.6           2.1         25.8       0.7              0.0          9.8
           122            1.7           1.6         31.7       1.6              0.0         12.2
           131            1.9           0.6         24.5       2.4              0.0         13.6
           132            3.1           3.3         25.7       2.0              0.3         15.1
           133            2.0           0.7         29.9       2.0              0.0         17.8
           134            1.7           3.1         24.3       2.9              0.3         12.2
           135            2.8           0.5         36.3       4.3              0.1         16.3
           140            2.3           4.4         24.2       2.6              0.3         11.2


GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                Page 11
                        Table 5 (Cont.) – Mode Split Factors (%)
                              Work Trip Origins                    Work Trip Destinations
           gm         Other       GO Rail       Transit    Other         GO Rail        Transit
           151            0.6           8.4         12.1       1.4              0.0          7.9
           152            2.5           7.0         17.2       5.3              0.0         10.7
           161            1.5           2.0         23.6       1.9              0.0         11.1
           162            2.8           1.8         21.1       2.4              0.0         10.1
           163            2.9           2.1         21.1       2.1              0.1         11.3
           164            2.2           2.1         23.6       1.3              0.3         11.4
           170            4.7           0.0          0.0       9.7              0.0          0.0
           180            1.4           1.9          0.6       2.2              0.0          1.5
           190            2.5           1.0          0.6       4.3              0.0          0.0
           201            0.9          10.9          2.3       1.2              1.0          0.9
           202            0.0           7.0          0.0       0.0              0.0          0.0
           210            1.2          13.7          3.2       2.2              0.7          1.5
           221            1.7           7.9          1.7       0.6              0.5          1.1
           222            1.1          10.7          1.7       4.0              0.2          0.4
           231            2.7           3.9          3.4       2.4              0.3          3.0
           232            2.7           4.7          2.3       4.5              0.1          2.0
           240            1.8           3.8          0.6       3.5              0.0          0.5
           250            1.5           0.6          0.2       3.8              0.0          0.0
           260            0.3           1.9          0.9       2.2              0.0          0.0
           270            2.3           4.1          2.9       2.5              0.0          1.6
           280            1.7           2.5          3.0       3.0              0.0          0.8
           291            1.0           4.6          6.2       2.0              0.0          2.1
           292            1.3           5.8          8.2       3.1              0.2          3.6
           293            0.4           8.4         11.4       0.5              0.0          6.1
           300            3.3           5.1          0.0       4.2              0.0          0.4
           311            2.1           2.8         16.4       1.3              0.0          6.2
           312            2.2           2.9          8.8       0.5              0.1          4.7
           313            1.0           6.6          4.6       1.7              0.0          2.9
           314            0.7           3.5         13.7       0.6              0.0          5.4
           315            0.0           0.0          0.0       1.6              0.0          0.0
           320            1.7           1.8          1.8       2.5              0.0          0.3
           331            0.0           2.3          3.2       0.0              0.0          2.9
           332            1.0           1.0          4.9       0.5              0.0          4.0
           333            0.7           1.4         13.0       0.2              0.0          5.5
           334            0.3           3.1          4.8       0.3              0.0          1.9
           335            1.9           0.2         17.3       4.9              0.0         12.1
           341            1.1           2.0          0.9       1.7              0.0          0.0
           342            1.1           1.8          0.5       2.3              0.0          0.0
           351            0.0           3.9          3.8       0.0              0.0          0.7
           352            1.3           4.6          4.3       2.6              0.2          4.4
           353            0.0           0.0          0.0       0.4              0.0          4.1
           354            1.1           3.7          5.5       1.7              0.0          4.1
           355            0.0           1.9          0.0       0.9              0.0          2.6
           356            1.0           3.8          3.7       2.8              0.2          2.7
           361            2.1          16.7          5.3       2.3              0.5          3.4
           362            1.9           9.2          5.4       7.0              1.4          5.4
           363            1.2           7.8          4.7       1.5              0.2          4.3
           364            1.7           5.6         12.1       2.1              0.1          6.3
           365            0.7           8.1          2.0       0.9              0.0          3.4
           366            0.3           7.1          6.8       0.4              0.0          5.3
           367            1.5           2.0         13.2       0.7              0.0          5.3
           368            1.7           2.9         13.9       2.6              0.3          6.5
           371            3.0           7.5          0.8       6.2              0.0          0.9
           372            2.2           3.5          0.7       4.2              0.0          0.0


GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                Page 12
                           Table 5 (Cont.) – Mode Split Factors (%)
                                          Work Trip Origins   Work Trip Destinations
           gm      Other           GO Rail     Transit        Other        GO Rail       Transit
           381              2.9           3.8          0.7           2.8           0.0             0.0
           382              0.0           7.0          0.0           1.3           0.3             0.0
           391              2.8          13.3          2.5           2.4           1.1             2.1
           392              1.4          17.1          1.4           0.7           1.0             0.8
           393              2.3          15.0          2.2           2.6           0.0             2.5
           394              0.4          17.1          1.1           1.9           0.0             0.8
           401              1.6           2.5          1.0           1.8           0.5             1.6
           402              1.9           7.9          2.3           1.8           0.5             2.0
           403              1.2           8.1          0.9           1.3           0.2             1.5
           404              0.0           2.5          0.0           3.8           0.0             0.0
           410              1.8           2.7          0.2           2.6           0.0             0.6
           420              5.2           1.2          2.1           7.8           0.0             3.1
           430              1.2           1.3          0.5           3.1           0.0             0.9
           440              1.7           0.0          0.0           3.5           0.0             1.4
           450              0.5           0.8          2.2           1.5           0.0             2.0
           461              2.9           1.8          4.6           4.7           0.0             5.0
           462              3.4           1.2          6.4           4.9           0.2             6.6
           463             11.8           2.8         13.2           7.7           0.1             9.8
           464              8.0           2.1          7.0           2.8           0.0             3.8
              Mean Values
          Toronto           6.2           1.2         31.3           5.1           7.1         28.9
          Durham            1.7           7.8          2.0           2.7           0.4          1.4
          York              1.3           3.5          7.3           1.3           0.0          4.3
          Peel              1.2           5.7          6.2           1.3           0.1          4.6
          Halton            1.8          10.1          1.4           2.1           0.4          1.4
          Hamilton          4.1           1.7          4.9           5.0           0.0          5.7

          Total             3.7           3.7         16.4           3.6           3.7         16.1




                  Table 6 – Non-Zero External Mode Split Factors (%)
                            (For trips made to or from the GTA and Hamilton)

                            Zone      Description               Work Trip Origins to
                                                                the GTA or Hamilton
                                                                GO Rail     Transit
                            4002      City of Peterborough           1.4         5.0
                            4003      Peterborough County            1.1         0.0
                            4004      Kawartha Lakes South           1.1         1.1
                            4100      Simcoe South                   2.0         2.5
                            4101      Simcoe West                    0.8         2.5
                            4102      Barrie                         1.5         4.9
                            4103      Simcoe North                   0.0         2.3
                            4104      Orillia                        0.0         3.5
                            4201      Orangeville                    1.5         0.0
                            4301      Guelph                         1.2         3.9
                            4302      Wellington South               2.7         0.0
                            4303      Wellington North               4.8         0.0
                            4401      Cambridge                      0.0         2.5
                            4402      Kitchener-Waterloo             0.4         2.1
                            4405      Grimsby                        2.7         0.0
                            4406      St Catharines                  1.0         3.6



GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                      Page 13
1.3      Trip Distribution

Trips to work are distributed by two-dimensional balancing of a "base" matrix to the desired origin and
destination zone totals for each of the three modes (auto, GO Rail and local transit). Non-work auto trips
are distributed in the same manner. School trips made by local transit are distributed by factoring each row
of the applicable "base" matrix to the desired row totals. The input "base" matrices are not trip matrices.
They define an initial probability distribution that is comparable in its role to the impedance component of
a gravity model function. The matrices have been derived from the 2001 TTS data, supplemented by 1996
TTS data for Waterloo and Northumberland and 1991 Census Place of Work – Place of Residence data for
the Regional municipality of Haldimand-Norfolk and the County of Brant. These “probability” matrices
have the following properties

         a) When balanced to the TTS trip end totals they produce a trip pattern that is almost identical to
            the TTS at an aggregated level (e.g.: PD to PD) but which is more uniformly distributed at the
            individual zone level.
         b) The observed TTS trip length distribution is closely maintained.
         c) The matrices for the auto mode have non-zero values in every row and column. The matrices
            can therefore be used to obtain trip distributions in newly developed areas for which there is
            no existing trip data. The resulting trip length distribution should be similar to that observed
            in other areas. The GO Rail and transit matrices do have some zero row and column totals.
            These are in areas where there is currently no ridership at all even at a very aggregate level
            (e.g. Planning District).

Figure 4 shows the zone aggregations used in the calibration of the base trip distribution matrices. The first
step in that process was to aggregate the observed trip tables from the TTS database to these aggregations.
The mean value of the zone to zone trip movements that make each aggregated group to group movement
was calculated by dividing the total trip movement by the total number of zone to zone pairs that make up
that aggregated block. For example if there were 5 zones in the zone group containing the origin zone and
7 zones in the group containing the destination zone then the total number of trips between the origin group
and the destination group would be divided by 35 (5 x 7) to obtain the mean values. The mean value is
substituted in the observed matrix for all the zone pairs that make up the aggregation. In the case of GO
Rail and local transit work trips the revised matrix is used as the base matrix for the distribution of those
two modes. The implied assumption is that the zones within each block have equally attractive with the
resulting number of trips determined only by the relative magnitudes of the required origin and destination
totals, i.e. the basics of a gravity model formulation.

Using the mean value within each block does not work well for the auto trip distribution due primarily to
the much high propensity for very short trips to occur, either intra-zone or between adjacent zones. The
values in the base auto trip distribution matrices, both work and non-work, have been adjustment to more
accurately reflect the actual trip length distribution. The method of adjustment uses the three-dimensional
trip balancing feature available in emm/2. An index matrix, used as the third dimension, was created based
on the auto travel times between zones obtained from an equilibrium assignment of the 2001 TTS trip data
to the 2001 road network. Separate index values were assigned to origin and destination cells within the
same zone group from those representing trip movements between different zone groups. Separate index
values were also used for trips to and from external areas. The number of observed (TTS) trips represented
by each index value was recorded and used as the third dimension control totals in balancing the matrix of
mean values to the original TTS row and column trip totals by zone. The third dimension balancing
coefficients were saved and applied to the appropriate cells in the matrix of mean values to produce the
final base matrix for each of the two trip purposes. The time intervals, trip totals and balancing coefficients
are shown in Table 7. The travel time intervals were selected to provide a reasonably uniform distribution
of trip totals for each index value within the two categories – intra and inter zone group. There is little
variation in the balancing coefficients for inter-group trips over 13.5 minutes in length. A single interval
would likely have been sufficient. At the time the calibration of the trip distribution component was carried
out the model was structured to provide estimates of trip movements within and between external zones.

GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                   Page 14
The structure (trip rates) for external zones was subsequently changed to only include trips to/from the
GTA and Hamilton. The external values (interval 25) in all the base matrices were changed to zero at that
time. Since the values in the matrices represent relative probabilities there was no need to change other
values.

 The base matrix for local transit school trips was obtained through the same process as was used for the
auto trip distribution except that in addition to the third dimension balancing coefficients the column
balancing coefficients were also applied in calculating the base matrix prior to normalizing the values in
each row to sum to a value of 1. At the current time the same base local transit school matrix is being used
as in the 1996 version of the model.




GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                 Page 15
              Figure 4 - Zone Aggregations Used for Trip Distribution




GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                     Page 16
                        Table 7 – Calibration of Auto Trip Distribution

               Third Dimension                 Auto Work                   Auto Non-Work
            Index     Lower bound       Observed     Balancing        Observed      Balancing
                         (minutes)     trips (TTS) Coefficients      trips (TTS)   Coefficients
          Intra-zone group
               1             0               18735        1.86548          96205         2.63789
               2            0.5              32496        1.22053          99831          1.3849
               3            3.5              38741        1.00135          83430          .73701
               4            5.5              29463         .79973          41741          .37635
               5            7.5              31314         .68505          25674          .20176
               6           12.5               9826         .53207           5077          .13622
          Inter-zone group
               7             0               39305        1.45849          53260         2.14266
               8            5.5              48122        1.16025          43475         1.16356
               9            7.5              95758        1.00101          58481          .77137
              10           10.5             112727           .9488         47483          .65028
              11           13.5             109354         .89267          35405          .64209
              12           16.5             101282         .89431          26033          .62974
              13           19.5             111990         .87714          24437          .67183
              14           23.5             144914         .87618          27843          .65824
              15           30.5             109570         .85458          18196           .7021
              16           40.5             138109         .87038          23285          .68677
          External areas
              17      East in                 5991           .8977          1735            .8131
              18      East out                1983         .90761           1459          .70872
              19      North in               22934         .92692           3743          .82437
              20      North out               3747         .89233           2534          .72416
              21      West in                18354         .88706           3165          .77426
              22      West out                3321         .92949           1796          .75891
              23      South in               17262         .80419           3830          .66594
              24      South out               6355        1.10209           2227         1.03825
              25      Ext. to Ext.          365304           .9172        217082          .83329


External Areas
         East – Northumberland, Peterborough (City & County) and Kawartha Lakes
         North – Simcoe County, Barrie, Orillia, Orangeville, Dufferin County, Wellington North
         West – Region of Waterloo, Guelph, Brant County and Wellington South
         South – Regions of Niagara and Haldimand-Norfolk
         In – inbound to the GTA
         Out – outbound from the GTA

The primary purpose of the trip distribution process is to “smooth” out the TTS data replacing many of the
zeros in the observed trip table with values that can be used as the base for future trip distribution. Most
of the non-zero cell values in the TTS trip matrices are single observations representing an expanded total
of approximately 20 trips (5% sample). Table 8 provides a comparison of the number of non-zero cells in
each base matrix with the number of non-zero cells in the corresponding TTS trip matrix. The total number
of cells in each trip matrix is approximately 3 million (1703 x 1703). Zero values remain where there are
no trips recorded in the TTS trip database even at the aggregated group to group level. The implied
assumption is that if there are no trips today between these areas the number will not become significant
within the time frame to which the model is applied. In the case of GO rail and local transit there are some
entire municipalities for which there are no trips recorded in the TTS database. In these cases the entire
GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                 Page 17
block of rows and/or columns has been left as zero. Any trip ends assigned to those zones at the mode split
stage of the model are ignored in the trip distribution process.



                               Table 8 - Trip Distribution Matrices

                                          No. of trips            Number of non zero cells
          Trip Category                   (2001 TTS)          2001 TTS          Base matrix
                                                                            (Possible O-D pairs)
          Auto work                        1,438,030           57,085            1,903,127
          GO Rail work                       55,179             2,446             138,612
          Local Transit work                237,014            11,099             515,268
          Auto Non work                     871,369            22,570            1,114,542
          Local Transit School              117,806             4,711             148,048

The other objectives of the trip distribution process were to maintain the observed O-D pattern at the
aggregate level and the overall trip length distribution. To test how well these objectives are achieved each
of the base matrices was balanced to the original trip totals from the TTS. Comparisons were made
comparing the resulting trip length distributions and trip assignments with the original those obtained from
the original TTS trip matrices. The trip length comparisons were done on the basis of travel time by road
for all modes. Similarly free flow minimum time path (all or nothing) assignments on the road network
were used to assess the similarity of the trip patterns. The use of all or nothing assignments ensures that the
link volumes that are being compared consist of the same aggregation of O-D pairs. The histograms and
link scattergrams produced by these comparisons are contained in Appendix C. Table 9 gives a summary
of those results.

                            Table 9 – Validation of Trip Distribution

                      Observed Time           Simulated Time             Linear Regression Equation
                       Distribution             Distribution           Simulated vs. TTS link volumes
                     Mean        S.D.         Mean        S.D.       Intercept Gradient      R squared
Auto Work            19.5        14.9         19.6        14.9          24         .984         .999
Auto non-work         9.7        12.3          9.8        12.3          30         .924         .984
GO Rail              35.5        11.0         35.5        10.9
Local Transit        14.9         9.4         15.1         9.4

1.4      Auto Assignment

Prior to assignment the matrices for the different trip purposes are aggregated. An auto occupancy matrix
is used to calculate the number of auto vehicles (auto drivers) and a peak hour factor is applied. The base
case auto occupancy factors are shown in Tables 10 and 11. The factors are the number of auto drivers plus
passengers divided by the number of auto drivers in the 2001 TTS data. Three different levels of
aggregation have been used to calculate the factors with municipality (Planning district in Toronto) being
the primary one. Table 10 shows the average auto occupancy factors for all trip movements between
municipalities where the expanded TTS auto person trip total exceeds 1000 persons (approximately 50
observations). Municipal to municipal trip movements of less than one thousand auto persons have been
aggregated at the region to region level. These values, shown in Table 11, are used for all trip movements
not shown in Table 11.

Intra-municipal trip movements within the Cities of Brampton and Mississauga are further sub-divided by
the zone groups used for trip generation and mode split (See Figure 2). These values, also shown in Table
10, are used where the zone group to zone group movement exceeds 1000 persons. Those movements are
excluded from the municipal averages used for the remaining cells.
GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                   Page 18
In general it can be seen that average auto occupancy is lower for medium length trips than it is for either
short trips or very long trips. Intra-municipal trips (values shown in bold type) generally have the highest
level of auto occupancy. The TTS data does not include trip information for people under the age of 11 nor
are these included in the model. The average auto occupancy figures used in the model are therefore likely
to be lower than the values one would expect to observe on the street.




GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                 Page 19
  Table 10 - Auto Occupancy Factors – By Municipality (gp) or Zone Group (gg)

 Fr   To           Fr   To          Fro   To          Fro   To           Fr   To             Fro   To
 o                 o                m                 m                  o                   m
 m                 m                                                     m

  1     1   1.19    5    1   1.18     9    9   1.44    13   12    1.14   20      21   1.19    29    4   1.15
        2   1.21         3   1.19         10   1.26         13    1.33           31   1.08          5   1.14
        3   1.30         4   1.32         33   1.24         14    1.46   21      13   1.15         10   1.17
        4   1.14         5   1.38         35   1.16         15    1.20           16   1.13         11   1.18
        5   1.12         6   1.30         36   1.11         16    1.25           20   1.11         12   1.09
        6   1.22        10   1.07   10     1   1.21         31    1.16           21   1.39         16   1.07
       13   1.07        11   1.21          3   1.27         33    1.18           22   1.14         29   1.42
       36   1.07        12   1.18          4   1.15         36    1.08           23   1.22         31   1.19
  2     1   1.30        13   1.16          8   1.15    14    1    1.23           31   1.11         33   1.15
        2   1.33        16   1.14          9   1.25          6    1.37   22       1   1.12         36   1.01
        3   1.19        31   1.11         10   1.34         13    1.27           13   1.02    30   30   1.20
        4   1.10        33   1.18         11   1.23         14    1.45           16   1.08         31   1.10
        8   1.17        36   1.06         33   1.27         16    1.14           20   1.05    31    1   1.22
        9   1.20    6    1   1.28         35   1.18    15    1    1.48           21   1.11          4   1.13
       10   1.15         2   1.19         36   1.14          5    1.17           22   1.32          5   1.14
       33   1.11         4   1.23   11     1   1.20         13    1.19           23   1.17         10   1.11
       36   1.10         5   1.20          3   1.14         14    1.49           31   1.08         11   1.15
  3     1   1.28         6   1.28          4   1.22         15    1.49   23      13   1.08         12   1.16
        2   1.47        12   1.06          5   1.22         16    1.29           16   1.12         13   1.16
        3   1.35        13   1.14         10   1.15         31    1.08           20   1.10         16   1.16
        4   1.24        14   1.27         11   1.40    16    1    1.27           21   1.20         29   1.10
        5   1.17        16   1.11         12   1.23          4    1.24           22   1.12         31   1.37
        8   1.25        31   1.10         13   1.21          5    1.17           23   1.28         33   1.10
        9   1.20        36   1.10         16   1.09         10    1.21           24   1.08         36   1.09
       10   1.21    7    1   1.18         29   1.17         11    1.26   24      20   1.12    32   32   1.12
       11   1.22         7   1.33         31   1.11         12    1.24           22   1.07    33    1   1.16
       31   1.14         8   1.27         33   1.15         13    1.18           23   1.13          3   1.14
       33   1.24        36   1.11         36   1.05         15    1.43           24   1.25          4   1.16
       35   1.17    8    1   1.19   12     1   1.29         16    1.43   25      25   1.18          5   1.17
       36   1.21         2   1.22          5   1.34         29    1.06           27   1.13          8   1.07
  4     1   1.16         3   1.21         10   1.25         31    1.17           31   1.09          9   1.12
        3   1.22         4   1.25         11   1.30         33    1.11   26      26   1.25         10   1.16
        4   1.33         7   1.10         12   1.50         36    1.14           27   1.19         11   1.32
        5   1.21         8   1.36         13   1.19    17   17    1.05   27      27   1.27         29   1.13
        6   1.23         9   1.16         16   1.27    18   18    1.31           28   1.12         31   1.21
       10   1.08        10   1.06         31   1.07    19   19    1.27           29   1.08         33   1.30
       11   1.28        33   1.05   13     1   1.27         23    1.07           31   1.06         35   1.08
       13   1.12        35   1.09          4   1.25    20    1    1.14   28      27   1.09         36   1.05
       16   1.01        36   1.08          5   1.23          5    1.26           28   1.35    34    9   1.14
       31   1.05    9    1   1.12          6   1.26         13    1.13           29   1.27         33   1.10
       33   1.08         3   1.19         10   1.16         16    1.15           31   1.11         34   1.16
       36   1.08         8   1.35         11   1.28         20    1.28   29       1   1.16         35   1.14


Bold text denotes intra-municipal values.
Trip movements of less than 1000 auto persons (~50 observations) not included.
Municipal codes are shown in Figure 3.


GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                 Page 20
 Table 10 (Cont.) - Auto Occupancy Factors by Municipality or Zone Group (gg)
Fro   To           Fr   To          Fro   To           From    To               Fro     To              Fro       To
m                  o                m                                           m                       m
                   m
 34    36   1.07   36    8   1.11    38    39   1.11     43      43     1.35          Peel sub-areas (gg)
 35     1   1.18         9   1.14    39     1   1.15             46     1.13    352       363    1.24       364   360   1.38
        3   1.08        10   1.08           8   1.15     44      46     1.15    354       353    1.26             362   1.25
        4   1.29        11   1.06          35   1.07     45      40     1.08              354    1.43             363   1.16
        8   1.09        13   1.15          36   1.09             45     1.27              355    1.46             364   1.39
        9   1.18        16   1.12          39   1.29             46     1.16              356    1.28       365   359   1.20
       10   1.17        31   1.05          40   1.12     46      36     1.09              363    1.16             360   1.17
       11   1.30        33   1.08          46   1.05             39     1.11    356       352    1.46             361   1.37
       33   1.11        35   1.12    40     1   1.12             40     1.11              353    1.19             362   1.15
       34   1.50        36   1.21          36   1.06             41     1.25              354    1.29             363   1.09
       35   1.15        38   1.11          38   1.08             42     1.13              356    1.39       366   360   1.21
       36   1.10        39   1.15          39   1.10             43     1.18              363    1.19             361   1.25
       39   1.15        40   1.05          40   1.30             45     1.16    361       357    1.47             362   1.42
 36     1   1.16   37   35   1.13          46   1.08             46     1.27    362       358    1.41             363   1.16
        2   1.13        36   1.07    41    40   1.15   Peel sub-areas (gg)      363       359    1.44       367   363   1.29
        3   1.12        37   1.23          41   1.19    352     352     1.44              360    1.15       368   363   1.31
        4   1.17        38   1.18          46   1.16            353     1.57              361    1.09             364   1.38
        5   1.12   38   36   1.11    42    42   1.33            356     1.13              363    1.07
        7   1.11        38   1.23          46   1.12            362     1.06


Bold text denotes intra municipal or zone group values.
Intra municipal values for Brampton (35) and Mississauga (36) exclude the records used to calculate the
zone group to zone group values within those two municipalities.
Trip movements of less than 1000 auto persons (~50 observations) not included
Group and Municipal codes are shown in Figures 2 and 3 respectively.

