1 - Basingstoke and Deane Borough Council by jizhen1947

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									                                                                                          Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001



CONTENTS
1     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................3
    1.1    INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................................3
    1.2    SURVEY RESPONSE .......................................................................................................................................4
    1.3    BASINGSTOKE & DEANE HOUSING MARKET ................................................................................................4
    1.4    CURRENT HOUSING IN BASINGSTOKE & DEANE ...........................................................................................5
    1.5    FUTURE HOUSING REQUIREMENTS ...............................................................................................................5
    1.6    SINGLE PEOPLE .............................................................................................................................................6
    1.7    SPECIAL HOUSING NEEDS .............................................................................................................................7
    1.8    POPULATION GROWTH AND HOUSEHOLD FORMATION ................................................................................8
    1.9    CONCLUSIONS ..............................................................................................................................................8
    1.10     RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................................................................................10
2     INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................12
    2.1    PURPOSE, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES ..............................................................................................................12
    2.2    DEFINITIONS ...............................................................................................................................................12
    2.3    METHODOLOGY ..........................................................................................................................................13
    2.4    SAMPLING...................................................................................................................................................14
    2.5    PROMOTION ................................................................................................................................................15
    2.6    RESPONSE RATE .........................................................................................................................................15
    2.7    REPORT STRUCTURE ...................................................................................................................................16
3     THE BASINGSTOKE & DEANE BOROUGH HOUSING MARKET ..................................................17
    3.1    INTRODUCTION ...........................................................................................................................................17
    3.2    NATIONAL PICTURE ....................................................................................................................................17
    3.3    REGIONAL PICTURE ....................................................................................................................................17
    3.4    THE HOUSING MARKET ..............................................................................................................................18
    3.5    CAN „CONCEALED‟ HOUSEHOLDS AFFORD TO BE IN THE MARKET? ...........................................................19
    3.6    CONCEALED HOUSEHOLDS‟ ACCESS TO THE MARKET ...............................................................................19
    3.7    THE PRIVATE RENTED SECTOR ...................................................................................................................21
    3.8    CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................................................................22
4     CURRENT HOUSING IN THE BOROUGH ............................................................................................23
    4.1    TENURE, TYPE AND AMENITIES ..................................................................................................................23
    4.2    ADEQUACY OF PRESENT DWELLING / IMPROVEMENT REQUIRED ...............................................................27
    4.3    HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION AND HOUSEHOLD PROFILE ..............................................................................31
    4.4    COSTS OF PRESENT HOUSING AND INCOME ................................................................................................37
    4.5    CAR AVAILABILITY ....................................................................................................................................40
    4.6    RECENT MOVEMENT OF EXISTING HOUSEHOLDS .......................................................................................41
5     FUTURE HOUSING REQUIREMENTS ..................................................................................................42
    5.1    MOVING HOUSEHOLDS ...............................................................................................................................42
    5.2    HOUSING NEEDS OF EXISTING HOUSEHOLDS MOVING WITHIN THE BOROUGH ..........................................45
    5.3    HOUSING NEEDS OF NEW / CONCEALED HOUSEHOLDS MOVING WITHIN THE BOROUGH...................................49
6     SPECIAL HOUSING NEEDS .....................................................................................................................57
    6.1    NEEDS OF DISABLED PEOPLE ......................................................................................................................57
    6.2    SUPPORTED ACCOMMODATION AND HOUSING FOR OLDER PEOPLE ...........................................................61
7     POPULATION GROWTH AND HOUSEHOLD FORMATION PROJECTIONS ..............................63
    7.1    INTRODUCTION ...........................................................................................................................................63
    7.2    DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS ..........................................................................................................................64
    7.3    POPULATION PROJECTIONS .........................................................................................................................65
    7.4    AGE STRUCTURE FORECAST 1996 - 2011 ...................................................................................................65
    7.5    FORECAST CHANGE IN HOUSEHOLDS 1996-2011 .......................................................................................66
    7.6    SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................................................67




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8     NEEDS ASSESSMENT MODEL, PLANNING & DELIVERY ..............................................................68
    8.1    AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEEDS REQUIREMENT...........................................................................................68
    8.2    CONCEALED HOUSEHOLDS AND HOUSING NEED ........................................................................................70
    8.3    CONCEALED HOUSEHOLDS‟ ACCESS TO THE MARKET ...............................................................................70
    8.4    LAND AND AFFORDABLE HOUSING DELIVERY ...........................................................................................72
    8.5    PLANNING POLICIES FOR AFFORDABLE HOUSING.......................................................................................72
    8.6    AFFORDABLE HOUSING ..............................................................................................................................73
    8.7    LOW COST MARKET HOUSING....................................................................................................................74
    8.8    SPECIAL NEEDS HOUSING ...........................................................................................................................74
    8.9    AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEEDS REQUIREMENT 2000 - 2006 .......................................................................75
    8.10    OVERALL TARGET LEVELS ......................................................................................................................75
    8.11    NEEDS DISTRIBUTION BY SUB-AREA .......................................................................................................76
    8.12    LOCATION DEMAND ANALYSIS................................................................................................................76




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                                                   Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001




1       EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1     Introduction
1.1.1   Government guidance on housing and planning has emphasised the requirement for
        local authorities to assess housing need, create complementary strategies to address it
        and to co-ordinate effort in a corporate approach to their strategic and enabling role.
        In January 2001 Basingstoke & Deane Borough Council commissioned DCA to carry
        out a detailed Borough-wide assessment and projection of housing need as the basic
        building block in informing housing, planning and care strategies for the future.

1.1.2   The assessment process has been conducted to ensure that it is rigorous and able to
        withstand scrutiny, as outlined in Circular 6/98 and in the Revision of Planning Policy
        Guidance Note 3 issued in March 2000. It also complies with the Good Practice
        guidance from DETR on local housing needs assessment.

1.1.3   The key aims of the study were:-

           to determine the levels of housing supply and demand in the Borough;

           to support the annual HIP bid;

           to provide robust information at a ward level in accordance with PPG3, to guide
            the location of new provision and development of the Housing Strategy;

           to support Local Plan Policies.

1.1.4   The objectives were:-

           to determine the levels of housing demand and supply in the Borough and
            furthermore determine the extent of the annual supply required to meet the
            demand throughout the planning period of 2001 - 2006;

           to ensure that the information on which resource allocation and planning
            decisions are taken is sound with respect to current and future housing need and
            the need for affordable housing in the Borough and its regional context;

           to assist the Council in its preparation and development of local housing strategies
            and other related strategies, in particular key workers;

           to provide data to support Local Plan housing policies.

1.1.5   This Executive Summary brings together the inter-related housing and planning issues
        identified in the separate elements of the research to assess their impact and
        implications for future housing and planning strategy. The key findings are
        summarised along with conclusions and recommendations for action.




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                                                        Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001



1.2     Survey Response
1.2.1   7,700 questionnaires were sent to respondents in the week commencing 22nd January
        2001.
1.2.2   Response to the survey was good. In total 2,709 questionnaires were returned: 4.5%
        of all resident households in Basingstoke & Deane took part in the survey.
1.2.3   The overall response level for Basingstoke & Deane Borough was 35.2%. The Borough
        was divided into five sub-areas for analysis as detailed in the table below showing the
        response levels in each area. The highest response level was achieved in the North East
        returning 39.5%, the lowest rate was from the South East returning 33.2%.
        Table 1-1         Response Rate by Area

        Sub-area             Households      Sample           Response     Percentage Validity +
        Basingstoke            38,870         3,500             1,200           34.3          2.31
        North West              4,650         1,000               336           33.6          4.36
        South West              4,410         1,000               358           35.8          4.23
        North East             10,600         1,350               533           39.5          3.47
        South East              2,060             850             282           33.2          4.76
        Total                  60,590         7,700             2,709           35.2          1.54


1.3     Basingstoke & Deane Housing Market
1.3.1   The annual rate of house price inflation in the South East region in the year to 31st
        March 2000 was 8.6%, higher than the UK average of 5.7%.
1.3.2   The average price for all dwellings in Basingstoke & Deane during the year was
        around £142,000 which is 95% of Hampshire‟s standardised average house price of
        £148,000. The average conceals some diversity of price differentials between the
        various categories of dwellings.
1.3.3   The cheapest dwellings in Basingstoke & Deane Borough are flats (11% of sales)
        selling at average price of £74,853. There is a high supply of terraces (37.2% of sales)
        costing around £104,485. The data suggests that first-time buyers need household
        incomes of £35,000 p.a. to access the market through terraces and £25,000 to purchase
        flats.
1.3.4   There is an affordability problem in Basingstoke & Deane Borough for low-income
        households. The housing market excludes many families and single person households
        who are currently seeking access to local housing. Over three quarters of this new /
        concealed demand requiring affordable housing is in addition to Housing Register
        numbers.
1.3.5   Access to home ownership is beyond the reach of almost 77% of the new / concealed
        households identified in the survey. Additionally, the private rented sector makes little
        contribution to access to affordable housing and this almost certainly underlies the
        problem of concealment that exists in Basingstoke & Deane.


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                                                    Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001



1.4     Current Housing in Basingstoke & Deane
1.4.1   49% of households in Basingstoke & Deane are owner-occupiers with a mortgage,
        27% own their homes outright - a total of 77% in owner occupation. Only 17% are
        renting from a housing association and 4% are in privately rented homes.
1.4.2   11% of households are in flats, maisonettes or bedsits, 32% are in terraces or terraced
        bungalows and 56% are in semi-detached or detached houses or bungalows (semi /
        detached).
1.4.3   89% of households say that their accommodation is adequate for their needs. 11%
        (6,700 implied) say that it is inadequate. The largest single issue for those reporting a
        problem was that the dwelling was too small (50%, 3,880 implied). 32% said that
        their dwelling needed improvement or repairs. 11% referred to unsuitability for older
        or disabled people.
1.4.4   Single adult households make up 25% of all households in Basingstoke & Deane, 6%
        below the UK average. Couples constitute 70% of Basingstoke & Deane households
        compared to 60% for the UK as a whole. The incidence of single parent households
        (5.7%) was slightly lower than the UK average.
1.4.5   Under-occupation affects approximately 20% of all households in Basingstoke &
        Deane and over-occupation affects only 4%.
1.4.6   30% of households renting pay less than £60 per week and 50% less than £70. Of
        owner-occupiers, 36% paid no mortgage (outright owners) with a further 25% paying
        less than £400 per month. Some 19% of owner-occupier households paid in excess of
        £600 per month.
1.4.7   15% of households have incomes below £10,000, which is far less than for UK as a
        whole (33%). 39% of households have incomes below the national average household
        income of £22-23,000. 47% of households in Basingstoke & Deane have incomes
        above £30,000, with 31% above £35,000.
1.4.8   22% of households were in receipt of financial support (13,600 implied), of whom
        49% (6,682 implied) were in receipt of Housing Benefit.

1.5     Future Housing Requirements
1.5.1   21.3% of all households (12,840 implied) are currently seeking to move or will do so
        in the next five years. A further 6.8% (4,070 implied) wish to move, but are unable to
        do so. This implies an average of around 7.1% per annum, which is higher than other
        DCA surveys. This proportion would rise to 9.4% if all those wishing to move in the
        period were able to do so.
1.5.2   69% (4,222 implied) of those indicating a wish to move, but an inability so to do
        referred to affordability as a reason for not being able to move; 21% to the lack of
        suitable property.
1.5.3   4,900 existing households and 3,840 new households will be moving within the Borough.
1.5.4   Key Findings of Existing households wishing to move:-
           41% intend to do so within one year;
           54% would prefer a detached house or a bungalow, 30% would prefer a semi-
            detached house;

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           Some 22% (1,070 implied) would be interested in supported accommodation;
           66% would prefer two or three bedrooms;
           69% would prefer owner occupation including shared ownership, 30% indicated a
            preference for Housing Association rented accommodation.

1.5.5   Key Findings of New or concealed households wishing to move:-
           47% (2,150) are singles, 53% (2,400) are couples;
           93% of concealment relates to children of the existing household, although 41%
            are 25 years old or above;
           45% require flats, 22% require terraced houses, 27% semi-detached houses, and
            detached houses / bungalows less than 5%;
           22% of new / concealed households are registered on a Housing Register;
           55% could afford a weekly rent of no more than £60; 74% no more than £70;
           77% could not afford a mortgage of more than £400 per month;
           23% have household incomes below £10,000 per annum;
           23% have household incomes at or above the UK average of £22-23,000 (the
            same as the average in DCA surveys).

1.6     Single People
1.6.1   Basingstoke and Deane Borough Council formally commissioned DCA in May 2000
        to carry out a Borough-wide Single Persons Housing Survey.
1.6.2   At the time there was over 1,100 people single person households on the common
        Housing Needs Register, which represented nearly half of all those in affordable
        housing need. Over half of the single person households in identifiable need were over
        30 years of age. The following are key issues that were identified in the 2000 study:-
           The housing needs of single people are very varied; future demand appears
            principally to be focused on smaller, flatted accommodation in Basingstoke town,
            primarily in the social rented sector. Over 60% of respondents prefer a flat, 4.7%
            a bedsit and 3.4% a maisonette. Terrace housing is the choice of over 14% and
            the combined preference for detached, semi-detached and bungalow
            accommodation is 11.7%;
           Low income is a key factor restricting the housing choices of single people.
            Those on low incomes are more likely to be in social rented accommodation.
            Although 63% of the sample were in employment, single people on low incomes
            are prepared to consider sharing with friends as a way to access the housing
            market;
           68% of respondents earned less that £12,500, 22.6% between £12,500 and
            £20,000 and 8.6% in excess of £20,000;
           56% want a property rented from a housing association, 19% prefer private rent
            and 19% wanted to buy. These preferences recognise of the costs of buying in the
            Borough but also reflect the impact of changing employment patterns and
            lifestyle changes in tenure choices;


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           82.4% of movers responding to the question said they would be willing to live
            within walking distance of a town centre and Basingstoke was the main. Town
            centres were valued for the proximity to leisure and shopping facilities and access
            to work;
           Local employers are struggling to fill posts in key sectors such as catering, hotels,
            retail, health and education. This is of major concern particularly in the light of
            the town centre development. If employees are priced out of the local labour
            market by the cost of housing the local economy will suffer. Basingstoke and
            Deane currently has a very buoyant local economy with very low levels of
            unemployment. However, if income levels and adequate stock supply are
            inadequate the current skill shortages will proliferate.

1.7     Special Housing Needs
1.7.1   17% of households in Basingstoke & Deane contain somebody with a disability,
        suggesting some 10,160 households.
1.7.2   In around 83% of cases only one household member was affected; in 17% two
        members were affected. 58% of all disabled people were over the age of 60; 22%
        under 45.
1.7.3   The largest group affected by a named disability was those with a walking difficulty
        of some kind, affecting 8% of all households in the Borough. 10% of this group of
        households contained someone who was a wheelchair user, suggesting around 1,000
        in Basingstoke & Deane as a whole. Of the 2nd members with a disability, 90 or so
        were also wheelchair users.
1.7.4   In 19% of cases someone using a wheelchair inhabited the homes that had been
        adapted for a wheelchair. This suggests some mismatch between houses adapted and
        those where wheelchair users live: it would appear that some 783 wheelchair user
        households do not live in suitably adapted premises.
1.7.5   27% of Housing Association rented homes were adapted for a disabled person and
        10% in the owner occupied (no mortgage) sector were adapted.
1.7.6   In terms of the nature of adaptations 19% have wheelchair adaptations; 50% have
        handrails / grabrails and 43% have bathroom adaptations.
1.7.7   Only 33% of respondents were aware of Local Authority grants for aids, adaptations
        and home improvements:-
           There will be future provision requirements to address the changing needs from
            Care in the Community policies, but at this stage we believe that these are likely
            to be specific small developments and the Local Plan Policy H13 adequately
            addresses the requirement for special needs and accessible housing;
           It is however, important to recognise that 4,800 households have someone with a
            walking difficulty and 81% of wheelchair users do not live in an adapted
            dwelling. These matters are now principally dealt with by Part M of the Building
            Regulations.




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1.8     Population Growth And Household Formation
1.8.1   The population is forecast to increase by 13,257 people, 8.7% over the period to 2011.
1.8.2   However, this population increase will not occur uniformly throughout all age ranges.
        The net increase is concentrated entirely within the population aged 45 and over,
        which is expected to increase by more than 25% over the fifteen years 1996-2011. The
        profile of the local population is thus changing significantly.
1.8.3   The 20-29 age group is forecast to grow by only about 800 people between 1996 and
        2011. This age range covers the main household forming group and will have
        implications for future affordable and market housing need both in the short and
        longer term.
1.8.4   The 30-44 age group declines by 1,300 people over the period 1996-2011. This age
        range covers the main house-moving and economically active group.
1.8.5   Both the 45-retirement age group and the “younger” retired group (those under 80) are
        projected to increase by more than 25% between 1996 and 2011.
1.8.6   The "older" retirement group, those aged 80 and over grows by more than 29% from
        1996, by over 1,300 elderly people to approximately 5,800 people by 2011. This
        group is much more likely to have care and support needs which should now be
        assessed in detail.

1.9     Conclusions
1.9.1   The total affordable housing need annually is for 1,774 units. Re-lets of the existing
        social stock average 700 units and is the major means of addressing the scale of need
        identified. Even with a new delivery programme of 210 units there will still be an
        annual household need of 860 units which allows for elimination of the Housing
        Register of 4,034 at the rate of 807 units a year over a five year period to 2006. These
        figures however ignore 948 households planning to leave the area because of a lack of
        affordable housing by 2005.

1.9.2   It is not expected to be able to achieve this scale of supply in this timescale. However,
        even if no reduction in the current Housing Register was to be achieved, there would
        still be an annual requirement of 263 affordable units additional to existing stock
        supply from relets.
1.9.3   The survey provides valuable data on the needs and preferences of concealed
        households who intend to form and wish to remain in the Borough. The following key
        factors relating to their needs deserve to be highlighted:-
           1,406 concealed households are projected to form new households per year;
           45% require flats or bedsits, reflecting the predominance of single people or
            childless couples;
           86% prefer small units with one and two bedrooms;
           45% prefer owner-occupation;
           37% want affordable rented accommodation and a significant interest from 12%
            in private rent. 6% are looking for shared ownership.



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1.9.4   93% of concealed households are young people wishing to set up their own household
        who are the children of Basingstoke & Deane residents. However, not all concealed
        households represent a household in need of subsidised affordable housing.

1.9.5   23% of households had incomes below the national average of £22-23,000. The
        Halifax House Price Survey revealed that any household with an income below
        £35,000 per annum would struggle financially to access the local housing market
        depending on location. An average of 91% of new households forming are in this
        position.

1.9.6   Table 1-2 reflects the differing levels of existing supply against demand from new
        households and the impact in actual sales levels created by stock availability and
        turnover. Flats are mainly found in the Council, RSL and private rented sectors,
        reflected in the very low proportion of all sales (10.9%).

