FTES Projection

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					                                           FTES Projection Study
                                           Institutional Research

                                                    Summary

                                                                                                              FTES
              2007      2008          2009         2010         2011       2012      2013          2014      Coefficie
   FTES       2008      2009          2010         2011         2012       2013      2014          2015         nt
CR General 3366.42 3423.42           3527.99      3693.37      3856.62    4022.18    4190.26       4356.68      0.554
HS Graduates 397.72       420.73       418.26       419.98       438.27     454.53    457.38        465.88      0.575
               758.43     Indian)
Ethnic (Hispanic/American 849.75       923.55     1001.04      1081.26    1164.22    1249.90       1338.30      0.554
Adults over 50 365.44     422.10       500.12       573.89       650.16     728.93    810.20        893.97      0.320
Increase in DE 0.00        63.84       149.29       296.47       507.08     806.50   1230.24       1828.03      0.114
Total         4888.00 5179.83        5519.22      5984.75      6533.40    7176.35    7937.97       8882.86
Target           4888       5193         5888         6388         6888       7388      7888          8388
                 0.00
Projected vs. Target     (13.17)     (368.78)     (403.25)     (354.60)   (211.65)    49.97        494.86


                                           FTES Growth Composition

  10000                                                                      10000

   9000                                                                      9000

   8000                                                                      8000

   7000                                                                      7000     Increase in DE
   6000                                                                      6000     Adults over 50
                                                                                      Ethnic (Hispanic/American Indian)
   5000                                                                      5000
                                                                                      HS Graduates
   4000                                                                      4000     CR General
   3000                                                                      3000     Target

   2000                                                                      2000

   1000                                                                      1000

      0                                                                      0
          2007    2008    2009      2010   2011     2012       2013   2014
          2008    2009    2010      2011   2012     2013       2014   2015




                                                           1
                                               FTES Projection

CR has set a target of 5888 FTES by the end of the 2009-2010 academic year to recover the 1000
FTES lost in recent years. To continue to support the College and serve the educational and
economic needs of the District, we must continue to increase FTES through 2015.

Drivers to the target are projections of:
    High School graduates
    Ethnic groups
    Adults over age 50
    The remaining population for the District

Drivers to fill the gap between the FTES projection and the FTES from the population projection
     Increase Distance Education (DE)
     Increase student load

Target
FTES                  projected to grow to 5888 by 2009-10
                      projected to grow by 500 for the next 5 years

Drivers:
High School           district population of graduates projected to decline 2.8% per year
                      CR penetration rate projected increase of 1% per year rate through 2015

Ethnicity             Native American population projected to increase 3.1% per year
                      CR Native American penetration rate projected increase of .1% each year
                      Hispanic population projected to increase 2.6% per year
                      CR Hispanic penetration rate projected increase of .25% per year

Adults 50+            district population of adults over age 50 are projected to increase 2.4% per year
                      CR penetration rate projected increase by .25% per year at ~1 course/student

Remaining             district population projected to increase by less than 1% per year
                      CR penetration rate projected to increase by .1% per year

Drivers or Strategies to fill the gap

Increase DE           projection to increase the number of sections offered by 40% per year through
                      2015 with ~23 students per section

Increase load         projection for 1/6 of all CR students to increase course load by 1 course through
                      2015




Population projections are from the California Department of Finance from 2010 to 2020 for individuals over age 15.
Graduations are yearly projections are from the California Department of Education. Coefficients to project FTES
calculated by using past FTES, headcount, enrollment and credit hours.
                                                                       Drivers

High School Graduate Rate
District Population
High school graduates comprise less than 1% of the total population of the district and are
predicted by the California Department of Finance to diminish to .76% of the total population by
2015.

In 2007 – 2008 there were 1473 high school graduates in the district, of whom 483 enrolled as CR
students, which is 18.4% of the total graduation rate in the district. To project the annual number
of high school graduates enrolled in CR, a 50% persistence rate from fall to fall is assumed. CR
has targeted a 1% penetration rate increase per year, but as the charts and graphs indicate this
population growth is relatively flat and accounts for only 8.9% of the CR student body. This table
represents the number of high school graduates for 2006 and 2007 enrolled in CR the next fall.