                     Table 11 - Auto Occupancy Factors – By Region

 From \ to     Toronto Durham         York       Peel         Halton         Hamilton        External
 Toronto         1.12       1.10      1.11       1.09          1.11            1.08           1.12
 Durham          1.12       1.11      1.10       1.09          1.18            1.18           1.14
 York            1.09       1.12      1.12       1.07          1.11            1.11           1.07
 Peel            1.11       1.15      1.05       1.15          1.10            1.07           1.15
 Halton          1.05       1.07      1.05       1.06          1.06            1.08           1.09
 Hamilton        1.09       1.03      1.03       1.04          1.06            1.16           1.06
 External        1.11       1.08      1.08       1.11          1.11            1.11            n/a
Values exclude those trip movements shown in Table 10


                                 Table 12 – Peak Hour Factors
                                                1 hour          3 hours           Ratio
                    Trips (2001 TTS)             857,890        1,923,043         0.446
                    trips < 20 mins              615,870        1,312,958         0.469
                    % of total &                    72%              68%           0.47
                    assumed ratio
                    trips > 50 mins               41,821            127,381       0.328
                    % of total &                     5%                 7%         0.27
                    assumed ratio

GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                         Page 21
                                                                  Figure 5 – Peak Hour Factor



                              0.550
                                                                                                                                  TTS data
                              0.500


                              0.450


                              0.400
  Ratio - 1 hour to 3 hours




                              0.350


                              0.300


                              0.250


                              0.200


                              0.150


                              0.100
                                      0   5   10   15   20   25   30   35   40      45    50     55      60   65   70   75   80   85    90   95
                                                                                 Trip Length (minutes)




The factor applied to convert peak period to peak hour is based on the estimated travel time by road in 2001
between each zone pair. A conversion factor of 0.47 is applied to trips with a travel time of less than 20
minutes and 0.27 for trips greater than 50 minutes. Linear interpolation is used to determine the
appropriate factor for trips with a travel time greater than 20 minutes but less than 50 minutes. These
factors were obtained from the 2001 TTS data shown in Table 12. The factor for long trips has been
reduced by almost 20% for 2 reasons. Firstly the TTS data is based on trip start time whereas the volume
assigned to a link in the network includes trips from many different origins requiring different amounts of
time to reach that point. Across the network as a whole these delays are likely to produce a more uniform
dispersal of trip times particularly for long trips. The peak hour factor for long trips is reduced further to
take into account the accumulated effect of delays due to congestion on critical links in the network. If the
resulting queues are not dissipated until after the peak period is over then the number of trips observed,
based on trip start time, actually represents a longer period time than the 3 hours for which the data was
extracted. Figure 5 shows a comparison of the assumed relationship with the observed data from TTS. The
conversion factors, and the time ranges to which they apply, may be modified when applying the model to
future scenarios.

The modelling procedures include the option to add in a “background traffic” matrix prior to assignment.
This matrix is used to represent the auto egress component of GO Rail and subway trips as reported in the
2001 TTS. The TTS gives the access station and the GTA zone of trip origin. The matrix, extracted from
the 2001 TTS data, is peak period auto drivers. In the modelling procedure the peak hour factor is applied
but no auto occupancy factor. The model has provision for factoring the supplementary matrix both
globally and selectively by destination zone (station) to reflect projected growth in GO Rail and subway
ridership.

1.5                                   Transit Assignment

The transit assignment is performed in two stages. GO Rail trips are assigned allowing the use of all transit
modes. The integrated GTA network has been modified to include the auxiliary transit mode “z” on most
GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                                                               Page 22
road links outside the City of Toronto with a fixed operating speed of 40 kph. Mode “z” is used to
represent the auto access component of GO Rail trips. The assignment procedure does not "force" trips on
to GO Rail if the network provides a more attractive alternative using local transit. The assigned GO Rail
volumes may therefore be slightly less than the volumes obtained from the mode split calculations. GO
Rail volumes can also be obtained by aggregating the trip matrix to station catchment area (ensemble gs).
These volumes will be consistent with the mode-split calculations.

Local transit trips are assigned without permitting the use of modes “r” or “z” (GO Rail and GO Rail
access). The resulting transit assignment does not include the use of local transit to provide access or
egress to GO Rail stations, other than in the City of Toronto, unless local transit provides for a faster
alternative than mode “z” (highly unlikely).

A transit network is not needed for Trip Generation, Mode Split and Trip Distribution. The model can be
used to analyse future transit demand on an existing network without the need for detailed specification of
future service levels on every route. The scenario used for the transit assignment is specified separately
from the scenario used for the road assignment. A single integrated network can be used for both
assignments or two separate networks can be used. The latter is strongly recommended for most
applications.

The transit assignment macro contains the following values for the parameters that have to be specified in
order to perform a transit assignment. The same values are used for both the GO rail and local transit
components.

         Source for effective headways = actual line headways with maximum (option 2)
         Maximum effective headway = 15
         Source for boarding times = same value for entire network (option 1)
         Boarding time = 2
         Source for wait time factors = same value for entire network (option 1)
         Wait time factor = 0.5
         Wait time weight = 2
         Auxiliary transit time weight = 1
         Boarding time weight = 1

Changing the above values is unlikely to have any significant effect on the assigned volumes but will
change the computed travel costs. The transit travel cost (equivalent time) matrix is not saved as a standard
output.




GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                    Page 23
2.0      Supplementary Features
The following features are not part of the basic model but are either available, as supplementary macros, or
can be easily incorporated. Some have already been built into current Halton Region model applications.


2.1      Trucking

The basic modelling and assignment procedures do not include trucks. If total link volumes, including
trucks, is required as an output the recommended procedure is to apply appropriate adjustment factors to
the assigned auto volumes. A network calculation can be performed to apply different factors by link type,
vdf number or any other link attribute. Alternatively appropriate factors, calibrated on the basis of cordon
and other count data, can be stored as an extra attribute and applied more selectively. The latter approach
has been used with the Halton Region P.M. peak model.

2.2      Trip Length Adjustment

Trip distribution in the basic model is an extrapolation of existing travel patterns without consideration of
improvements in the network or other changes in level of service that might occur in the future. The trip
length adjustment procedure allows such changes to be taken into account. The home to work auto trip
distribution is modified to reflect projected changes in travel between zones based on the equilibrium
assignment of the initial trip table produced by the model. The simulated travel times for single occupant
vehicles from the initial trip distribution are compared with the base year (2001) travel times. An elasticity
factor is applied to increase, or decrease, the "impedance" value for each cell in the base matrix used as
input to the trip end balancing procedure. The result of the adjustment is to increase the number of trips
between origins and destinations where there is a projected improvement in travel time and to decrease the
number trips between zones where there is a projected increase in travel time. The sensitivity of the
adjustment is controlled by a coefficient the default value of which (0.03) has been set based on experience
with the a.m. Peak model. The default value will produce a trip length distribution that lies approximately
midway between one having the same mean trip length (km) and one having the same mean travel time as
the observed 2001 trip distribution.


2.3      HOV Assignment
The model includes routines to perform an HOV assignment and to estimate the number of new HOVs that
might be formed as a result of potential time savings. Both routines require a road network that has each
HOV lane coded as a separate series of nodes and links from the general use lanes. General use links
require the mode codes "i" and "j" in addition to the mode code "c". Links restricted to vehicles with two
or more occupants require the mode code "i" in addition to the mode code "c". Mode code "c" should be
the only auto mode on links restricted to vehicles with 3 more occupants.

The first step in the HOV assignment procedure is to stratify the total auto vehicle matrix into 3 matrices
representing 1 occupant, 2 occupant and 3 plus occupant vehicles. The stratification formulae are:
          P2 = 1.01(1- x)
          P3 = 0.16(1 - x)
Where
          x = mean auto occupancy used to convert auto person trips to auto vehicles (Table 6).
          P2 is the proportion of automobiles with two occupants
          P3 is the proportion of automobiles with three or more occupants.

The coefficients have been calibrated to provide a distribution that matches the auto occupancy distribution
observed across selected screen lines in the GTA. The observed distribution was obtained from available
Cordon Count data. The implied auto occupancy, calculated from the distribution, will be higher than that
GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                   Page 24
shown in Table 6 since the calibration takes into account persons under the age of 11 who are not included
in other components of the model. The coefficients may be modified if desired and are different from the
recommended values for use in the p.m. peak period (0.85 and 0.1).

A multiclass assignment is used to calculate link volumes and travel time matrices for each of the three
categories of vehicle (1 person, 2 persons and 3 plus persons). A second procedure estimates the number of
new HOVs that might be formed as a result of differences in travel time between the three categories. Two
factors are used to calculate the diversion. The first is the proportion of the occupants of single person
vehicles that will get together to form two person “car pools” for each minute of time saving that there is
between one and two person vehicles. The second factor is the proportion of one and two person vehicle
occupants that will combine to form three person “car pools” for each additional minute of time saving
between two and three person vehicles. The procedure has been tested using values of 0.02 and 0.01
respectively for these two factors reflecting the observed experience when carpool lanes were first
introduced on the Shirley highway in Washington D.C. The factors may be modified to reflect local
experience. A second multiclass assignment completes is performed to complete the procedure.

2.4      Zone Splitting

Zone splitting can be used to increase the level of network detail and assignment results for a specific sub-
area. The procedure to do that is to run the model using the existing zone system for which the model has
been calibrated. The trips contained in the resulting auto driver trip table are then re-distributed between
the sub-zones that make up each of the original zones on the basis of population and employment. A macro
is available to perform the re-distribution using the weights shown in Table 13. These weights have been
calculated on the basis of average trip generation rates and combination of trip purposes. The population
and employment numbers assigned to the sub-zones are used to determine the proportion of trips to be
assigned to each sub-zone. The total number of trips remains the same even if the total population or
employment differs from the zone total used to run the model.

          Table 13 - Population and Employment Weights for Zone Splitting


                                   Employment Weight                    Population weight
                                  Origins    Destinations            Origins       Destinations
              a.m. model           0.05          0.9                  0.95              0.1
              p.m. model           0.8          0.35                  0.2              0.65

The zone splitting procedure can be applied within the same emme2bank as was used to run the model
providing that the following rules are followed in assigning numbers to the sub-zones.

         1.     The original zone numbers are retained, either as one of the sub-zone numbers or as dummy
                zones with zero population and employment.
         2.     Any new zone numbers that are assigned must have a zone number higher than that of any
                existing zone.

Failure to adhere to the above rules will cause corruption of the matrix data already contained in the
emme2bank.




GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                      Page 25
3.0      Validation
Validation of the model consists primarily of comparisons between a 2001 "Base Case" simulation, the
2001 TTS data and available cordon count information. The network used in the calibration of the model
was Release 1 of the 2001 integrated network developed at the DMG. The same network, with minor
modifications made by City of Mississauga staff, was used in the validation.

3.1      Land Use Data

The trip generation rates and mode split factors have been calculated using the population and employment
data contained in the 1996 TTS database. The base case simulation (2001aa) uses a combination of
population from the census and employment data from the TTS. The total GTA population reported in the
TTS is 3.3% lower than that given by the census. The TTS is known to under represent infants, under the
age of 1, and seniors, over the age of 75, many of whom live in collective homes not included in the survey.
Since neither of these two categories of people is likely to make any significant number of trips the TTS
trip rates will be artificially high when applied to the total population. No adjustment has been made to the
trip rates but a global adjustment factor of .97 is recommended when applying the trip rates to population
estimates based on census data.

                             Table 14 - Population Data by Region

                                   2001 TTS                  2001 Census                Base Case (2001aa)
Toronto                             2,368,717                  2,476,177                    2,476,178
Durham                              492,197                       506,901                    506,897
York                                720,954                       729,254                    729,245
Peel                                954,231                       988,948                    988,947
Halton                              364,107                       375,229                    375,229
Hamilton                            485,957                       490,268                    490,275
Total GTA                           5,386,163                  5,566,777                     5,566,771


Employed Labour Force is not calculated or used directly in the model but is clearly a factor in determining
trip generation rates. Table 15 compares the TTS and Census data. The Census and TTS occurred at
different times of the year, which may account for some of the differences. There may also be some
difference due to definition, for example the census includes people who worked the previous week but
who were not actually employed on the day of the census. No adjustments to trip rates have been made or
are recommended at this time.


                       Table 15 - Employed Labour Force by Region

                               2001 TTS              2001 Census                    Difference
Toronto                        1,192,866              1,228,015               -35,149              -2.9%
Durham                          253,498                247,395                 6,103               2.5%
York                            379,915                387,620                 -7,705              -2.0%
Peel                            507,829                535,330                -27,501              -5.1%
Halton                          188,799                204,600                -15,801              -7.7%
Hamilton                        230,543                232,240                 -1,697              -0.7%
Total GTA                      2,753,450              2,835,200               -81,750              -2.9%

Table 16 provides a comparison of employment data. The same comments, with respect to timing and
definitions, apply as for the employed labour force. In addition the TTS employment figures do not include
workers who live outside the TTS area. Scaling factors have been applied to increase the total employment

GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                     Page 26
by approximately 2000 in the Region of Halton and approximately 9,500 in the City of Hamilton based on
previous estimates of the proportion of total employment in those areas that consists of residents from
outside the 2001 survey area. The census and adjusted TTS employment totals for the GTA are almost
identical. If future employment estimates are derived from either the TTS or census data no adjustment of
employment based trip rates should be necessary.