1.9.7   Preference for flats is significantly higher than the stock level of 11%. New forming
        households at 45% of demand for flats, reflect the impact of changing formation and
        household preferences. New forming households show much lower levels of interest
        in terraced housing, but access the market through it because of limited flat supply and
        the cost of alternatives.

        Table 1-2        Dwelling Type Demand / Stock Supply / Sales

         House Type                     Demand                 Stock           Sales
                                                               (1991
                                             New              Census)
                              Existing                                      All buyers
                                           household
                                %                                               %
                                              %                   %

         Terraces                7.3             22.2            32.0          37.2

         Flats                   7.5             45.3            10.7          10.9

         Semi-detached           30.0            27.1            23.5          20.7

1.9.8   All site briefs and regeneration projects should promote housing types which are
        under represented in the stock, in line with the principles in the PPG3 issued in March
        2000.

1.9.9   There is a need for low-cost market housing and planning policies and site
        development briefs should continue to encourage more, smaller dwellings to meet
        current needs and address the shortage of flats in the existing stock.




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1.10     Recommendations
1.10.1   Housing Strategy

            In its enabling role seeks to support the delivery agencies working in the area,
             either through input of land or grant resources or in the prioritisation of bids for
             the next five years to the Housing Corporation to provide mainly 1-bed and 2-bed
             flats and terraced houses to meet the needs of single adults and couples both with
             and without children and address the shortages in the stock;

            Develop a comprehensive older persons delivery strategy to address the current
             and future growth in elderly and frail elderly households across all tenures, and
             their related care and support needs to:-
             -   assess and prioritise the need for support services and adaptation required to
                 keep people in their own home for as long as is practical;
             -   re-assess existing sheltered stock in meeting today‟s housing standards and
                 preferences;
             -   develop an adequate scale of „extra care‟ accommodation for the frail elderly
                 population.

1.10.2   Disabled Households

            Continues to promote disabled adaptations in order to improve the ratio of
             suitably adapted properties for disabled people;

            Continues to promote a register of adapted property and disabled people needing
             adapted accommodation in order to facilitate better matching;

1.10.3   Single People Strategy

            The preferences of single people need to be taken into account when providing
             accommodation and their desire for accommodation that meets their needs
             holistically in terms of family and other networks;

            Although single people are prepared to share, issues of privacy and space need to
             be taken into account when sharing is proposed. Also although respondents
             would accept one bedroom accommodation, the space standards in the property
             should be generous enough to allow some flexibility to enable them to relax, live,
             work and have children / friends / relatives to stay;

            There appears to be scope for developing single person accommodation that does
             not cater for cars as almost half (47.4%) or respondents said they would consider
             such accommodation;

            Household preferences of those planning to move are principally for independent
             accommodation for sale and for rent. This will require future delivery of units,
             principally 1 and 2 bedroom flats in each sector to meet the range of needs
             expressed;


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            It will be necessary to investigate funding to support key workers locally to
             access the market;

            Further equity sharing solutions could be investigated either through developers
             or through employers. Free land from planning negotiation and mixed sites could
             be used to deliver units at less than market price where the land value could be
             retained on perpetuity. Similarly major employers could provide similar capital
             support to provide accommodation for their key employees not able to access the
             market. Housing associations should be involved in control and management
             process.

1.10.4   Planning Strategy

            Negotiate with prospective developers towards achieving a target of up to 30%
             subsidised affordable homes from the total of all suitable sites coming forward for
             planning consent over the period to 2011. Each site will need to be assessed
             individually, targets being subject to wider planning, economic priority and
             sustainability considerations;

            This will require a flexible approach to individual site negotiations, taking
             account of the very limited number of sites which will have 100% affordable
             housing and sites which may be unsuitable mainly due to the character of the area
             or the range of available services;

            Consideration should be given to the adoption of a 15 unit or 0.5 hectare
             threshold for affordable housing negotiation in all settlements outside
             Basingstoke Town;

            Use site development briefs to promote the additional delivery of 200
             unsubsidised low-cost market units in the period to 2006 to meet the needs of new
             forming households with income levels adequate to access the local market.




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                                                    Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001



2       INTRODUCTION
2.1     Purpose, Aims And Objectives
2.1.1   Basingstoke and Deane Borough Council formally commissioned DCA in January
        2001 to carry out a Borough wide Housing Needs Assessment.

2.1.2   The purpose of the study was to examine the housing requirements (needs, aspirations
        and demands) for the communities and households of the Borough.

2.1.3   The aims were:-
           to determine the levels of housing supply and demand in the Borough;
           to support the annual HIP bid;
           to provide robust information at a ward level in accordance with PPG3, to guide
            the location of new provision and development of the Housing Strategy;
           to support Local Plan Policies.

2.1.4   The objectives were:-
           to determine the levels of housing demand and supply in the Borough and
            furthermore determine the extent of the annual supply required to meet the
            demand throughout the planning period of 2001 - 2006;
           to ensure that the information on which resource allocation and planning
            decisions are taken is sound with respect to current and future housing need and
            the need for affordable housing in the Borough and its regional context;
           to assist the Council in its preparation and development of local housing strategies
            and other related strategies;
           to provide data to support Local Plan housing policies.

2.2     Definitions
2.2.1   DETR have published Local Housing Needs Assessment: A Guide to Good Practice.
        This paper summarises the research undertaken by Glen Bramley and Hal Pawson of
        Heriot Watt University on local housing needs assessment. The Borough Housing
        Needs Study has been undertaken in line with this guidance in assessing people‟s
        preferences as well as their needs.

2.2.2   DCA work to a definition of housing requirements that encompasses demand, need and
        preferences. Households that can enter the general market without intervention of any
        sort can be defined as demand, whereas those households that are unable to enter the
        general market without some form of intervention can be defined as need. Our
        methodology enables us to identify this distinction by asking for both a household‟s
        characteristics in terms of size, current property condition and income and a household‟s
        views on suitability of current housing and preferences for moving or modification.


                                              12                                             DCA
                                                     Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001


2.2.3   Affordability in our view is defined by the relationship between local incomes and the
        local general housing market. In terms of affordable housing we would say:-
             Affordable housing is that provided, with subsidy, for people who are unable
             to resolve their housing requirements, in the general housing market because
             of the relationship between local housing costs and incomes.
2.2.4   The issue of affordability is central to our approach. Within the project, we capture a
        range of data on actual incomes and costs of housing and the likely level of incomes
        and the accessible costs of housing for moving or newly forming households. We also
        examine secondary data on incomes, house prices and rent levels. Thus a reliable
        indicator of affordability is derived that leads towards the identification of real options
        for meeting housing need.

2.3     Methodology
2.3.1   The study consisted of the following elements:-
        i.    A postal questionnaire to 7,700 households in 5 sub-areas;
        ii. A Dwelling Balance Analysis to determine shortfalls and surplus of property by
            location type and size;
        iii. A housing market survey utilising the Land Registry, Halifax a telephone survey
             of estate agents on the supply and cost of private rented housing;
        iv. Secondary data analysis drawing upon HIP and Housing Register data on the flow
            of social stock and need, 1991 Census, household and population projections and
            other national research.
2.3.2   The postal questionnaire was designed in consultation with officers of Basingstoke
        Borough Council based upon tried and tested research tools used in previous
        comparable assessments.
2.3.3   In our view, a large-scale postal survey is the most cost-effective means of identifying
        the general needs, aspirations and intentions of the population at ward level. Nearly
        all the housing needs studies undertaken by DCA have utilised postal questionnaire
        surveys as a means of primary data collection.
2.3.4   The questionnaire was in three parts and took no more than fifteen minutes to
        complete. Part One sought information about the existing housing situation including:-
             house type, number of rooms and facilities;
             adequacy of current housing;
             property repair and improvement requirements;
             forms of heating and energy efficiency levels;
             housing costs and income and equity;
             employment and travel;
             views about the area;
             special needs and adaptation needs;
             household composition by gender, age and ethnicity.


                                               13                                             DCA
                                                    Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001



2.3.5   Part Two of the questionnaire collected information on the existing household‟s
        moving intentions and Part Three collected information on the moving intentions of
        new forming or concealed households. Questions in these two sections included:-

           when people expect to move;

           who is forming new households;

           how much they can afford;

           preferred tenure, type, size and location of the housing they require;

           special needs.

2.3.6   All questionnaires are provided as Appendices to this report.


2.4     Sampling
2.4.1   Sample size depends on two key factors: the degree of accuracy we require for the
        sample and the extent to which there is variation in the population with regard to key
        characteristics. The most important points to note about these issues are:-

           beyond a certain sample size, there is no benefit in a bigger sample in terms of
            accuracy;

           the size of the population is largely irrelevant for the accuracy of the sample. It is
            the absolute size of the sample that is important;

           samples are often limited to 2,000 because beyond this point the extra cost has
            insufficient payoff in terms of accuracy.

2.4.2   We assume a 95% confidence rate that our results reflect the population. Using
        simple random sampling, the degree of sampling error with a sample size of 2,000
        households is in the region of 2%.

2.4.3   This means, for example, that if 53% of respondents in a survey do not have central
        heating then we can be 95% confident that 53% of households plus or minus 2% do
        not have central heating (i.e. 51% - 55%). Increasing the sample size at this level of
        sample has only a marginal effect on accuracy.

2.4.4   The main issue is whether non-respondents are different in some crucial way to
        responders (e.g. low education, older etc.). However, increasing the sample size does
        not necessarily alleviate this problem if some groups of people systematically do not
        respond. We do check for bias and re-weight where necessary by comparing known
        characteristics in the population with our findings.

2.4.5   The postal sample was stratified into 5 sub-areas and selected by random probability
        from the Council Tax Register. The sample was 12.7% of resident households,
        determined to ensure statistical validity within each sub-area.



                                              14                                             DCA
                                                    Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001



2.5     Promotion
2.5.1   A comprehensive promotion campaign was agreed with the Council to create
        awareness of the survey, and its importance to the Council. All councillors and parish
        clerks in the Borough were contacted to inform them of the survey and enlist their
        assistance in publicising it.

2.5.2   Posters were prepared for display in public places in all wards throughout the Borough
        and a press release was issued to publicise the survey.

2.6     Response Rate
        Table 2-1        Response Rate by Area

        Sub-area            Households      Sample        Response     Percentage Validity +

        Basingstoke           38,870        3,500           1,200           34.3          2.31

        North West             4,650        1,000             336           33.6          4.36

        South West             4,410        1,000             358           35.8          4.23

        North East            10,600        1,350             533           39.5          3.47

        South East             2,060          850             282           33.2          4.76

        Total                 60,590        7,700           2,709           35.2          1.54

2.6.1   The sample survey of 7,700 questionnaires was dispatched for delivery week
        commencing 22nd January 2001. The return deadline was 14th February 2001,
        allowing respondents a period of seventeen days including three weekends for
        completion and return.

2.6.2   Whilst the overall response was statistically valid at sub-area level. The rate of
        response on closing was so high that the survey was kept open until 19th February
        2001.

2.6.3   4.5% of all resident households in the Borough will have taken part in the survey. The
        response rate analysis by sub-area is detailed in Table 2-1.

2.6.4   The final overall response was 2,709, which is double the 1,250 minimum level
        recommended in the DETR Guidance. The highest response level was achieved in
        North East (39.5%) and the lowest in South East (33.2%).

2.6.5   All areas achieved responses over 33%, with 3 areas over 35%. A very high response
        rate.

2.6.6   All wards reached response levels based on household numbers adequate to ensure
        statistical validity at a confidence level of 95%. Validity ranged from + 2.31% to
        + 4.76% at ward level and was + 1.54% at Borough-wide level.


                                             15                                              DCA
                                                    Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001




2.7     Report Structure

2.7.1   The Dwelling Balance Analysis has been provided as a separate report.

2.7.2   This report consists of the following sections:-

        1   EXECUTIVE SUMMARY


        2   INTRODUCTION


        3   THE BASINGSTOKE & DEANE HOUSING MARKET


        4   CURRENT HOUSING IN THE BOROUGH


        5   FUTURE HOUSING REQUIREMENTS


        6   SPECIAL HOUSING NEEDS


        7   POPULATION GROWTH AND HOUSEHOLD FORMATION PROJECTIONS


        8   NEEDS ASSESSMENT, PLANNING & DELIVERY




                                              16                                             DCA
                                                   Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001



3       THE BASINGSTOKE & DEANE BOROUGH
        HOUSING MARKET

3.1     Introduction
3.1.1   The purpose of this section of the report is to describe the basic state of the housing
        market in the Borough as it was in the year ending 31st December 2000. The
        evaluation is based on specially prepared data taken directly from the records of the
        Halifax Plc given their high market share, the prices and other information included
        are felt to provide an accurate indication of the actual state of the housing market.
        Details of the Land Registry analysis were also examined, which give a wider picture
        covering all sales in the Borough.

3.1.2   The records include house price information by categories of dwellings, also included
        in the analysis is information about the volumes of sales of each type of dwelling,
        although for reasons of commercial confidentiality we are not able to report actual
        sample sizes for this part of the analysis.

3.1.3   This information sets the context for the key issue of the affordability of housing in
        the area, and in particular we can relate the analysis to the problems of low income
        evaluated through the household postal survey.


3.2     National Picture
3.2.1   Four increases in interest rates since September 1999 appear to be having an impact
        on demand as the slowdown in the quarterly rate of increase in prices in both the first
        and second quarter indicates. In addition, April 2000‟s abolition of mortgage interest
        tax relief will further curb demand.

3.2.2   Annual house price inflation fell from 11.5% in 1999; 8.1% in the third quarter and to
        5.7% in the fourth quarter of 2000.


3.3     Regional Picture
3.3.1   The annual rate of house price inflation in the South East Region is now 8.6%, much
        higher than the UK average of 5.7%.

3.3.2   House prices in the South East slowed during the fourth quarter of 2000 the first
        quarterly fall since 1995, but still above the UK average.

3.3.3   Hampshire is 9th in an index of 58 UK counties (average semi-detached prices)
        showing that Hampshire is at the top of the UK house price spread.




                                             17                                             DCA
                                                       Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001



3.4     The Housing Market
3.4.1   The Regional Market Table 3-1 details the prices paid for the main categories of house
        types for the whole of the South East with comparisons of house price index data.

3.4.2   The Halifax data is based on actual sales mortgaged to the respective societies and the
        information is a real indication of actual prices and incomes prevailing in the
        purchases being made in the South East Region. The Land Registry data incorporates
        wider non-mortgaged sales.

        Table 3-1         Average Regional House Prices - All Buyers 2000
         Property Type         Land Registry          Halifax
                               Average Price        Average Price

         Terraced                101,102              112,403
         Semi-detached           128,490              143,000
         Detached                239,315              256,244
         Bungalows*                     *             146,730
         Flats & maisonettes      82,041               85,141
         All properties          139,840              152,358

        Source: Halifax House Price Index, 4th Quarter 2000.
                Land Registry Residential Property Price Report, 4th Quarter 2000.
                *Land Registry and Nationwide figures do not identify bungalows separately.

3.4.3   Prices vary between the different data sources, we would expect the Land Registry
        figures to be lower in all cases given that these figures include non-mortgaged sales.

3.4.4   The table below examines regional against average house prices for the Borough
        recorded by the Land Registry against Hampshire prices and also compares the
        volume of sales for both Borough and County.

        Table 3-2         Average House Prices and Sales - All Buyers 2000
         Property Type         Land Registry        Land Registry    Land Registry    Land Registry
                               Basingstoke &         % of sales in    Hampshire        % of sales in
                                   Deane            Basingstoke &    Average Price     Hampshire
                               Average Price            Deane
         Terraced                104,485                 37.2          102,456              28.8
         Semi-detached           132,060                 20.7          124,939              24.5
         Detached                217,012                 31.2          231,564              33.6
         Flats & maisonettes      74,853                 10.9           78,137              13.1
         All properties          142,005               100.0           148,014            100.0

        Source: Land Registry Residential Property Price Report, 4th Quarter 2000.


                                               18                                               DCA
                                                     Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001


3.4.5   The largest volume of sales in the Borough was for terraced houses, which is principally
        modern 3-bed units, selling at an average price of £104,485. We would consider this to
        be the access price for first time buyers in the Borough as the incidence of sales of flats
        is low at 10.9%, however these sales are for all buyers and it is expected that the
        incidence of sales for first time buyers would be greater than 10.9%.

3.4.6   Based on a maximum multiplier of 3 times income, to access the market through flats
        a first time buyer would require an income of £25,000 per annum. To access terraced
        housing would require an income of £35,000 per annum. Those earning £25,000 -
        £35,000 could access cheaper flats but these are dependent upon availability and
        condition.

3.4.7   However, the Land Registry data does not identify first time buyer sales separately
        and in order to identify how much a first time buyer can access for we have looked at
        the 1997 house price data and have spoken to Estate Agents operating in the area. We
        estimate flat prices to be about the same for first time buyers and terraced prices to be
        6% lower. We assess that a first time buyer can access flats with an income of
        £25,000 and terraces at £25,000 - £32,000 depending on location.

3.5     Can ‘Concealed’ Households Afford to be in the Market?
3.5.1   This is a potentially very complicated question because it depends on the relationship
        of the supply of average and below average priced houses compared to the income
        profile of the area. In some areas where the income distribution is weighted towards
        people with above average earnings, and where there is an under-supply of above
        average priced houses, below average priced houses may be bought by households in
        these higher income brackets. The effect is that low-income households are squeezed
        out of the market. There is a strong indication that a considerable affordability
        problem may arise in the Borough from the relationship between local income and the
        supply of average and below average priced properties.

3.6     Concealed Households’ Access to the Market
3.6.1   The key issue is whether the concealed households identified in the postal survey have
        incomes which might provide access to the local housing market. If there is a problem
        it can be supposed that there is a demand for affordable rented housing. The data
        collected in the postal survey provides a good picture of the general income levels of
        the concealed households and we now use that information in the context of the Land
        Registry data on local house prices.

3.6.2   As can be seen from Table 3-3 below, 83% of the concealed households had incomes
        under £25,000, the average of the sales for the lowest part of the market where there is
        any substantial volume of sales taking place. On the face of it, very few of these
        people will be able to enter the local market without gaining access to a significant
        amount of capital (which is unlikely to occur).

3.6.3   These households exist in addition to the demand for new housing generated by
        demographic and net migration factors and are significant because they are by
        definition candidates for „non-market‟ accommodation or low cost housing with an
        element of subsidy support such as the Homebuy initiative.


                                               19                                             DCA
                                                    Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001


3.6.4   Some of the households in the £25,000 - £35,000 income band may be able to
        purchase cheaper flats and terraces in some areas but some of them will be at the
        margin if we compare with the first-time purchaser income levels and the nature of
        their employment will be a factor in acquiring a mortgage.

