Slides from Ben Page's presentation at Seizing Success 2009 by annieparksi

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									The State We’re In
Ben Page
Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI
ben.page@ipsos.com
Eight Real Trends

   Shaken security
      Breaking Britain
        Nostalgia & future of
          multiculturalism
                Green divide

               Class consciousness

                         Cautious self
                         development
                           Health & the body
                                beautiful
                                Time pressures, stress
                                    & impatience
                                 Job done????
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
                                                            Howard             Cameron        Brown
                               Labour’s second term -      becomes             becomes       becomes
                              pledge to improve failing   Tory Leader         Tory Leader      PM
 50         Introduction of      secondary schools
             means-tested                                              City academies
              tuition fees                                         introduced to combat
                                                                    entrenched failure in
 40                                                                 some urban schools                 Education and
                                                                                                  Inspections Bill limits the
                                                                                                    power of LAs to open
                                                                                                        new schools
 30

 20                                 Fuel
                                  Protests
                                                                        London
                                                                        Bombs
 10
                                                                                      Lowest score
                                                                                     since Dec 1985

  0
      May May May May May May May May May May May May May
      1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
           Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age
           18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home                  Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
 Job done?! Or the end of the “odd decade”
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
                                                                                                      Economy
 70

 60

 50
                                                                                                          Crime/
 40                                                                                                       Law &
                                                                                                          Order
 30                                                                                                          Race/
                                                                                                             immi-
                                                                                                            gration
 20

 10                                                                                                            NHS

                                                                                      Unemployment
  0
      May    May    May      May      May     May      May      May        May    May     May     May     May
      1997   1998   1999     2000     2001    2002     2003     2004       2005   2006    2007    2008    2009
               Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age
               18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home              Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
 You remain highly respected…..

Q Now I will read out a list of different people. For each, would you tell me
  whether you generally trust them to tell the truth or not?
Doctors                                                                92%
Teachers                                                             88%
Professors                                                        80%
Judges                                                          75%
Clergymen/Priests                                               75%
Scientists                                                    72%
Television newsreaders                                      66%
The Police                                                61%
Ordinary man/woman in street                            56%
Pollsters                                             51%
Civil servants                                       48%
Trade Union officials                             41%
Business leaders                            31%
Government Ministers                  22%              % Trust
Politicians generally                20%
Journalists                          19%
   Trust in professions


   % Trust them to tell the truth
  100
                                                                   Doctors
   90
   80                                                                         Teachers
   70
   60
   50
                                                        Ordinary man/woman in the street
   40
   30
   20                                            Gov’t ministers
   10                                                                        Journalists
    0
     83
     84

  19 5
     86

  19 7
     88
     89

  19 0
     91

  19 2
     93
     94

  19 5
     96
     97
     98
     99

  20 0
     01
     02
     03
     04

  20 5
     06
     8


     8



     9


     9



     9




     0




     0
  19
  19
  19


  19


  19



  19


  19
  19




  19


  19
  19
  19
  20


  20
  20
  20
  20
                                                 Year
Base: c.2000 British adults aged 15+ each year                             Source: Ipsos MORI
AND YET……..
 The rise of nostalgia


 % Strongly disagree    % Tend to disagree   % Tend to agree   % Strongly agree

People led happier        10
lives in the old days
                                                                     22
when they had fewer       27
problems to cope
with; I would like                                                  38
Britain to be the way
it used to be

                          29
                                                                    13
                           7                                         3
             1997       1999      2001       2003     2005     2007 2008 2009
Two thirds agree British society is
‘broken’
To what extent do you agree or disagree that British society is
broken?
                                    Don’t know
        Strongly disagree
                                            3%                Strongly agree
                    27%
                                      11%
                                                       35%                                Agree
Tend to disagree                16%                                          18-34           63%
                                                                             35-54           61%
                                   7%
                                                                             55+             64%
               Neither                       28%
                                                             63%             ABC1            61%
                                                                             C2DE            65%
                    Tend to agree
Base: 1,017 British adults 18+, 12-14 September 2008               Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  A majority think British teenagers need more
  discipline
     Young people today have too much freedom and not enough
     discipline
        % Strongly disagree    % Tend to disagree   % Tend to agree   % Strongly agree


