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									        ONE NASA, ONE ESA, TWO PARTNERS




      Achievements and prospective on Cost
            Engineering collaboration




    Presented by H. Joumier
    Head of ESA Cost Engineering
12th April 2005            NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
                                               Europe in Space
     Austria                                                                                      Italy

                        The European Space Agency was established in 1975
    Belgium                                                                                   Netherlands
                   ESA replaced the former Eldo launcher and Esro satellite
                  organisations, grouping the complete range of civilian space
    Denmark                        activities in a single agency                                Norway


                        Portugal joined as 15th member state in 2000
     Finland                                                                                    Portugal
                           Esro                                                    Eldo
                         Satellites                                              Launchers
     France                                                                                      Spain



    Germany                                                                                     Sweden



     Ireland                                                                                  Switzerland


                             Cooperation arrangement: Canada
                                                                                             United Kingdom
12th April 2005                       NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
                                                  ESA Member States
ESA has 16 member states :
• Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy,
Norway, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United
Kingdom.
• Canada takes part in some projects under a cooperation agreement.
•Greece officially a member since March 2005
•Luxemburg to be soon ratified
            D B F         I NL GB DK SP S CH IRL A N FIN P
  2000
  1995       •    •   •    •   •   •   •     •   •    •   •   •   •   •
  1987       •    •   •    •   •   •   •     •   •    •   •   •   •       ESA
  1975       •    •   •    •   •   •   •     •   •    •   •
  1973       •    •   •    •   •   •   •     •   •    •
  1962       •    •   •    •   •   •   •     •   •    •                   ESRO
  1962       •    •   •    •   •   •                                      ELDO




12th April 2005                            NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
                                          Establishments
                                           Permanent ESA staff: 1912
Noordwijk, The Netherlands                                                 Cologne, Germany
ESTEC       (European Space Research                                       EAC     (European
and                                                                        Astronaut
            Technology Centre)                                                     Centre)
Project management, testing of                                             Astronaut training
spacecraft,                                                                Staff: 18
development of new technologies,
space science
                                                                           Darmstadt, Germany
Staff: 1102
                                                                           ESOC       (European Space
                                                                                      Operations
      Paris, France                                                        Centre)
      Head Office                                                          Satellite operations
      Incl. offices in                                                     Staff: 244
      Brussels, Toulouse,
      Kourou, Moscow,                                                  Frascati, Italy
      Washington,                                                      ESRIN
      Houston
      Staff: 387                                                       Earth Observation,
                                                                       Data Processing and
                                                                       Distribution
                                                                       Staff: 153
       Kourou, French Guiana
       CSG                                                                               (Status: Jan 2004)
       Europe’s Spaceport for
   12th April 2005              NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
       Ariane launches                                                                     GEN 15 - Feb 2003
                                                                                             Svalbard

                         ESA World Locations
                                                                                        Kiruna




                                                                       ESTEC
                                                                    Noordwijk         EAC
                                                              Brussels
                                                                                    Cologne
                                                                                          ESOC
                                                           ESA Head Office             Darmstadt
                                                                  Paris
                                                              Toulouse       Redu       ESRIN
                                                                                      Frascati
                                                    Villafranca


              CDN                                           Moscow
      Washington
  Houston
                         Maspalomas

                      Kourou
                                                 Malindi
                                                                                New Norcia
           Santiago                                                                          Perth




                                                                                        GEN 17 - Jan 2001
12th April 2005                NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
                                                  Budget for 2004
                                 Income from member states and participating states
                        Income from member and participating states                 : 2 275.92 M€
                        Other income                                                : 422.40 M€
                        Total:                                                      : 2 698.32 M€