        Table 3-3         Annual Income of ‘New / Concealed’ Households
        Income                  All new households moving        New households moving
                                                                      within 1 year
                                                         os
                                 %          Cum         N        %        Cum         Nos
                              responses      %        implied responses    %        implied
         Below £10,000           12.3       12.3        559         17.9        17.9         251
         £10,001 - £15,000       34.1       46.4      1,552         25.3        43.2         354
         £15,001 - £20,000       25.6       72.0      1,165         32.1        75.3         449
         £20,001 - £25,000       10.9       82.9        496          5.6        80.9          78
         £25,001 - £27,500        4.7       87.6        214          2.7        83.6          38
         £27,501 - £30,000        2.7       90.3        123          4.6        88.2          64
         £30,001 - £32,500        1.8       92.1          82         0.0        88.2           0
         £32,501 - £35,000        2.9       95.0        132          2.7        90.9          38
         £35,001 - £40,000        1.5       96.5          68         3.9        94.8          55
         £40,001 - £45,000        0.0       96.5           0         0.0        94.8           0
         £45,001 - £50,000        1.3       97.8          59         1.7        96.5          24
         Above £50,000            2.2      100.0        100          3.5      100.0           49
         Total                                        4,550                                1,400
        Source: DCA Survey.

3.6.5   First-time buyers need to have a deposit and are likely to be restricted to a maximum
        mortgage of three time‟s annual income plus the annual income of the lower second
        income, if appropriate.
3.6.6   A household with an income of, say, about £25,000 would be able to achieve a
        maximum mortgage of around £75,000. Assuming capital was available to meet the
        deposit and costs, the property range of such a buyer is limited to prices up to a
        maximum of £80,000.
3.6.7   People with incomes below £25,000, 83% of these „new‟ households, probably could
        not afford to buy above the £80,000 - £90,000 range.
3.6.8   The average price paid by buyers of terraced housing in the Borough in the quarter to
        31st December 2000 was £104,485 with just over a third of all sales.
3.6.9   Access to the market is clearly dependent on availability, a factor which is particularly
        critical for low-income households, who can only enter the market in any numbers
        where there is an adequate supply of affordable dwellings.



                                              20                                             DCA
                                                   Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001



3.7     The Private Rented Sector
3.7.1   We offer below a few comments on the private rented sector but must stress that the
        evidence available is largely empirical. We approached some of the main private
        renting agencies operating in the Borough.
3.7.2   All agencies interviewed agreed that demand for rented property in the Borough was
        high. 57% said that the supply of properties available was adequate to meet the
        demand. 43% stated that supply is too low to meet the high demand, especially
        highlighted were shortages of 1 and 2 bed properties being in short supply.
3.7.3   Only 14% of the respondents indicated that their clients would accommodate Housing
        Benefit / Income Support cases.
3.7.4   A range of property types is available in the sector as a whole and are found in a
        variety of locations within the Borough. It would appear that the difference in rent
        level between furnished and unfurnished property is marginal with 42% of
        respondents indicating they charge only slightly more for furnished accommodation.
        57% indicated that the difference in cost was marginal.
3.7.5   Private Rent Sector Levels
        From the various sources approached, we set out below the prevailing private sector
        rent levels.

        Table 3-4         Average Rent Levels
         Property Type                   £ pm           £ pw        New Household Ability to
                                                                           Pay (%)
         1-bed flat                       535           120                     0
         2-bed flat                       665           150                     0
         2-bed terraced                   675           150                     0
         3-bed terraced                   765           175                     0
         2-bed semi-detached              710           160                   100%
         3-bed semi-detached              775           170         No Demand Expressed
         Detached                         865           190         No Demand Expressed
        Source : DCA Survey.
3.7.6   We then ran a series of cross-tabulations to see if those new concealed households
        who had specified their preferred tenure as Private Rent could actually access the
        market price levels that were identified in the Estate Agents Survey.
3.7.7   We found demand for rented housing in concealed households very low. Of those
        concealed households who preferred private rent we found gaps in average weekly
        rental prices and the affordability for the concealed households. Of those seeking a 1-
        bed flat, 87% could only afford up to £70 per week, while a further 13% could pay
        between £80 - £100 pw. The same was apparent for 2 bed flats with 56% only being
        able to afford between £51 - £70. For a 2-bed semi-detached, all respondents could
        afford market rent levels, stating £151 - £200 pw.


                                             21                                             DCA
                                                   Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001



3.7.8   The ability of new households to pay the weekly rent levels is shown as a percentage
        of those in this group who can pay the relevant level or above and in the case of 3 bed
        semi-detached and detached housing, no demand was expressed for these house types.
        We conclude that the private sector makes very little contribution to access to
        affordable rented housing where available. The sector is not accessible to lower paid
        workers unless they contribute a very high proportion of their disposable income.
        Demand expressed in the survey was also very low.

3.8     Conclusions
3.8.1   The key fact is that, based on conservative assumptions, access to home ownership is
        beyond the reach of 83% of the concealed households identified in the DCA survey on
        any realistic assessment of availability of properties. Additionally, the private rented
        sector makes little contribution to access to affordable housing and this almost
        certainly underlies the problem of concealment that exists in the Borough.

3.8.2   The analysis shows that the housing market excludes many families and single
        person households who are currently seeking access to local housing. There clearly
        is an „affordability‟ problem in the Borough for low-income households. Prices in
        the UK increased on average by 5.7% in the year to December 2000, 8.6% in the
        South East.

3.8.3   People who cannot enter the market under these circumstances may never be able to
        do so, short of some collapse in the market or a significant change in their income
        level. Further house price increases above wage inflation in 2001 would make access
        to market housing more difficult to achieve and would impact on households with
        marginal incomes most significantly.




                                             22                                             DCA
                                                      Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001



4       CURRENT HOUSING IN THE BOROUGH
4.1     Tenure, Type and Amenities
4.1.1   This section deals with the analysis of the survey data on existing households and
        issues relating to their current accommodation. Given the nature of the random sample
        of households within agreed sub-areas embodied in the postal survey, we would
        expect tenure type to provide some broad validation of the representativeness of the
        sample.
4.1.2   It should be noted that in all cross-tabulations data is included only where the
        respondent has answered each element (question) involved, hence there are some
        small discrepancies when compared with the tables relating to a single data source.
4.1.3   In practice, the results clearly understated the number of Housing Association rented
        properties when compared with the Council‟s HIP data at 1st April 2000. A process of
        re-weighting was felt to be necessary to address this imbalance in tenure.
4.1.4   The Council provided DCA with a schedule of Housing Association rented and
        shared-ownership properties by ward which could be identified to the given ward
        groups. For each ward group - in the absence of further objective evidence - we
        adjusted the figures derived from our survey data upwards to the correct Housing
        Association figure provided. The „balancing‟ adjustment to the total households per
        ward group provided by the Council was made by reducing the owner occupation
        figures by the same amount. The split between owner-occupier with mortgage and
        without mortgage was calculated pro rata to the incidence of the two categories in our
        survey data. The underlying assumption - borne out by other DCA surveys - is that the
        shortfall in Housing Association tenure implied by the survey data is caused in the
        main by a tendency from a higher proportion of owner occupiers to respond to the
        questionnaire than those in the social rented sector.
4.1.5   The data set out on tenure at Table 4-1 below is in line with the HIP data and is the
        basis for the calculation of all the subsequent tables i.e. all responses are given the
        weight appropriate to the actual tenure balance in Basingstoke & Deane.

        Table 4-1           Tenure of Present Households
        (Question 1)
         Tenure                          %          Group       Nos        UK   Local Area         DCA
                                                     %        implied    Census Census             HNS
                                                                          1991    1991             1997
         HA rented                     17.4          17.4     10,549       22.0         20.2         15.3
         Privately rented                4.1                   2,455
         Rented tied to employment       1.2          5.5        702       10.0          8.6            7.3
         Other                           0.2                       92
         Owner occupier - mortgage     49.4                   29,971
         Owner occupier - outright     27.2          77.1     16,448       68.0         71.2         77.4
         Shared ownership                0.5                     289
         Total                        100.0         100.0     60,506     100.0        100.0       100.0


                                               23                                              DCA
                                                  Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001



4.1.6    The UK Census figures for 1991 are now ten years out of date and relate to a total
         dwelling figure of around 54,000 as compared with around 61,800 in the Council‟s
         HIP statistics at 1st April 2000. (The latter figure includes around 1,000 vacant
         dwellings).

4.1.7    Given the further move towards owner occupation through „Right to Buy‟ legislation
         since 1991 and the tendency of dwellings created since 1991 to be predominantly in
         the owner occupied sector, the survey results appear compatible with the Local Area
         Census 1991.

4.1.8    The proportion of owner-occupiers without mortgage has increased in 2001 to around
         27% as compared with 21% in 1997 with a corresponding decrease in those with
         mortgages. The same trend towards paying off mortgage as tax incentives decrease
         appears to apply in Basingstoke & Deane as has been evidenced in most of our recent
         surveys. Again the increase in dwellings since 1997 (around 2,900) must largely
         relate to owner occupation and therefore have some impact on any comparison with
         the 1997 data.

4.1.9    Table 4-2 below indicates the types of accommodation occupied by the households
         responding to the question.

         Table 4-2       Type of Accommodation
         (Question 2)

 Type                          %        Group       Nos         UK   Local Area         DCA
                                         %        implied     Census  Census            HNS
                                                               1991    1991             1997

 Semi-detached house          23.5                 14,128

 Detached house               30.5       65.2      18,371       53.0         56.4        63.7

 Bungalow -semi / detached    11.2                  6,722

 Bungalow -terraced             2.0                 1,184
                                         24.7                   27.0       32.0*         26.0
 Terraced house               22.7                 13,681

 Flat / Maisonette              9.3       9.3       5,624       20.0         10.7         9.7

 Bedsit / Room only             0.5                   331
                                          0.8                    0.0          0.9         0.6
 Mobile home                    0.3                   206

 Total                       100.0      100.0      60,247     100.0        100.0       100.0

(*NB: Approximately 2% has been taken from „Terraced‟ and added to other houses to allow
      like for like comparison on terraced bungalows which would be included in the Census
      as terraced in the absence of a „bungalow‟ heading).




                                            24                                             DCA
                                                      Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001



4.1.10   The Census data shows a higher proportion of terraced houses than in our sample
         (over 32% as compared with the survey figure of under 25%) with a correspondingly
         lower proportion of non-terraced houses. The additional properties in the Council
         area since 1991 referred to at 4.1.6 above (likely in the main to have been non-
         terraced properties) will have had a significant impact on the proportion of non-
         terraced properties overall. Even allowing for the impact of new stock, the total
         number of terraced houses is likely to be understated in our sample but we do not feel
         that any skew towards non-terraced properties would have an impact on results
         sufficient to merit special weighting, especially in view of the representative tenure
         referred to above. The difference between the present survey and that carried out by
         DCA in 1997 did not appear significant but it did endorse a more marginal
         understatement of terraced properties in the 2001 survey. The categorisation of some
         bungalows as terraced did not apply in the 1997 survey.

         Table 4-3        Form of Tenure by Property Type
         (Question 2 by Q.1)

          Type                         Owner    Owner Private            HA       shared Tied to
                                      occupier occupier rented          rented    owner- employ-
                                        with      no                               ship*  ment*
                                      mortgage mortgage

          Semi-detached                27.0          21.5      26.8       15.3      35.0      22.1

          Detached                     38.0          37.2      15.8        2.8       1.6      30.7

          Terraced                     25.1          13.6      24.1       31.3      20.0       4.6

          Flat / Maisonette              3.0          4.4      23.8       31.1      22.4      13.0

          Bungalow -semi / detached      6.6         20.4        6.0      10.5      10.7      20.1

          Bungalow -terraced             0.2          1.7        0.6       7.8       0.0       1.0

          Bedsit / room only             0.1          0.2        2.6       1.2       0.6       8.5

          Mobile home                    0.0          1.0        0.3       0.0       9.7       0.0

          Total                       100.0         100.0     100.0     100.0     100.0      100.0

         (* Low volume of data).

4.1.11   A cross-tabulation relating form of tenure to property type also indicated that 70% of
         flat / maisonette accommodation was in the rented sector; 48% of bungalow
         accommodation in the owner occupied no mortgage sector.

4.1.12   Respondents were asked to indicate the number of bedrooms in their current home.




                                               25                                              DCA
                                                       Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001


         Table 4-4          Number of Bedrooms
         (Question 5)
          Bedrooms                         %             Nos implied        DCA HNS 1997
                                                                                 %
          Bedsit                       0.8                    457                0.5
          One                          8.2                  4,950                6.6
          Two                         17.7                 10,696               19.4
          Three                       46.3                 27,895               46.2
          Four                        21.9                 13,222               22.6
          Five or more                 5.1                  3,045                4.7
          Total                      100.0                 60,265              100.0

4.1.13   The average across the stock in the Borough was 2.96 bedrooms, somewhat higher
         than that found in other recent DCA surveys in which 2.70 has been around average.
         The breakdown of size by bedroom in percentage terms as between the ownership and
         rental sectors was accessed by cross-tabulation with the following results:-
         Table 4-5          Number of Bedrooms by Tenure
          Tenure                  Bedsit       One     Two       Three      Four       Five+    Total
          Properties owned         0.2          3.4    14.2      48.7       27.3        6.2      100.0
          Properties rented        2.6         24.5    29.7      38.2        3.7        1.3      100.0
          HA rented only           1.9         27.9    28.3      39.8        2.1        0.0      100.0

4.1.14   As might be expected, some 96% of four (or more) bedroom properties were in the
         owner occupied sector; 69% of bedsit / one-bedroomed properties in the rented sector.
         Table 4-6          Access to Basic Facilities
         (Question 6)
          Heating Insulation         All        Owner    Owner Private         HA       Shared Tied to
          Facilities               tenures     occupier occupier rented       rented    owner- employ-
                                      %          with      no                            ship*  ment*
                                               mortgage mortgage
         CH-F                       91.2        93.9      88.6       72.7      93.1      99.1      66.5
         CH-P                        5.1         3.3       7.6       14.6       4.0       0.6      16.5
         HWTI                       81.5        85.0      88.0       64.2      66.4      68.5      71.3
         LI                         77.6        84.1      85.4       42.6      57.5      47.2      50.6
         DG-F                       68.3        69.7      70.7       30.0      72.6      43.3      21.6
         DG-P                       13.7        14.0      15.8       17.6       8.7      21.0      16.2
         WPI                        55.7        63.6      63.7       25.8      29.5      43.5      31.3
         CWI                        42.2        39.0      53.3       15.7      42.1      26.0      13.1
         DP                         25.0        25.3      29.1        3.9      24.0      21.0       3.8
         (* Low volume of data).
         Heating / Insulation facilities:-
         CH-F (central heating -full), CH-P (central heating -partial), HWTI (hot water tank
         insulated), LI (loft insulation). DG-F (double-glazing -full), DG-P (double-glazing -partial),
         WPI (water pipes insulated), CWI (cavity wall insulation), DP (draught proofing).

                                                  26                                             DCA
                                                   Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001



4.1.15   Households with central heating at around 96% were far above the national average in
         the 1991 Census (78%) and well above the average of 88% found in the 1996 English
         House Condition Survey (EHCS). At local area level, the 1991 figure was 92%; that
         in the 1997 survey 94%. Full double-glazing at 68% was also well above the UK
         average of 60% (EHCS 1996).

4.1.16   In the case of Housing Association rented accommodation alone, over 97% had some
         form of central heating, 1% above the all tenure average, and 93% had full central
         heating as compared with the all tenure level of 91%. The Housing Association
         rented sector generally performed far below the all tenure average in loft, hot water
         tank and water pipes insulation.

4.1.17   The comparison between tenure types revealed one particularly significant pattern.
         Private rented accommodation appeared to have a far lower level of access to all the
         nominated facilities than the all tenure average.

4.1.18   Only 217 implied households (0.4%) indicated shared facilities. The 1991 Census data
         indicated 191 households in non self-contained dwellings, 134 of which were living in
         bedsits. Of the 217 cases above, some 200 shared at least 4 of the 5 facilities
         nominated. The corresponding figure in the 1997 DCA survey was 280.


4.2      Adequacy of Present Dwelling / Improvement Required
4.2.1    Respondents were asked if their current accommodation was adequate for their needs.
         89% indicated that their accommodation was adequate; 11% (6,700 implied) that it
         was inadequate. A level in the region of 88% has been a typical result in recent DCA
         surveys. From a cross-tabulation some discrepancy in satisfaction was evident but
         largely consistent with results in other DCA surveys. The satisfaction level for
         Housing Association rented accommodation (86%) was higher than the average
         emerging for Council rented accommodation from similar DCA surveys (75-80%).
         Satisfaction in the private rented sector was markedly lower than the all tenure
         average, as might be expected from the comment at 4.1.17 above.

         Table 4-7        Adequacy by Tenure
         (Question 8a by Q.1)

          Tenure                                  %
                                               adequate
          Owner occupied with mortgage            88.9
          Owner occupied no mortgage              95.3
          Private rented                          62.5
          Housing Association rented              86.1
          Shared ownership*                       89.7
          Tied to employment*                     75.5

         (* Low volume of data).


                                             27                                             DCA
                                                     Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001




4.2.2   Table 4-8 shows the reasons for any inadequacy as a percentage based on responses to
        a multiple choice question. Responses were received from a number of households,
        which had not stated that overall the property was inadequate -viz. from some 7,790
        implied household responses rather than the 6,700 referred to at 4.2.1 above. The %
        households column below is based on the former figure which is taken to include all
        respondents who can identify at least some measure of inadequacy. On average each
        respondent made 1.8 choices.

        Table 4-8         Reason for Inadequacy of Present Accommodation
        (Question 8b)

         Reasons                                 %                   %              Nos implied
                                             responses           households         (all choices)

         Too small                                 27.7              49.8              3,878

         Needs improvement / repairs               17.6              31.6              2,459

         Poor public transport                      9.9              17.7              1,382

         Rent / mortgage too expensive              7.1              12.7                992

         Too costly to heat                         6.4              11.6                900

         Lack of local facilities                   6.3              11.3                879

         Unsuitable for disabled person             6.0              10.8                844

         Too large                                  4.9                8.8               682

         Unsuitable for elderly person              4.8                8.5               664

         Housing affecting health                   4.5                8.1               627

         Tenancy insecure                           3.0                5.5               425

         Too isolated                               1.8                3.3               258

         Total                                    100.0             179.7

4.2.3   The largest single issue was that the dwelling was too small, referred to by around
        50% of households with a problem and implying around 3,880 cases in the Borough
        as a whole - slightly above the level commonly found in our experience. 32% or so of
        the group mentioned that their dwelling needed improvement / repairs. Some 11% of
        households referred to unsuitability for the disabled - 10% or so have been around the
        average in DCA surveys. Interestingly, a relatively high proportion of households
        (around 18%) identified poor public transport. We set out in the next few paragraphs
        some inadequacy issues relating to specific respondent groups.