                                Table 16 - Employment by Region

                       2001 TTS             2001 Census          Base Case         Difference (Relative to the
                                                                 (2001aa)                   census)
Toronto                 1,339,544             1,327,610           1,339,544          11,934            0.9%
Durham                   164,319               163,550            164,319              769             0.5%
York                     353,380               350,165            353,380             3,215            0.9%
Peel                     480,866               487,495            480,866             -6,629           -1.4%
Halton                   163,067               173,940            165,071             -8,869           -5.1%
Hamilton                 182,599               188,370            192,106             3,736            2.0%
Total GTA               2,683,775             2,691,130           2,695,286           4,156            0.2%


3.2      Trip Generation, Mode Split and Distribution

Table 17 compares the simulated trip total in each trip category. The mean and standard deviation of trip
time shown have been generated using the travel matrix produced by an equilibrium assignment of the TTS
data to the road network. The simulation includes trip movements to and from some areas not included in
the TTS (Brant, Haldimand-Norfolk and the excluded sections of Northumberland, Peterborough, Simcoe,
Dufferin and Wellington Counties). Trips external to the GTA and Hamilton have been excluded from the
values shown in Table 17 in order to provide a consistent comparison. The simulated auto non-work trip
total is higher than the TTS data due to the adjustment of trip rates that takes into account the known under-
reporting of trips in that category in the TTS data.


Table 17 - Trip Totals and Travel Time Distributions within the GTA and Hamilton

                                             2001 TTS data               Base Case Simulation (2001aa)
   Trip Category                    Total trips    Minutes by road       Total trips   Minutes by road
                                                   Mean      S.D                       Mean       S.D
   GO Rail Work                          54,543      53.8      14.2           54,557     53.6       14.4
   Local Transit Work                   234,270      20.1      12.5          234,880     20.5       12.5
   Auto Work                          1,171,543      20.7      14.9        1,167,721     21.0       15.2
   Auto Non-Work                        709,716       9.6      11.2          738,353     10.1       11.5
   Local Transit School                 113,184      12.3      11.2          113,879     11.9       11.0
   Total auto person                  1,881,423      16.5      14.7        1,906,074     16.8       14.9
   Total GO Rail                         58,469      53.7      14.3           58,376     53.6       14.4
   Total local transit                  366,967      17.3      12.6          369,685     17.7       12.7
   Peak hour auto driver                700,232      16.1      13.5          720,936     15.7       13.3


The above comparison shows that the model reproduces both the number of observed (TTS) trips and the
observed trip length distributions with a high degree of accuracy in all trip categories.

Municipal self containment (the number of trips that have both the origin and destination within the same
municipal expressed as a percentage of the total origins or destinations for that municipality) is one
measure that reflects the characteristics of the trip distribution and the amount of travel (person or vehicle


GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                     Page 27
km) that are being generated in total. A high self containment factor is desirable from the point of view of
minimising total travel demand.

 Table 18 compares the base case simulated work trip self containment with the corresponding values
obtained from the TTS data. The table is for the a.m. peak period and includes trips by all modes that have
“work” as the destination trip purpose. Trips from work are excluded. Trips to and from areas outside the
GTA and Hamilton are also excluded from the origin and destination totals throughout for consistency with
the TTS data. The observed values from the 1986, 1996 and 2001 surveys are included to give an
indication of the historical trend.

Table 19 is similar to Table 18 but for peak period auto person and peak hour auto driver trips by origin
(generally the home end) only. The higher proportion of non-work trips should produce a slightly higher
level of self containment in the simulation relative to the TTS data since non-work trips are, on average,
less than half the length of work trips. The simulated peak hour driver trip matrix also includes the GO rail
auto egress, producing a further increase in peak hour self containment relative to the TTS.




GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                  Page 28
       Table 18 – Municipal Self Containment of a.m. Peak Period Work Trips

                           % of Total Work Trip Origins                    % of Total Work Trip Destinations
                1986 TTS     1996 TTS      2001 TTS       2001aa    1986 TTS   1996 TTS      2001 TTS          2001aa
PD1-Toronto           60             58            60          66         10           12            12             11
PD2-Toronto           11             11            12          19         25           25            26             42
PD3-Toronto           20             17            16          19         27           24            25             30
PD4-Toronto           17             15            16          19         19           18            18             20
PD5-Toronto           15             12            13          16         12           10            10             12
PD6-Toronto           13             11            12          16         34           31            31             45
PD7-Toronto           20             12            11          14         20           15            17             23
PD8-Toronto           16             18            16          18         21           19            18             20
PD9-Toronto           24             18            18          19         14           12            13             13
PD10-Toronto          29             27            23          25         23           17            17             18
PD11-Toronto          14             13            15          17         17           14            14             15
PD12-Toronto           7              7             7           8          9            7             7              7
PD13-Toronto          25             18            21          23         24           20            22             24
PD14-Toronto           5              5             5           6         19           19            16             21
PD15-Toronto           7              6             7           8         24           19            22             27
PD16-Toronto          12             16            19          20         21           19            20             24
Brock                 47             35            31          25         77           68            71             72
Uxbridge              23             24            25          24         51           52            50             53
Scugog                32             27            34          33         68           68            67             65
Pickering             14             13            15          14         21           21            23             23
Ajax                  21             15            14          14         31           29            27             27
Whitby                25             21            20          20         34           31            33             33
Oshawa                56             43            39          39         63           54            51             53
Clarington            40             24            26          24         48           57            61             60
Georgina              28             26            27          24         75           75            74             73
East
Gwillimbury            6              8             6           5         31           29            24             21
Newmarket             31             24            33          33         44           37            41             41
Aurora                19             19            17          18         29           32            30             31
Richmond Hill         20             18            14          15         27           23            24             25
Whit.-Stouff.         19             15            16          16         30           25            25             25
Markham               20             24            27          27         17           19            22             22
King                   9             11            13          12         27           27            25             21
Vaughan               18             24            27          29         12           18            24             24
Caledon               15             20            20          19         46           45            47             45
Brampton              40             34            35          36         55           51            52             55
Mississauga           43             45            50          51         44           44            44             46
Halton Hills          36             27            25          23         75           63            55             58
Milton                37             39            36          34         58           48            36             32
Oakville              36             32            28          29         43           38            32             33
Burlington            40             38            36          37         52           50            42             44
Flamborough           20             20            14          12         42           42            32             35
Dundas                18             17            16          21         40           29            39             51
Ancaster              15             13            14          13         30           28            27             30
Glanbrook              6              9            10          10         18           30            28             26
Stoney Creek          21             20            17          18         31           34            28             29
Hamilton              76             69            65          68         70           66            66             67




GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                Page 29
             Table 19 – Municipal Self Containment of Auto Trips by Destination

                             Peak Period Auto Person                       Peak Hour Auto Driver
                  1986 TTS    1996 TTS    2001 TTS     2001aa   1986 TTS   1996 TTS     2001 TTS    2001aa
PD1-Toronto             37           36           35       45         37          35           37        45
PD2-Toronto             15           17           22       26         15          15           19        25
PD3-Toronto             24           24           26       30         24          23           25        29
PD4-Toronto             27           27           31       34         22          21           26        31
PD5-Toronto             21           24           26       31         17          20           23        28
PD6-Toronto             21           23           24       27         17          19           20        27
PD7-Toronto             26           23           21       24         22          21           16        23
PD8-Toronto             26           34           35       39         24          31           30        36
PD9-Toronto             28           28           31       32         24          25           30        29
PD10-Toronto            32           34           32       36         29          34           31        34
PD11-Toronto            27           29           31       37         24          24           26        34
PD12-Toronto            13           18           19       20         13          13           15        18
PD13-Toronto            35           32           33       37         36          32           30        37
PD14-Toronto            15           16           22       21         11          10           18        21
PD15-Toronto            19           22           25       26         16          21           22        26
PD16-Toronto            22           34           34       36         19          28           29        34
Brock                   44           43           30       24         52          48           45        33
Uxbridge                32           39           40       38         37          39           45        41
Scugog                  38           40           44       42         40          44           42        45
Pickering               23           31           36       34         21          28           33        38
Ajax                    29           34           36       36         31          30           35        38
Whitby                  33           39           40       39         31          44           39        42
Oshawa                  64           57           56       56         67          57           60        57
Clarington              43           36           38       35         45          37           40        35
Georgina                35           34           39       36         49          42           48        42
East
Gwillimbury             10           14           13       12          9          17           12        12
Newmarket               41           40           48       48         40          40           52        51
Aurora                  27           34           33       34         25          33           33        34
Richmond Hill           24           34           34       35         21          31           31        32
Whit.-Stouff.           24           21           26       25         22          24           26        28
Markham                 28           43           46       45         26          39           45        43
King                    10           16           20       16          7          16           21        19
Vaughan                 21           35           40       41         19          29           37        39
Caledon                 21           31           28       25         18          29           36        29
Brampton                48           48           51       53         51          48           53        52
Mississauga             51           58           64       66         54          60           66        67
Halton Hills            42           40           39       37         45          37           39        40
Milton                  46           53           50       51         44          49           52        53
Oakville                50           52           54       54         45          52           54        56
Burlington              49           52           55       56         48          52           56        56
Flamborough             24           28           24       21         21          30           25        23
Dundas                  28           25           32       36         27          25           27        34
Ancaster                29           26           31       31         21          23           29        29
Glanbrook                7           12           11        9          5          14           11        10
Stoney Creek            28           30           27       27         30          28           29        26
Hamilton                76           74           73       75         78          74           73        75




GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                 Page 30
3.3      Road assignment

Table 20 shows comparisons between the simulated peak hour traffic volumes from the base case (2001aa)
assignment and cordon count data across the inter-regional screen lines within the GTA. The
corresponding volumes obtained from a peak hour assignment of the TTS data are included for comparison.
The simulated volumes are generally higher than the TTS volumes due to inclusion of simulated trips to
and from areas not included in the TTS and the adjustment of non-work trip rates to reflect the under-
reporting of those trips in the TTS.

The cordon count data were collected in the spring and summer of 2001 whereas the TTS data used to
calibrate the model were collected in the fall. On average the model under simulates the observed screen
line volumes in the peak direction by 2% and the reverse direction by 5%. The most serious discrepancy is
an 11% difference between the observed and simulated traffic across the East Toronto boundary. While
some of the percentage differences are larger across other screen lines the absolute magnitude of the
differences are smaller. A number of problems exist in using the cordon count data as a comparison base
for validation. The difference in timing relative to the TTS is one problem. Substantial variations in traffic
volumes can occur on a day to day basis but most of the counts are for a single day, not an average taken
over an extended period times. Anomalies in the cordon count data for individual count stations exist both
with respect to the counts taken in previous and the counts on adjacent links taken by different regions.

