PA Presidential Statewide Poll Conducted October 16-18, 2008 Sample Size 700 Likely General Election Voters Margin of Error +/-3.7% at 95% Confidence Level Executive Summary, Analysis & Top Line Survey Results
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Methodology
This statewide poll was conducted October 16-18, 2008 with 700 likely general election voters. Only voters with prior vote history in key general elections from 2007, 2006, 2005 and 2004 were contacted, as well as newly-registered voters since 2007. An additional vote screen was used to filter out those whose chances of voting are less than fifty percent in the upcoming general election. Interviews are randomly selected and conducted via telephone using our professionally-trained, live survey research interviewers from our main offices in Harrisburg. The margin of error for a sample size of 700 is +/-3.7% at the 95% confidence level.
Following are the key findings from the poll:
In the current poll, Democratic candidate Barack Obama leads Republican John McCain by a 48/40 margin, with 7% still undecided. Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr has 1% and Independent Party candidate Ralph Nader has 2%. This poll shows only incremental movement from our last publicly released poll conducted August 11-14, when Obama led by a 44/38 margin. Undecided voters in the current poll are leaning slightly towards McCain by a 21/15 margin, which means the race may tighten further before Election Day. However, Obama leads McCain on ntensity, since i 42% say they are “definitely” voting for Obama compared to 35% who are “definitely” for McCain. This suggests Obama has a more solidified base of supporters that will help him from a voter turnout perspective. Among all voters, Obama is viewed favorably by 52%, compared to 34% who have a negative opinion of him. For McCain, 44% have a favorable opinion compared to 41% who view him as unfavorable. In comparison to our August poll, this shows that Obama has increased his favorable image in the state (from a ratio of 46/32 favorable to unfavorable), while McCain’s negatives have increased (from a 44/34 ratio). This is a big problem for McCain because it is unlikely he can win if he doesn’t grow his favorable image and suggests that the Obama campaign has been successful defining him, or that some of McCain’s ads are backfiring. McCain holds leads among very few demographic groups in the survey. He leads among Republicans (77/13) and white working class voters (47/38), while Obama leads among Democrats (76/13), Independents (48/35), swing voters (44/36), African Americans (92/0), white professionals (50/42), females (51/38) and voters in most age groups including senior citizens (46/40), 45-59 year olds (48/40) and 18-29 year olds (63/31). The race is tied within the poll’s 3.7% margin of error among 30-44 year olds (46/43 Obama lead), all Caucasian voters (45/44 McCain lead) and all males (44/42 Obama lead). From a regional standpoint, Obama’s biggest margins are in Southeastern PA (Chester, Delaware, Bucks and Montgomery Counties), where he is winning by a 54/36 margin, and Philadelphia where he leads McCain 74/11. Both these margins are significant because they show that Obama is on track to exceed former presidential candidate John Kerry’s margins in these regions from the 2004 presidential elections. Combined, Philadelphia and these four Southeastern counties represent one in three votes cast in a PA statewide election, which is a huge mathematical advantage for Obama. Obama also leads in Allegheny County by a narrow 48/40 margin, although this shows a drop in comparison to Kerry’s 15 point margin in 2004. John McCain’s strongest areas continues to be the conservative “T”/Central PA region, which is primarily the Johnstown/Altoona media market and includes approximately 13% of the vote. In this region McCain is winning by a 55/33 margin, and also leads Obama in the Southwest region (excluding Allegheny County) by a 43/36 margin. Generally speaking, McCain needs to exceed President Bush’s margins in these two regions from the ’04 election in order to offset Obama’s margins in Southeastern PA. McCain also leads in Northeastern PA by a narrow 52/44 margin, which is an area that Democrats historically do well in. However, the South Central/Harrisburg region shows a near dead heat at 44/40 for Obama, which is a huge problem for the McCain campaign since South Central PA has historically been a GOP bastion for decades (e.g., Bush won
this region by 14 points in 2004). If McCain doesn’t win this region by a significant margin he won’t be able to carry the state. Other key findings of the poll include: Pennsylvanians say that jobs and the economy (at 69%), the war in Iraq (20%) and healthcare (19%) are the three top issues that will most influence how they will vote in the presidential election. National and state polls have consistently shown that voters trust Obama more than McCain on both the economy and healthcare, but are split on who would do a better job in Iraq. Social and cultural issues like gun control, abortion and others (at 10%), terrorism/national security (9%) and taxes (8%) are also mentioned as other top issues that will influence voters, and are all issues that polls show McCain has a clear advantage on. In the race for Attorney General, Republican Tom Corbett leads Democratic candi ate John d Morganelli by a 43/31 margin; 3% say they are voting for Libertarian candidate Marakay Rogers and 20% are undecided. This poll shows incremental progress for Corbett, who led Morganelli by a 39/33 margin in September and 35/28 in August.