                                             28                                                DCA
                                                    Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001


4.2.4    Condition / Disability
          14% of all reasons given for inadequacy (525 implied) by households affected by
           a disability related to repair need - second only in importance to unsuitability for a
           disabled person (16%).
4.2.5    Tenure / Repair
            Of the reasons for inadequacy, repair need was identified by 32.5% of those in
             Housing Association rented accommodation (798 implied); 19.8% (487) of those
             in private rented accommodation. and 43% (1,063) in the owner occupied sector.
4.2.6    Tenure / Size
            66% (2,557 implied) of all those households giving „too small‟ as a reason for
             inadequacy were in the owner occupied with mortgage sector; 16% in the
             Housing Association rented sector; 8% in the private rented sector and only 7% in
             the owner occupier no mortgage sector;
            69% of households in the owner-occupier with mortgage sector gave „too small‟
             as a reason.
4.2.7    Condition / House Type
            34% of the need for repair was in terraced dwellings (846 implied) but as a
             proportion of house types the results were similar for semi-detached, terraced,
             flat / maisonette and bungalow (semi / detached) at between 35-40%.
4.2.8    Condition / Household Income
            We could establish no correlation between low household income and the need
             for repair which has emerged in other surveys. The proportion of responses on the
             need for repairs was well spread across income band. The highest proportion of
             any given income band indicating need for repairs was the £15-20K band at 48%.
4.2.9    Condition / Age Groups
            51% (1,111 implied) of all need for repairs fell within the 25-44 age group and
             represented 34% of that age group indicating inadequacy. 24% fell into the 45-59
             age band (35% of that age group);
            The corollary of the above figures is that the need for repairs was not unduly
             prevalent in the 60+ age groups. A similar pattern applied to responses in the „too
             costly to heat‟ category with 40% of all such responses attributable to the 25-44
             age group.
4.2.10   Condition / Ethnicity
            The condition of the property did not appear to be a significant issue for Black &
             Minority Ethnic households but responses were arguably too low to offer any
             valid comment.
4.2.11   It should be borne in mind that arguably the main finding from this question is the
         high degree of satisfaction expressed but some caveat has to be drawn in relation to
         the degree which respondents maybe reluctant to describe their accommodation as
         unsuitable. The large group saying their current dwelling was too small may to some
         extent represent a natural demand in market terms (i.e. people looking to move „up-
         market‟).



                                              29                                             DCA
                                                           Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001


4.2.12   The next question in the section sought to identify which aspects of a given range of
         work respondents felt were required on their property.
4.2.13   Just over 39% (23,870 implied) of the sample responded to the question. Responses
         were again on multiple choice basis with respondents making around 1.6 choices on
         average.
         Table 4-9         Work Required on the Property
         (Question 8c)

          Improvements                     %                        %                    Nos
                                       responses                households             implied
          Window repairs                     23.7                     37.4                  8,933
          Insulation                         21.6                     34.1                  8,128
          Improved heating                   17.4                     27.5                  6,555
          Re-wiring                          15.3                     24.2                  5,768
          Roof repairs                       13.5                     21.3                  5,091
          Damp proofing                       8.5                     13.5                  3,213
          Total                             100.0                  158.0

4.2.14   37% of households indicated a need to carry out window repairs, the largest single
         item as is usually the case in our surveys and to the extent commonly found. A
         breakdown by tenure is offered at Table 4-10 below.
         Table 4-10       Work Required on the Property by Tenure
         (Question 8c by Q.1)

          Work required             Owner    Owner Private                HA        Shared Tied to
                                   occupier occupier rented              rented     owner- employ-
                                     with      no                                    ship*  ment*
                                   mortgage mortgage
          Improved heating           27.5           21.0       42.5          30.4     0.0       38.8
          Re-wiring                  24.4           26.5       25.8          20.5     0.0       24.0
          Damp proofing               8.1            7.1       37.5          32.5     0.0       28.3
          Roof repairs               24.6           26.4       10.2           7.0     0.0       18.7
          Window repairs             36.6           31.2       66.3          33.4    68.1       76.3
          Insulation                 36.6           25.7       40.8          33.1    31.9       49.9

         (* Low volume of data).
4.2.15   The most significant issues arising were probably the high percentage of private
         rented households indicating the need for window repairs (66%) and improved heating
         (over 42%), endorsing the comments at 4.1.17 and 4.2.1 above. Damp proofing was a
         low priority in the owner occupier sector; roof repairs were low priority (only 7%
         indicated such a requirement) in the Housing Association rented sector.


                                                    30                                                 DCA
                                                    Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001



4.2.16   We followed up with a parallel question on what repairs / improvements were
         intended over the next three years. Responses to a multiple-choice question were in
         this case received from around 25% of the sample (14,953 implied), each making
         around 1.3 choices. The implication of the results might on the face of it be that only
         around two thirds of those identifying a requirement intended to take action in the next
         three years. However, the cross-tabulation by tenure indicated that few respondents in
         the rented sector replied presumably because action would be the responsibility of the
         landlord. Consequently, Table 4-11 below is essentially about owner-occupiers (95%).
         Table 4-11       Work Intended in the Next Three Years
         (Question 8c)
          Improvements                         % responses     % households        Nos implied
          Window repairs                         30.6             41.0                6,125
          Roof repairs                           20.4             27.4                4,097
          Insulation                             18.2             24.4                3,643
          Improved heating                       14.4             19.3                2,893
          Re-wiring                              12.5             16.8                2,511
          Damp proofing                            3.9             5.2                  784
          Total                                 100.0            134.1

4.2.17   41% of households indicated a need to carry out window repairs, by some margin the
         largest single item. At the other end of the scale only 5% of households intended to
         carry out damp proofing work.

4.3      Household Composition and Household Profile
4.3.1    Large amounts of data were collected about the structure of the households and we
         have constructed a summary table to show the basic pattern of household types. It is
         based on the categories used by the ONS to construct their „Social Trends‟ statistical
         series but is not exactly congruent due to the manner in which the different data sets
         are collected.
         Table 4-12      Family Composition
         (Question 14b&c)
          Family Composition             %          Group     UK Census Local Area DCA HNS
                                                     %          1991    Census 1991  1997
          1 adult >60                   10.7
          1 adult <60                   11.2         23.2        31.0           25.3         19.6
          1 adult + other                1.3
          Couple no child               36.3
          Couple 1-2 children           26.9                     60.0           69.9         74.8
                                                     71.1
          Couple 3+ children             6.1
          Couple + others                1.8
          Single parent - dep child      5.7                      9.0            4.8           5.6
                                                      5.7
          Other single parent            0.0
          Total                        100.0        100.0       100.0         100.0         100.0



                                               31                                            DCA
                                                    Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001


4.3.2   Our survey gave a profile very close to the Local Area Census 1991 results. The split
        between adult and couple households differed by around 3½ percentage points in each
        case. Single parent households were only marginally more than the 1991 level,
        whereas most of our recent surveys have produced quite significant increases in this
        category.

        Table 4-13        Number in Household
        (Question 14a)
         Number in household                       %             Nos implied
         One                                       24.0             14,441
         Two                                       39.3             23,639
         Three                                     13.3              7,986
         Four                                      16.7             10,073
         Five                                       5.3              3,208
         Six                                        1.1                650
         Seven or more                              0.3                142
         Total                                    100.0             60,139

4.3.3   The profile emerging from our survey equated to 2.45 persons per household on
        average - marginally above the UK average of around 2.40 persons and below the
        Borough 1991 Census figure of 2.66. The breakdown by tenure is set out at Table
        4-14 below.

        Table 4-14       Numbers in Household by Tenure
        (Question 13a by Q.1)
         Tenure                                  Nos in
                                               household
         Owner occupier with mortgage              2.89
         Owner occupier no mortgage                1.98
         Private rented                            2.15
         Housing Association rented                1.78
         Shared ownership*                         2.46
         Tied to employment*                       2.15
         Other*                                    1.65
        (* Low volume of data).

4.3.4   The owner occupied with mortgage sector would be expected to have a relatively high
        proportion of families. The Housing Association rented sector figure was around the
        level found in other DCA surveys for Council rented with 45% single person
        households. 84% of the owner-occupier no mortgage households contained no more
        than two persons, reflecting the higher average age in this form of tenure and the fact
        that children will in the main have left home. Some 13% of the owner-occupier with
        mortgage households were single person households, in line with 12-15% in most
        DCA surveys.

                                             32                                              DCA
                                                    Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001



4.3.5   If total household numbers in our survey (60,500) are grossed up by 2.45, the
        population figure implied would be around 148,000. The best Council estimate of
        current population would appear to be around 156,000 (1998), suggesting that the
        average number in household for the Borough as implied in our survey is 2.58.

4.3.6   We offer below a broad assessment of „under-occupation‟ based on a modified form
        of bedroom standard viz. more than one spare bedroom is taken as a benchmark of
        „under-occupation‟. We also offer a broad assessment of „over-occupation‟ on two
        bases. Firstly as a modified form of bedroom standard viz. insufficient bedrooms to
        sleep individual occupants but allowing for one shared bedroom.

4.3.7   On this basis, „under-occupation‟ affects 20.1% of all households in the Borough;
        „over-occupation‟ affects only 3.6%. However, the specific ages of children in
        particular could be a factor in under-assessing under-occupation and, more
        importantly, over-assessing overcrowding. The over-occupation figure was well
        below the average UK figure produced by the English Housing Survey 1998 (6%).

4.3.8   The assessment of under / over occupation by tenure revealed some quite wide
        disparity between tenure types as indicated at Table 4-15 below.

        Table 4-15       Under / Over Occupation by Tenure
        (Question 14a by Q.5 & Q.1)

         Tenure                                  % under            % over
                                                 occupied          occupied

         Owner occupied with mortgage             16.6                4.4

         Owner occupied no mortgage               35.7                0.4

         Private rented                           11.2                3.2

         Housing Association rented                7.7                6.0

         Shared ownership*                        33.9               20.8

         Tied to employment*                      19.8                1.0

         Other*                                   21.7                0.0

        (* Low volume of data).

4.3.9   In general, under- all occupation at around 20% was higher than the average level
        found in recent DCA surveys (15%). Under occupation within the owner occupied no
        mortgage sector (some 36%), which will include a high proportion of elderly
        households, was also above that found in similar DCA surveys in which 25% or so
        have on average appeared to be under occupied in the sector. Housing Association
        rented under occupation was relatively low against the all-tenure average as has been
        evidenced in most DCA surveys.




                                            33                                               DCA
                                                   Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001




4.3.10   Housing Association rented over-occupation at 6% was the same as the UK average
         over-occupation figure (6%) quoted above but above the overall level in the Borough
         on the basis of our survey (3.6%).

4.3.11   The particularly low incidence of over-occupation amongst owner-occupiers without a
         mortgage was a key factor in producing an overall level of over-occupation well
         below the national average as referred to above.

         Table 4-16       Population Age Groups
         (Question 14c)

          Age group                                %            Local Area
                                                                Census 1991

          0 - 10                                  14.4
                                                                     21.0
          11 - 15                                  6.3

          16 - 24                                  8.7               13.8

          25 - 44                                 27.8               32.3

          45 - 59                                 21.7               17.1

          60 - 74                                 15.3               10.9

          75 - 84                                  4.4                3.9

          85 +                                     1.4                1.0

          Total                                  100.0             100.0


4.3.12 The figures show some deviation between the sample and the 1991 Census local
       area data on a category by category basis as far as comparable figures are
       available. There was a greater concentration of persons in our data in the 45 -74 age
       groups (37%) as compared with around 28% in the Census. The 16-44 age groups
       in our data showed 36.5% against 46% in the Census. The 0-15 age group was the
       same in our survey as in 1991. The over 75 age group had increased by around
       18% and within the latter category the 85+ population had increased by 40%. The
       profile overall appears to indicate some ageing of the population similar to that
       found in many of our other recent surveys in which the percentage by which the
       45-74 age groups increase and the 16-44 age groups decrease has commonly been
       6-8 percentage points.




                                            34                                              DCA
                                                     Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001


         Table 4-17        Employment Status of Head Of Household
         (Question 14e)

                                                           %             Nos implied
          Full-time employee (30+ hours)                 46.7              25,297
          Wholly retired                                 25.7              13,853
          Part-time employee (up to 30 hours)            11.1               5,973
          Self-employed                                    6.7              3,637
          Looking after the home                           6.4              3,429
          Permanently sick / disabled                      2.1              1,117
          Unemployed / available for work                  1.1                608
          On Government training scheme                    0.1                  44
          In full-time education                           0.1                  43
          Total                                         100.0              54,001

4.3.13   Only 89% of Heads of Households responded to the question on employment. Some
         47% of households specifically indicated full-time (30+ hours per week) employment
         -a high proportion in our experience. Only 1% or so indicated that they were
         unemployed and available for work. The position for all household members
         responding is set out at Table 4-18 below, the percentage relating to the 80% or so of
         the total implied population actually offering a reply. The proportion in full-time
         education was around 16%.

         Table 4-18        Employment Status of All Household Members
         (Question 14e)

                                                           %             Nos implied
          Full-time employee                             41.1              49,081
          Wholly retired                                 18.1              21,648
          In full-time education                         15.6              18,561
          Part-time employee                               9.7             11,549
          Looking after the home                           6.6              7,861
          Self-employed                                    5.6              6,702
          Permanently sick / disabled                      2.1              2,509
          Unemployed / available for work                  1.0              1,236
          On Government training scheme                    0.2                200
          Total                                         100.0             119,347



                                                35                                            DCA
                                                      Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001




         Table 4-19           Occupation of Head Of Household
         (Question 14f)

                                                      %            Nos implied
          Professional                               27.6             14,221
          Retired                                    26.9             13,874
          Managerial / Technical                     18.3              9,430
          Skilled - manual                            7.2              3,731
          Skilled - non-manual                        4.6              2,345
          Unskilled                                   3.9              1,990
          Partially skilled                           3.7              1,897
          Other                                       7.8              4,040
          Total                                     100.0             51,528

4.3.14   28% or so of the Heads of Household specifically described themselves as
         professional; 46% or so as professional / managerial / technical. The result for all
         household members set out at Table 4-20 was broadly similar. (Overall, around 83%
         of those responding on employment status answered the question on occupation
         status).

         Table 4-20           Occupation of All Household Members
         (Question 14f)

                                                      %            Nos implied
          Professional                               24.9             24,543
          Retired                                    22.9             22,518
          Managerial / Technical                     17.2             16,946
          Skilled - manual                            8.5              8,378
          Skilled - non-manual                        6.6              6,522
          Unskilled                                   4.3              4,224
          Partially skilled                           4.3              4,192
          Other                                      11.3             11,172
          Total                                     100.0             98,495

4.3.15   In the case of ethnic origin the breakdown at Table 4-21 below refers only to „Self‟
         which we take in the main to be the Head of Household. The response level to the
         question was around 89%.



                                               36                                              DCA
                                                  Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001



        Table 4-21       Ethnic Origin of Households
        (Question 13d)
                                                   %            Nos implied
         White                                    96.5            51,809
         Irish                                     0.6               361
         Bangladeshi                               0.6               301
         Black Caribbean                           0.3               164
         Pakistani                                 0.3               143
         Indian                                    0.3               142
         Chinese                                   0.3               139
         Black African                             0.2                93
         Black Other                               0.2                93
         Other                                     0.7               395
         Total                                   100.0            53,640


4.4     Costs of Present Housing and Income
4.4.1   The next group of tables relate to the cost of accommodation and household incomes,
        beginning with a question on weekly rent paid which was answered by around 21% of
        households (13,000 implied) - some 94% of renters only in the tenure profile at Table
        4-1 above.
        Table 4-22       Weekly Rent Paid for Present Accommodation
        (Question 16a)
         Weekly rent                               %              Cum %           DCA HNS
                                                                                    1997
        Below £50 pw / £215 pm                    19.6              19.6             24.2
        £51 - £60 pw / £216 - £260 pm             10.5              30.1             25.2
        £61 - £70 pw / £261 - £300 pm             20.1              50.2             23.9
        £71 - £80 pw / £301 - £350 pm             22.5              72.7               6.5
        £81 - £100 pw / £351 - £430 pm            11.7              84.4
        £101 - £150 pw / £431 - £650 pm            7.5              91.9
        £151 - £200-pw / £651 - £865 pm            5.1              97.0             20.2
        £201 - £250 pw / £866 - £1,080 pm          1.4              98.4
        Above £251 pw / £1,080 pm                  1.6             100.0

4.4.2   The table indicates that some 30% of renters in the sample paid less than £60 per
        week; 50% less than £70 per week; 73% less than £80 per week. (NB: Over three
        quarters of those renting were in the Housing Association sector). The 1997 survey
        indicated some 73% below £70 per week but account has to be taken of subsequent
        rent rises.

                                            37                                               DCA
                                                    Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001


4.4.3   From cross-tabulation the percentage breakdown of rent levels for the two main rental
        tenures was as follows:-
        Table 4-23       Rent Level / Tenure
        (Question 16a by Q.1)
         Weekly rent                             Private rent     HA rented
        Below £50 pw / £215 pm                       9.6              19.4
        £51 - £60 pw / £216 - £260 pm                5.4              11.8
        £61 - £70 pw / £261 - £300 pm                5.0              25.5
        £71 - £80 pw / £301 - £350 pm                4.0              29.3
        £81 - £100 pw / £351 - £430 pm              12.7              11.5
        £101 - £150 pw / £431 - £650 pm             30.7               1.1
        £151 - £200-pw / £651 - £865 pm             24.3               0.6
        £201 - £250 pw / £866 - £1,080 pm            2.4               0.4
        Above £251 pw / £1,080 pm                    5.9               0.4
         Total                                     100.0            100.0

4.4.4   Only 24% of private sector rents appeared to be relevant to households on lower
        incomes (i.e. under £80 per week).
4.4.5   The next table shows that, of the 72% responding as homeowners in the sample (94%
        of owner occupiers in Table 4-7 above), some 36% paid no mortgage (outright
        owners) with a further 25% or so paying less than £400 per month. The latter figure
        compares with 43% in 1997, although again house price rises since 1997 have to be
        taken into account.
        Table 4-24         Monthly Mortgage Paid for Present Accommodation
        (Question 16b)
         Monthly mortgage                            %              Cum %           DCA HNS
                                                                                      1997
         Nil                                        36.4              36.4             28.2
         Below    £200                               6.3              42.7
                                                                                       15.8
         £201 - £250                                 4.3              47.0
         £251 - £300                                 5.0              52.0               9.9
         £301 - £400                                 9.7              61.7             17.5
         £401 - £500                                10.0              71.7             11.1
         £501 - £600                                 9.0              80.7               6.9
         £601 - £750                                 7.7              88.4
         £751 - £1,000                               7.4              95.8             10.6
         Above    £1,000                             4.2            100.0



                                            38                                                 DCA
                                                       Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001



4.4.6    The next question probed for information about household income and the results are
         set out in Table 4-25.