                         L: 0.07%, 1.48 M€
                        G: 0.07%, 1.50 M€                    A: 1.41%, 32.19 M€
                        CZ: 0.01%, 0.25 M€                                  B: 7.12%, 162 M€
                    P: 0.45%, 10.20 M€
           CND: 0.79%, 18.01 M€                                                            DK: 1.08%, 24.48 M€
       UK: 8.20%, 186.60 M€                                                                    FIN: 0.70%, 16 M€
    CH: 3.78%, 85.94 M€
      S: 2.42%, 55 M€
E: 4.89%, 111.21 M€
                                                      Income from
N: 1.31%, 29.88 M€                                   Member States                                  F: 29.71%, 676.28 M€
                                                       2 275.92 M€
 NL: 3.34%, 76 M€

    I: 11.85%, 270 M€

         IRL: 0.40%, 9.17 M€

                                                                                      D: 22.40%, 509.73 M€
      12th April 2005                    NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
                                                   M€: Million of Euro                                BUD 01 - Feb 2004
                                                  Budgets for 2004
                                           Breakdown by programmes
                            Approved programmes                             : 2 566.78 M€
                            Programmes financed by third parties            : 131.54 M€
                            Total                                           : 2 698.32 M€

                                                   General Budget
                  Financed by third parties
                                                   7%, 185.78 M€         Associated to General Budget
                       5%, 131.55 M€
                                                                                5%, 133.13 M€
Technology & Exploration
       2%, 66 M€                                                                         Science
                                                                                       14%, 370 M€



    Launchers
  17%, 458.26 M€                                    Budgets 2004
                                                     2 698.32 M€                            Earth Observation
      Microgravity                                                                           12%, 322.77 M€
      3%, 78.94 M€



Human Spaceflight
 16%, 421.11 M€                                                                    Telecommunications
                                                                                      7%, 194.37 M€
                                                                        Navigation
12th April 2005                       NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
                                              M€: Million of Euro     12%, 336.41 M€             BUD 02 - Feb 2004
                                 ESA Organigramme


                                               Director General
                                             Jean-Jacques Dordain




   Director of      Director of             Director of                      Director of       Director of
    Science       European Union        Earth Observation                  Human Missions      Launchers
                   and Industrial                                          and Exploration
                   Programmes
David Southwood   Giuseppe Viriglio          Volker Liebig                  Daniel Sacotte   Antonio Fabrizi



   Director of             Director of                              Director of                 Director of
   Resources            External Relations                       Technical and               Operations and
  Management                                                   Quality Management             Infrastructure

                                                                    Michel Courtois
 Hans Kappler           Jean-Pol Poncelet                                                    Gaele Winters




12th April 2005                NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
                                                                                                GEN 14 - Apr 2005
            Working as « ONE ESA »
     What does it mean for Cost Engineering?

• Closer interractions and collaboration between functions
       –    Filling in the gap between Contracts and Finance
       –    Filling in the gap between technical disciplines and Project Teams
       –    Filling the gap between Finance and Design
       –    Etc…
       –    Cost Engineering is at the borderline of all these functions
• Team work prevails
       – Cost Engineering is a Team
                  • Common ethics
                  • Common methods
                  • Standardised services
       – Cost Engineering is a solution provider for study and project teams
12th April 2005                        NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
                  The ESA Concurrent Design Facility

• Started in 1998
       –    Visit Joe Hamaker/B. Ruthledge in August 1998
       –    Initiative ESA General Studies Program in September 1998
       –    Cost Engineereing invited as member of the Core Team
       –    Start of Pilot case in November 1998
• Exponential development
       – Puts Cost Engineering on equal chair basis with other design disciplines
       – Success from start
       – Used mainly for early studies and education
       – Backbone of the System engineering competences currently developed into
         the Technical and Quality Management Directorate.
       – Cost engineers hold time to time System engineer or Team Leader positions.

