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National Energy Map for India:
Technology Vision 2030
Summary for policy-makers
The Energy and Resources Institute Office of the Principal Scientific Adviser,
Government of India
ISBN 81-7993-064-5
Published by
T E R I Press Office of the Principal Scientific Adviser,
The Energy and Resources Institute Government of India
Darbari Seth Block 318, Vigyan Bhavan Annexe
IHC Complex, Lodhi Road Maulana Azad Road, New Delhi – 110 011
New Delhi – 110 003, India India
Tel. 2468 2100 or 2468 2111 Tel. 2302 2112
Fax 2468 2144 or 2468 2145 Fax 2302 2113
India +91 • Delhi (0)11 India +91 • Delhi (0)11
E-mail teripress@teri.res.in Web www.psa.gov.in
Web www.teriin.org
Contents
Preface .............................................................................................................. 5
Acknowledgements ........................................................................................... 7
Project team ..................................................................................................... 9
Introduction ................................................................................................... 11
Approach ........................................................................................................ 11
Energy scenarios ............................................................................................. 13
Key findings ................................................................................................... 14
Transport sector options................................................................................. 18
Recommendations .......................................................................................... 21
Preface
India has recorded impressive rates of eco- This study has been commissioned and
nomic growth in recent years, which provide supported by the office of the PSA (Princi-
the basis for more ambitious achievements pal Scientific Advisor) to the Government of
in the future. However, a healthy rate of eco- India. The two-year study has drawn input
nomic growth equalling or exceeding the from several organizations and sectoral ex-
current rate of 8% per annum would require perts across the country to gauge the likeli-
major provision of infrastructure and en- hood of technological progress and availabil-
hanced supply of input such as energy. High ity of energy resources in the future.
economic growth would create much larger The MARKAL model used in this study
demand for energy and this would present is a widely used integrated energy system
the country with a variety of choices in terms optimization framework that enables policy-
of supply possibilities. Technology would be makers and researchers to examine the best
an important element of future energy strat- technological options for each stage of en-
egy for the country, because related to a ergy processing, conversion, and use. This
range of future demand and supply scenario modelling framework was used to represent
would be issues of technological choices a detailed technological database for the In-
both on the supply and demand sides, which dian energy sector with regard to energy re-
need to be understood at this stage, if they sources (indigenous extraction, imports, and
are to become an important part of India’s conversion) as well as energy use across the
energy solution in the future. five major end-use sectors (agricultural, com-
The Indian government aims to achieve mercial, residential, transport, and industrial).
an economic growth rate of over 8% in the The report discusses the data, assump-
next two decades in order to be able to meet tions, and methodological framework used
its development objectives. However, rapid to estimate useful energy requirements of
economic growth would also imply the need the country based on demographic and eco-
for structural changes in the economy as well nomic drivers. Technological assessments of
as for induced shifts in the patterns of end- resources and energy conversion processes
use demands. To meet the needs of the In- have been described in the report. Economic
dian populace in the most effective manner, and technological scenarios have been devel-
it is important to map out the energy de- oped within the integrated modelling frame-
mand and supply dynamics in the country. work to assess the best energy mix during the
This study estimates alternative trajectories modelling time frame. Based on the scenario
of energy requirements and examines the assessment, the report provides directions to
likely fuel mix for the country under various various stakeholders associated with the In-
resource and technological constraints over dian energy sector including policy-makers,
a 30-year time frame. technologists, and investors.
The report clearly points towards the highlighted. The study points towards
country’s increasing import dependence of focussing efforts simultaneously on the de-
all fossil fuels. It also indicates that coal mand and supply sides for the economy to
would continue to play a key role in meeting attain the most efficient utilization of avail-
the country’s energy requirements. How- able resources.
ever, the indigenous availability of coal is ex-
pected to plateau in the next couple of de-
cades with the current exploitation plans
and technology. The need for energy effi-
ciency in the end-use sectors and radical (R K Pachauri)
policy changes in the transport sector is also Director-General, TERI
Acknowledgements
TERI acknowledges the high-level technical Corporation of India Ltd, Bharat Heavy
input and guidance provided by various na- Electricals Ltd, National Thermal Power
tional experts in the development of the Corporation Ltd, National Hydro Power
model. TERI specially thanks the following Corporation, North Indian Textiles Manu-
experts: R Chidambaram, Kirit Parikh, A K facturers Association, Indian Railways, Oil
Kolar, Kamal Kapoor, Brahma Deo, V K and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd, Engi-
Sharma, R B Grover, Srinivas Shetty, H S neers India Ltd, Indian Aluminum Manu-
Kamath, V K Agarwal, L M Das, P K Sen, facturers Association, Steel Authority of In-
Adish Jain, Arun Kumar, Surya P Sethi, dia Ltd, Fertilizer Association of India, Ce-
Arvinder S Sachdeva, Prodipto Ghosh, Dilip ment Manufacturers Association, Confed-
Chenoy, Sudhinder Thakur, P K Modi, Alok eration of Indian Industries, and Indian
Saxena, and S Nand. Paper Manufacturers Association.