         Table 4-25        Gross Annual Income of Households
         (Question 16c)
          Annual income                 %              Cum %          UK 1997-        DCA HNS
                                                                       1998 *           1997
          Below     £5,000               4.4               4.4
                                                                         33.4               37.0
          £5,001 - £10,000              10.5             14.9
          £10,001 - £15,000              9.4             24.3            14.1               15.0
          £15,001 - £20,000             10.0             34.3            13.1               13.0
          £20,001 - £25,000              9.4             43.7
          £25,001 - £30,000              9.5             53.2
          £30,001 - £35,000              7.9             61.1
                                                                         39.4               35.0
          £35,001 - £40,000              8.3             69.4
          £40,001 - £50,000             11.1             80.5
          Above     £50,000             19.5            100.0
         (* Derived from weekly earnings levels per key data 1997/98 National Office of
            Statistics).
4.4.7    The response rate to the income question was around 75% and should give a good
         picture of the income levels in the Borough. The table shows that only 15% or so of
         households based on the sample had incomes below £10,000, far lower than the
         corresponding UK figure (33%). The total proportion earning below the approximate
         national average household income of £22-23,000 in the Borough (around 39%) was
         also far below the UK average of around 64%. Some 47% of households in the
         Borough on the basis of the survey data had incomes above £30,000.

4.4.8    Cross-tabulation produced the following split of income levels of the whole household
         by Tenure for the main four tenure types.

         Table 4-26       Annual Household Income by Tenure
         (Question 16c by Q.1)
Tenure    Below    £5k-      £10k-   £15k-     £20k-    £25k-    £30k-     £35k-    £40k-      Above     Total
           £5k     £10k      £15k    £20k      £25k     £30k     £35k      £40k     £50k       £50k
 OO-M       0.6      2.7      4.0     7.7       8.9      11.5     10.8     11.5      16.0      26.3      100.0
 OO-O       5.5    18.1      17.4    12.9      10.4       8.3      4.4       4.3      5.7      13.0      100.0
 PR         7.9      9.7     11.1    13.5       5.7       7.5     10.7       5.0      7.8      21.1      100.0
HAR        20.2    33.8      17.2    12.1      10.3       3.6      0.7       2.0      0.0          0.1   100.0

         Tenure:- OO-M (Owner Occupier -with Mortgage), OO-O (Owner Occupier -Outright),
         PR (Privately Rented), HAR (Housing Association Rented).


                                               39                                                  DCA
                                                       Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001


4.4.9    The profiles were largely as would be expected as between owner-occupiers and renters,
         especially bearing in mind that a significant proportion of owner-occupiers without
         mortgage would be people with limited pension income. Housing Association rented
         sector incomes were concentrated (71%) below £15,000 per annum and were generally
         much lower than private rented sector incomes. The latter were more broadly spread
         across the income bands but some 29% were still below £15,000 per annum.

4.4.10   22% or so of households were in receipt of financial support (13,600 implied in total),
         a relatively low level in our experience where up to 30% has been common. The
         results from those responding to a multiple-choice question are set out in Table 4-27
         below. On average, each respondent indicated 1.8 forms of financial support.

         Table 4-27         Financial Support
         (Question 16d)
                                                Responses %       Households %         Nos implied
          Council Tax Benefit                         30.1               55.5              7,561
          Housing Benefit                             26.6               49.1              6,682
          Disability Allowance                        14.9               27.5              3,741
          Income Support                              14.7               27.2              3,698
          Working Family Tax Credit                    4.9                9.1              1,239
          Job Seekers Allowance                        1.3                2.5                336
          Other                                        7.5               13.7              1,869
          Total                                      100.0             184.6


4.5      Car Availability
4.5.1    Respondents were asked how many cars were available within the household. The
         results are set out in Table 4-28 below.

         Table 4-28         Car Availability
         (Question 15)
                                                                    Local Area          DCA HNS
                                                      %             Census 1991           1997
                                                                        %
          One                                         41.0               43.3               41.8
          Two                                         34.1               30.5               35.7
          Three or more                                7.9                7.1                 7.6
          None                                        17.0               19.1               14.9
          Total                                      100.0          119.91.0              2097.0

4.5.2    Our survey figures imply a minimum number of 76,600 cars in the Borough (Census
         1991: 68,200). However, the results suggested a higher number with no car than in 1997.


                                                40                                              DCA
                                                   Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001




4.6     Recent Movement of Existing Households
4.6.1   As part of the process of establishing some data on the movement of households,
        largely covered in Section 5 as it relates to future movement, we asked existing
        households which had moved in the last 5 years where they previously had lived and
        why they had moved. Some 38% (22,790 households implied) indicated that they had
        been involved in such a move. 63% had previously lived within the Borough.
        Table 4-29        Location of Previous Dwelling
        (Question 4b)
                                                   %            Nos implied
         Within Basingstoke & Deane               62.8            14,310
         Elsewhere in South East                  16.2             3,682
         Elsewhere in UK                           9.7             2,216
         Elsewhere in Hampshire                    8.9             2,029
         Outside UK                                2.4               549
         Total                                   100.0            22,786

4.6.2   This group of respondents was then asked what the most important reason was for
        moving home. 94% or so of the group gave a reason.
        Table 4-30        Reason for the Move
        (Question 4c)
                                                   %            Nos implied
         Move to a better home                    26.0             5,601
         More desirable area                       9.7             2,081
         Local employment                          9.1             1,963
         To be near relative                       8.9             1,920
         Wanted to buy                             8.4             1,808
         Size of family                            8.2             1,751
         Family breakdown                          6.8             1,465
         Health reasons                            6.5             1,396
         Easier to commute to work                 5.8             1,239
         New relationship                          5.3             1,131
         Move to a cheaper home                    3.5               744
         Education                                 1.8               379
         Total                                   100.0            21,478

4.6.3   A move to a better home was by some margin the main single choice, as is commonly
        found in our surveys. Only 9% cited local employment as a reason.



                                            41                                              DCA
                                                  Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001



5       FUTURE HOUSING REQUIREMENTS
5.1     Moving Households
5.1.1   Moving intentions and behaviour were tested in several sections of the questionnaire
        with an emphasis on future plans to move and also a more focused study on „new‟ and
        concealed households who represent an existing pent up demand for housing.
5.1.2   Respondents were asked to say whether they or any members of the household are
        currently seeking to move or will do so in the next three years. The result was that
        21.3% of all households responding (12,840 implied) planned a move. Breakdown by
        tenure is set out in Table 5-1 below. A further 6.8% (4,070 implied) indicated that
        they wished to move but were unable to do so.
5.1.3   The majority (71.9%) was not intending to move in this time scale, whether able or
        not to do so. The scale of movement implied, at an average of around 7.1% per
        annum, was higher than the results of other recent surveys carried out by DCA in
        which an average figure of 4-5% has emerged but in most cases relating to a 5 year
        period. This proportion would rise to 9.4% if all those wishing to move in the period
        were able to do so.
        Table 5-1     Percentage of Each Form of Tenure Intending to Move (All Movers)
        (Question 17a by Q.1)
         Tenure                              % of tenure         % of all
                                              moving             movers
         Owner occupier with mortgage            24.8              67.5
         Owner occupier no mortgage              15.7              20.0
         Private rented                          42.2               8.1
         Housing Association rented              15.7               2.8
         Shared ownership*                       11.3               0.4
         Tied to employment*                     21.1               1.2
         Total                                                    100.0

        (* Low volume of data).
5.1.4   The percentage of Housing Association rented tenants intending to move (around
        16%) was higher than the average for the social rented sector in our recent surveys
        (around 12%) but well below the all sector average of 21.3%.
5.1.5   Those indicating a wish to move but an inability so to do offered the following
        reasons for not being able to move. Respondents offered around 1.3 choices on
        average. However, the number of implied households responding was 6,120, not
        4,070 as indicated by the basic responses on moving referred to at 5.1.2 above. The
        difference probably lies in the fact that some respondents who see a difficulty to
        moving in the shorter-term answer this question even though they feel that they will
        be able to move within three years.



                                            42                                             DCA
                                                    Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001



5.1.6   It would seem clear from Table 5-2 below that cost was by far the most important
        factor.

        Table 5-2        Reasons Preventing a Move
        (Question 17d)

                                                           %               %                Nos
                                                       responses       households         implied
         Unable to afford move / buy home                 53.0             69.0            4,222
         No suitable property in desired location         16.4             21.4            1,309
         Family                                           11.3             14.7              900
         Do not qualify for Council / HA property          9.1             11.8              724
         Location of employment                            5.9              7.6              468
         Local education choices                           2.2              1.9              119
         Cannot sell home                                  1.5              3.0              183
         Current lease / rental agreement                  0.6              0.8               48
         Total                                           100.0           130.2

5.1.7   Out migration accounted for some 36% of all moves. A question was asked on the
        reasons for moving outside the Borough, the results of which are shown in Table 5-3.
        Responses were received from 4,280 implied households (around 92% of those
        indicating a move outside the Borough), each offering on average 1.5 choices.

        Table 5-3        Reason for Moving Out of the Borough
        (Question 17c)

                                                           %               %                Nos
                                                       responses       households         implied
         Employment                                       27.5             39.9            1,707
         Lack of affordable housing                       15.3             22.1              948
         Family                                           12.5             18.1              777
         Poor quality neighbourhood                       10.9             15.8              675
         Education                                        10.3             15.0              641
         Lack of suitable shops/leisure                    8.7             12.7              543
         Lack of high quality housing facilities           6.8              9.9              422
         Anti social behaviour/neighbour problems          4.1              5.9              254
         Safety/fear of crime                              3.9              5.6              241
         Total                                           100.0           145.0


                                              43                                             DCA
                                                   Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001


5.1.8   Employment was by some margin the main reason for leaving the Borough, as is
        usually found in DCA surveys. Lack of affordable housing was indicated by 22% of
        households responding - a high level in our survey experience but obviously more
        prevalent in surveys in the London / South East area.

        Table 5-4        Nature of Move by Tenure I
        (Question 17b by Q.1)
         Tenure             Total*     Existing     New      Existing      New               Total*
                                      households households households households
                          (individual                                                         (all
                                      within the within the outside the outside the
                          households)                                                        moves)
                                       Borough    Borough    Borough     Borough

         Owner occupied      7,284       2,297        2,608        1,792         1,033      15,014
         with mortgage                   (31.5)      (35.8)        (24.6)       (14.2)      (106.1)

         Owner occupied      2,546         856          608          738           427        5,175
         no mortgage                     (33.6)      (23.9)        (29.0)       (16.8)      (103.3)

         Private               984         502          109          352            32        1979
         rented                          (51.0)      (11.1)        (35.8)         (3.2)     (101.1)

         HA                  1,656       1,052          513          214             0        3,435
         rented                          (63.5)      (31.0)        (12.9)         (0.0)     (107.4)

         Shared                   33        33            0             0            0            66
         ownership*                     (100.0)        (0.0)        (0.0)         (0.0)       (100)

         Tied to               133         113            0            20            0          266
         employment*                     (85.0)        (0.0)       (15.0)         (0.0)       (100)
         Total              12,636       4,853        3,838        3,116         1,492      13,299
                                         (38.3)      (30.3)        (24.8)       (11.8)      (105.2)
        (* Low volume of data).
5.1.9   The total number of moves (13,299) implied, being the sum of the four types of move
        columns in Table 5-4 above, exceeds the number of households involved (12,636) at
        5.1.2 and the number of individual respondent households in Table 5-4 (12,840) above
        for the following reasons:-

           More than one type of move (i.e. existing household or new household inside /
            outside the Borough) within a respondent household was anticipated by a number
            of the households responding to the question on nature of move.

           The impact of factorisation (grossing up) on marginal differences in response
            levels between the general question on moving and the more detailed question on
            the nature of the move.

           9 raw data respondents indicating a basic intention to move did not give details of
            the nature of the move (i.e. the difference between 12,636 at Table 5-4 and 12,840
            in 5.1.2).



                                             44                                             DCA
                                                    Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001



5.1.10   From the same cross-tabulation above we derive the following breakdown by tenure
         type of moves within the Borough only.

         Table 5-5         Nature of Move by Tenure II

          Tenure                                     Existing              New
                                                    household            household
          Owner occupier with mortgage                 46.8                  53.2
          Owner occupier without mortgage              58.5                  41.5
          Private rented                               82.3                  17.8
          Housing Association rented                   67.2                  32.8
          Shared ownership*                           100.0                   0.0
          Tied to employment*                         100.0                   0.0

         (* Low volume of data).

5.1.11   Table 5-4 above indicates that there were some 4,850 existing households moving as a
         whole and 3,840 existing households containing new / concealed households moving
         within the Borough. However, in the various data tables (attached as appendices)
         relating to existing and new / concealed households moving the number of
         respondents varies marginally because not all respondents answered every question or
         because in a few cases respondents completing Section B and / or Section C of the
         questionnaire may not have filled in the nature of move question.

5.1.12   We have used 4,900 as a form of „control‟ total for existing households moving in the
         tables below in so far as they relate to questions addressed to the whole group (i.e.
         excluding cross-tabulations and questions relevant to only a part of the group). The
         percentages found in the detailed data tables have been applied to the control total to
         give implied numbers. The „control‟ total for new households moving is discussed
         separately at 5.3.1 below.

5.2      Housing Needs of Existing Households Moving Within the Borough
5.2.1    This section concentrates on our analysis of the findings in relation to the 4,900
         existing households moving within the Borough (i.e. excludes new / concealed
         households). They constituted some 56% of the total of existing households
         indicating a move of some kind within the Borough.

5.2.2    The total of 8,700 existing and new households moving within the Borough in the
         next three years was only two thirds of the level identified in the DCA Housing Needs
         Survey 1997 (12,900) looked at a 5 year period. No further comparisons are made for
         existing households moving with the 1997 survey because the survey was geared to all
         households and new households moving rather than existing households and new
         households moving.




                                              45                                             DCA
                                                  Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001



5.2.3   The first question to existing households moving related to the time when
        accommodation was required.

        Table 5-6         When is the Accommodation Required
        (Question 18)

         Time Accommodation Required                       %                 Nos implied

         Within three months                              13.9                    681

         Within l year                                    27.1                  1,328

         1 to 2 years                                     29.4                  1,441

         2 to 3 years                                     29.6                  1,450

         Total                                           100.0                  4,900

5.2.4   The table shows that 41% of these potential movers sought to do so within one year;
        some 69% within 2 years. Around 30% of the respondents indicated an intention to
        move in the longer term (i.e. 2-3 years from now).

        Table 5-7         Type of Accommodation Required
        (Question 19)

         Type                                              %                Nos Implied

         Detached house                                   42.6                  2,087

         Semi-detached house                              30.0                  1,470

         Bungalow - semi / detached                       11.0                    539

         Flat / Maisonette                                 7.5                    368

         Terraced house                                    7.3                    358

         Bungalow - terraced                               1.6                     78

         Bedsit                                            0.0                      0

         Mobile home                                       0.0                      0

         Total                                           100.0                  4,900

5.2.5   Table 5-7 indicates that around 43% or so of these respondents felt that they required
        detached houses - well above the average level in our experience for this group for
        which 25-35% would be around average in DCA surveys. 30% selected semi-
        detached houses. Interest in flats was low at under 8% but in DCA surveys interest in
        flats from existing households moving has typically been low (5 - 10%). In general,
        existing households moving leant towards non-terraced houses and bungalows which
        has often been evidenced in our surveys for this group.



                                            46                                             DCA
                                                         Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001


5.2.6    Around 66% of existing household moving respondents indicated that they required
         two or three bedroom accommodation.

         Table 5-8         Number of Bedrooms Required
         (Question 21)
            Bedrooms                                     %               Nos implied
            One                                              5.6                274
            Two                                         28.5                  1,397
            Three                                       37.6                  1,842
            Four                                        26.0                  1,274
            Five or more                                     2.3                113
            Total                                      100.0                  4,900

5.2.7    The requirement for one bedroom accommodation (under 6%) was lower than in other
         recent surveys carried out by DCA where 10% has been around the average.
         Requirement for four + bedroom properties amounted to some 28% in the Borough as
         a whole, both these issues reflecting the property type requirement profile referred to
         at 5.2.5 above.
5.2.8    We ran a cross-tabulation relating type of property required to size required in terms
         of bedrooms with the following results. (It might be noted again that in this, as in
         other cross-tabulations below, data is included only where the respondent has
         answered each element (question) involved, hence some small discrepancies with the
         tables from a single data source. Additionally, the numbers involved in each source
         are not linked directly to the control total for the group (4,900) referred to at 5.1.11
         above as in the case of the whole group single source totals).
         Table 5-9        Type Required by Size Required
         (Question 19 by Q.21)
 Type                  1-bed         2-bed               3-bed              4-bed           5 bed+       Total
                    %      Nos     %       Nos         %           Nos    %       Nos      %     Nos       Nos
 Semi-detached       0.0       0   37.1    534     55.9            806    7.0     100      0.0       0     1540
 Flat/maison.       37.5   124     62.5    207         0.0           0    0.0          0   0.0       0      431
 Terraced            0.0       0   31.9    112     56.3            197   11.8         41   0.0       0      450
 Detached            0.0       0    4.2      85    33.9            675   56.1    1,117     5.8   116     2,093
 Bungalow -s/d       0.8       4   69.0    365     30.2            160    0.0          0   0.0       0      629
 Bungalow -terr 52.0        41     48.0      38        0.0           0    0.0          0   0.0       0      179
 Total                     169            1,341                1,838             1,258           116     5,322

5.2.9    66% of bungalow demand was for 2-bed property as compared with around 4% of
         detached demand, of which some 62% favoured 4+-bed accommodation. 56% of semi-
         detached demand was for 3-bed accommodation; 37% for 2-bed. (NB: There was no
         demand for bedsit / room only or mobile home).


                                                  47                                                 DCA
                                                      Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001


5.2.10   Existing moving households were next asked if they were looking to rent or buy. The
         results are set out in Table 5-10.
         Table 5-10        Preferred Tenure of Existing Households Moving
         (Question 22)
          Tenure                                      %           Nos implied
          Owner occupation                           66.3           3,249
          Housing Association rented                 30.5           1,494
          Shared ownership                            2.3                113
          Private rented                              0.9                 44
          Tied to employment                          0.0                  0
          Total                                     100.0           4,900

5.2.11   Around 69% (3,360 implied) saw owner occupation including shared ownership as
         their priority. Some 30% of the group indicated a preference for Housing Association
         rented accommodation - slightly above the level found for Council rented
         accommodation in other DCA surveys in which a figure of 20% - 25% would be
         closer to the average. Interest in private rented accommodation was minimal.
5.2.12   We ran a cross-tabulation to compare type of property required with type of tenure
         preferred with the following results.
         Table 5-11       Type Required by Preferred Tenure
         (Question 19 by Q.22)
         Type                     HA                Private         Owner             Shared      Total
                                 Rented             Rented        Occupation         Ownership
                                %       Nos     %         Nos     %        Nos       %     Nos     Nos
         Semi-detached         31.8     442     0.0           0   62.9         873   5.3    73    1,488
         Flat/Maisonette       42.7     141     9.3         31    48.0         158   0.0     0     430
         Terraced              89.1     312     0.0           0   10.9          38   0.0     0     450
         Detached               5.0      96     0.7         14    93.9    1,784      0.4     8    2,002
         Bungalow -semi/det 40.5        197     0.0           0   53.2         259   6.3    31     587
         Bungalow -terraced 100.0        79     0.0           0    0.0           0   0.0     0     179
         Total                         1,267                45            3,112            112    5,136

5.2.13   Demand in the Housing Association rented sector was predominantly (60%) for semi-
         detached and terraced properties. Only 11% required flats / maisonettes. 57% of
         owner-occupation demand was for detached houses, 28% for semi-detached houses.
5.2.14   Some 30% (1,480 implied) were registered on a Housing Register - 82% indicating
         registration on the Basingstoke & Deane Borough Council list; 42% (620 implied) on
         a Housing Association list. (Around 28% indicated more than one list). Of those
         registered on the Basingstoke & Deane Borough Council list 74% (902) were already
         Housing Association tenants and 90% of those on the Housing Association Housing
         Register were already Housing Association tenants (562).