12th April 2005                NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
                  The ESA Concurrent Design Facility




12th April 2005        NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
                                                CDF: activity statistics


                                               Studies performed 1999-2005
     Number of studies performed




                                   20

                                   15

                                   10

                                    5

                                    0
                                        1999      2000         2001           2002             2003   2004
                                                                       year




12th April 2005                                     NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
                   Concurrent Engineering: an iterative process
                                            Mission analysis




The Spiral Model                                                        Mission requirements




                                                                                               Credits: ESA/DLR/FU Berlin (G. Neukum)
                                                                              analysis
       Sub-system design




       Design verification                                              Cost Analysis


                                         Risk assessment




 12th April 2005             NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
                         CDF Achievements
     The CDF has performed more than 50 activities including:

•    Internal pre-phase A, mission feasibility and preliminary design studies
•    Architecture level assessment studies, jointly with Industry
•    Complex payload instrument design (IDA), incl. platform, system, mission




                                                                             Credits: NASA/JPL/University of Colorado, LASP
•    Reviews of Industrial Phase A studies (internal + Industry)
•    ISS on-board facilities/experiments accommodation studies; teaming
     with/supporting Industry in Phase A
•    Preparation of specifications for Phase-B (e.g. ExoMars)
•    Educational, training, promotion and standardisation activities
•    One joint study with NASA/JPL/PDC-Team X, for the scientific STEP project



    12th April 2005        NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
                             ESTEC CDF / JPL Team X STEP joint design sessions

                               USA (CA) - GMT-7                     Europe (NL) - GMT+2
                                  NASA/JPL                              ESA/ESTEC




                                     PDC
                                   Team X                                     CDF                    ASTRIUM
Stanford                TC                              VTC                                TC




                                                                                                          Credits: Brockmann Consult/ESA
                                   (~15 p.)                                 (~15 p.)                   (UK)

                                                  - MS NetMeeting                         Off-line
                                                  - FTP




                                                        TC


PDC: Project Design Center
                                                 Splinter meetings
TC:     TeleConference                        (domain/issue specific)
VTC: Video TeleConference
      12th April 2005                    NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
  ESTEC CDF / JPL Team X STEP joint design sessions




                                                             Credits: SOHO/LASCO/EIT (ESA & NASA)
12th April 2005   NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
                          Collaboration with NASA

• Early Case study for Space Exploration
    – Action commonly decided -Joe Hamaker/H. Joumier- in 2002 i.e.
      two years before the US presidential Space Exploration initiative
    – Study carried out by Charles Hunt (MSFC) and Michel van Pelt (ESA)
    – Objectives
           •   Compare ESA/NASA Costing methodologies
           •   Prepare tools for space exploration missions
           •   Get ready for international collaboration on real cases
           •   Opportunity for cross-cultural enrichment
    – Based on the public domain case for Mars from R. Zubrin

 12th April 2005                     NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
                                Results: Affordability
Are Human Mars Missions Expensive?


                        Cost per year Comparison
     Mars Direct Investment per Yearcomparison - Beer versus Mars
          90
          80
          70
          60
 € or $




          50
          40
          30
          20
          10
           0
               Total cost of beer Total cost of beer       Personal      Total Mission cost Total Mission cost
               per year per Dutch   per year per          Grooming       per American and per American and
                     citizen       French citizen      Products per year European citizen European citizen
                                                         per European     per year, NASA      per year, ESA
                                                             citizen          estimate           estimate


12th April 2005                        NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
                   Human exploration mission studies
Lunar Excursion Vehicle




                                                                     Credits: ESA/DLR/FU Berlin (G. Neukum)
 12th April 2005          NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
                   Human exploration mission studies
Human Mission to Mars




 12th April 2005          NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
                     The precursor models

• The rationale
       – Linking performances, architecture, technologies to size and
         complexities
       – Emulating collaboration between technical and costing functions




                                                                            Credits: ESA / AEOS - Medialab
       – Conciliating proprietary data issues with external collaboration




12th April 2005           NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
                    The precursor models
                                                  Design to Cost oriented Models
                     Precursor
 Performances
                      models                      Model                    Cost




                                                                    DEVT
                                                  QTYNHA                   Sched.
                      Correlates                PROTOS/QTY
                       mission                                             Risk
                          The                    WT/WS/VOL                                Y
                     parameters                                            Cost     Ok?
                       missing                     PLTFM