                     Table 20 – Inter-Regional Screen Line Comparisons

          Screen line            Dir    Cap.       Count       2001       Sim.     TTS/      sim/      Sim
                                        Vph                    TTS       2001aa    Count    count      v/c
         Peak Direction
 York > Toronto                 S        73600       49823     48984      49748      0.98     1.00       0.68
 Durham > Toronto               W        34700       30562     27185      26180      0.89     0.86       0.75
 Peel > Toronto                 E        50000       33499     33374      35029      1.00     1.05       0.70
 Halton > Peel                  E        30300       20135     16149      18746      0.80     0.93       0.62
 Peel > York                    E        13200        7619      8055       7597      1.06     1.00       0.58
 Durham > York                  W        14500        1049       891       1495      0.85     1.42       0.10
 Hamilton > Halton              N        14900       10628      9968      10416      0.94     0.98       0.70
 External > Halton              E        21300       12891      7450      12904      0.58     1.00       0.61
 External > York                S         6600        5550      5084       5517      0.92     0.99       0.84
 External > Durham              W        10400         993        55        634      0.06     0.64       0.06
 Total                                  269500      172749    157195     168266      0.91     0.97       0.62
       Reverse Direction
 York < Toronto                 N        73600       32629      30963     33498      0.95     1.03       0.46
 Durham < Toronto               E        34700        9762      10671      9430      1.09     0.97       0.27
 Peel < Toronto                 W        47400       24214      25870     24002      1.07     0.99       0.51
 Halton < Peel                  W        30200        8768       9471     10026      1.08     1.14       0.33
 Peel < York                    W        13200        8850       5334      5281      0.60     0.60       0.40
 Durham < York                  E        20000         529        567       508      1.07     0.96       0.03
 Hamilton < Halton              S        14900        7194       7979      6381      1.11     0.89       0.43
 External < Halton              W        21300        8107       4573      4283      0.56     0.53       0.20
 External < York                N         6600        1893       1731      1165      0.91     0.62       0.18
 External < Durham              E        10400         704        386       341      0.55     0.48       0.03
 Total                                  272300      102651      97545     94916      0.95     0.92       0.35




GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                   Page 31
The network representation, particularly the location of centroid connectors, and the correct identification
of the appropriate links that correspond to the count locations is also critical to the comparison. Each
discrepancy between simulated and observed volumes needs to be investigated individually to determine
the source of the problem (counts, network representation or the model). Such detailed validation needs to
be done on an area specific basis, usually as one of the first steps in a planning study. The initial focus of
the validation of the 2001 GTA model has been on the modelling needs of the City of Mississauga. Table
21 shows the results for the screen lines within the City of Mississauga. The network representation used
in these comparisons contains some minor modifications made by the City including some differences in
the selection of links that identify the inter-regional components of the screen lines. As a result the
volumes and capacities may not be entirely consistent with those shown in Table 20.

                Table 21 – City of Mississauga Screen Line Comparisons

A.M. Peak Hour - Peak Direction
             Screen line           Dir    Cap(1 hr)    count     01 TTS     2001aa     TTS/      sim/      sim
                                                                                       count    count      v/c
   Mississauga/Toronto             E         57900      39924      38483     39640       0.96     0.99     0.68
   Mississauga/Halton              E         32200      19524      16339     19073       0.84     0.98     0.59
   Credit River                    E         34500      32559      32811     33417       1.01     1.03     0.97
   E of Hwy 10 in Mississauga      E         44100      39047      27983     41265       0.72     1.06     0.94
   N of the QEW in Mississauga     N         11500       7602       5839      6837       0.77     0.90     0.59
   S of Hwy 401 in Mississauga     S         26000      14836      15781     14955       1.06     1.01     0.58
   Brampton/Mississauga            S         28700      21475      18091     20325       0.84     0.95     0.71
Total                                       234900     174967     155327    175511       0.89     1.00     0.75


A.M. Peak Hour - Reverse Direction
             Screen line           Dir    Capacity     count     01 TTS     2001aa     TTS/      sim/      sim
                                                                                       count    count      v/c
   Mississauga/Toronto             W         57900      30235      31875     29092       1.05     0.96     0.50
   Mississauga/Halton              W         32200      10597       8833     10027       0.83     0.95     0.31
   Credit River                    W         34500      18965      18775     15481       0.99     0.82     0.45
   E of Hwy 10 in Mississauga      W         42000      24571      28308     19413       1.15     0.79     0.46
   N of the QEW in Mississauga     S         11500       7459       6740      7833       0.90     1.05     0.68
   S of Hwy 401 in Mississauga     N         26000      19690      20117     22229       1.02     1.13     0.85
   Brampton/Mississauga            N         28700       9585       8183      8503       0.85     0.89     0.30
Total                                       232800     121102     122831    112577       1.01     0.93     0.48

2 Directions Combined                       467700     326844     302678    319241       0.93     0.98     0.68




GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                      Page 32
3.4       Transit assignment

Table 22 shows a comparison of the results obtained from a simulation run using the GTA A.M. model
with an assignment of the 2001 TTS data. In the validation of the TTS data showed that the number of a.m.
peak period transit trips reported was within 2% of actual TTC ridership counts. Reported GO Rail
ridership was within 3% of the counts. Peak period counts were not available for other transit operators.
Daily ridership differed by between -20% (Mississauga) and +65% (Richmond Hill) with the TTS numbers
being generally higher than the estimated counts provided by the transit operators.

        Table 22 – A.M. Peak Period Transit (GTA model – GO Rail included)

           Screen line               # of           Peak direction                # of       Reverse direction
                              Dir   routes    TTS       2001aa     Ratio   Dir   routes   TTS     2001aa       Ratio
Toronto
   North Toronto Boundary      S       45     23237      24443      1.05   N        33     5032       5968      1.19
   East Toronto Boundary       W        8     11513      12822      1.11   E         4      436        389      0.89
   West Toronto Boundary       E       64     38910      43002      1.11   W        42     3458       3159      0.91
   Humber River                E       53     55503      58270      1.05   W        37    12608      12506      0.99
   South of Hwy 401            S       76     67733      68161      1.01   N        48    23014      22809      0.99
   Bala Sub-division                   32     20391      22648      1.11   E        31     6488       7024      1.08
   Sub-total                          246    196895     206698      1.05           164    44548      44831      1.01
Peel
   Mississauga/Halton          E       21     16718       19933     1.19   W        13      904        500      0.55
   Credit River                E       38     20786       22850     1.10   W        25     2924       2454      0.84
   E of Hwy 10                 E       80     38812       39914     1.03   W        68     9855       6572      0.67
   N of the QEW in             N       12      1225        1242     1.01   S        16     9328       3865      0.41
   Mississauga
   S of Hwy 401 in             S       16      1300        1098     0.84   N        20     3137       2937      0.94
   Mississauga
   Brampton/Mississauga        S       14      3092        2699     0.87   N        19     1444       1094      0.76
   Peel/York                   E        4       447         304     0.68   W         2       38         45      1.20
   Sub-total                          185     82380       88040     1.07           163    27631      17467      0.63
York
   South York                  S       15      3228        3149     0.98   N         7      134        500      3.73
   East of Hwy 400             E        5      1277         884     0.69   W         7     2010       1622      0.81
   West of Hwy 404             E        8       740        1398     1.89   W        10     3066       2805      0.91
   Sub-total                           28      5245        5431     1.04            24     5210       4926      0.95
Durham
   South of Hwy 401            N       76     67733       68161     1.01   S        48    23014      22809      0.99

Total                                 535    352254     368330      1.05           399    100404     90033      0.90

Bi-direction total                    934    452658     458363      1.01




GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                 Page 33
4.0      Model Operation

4.1      Emme2bank

The emme2bank used to run the model may be a copy of an existing emme2bank already set up to run the
model or a new emme2bank can be created using the command “emme2 newbank”. If a new emme2bank
is created it will need to be initialised with the required base matrices, zone ensemble and extra attribute
data. The minimum recommended dimensions for a new emme2bank are shown in Table 23. The
emme2bank will use about 800 Mbytes of disk space.

                              Table 23 – Emme2bank Dimensions
                  Attribute                                                  Dimension
                  Scenarios                                                       20
                  Centroids                                                     1750
                  Nodes                                                        16,000
                  Links                                                        40,000
                  Turns                                                         8,000
                  Transit vehicle types                                           10
                  Transit lines                                                  800
                  Transit line segments                                        35,000
                  Full matrices                                                   50
                  Origin matrices                                                200
                  Destination matrices                                           200
                  Scalars                                                        999
                  Functions per class                                             99
                  Operators per function                                        2,000
                  Log book                                                       500
                  Demarcation entries                                            100
                  Extra attributes                                            1 million

If the same emme2bank is to be used to run the GTA p.m. model it is recommended that the minimum
number of full matrices is increased to 150 and the minimum number of scenarios to 30. This larger
emme2bank will require 1.3 Gbytes of disk space.

Matrices

The matrices used in the running of the model are identified by name, not number. The matrix numbers
may vary as each matrix is assigned to the first available number when first initiated. Matrix names
generally consist of 4 characters, the first 2 of which are always the letters “am”. The other two characters
are generally those used as the matrix number in the previous version of the model. An exception to the
previous naming convention is the scalars used to store the results of the transit assignment. These values
result from network calculations the output of which has to be stored in a scalar matrix identified by I.D.,
not name. Appendix A contains a listing of the current matrix directory. Table 24 provides a summary of
the current allocation by primary function.

The matrices used as input to the trip distribution component of the model have been pre-loaded along with
the base matrices containing the 2001 travel times and GO Rail egress trips. For most applications of the
model these matrices do not require modification and should be protected from accidental modification.
The matrices are listed in Table 25. It is important to remember than cell values in the base matrices used
as input to the trip distribution represent relative probabilities, not trips. They include values for cells
where the existing row and/or column trip totals are zero. The matrices must be balanced to the required
row and column trip totals before a meaningful trip assignment can be performed.

GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                  Page 34
                                      Table 24 - Matrix Allocation Table

          Matrix name        Status             Description
          msam
          01-26              User Defined       Input parameters
          27-58              Calculated         Performance Indicators
          59-67              Calculated         Validation check totals
          99                 Reserved           Internal use
          ms (Matrix I.D.)
          201-212            Calculated         Transit assignment performance indicators
          moam or mdam
          01-13              User Defined       Trip rates and mode split factors
          18                 User Defined       Population/Employment
          20-41              Calculated         Trip end totals
          42-51              Calculated         Performance Indicators (by zone or link aggregation)
          97-99              Reserved           Internal use
          mfam
          01-09              Protected          Base case trip distribution & other input matrices
          17-31              Calculated         Simulated trip and travel time matrices



                                            Table 25 – Base Matrices

                                 mfam01              Home to work Auto
                                 mfam02              Home to work GO Rail
                                 mfam03              Home to work local transit
                                 mfam04              Non-work auto
                                 mfam05              Local transit school
                                 mfam06              From home transit
                                 mfam07              2001 travel times
                                 mfam08              Auto occupancy factors
                                 mfam09              Background traffic (GO Rail
                                                     & subway auto access)

Zone Ensembles

A number of zone ensembles have been pre-defined or allocated for specific purposes as shown in Table
26.

                                          Table 26 – Zone Ensembles

                                  Letter      Description and/or use
                                  A           Calibration of trip distribution
                                  G           Calibration & Input of trip generation Rates
                                  M           Calibration & Input of mode split factors
                                  P           Planning district
                                  R           Regions
                                  S           GO Station catchment areas
                                  Q           Output of performance indicators

Volume Delay Functions

The 2001-travel time matrix currently contained in the emme2bank was generated using tangential volume
delay functions, also contained in the emme2bank. These times are used as the base reference in applying
peak hour factors and in calculating a number of performance indicators.



GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                    Page 35
The application of tolls can be taken into account in the auto assignment by adding the time equivalent of
the toll to the appropriate volume delay function. This is done by appending " + X * length" to the end of
the function. The appropriate value of X is determined from an assumed value of travel time and the toll
rate using the expression:

         X = Toll rate ($ per km) * 60 / value of travel time ($ per hr)
A travel time value of $24 per hour (X = 0.25) has been found to produce the best results under existing
conditions. It should be noted, however, that each person has a different value of travel time. When free
flow conditions exist on parallel routes only those people who put a high value on their time are likely to
use a toll facility. As congestion levels on parallel routes increase it becomes worthwhile for those with a
lower value of travel time to pay the toll. In theory it is therefore not appropriate to assume a constant
value of travel time for all drivers. Unfortunately it is not possible to incorporate a sliding scale, depending
on link conditions elsewhere in the network, into the volume delay functions.

Network Scenarios

It is recommended that a new scenario be created for each model run. The current base road network was
developed prior to the 2001 re-calibration of the model. Many of the node numbers are not consistent with
the 2001 Integrated GTA network developed by the DMG.

Extra Attribute Data

Table 27 lists the extra attributes that have to be defined prior to any application that requires their use.

                                       Table 27 - Extra Attributes

          Attribute   Type       Required for                   Description
          @board      Line       Transit assignment             Passenger boardings
          @truck      Link       User calculations (optional)   User defined - % truck traffic
          @lkagg      Link       Performance Indicators         User defined

It is recommended that user field ul1 be used to identify cordon count stations for the output of screen line
data. The recommended procedure is described in section 4.10.

4.2      Macros

The macros that run the model have been developed as independent modules. A master macro
“pmod.mac” calls the modules in the proper sequence. Table 28 shows the current list of macros including
those used in the supplementary features (Trip length adjustment and HOV assignment).




GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                      Page 36
                                          Table 28 - Macros

             Macro name       Function
             amod.mac         Calls the other macros in the required order
             amod0            Sets run ID and calling arguments used by subsequent macros
             amod1            Updates matrix input data using an external file
             amod2            Work trip generation, mode split and distribution
             amod4            Non work trip generation and distribution. Matrix aggregation
             amod5            Transit assignment
             amod6            Road assignment
             amod7            Performance Indicator and trip end summary report
             amod8            Modal split and auto performance report
             amod9            Link aggregation performance report
             amod10           Trip length adjustment
             amod11           Road assignment with HOV lanes
             amod12           Generation of new HOVs

The master macro "amod.mac" can be edited to include only those macros that are required for a given run.
The macros need to be run in the correct sequence but do not necessarily have to be run as a single batch
process provided that no modifications are made to the emme2bank between runs. The macro "amac0"
must be repeated as the first macro in each stage. If any performance reports have already been generated
the output file should be copied, or renamed, prior to running the next stage otherwise the information in it
will be lost.

 The macro "amod0" requires three calling arguments defined in the master macro (amod.mac). Those
arguments are:
        Arg1    The name used to identify the run (Max 6 alphanumeric characters with no spaces)
        Arg2    The emme/2 scenario number for the road assignment
        Arg3    The emme/2 scenario number for the transit assignment (may be the same as Arg2)

The macros “amod7”, “amod8” and “amod9” generate the reports that summarize the results of the model
run. These reports are written to the file “Arg1_am.rep”. Any previous file of that name is deleted. The
link summaries generated by “amod9” are computer intensive and time consuming to produce. It is
recommended that “amod9” be skipped if a fast turn around is required. The report can be
generated later.

The macro “amod10” performs the trip length adjustment described in section 2.2. The macro also re-
calculates the total auto person and peak hour auto driver trip matrices. Macros “amod6” through “amod9”
must be repeated in order to obtain the revised assignment results and performance indicators.

The macros “amod11” and “amod12” are used to perform the HOV assignment procedures described in
section 2.4. “amod11” stratifies the auto driver matrix into 1, 2 and 3+ occupants and performs the initial
multiclass assignment. “amod12” estimates the number of new HOV that might be forms as a result of the
difference in travel time, and then performs a new multiclass assignment using the revised trip matrices.

The recommended way to disable one or more of the sub-macros is to insert a "/" as the 2nd character of the
call line thus making it into a comment line. The following is an example of the master macro file
“amod.mac” modified to run (or re-run) just the auto assignment and performance indicator summaries.

         username
         ~<amod0 2001aa 2001 2001
         ~/<amod1
         ~/<amod2
         ~/<amod3
GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                  Page 37
         ~/<amod4
         ~/<amod5
         ~<amod6
         ~<amod7
         ~<amod8
         ~<amod9
         q

The following command line will execute the above macro in batch mode.
         emme2 -m amod.mac batch >&filename&
Where "filename" is a temporary file used for output of the emme2 dialog.

4.3      Input Data

The macro "amod1" reads matrix input data contained in the file "x_am", where "x" is the first argument
used to call "amod0". This file may be used to selectively modify the simulation parameters (msam01
through msam26), enter population and employment data and to redefine the trip generation rates and/or
mode split factors as desired. It is recommended that matrices requiring change be deleted and re-created
rather than modifying the values in the existing matrix. The macro will then run even if the there is no
existing matrix of that name whereas attempting to modify a non-existing matrix will cause a fatal area. If
modifying an existing matrix it is important to remember that only the cells that are specified are changed.
It is therefore essential to include zero values in the list.

The basic inputs required for a model run are a network and land use data (population and employment) by
zone. The population data must be stored as origin matrix moam18 and the employment data as destination
matrix mdam18. The population and employment data is usually imported in the "x_am" file at the start of
the model run.

Table 29 provides a list of the other input parameters that can be modified, together with recommended
values for the years 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021. The 2021 values are also recommended for
subsequent years. The recommended method of modification is to include specification of the desired
scalar matrices and values in the "x_am" file for each model run. Any scalars not included will retain the
values from the previous run.

It is recommended that a new "x_am" file be created for each model run using an appropriate name to
identify the year and development scenario. The file should be saved, along with the output summary
report, in order to provide a complete record of the input data for that model run. Every "x_am" file should
include specification of values for all of the scalars listed in Table 29 as well as any origin or destination
vectors that may be selectively modified for different years or simulation scenarios. The inclusion of all
the scalar values in the appropriate "x_am" file will help prevent the accidental use of the wrong values
from a previous run.




GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                   Page 38
             Table 29 - Recommended "Base Case" Input Parameter Values

msam Description                                       2001        2006        2011       2016        2021

  01    Work trip origin factor                        0.97        0.95        0.92        0.89        0.85
  02    Work trip destination factor                      1            1          1            1           1
  03    Auto non-work origin factor                    0.97            1       1.04        1.07        1.10
  04    Local transit School factor                    0.97        0.97        0.97        0.97        0.97
  05    Work trip origin weight                           1            1          1            1           1
  06    Work trip other m/s factor                        1            1          1            1           1
  07    Work trip GO Rail m/s factor                      1            1          1            1           1
  08    Work trip transit m/s factor                      1            1          1            1           1
  09    M/s origin weight - other mode                  0.5         0.5         0.5         0.5          0.5
  10    M/s origin weight – GO Rail                     0.3         0.3         0.3         0.3         0.3
  11    M/s origin weight - Local Transit               0.5          0.5        0.5          0.5        0.5
  12    GO Rail non work factor                        1.07        1.07        1.07        1.08        1.08
  13    Local transit excluded factor                  1.06        1.06        1.06        1.07        1.07
  15    Peak hour factor for short trips               0.48        0.48        0.48        0.48        0.48
  16    Peak hour factor for long trips                0.27        0.27        0.27        0.27        0.27
  17    Upper bound for short trips (mins.)              20          20          20          20          20
  18    Lower bound for long trips (mins.)               50          50          50          50          50
  19    Background traffic factor                         1         1.1        1.25         1.4         1.5
  20    2 Person HOV conversion factor                 0.03        0.03        0.03        0.03        0.03
  21    3 Person HOV conversion factor                 0.02        0.02        0.02        0.02        0.02
  22    Auto occupancy adjustment factor                  1            1          1            1           1
  23    Trip length adjustment coefficient             0.03        0.03        0.03        0.03        0.03
  24    2 person hov coefficient                       1.01        1.01        1.01        1.01        1.01
  25    3 person hov coefficient                      0.016       0.016       0.016       0.016       0.016


4.4     Modification of Trip Generation Rates and Mode Split Factors

The base trip generation rates and mode split factors may be modified in one of the following ways prior to
running the model.

        1.    Changing the appropriate global adjustment factor(s). (See table 29)
        2.    Performing matrix calculations to adjust the base case data. Zone groupings may be used to
              perform selective calculations.
        3.    Importing new rates or factors to the required matrices. The required matrices may be
              included in the "x_am" file at the start of each model run.

4.5     Trip Distribution

The trip distribution can be modified by the creation of a new base matrix for the desired mode and trip
purpose combination(s) (mfam01 through mfam06). It is recommended that a protected copy of the
original matrix be made prior to removing the protection from the matrix to be modified. Applying a factor
greater than 1 to the desired cells in the original base matrix will increase the number of simulated trips
between those O-D pairs. A factor of less than 1 will reduce the number of the trips. The magnitude of the
GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                Page 39
change, however, is likely to be less than the factor applied due to the moderating effect of the trip end
balancing procedure.

4.6        Auto Occupancy

The auto occupancy matrix (mfam08) may be modified by:

           1.     Applying the appropriate global adjustment factor (msam22).
           2.     Performing matrix calculations on the base case matrix (mfam08) as input
           3.     Importing a new matrix (mfam08).


4.7        Background Traffic (GO Rail Egress)

(This section still needs to be updated from 1996).

In the current applications of the model the background traffic matrix (mfpm12) is used to represent the
auto egress component of trips made by GO Rail. The matrix may be modified by:

      1.        Applying the appropriate global adjustment factor (ms36).
      2.        Applying origin specific adjustment factors (mo9). Table 30 identifies the GTA traffic zones
                  that contain GO Rail stations together with recommended growth factors for the years 2001
                  and 2011. These factors are based on the observed growth in GO Rail ridership between 1996
                  and May of 2000 and projected GO Rail ridership based on GO Transit's 10-year capital
                  development plan. The projections assume no change in egress mode split and do not take
                  into account future parking constraints. Table 31 identifies the zones associated with subway
                  park n' ride and reported use in 1996 (TTS data).
      3.        Performing matrix calculations using the protected copy of the base case matrix (mf12) as input.
      4.        Importing a new matrix (mf15)

                          Table 30 - GO Rail Stations and Growth Factors

                                                     96 TTS      96 > 00        Recommended
                         GTA                         Pm peak Obs. Growth        Growth Factors
                         Zone             Station   driver egr. Total riders      2001      2011
                            16    Mimico                    66           0.95         1          1
                              1   Long Branch              102           1.07         1          1
                          1547    Port Credit              849           0.96         1          1
                          1539    Clarkson                1809           1.13       1.1        1.1
                          2014    Oakville                1416           1.06      1.1         1.5
                          2003    Oakville West            509           1.44      1.5         1.6
                          2077    Appleby                  443           1.48       1.5        1.6
                          2059    Burlington               698           1.44       1.5        1.5
                          2052    Aldershot                110           1.63         2          2
                          2520    Hamilton                  95           2.88         3          3
                           368    Danforth                  60           0.81         1          1
                           402    Scarborough              502           1.66       1.7        1.7
                           405    Eglinton                 438           1.38      1.4         1.5
                           458    Guildwood                262           1.12       1.1        1.2
                           449    Rouge Hill               694           1.17       1.2        1.3
                           541    Pickering               1338           1.02         1        1.5
                           569    Ajax                     851           1.08       1.1        1.3
                           616    Whitby                  1085           1.48       1.5        1.8
                           664    Oshawa                   526           1.54       1.5        1.7
                            22    Kipling                  102           1.07         1          1
                          1561    Dixie                    338           1.25       1.3        1.3
                          1566    Cooksville               684           1.28      1.3         1.3

GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                     Page 40
                 1578   Erindale                          646      1.07       1.1   1.4
                 1503   Streetsville                      265      1.88         2     4
                 1512   Meadowvale                        418      1.23       1.3     3
                 2124   Milton                            299      1.15       1.2   2.5
                  169   Bloor                               0      1.02         1     1
                  124   Weston                            132      1.27       1.3   1.3
                   61   Etobicoke North                   315      1.35       1.4   1.4
                 1611   Malton                            194      1.50       1.5     2
                 1629   Bramalea                          526      1.37       1.4     2
                 1649   Brampton                          830      1.13       1.1     2
                 2164   Georgetown                        243      1.24       1.3     3
                 1076   Maple                              76      2.53         3   4.5
                 1286   King City                          71      2.19         2     3
                 1239   Aurora                            174      1.99         2     3
                 1254   Newmarket                         229      1.76         2     3
                 4100   Bradford                          173      2.56         3     4
                  324   Oriole                            142      0.91         1     1
                  328   Old Cummer                        151      1.34       1.4   1.4
                 1150   Langstaff                         316      1.47       1.5   1.7
                 1122   Richmond Hill                     468      1.12       1.1   1.5
                  380   Agincourt                         132      1.74         2     2
                 1181   Milliken                           20      1.86         2     3
                 1185   Unionville                        213      1.80         2     4
                 1206   Markham                           207      1.69       1.8     4
                 1331   Stouffville                         0      1.57       1.6     3



                            Table 31 - Subway Park and Ride

                                                                  96 TTS
                                                                 pm peak
                                    Zone        Station            Driver
                                                                    egr.
                                           33   Kipling               1072
                                           34   Islington              757
                                           45   Old Mill               130
                                           98   Downsview                91
                                          104   Lawrence West            59
                                          106   Wilson                 914
                                          142   Keele                    81
                                          143   High Park                80
                                          144   Runnymede                39
                                          157   Dundas W                 64
                                          169   Keele                    98
                                          196   Castlefrank              72
                                          199   St Clair                 89
                                          225   Union                  218
                                          232   Bloor/Yonge              83
                                          258   Broadview                90
                                          262   Greenwood                57
                                          295   Yorkdale              1084
                                          300   York Mills             207
                                          307   Shepperd               259
                                          317   Finch                 2435
                                          396   Victoria Park          177
                                          399   Warden                 369
                                          410   Kennedy                859
                                          426   Scarborough TC           55




GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                       Page 41
4.8      Other Adjustment Factors

Other factors that can be adjusted prior to a model run are:

         1.   The weight assigned to the work trip origin total relative to the work trip destination total.
         2.   The weight assigned to the origin trip totals by mode relative to the destination total for the
              same mode.
         3.   GO Rail non-work factor.
         4.   Local transit excluded factor.