                                               48                                                DCA
                                                    Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001


5.2.15   Existing households moving were asked where accommodation was required. Up to
         two choices were permitted. On average each respondent offered around 1.3 choices.
         Table 5-12       Where Accommodation is Required
         (Question 23)
          Location                            %              %           Nos implied
                                          responses      households      (all choices)
          Basingstoke                       40.8            55.0            2,775
          Anywhere in the Borough           15.9            21.4            1,080
          In another village                 9.8            13.3              670
          Old Basing                         7.9            10.6              535
          In existing village                7.8            10.6              534
          Oakley                             5.0             6.8              341
          Tadley                             4.8             6.5              327
          Whitchurch                         3.1             4.2              210
          Overton                            2.8             3.7              188
          Kingsclere                         2.1             2.9              145
          Total                            100.0           135.0

5.2.16   Interest was overwhelmingly in Basingstoke itself with 55% of households responding
         indicating Basingstoke as one of their choices - 61% of all responses for a specific
         location. Around 16% were flexible on location anywhere in the Borough.

5.3      Housing Needs of New / Concealed Households Moving Within the
         Borough
5.3.1    In this section we look in detail at those people living in an existing household but
         described as a „new‟ household and which we take as a proxy for the extent of
         „concealment‟ of housing need in the Borough because these households represent a
         pent up and unmet demand. We found that 6.3% of all existing households in the
         Borough (3,840 as indicated at 5.1.11 above) contained such households, based on a
         three year projection, somewhat higher than the level evidenced in the majority of
         recent surveys carried out by DCA in which figures in the region of 4-5% were about
         average. In our 1997 survey, based on a five year period projection, the number of
         existing households with a new / concealed household was 4,340 or 7.5% of all
         existing households. In the case of new households moving, however the
         questionnaire in this survey allowed for up to three such households for any one
         existing household.
5.3.2    The 2001 survey data tables (attached as appendices) give marginally different
         response levels as discussed at 5.1.11 above. Various paragraphs in this section below
         refer to a „control‟ total of all such households of 4,550 being approximately 3,840 1st
         households; 670 2nd households and 40 3rd households. We also identify from Table
         5-17 onwards another „control‟ total of 1,400 which refers only to new households
         intending to move within one year.
5.3.3    The total figure of 4,550 new / concealed households was composed of 47% (2,150)
         single person (all) households; 53% (2,400) couple households. In the 1997 survey the
         proportion of single households involved was 68%.


                                              49                                             DCA
                                                   Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001


5.3.4   The vast majority (over 93%) of the total of 4,550 new households consisted of people
        described as „children‟ (16+) of the household as set out in Table 5-13 below, as
        compared with 87% in the 1997 survey (in which „children‟ were 18+).

        Table 5-13       Person Looking to Form New / Concealed Households
        (Question 26)
         Persons forming household                %             Nos implied
         Children 16 +                            93.5             4,254
         Lodger                                    1.0                 46
         Parent                                    3.1               141
         Grandparent                               0.8                 36
         Other                                     1.6                 73
         Total                                   100.0             4,550

5.3.5   The age question refers to individual household members. The number in Table 5-14
        below equates to that implied by the single / couples split at 5.3.3 above.
        Table 5-14      Age Structure of New / Concealed Households
        (Question 27b&c)
         Age                                      %             Nos implied
         16 - 24                                  59.5             4,126
         25 - 44                                  35.1             2,429
         45 - 64                                   4.1               281
         65 - 74                                   1.0                 68
         75 +                                      0.3                 24
         Total                                   100.0             6,928

5.3.6   Table 5-14 above suggests that 60% of concealment related to young adults (70% in
        the 1997 survey), an increase an „older‟ new forming households.

        Table 5-15       Number of Children
        (Question 27d)
         Children                                 %              Nos implied
         None                                     91.3             4,154
         One                                       4.9               223
         Two or more                               1.7                 77
         Child due                                 2.1                 96
         Total                                   100.0             4,550

5.3.7   The survey found that children (under the age of 16) were involved in less than 9% of
        these households, suggesting only 400 or so cases in total. The proportion in the 1997
        survey was 12%.

                                            50                                              DCA
                                                  Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001


5.3.8    We asked if the new / concealed household was being formed with a partner currently
         living in a separate household elsewhere in the Borough. Overall, 26% (1,120
         implied) indicated that this was the case.

         Table 5-16         When Accommodation is Required
         (Question 28)

          When required                     %        Nos implied
          Within three months               8.7           396
          Within one year                  22.2         1,010
          1 to 2 years                     27.2         1,238
          2 to 3 years                     41.9         1,906
          Total                           100.0         4,550

5.3.9    31% or so of the new household moving group required accommodation within one
         year; 58% within two years. Around 42% of the group saw their requirement as
         longer-term (2-3 years) - a higher proportion than for existing households moving
         (30%). In the 1997 survey, 45% indicated a move within one year.

         Table 5-17         Type of Accommodation Required
         (Question 29)

          Type                            All new households        New households moving
                                                moving                  within 1 year

                                            %        Nos implied         %         Nos implied

          Flat / maisonette                45.3         2,061           38.7            542

          Semi-detached                    27.1         1,233           31.0            434

          Terraced                         22.2         1,010           19.9            279

          Detached                          2.7           123             2.6             36

          Bungalow -semi / detached         1.3            61             4.6             64

          Mobile home                       0.7            30             2.2             31

          Bedsit / room only                0.4            19             0.0              0

          Bungalow -terraced                0.3            13             1.0             14

          Total                           100.0         4,550          100.0          1,400

5.3.10   The results from the survey showed a very different profile from existing households
         moving, as might be expected for a generally younger group. Around 45% required
         flats / maisonettes; 22% terraced houses. Aspiration to detached houses / bungalows
         was less than 5%. Those households who requested a mobile home were all current
         Housing Association tenants aged between 25-44.

                                             51                                            DCA
                                                             Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001


5.3.11   The demand for a higher proportion of smaller dwellings was also reflected in the
         number of bedrooms required as can be seen in Table 5-18.
         Table 5-18        Number of Bedrooms Required
         (Question 30)
          Bedrooms                 All new households                      New households moving
                                         moving                                within 1 year
                                        %            Nos implied               %               Nos implied
          One                         26.4                1,201               20.5                 287
          Two                         59.6                2,712               57.0                 798
          Three                       12.8                   582              21.1                 295
          Four or more                  1.2                     55               1.4                 20
          Total                    100.0                  4,550              100.0               1,400

5.3.12   We ran a cross-tabulation for all new households moving relating type of property
         required to size required in terms of bedrooms with the following results.
         Table 5-19       Type Required by Size Required
         (Question 29 by Q.31)
          Type                      1-bed                  2-bed              3-bed                4+-bed          Total
                                              os                      os                os                  os
                                  %         N            %           N       %         N         %        N         Nos
          Semi-detached           7.5         84         62.7        706    29.8       335        0.0         0    1,225
          Detached                0.0           0        45.9         51     7.2           8    46.9      52        211
          Terraced                5.7         57         78.6        773    15.7       154        0.0         0    1084
          Flat / maisonette      50.9 1,010              49.1        976     0.0           0      0.0         0    2,086
          Bungalow -semi / det    0.0           0         0.0            0 100.0        61        0.0         0     161
          Bungalow -terraced      0.0           0 100.0               13     0.0           0      0.0         0     113
          Mobile home             0.0           0 100.0               30     0.0           0      0.0         0     130
          Total                          1,151                   2,549                 558                52       5,010

5.3.13   51% or so of flatted accommodation demand was for 1-bed units; 49% for 2-bed.
         88% of all 1-bed demand was in the form of flats. 63% of semi-detached house
         demand and around 79% of terraced demand was for 2-bed property.
         Table 5-20        Preferred Tenure of New / Concealed Households
         (Question 32)
          Tenure                   All new households                      New households moving
                                         moving                                within 1 year
                                        %            Nos implied               %               Nos implied
          Owner occupation            45.5                2,070               34.6                 484
          HA rented                   36.6                1,666               48.4                 678
          Private rented              12.4                   564              14.1                 197
          Shared ownership              5.5                  250                 2.9                 41
          Total                    100.0                  4,550              100.0               1,400

                                                    52                                                            DCA
                                                          Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001



5.3.14   45% or so of all new households moving expressed preference for owner-occupation;
         45 - 55% has been around average in DCA surveys. Interest in Housing Association
         rented accommodation was relatively high at around 37%. Preference for Housing
         Association rented property was even higher (some 48%) amongst those indicating an
         intention to move within one year.

5.3.15   We ran a cross-tabulation for all new households moving to compare type of property
         required with form of tenure preferred with the following results.

         Table 5-21       Type Required by Preferred Tenure
         (Question 29 by Q.32)

          Type                       HA               Private           Owner           Shared        Total
                                     Rent              Rent           Occupation       Ownership

                                 %      Nos           %       Nos      %       Nos     %       Nos       Nos

          Semi-detached         28.5    335           5.0       59    54.9     646    11.6     136    1,276

          Detached               0.0         0        0.0        0    92.7     102      7.3       8      210

          Terraced              27.8    265       13.6        129     54.5     519      4.1      39   1,052

          Flat/maisonette       48.0    993       15.0        310     34.0     703      3.0      62   2,168

          Bungalow -semi/det    50.0        31        0.0        0    50.0      31      0.0       0      162

          Bungalow -terraced     0.0         0        0.0        0 100.0        13      0.0       0      113

          Bedsit/room only       0.0         0 100.0            19     0.0       0      0.0       0      119

          Total                        1,624                  517            2,014             245    5,100

5.3.16   61% of the interest in Housing Association rented accommodation was for flats.
         Interest in owner occupation was well spread across semi-detached, terraced and
         flats / maisonettes. 55% of interest in semi-detached and 55% of the interest in
         terraced property was for owner-occupation.

5.3.17   Some 22% of all new concealed / households moving (990 implied) were registered
         on a Housing Register, 93% (920 implied) being on the Basingstoke & Deane
         Borough Council list. (Only 3% offered more than one list). In the case of those
         moving within 1 year, around 41% (576 implied) were registered, all on the Council
         list.

5.3.18   New / concealed households were asked the same questions on location as existing
         households moving. The table below indicates all preferences for all households taken
         together and those for new households moving within one year. (Two choices
         offered). Respondents gave around 1.3 choices on average in both cases.




                                                 53                                                DCA
                                                        Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001



         Table 5-22       Choice of Location
         (Question 35)
         Location                 All new households moving               New households moving
                                                                              within 1 year
                                   %          %        Nos      %          %        Nos
                                responses households implied responses households implied
         Basingstoke               45.5        60.1         2,769        44.6           60.5           791
         Anywhere in Borough       17.9        23.5         1,083        12.3           16.7           219
         Oakley                     8.0        10.6           487         7.7           10.4           136
         Tadley                     7.9        10.4           480         8.9           12.0           157
         In existing village        5.5           7.2         334         5.4            7.3           95
         Overton                    4.0           5.3         245         5.6            7.6           99
         Old Basing                 3.2           4.3         197         6.2            8.4           110
         Whitchurch                 3.2           4.2         193         2.7            3.7           48
         In another village         2.5           3.3         152         3.7            5.0           65
         Kingsclere                 2.3           3.1         141         2.9            4.0           52
         Total                    100.0      132.0                      100.0          135.6

5.3.19   In both cases some 60% of households opted for Basingstoke itself as one of their
         choices. Otherwise, it was hard to determine any clear trend. The proportion of new
         households indicating „Anywhere in the Borough‟ was relatively low in our
         experience. New households moving tend to be more flexible on location than
         existing households moving but in this survey there was little difference.
5.3.20   A similar group of questions was posed as for existing households on cost of
         accommodation and household income beginning with the maximum weekly rent that
         those electing to rent might be able or prepared to pay.

         Table 5-23       Maximum Weekly Rent of ‘New / Concealed’ Households
         (Question 37a)
          Weekly / monthly rent              All new households               New households
                                                   moving                   moving within 1 year
                                                  %           Cum %              %         Cum %
         Below £50 pw / £215 pm                25.9             25.9            27.4            27.4
         £51 - £60 pw / £216 - £260 pm         29.0             54.9            26.8            54.2
         £61 - £70 pw / £261 - £300 pm         18.7             73.6            22.0            76.2
         £71 - £80 pw / £301 - £350 pm            9.0           82.6             6.4            82.6
         £81 - £100 pw / £351 - £430 pm           8.5           91.1             7.6            90.2
         £101 - £150 pw / £431 - £650 pm          6.2           97.3             3.4            93.6
         £151 - £200-pw / £651 - £865 pm          2.7          100.0             6.4           100.0
         £201 - £250 pw / £866 - £1,080 pm        0.0          100.0             0.0           100.0
         Above £251 pw / £1,080 pm                0.0          100.0             0.0           100.0


                                             54                                                    DCA
                                                     Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001



5.3.21   Responses were received from some 2,580 implied cases (around 57% of all new /
         concealed households). Of those, over 55% could afford a weekly rent of no more
         than £60; 74% or so no more than £70 (as compared with around 50% in the existing
         household profile). In the case of the movers within 1 year responses were received
         from 900 implied cases, around 65% of that group. The profile was much the same as
         for all new households moving.

         Table 5-24        Maximum Monthly Mortgage of ‘New / Concealed’ Households
         (Question 37b)

          Monthly rent                       All new households             New households
                                                   moving                 moving within 1 year

                                                 %          Cum %             %          Cum %

          Below   £200                        13.2            13.2            6.0           6.0

          £201 - £250                         12.0            25.2            6.6         12.6

          £251 - £300                         28.5            53.7          44.8          57.4

          £301 - £400                         23.3            77.0          17.2          74.6

          £401 - £500                         11.6            88.6          12.1          86.7

          £501 - £600                            6.4          95.0            2.4         89.1

          £601 - £750                            3.5          98.8          10.9         100.0

          £751 - £1,000                          0.0          98.8            0.0        100.0

          Above   £1,000                         1.5         100.0            0.0        100.0

5.3.22   For those seeking to buy a dwelling, 77% could not or would not pay a mortgage of
         more than £400 per month; 89% or so no more than £500. Again, the profile for new
         households moving within one year was much the same as that for the whole group.
         The mortgage bands selected might reflect to some degree perceptions of the actual
         cost of access to home ownership.

5.3.23   The „new / concealed‟ households were asked for a further information on their
         financial position via a question on annual income. These findings are presented in
         Table 5-25 below.




                                            55                                                DCA
                                                  Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001




         Table 5-25       Annual Income of ‘New / Concealed’ Households
         (Question 37c)
         Income                All new households moving          New households moving
                                                                      within 1 year
                                 %         Cum        Nos      %             Cum          Nos
                              responses     %       implied responses         %         implied
          Below £10,000        12.3        12.3       559        17.9         17.9         251
          £10,001 - £15,000    34.1        46.4     1,552        25.3         43.2         354
          £15,001 - £20,000    25.6        72.0     1,165        32.1         75.3         449
          £20,001 - £25,000    10.9        82.9       496         5.6         80.9           78
          £25,001 - £27,500      4.7       87.6       214         2.7         83.6           38
          £27,501 - £30,000      2.7       90.3       123         4.6         88.2           64
          £30,001 - £32,500      1.8       92.1        82         0.0         88.2            0
          £32,501 - £35,000      2.9       95.0       132         2.7         90.9           38
          £35,001 - £40,000      1.5       96.5        68         3.9         94.8           55
          £40,001 - £45,000      0.0       96.5         0         0.0         94.8            0
          £45,001 - £50,000      1.3       97.8        59         1.7         96.5           24
          Above £50,000          2.2      100.0       100         3.5       100.0            49
          Total                                     4,550                                1,400

5.3.24   The actual response level was around 86% of all new / concealed household
         respondents (well above our average level for this question of around 60%). The
         percentages derived have been applied to the figure of 4,550 being the approximate
         total number of all new households forming within the Borough. The proportion of
         new / concealed households with annual incomes at or above the approximate average
         UK annual household income of £22-23,000 was 23% or so as compared with 21% on
         average in recent DCA surveys. The proportion in the sub £10,000 per annum
         category (12%) was significantly lower than in other recent DCA surveys in which
         25-35% has been around the average range for new / concealed households. For the
         new households moving within one year the profile was much the same.

5.3.25 On the basis of a 91% response, only 8% (330 implied) of the potential new
       households would be likely to claim Housing Benefit. Over 20% has been common
       in our recent surveys. Of those moving within one year the level was 10% (140
       implied).




                                            56                                             DCA
                                                   Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001




6       SPECIAL HOUSING NEEDS

6.1     Needs of Disabled People
6.1.1   Issues relating to households with one or more member affected by a disability or
        long-term illness term were addressed through a series of questions. This section
        draws together the findings from these questions.

6.1.2   We found that some 17% of households in the area did contain somebody with a
        disability, suggesting some 10,160 households in the Borough were affected in some
        way. In our 1997 survey, the figure was under 10%.

6.1.3   Assessment of a UK average for the percentage of households affected is difficult
        both because of the impact of multiple disability and the tendency to express statistics
        in terms of population rather than household population. The Department of Social
        Security report of 1998 (based on a 1996 / 97 survey) suggested as many as 8.6
        million disabled adults in private households - around 14 - 15% of the population.

6.1.4   From cross-tabulation we established that the comparative figures for the various
        tenures were as per Table 6-1 below. The Housing Association rented figure was very
        high in relation to other forms of tenure (ignoring the few in the „other‟ category) and
        higher than that found in most DCA surveys, although it should be stressed that the
        Council figure data is commonly well above the all tenure average.

        Table 6-1        Incidence of Disability by Tenure
        (Question 9 by Q.1)

         Tenure                                       %            Nos implied

         Owner occupied with mortgage                 8.2             2,463

         Owner occupied without mortgage             20.5             3,353

         Private rented                              11.7               289

         Housing Association rented                  36.7             3,866

         Shared ownership*                           12.6                 37

         Tied to employment*                         14.8               104

         Other*                                      56.8                 52

        (* Low volume of data).