                                                                                          Credits: ESA/DLR/FU Berlin (G. Neukum)
  Architecture       to standard




                                                                    PROD
                                                  YRTECH
                         link?
                     cost drivers                MCPLXE/S
                                                                           Sched.
                                                 NEWST/EL
                                                                            Risk     N
                     Cost/Techni                 DESRPS/E

  Technologies       cal meeting
                         point

                                                      DTC LOOP



                  correlate mission parameters to
                        Cost/Schedule/Risk
12th April 2005          NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
               The way to collaborate through precursor models


                                                                                                                      Cost

                                              Precursor models




                                                                                                      Org A
                                                                         Model
                                                                                                              Calibra
                                                                         QTYNHA                                       Sched.
Performances
               Architectures




                                                                                                               tion
                               Technologies




                                                                       PROTOS/QTY
                                                                        WT/WS/VOL
                                                                                                                       Risk
                                                                          PLTFM




                                                                                                                               Credits: ESA-D.Ducros
                                                                          YRTECH
                                                                                                                      Cost




                                                                                                      Org B
                                                                       Normalised
                                                                      complexities                            Calibra
                                                                                                                      Sched.
                                                                         DESRPS/E                              tion
                                                                                                                       Risk



                                COLLABORATIVE WORKS                                                         PROPRIETARY




 12th April 2005                                                 NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
                                    Precursor model example for launcher
                                            – "Day One" Preliminary Design for large SRM
                                      COLLABORATIVE WORKS

                                                                                       OUTPUTS         Detailed COST




                                                                                                                      Credits: NASA/JPL/Space Science Institute
                                                     Precursor Model                                      models
                                                                                       N-1 Level
                                                                                      Breakdown         Reactive to
                                INPUTS
                                                                                                          mass
Launchers Precursor model




                             High Level
                            Performances                                                  Casing          Casing
                                                                                           TPS             TPS
                                                                                           Liner           Liner
                               Propellant
                                 Mass                                                     Nozzle          Nozzle
                                                                                           TVC             TVC
                               Av. Vacuum                                                 Igniter         Igniter
                                 Thrust                                                 Upper dome      Upper dome
                                                                                         Recovery        Recovery
                                                      ALGORITHMS                           Misc.           Misc.
                                                                                      Total dry Mass
                                                                                        Total SRM
                                                                                           Mass



             12th April 2005                      NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
How to perform a « Day
One » cost estimate for
providing early real                                    Mission

time answers in CDF?                                 Requirements
                                                          Payload
                                                         Definition         Platforms     Instruments         Launchers
                                                           Orbit            S/S CERs         CERs             Database
ESA Cost Engineering has developed




                                                                                                                             Credits: ESA/DLR/FU Berlin (G. Neukum)
                                                         Definition
RACE (Rapid Avanced Cost Estimates)




                                                                                                               Complexitie
                                                                           Platform and




                                                                                                   Hardware




                                                                                                                profiling
                                                                                                   Matrices
                     Satellite         Platform Dry
                                                                        Payload Module S/S
                                       Mass estimate




                                                                                                                   s
                    references
                                                                            Payload AIT


An integrated suite of CERs                                              Instruments               Launcher
than derives sub-system level
cost estimates from mission                                           Industrial set-up     Schedule constraints

requirements and payload                                                           Risk Analysis
definition

                                                   RACE Cost Estimate

  12th April 2005                NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
• Various precursor models already developed
       – TIW-D for digital equipment
       – TIW-O for Optical Instruments
       – SOCRATES (full life cycle RLV system simulator coupled with cost
         models)
• Others under progress
       –    TIW-R for RF Equipment
       –    TIW-A for antennas
       –    Heavy launcher full life cycle system/cost simulator
       –    Lunar and Martian bases full life cycle system/cost simulator
12th April 2005              NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
                        Precursor Design Model
 Set number               Thrust to
 and type of                                          Total take-off
                        Weight ratio at
   engines                                                mass
                        Lift-off > 1.2
                                                                          Mass fraction as
                                                                          function of take-
         Tank sizes &                                                         off mass
                                      Propellant mass
           masses