604 North Third Street, 1st Floor Harrisburg, PA 17101 Phone: (717) 233-8850 Fax: (717) 233-8842 Cell Phone: (717) 215-1122 Email: james@susquehannapolling.com www.susquehannapolling.com James Lee, President
Final Top Line Survey Results Susquehanna Polling - Fall 2008 Statewide Poll Sample Size: 700 Registered Likely Voters Conducted: October 16-18, 2008
INTRODUCTION: We are conducting a survey of attitudes and opinions concerning some important issues facing Pennsylvania today. May we have a few minutes of your time to complete the survey? F1: Thinking ahead to the general election for president on Tuesday, November 4, on a scale anywhere from 1 to 10, please rank your chances of voting in this election with "1" meaning you are not planning to vote and "10" meaning you will definitely be voting? (IF FIVE OR LOWER, TERMINATE CALL) 1. Six – Nine 2. Ten 22 678 03% 97%
Q1. What one or two issues will most influence how you will vote in the upcoming election for president? (DO NOT READ LIST – TWO ANSWERS ONLY) 1. Economy/jobs 2. Healthcare 3. Terrorism/national security 4. War in Iraq 5. Energy policy/gasoline prices 6. Immigration 7. Social/cultural issues 8. Environment/global warming 9. Social Security/Medicare 10. Taxes 11. Vice presidential candidate 12. Party affiliation 13. Experience/background 14. Foreign policy/international relations 15. Education issues 16. Integrity/trust 17. Other 18. Undecided 19. Refuse 483 133 62 142 17 6 67 10 20 56 5 17 27 18 21 22 45 39 7 69% 19% 09% 20% 02% 01% 10% 01% 03% 08% 01% 02% 04% 03% 03% 03% 06% 06% 01%
(ROTATE Q2-Q3) Q2. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him? 1. 2. 3. 4. Favorable Unfavorable No Opinion Refuse 367 240 89 4 52% 34% 13% 01%
Q3. Is your opinion of John McCain favorable, unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him? 1. 2. 3. 4. Favorable Unfavorable No Opinion Refuse 309 287 100 4 44% 41% 14% 01%
Thinking ahead to the general election on Tuesday November 4… Q4. If the election for President were being held today, would you vote for John McCain, the Republican candidate, Barack Obama, the Democratic candidate, Ralph Nader the Independent , candidate, or Bob Barr, the Libertarian candidate? (ROTATE NAMES – TEST INTENSITY) 1. Definitely McCain 2. Probably McCain 3. Definitely Obama 4. Probably Obama 5. Definitely Nader 6. Probably Nader 7. Definitely Barr 8. Probably Barr 9. Undecided 10. None/other 11. Refuse 243 39 295 41 6 6 1 2 47 4 16 35% 06% 42% 06% 01% 01% 00% 00% 07% 01% 02% Total McCain: 40% Total Obama: 48% Total Nader: 02% Total Barr: 01%
(IF UNDECIDED, ASK Q4b) Q4b. Are you leaning towards voting for any of the candidates? [N=47] 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. McCain Obama Nader Barr Undecided/No None/other 10 7 0 0 29 1 21% 15% 00% 00% 62% 02%
Q5. If the general election for attorney general were being held today, would you vote for Tom Corbett, the Republican, John Morganelli, the Democrat, or Marakay Rogers, the Libertarian candidate? (ROTATE NAMES) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Corbett Morganelli Rogers Undecided None/other Refuse 303 214 21 138 12 11 43% 31% 03% 20% 02% 02%
Now, I have a few more questions for demographic purposes and we’ll be through… Q6. Are you registered to vote as a Republican, Democrat, Independent or something else? 1. 2. 3. 4. Republican Democrat Independent/other Refuse 281 357 50 12 40% 51% 07% 02%
Q7. Which of the following best describes the way in which you voted in the last general election [in which you voted] – straight Republican, mostly Republican, a few more Republicans than Democrats, about equal, a few more Democrats than Republicans, mostly Democrat or straight Democrat? (ONE ANSWER ONLY) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Straight Republican Mostly Republican More Republicans than Democrats About equal More Democrats than Republicans Mostly Democrat Straight Democrat Undecided Refuse 86 154 38 103 47 19% 107 20 15 12% 22% 05% 15% 07% 15% 03% 02%
130
Q8. What is your approximate age according to the following brackets: 18-29, 30-44, 45-59 or 60 and over? 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+ Refuse 39 124 289 244 4 06% 18% 41% 35% 01%
Q9. What is the last grade you completed in school? (DO NOT READ CHOICES) 1. K-8 2. Some high school but did not graduate 3. Graduated high school 1 19 188 00% 03% 27%
4. 5. 6. 7. 9.
Technical or vocational school Some college Graduated college Graduate/professional school Refuse
42 130 218 96 5
06% 19% 31% 14% 01%
Q10. Is your main racial heritage of Caucasian, African-American, Hispanic, Asian American or another background? (CHECK ALL THAT APPLY) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Caucasian African American Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islander Native American Other Refuse 607 58 4 11 5 15 14 87% 08% 01% 02% 01% 02% 02%
THANK YOU FOR YOUR PARTICIPATION IN THE SURVEY. HAVE A GOOD DAY. Gender: 1. Male 2. Female Area:
35 77 88 (05%) (11%) (13%) 1. Northwest [Erie, Crawford, Mercer, Venango, Warren, Forest] 2. Southwest [Lawrence, Beaver, Washington, Greene, Fayette, Westmoreland, Indiana, Armstrong, Butler] 3. The “T”/Central [Jefferson, Elk, McKean, Cameron, Clarion, Clearfield, Centre, Cambria, Somerset, Bedford, Fulton, Franklin, Huntingdon, Blair, Potter, Tioga, Bradford, Susquehanna, Wyoming, Sullivan, Lycoming, Clinton, Union, Snyder, Northumberland, Montour, Columbia, Mifflin, Juniata] 4. Northeast/Lehigh Valley [Luzerne, Carbon, Monroe, Schuylkill, Lackawanna, Lehigh, Northampton, Pike, Wayne] 5. South Central [Perry, Cumberland, Adams, York, Lancaster, Lebanon, Dauphin, Berks] 6. Southeast [Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, Bucks] 7. Allegheny County 8. Philadelphia
336 364
48% 52%
87 112 147 77 77
(12%) (16%) (21%) (11%) (11%)
The margin of error for a sample size of 700 is +/-3.70%