            % Agree
                        35    40                                           40
15-29        72
30-49        85
50-64        91
65+          92
                        43
                               40                                          44
AB           84
C1           87
C2           87        17
DE           81               14
                        4       2                                           9
                                                                            1
                      1997     1999      2001       2003     2005       2008
                                                                      2007       2009
                                                    C




                                                                   0
                                                                       10
                                                                            20
                                                                                 30
                                                                                      40
                                                                                           50
                                                       yp
                                                           r
                                                     Fr us
                                                        a
                                                   Po nc
                                                       rt u e
                                                    G gal
                                                       re                                       in 2003
                                                           ec
                                                       M e
                                                           al
                                              Ne              ta
                                                 th Ita
                                                    er ly
                                                       la
                                                   Be nds




Source: IPPR, ‘Freedom’s Orphans’, 2007
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                                                  Li str
                                                                                                                                                                 High rates of teenage drunkenness




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                                                                                                Proportion of 15 year olds who had been drunk 20 times or more




                                                           ar
                                                               k
                            Are young people bad?
% level of concern about Anti –Social Behaviour
  60
  55
            R2=0.30                                                                     Newham
  50                                   Blyth Valley       Pendle    Hackney
  45
  40                             Torbay
                                                                                    Tower Hamlets
  35                  Arun
  30                                                                          Manchester
  25
  20
            Christchurch                                                Cambridge    Oxford
  15
  10                                                      Durham City
   5
                City of London       Mid Suffolk
   0
       20                  25             30                35              40                45
                           % population aged 25 and under
                Base: BVPI 2006 (387 local authorities)
 Better parenting is seen by many as a solution

 Parents should be made to take more responsibility for the behaviour
 of their children


        % Agree        % Strongly disagree      % Tend to disagree
15-29    84            % Tend to agree          % Strongly agree
30-49    95
50-64    95
65+      94       13        29                    64

AB       91
C1       95
C2       94
DE       88
A nation at ease with itself?
The problem of
happiness…..
What would make you happier?

Q Which four or five of the following things do you think would
  make you happier?
  More time with family                                                              37
  Earning double what I do                                                         35
  now
  Better health                                                             30
  More time with friends                                   23
  More travelling                                         22
  More time for leisure/sport                            21
  Better community spirit                              19
  Having a happy marriage                            17
  More contact with nature                          16
  Better housing                                   15
  Learning new skills                            13
  Moving abroad                                 12
  Moving jobs                         6
  More time to think/be alone        5
         Base: 2,015 interviewed face to face in home in GB aged 15 +, 20-25 Sept 2007
What would make you happiest?

%
                  Loads
60                more             More time
                  money            with my                    Better Health
50                                 family
40

30

20
                        More/better
10                      possessions
 0
15-24        25-34         35-44         45-54         55-64         65-74          75+
                                          Age

        Base: 2,015 interviewed face to face in home in GB aged 15 +, 20-25 Sept 2007
Leisure and relationships……

“If you want to be happy for a few
 hours, get drunk. If you want to
 be happy for a few years, get a
 wife. If you want to be happy
 forever, get a garden”
Traditional
Leisure and relationships

  77%       Satisfaction by frequency of gardening



             74%                                       74%
                        73%
                                  72%
                                             71%




 At least   At least   Several   Once a    Never/alm   Total
 once a     once a     times a   year or   ost never
  week      month        year     less
Do some sport……..