                High School                   2006       2007
Eureka Senior High, Eureka                     128       164
Fortuna Union High, Fortuna                     82        87
McKinleyville High, Mc Kinleyville              52        66
Arcata High, Arcata                             57        58
Del Norte High, Crescent City                   35        44
Ferndale High, Ferndale                         9         17
Fort Bragg High, Fort Bragg                     25        14
St. Bernard High, Eureka                        4         11
East High (Continuation), Fortuna               9         7
Humboldt Bay High, Eureka                       3         3
Southern Trinity High, Bridgeville              0         3
Osprey Learning Center, Miranda                 0         3
Mattole Valley Charter (#159), Petrolia         6         2
Sunset High (Continuation), Crescent City       6         1
Pacific View Charter, Eureka                    1         1
Mattole Triple Junction High, Petrolia          0         1
Noyo High (Continuation), Fort Bragg            0         1
Total                                              417         483


                                                          2007     2008        2009     2010     2011     2012     2013     2014
                                                          2008     2009        2010     2011     2012     2013     2014     2015
District Population from 15-74 @ .85% per year           206226.9 207994.9      209778 211561.1 213359.4 215172.9 217001.9 218846.4
CR Students from HS + Persistence @50%                      691.5    724.5     735.015    723.3 733.635    776.16 797.295    794.16



   820                                                                               220000
   800                                                                               218000

   780                                                                               216000

   760                                                                               214000
                                                                                     212000
   740
                                                                                     210000        CR Students from HS +
   720                                                                                             Persistence @50%
                                                                                     208000
   700
                                                                                     206000
   680                                                                                             District Population from
                                                                                     204000
                                                                                                   15-74 @ .85% per year
   660                                                                               202000
   640                                                                               200000
   620                                                                               198000
            2007       2008       2009      2010     2011       2012   2013   2014
            2008       2009       2010      2011     2012       2013   2014   2015




                                                                          3
Ethnicity
The Hispanic and Native American populations are projected to increase by 2.5% per year.
Presently, the CR Hispanic student headcount is 720 or 2% of the District Hispanic population.
The CR Native American student headcount is 649 or 4% of the District Native American.

                            2008        2009       2010         2010         2011       2012      2013         2014        2015
Hispanic                     33598       34461      35324        36309        37294      38280     39265        40250       41235
Native American              15590       16151      16711        17240        17769      18297     18826        19355       19884


For this projection the CR Hispanic student headcount was increased .25% per year to 4% by 2015
and the Native American population was increased .25% per year to maintain the current
penetration rate.


                1800                                                                                       45000
                1600                                                                                       40000
                1400                                                                                       35000
                1200                                                                                       30000
                1000                                                                                       25000
                  800                                                                                      20000
                  600                                                                                      15000
                  400                                                                                      10000
                  200                                                                                      5000
                    0                                                                                      0
                          2007       2008     2009       2010         2011     2012     2013     2014
                          2008       2009     2010       2011         2012     2013     2014     2015

                                   CR Hispanic Headcount                CR NA Headcount
                                   District Hispanic Population         District AI Population




Adults over age 50
The District population over age 50 is expected to increase by 2.4% annually.
                                                 2007        2008        2009      2010      2011     2012        2013     2014
3. Increase Penetration Rate (1% per year)       2008        2009        2010      2011      2012     2013        2014     2015
CR Head Count (adults over 50)                        1142     1960        2813      3667      4551     5467        6414     7392
District Population over 50                          72605    75375       78144     79707     81270    82833       84396    85959
Penetration Rate                                      1.6%     2.6%        3.6%      4.6%      5.6%     6.6%        7.6%     8.6%


Presently 12% of the CR headcount is over age 50, 75% percent of which are taking one course or
1/5 FTES. The projection is based on a .25% increase in the penetration rate per year and with
each individual taking 1 course.




                                                                  4
Remaining CR Headcount
To project headcount until the 2014-2015 academic year, the remaining population less high
school students, Hispanic and Native American, and Adults over 50 was projected to increase by
.2% per year. Although populations do overlap, the necessary adjustments to the model are
determined to be insignificant.
                                      2007    2008    2009            2010        2011      2012      2013      2014      FTES
              FTES                    2008    2009    2010            2011        2012      2013      2014      2015    Coefficient
CR General                           3366.42 3423.42 3527.99         3693.37     3856.62 4022.18 4190.26 4356.68              0.554
HS Graduates                          397.72 420.73 418.26             419.98      438.27    454.53    457.38    465.88       0.575
Ethnic (Hispanic/American Indian)     758.43 849.75 923.55           1001.04     1081.26 1164.22 1249.90 1338.30              0.554
Adults over 50                        365.44 422.10 500.12             573.89      650.16    728.93    810.20    893.97       0.320
Total                                4888.00 5115.99 5369.92         5688.28     6026.31 6369.85 6707.73 7054.83
Target                                  4888    5193    5888             6388        6888      7388      7888      8388
Projected vs. Target                   0.00 (77.01) (518.08)         (699.72)    (861.69) (1018.15) (1180.27) (1333.17)