6.1.5   In around 83% of cases only one household member was involved; in 17% two
        members were involved. 58% of all disabled household members were over the age
        of 60; 22% under 45.




                                             57                                             DCA
                                                    Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001



6.1.6   The next table addresses the nature of the disability of members of the household.
        The results reflect the fact that more than one choice was offered, based respectively
        on 9,890 and 1,660 implied cases for 1st and 2nd members respectively.

        Table 6-2           Households with a Disabled Person
        (Question 10c)

         Disability                      1st Member                            2nd Member
                                  %          %            Nos            %          %            Nos
                               responses households     implied       responses households     implied
                                                      (all choices)                          (all choices)

         Walking
                                  34.2      48.5         4,801          26.7       31.6          523
         difficulty
         Asthmatic/respira-
                                  15.2      21.5         2,128          25.3       29.9          496
         tory problem
         Visual / hearing
                                  12.6      18.0         1,777           9.7       11.4          190
         impairment
         Wheelchair user           7.1      10.1           995           4.4        5.2           86
         Mental health
                                   6.6        9.3          920           5.5        6.4          107
         problem
         Learning
                                   3.5        5.0          493           8.9       10.5          174
         difficulty
         Other disability         20.8      29.5         2,923          19.5       23.0          382

         Total                   100.0     141.9                       100.0      118.0

6.1.7   The largest group affected by a named disability was those with a walking difficulty
        of some kind, affecting around 8% of all households in the Borough. Just over 10% of
        households with a disabled person contained someone who was a wheelchair user,
        suggesting around 1,000 in the Borough as a whole. Of the 2nd members with a
        disability, 90 or so were also wheelchair users. Some 22% indicated that they were
        affected by respiratory problems but over 29% indicated the „other physical disability‟
        category.

6.1.8   We ran a cross-tabulation to see if the houses which had been adapted for a
        wheelchair were indeed the dwellings where people using a wheelchair lived and
        found this to apply in only 19% or so of cases (212 of the 1,123 at Table 6-5 below),
        suggesting a mismatch between houses adapted and those where wheelchair users live.
        By extension, it would appear that 783 wheelchair user households (79%) did not live
        in suitably adapted premises (viz. 995 in Table 6-2 above less 212). Of those 212
        households who lived in adapted dwellings 61% were from the owner-occupied sector
        and 39% from Housing Association rented sector.

6.1.9   Only 34% of households indicating a member with a disability also indicated a need
        for care / support. Of those, 66% were receiving sufficient care / support.


                                             58                                               DCA
                                                       Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001



6.1.10   Two questions sought information of the degree to which the home had been built or
         adapted to meet the needs of disabled persons.

         Table 6-3         Adaptations for the Disabled
         (Question 11a)

          Adaptations                                 %             Nos implied

          Adapted                                      9.6              5,792

          Not adapted                                 90.4             54,529

          Total                                      100.0             60,321

6.1.11   As can be seen from the above, around 10% of properties had been so adapted.
         Recent DCA surveys suggest an average of only 7%. Our survey in 1997 suggested
         only 4%.

6.1.12   The split by tenure is set out in the next table below.

         Table 6-4        Adaptations by Tenure
         (Question 11a by Q.1)

          Tenure                                      %             Nos implied

          Owner occupied with mortgage                 3.8              1,135

          Owner occupied no mortgage                   9.5              1,546

          Private rented                               4.8                118

          Housing Association rented                  27.1              2,850

          HA shared ownership*                        13.6                 39

          Tied to employment*                          7.4                 52

         (* Low volume of data).

6.1.13   Adaptation in the Housing Association rented sector was, as might be expected,
         considerably higher (around 27%) than e.g. in the mortgage paying owner occupied
         sector where adaptation levels were very low (under 4%). Adaptation in the owner
         occupied no mortgage sector was only at the average for the Borough, even though a
         higher proportion of elderly persons tends to be within that sector.

6.1.14   6,039 implied households actually responded to the question on which adaptations had
         been provided. The following adaptations were identified based on responses to a
         multiple-choice question, respondents making around 2.2 choices on average.




                                                59                                              DCA
                                                       Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001


         Table 6-5           Types of Adaptations Provided
         (Question 11b)
          Adaptations                              %                   %              Nos implied
                                               responses           households         (all choices)
          Handrails / grabrails                      22.4              49.9              3,015
          Bathroom adaptations                       19.4              43.1              2,606
          Access to property                         18.2              40.4              2,439
          Ground floor toilet                        17.0              37.8              2,285
          Wheelchair adaptations                      8.4              18.6              1,123
          Stairlift / Vertical lift                   7.7              17.2              1,037
          Extension                                   2.2                4.9               297
          Other                                       4.7              10.5                633
          Total                                     100.0             222.4

6.1.15   Some 19% of these households had had wheelchair adaptations carried out -
         significantly higher than the average in DCA surveys (9-10%) which appears to
         suggest that many adapted homes are no longer occupied by a disabled person in the
         light of the comments at 6.1.8 above. Around 50% had had handrails / grabrails
         adaptations; 43% bathroom adaptations, the most commonly chosen items in DCA
         surveys, but in the Borough ground floor toilets (38%) and improved access to
         property (40%) also featured prominently.

6.1.16   Only 4,790 implied households responded to a further question on what facilities still
         needed to be provided to meet the needs of a current member of the household.
         Respondents made around 1.4 choices on average.

         Table 6-6           Types of Adaptations Required for Current Member
         (Question 12a)
          Adaptations                              %                   %              Nos implied
                                               responses           households         (all choices)
          Bathroom adaptations                       29.1              41.2              1,973
          Ground floor toilet                        14.9              21.1              1,012
          Handrails / grabrails                      14.4              20.4                979
          Stairlift / Vertical lift                  11.6              16.4                785
          Access to property                          9.6              13.6                654
          Extension                                   6.4                9.0               433
          Wheelchair adaptations                      5.6                8.0               382
          Other                                       8.4              11.9                572
          Total                                     100.0             141.6



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6.1.17 Handrails / grabrails adaptations, greater access to property and ground floor toilets
       featured less prominently, presumably reflecting levels of work completed as
       indicated in Table 6-5 above. However, demand for bathroom adaptation remained
       high as a proportion and in implied numbers, even though considerable adaptation
       work appears to have been carried out in that area. The apparent demand for
       wheelchair adaptation would appear very low if the comments at 6.1.8 above are
       taken into account but would appear compatible with the comment at 6.1.15 about
       the level of wheelchair adaptations completed in comparison with other DCA
       surveys.

6.1.18   Of the 79% replying to a question on awareness of Local Authority grants for aids,
         adaptations and home improvements, only 33% of respondents indicated that they
         were aware of such grants.


6.2      Supported Accommodation and Housing For Older People

6.2.1    Some 22% of existing households moving (1,070 implied) indicated an interest in
         supported accommodation. Of those, only 21% (227 implied) gave Housing
         Association sheltered housing with warden support accommodation as a requirement.
         Over 48% (520 implied) opted for independent accommodation with external support.

         Table 6-7       Type of Supported Accommodation
         (Question 20)

          Type                                                          %              Nos
                                                                                     implied

          Independent accommodation with external support             48.5             521

          HA sheltered with warden support                            21.1             227

          Private sheltered with warden support                       19.2             206

          Hostel / group home                                           6.7              72

          Residential housing home                                      4.6              49

          Independent accommodation live-in carer                       2.9              31

6.2.2    In addition to elderly housing needs from the existing population, some 8% of
         existing households (4,720 implied) indicted that they had elderly relatives who
         would need to move to the Borough in the next three years. 93% of those responded
         to a further multiple choice question on the type of accommodation required (4,371
         implied).




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        Table 6-8           Accommodation Required by Elderly Relatives in Next 3 Years
        (Question 13b)

         Adaptations                              %                 %              Nos implied
                                              responses         households         (all choices)
         Private housing
                                                   23.7              29.2             1,275
         (warden assisted)
         Housing Association
                                                   22.7              27.9             1,219
         (warden assisted)
         Residential care                          14.5              17.8               779
         Live with respondent
                                                   13.4              16.5               721
         (need extension / annexe)
         Housing Association
                                                   11.4              14.0               613
         (not warden assisted)
         Private housing
                                                   10.1              12.4               540
         (not warden assisted)
         Live with respondent
                                                    4.2               5.2               226
         (existing home adequate)
         Total                                    100.0             123.0

6.2.3   Some 42% of households indicated Housing Association accommodation as one of
        their options.




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7       POPULATION GROWTH AND HOUSEHOLD
        FORMATION PROJECTIONS
7.1     Introduction
7.1.1   In this section of the report we provide a short background commentary to the
        demographic element in housing demand in the Borough. The purpose is twofold.
        First, to provide a context in which the results of the postal questionnaire can be
        interpreted. Secondly, to give a more specific focus on the demand for affordable
        housing provision and to make projections for five and ten year periods.

7.1.2   Modelling housing needs is a very complex procedure and it is only very recently that
        attempts have been made to model local housing needs. Most of the established
        procedures are aimed at the provision of national level estimates of housing need,
        including:-

           simple estimates such as those provided by the DETR, which measured the crude
            dwelling to household surplus (and concluded no additional building was
            necessary to meet need);

           a second approach by the Audit Commission measured household growth minus
            expected private sector output;

           Glen Bramley‟s work focused on local supply and demand to calculate for a
            particular point in time the proportion of new households unable to buy in the
            market (minus social sector re-lets);

           Steve Wilcox described a „Net Stock‟ approach which calculates net household
            increase and adds a factor for concealed households before deducting new private
            sector output to arrive at estimates of need in the social sector.

7.1.3   Kleinman and Whitehead have devised a so called „Gross Flows‟ approach which
        looks at gross household formation, tenure choice, demand from in-migrants and
        deducts these from new social output and re-lets to yield a measure of social housing
        requirements.

7.1.4   How these national models translate to the local level is not at all clear. Kleinman and
        Whitehead have attempted a „Gross Flows‟ analysis for Cambridge but relied entirely
        on secondary data for their estimates. This is a problem in the model particularly for
        the incorporation of measures of concealed households and factors relating to
        affordability are not considered directly but by modelling the tenure propensities of
        new households.

7.1.5   Our method emphasises the affordability issue and gives much greater weight to the
        issue of concealment of households than most of the „national‟ level studies.

7.1.6   The affordability measure is derived from primary data collected in the household
        survey, from access to local house prices, and the concealment issue is also addressed
        through the survey findings.


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7.1.7   However, without a major study of local housing market conditions it is simply not
        possible to say with entire certainty the extent to which the local market caters for
        households at different levels of income; for example, where there are more
        households who can afford the median house price than the available supply of that
        type of house.

7.2     Demographic Analysis
7.2.1   There are four basic components to changes in the number and composition of
        households. The aim of this section of the report is to highlight the issues, which are
        relevant to the evaluation of housing needs in the Borough particularly the changes in:-

           the age distribution of the population arising from births, deaths and ageing of the
            indigenous population;

           family units such as marriage, divorce and child bearing patterns;

           the number and composition of households arising from migration, particularly
            due to employment opportunities in the area;

           the probabilities that family units form a separate household, particularly in
            response to changes in incomes in the labour market area.

7.2.2   In local area forecasting new household formation is mainly due to responses to
        income and employment opportunities. New household formation is also affected by
        life cycle patterns. This purely demographic influence on the number of households
        contributes to about 40% of the growth in the number of new households at any one
        time (Dicks, 1988; Ermisch, 1985).

7.2.3   The long term Population Projections in the tables in this section follow the DETR
        household formation rates (1996 based). The data has been provided by Hampshire
        County Council Planning Department.

7.2.4   The Long-Term Population Projections are based on a set of assumptions which
        accord as closely as possible to the latest Government projections of household
        formation rates applied to the latest national population forecasts.

7.2.5   The distribution and phasing of development acceptable to the Government is
        indicated in Regional Planning guidance and in approved structure and unitary
        development plans.

7.2.6   Thus, the Long-Term Population Projections produced by the County Planning
        Department incorporate the most recent DETR household formation rates (expressed
        as age, sex, marital status specific household representative rates), and the adopted
        County Structure Plan dwellings proposals, phased broadly evenly over the plan
        period but taking account of relevant local factors.

7.2.7   The household formation rates determine the likely number of households which will
        be formed from the resident population, and thus the demand for dwellings. The
        difference between the supply of dwellings, as given by the structure plan proposals,
        and the demand indicates the number of dwellings available for in-migrants and
        ultimately the level of net migration.

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7.2.8   Hampshire County Council would recommend that these should be used bearing in
        mind that they are likely to define the lower end of the range of possible outcomes.
7.2.9   Difference between the forecasts and the projections should be largely confined to
        differences in the scale of population growth. We would not expect substantial
        differences in age distributions.

7.3     Population Projections
7.3.1   The projections in Table 7-1 are based on County predictions (1996 based). These
        figures are based on the assumptions regarding mortality, fertility and migration etc,
        and are contained in population and household projections for the Borough for the
        period 1996-2011, prepared by Hampshire County Council using the baseline scenario
        from the Structure Plan Review.

        Table 7-1        Projected Population Change in the Borough, 1996 - 2011
                         Mid Year        2001         2006         2011        Change
                          1996
         Total
                          151,593      158,563      161,363      164,850
         Population
         Change                         +6,970       +2,800        +3,487      +13,257
         % Change                          +4.6         +1.8         +2.2          +8.7

7.3.2   The table shows a rise in the population of the Borough of about 13,257 over the
        forecast period.

7.4     Age Structure Forecast 1996 - 2011
7.4.1   The next stage in the forecast is to disaggregate the population and household data
        into age bands because there may be changes in the population structure with
        significant housing implications.

        Table 7-2        Population Age Band Forecast, the Borough, 1996 - 2011
         Age Bands          1996         2001         2006         2011        Change
         (Years)
         0 - 19             39,979       40,720      40,477        39,678          -301
         20 -29             21,411       21,706      20,940        22,213          +802
         30 - 44            36,158       37,609      37,322        34,825        -1,333
         45 - 64            35,463       38,968      41,964        44,864        +9,401
         65+                18,582       19,560      20,660        23,270        +4,688
         Total
                          151,593      158,563      161,363      164,850
         Population
         Change                         +6,970       +2,800        +3,487      +13,257
         % Change                          +4.6         +1.8         +2.2          +8.7

        NB. Percentage change is measured between 5-year bands, not the base population.
            This is a better representation of the incremental change.

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7.4.2   As we show above there will be a rise in the population of the Borough of about 8.7%
        over the forecast period according to the model. There is projected to be around
        13,257 more people in the Borough in 2011 than in 1996.

7.4.3   Currently there is a growth of population in the 45-64 and the over 65 age groups, so
        that between 1996 and 2011 they increase by 14,089 people, 26.5% and 25.2%
        respectively.

7.4.4   The other significant feature here is the small decline in ages in the 20-29 age group
        between 2001 and 2006. On balance the Borough continues to be an ageing
        population. Indeed the detailed figures in Table 7-3 show that the number in the 80+
        age group increases by 1,314 people, 29.4% between 1996 and 2011. Given the
        resource demands often associated with very elderly people, these are significant
        figures.

        Table 7-3        Numbers of 80+ in the Borough, 1996-2001

         Numbers              Mid Year       2001           2006          2011        Change
                               1996

         80 +                   4,475        4,896          5,338         5,789

         Change                               +421          +442          +451        +1,314

         % Change                             +9.4           +9.0          +8.5         +29.4


7.5     Forecast Change in Households 1996-2011
7.5.1   Table 7-4 outlines the household formation forecasts for the Borough in 15-year
        period from 1996 to 2011. It is based on the statistics provided by Hampshire County
        Council, and we consider it the best available forecast on currently available data of
        household change in the Borough.

        Table 7-4        Forecast Change in Households in the Borough 1996-2011

                                 1996        2001           2006          2011        Change
                                                                                     1996-2011

                                57,607       62,486        65,996        69,370

         Change                              +4,879        +3,510        +3,374       +11,763

         % Change                                 +8.5        +5.6          +5.1         +20.4

7.5.2   There have been significant changes in household formation over the last decade
        which result in much higher household numbers compared to population growth, with
        lowering average household size. There is a large increase in single person households
        through elderly people living longer, separation and divorce and young people
        forming single person households.



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7.6   Summary
         The population is forecast to increase by 13,257 people, 8.7% over the period to
          2011.

       However, this population increase will not occur uniformly throughout all age
        ranges. The net increase is concentrated entirely within the population aged 45 and
        over, which is expected to increase by more than 25% over the fifteen years 1996-
        2011. The profile of the local population is thus changing significantly.

       The 20-29 age group is forecast to grow by only about 800 people between 1996
        and 2011. This age range covers the main household forming group and will have
        implications for future affordable and market housing need both in the short and
        longer term.

       The 30-44 age group declines by 1,300 people over the period 1996-2011. This
        age range covers the main house-moving and economically active group.

       Both the 45-retirement age group and the “younger” retired group (those under 80)
        are projected to increase by more than 25% between 1996 and 2011.

       The "older" retirement group, those aged 80 and over grows by more than 29%
        from 1996, by over 1,300 elderly people to approximately 5,800 people by 2011.
        This group is much more likely to have care and support needs which should now
        be assessed in detail.




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8       NEEDS ASSESSMENT MODEL, PLANNING &
        DELIVERY
8.1     Affordable Housing Needs Requirement
8.1.1   In this section, we calculate the overall affordable housing needs requirement, so that
        the Council can assess the level for target setting for negotiations for new residential
        planning consents. The need requirement calculation is structured to take account of
        the key demand sources, the Housing Register, homeless and concealed households
        and those emanating from future demographic change.
8.1.2   Each category has been adjusted to ensure that proper account is taken of households
        who can access market rent or owner occupation without assistance (income
        >£25,000) and to eliminate any double counting between categories (those on a
        Housing Register and those forming a two-person household).
8.1.3   This section assesses the overall scale of need and supply of affordable housing in the
        Borough, calculated on an annual flow of need and supply in accordance with
        Guidance.

8.1.4   DEMAND

D1      The Backlog of existing housing need is that registered on the Housing Register.

        times a quota to convert it into an annual flow and to eliminate it over a 5 year period.

D2      New need arising annually:-

D2.1    Concealed / New forming households identified in the 2001 HNS adjusted to
        eliminate double counting:-

D2.2    Concealed households identified in the survey, annualised at the level of those
        forming in the first year.

D2.3    Those already recorded on the Housing Register.

D2.5    Two person household formation (see Para 5.3.12) and those with incomes adequate
        to access the housing market (depending on location). (See Para. 5.3.22)

D2.6    The total net affordable is the number of units required over a five-year period.

D3      The change in the Housing Register position from new registrations, re-instatements
        and cancellations.