Life satisfaction by regularity of walking, swimming or playing
   76%                          sport

             74%
                        73%                             73%
                                  72%

                                             70%




 At least   At least   Several   Once a    Never/alm    Total
 once a     once a     times a   year or   ost never
  week      month        year     less
Get Married

    33%                                                % very happy
                           31%

                                                   25%


                                                                           16%




 Married                   Co-                   Single            Divorced/sep
                         habiting                                     arated

      Base: 2,015 interviewed face to face in home in GB aged 15 +, 20-25 Sept 2007
Get Qualified!!!!


     35%                                       % very happy
                          30%
                                               28%
                                                                     23%




 Degree or              A Levels              GSCE                   None
   PHd
  Base: 2,015 interviewed face to face in home in GB aged 15 +, 20-25 Sept 2007
….Avoid middle age and teenagers

 Taking all things together, would you say in general you are…

                            % Unhappy/ Very unhappy   % Very Happy


                             15-34          -3                31


                             35-54     -5                26


                             55-74          -2            29


                               75+      -4                 30
Base: 2013 British adults
The terror of teenagers!

  %
                Study 1              Study 2             Study 3             Study 4
 56
 55
 54
 53
 52
 51
 50
 49
 48
 47
 46
  Married     Child    Pre-school School Teenagers, First child Empty nest Empty next
  without    bearing    children, children, oldest 12-   gone to         to    to death of
  children              oldest 5 oldest 5-12    16     last leaving retirement     first
                                                         at home                 spouse
       “A leader is a dealer in
       hope”.



Napoleon Bonaparte
So do we help people do what they
                        want to??
    Most of us feel we have done ok

Q   Which of the following statements comes closest to how you feel your
    current or most recent job or occupation compares to what you really wanted
    or hoped to do when you were still at school? I am doing … than/to what I
    wanted or hoped to do back then.
                               Don’t know
                                                                           … exactly or something
                                                10%                            very close …

… something different                                                30%
    and worse …
                                    20%




                                        14%
    … something different                                     26%
        and better …                                                       … something different
                                                                            but as good as …

Base: 1,997 British adults, 22-26 June 2006, Ipsos MORI Omnibus for the Sutton Trust/the Treasury
                     Who didn’t do want they hoped for?

                                 Something different and worse
 All                                                                   20%


 ABs                                                    12%
 C1/C2s                                                              19%
 DEs                                                                                      30%


 No formal quals                                                             23%
 GCSE                                                                          24%
 A level                                                               20%
 Degree                                                       15%


Base: 1,997 British adults, 22-26 June 2006, Ipsos MORI Omnibus for the Sutton Trust/the Treasury
When you were at
school, what did
you really want or
hope to do?
  Aspirations are highly class related


    Something professional which you need a degree to do

 All (secondary school)                                                   22%


 ABs                                                                                                41%


 C1/C2s                                                          16%


 DEs                                                         13%

Base: 1,997 British adults, 22-26 June 2006, Ipsos MORI Omnibus for the Sutton Trust/the Treasury
How did you feel
about school?
           One in seven
         would describe
 their time at school as
“a negative experience
                 overall”
    My time at school

Q   Looking back to your time at school, would you describe it as … ?

                                           Don’t know

          A negative experience
                 overall                              1%
                                             13%



                                                                         47%           A positive
                                                                                   experience overall

     A mixed experience
     overall (sometimes               40%
     positive, sometimes
           negative)




Base: 1,997 British adults, 22-26 June 2006, Ipsos MORI Omnibus for the Sutton Trust/the Treasury
       The poorer you are the less you
       enjoyed school

                                 A negative experience overall
 All                                                      13%


 ABs                                             8%
 C1/C2s                                                   13%
 DEs                                                              17%


 No formal quals                                                                          30%
 GCSE                                                   12%
 A level                                             10%
 Degree                                          8%


Base: 1,997 British adults, 22-26 June 2006, Ipsos MORI Omnibus for the Sutton Trust/the Treasury
Families matter
My family are more important to me than my friends

                       % Strongly disagree                                      % Tend to disagree
                       % Tend to agree                                          % Strongly agree



          2     10                               32                                              48