                                                  FTES Growth Composition

           10000.00                                                                10000
             9000.00                                                               9000
             8000.00                                                               8000
             7000.00                                                               7000     Adults over 50
             6000.00                                                               6000     Ethnic (Hispanic/American Indian)
             5000.00                                                               5000     HS Graduates
             4000.00                                                               4000     CR General
             3000.00                                                               3000     Target

             2000.00                                                               2000
             1000.00                                                               1000
                0.00                                                               0
                   2007    2008     2009   2010    2011   2012        2013      2014
                   2008    2009     2010   2011    2012   2013        2014      2015




                                                                 5
                                 Drivers or Strategies to fill the gap

Distance Education
From the 2006-2007 to 2007-2008 academic years, enrollment in distance education courses
increased 43%, from 60 sections to 86 sections, 67 of which were internet courses. CR offered
1816 sections in the 2007-2008 academic year, 4% of which were distance education. Distance
education sections are limited to 20% of the total sections offered.

Using the 2007-08 enrollment and the FTES generated by the 320 report, we calculated a
coefficient of .114. We multiplied the projected increase in enrollment by this coefficient to project
the resulting increase in FTES.

If CR continues the increase of distance education sections at 40% per year, the resulting increase
in FTES would fill the gap between the actual and targeted FTES.

                          2007      2008     2009      2010     2011     2012     2013     2014
                          2008      2009     2010      2011     2012     2013     2014     2015
Sections                       86       108      151       212      296      415      581      813
*Estimated Enrollment       1968       2628     3478      4869     6816     9543    13360    18703
Enrollment Baseline         1968       2068     2168      2268     2368     2468     2568     2668
Increased Enrollment            0       560     1310      2601     4448     7075    10792    16035
Increase in FTES @.114       0.00     63.84   149.29    296.47   507.08   806.50 1230.24 1828.03
Total FTES               224.352    299.592 396.4464   555.025 777.0349 1087.849 1522.988 2132.184




                                                  6
Increase Student Load
Another possible scenario is to increase distance education sections by 30% per year and also
increase student load. In 2008 Fall 68% of students took 6 units or less. If 1/6 of all students took
3 more units we projected an additional increase in FTES.

                                      2007    2008    2009          2010        2011        2012        2013        2014     FTES
              FTES                    2008    2009    2010          2011        2012        2013        2014        2015   Coefficient
CR General                           3366.42 3423.42 3527.99       3693.37     3856.62     4022.18     4190.26     4356.68       0.554
HS Graduates                          397.72 420.73 418.26           419.98      438.27     454.53      457.38      465.88       0.575
Ethnic (Hispanic/American Indian)     758.43 849.75 923.55         1001.04     1081.26     1164.22     1249.90     1338.30       0.554
Adults over 50                        365.44 422.10 500.12           573.89      650.16     728.93      810.20      893.97       0.320
Increase in DE                           0.00  63.84 120.98          220.02      352.19     527.43      758.66     1062.68       0.114
Increase in Student Load                 0.00 326.21 345.51          368.52      392.83     417.61      442.24      468.19       0.200
Total                                4888.00 5506.04 5836.41       6276.82     6771.33     7314.89     7908.63     8585.70
Target                                  4888    5193    5888           6388        6888       7388        7888        8388
Projected vs. Target                   0.00 313.04 (51.59)         (111.18)    (116.67)     (73.11)      20.63     197.70


                                               FTES Growth Composition

  10000.00                                                                                10000
   9000.00                                                                                9000
   8000.00                                                                                8000
                                                                                                      Increase in Student Load
   7000.00                                                                                7000
                                                                                                      Increase in DE
   6000.00                                                                                6000        Adults over 50
   5000.00                                                                                5000        Ethnic (Hispanic/American Indian)
   4000.00                                                                                4000        HS Graduates
   3000.00                                                                                3000        CR General
                                                                                                      Target
   2000.00                                                                                2000
   1000.00                                                                                1000
       0.00                                                                            0
          2007      2008      2009      2010     2011     2012          2013        2014
          2008      2009      2010      2011     2012     2013          2014        2015




                                                               7

				
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