D4      The total affordable need each year.

8.1.5   SUPPLY

S1      Existing Social stock relets from RSL‟s (net of transfers). New Programme (average
        of 3 years 1999 – 2001).
8.1.6   DS    The net annual affordable stock shortfall.


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8.1.7    Affordable Housing Assessment
D1       Backlog of Need (existing households)

         Housing Register in need at 1/4/2001                    4,034
         Quota to reduce over 5 years to 2006 = 20%
         Annual need to reduce backlog =                                           807

D2       New Need

D2.2     Concealed Households per annum                          1,406

D2.3     less on Housing Register (22%)                            309
                                                                 1,097
D2.4     less two person formation (26% x 0.5)                     143
                                                                   954
D2.5     less household income > £25k (19%)                        181
                                                                   773             773

D3       Housing Register Annual Change 1999 - 2000

         New Registrations                                       2,344
         Less Cancelled registrations                            2,150
         Annual change excluding relets                                            194



D4       Total Affordable Need per annum                                         1,774

S1       Affordable Supply

         Social relets average per annum                           704
         New Programme Delivery                                    210
                                                                   914             914

DS1      Net Annual Shortfall                                                      860

        Notes

1.       *The Housing Register Annual Flow shows a consistent pattern over the last two
         years with an average increase of 450 households, after allowing for re-lets.

         Position at 1/4/98       2,678
         Position at 1/4/99       3,045       (+367)
         Position at 1/4/00       3,064       (+19)
         Position at 1/4/01       4,034       (+970)

2.       These figures do not take into account 948 households planning to leave the area
         because of a lack of affordable housing by 2006.



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8.2     Concealed Households and Housing Need
8.2.1   This section now examines the findings of our Survey in terms of concealed
        households, which are not included in our projections based on secondary data. The
        survey asked specifically where the accommodation was required and about 3,790
        respondents intended to move out of the Borough. It should be noted that 948 of those
        leaving the area are doing so because of the lack of affordable housing. In quantifying
        total need, these households could be incorporated in the demand figures, although we
        have not done so.

8.2.2   Key issues for the concealed households who wish to remain in the Borough are that:-
           There is a strong demand from 45.3% of households for flats / bedsits, reflecting
            the predominance of single people or childless couples in current and future new
            formation.
           86% of households would prefer small units with one or two bedrooms.
           46% of households would prefer owner-occupation. 6% are looking for shared
            ownership.
           37% of households want affordable rented accommodation and there is a
            significant interest from 12% in private renting reflecting changed attitudes to
            initial tenure from rent households.
           The locational preferences of both existing and new forming households follows a
            similar pattern. Of specific areas the order of preferences in Basingstoke &
            Deane were:-

            1. Basingstoke     2. Oakley        3. Tadley     4. Overton      5. Old Basing
            6. Whitchurch      7. Kingsclere.

8.2.3   The Survey reveals that the predominant category, 93% of concealed households are
        young people wishing to set up their own household who are the children of
        Basingstoke & Deane residents. However, not all concealed households represent a
        household in need of subsidised affordable housing.

8.3     Concealed Households’ Access to the Market
8.3.1   The key issue is whether the concealed households identified in the postal survey have
        incomes, which might provide access to the local housing market. If there is a
        problem it can be supposed that there is a demand for affordable rented housing. The
        data collected in the postal survey provides a good picture of the general income
        levels of the concealed households and we now use that information in the context of
        the Land Registry data.

8.3.2   As can be seen from Table 8-1 below, 83% of the concealed households had incomes
        under £25,000, the average of the sales of flats (the lowest part of the market, where
        there is any substantial volume of sales taking place). On the face of it, very few of
        these people will be able to enter the local market without gaining access to a
        significant amount of capital (which is unlikely to occur).


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8.3.3   These households exist in addition to the demand for new housing generated by
        demographic and net migration factors and are significant because they are by
        definition candidates for „non-market‟ accommodation or low cost housing with an
        element of subsidy support such as the Homebuy initiative.

8.3.4   Some of the households in the £25,000 - £35,000 income band may be able to
        purchase cheaper flats and terraces in some areas but some of them will be at the
        margin if we compare with the first-time purchaser income levels and the nature of
        their employment will be a factor in acquiring a mortgage.

        Table 8-1        Annual Income of ‘New / Concealed’ Households
        Income                     All new households        New households moving
                                         moving                   within 1 year
                                                      os
                                 %        Cum       N        %        Cum         Nos
                              responses    %      implied responses    %        implied
         Below £10,000          12.3       12.3       559         17.9        17.9         251
         £10,001 - £15,000      34.1       46.4     1,552         25.3        43.2         354
         £15,001 - £20,000      25.6       72.0     1,165         32.1        75.3         449
         £20,001 - £25,000      10.9       82.9       496          5.6        80.9          78
         £25,001 - £27,500       4.7       87.6       214          2.7        83.6          38
         £27,501 - £30,000       2.7       90.3       123          4.6        88.2          64
         £30,001 - £32,500       1.8       92.1         82         0.0        88.2           0
         £32,501 - £35,000       2.9       95.0       132          2.7        90.9          38
         £35,001 - £40,000       1.5       96.5         68         3.9        94.8          55
         £40,001 - £45,000       0.0       96.5          0         0.0        94.8           0
         £45,001 - £50,000       1.3       97.8         59         1.7        96.5          24
         Above £50,000           2.2     100.0        100          3.5      100.0           49
         Total                                      4,550                                1,400
        Source: DCA Survey.
8.3.5   First-time buyers need to have a deposit and are likely to be restricted to a maximum
        mortgage of three time‟s annual income plus the annual income of the lower second
        income, if appropriate.
8.3.6   A household with an income of, say, about £25,000 would be able to achieve a
        maximum mortgage of around £75,000. Assuming capital was available to meet the
        deposit and costs, the property range of such a buyer is limited to prices up to a
        maximum of £80,000.
8.3.7   The average price paid by buyers in the Borough in the period was £142,005 with just
        over a third of all sales generated from terraced housing.
8.3.8   People with incomes below £25,000, 83% of these „new‟ households, probably could
        not afford to buy above the £80,000 - £90,000 range.


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8.3.9   Access to the market is clearly dependent on availability, a factor which is particularly
        critical for low-income households, who can only enter the market in any numbers
        where there is an adequate supply of affordable dwellings.

8.4     Land and Affordable Housing Delivery
8.4.1   Land supply is crucial to the provision of housing. Land available at a discount is
        often the key to making a social housing scheme viable, particularly given the limited
        funding available and the Housing Corporation‟s emphasis on value for money.
        Therefore, local authority housing and planning strategies need to ascertain the
        availability of sites and propose ways of bringing sites forward.
8.4.2   The Housing Corporation is more likely to allocate funding for schemes developed on
        sites acquired at discounted value in its quest for value for money. The inter-
        relationship of the land and subsidy issues is important in the negotiation process
        provided for within planning guidance on affordable housing, even for authorities,
        which are free of debt.
8.4.3   Private Landowners / Developers
        It is clear from the scale of affordable need identified in the survey that the Council
        will need to negotiate with private landowners and developers to be able to deliver the
        scale of housing required.
8.4.4   The economics of the scale of support, which can be provided by the land itself and
        the need for available grant resources, are also major factors determining target levels.
        It is extremely difficult to achieve high affordable housing ratios from small, infill
        sites and generally, larger sites are needed to provide free or discounted land of any
        meaningful scale.
8.4.5   Whilst the survey data provides identified demand levels in each strategic housing
        area, the Council must apply its own judgement as to the suitability of sites for
        affordable housing for low income families, particularly related to the nature of the
        area and provision of services, and other planning requirements.

8.5     Planning Policies for Affordable Housing
8.5.1   Planning Policy Guidance Note 3 on Housing gives the planning system a role in
        affordable housing provision in urban areas, recognised in Policy H10 of the Local
        Plan. The Local Authority has identified a need for 3,000 affordable houses to built
        within the Plan period 1991 – 2001 and it is a material consideration in determining
        applications at or above the site thresholds as recommended in Circular 6/98.
8.5.2   Provision of affordable housing in rural areas is more complex to deliver and longer
        term control of access is a key issue. This is recognised in Policy H12 in relation to
        exception sites.
8.5.3   The Council recognises that the basis of the agreed affordable housing, and any other
        provisions are clearly drafted into a Section 106 Agreement so that delivery can be
        controlled and guaranteed.




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8.6     Affordable Housing
8.6.1   Circular 6/98 emphasises the need for local authorities to provide a local definition of
        affordable housing. A basis for a definition of affordable housing, which would assist
        within the context of the Local Plan, is discussed in section 8.6.3 below.

8.6.2   The term affordable has gradually come to replace “social” in every day usage. It is
        interesting to note that affordable housing is defined by the DETR as “the range of
        both subsidised and market housing designed for those whose incomes generally deny
        them the opportunity to purchase houses on the open market as a result of the local
        relationship between income and market price”. This bears a close resemblance to our
        definition below.

8.6.3   The Council needs to define affordable housing in setting future planning policy and
        we would suggest that as simple a definition as possible be provided. We have
        attempted to provide policy text, which identifies the requirement but leaves the
        percentage to be achieved as an issue for negotiation on a site by site basis. Our
        definition is:-

          “Affordable housing is that provided, with subsidy, for people who are unable
          to resolve their housing needs in the local private sector market because of the
          relationship between housing costs and incomes”.

8.6.4   The types of affordable housing which comply with our definition are as follows:-

          „Units for rent (the main group), shared ownership with grant or shared
          equity where land value is retained to provide housing for sale at below
          market levels and where control of the „equity discount‟ can be retained in
          perpetuity‟.

8.6.5   The policy guidance gives the Council the power to negotiate with developers on all
        new permissions, subject to the ability to provide defensible data to justify need
        following a rigorous assessment and the suitability of individual sites for affordable
        housing. In the light of the findings of the number of concealed households revealed
        by the 2001 Survey, the provision of affordable units on all suitable development sites
        above the threshold of 25 or 1 hectare, as set out in Circular 6/98 should be sought.

8.6.6   We have no issues to raise regarding Policy H10, but are including the following
        policy suggestion purely to reflect our thinking:-

          “Planning permission will only be granted for residential development
          which provides affordable housing to meet local needs, the scale of which
          will be negotiated on a site by site basis after taking into account site
          conditions and the economics of provision.”
8.6.7   Perpetuity
        To ensure the delivery and long term occupation of subsidised affordable housing, it
        will be necessary for a specialist organisation such as a RSL to be involved in the
        ownership and management of the dwellings to be provided. These arrangements
        would be formalised within a legal agreement to ensure that provision meets with the
        Council‟s affordability criteria.


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8.7     Low Cost Market Housing
8.7.1   We disagree with some aspects of the recent Guidance Note 6/98 particularly
        regarding low cost market housing. We do not accept that “low cost market housing”,
        provided without subsidy, satisfies DETR‟s own definition of affordable housing and
        have always questioned the illogicality of the Guidance definition, particularly in
        areas with high house prices relative to local income levels.

8.7.2   Low cost market housing is taken to relate to small units which are provided without
        subsidy to meet the needs of households with income levels just adequate to access the
        housing market. Access prices should relate to the local average of terraced houses or
        flats subject to local supply levels. Low cost market housing can on occasion be
        provided with subsidy and if this is the case it would be incorporated within our
        definition and target for affordable housing.

8.7.3   Affordable housing should include subsidised units only, whether for rent or sale, but
        there is also an additional need for the provision of 200 unsubsidised low cost market
        housing units to address the requirements of households earning in excess of £30,000
        p.a. and able to access the market for new units.

8.8     Special Needs Housing
8.8.1   There will be future provision requirements to address the changing needs from “Care
        in the Community” policies, but at this stage we believe that these are likely to be
        specific small developments and the Local Plan Policy H13 addresses the requirement
        for special needs and access for alterations and extensions, although not new build
        housing.

8.8.2   The nature of planning policies to address special needs requirement relate principally
        to mobility housing. The issue of percentages does not apply in this area. A small
        proportion of residents who are wheelchair users would require the provision of
        housing built to standards to accommodate internal wheelchair use. Additionally the
        economics of accessible standards are marginal in new build compared to the cost of
        future adaptation.

8.8.3   Whilst the numbers identified in the survey are small it is clear that there is always
        likely to be a mismatch between adapted property and wheelchair occupants and that
        there is a need to provide an excess of adapted dwellings over wheelchair user
        households. It is not possible to be precise regarding the percentages of mobility and
        wheelchair standard dwellings within new schemes.

8.8.4   It is however, important to recognise that over 4,800 households have someone with a
        walking difficulty and particularly in the light of the fact that 81% of wheelchair users
        do not live in an adapted dwelling. These matters are now principally an issue dealt
        with by Part M of the Building Regulations.




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8.9      Affordable Housing Needs Requirement 2000 - 2006
8.9.1    The total affordable housing need annually is for 1,774 units. Re-lets of the existing
         social stock average 700 units and is the major means of addressing the scale of need
         identified. Even with a new delivery programme of 210 units there will still be an
         annual household need of 860 units which allows for elimination of the registered
         Housing Register of 4,034 at the rate of 807 units a year over a five year period to
         2006.

8.9.2    These figures however ignore 948 households planning to leave the area because of a
         lack of affordable housing by 2005.

8.9.3    It is not expected to be able to achieve this scale of supply in this timescale. However,
         even if no reduction in the current Housing Register was to be achieved, there would
         still be an annual requirement of 263 affordable units additional to existing stock
         supply from relets. Currently there is a new delivery programme of 210 units a year
         which is expected to be sustained, but will result in increasing levels of need.

8.10     Overall Target Levels
8.10.1   The annual level of need of 860 units not met by existing supply and new programme
         is clearly not economically deliverable or sustainable. Despite the evidence of the
         scale of need from existing and new forming households, there are wider issues to
         consider when setting targets for delivery of affordable housing from new
         developments. Primarily there is a need to build viable, sustainable developments.

8.10.2   Essentially planning should be providing for balanced communities, which
         acknowledge the need for social compatibility if the problems of housing in the past
         are not to be repeated.

8.10.3   The Council should set its own „target‟ for each site taking into account existing
         supply, survey demand and other planning sustainability and economic factors. In
         view of the high level of total need and the scale of land available to address it,
         particularly in the period to 2006, the maximum level of subsidised affordable housing
         of 30% of all units should be applied.

8.10.4   Site Thresholds

         The new threshold level in Circular 6/98 is set at 25 units or 1 hectare but the lack of
         units achieved on sites above this level could have a severe impact on delivery of
         affordable housing if this level is to be applied. Whilst large sites exist in Basingstoke
         Town, this is not the case in the larger rural settlements and we believe that the
         significant level of need identified is unlikely to be met even at the lower threshold of
         15 units. We would recommend therefore that consideration is given to adopting 15
         units or half a hectare as the threshold for affordable housing negotiation in all
         settlements outside Basingstoke Town with a population of below 3,000. In view of
         the Housing Corporation‟s commitment to double it‟s programme nationally in rural
         areas, an even lower threshold may be considered in some locations.




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                                                    Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001


8.11     Needs Distribution by Sub-Area
8.11.1   There will be variance at local level between demand and existing stock supply and
         the localised supply / demand analysis report will be valuable in setting site targets,
         both to address affordable housing and in particular by house type and size. Some
         future development may be undertaken on Council owned land but as this supply is
         running out, future subsidy through land provision will need to be negotiated with
         private landowners and developers in the provision of planning permission.

8.11.2   The survey data disks contain a breakdown of the whole of the future housing needs
         section of the questionnaire, which can be used by officers to identify specific needs
         by sub-area by cross-tabulation.

8.11.3   The data tables provided give a sub-area breakdown of each question, analysed both
         by existing households planning to move and the newly forming “concealed”
         households and facilitates the preparation of localised housing needs which will be
         useful for site development briefs.

8.12     Location Demand Analysis
8.12.1   The locational preferences (up to two) expressed by whole households moving and
         new households in each area are listed below:-

         Table 8-2        Location Preferences and Affordable Need

                                                New /               Net Affordable Need
          Location                            Concealed
                                              Households             %            Nos Implied**

          Basingstoke                           2,769                 83              2,298
          Oakley                                   487                88                429
          Tadley                                   480              100                 480
          Existing villages- North West            118                60                 71
          Existing villages- South West             62              100                  62
          Existing villages- North East            176                50                 88
          Existing villages- South East             46                 0                   0
          Overton                                  245                67                164
          Old Basing                               197                74                146
          Whitchurch                               193                79                152
          Kingsclere                               141              100                 141
          In another village                       152              100                 152
          Total                                 5,066                 83              4,183

         * Figures based on 1st choice location preferences.
         ** Net actual affordable need by area to 2006.

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                                                    Basingstoke & Deane Housing Needs Survey - 2001


8.12.2   Preference patterns are similar between existing and new households, although a high
         proportion of new forming households will live anywhere in Basingstoke & Deane
         Borough. We estimate that 1,040 of these 1,083 households would require affordable
         housing.

8.12.3   We have run a number of cross-tabulations to check on the actual income capacity of
         households expressing preference to live in the areas outlined in the table above. In
         all specific locations, the proportion earning below £25,000 is between 50% and 100%
         of new households. Generally, around 83% of all concealed households by location
         need affordable housing.

8.12.4   The net affordable requirements of all new forming households is in the region of
         4,183.

         Table 8-3         Existing Households Wanting To Move to Another Village

             Moving From                                Moving To

             Basingstoke                                Chineham / Hatch Warren (1)
                                                        Cliddesden / Preston Candover (1)
                                                        Lychpit (1)
                                                        Chineham (1)
                                                        Sherborne St John / Bramley (1)
                                                        Dummer / North Waltham (1)
                                                        Sherfield (1)
                                                        Hatch Warren (1)
                                                        Kempshott (1)
                                                        Bramley / Chineham / Sherfield (1)
             North West                                 Woolton Hill (1)
             North East                                 Preston Candover (1)
             South East                                 Cliddesden (2)
                                                        North Waltham (1)
                                                        Preston Candover / Ellisfield /
                                                        Farleigh (1)

8.12.5   This schedule provides in alphabetical order of the current ward location and the
         village location (where indicated) of preferences for existing households wanting to
         live in „another village‟. These could be grossed by a factor relevant to the current
         ward from the data tables schedule. Clearly they can be added to the „existing village‟
         demand but are a guide to demand only as freed up properties also need to be
         assessed. There is a mismatch factor between supply and demand by house type and
         size which also needs to be considered.


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         Table 8-4        New Households Wanting To Move to Another Village

            Moving From                              Moving To

            Basingstoke                              Chineham / Up Nately (1)

            North West                               Burghclere (1)

            North East                               Pamber / Baughurst (1)

            South East                               Alresford (1)

8.12.6   New forming households wanting to live in another village are a very small sample
         and not all who ticked this choice provided a named location. We would however
         urge caution on making grossed estimates of samples of one from another parish and
         these numbers should be viewed as of interest value only.




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