TERI also acknowledges the input pro- Thanks are due to Mr Rakesh Kumar Arora
vided by the following organizations: De- for his invaluable secretarial assistance.
partment of Atomic Energy, Nuclear Power
Project team
Principal investigator Leena Srivastava
Core team Ritu Mathur, Pradeep K Dadhich, Atul Kumar,
Sakshi Marwah, Pooja Goel
Sector experts in TERI Amit Kumar, Shirish S Garud, Mahesh Vipradas,
V V N Kishore, Pradeep Kumar, Alok Adholeya,
Girish Sethi, N Vasudevan, Shashank Jain, Abhishek Nath,
Upasna Gaur, Ananya Sengupta, Parimita Mohanty,
K Rajeshwari, Ranjan K Bose, Sudip Mitra, R C Pal
Advisors R K Pachauri, R K Batra, Y P Abbi, S K Chand,
K Ramanathan, Preety M Bhandari
Project review monitoring S P Sukhatme, S K Sikka, E A S Sarma, Y S R Prasad,
committee R P Gupta, Chandan Roy, R K Saigal
Editorial and production Ambika Shankar, Archana Singh, Gopalakrishnan,
team Jaya Kapur, K P Eashwar, Richa Sharma, R K Joshi,
R Ajith Kumar, Subrat K Sahu, T Radhakrishnan
Summary for policy-makers
Introduction Approach
The GoI (Government of India) plans to The key focus of this study was to examine
achieve a GDP (gross domestic product) the role that various technological options
growth rate of 10% in the Eleventh Five Year could play under alternative scenarios of
Plan and maintain an average growth rate of economic growth and development, re-
about 8% in the next 15 years (Planning Com- source availabilities, and technological
mission 2002). Given the plans for rapid eco- progress. For this purpose, it was important
nomic growth, it is evident that the country’s to choose an integrated energy-modelling
requirements for energy and supporting in- framework that would facilitate the creation
frastructure would increase rapidly as well. and analysis of various scenarios of energy
In order to enable policy-makers to under- demand and supply at the national level, as
take timely decisions, it is extremely impor- well as provide a detailed representation and
tant to estimate the magnitude of total en- analysis at the technological level for each
ergy requirements as well as examine the category of resource as well as sectoral end-
economic, environmental, and geopolitical use demand.
implications of India’s alternative energy After an extensive survey of existing mod-
pathways in the next few decades. While fac- els, the MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation)
tors such as demographic profile, change in model was selected to examine the pathways
lifestyle, and consumer preferences dictate the for optimal energy supply to meet the end-
level of useful energy demands, the availability use services in the five energy-consuming
and prices of resources and technologies influ- sectors (agriculture, commercial, residen-
ence the levels and patterns of final energy re- tial, industrial, and transport) under various
quirements in the future. scenarios. MARKAL is a dynamic linear-
Realizing the importance of examining programming representation of a general-
the role of various energy technology options ized energy system. Exogenously estimated
for India’s energy sector under alternative useful energy demands were provided to the
policy scenarios, the Office of the Principal model over a modelling time frame of 2001–
Scientific Adviser to the GoI entrusted this 31. Apart from indicating the minimized to-
study entitled ‘National Energy Map: Tech- tal system cost of the energy sector under
nology Vision 2030’ to TERI (The Energy various scenarios, the model results provide
and Resources Institute). information regarding the level of uptake of
12 National Energy Map for India: Technology Vision 2030
total energy resources, their distribution liberations and focused interactions with
across the consuming sectors, the choice of sectoral experts, researchers, industry asso-
technological options at the resource supply, ciations, R&D (research and development)
conversion and end-use levels, investment institutions, government agencies, and
levels, an indication of capacity additions policy-makers in each of the individual sec-
and retirements, emission level associated tors were held via workshops to finalize the
with resource supply, and end-use technologi- input data to the model.
cal options adopted. The overall methodology Energy demands categorized by end use
is schematically described in Figure 1. in each of the five major energy sectors were
The availability and timeline of possible estimated using regression equations estab-
technological options (existing and futuris- lished using population and GDP as the key
tic) included in the model and their techno- drivers to growth.