Source: Ipsos MORI Real Trends, self-completion and online. Base: 2,019 British adults 16+, 9th May – 5th June 2008
… consistently more likely to divorce than
others…
      Divorces per
4    1,000 persons



3                                                                                                               UK

                                                                                                                        Germany
                                                                                                                   Sweden

2                                                                                                                 France
                                                                                          Netherlands               Poland
                                                                                                                                Spain

1
                                                                                                                      Italy


0
1996          1997          1998          1999           2000          2001           2002          2003           2004          2005
Source: Eurostat. The ratio of the number of divorces during that year to the average population in that year. The value is expressed
per 1,000 inhabitants
                                                                                                                             Bu
                                                                                                                               lg




                                                                                                                                            0%
                                                                                                                                                 10%
                                                                                                                                                       20%
                                                                                                                                                             % Yes
                                                                                                                            P o ar i a
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                                                                                                                       F e e rla e
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Ever been divorced – UK is top




                                                                                                                            er a y
                                                                                                                                m
                                                                                                                                                                     May I just check, have you ever been divorced?




                                                                                                                            F i an y
                                                                                                                               nl
                                                                                                                            E s and
Source: European Social Survey 2006 Scope: all persons aged 15 and over resident within private households.




                                                                                                                          H u t o ni
                                                                                                                                        a
                                                                                                                          D e ng a
                                                                                                                              nm r y
                                                                                                                                     ar
                                                                                                                                        k
                                                                                                                                     UK
Most want government to encourage marriage

 Do you think it is right or wrong for the government to encourage
 marriage?
                          % Right                                       % Wrong

                       All                               57                  35



                      AB                                   59                32

                      C1                               53                   39

                      C2                                   59                32

                      DE                                 57                  36
 Source: ICM opinion poll July 2007 on behalf of the Sunday Telegraph
Proportion cohabiting on the rise everywhere

 % ever lived with
40 a partner
39
38 unmarried
37
36
35                                                                                                        UK
34
33
32
31
30
29                                                                                               European average
28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
 2002                                                          2004                                            2006
Source: European Social Survey. Scope: all persons aged 15 and over resident within private households
Young especially relaxed…
Q: Do you agree or disagree? People who want children ought to
get married
             % Strongly disagree                 % Disagree    % Agree         % Strongly agree

  Overall                        8          22                           37                   14




  18-34                                16            32                             27             4

  35-54                          7          27                                31              12


  55+                         2 8                             52                         24

British Social Attitudes Survey 2002
UK does have lots of single parent families

  Percentage of young people living in single parent family
  structures, aged 11, 13 and 15: 2001

30%

20%

10%

0%




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  Source: UNICEF An overview of Child Wellbeing in rich countries, 2007
So what is to
be done by
government?
Quite divided over support for people with
children
Q.     Over the last ten years, people without children have paid
       more tax so families raising children can receive increased
       support. Do you support or oppose this policy?
                  No opinion             Strongly
                                         support
            Strongly          6%
             oppose 11%              13%
                                                                        Support
Oppose                                                                  43%
32%
          Tend to                                             Tend to
          oppose 21%                                      30% support



                                   19%
     Neither support nor
                oppose
                     Source: Ipsos MORI - Base 2,000 respondents
Punish bad parents?
Q. How strongly would you support or oppose the following:
‘Parents who fail to bring up their children properly should
lose eligibility for family payments’
                    No opinion
      Strongly Oppose                  6%                        Strongly Support

                            11%
                                                         27%


   Tend to oppose     15%



                              18%                       24%           Tend to support
      Neither support nor
      oppose
                        Source: Ipsos MORI – Base 2,000 respondents
Big challenges
for all of us in
the next
decade….
In conclusion…

 Can be proud of what we have achieved
 But not as much as we hoped, and the
 money’s running out
 Can you do more for society than just
 educate children?
 The public hope so…
 What do you want to be famous for?
Thanks
ben.page@ipsos.com

								
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