                              Dry mass

                                                                                  Max landing
Thrust        Under-       Fuselage       TPS size         Wing size                speed
frame        carriage       mass          & mass           & mass
 mass         size &                      • Nose
               mass
                                          • windward      Airfoil sizes
                                          • leeward
Development &                                                    Number & mass of
Production Cost                                                  airfoil mechanisms
 12th April 2005            NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
        Model
                               Precursor Design Model
  Operations cost estimates can be based on some results from the
  preliminary design tool and some additional parameters to be set:


                                                                             Amount of         Vehicle
Type of engines                 Engine               • Fleet size            propellant        size &
  => type of                refurbishment                                    needed per         mass
  propellants                                        • Flight rate
                                effort                                         flight


                                         Operations Cost                       • Runway size
   Propellant storage
                                             Model                             • Facilities volumes
      & loading
      operations                                                               • Refurbishment effort

            other costs, mostly independent of vehicle concept
           • Mission Control                        • Flight planning
           • Tracking stations operations           • Insurance
 12th April 2005                  NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
                          Preliminary Cost Estimates
      Once everything has been set-up, the combined Design Tool and Cost
      Model work something like this:

                                                                                  Max landing
         Type and
         number of                          Precursor Model                         speed
          engines
                                                                                      Other
                       Performance
                     • max Mach                                  Design output
   Rerun if          • max heat load                              parameters
 performance
                     • max payload
does not match                                                                   • Fleet size
   required          • etc.                      Life Cycle Cost
                                                                                 • Flight rate
 performance                                          Model
                                              • Development costs
         Required
        performance                           • Recurrent costs
                                              • Operations costs
   12th April 2005                NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
                           TIW-D: Application example :

              OTS 1            OTS 2



                                                 OTS N




                                                                        ?
              OTS 3            OTS i

                                                                                  WHAT IS THE BEST
                                                                                    SOLUTION ?


                      LEGEND

                           OTS USED
                                                                              NEW A       NEW B
                           OTS UNUSED

                           NEW DEVT




12th April 2005                        NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
                         TIW-O Estimating Optical Instruments

                  Payload /              System Level                             PRECURSOR MODELS
                Instrument(s)             Activities
                                                                      Optical assembly(ies)
                                         System
                                        Hardware
                                                                      Focal Plane Assembly(ies)
Product Tree




                                                                      Cooling Subsystem


                                                                      Structure


                                                                      Calibration subsystem


                                                                      Mechanism(s)


                                                                      Instrument Control
                                                                      Electronics

                                         System
                                        Software




    12th April 2005             NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
                                         Early Stage mode

                                                                 Design-to-cost



Mission requirements
                                                                                                                        No

               +                               Detailed layout                       Cost drivers
                                                                                                                 Cost
                                                                                                                             ?
Standard configurations
                                                                                                                                 Yes


                          Precursor models 1                        Precursor models 2              Cost model




 12th April 2005                     NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
                          Example : Telescope Optical Assembly
                               and Structure Subsystem


                                                   • Number and type
                                                   of optical elements
        Type of             Standard
                          Configuration
                                                   (mirrors/lenses)         Optical
       Telescope
                                                   •Class of mirrors       Assembly
         Aperture                                                           Detailed
                                                                            Layout
              F#               PM                   Mirrors Size


                                                                           Structure
          +        Structure                         Baseplate Size       Subsystem
                   Material         PM                                     Detailed
                                                                            Layout


12th April 2005                NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
        Space Exploration Life Cycle Cost modelling
                                    Mission
                                   Objectives


    Infrastructure Matrices (Element Type vs instances)



      Element 1D     Element 2D        Element iD       Element nD




                                                                      Scenario A
       Element 11    Element 21        Element i1       Element n1




                                                                                   Scenario B
       Element 1j     Element 2j        Element ij       Element nj

      Element 1m     Element 2m        Element im       Element nm




 Elements are detailed down the Product Tree at appropriate level
12th April 2005           NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
      Space Exploration Life Cycle Cost modelling
                                    Mission
                                   Objectives