logical characterization were evolved on the
basis of an extensive literature review. Addi-
tionally, it was important to draw on the Energy scenarios
knowledge base of experts from various en-
ergy consuming and supplying sectors to be Seven alternative scenarios were set up
able to provide input of adequate quality to against the BAU (business-as-usual) sce-
the model. Therefore, several rounds of de- nario to examine variations with regard to
Model inputs Model outputs
Population projections Agriculture
Commercial Resource-wise
Sectoral final energy
demands Residential requirement
Industrial
GDP projections
Transport Supply side
technology
Indigenous energy deployment
resource availability
and prices
Demand side
Imported energy MARKAL technology
resources and prices model deployment
Demand side:
techno-economic and Investments required in
performance parameters (1) technologies and
(end use technologies) (2) fuel
Supply side:
techno-economic and Emissions
performance parameters
(resources and
conversion options)
Figure 1 Schematic representation of methodological framework
Summary for policy-makers 13
economic growth and technological
Box 1 Description of scenarios
progress. Box 1 provides a brief de-
scription of these scenarios. P LG (low growth) represents low GDP (gross
During the course of the study, it domestic product) growth rate of 6.7%
was felt that there was a strong need to P BAU (business-as-usual) represents energy
focus attention on energy policy op- development as per current government
tions in the transport sector on two ac- plans and policies, representing a GDP
counts. growth rate of 8%
P Increasing trends of inefficiency in P HG (high growth) represents a high GDP
the sector due to the use of personal growth rate of 10%
vehicles for passenger movement P EFF (high efficiency) includes energy-effi-
and enhanced road transportation ciency measures spanning across all sectors
for freight movement. P REN (aggressive renewable energy) repre-
P Relatively low scope for supply-side sents a high penetration of renewable en-
alternatives to the use of gasoline ergy forms
P NUC (high nuclear capacity) scenario con-
and diesel, at least in the short term.
siders an aggressive pursuit of nuclear-based
power generation
Accordingly, an additional set of
P HYB (hybrid) scenario is a combination of the
policy scenarios was developed specifi-
BAU, EFF, REN, and NUC scenarios
cally for the transport sector in view of
P HG-cum-HHYB (high-growth hybrid) repre-
the country’s high dependence on oil
sents a high growth rate of 10% in addition to
import and the concerns due to rising
the hybrid scenario
oil prices (Table 1).
Table 1 Description of energy-efficiency scenarios for the transport sector
Scenario Description
Enhanced share of public transport Share of public transport increased to 60% in 2036 as
(PUB-PVT) against 51% in the BAU scenario
Increased share of rail in passenger P Railway freight share increased from 37% in 2001
and freight movement vis-à-vis road to 50% in 2036 as against 17% in the BAU scenario
(RAIL-ROAD) P Railway passenger share increased from 23% in 2001
to 35% in 2036 as against 23% in the BAU scenario
P Share of electric traction increased for rail passenger
and freight to 80% by 2036 instead of 60% in the BAU
scenario
Fuel efficiency improvements Fuel efficiency of all existing motorized transport modes
(FUEL EFF) increase by 50% from 2001 till 2036
Enhanced use of bio-diesel in Penetration of bio-diesel to 65 Mtoe by 2036
transport sector (BIO-DSL)
Transport sector hybrid (TPT-HYB) Incorporates all the above-mentioned measures in addi-
tion to BAU
Mtoe – million tonnes of oil equivalent; BAU – business-as-usual
14 National Energy Map for India: Technology Vision 2030
Key findings energy resources, the analysis indicates that
the impact of these supply-side alternatives
The main findings of this study are dis- is minor when compared with the total re-
cussed below. quirements of commercial energy by 2031,
as indicated in the REN (aggressive renew-
Total commercial energy able energy) and NUC (high nuclear capac-
requirements ity) scenarios. Although the contribution of
hydro, nuclear, and renewable energy forms
Table 2 presents the commercial energy re- together increases by about six times during
quirements across various scenarios. In the 2001–31, these sources can at most contrib-
BAU scenario, the total commercial energy ute to a mere 4.5% of the total commercial
consumption is estimated to increase by 7.5 energy requirements over the modelling time
times over the 30-year modelling period frame. It is, therefore, evident that the pressure
from a level of 285 Mtoe (million tonnes of on the three conventional energy forms, that is
oil equivalent) in 2001 to 2123 Mtoe in coal, oil, and gas will continue to remain high
2031. A comparison of energy requirements at least in the next few decades.
across the alternative economic growth sce- The EFF (high-efficiency) scenario, how-
narios indicates that if the economy grows at ever, indicates that there exists a significant
a slower pace of 6.7%, as characterized by scope for reducing energy (~ 581 Mtoe in
the LG (low-growth) scenario, commercial 2031) if efficiency measures are deployed on
energy requirement would increase to only both the demand as well as the supply side.
about 1579 Mtoe by 2031 (5.9% GDP These reduction possibilities exist prima-
growth), while the energy requirements rily in the power, industrial, and transport
could be as high as 3351 Mtoe (8.6% GDP sectors, and can lead to energy displacement
growth) by 2031 with a growth rate of 10% during the modelling period mainly in
as represented by the HG (high-growth) terms of coal (~ 337 Mtoe in 2031) and oil
scenario. (~ 244 Mtoe in 2031).