Refer to Table 29 or Appendix A in order to identify the appropriate matrix scalars.


4.9      Model Outputs

The primary outputs from a simulation run are the trip matrices and network assignments. Analysis of the
results is possible within emme/2 or selected data may be exported for external analysis. Assignment
results will remain in the emme2bank until the applicable scenario is deleted, modified or used for another
model run. Subsequent model runs will over write matrix information.

The macro “amod7” produces a report listing the values of all the matrix scalars contained in the
emme2bank. This report can be used as a permanent record of the input parameters, control totals,
calculated trip totals and global performance indicators.

The macros “amod7” and “amod8” produce reports that summarise trip data by the zone groups contained
in zone ensemble “gq”. Figure 4 shows the groupings as they are currently defined in the emme2bank.

                     Figure 6 - Aggregations Used for Output Summaries
                                                (To be added)

The macro “amod7” produces two reports containing the following information

         Report 1
            • Population.
                  Employment
                  Total trip origins
                  Work tip destinations
                  Non-work destinations

         Report 2
                    GO Rail origins
                    Local transit origins
                    Auto person origins
                    Peak hour auto driver origins
                    GO Rail destinations
                    Local transit destinations
                    Auto person destinations
                    Peak hour auto driver destinations

Calculated performance indicators contained in the report produced by “amod8”
         • Activity rate (jobs per 1000 population)
             Origin transit modal split (all trips)
             Destination transit mode split (all trips)
             Self-containment (% of all trip destinations that have their origin within the same zone group).

GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                     Page 42
              Mean auto person trip time by destination based on 1996 Levels of Service.
              Mean auto person trip time by destination based on the projected level of service given by an
              equilibrium assignment to a future network.
              Mean auto occupancy by destination

The macro “amod9” calculates totals and averages for link aggregations defined by non-zero values of the
extra link attribute "@lkagg". The report that is produced contains the following for each category of link.
               Number of links in the aggregation
               Total assigned vehicle km
               Total assigned vehicle hours
               Mean speed (kph)
               Capacity utilisation (assigned vehicle km / vehicle km of capacity)
               Total link volume
               Volume to capacity ratio
The calculation of capacity utilisation differs from volume to capacity ratio in that the length of each link in
the aggregation is used to weight the result. Capacity utilisation is the appropriate measure to use as the
average for a geographic area.

The link categories may be used to define screen lines, geographic areas, categories of road, or any
combinations of these attributes. The extra link attribute “@lkagg” must be created prior to running
“amod9”.

The output reports are generated using the standard emme/2 output modules 3.12 and 3.14. There are some
limitations inherent in that format.
              The emme/2 report format shows the sum, mean, minimum and maximum values at the end of
              each table. The mean value shown is an un-weighted average that does not take into account
              the different sizes of the aggregations.
              Origin and destination vectors are used to store the results of the calculations for each link
              aggregation. The zone numbers shown are the reference numbers for each link aggregations
              used in these vectors. There is no relationship to actual zones or zone system other than that a
              zone numbers must be defined as centroids in the network in order for them to be used as
              valid reference numbers.

Other matrix and link attribute data may be exported for external analysis using modules 3.14 and 2.41...




GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                                    Page 43
Appendix A - Emme/2 Matrix Directory
Note – the matrix I.D. numbers are from the GTA model development emme2bank. These numbers may
differ from those used in other emme2banks.
Matrix Directory
----------------

Matrix:       Flags:   Modified:          Description:                                  Value:

ms01: am01             03-04-06   10:26   Work trip origin factor                           .97
ms02: am02             03-04-06   10:26   Work trip destination factor                      .97
ms03: am03             03-04-06   10:26   auto non-work factor                              .97
ms04: am04             03-04-06   10:26   transit non-work factor                           .97
ms05: am05             03-04-06   10:26   Work Trip origin weight (1)                         1
ms06: am06             03-04-06   10:26   Work trip other m/s adjustment (1)                  1
ms07: am07             03-04-06   10:26   Work trip GO Rail m/s adjustment (1)                1
ms08: am08             03-04-06   10:26   Work trip transit m/s adjustment (1)                1
ms09: am09             03-04-06   10:26   m/s origin weight - other mode (0.5)               .5
ms10: am10             03-04-06   10:26   m/s origin weight - GO Rail (0.3)                  .3
ms11: am11             03-04-06   10:26   m/s origin weight - local transit (0.5)            .5
ms12: am12             03-04-06   10:26   GO Rail non work factor (1.07)                   1.07
ms13: am13             03-04-06   10:26   Local transit excluded factor (1.06)             1.06
ms14: am15             03-04-06   10:26   Peak hour factor for short trips (.48)            .48
ms15: am16             03-04-06   10:26   Peak hour factor for long trips (.27)             .27
ms16: am17             03-04-06   10:26   Upper limit for short trips (20 minutes)           20
ms17: am18             03-04-06   10:26   Lower limit for long trips (50 minutes)            50
ms18: am19             03-04-06   10:26   Background traffic factor (1)                       1
ms19: am22             03-04-06   10:26   Auto occupancy adjustment                           1
ms20: am23             03-04-06   10:26   Trip length adjustment coefficient (.03)          .03
ms21: am24             03-04-06   10:26   2 person HOV coefficient (1.01)                  1.01
ms22: am25             03-04-06   10:26   3+ person HOV coefficient (.16)                   .16
ms23: am26             03-04-06   10:26   new HOV coefficient (.01)                         .01
ms24: am27             03-04-06   10:28   2001aa Total population                       7574639
ms25: am28             03-04-06   10:28   2001aa Total employment                       3480452
ms26: am29             03-04-06   10:28   2001aa Employment per 1000 population             459
ms27: am30             03-04-06   10:35   2001aa Peak hour auto driver trips            1027949
ms28: am31             03-04-06   10:27   home to work total trips                      2023195
ms29: am32             03-04-06   10:27   2001aa Home to work other trips                 74232
ms30: am33             03-04-06   10:27   2001aa Home to work GO trips                    55686
ms31: am34             03-04-06   10:27   2001aa Home to work transit trip total         241633
ms32: am35             03-04-06   10:28   2001aa home to work auto trips                1651644
ms33: am41             03-04-06   10:32   2001aa non-work auto trips                    1032850
ms34: am42             03-04-06   10:33   2001aa local transit school trips              115189
ms35: am46             03-04-06   10:34   2001aa total auto person trips                2684495
ms36: am47             03-04-06   10:35   2001aa total GO Rail trips                      59517
ms37: am48             03-04-06   10:36   2001aa total transit trips                     374912
ms38: am49             02-11-26   14:31   initialized                                         0
ms39: am50             02-11-26   14:31   initialized                                         0
ms40: am51             02-11-26   14:31   initialized                                         0
ms41: am52             02-11-26   14:31   initialized                                         0
ms42: am53             02-11-26   14:31   initialized                                         0
ms43: am54             02-11-26   14:31   initialized                                         0
ms44: am55             02-11-26   14:31   initialized                                         0
ms45: am56             02-11-26   14:31   initialized                                         0
ms46: am57             02-11-26   14:31   initialized                                         0
ms47: am58             02-11-26   14:31   initialized                                         0
ms48: am59             03-04-06   10:31   2001aa Unadj. Non work auto origins        1120141824
ms49: am60             03-04-06   10:31   2001aa unadj non-work auto destinations    1009447488
ms50: am61             03-04-06   10:27   Unadj. Home to work origin total           2023195904
ms51: am62             03-04-06   10:27   Unadj. Home to work Dest total             1927924096
ms52: am63             03-04-06   10:27   unadjusted home to work other origins         7366205
ms53: am64             03-04-06   10:27   unadj. home to work other dest.             7480266.5
ms56: am70             02-11-26   14:31   initialized                                         0
ms57: am71             02-11-26   14:31   initialized                                         0
ms68: am65             03-04-06   10:27   unadj. home to work GO origins                5543103
ms69: am66             03-04-06   10:27   unadj. home to work GO dest.                  5579578
ms94: am67             03-04-06   10:27   unadj. home to work transit origins          23966322
ms95: am68             03-04-06   10:27   unadj. home to work transit dest.            24360424
ms201:am201            03-04-07   12:41   2001aa am subway boardings                     272204
ms202:am202            03-04-07   12:41   2001aa am subway passenger km                 1841501
ms203:am203            03-04-07   12:41   2001aa am streetcar boardings                   43889
ms204:am204            03-04-07   12:41   2001aa am streetcar passenger km               139859
ms205:am205            03-04-07   12:41   2001aa am TTC bus boardings                    279679
ms206:am206            03-04-07   12:41   2001aa am TTC bus passenger km                1136578
ms207:am207            03-04-07   12:41   2001aa am GO Rail boardings                     52286
ms208:am208            03-04-07   12:41   2001aa am GO Rail passenger km                1684071
ms209:am209            03-04-07   12:41   2001aa am GO Bus boardings                      54751

GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                               Page 44
ms210:am210           03-04-07 12:41     2001aa am GO Bus passenger km              858153
ms211:am211           03-04-07 12:41     2001aa am other bus boardings               85408
ms212:am212           03-04-07 12:41     2001aa am other bus passenger km           509817

mo02: am01            03-04-06   10:19   tts01 home to work generation rate
mo03: am03            03-04-06   10:19   tts01 non-work auto origin rate
mo06: am05            03-04-06   10:19   tts01 local transit school rate
mo07: am11            03-04-06   10:19   2001TTS Home to work other m/s
mo08: am12            03-04-06   10:19   2001TTS Home to work GO Rail m/s
mo10: am13            03-04-06   10:19   2001TTS Home to work transitl m/s
mo114:am18            03-04-06   10:26   2001aa Validation - Population
mo14: am20            03-04-06   10:31   2001aa non-work pre-bal auto origins
mo15: am22            03-04-06   10:32   2001aa non-work auto origins
mo16: am23            03-04-06   10:33   2001aa local transit school origins
mo17: am27            03-04-06   10:33   2001aa total auto person origins
mo18: am28            03-04-06   10:35   2001aa total GO Rail origins
mo19: am29            03-04-06   10:36   2001aa total transit origins
mo20: am30            03-04-06   10:19   initialized
mo21: am31            03-04-06   10:27   2001aa Home to work total origins
mo22: am32            03-04-06   10:27   2001aa Home to work other origins
mo23: am33            03-04-06   10:27   Home to work GO origins
mo24: am34            03-04-06   10:28   2001aa Home to work transit origins
mo25: am35            03-04-06   10:28   2001aa Home to work auto origins
mo26: am41            03-04-07   12:41   2001aa Total origins
mo27: am42            03-04-07   12:42   2001aa employment per 1000 population
mo28: am43            03-04-06   10:34   2001aa Peak hour auto driver origins
mo29: am44            03-04-07   12:43   2001aa self containment (% of orig.)
mo30: am45            03-04-07   12:43   2001aa origin transit m/s (%)
mo31: am46            03-04-07   12:43   2001aa mean auto person time (01LOS)
mo86: am47            03-04-07   12:43   2001aa mean auto person time (equi.)
mo105:am48            03-04-06   10:19   initialized
mo109:am50            03-04-06   10:19   initialized
mo110:am51            03-04-06   10:19   initialized
mo111:am97            03-04-07   12:43   temp - aggregated auto time (equil.)
mo112:am98            03-04-07   12:44   temp - auto drivers excl. extras
mo113:am99            03-04-07   12:43   temp - aggregated auto persons