 Transp.,Ops and Maintenance Matrices (Vehicles vs traject. X Nb trips)



          Leg 1D      Leg 2D                  Leg iD               Leg nD




                                                                            Scenario A
           Leg 11     Leg 21                  Leg i1               Leg n1




                                                                                         Scenario B
           Leg 1j      Leg 2j                  Leg ij              Leg nj

          Leg 1m      Leg 2m                  Leg im               Leg nm



12th April 2005         NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
                        Space Exploration Life Cycle Cost modelling

                         System of
Top-Down LCC estimate




                          Systems




                                                                                                  CDF STUDIES
                          System A       System B




                            Sub-           Sub-                 Sub-
                         Systems i1     Systems i2           Systems in



                          Products       Products             Products                 Products
                             j1             j2                   j3                       jm



                    CDF studies performed in the frame of the Aurora programme allow to
                    progressively calibrate the global Life Cycle cost estimate model

              12th April 2005               NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
             Space Exploration Life Cycle Cost modelling
                                             Mission
                                            Objectives


             Infrastructure                 Infrastructure                            Infrastructure
                     Matrix                    Matrix                                    Matrix
               Transport                      Transport                                 Transport
Scenario A




                               Scenario B




                                                                         Scenario C
              Operations                     Operations                                Operations
             Maintenance                    Maintenance                               Maintenance
                     Matrix                    Matrix                                    Matrix
             Cost/Benefits                  Cost/Benefits                             Cost/Benefits
                 Analysis                     Analysis                                  Analysis


                                             Selection

   12th April 2005            NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
            Evolution towards an operational service

• Maturing processes
       –    The ESA Cost Engineering RoadMap
       –    Code of Cost Engineering Best Practices
       –    Classes of estimates / Charter of services




                                                                        Credits: ESA/DLR/FU Berlin (G. Neukum)
       –    Accountability




12th April 2005              NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
                                 Cost Engineering RoadMap

                                    ESA Cost Engineering Objectives scoring
                                             based on CE ADMIN




                                                                                                                                 Credits: ESA/DLR/FU Berlin (G. Neukum)
                                                           50




                                                                                              20




                                                                                                                   25
                            Accountability                                                                                   5




                                                  25




                                                                              35




                                                                                                              35
                               Cost Risk                                                                                     5




                                                                60 60




                                                                                                   10 10

                                                                                                           10 10
                     Covering all dom ains                                                                              20

                                 ISO 9000                                                                               20
                                             30 30 10




                                                                             20



                                                                                          15
                   Deepness of coverage                                                                            35


                                                                        10

                                                                                  10
                           Federative role                                                                 50
                                                   10 10



                                                           10

                      Virtual Com petition                                                         70

                                                                                         90
                                                       0
                                                       0




                  Technologies evaluation


                                                                    Fixed              Extended            Additional


12th April 2005                        NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
Current skills per product



                                  Satellites
                                RF payload




                                                                                                            Credits: NASA/JPL/Space Science Institute
                                 Launchers
                                    Optical
                             Other Payload
                              Full Systems
                             internal costs
                                    Ground
                                   Software                                   ESA Cost Engineering skills
                                 EEE parts                                                per product
                              Ops & Maint.
                             User segment

                                               0          1              2              3         4     5




12th April 2005                                    NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
• Accountability
                                                                          E_MIS
                                                                                           Project x over time
                                                          MOD_O                    I_MIS
•    E_MIS = ESA missed cost item                                        10%


•    I_MIS = Industry missed cost                                        5%

     item                                             MOD_U              0%                TRL

•    TRL = Heritage/TRL difference
•    DDV = HW Matrix/development                                                                     01/06/2002

     plan difference                                          RISK                 DDV               02/09/2002
                                                                                                     03/03/2003

•    PROC = Procurement                                                    PROC
                                                                                                     04/09/2003


     approach/Industrial team build                                        E_MIS
     up difference                                                       20%                Domain over time

•    RISK = Cost Risk                                     MOD_O          15%       I_MIS


     Analysis/Management reserve                                         10%


     difference                                                          5%

                                                      MOD_U              0%                TRL
•    MOD_U = ESA model under-
     estimate
                                                                                                          2002
•    MOD_O = ESA model over-                                  RISK                 DDV                    2003

     estimate                                                                                             2004
                                                                                                          2005
                                                                           PROC

12th April 2005               NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
                     Cost Engineering Charter of Services

  • Framework agreement with Users
          – What type of Cost Engineering services?
          – For what quality (accuracy) and delivery date?