Although, the Indian government has The HYB (hybrid) scenario indicates that
plans for enhancing the exploitation of its energy requirements by the year 2031 would
hydro power, nuclear energy, and renewable be of the order of those in the LG scenario,
Table 2 Variation in commercial energy consumption across various scenarios (Mtoe)
Scenario 2001/02 2006/07 2011/12 2016/17 2021/22 2026/27 2031/32
BAU 285 391 527 749 1046 1497 2123
REN 285 391 524 740 1033 1479 2097
NUC 285 391 527 749 1030 1455 2061
EFF 285 379 479 623 838 1131 1542
HYB 285 379 478 619 823 1101 1503
LG 285 361 456 605 816 1134 1579
HG 285 435 638 962 1438 2186 3351
HHYB 285 405 544 760 1087 1576 2320
BAU – business-as-usual; REN – aggressive renewable energy; NUC – high nuclear capacity; EFF – high efficiency;
HYB – hybrid; LG – low growth; HG – high growth; HHYB – high-growth hybrid; Mtoe – million tonnes of oil equivalent
Summary for policy-makers 15
Commercial energy consumption Commercial energy consumption Commercial energy consumption
(million tonnes of oil equivalent) (million tonnes of oil equivalent) (million tonnes of oil equivalent)
700 4000
Projections for 2011 1600 Projections for 2021 Projections for 2031
18
30
3500 40
600 54 1400 136
132
18 18
3000
500 18 1200
51 18 51 51 1152
49 18 261 30 2500
47 1000 30 31 539
400 132 129 132 40 41
211 211 2000 136 40 136
209 800 30 30 136
190 132
300 187 405
125 757 40 729 40
405 396 1500 136 757 136
600
308 513 578 2008
200 328
1000
300 400 723
242 217 242 238 199 1176
100 466 1084 1145
200 353
441 450 500 839 811
319
0 0 0
BAU EFF NUC REN LG HG BAU EFF NUC REN LG HG BAU EFF NUC REN LG HG
Scenario Scenario Scenario
Renewable energy Nuclear energy Hydro power (large + small) Natural gas Oil Coal
BAU–business-as-usual; EFF–high efficiency; NUC–high nuclear capacity; REN–aggressive renewable energy;
LG–low growth; HG–high growth
Figure 2 Fuel-wise commercial energy consumption in 2011, 2021, and 2031 in alternative
energy scenarios
while those in the HHYB (high-growth hy- Identification of main demand- and
brid) scenario would be in the range of re- supply-side interventions for India’s
quirements in the BAU scenario. energy sector
Gas is a preferred option for power gen-
eration as well as fertilizer production. How- Based on the analysis of the model results,
ever, while the domestic availability of natu- the key interventions can be delineated as
ral gas is estimated to plateau at about 44 follows.
Mtoe by 2012, imports of gas are fraught P Enhancing end-use efficiencies (interven-
with uncertainty. Accordingly, coal and oil tion 1, I-1).
are expected to remain the dominant fuels in P Adopting advanced coal- and gas-based
the next couple of decades. In the BAU sce- power generating technologies (interven-
nario, the share of coal in commercial energy tion 2, I-2).
ranges between 45% and 55% during the P Enhancing the exploitation of renewable
entire modelling time frame, while the share energy and nuclear energy resources (in-
of oil ranges between 36% and 40% (Figure tervention 3, I-3).
2). However, the HYB scenario indicates the P Enhancing efficiency in the transport sec-
potential to reduce coal and oil require- tor by modal shifts (intervention 4, I-4).
ments as compared to the BAU scenario
during the modelling time frame with ad- Accordingly, Figure 3 shows the possibili-
equate and timely policy and technological ties of reducing commercial energy require-
intervention. ments over the 30-year modelling time frame
16 National Energy Map for India: Technology Vision 2030
The potential savings due to
end-use efficiency alone in-
crease from about 28 Mtoe in
2011 to 106 Mtoe in 2021,
and 294 Mtoe in 2031
across all the sectors.
The possibility of com-
mercial energy saving due to
advanced coal- and gas-
based power generating
technologies is represented
by the area between I-1 and
I-2 in Figure 3.
The model results indi-
cate that in order of eco-
nomic merit, the preferred
Figure 3 Scope for reducing commercial energy
power generation technolo-
requirements
gies are: (1) large hydro;
(2) refinery-residue-based
IGCC (integrated gasifica-
against the above-mentioned set of interven- tion combined cycle); (3) imported-coal-
tions. It is observed that from a level of based IGCC; (4) high-efficiency CCGT
2123 Mtoe in 2031 in the BAU scenario, (combined cycle gas turbine) (H-frame gas
commercial energy requirements can be re- turbine); (5) indigenous-coal-based IGCC;
duced significantly to 1503 Mtoe in the I-4 (6) normal CCGT; (7) ultra-supercritical
scenario. Thus, a reduction of about 620 boiler; and (8) supercritical boiler.