md01:   am02          03-04-06   10:19   tts01 home to work generation rate
md06:   am04          03-04-06   10:19   tts01 non-work auto destination rate
md07:   am11          03-04-06   10:19   2001TTS Home to work other m/s
md08:   am12          03-04-06   10:19   2001TTS Home to work GO Rail m/s
md09:   am13          03-04-06   10:19   2001TTS Home to work transit m/s
md10:   am14          03-04-06   10:19   Background traffic factors (GO access)
md95:   am18          03-04-06   10:26   2001aa vaidation - Employment
md14:   am20          03-04-06   10:31   2001aa non-work pre-bal auto dest
md15:   am22          03-04-06   10:32   2001aa non-work auto destinations
md16:   am23          03-04-06   10:33   2001aa local transit school dest.
md17:   am27          03-04-06   10:33   2001aa total auto person dest.
md18:   am28          03-04-06   10:35   2001aa total GO Rail dest.
md19:   am29          03-04-06   10:36   2001aa total transit dest.
md20:   am31          03-04-06   10:27   2001aa Total work destinations
md21:   am32          03-04-06   10:27   2001aa Home to work other destinations
md22:   am33          03-04-06   10:27   Home to work GO destinations
md23:   am34          03-04-06   10:28   2001aa Home to work transit destinations
md24:   am35          03-04-06   10:28   2001aa Home to work auto destinations
md25:   am41          03-04-06   10:19   initialized
md71:   am42          03-04-07   12:41   2001aa Non-work destinations
md80:   am43          03-04-06   10:34   2001aa Peak hour auto driver dest.
md89:   am45          03-04-07   12:43   2001aa destination transit m/s (%)
md90:   am48          03-04-06   10:19   initialized
md91:   am49          03-04-06   10:19   initialized
md92:   am51          03-04-06   10:19   initialized
md93:   am98          03-04-07   12:42   temp - transit (agg)
md94:   am99          03-04-07   12:42   temp - auto + Go + Transit (agg)

mf01:   am01   /r     03-02-15   20:58   Auto work trip distribution
mf02:   am02   /r     03-01-17   19:38   GO Rail trip distribution
mf03:   am03   /r     03-01-17   20:44   Local transit trip distribution
mf04:   am04   /r     03-02-15   21:00   Auto non_work trip distribution
mf05:   am05   /r     02-11-24   12:09   Local transit school trip distribution
mf06:   am06   /r     02-11-24   12:11   Auto driver background traffic
mf07:   am07   /r     03-01-20   06:58   2001 am peak travel times
mf08:   am08   /r     03-04-06   10:19   auto occupancy factors
mf09:   am09   /r     02-11-24   12:14   Background traffic
mf17:   am11          03-04-06   10:29   2001aa home to work GO rail
mf18:   am12          03-04-06   10:29   2001aa home to work transit
mf19:   am13          03-04-06   10:30   2001aa home to work auto
mf32:   am14          03-04-06   10:32   2001aa non-work auto person trips
mf33:   am15          03-04-06   10:32   2001aa local transit school
mf34:   am16          03-04-06   10:33   2001aa total auto person
mf37:   am17          03-04-06   10:35   2001aa total GO Rail

GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                          Page 45
mf99: am18            03-04-06   10:35   2001aa total transit
mf100:am21            03-04-06   10:56   2001aa auto travel times
mf103:am27            03-04-06   10:34   2001aa Peak hour auto driver trips
mf104:am31            03-04-06   10:31   temp non-work auto origins




GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                           Page 46
Appendix B - Sample Printout of Performance Indicators
EMME/2 Module: 3.14        Date: 03-06-18 12:02       User: E145/DMG.UTYU..pmd           Page: 1358
 Project:        City of Mississauga Model 2001
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


MATRICES BY ZONE GROUPS
***********************


Data matrices:          mo33:   am18      2001aa   Validation - Population      (03-06-18   11:37)
                        md28:   am18      2001aa   vaidation - Employment       (03-06-18   11:37)
                        mo19:   am41      2001aa   Total origins                (03-06-18   12:02)
                        md13:   am31      2001aa   Total work destinations      (03-06-18   11:37)
                        md19:   am42      2001aa   Non-work destinations        (03-06-18   12:02)

Constraint matrix:      none

Ensemble:               gq: Performance indicators                              (03-03-11 21:13)
Aggregation:            sum

Submatrix:              all zones


  zone       mo33      md28       mo19      md13        md19
 group       am18      am18       am41      am31        am42

  gq01    168040     435717      65079    293124       43538
  gq02    988826     340842     405542    187713      125750
  gq07    341937     162064     145135     95687       55888
  gq10    384112     200570     162478    123690       72602
  gq13    593263     200351     250120    114605       87962
  gq17    119544      29588      44320     14877       11474
  gq20    160888      52627      76381     28318       25242
  gq22     87413      28441      39853     15908       13188
  gq23    139052      53663      55704     25906       25304
  gq25    100629      24336      39266     13038       10535
  gq27    105951      46990      48548     25367       16395
  gq29    132031      42158      63214     23868       20886
  gq31    208612     121976     105880     77133       39717
  gq33    182022     117920      88967     73243       26240
  gq34     50596      14689      21733      7450        4992
  gq35    325426     119381     151954     66484       51807
  gq36    612925     346796     284082    207994       99721
  gq37     48184      13859      20551      7137        4931
  gq38     31471      16592      14456      9436        4754
  gq39    144738      66104      69984     37294       29411
  gq40    150836      68516      68070     38440       24182
  gq41     77426      20337      30715      8974        7996
  gq42    412849     171769     155088     94082       63052
  gq47   2007868     785166      89548     27203       14132

   sum   7574639     3480452    2496668   1616971     879699
   avg    315610      145019     104028     67374      36654
   min     31471       13859      14456      7137       4754
   max   2007868      785166     405542    293124     125750




GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                             Page 47
EMME/2 Module: 3.14        Date: 03-06-18 12:02       User: E145/DMG.UTYU..pmd           Page: 1359
Project:        City of Mississauga Model 2001
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


MATRICES BY ZONE GROUPS
***********************


Data matrices:         mo11:   am28      2001aa   total GO Rail origins           (03-06-18   11:43)
                       mo12:   am29      2001aa   total transit origins           (03-06-18   11:43)
                       mo10:   am27      2001aa   total auto person origins       (03-06-18   11:41)
                       mo21:   am43      2001aa   Peak hour auto driver origins   (03-06-18   11:42)
                       md11:   am28      2001aa   total GO Rail dest.             (03-06-18   11:43)
                       md12:   am29      2001aa   total transit dest.             (03-06-18   11:43)
                       md10:   am27      2001aa   total auto person dest.         (03-06-18   11:41)
                       md20:   am43      2001aa   Peak hour auto driver dest.     (03-06-18   11:42)

Constraint matrix:     none

Ensemble:              gq: Performance indicators                                 (03-03-11 21:13)
Aggregation:           sum

Submatrix:             all zones


  zone       mo11     mo12       mo10      mo21        md11      md12      md10    md20
 group       am28     am29       am27      am43        am28      am29      am27    am43

  gq01         171    24196     26582     10530       55314    143412    128084    41471
  gq02         633   138228    256365     97057        2069     78685    225386    81628
  gq07        1653    29929    112534     43410         389     22665    127711    48148
  gq10         654    45296    116065     44010         264     37642    157564    59542
  gq13        5102    58440    186809     68545         123     32190    169399    63545
  gq17         835      311     42613     15360           0       154     25611     9650
  gq20        6064     3134     67196     24539         243      2068     50939    20382
  gq22        2628     1225     35921     13330          59       867     27870    11205
  gq23        1484     2787     50836     19098          57      2711     47725    18468
  gq25         614      166     37991     13612           0       122     23013     8866
  gq27        1130     1406     45435     16665           0       847     40289    15321
  gq29        2490     5365     55313     20498          13      2328     42074    15415
  gq31        2939     7919     94715     35168          36      5310    111143    40969
  gq33         848     7028     80800     31311           0      4822     94373    35040
  gq34         319      127     21086      7430           0        73     12217     4326
  gq35        4053     7319    139882     52279          28      4830    112710    41573
  gq36       13538    21569    248245     94996         185     17007    288989   111113
  gq37         853      126     19202      7231           0        31     11642     4478
  gq38         437       51     13775      5351          11         0     13964     5380
  gq39        6713     1188     61668     23778         261      1319     64505    25162
  gq40        3256     1147     63011     23970         145      1214     60740    23568
  gq41         393      152     29636     11282           0       104     16595     6402
  gq42        1569    12628    136369     52211          58     12425    140504    53949
  gq47         879     1141     86973     24665           0        52     35975    10725

   sum       59255   370878    2029022   756326       59255    370878   2029022   756326
   avg        2469    15453      84543    31514        2469     15453     84543    31514
   min         171       51      13775     5351           0         0     11642     4326
   max       13538   138228     256365    97057       55314    143412    288989   111113




GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                               Page 48
EMME/2 Module: 3.14        Date: 03-06-18 12:04       User: E145/DMG.UTYU..pmd           Page: 1383
Project:        City of Mississauga Model 2001
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


MATRICES BY ZONE GROUPS
***********************


Data matrices:         mo20:   am42     2001aa   employment per 1000 population   (03-06-18   12:03)
                       mo23:   am45     2001aa   origin transit m/s (%)           (03-06-18   12:03)
                       md21:   am45     2001aa   destination transit m/s (%)      (03-06-18   12:03)
                       mo22:   am44     2001aa   self containment (% of orig.)    (03-06-18   12:03)
                       mo24:   am46     2001aa   mean auto person time (96LOS)    (03-06-18   12:04)
                       mo25:   am47     2001aa   mean auto person time (equi.)    (03-06-18   12:04)
                       mo27:   am49     2001aa   mean dest. auto occupancy        (03-06-18   12:04)

Constraint matrix:     none

Ensemble:              gq: Performance indicators                                 (03-03-11 21:13)
Aggregation:           maximum

Submatrix:             all zones


  zone       mo20     mo23       md21     mo22        mo24      mo25      mo27
 group       am42     am45       am45     am44        am46      am47      am49

  gq01   2592.00     47.49      43.88    63.82       12.55     11.97      1.16
  gq02    344.00     34.97      25.70    54.72       15.05     14.42      1.22
  gq07    473.00     20.77      15.03    41.93       14.14     14.03      1.22
  gq10    522.00     27.96      19.26    46.26       13.53     13.29      1.24
  gq13    337.00     23.34      15.96    46.90       16.02     16.20      1.26
  gq17    247.00       .71        .60    27.43       28.03     29.07      1.16
  gq20    327.00      4.10       3.88    20.68       23.95     24.70      1.19
  gq22    325.00      3.08       3.01    28.17       21.40     22.55      1.18
  gq23    385.00      5.06       5.37    35.48       17.19     18.30      1.20
  gq25    241.00       .43        .53    26.70       30.00     30.80      1.13
  gq27    443.00      2.93       2.06    29.05       20.96     21.22      1.17
  gq29    319.00      8.49       5.24    24.83       19.32     19.36      1.22
  gq31    584.00      7.50       4.56    20.15       17.97     18.13      1.23
  gq33    647.00      7.93       4.86    18.98       16.65     16.86      1.21
  gq34    290.00       .59        .59    22.67       30.72     32.85      1.12
  gq35    366.00      4.84       4.11    30.70       16.55     17.93      1.23
  gq36    565.00      7.61       5.55    28.62       17.26     16.60      1.22
  gq37    287.00       .62        .27    17.52       23.20     24.92      1.13
  gq38    527.00       .36        .00    20.52       20.51     22.10      1.14
  gq39    456.00      1.71       2.00    22.71       20.23     19.91      1.19
  gq40    454.00      1.70       1.95    26.70       17.96     18.34      1.19
  gq41    262.00       .50        .62    24.53       23.07     23.99      1.14
  gq42    416.00      8.39       8.12    36.31       13.36     13.88      1.21
  gq47    391.00      1.28        .14      .00       60.19     60.00      1.10

   sum   11800.00    222.37    173.30   715.39      509.81    521.41     28.48
   avg     491.67      9.27      7.22    29.81       21.24     21.73      1.19
   min     241.00       .36       .00      .00       12.55     11.97      1.10
   max    2592.00     47.49     43.88    63.82       60.19     60.00      1.26




GTA A.M. Peak Model                                                                               Page 49
Appendix C – Trip Distribution Validation Plots
Comparisons between simulated and 2001 TTS data

       • Auto work trip travel time distributions

       • Auto work trip link scattergram -

       • Auto non-work trip travel time distribution

       • Auto non-work trip link scattergram

       • GO Train work trip travel time distribution

       • Local transit work trip travel time distribution




GTA A.M. Peak Model                                         Page 50
Appendix C – Trip Distribution Validation Plots




GTA A.M. Peak Model                               Page 51
Appendix C – Trip Distribution Validation Plots




GTA A.M. Peak Model                               Page 52
Appendix C – Trip Distribution Validation Plots




GTA A.M. Peak Model                               Page 53
Appendix C – Trip Distribution Validation Plots




                                                            q




GTA A.M. Peak Model                               Page 54
Appendix C – Trip Distribution Validation Plots




GTA A.M. Peak Model                               Page 55
Appendix C – Trip Distribution Validation Plots




GTA A.M. Peak Model                               Page 56

				
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