                                                                          Credits: EIT Consortium (ESA/NASA)
          – For what ‘Price” i.e. effort to prepare?
  • Similar to NASA CRL
                        1
  • Based on the AACE International recommended
    Practice No 17R-97
  • Adapted and completed for ESA environment
  • Valid for Cost Estimating
  • Extended for Proposal assessment and reviews
        1-Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering
12th April 2005                NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
         • Metrics for Cost Estimating:
                  – Accuracy = f(Complexity and Time to Prepare)
                  – Design Maturity Margin = f(Complexity and class of Estimate)
                  – Effort= f(Complexity and magnitude)
                      • Correcting factors to account for the Input data quality
                            – Accessibility of data
                            – Stucture of data
                            – Availibility of specialists for interview
                      • Percentage of effort for estimates updating
         • Metrics for Proposals evaluation
                  – As a function of Complexity and Phase
                      • Corrective factor for the number of proposals per ITT to estimate
         • Metrics for Reviews
                  – As a function of Complexity and Phase

12th April 2005                      NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
                    Class of Estimates Definition

                     Level of
         Class of                                                                             Expected    Preparation
                     Project          End Usage                   Methodology                 Accuracy
         estimate                                                                                            effort
                    Definition
                                                           Parametric and Analogy at
                                     Screening or          preliminary     system      and
                                                                                                                1
          Class 5    0% to 2%         Feasibility          assumed sub-systems levels;         4 to 20
                                                                                                           per system
                                  Program preparation      Several system level solutions

                                                           Parametric and Analogy on a
                                    Concept Study or       preliminary sub-systems and                        2 to 4
          Class 4    1% to 15%     Feasibility inside or   equipment level. Trade-offs at      3 to 12     per system
                                   outside of the CDF      sub-systems level                               architecture

                                                           Parametric and Analogy on a
                                                                                                              3 to 10
                                                           refined   sub-systems   and
                                  Phase C/D Programme                                                     assuming system
          Class 3   10% to 40%
                                       Declaration
                                                           equipment level                     2 to 6
                                                                                                         architecture trade-
                                                                                                             offs closed

                                                           Parametric and Analogy on a
                                                           frozen     equipment   level.
          Class 2   30% to 70%        System PDR
                                                           Integration    of  negotiated
                                                                                               1 to 3         5 to 20
                                                           prices.
                                                           Integration of negotiated prices
                                                           Analogy and Bottom up
          Class 1   50% to 100%       System CDR
                                                           analytical estimate for the
                                                                                                 1          10 to 100
                                                           remaining part

12th April 2005                    NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
                                    Few Metrics Table examples

                                                                    Degree of Complexity




                                                                                                            Credits: NASA/JPL/Space Science Institute
     Class 4 expected Preparation
         effort in man-hours               Business           Moderate             Major        Extreme
                                           as usual          Complexity          Complexity    Complexity

                  Equipment/Instrum
                                              2 to 4            3 to 16            16 to 40       > 40
                        ent
     M
      a             Space Segment            4 to 20           15 to 40           40 to 120       > 120
      g
     ni           Ground segment &
     tu                                     16 to 40           20 to 80           60 to 180       > 180
                        Ops
     d
      e             Services/User
                                            10 to 40           20 to 120          40 to 240       > 240
                      segment

                    Whole System            30 to 100          50 to 200          120 to 500      > 500

12th April 2005                       NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans
                      Final words




12th April 2005   NASA Cost Analysis Symposium New Orleans

								
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