Mtoe (more than twice the total commercial Although the government already has
energy requirements in 2001) can be plans to exploit its hydro power potential,
achieved by undertaking an integrated ap- additional efforts should be directed to-
proach of adopting demand-side as well as wards replacing the sub-critical coal-based
supply-side alternatives in the energy sector. power generation technology with efficient
As indicated in Figure 3, the scope for en- options such as IGCC and H-frame CCGT,
ergy reduction is the maximum from end- which can play a significant role in reducing
use efficiencies in the demand sectors as rep- the country’s coal requirement. It is ob-
resented by the area between BAU and I-1. served that about 122 Mtoe of coal con-
In 2031, each of the end-use sectors has a sumption could be reduced by 2031 by mov-
potential to reduce energy consumption be- ing to these more efficient power generation
tween 15% and 25% of the energy use in the options (Figure 4).
BAU scenario. However, given the relative Further, another 72 Mtoe of coal for
weight of each sector in the total energy use, power generation could be displaced by en-
the industry and transport sectors have the hanced nuclear-energy and renewable-
highest potential for energy savings, energy-based power generation, which is
amounting to 44% and 41% in 2011, respec- represented by the area between I-2 and the
tively, 42% and 44% in 2021, respectively, trajectory I-3 in Figure 4.
and 41% and 47%, respectively, in 2031.
Summary for policy-makers 17
With the likely growth in
energy demands and it is
clear that the maximum an-
nual production potential of
all the conventional energy
forms will be fully exploited
by 2016, and the country
would need to increase its
imports of coal, oil, and gas
in the future.
Moreover, as indicated in
Figure 5, in the BAU sce-
nario, imports of all the con-
ventional energy forms
would increase significantly
from the 2001 levels. Al-
though the scope for reduc-
Figure 4 Coal consumption across various interventions and ing import dependency
scenarios seems minor even in the
HYB scenario, all efforts
need to be focused towards
Although the requirement for total elec- this end, which have implications on energy
tricity reduces only due to end-use efficien- security as well as foreign exchange outflows
cies in each of the consuming sectors, the of the economy.
primary commercial energy requirements
are determined also by the choice of power
generating technology. In
the BAU scenario, power
generation capacity in-
creases to 795 GW (giga-
watts) by 2031. The model
results indicate that with
the end-use efficiencies
alone, power generating ca-
pacity could reduce by 128
GW in 2031 (which is of
the order of total power
generating capacity in
2001). IGCC and H-frame
CCGT are almost equally
preferred options for power
generation and their intro-
duction leads to the dis-
placement of the coal sub-
critical technology.
Figure 5 Fuel-wise import dependency
18 National Energy Map for India: Technology Vision 2030
Transport sector options The Sankey diagram shown in Figure 7
depicts the Indian energy balance for 2001
The consumption patterns in the transport in the BAU scenario, which amounts to
sector indicate that despite rising oil prices, 11 917 PJ (petajoules). It is observed that
demands for passenger and freight move- the highest losses occur during the genera-
ment have been rather inelastic with regard tion of coal-based power and account for
to fuel prices. about 2924 PJ representing 25% of the total
In the BAU scenario, the total energy energy supply. The second-largest energy
consumption in the transport sector is esti- loss occurs in the transmission and distribu-
mated to increase by about 14 times from 34 tion of electricity, amounting to 590 PJ (5%
Mtoe in 2001 to 461 Mtoe in 2031 (Figure 6). of the total energy supply to the economy),
The analysis of the transport sector indi- which is higher than any of the electricity
cates that although much of the fuel reduc- consuming sectors. Fuel and oil losses ac-
tion possibility in this sector can be related count for about 316 PJ, followed by conver-
to autonomous efficiency improvements of sion losses related to gas-based power gen-
the transportation modes, efforts should be eration (amounting to 219 PJ).
made to enhance rail-based movement and Figure 8 depicts the energy flows in the
the use of public transportation. This will go Indian economy in the BAU scenario in
a long way in reducing the transport sector’s 2031 amounting to 88 879 PJ. Conversion
dependence on oil. By targeting action on losses related to coal-based power genera-
the demand as well as supply sides in the tion are still the highest, constituting about
transport sector in the TPT-HYB scenario, a 21% of the total energy supply. Power trans-
reduction of about 190 Mtoe of energy can mission and distribution losses continue to
be achieved in 2031 as compared to the BAU be significant (amounting to 2864 PJ or 3%
scenario. of the energy supplied), followed by conver-
sion losses in gas-based
power generation, and fuel
and oil losses representing
2037 PJ (1.7% of the energy
supply) and 2089 PJ (1.8%
of the energy supply), re-
spectively.
The Sankey diagram
shown in Figure 9 represents
the energy flow in the Indian
economy under the EFF
scenario in the year 2031.
Total energy requirements
are 27% lower than in the
BAU scenario amounting to
64 574 PJ. Conversion losses
related to coal-based power
generation constitute only
14% (8798 PJ) of the total
Figure 6 Comparison of energy consumption in the energy supply, while losses
transport sector across various scenarios in the transmission and dis-
Summary for policy-makers 19
Figure 7 Sankey diagram for the business-as-usual scenario (2001)
Figure 8 Sankey diagram for the business-as-usual scenario (2031)
20 National Energy Map for India: Technology Vision 2030
Figure 9 Sankey diagram for the high-efficiency scenario (2031)
tribution of power account for 3% (2143 PJ) Indian economy is already expected to be
of the total energy supply. The fuel and oil progressing along an energy-efficient path.
losses in the refining and gas-based power The second observation is that much of
generation are 2.6% (1702 PJ) and 2% the scope for further reduction in energy
(1338 PJ), respectively, of the total energy intensity exists due to the adoption of effi-
supply. ciency measures rather than the supply-side
options such as the enhanced pursuit of
Need for an integrated energy nuclear-energy- and renewable-energy-
planning approach based power generation technologies. In the
EFF scenario, energy intensity could de-
Figure 10 depicts the trends in energy inten- crease from 0.022 kgoe/rupee of GDP in
sity in each of the alternative scenarios de- 2001 to 0.012 kgoe/rupee of GDP in 2031.
veloped in this study against the BAU sce- An analysis of the two integrated energy
nario. It is observed that even in the BAU policy scenarios, that is, the HYB (repre-
scenario, energy intensity exhibits a declin- senting an integrated policy approach at 8%
ing trend, from 0.022 kgoe (kilogram of oil GDP growth) and the HHYB (representing
equivalent)/rupee of GDP in 2001 to 0.017 an integrated policy approach at 10% GDP
kgoe/rupee of GDP in 2031 (a decrease of growth) suggest that supply-side options
23%). This implies that even with a GDP alone would not be able to reduce energy in-
growth rate of 8%, and government plans tensity significantly. It is, therefore, neces-
and policies materializing as planned, the sary to simultaneously adopt measures on
Summary for policy-makers 21
quirements as well as diversify
its fuel resource mix. Towards
this end, the economy would
need to pursue an integrated ap-
proach to energy planning. The
key elements that should consti-
tute such an integrated planning
exercise are suggested in the fol-
lowing sections along with a
graded classification scale to
help delineate the immediate
priority areas from the other op-
tions.
Provide a thrust to explora-
tion and production of coal
The study clearly indicates that
Figure 10 Trends in energy intensity from 2001 to 2031
coal would continue to be the
mainstay, accounting for about
45%–55% of India’s commer-
the demand and supply sides. Moreover, it is cial energy mix throughout the modelling
best for the economy to pursue a high eco- time frame in each of the scenarios.
nomic growth (10% GDP) while targeting By 2031, imports of coal in the BAU sce-
exploitation of alternative energy forms as nario are expected to be about 1176 Mtoe.
well as efficient technology options from the Even at the current price of 60 dollars/tonne
demand as well as supply side. With this ap- for imported coal, this would translate to a
proach, the economy would not only be able foreign exchange outflow of about 400 thou-
to meet its developmental goals but also en- sand crore rupees.
sure rapid economic growth, making sure With coal demand expected to increase in
that this growth is achieved with the lowest the Asian market, prices of coal may also in-
possible energy intensity (reaching 0.011 crease rapidly, exerting greater pressure on
kgoe/rupee of GDP by 2031 in the HHYB the economy. Therefore, it is extremely im-
scenario). portant to reduce the import dependency of
coal by gearing up the exploration and pro-
duction activity in this sector with a view to
Recommendations increase the extractable coal reserves. For
this, a multi-pronged approach consisting of
The results of the modelling exercise indi- following elements would need to be adopted.
cate that from the viewpoint of energy secu- P Bringing about technological up-grada-
rity and the need to reduce its dependence tion of mining technologies.
on imports of all the conventional energy fu- P Opening up of the coal sector to private
els, the country needs to undertake all pos- investors. A policy similar to the new ex-
sible options on the demand and supply side ploration policy of the Ministry of Petro-
simultaneously to reduce its total energy re- leum and Natural Gas, GoI, may be
22 National Energy Map for India: Technology Vision 2030
adopted after modifications to suit the possibilities of conservation and substitution
coal sector requirements. through the use of alternative fuels and tech-
P Strengthening the CMPDIL (Central nologies. Enhancing the share of public
Mine Planning and Design Institute Ltd) transport and rail-based movement; intro-
to undertake greater R&D (research and duction of alternative fuels such as CNG
development) efforts, and scale up its ef- (compressed natural gas), bio-diesel, and
forts to improve coal extraction technol- ethanol; and autonomous efficiency im-
ogy and methods, especially beyond 300- provements in vehicles could reduce the im-
m (metre) depth. port dependency of petroleum products
P Undertaking joint ventures for extraction from about 74%, 81%, and 90% in the BAU
of coal from deep coal seams with a view scenario to 72%, 76%, and 85% in the
to upgrade technology and improve HYB scenario for 2011, 2021, and 2031,
productivity respectively.
P Adopting advanced exploration and pro-
duction technologies to identify and pro- Reduce coal requirements
duce coal from seams beyond 300 m.
It is observed that coal would continue to ac-
count for 50% of the energy mix, with about
Involving private sector in exploration
70% being used by the power sector. The
and production of hydrocarbons
model results indicate that maximum reduc-
Although the initiatives taken by the DGH tion in the energy requirements can be
(Directorate-General of Hydrocarbons) are achieved in the power sector on the
already producing results in the exploration supply side.
and production area, recent findings by the Since coal-based power generation will
Reliance and other joint venture operations continue to play a critical role in the next
indicate possibilities of much greater find- 30–50 years, it becomes essential to adopt
ings in the oil and gas sector. NELP-V (New well-proven technologies like supercritical
Exploration and Licensing Policy-V) is a and ultra-supercritical boilers in the imme-
step in the right direction but it is important diate future, that is, in the Eleventh Five Year
to continue pursuing exploratory efforts for Plan instead of using sub-critical technology.
tapping indigenous oil and gas. The Benson boiler was first designed in
1924 (Siemens Power Generation 1995),
Steps towards energy security in and since then, these boilers are being de-
hydrocarbons signed and operated at higher steam proper-
ties (for example, pressures of 300 bars and
India’s high dependence on oil import re- temperatures greater than 600 °C). It is
flected in various scenarios indicates the strongly recommended that India adopt this
economy’s vulnerability to oil supply disrup- technology immediately. Experience world-
tions (emanating from external factors such wide has shown that Benson boilers become
as wars and political instability) and adverse cost-effective if the unit size is about 1000
impacts of sudden oil price shocks. MW (megawatts) or more.
Since the transport sector accounts for Also, it is important to accelerate the
most of the oil consumption, it is also the transition to other efficient coal-based
most crucial sector in terms of requiring ac- power generation technologies such as the
tion for improving efficiency and enhancing IGCC technology. For this purpose, demon-
Summary for policy-makers 23
stration plants using IGCC should be set up Reduce consumption of petroleum
to address the issue of technology barrier. products
Faster learning can be achieved by outright
purchase of technology. A continued effort is Since the transport sector accounts for
required in this direction to achieve sus- nearly 70% of the total petroleum consump-
tained adoption of the emerging technolo- tion, the following measures are recom-
gies. For example, in case of the indigenous mended to reduce the consumption of petro-
development of supercritical boilers, the leum products and thereby their import de-
phased manner of technology development pendency.
was adopted. P Enhancing the share of public transporta-
With increased refining capacity, refinery tion, promoting MRTS (Mass Rapid
residue such as vacuum residue and petro- Transit System), ensuring better connec-
leum coke will be available on a large scale. tivity of trains to urban areas of the cities,
It is recommended that refinery-residue- introducing high capacity buses, and so on.
based IGCC power generation plants also be P Electrifying the railway tracks to the
set up. International experience in this tech- maximum extent possible.
nology is already available. Handling refin- P Increasing the share of rail in freight
ing residue is comparatively easier than han- movement by enhancing container move-
dling high-ash coal for gasification for the pro- ment and providing door-to-door deliv-
duction of ‘syn’ gas and its use in gas turbines ery systems.
for power generation. The government should P Introducing Bharat-III norms across the
adopt this technology as soon as possible. country for road-based personal vehicles
Further, adoption of aero-derivative ad- P Introducing cleaner fuels such as low-
vanced gas turbines like H-frame for power sulphur diesel, ethanol blending, and
generation should be aggressively promoted. bio-diesel.
In future, it is possible that natural gas re-
serves will increase, especially due to the ef- In the industry sector, given the inefficient
forts of the GoI in deep-sea exploration as diesel consumption by the DG sets for cap-
also due to the viability of extracting natural tive power generation, phasing out the use of
gas from gas hydrates. Therefore, aggressive diesel in industry as well as in the agriculture
adoption of advanced gas turbine will also sector is recommended. Provision of reliable
help in enhancing the efficiencies of IGCC power supply is imperative to achieve this.
plants. It will also be helpful if the GoI can Use of naphtha for fertilizers production
adopt a research programme on advanced and power generation should be avoided to
gas turbine in national research institutions make it available for the petrochemicals sec-
or laboratories like National Aeronautics tor. Natural gas should, therefore, be made
Ltd and Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. available in adequate quantities for off-take
Apart from the power sector, the possibil- by the fertilizer industry and power plants.
ity for reducing coal exists in steel reheating
furnaces, ceramic industry, brick units, and Natural gas to be the preferred fuel
in adoption of blended cements and im- for the country
proved technology in coal-based captive The study clearly indicates that natural gas
power generation units. Appropriate pricing is a preferred option for power generation as
of energy would play a crucial role in this well as for the production of nitrogenous fer-
regard. tilizer. The availability of natural gas, there-
24 National Energy Map for India: Technology Vision 2030
fore, needs to be facilitated by removing sible. Efforts should be directed to step up
infrastructural constraints. Besides its high nuclear capacity to about 70 GW during the
end-use efficiency, it is a cleaner fuel and modelling time frame, from 2001 to 2031.
relatively much easier to handle than coal. It However, if the modelling time frame is ex-
is, therefore, important to enhance natural tended beyond 2030, positive impacts of
gas exploration and production from deep nuclear energy in the form of advanced tho-
sea. Additionally, efforts should be made to rium-based reactors can be realized, with an
source gas from within the Asian region (in- estimated potential of about 530 GW.
cluding Turkmenistan, Bangladesh, Iran,
and Myanmar). Recommendations for the industry
sector
Make renewable energy resources
competitive, and target their use in P Ban import of second-hand machinery,
remote areas and for decentralized for example, in sponge iron plants and
power generation paper mills
P Use cleaner fuels
Renewable-energy-based power generation P Facilitate shift towards cogeneration, tap-
is not a preferred option due to the high ping waste heat for process heat
upfront costs and low capacity utilization of P Provide support to large-, medium-, and
these technologies. However, renewable en- small-scale industry
ergy resources play a crucial role to play in P Sub-sectoral technology options that will
providing decentralized power to remote ar- result in large-scale energy savings in-
eas. Apart from continuing to provide sup- clude the following.
port to renewable energy schemes, efforts • Introduce blast furnace with top recov-
should also be directed towards large-scale ery turbine in integrated steel plants,
deployment of related technologies in order BOF (basic oxygen furnace) for steel
to further bring down their costs. Decentral- making, and continuous casting for
ized power generation, especially in remote finished steel
locations where the grid cannot be extended, • Adopt and improvise COREX process
should necessarily be based on renewable for integrated steel plants
energy forms to provide these regions with • New cement plants to adopt six-stage
access to clean and reliable energy. preheating, and use blending materials
like slag and fly ash
Hydro power • Move towards larger integrated paper
Despite its low capacity utilization factor, mills with continuous digesters, black
hydro power is a cheap option as indicated liquor boilers, and cogeneration
by the model. Accordingly, investments in • Adopt efficient pre-baked electrodes in
hydro power should be accelerated to tap aluminium manufacturing process
this perennial source of power.
Recommendations for the residential
Nuclear power and commercial sector
Since additional nuclear-based capacity dis- P Lighting is the major electricity-consum-
places coal, it is important to enhance the ing end-use in the residential sector. The
penetration of this option to the extent pos- replacement of light bulbs with tube
Summary for policy-makers 25
lights and CFLs (compact fluorescent Enhance efforts to tap alternative
lamps) can bring about huge energy sav- indigenous energy sources
ings. Towards this end, the cost of CFLs
needs to be reduced by promoting their In order to minimize the levels of import de-
large-scale manufacturing. pendency in the future, it is imperative to
P Even with a conservative estimate of effi- focus on increasing the supply of indigenous
ciency improvement possibilities, there energy resources. Hence, India should plan
exists tremendous scope for savings in the to enhance efforts in R&D in the exploration
residential and commercial space condi- and production of energy resources; espe-
tioning. For this, it is necessary to make cially in the area of deep-sea natural gas
available efficient motors as against local exploration, extraction of coal from seams
makes, provide incentives to buy from that are over 300-m deep, in-situ coal gasifi-
government certified outlets, and create cation, and gas hydrates.
awareness among consumers.
P Tradition fuels need to be replaced with Transmission and distribution loss
cleaner fuels. Although traditional fuels It is also possible to reduce technical trans-
such as dung, firewood, and crop residue mission and distribution losses to the level of
are freely available, the low efficiencies, 8%–12% as against 16%–19% in the coun-
highly polluting nature, and other social try. The technologies for these would be to
and environmental impacts associated adopt very high-voltage AC transmission
with their use do not make them a sus- and HVDC (high-voltage DC transmission).
tainable option in the long term. The distribution losses can be reduced by
Although government initiatives would adopting energy-efficient transformers that
ensure that majority of the population is use high-grade steel in the transformer core
provided with access to modern fuels to reduce hysterical losses.
(city gas and liquefied petroleum gas), Tables 3 and 4 show the pathways that are
some of the rural poor are expected to apparent to achieve these goals over the next
continue supplementing their energy 30 years.
needs with freely available traditional fu-
els. For the population that has not
shifted to cleaner options, programmes References
for improved cookstoves, and so on
should be continued. Planning Commission. 2002
Tenth Plan Document
Rationalize agricultural power tariffs New Delhi: Planning Commission, Government
Power tariffs for the agricultural sector of India
should be at least at a level where the cost of
Siemens Power Generation. 1995
generation can be recovered.
800/1000-MW Coal-fired Power Plant Units
with High Efficiency Levels
Germany: Siemens Power Generation
Table 3 Suggested technology deployment pathway for power generation
Table 4 Suggested technology deployment pathway for end-use sectors
