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					 An Introduction to Human Geography
      The Cultural Landscape, 8e
         James M. Rubenstein



     Chapter 2

Population
                                      PPT by Abe Goldman

                                                      1
Distribution of World Population
• Population concentrations
  – The four largest population clusters
  – Other population clusters

• Sparsely populated regions
  – Dry lands               – Cold lands
  – Wet lands               – High lands

• Population density
  – Arithmetic density
  – Physiological density
  – Agricultural density
                                           2
AP HG Ch 2 notes: (INTRO)
• Why important to study pop.:
  a) pop. = 6 ½ bill., more than ever before
  b) increase rate in 2nd 1/2 of 20th cent. faster
  than ever b4
  c) *almost all of global pop. growth is in
      LDC’s…where they have least resources
• demography: study of pop. characteristics:
  how pop. is distributed spatially by age,
  gender, fertility, health, occupation, etc.
• some problems = where is major pop. growth…
  why it is growing at differ. rates in differ. places
• overpopulation: # people in certain area & the
  ability of these people to have needed
  resources to live decently
                                                 3
               World Population Cartogram




This cartogram display countries by size of their population rather than
                                                                      4
their land area. (Only countries with 50 million or more people are named.)
The Earth at Night…
http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/image/0011/earthlights2_dmsp_big.jpg




                                                                  5
KEY 1: Pop distribution basically =
  concentration & density
Pop. Concentrations: 3/4 of people live on 5%
  of Earth's surface -----remember 71% of surf.
  = oceans, other areas are harsh
• 5 major concentr. = E. Asia, S. Asia, SE Asia,
  W. Europe, Eastern N. Amer.
• similarities.: most near water, low-lying, fert.
  soil, temperate (warm, but not hot)
• climate & all betw. 10º & 55º N lat. , except
  for parts of SE Asia
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

• Hectares: 10,000 sq meters or 2.47 acres
                                         6
1) East Asia #1 in pop. (China, Koreas, Japan,
  Taiwan): 1/4 world pop. here
• China: #1 in pop., #3 in land area; most on river
  valleys & coasts; 3/4 rural--most farmers
• Japan: most in Tokyo, Osaka…Korea: most in
  Seoul
• 3/4 of Japan. & S. Kor. = urban
  -most urban jobs in = industry or service
2) South Asia: #2 in pop.; (Pakistan, India,
  Bangladesh, Sri Lanka)
   --3/4 of this pop. in India
  -most on coast or along Indus & Ganges Rivers;
  1/4 cities most of pop. = rural farmers       7
   World
Population
Distribution

    World
    population
    is very
    unevenly
    distributed
    across the
    Earth‟s
    surface & it
    can be
    compared
    to climate
    distribution
    .


                   8
3) SE Asia: #4 pop.; (Islands: Java, Sumatra, Borneo,
  Pap. New Guinea, & Philippines, + Thailand, Vietnam,
  etc.)
   -Indonesia = 4th most pop. country;
      --most are farmers in rural areas
• In these 3 Asian areas = over 50% of world‟s pop. on
  only 10% of world's land
4) Europe: #3 pop.; 75% in cities; less than 20%
  farmers (many of farmers in S & E Eur.)
• Import most of food rather than produce
• This led to lots of colonization (Amer., India, China,
  Africa, etc.) looking for resources & these resources
  = lots of manufacturing
5) Eastern N. Amer.: #5; NE USA & SE Canada
• mostly urban… less than 5% = farmers              9
B) Sparsely pop. areas: too dry, wet, cold, high
 Ecumene: areas that are permanently settled
   --more were too harsh…innovations increase
  ecumene
1) dry lands: 20% of Earth's surface; most in deserts:
  Sahara,       Arabian, Gobi (N. Afr. SW & Centr. Asia)
        growing desert = desertification
 -little water for crops, etc., but many have oil
2) wet lands: too much rain; most = Equatorial rain
  forests: excess rain + excess heat = poor
  agricul….but can grow some rice
3) cold lands: area at & near N & S Poles; few plants &
  animals
4) high lands: highest mtns. = steep, snow-covered
-exceptions: parts of Latin Amer. & Africa where
  higher areas is better than lower hot/wet areas 10
Expansion
  of the
Ecumene
  5000
B.C.–A.D.
  1900
The
ecumene, or
the portion of
The Earth w/
permanent
human
settlement,
has
expanded
to cover
most of the
world‟s land
area.            11
C) Population density: look at it 3 ways… (Deja vu!!!)
1) arithmetic density (aka population density):
   -# people per unit of land…USA = 30 per sq. km. (77/sq
   mi)…but NY City (Manhattan) = 21,400/sq.km
   (55,400/sq.mi.)
2) Physiological density: # people per unit of arable land:
   is a more meaningful measure b/c can show pressure on
   the land due to population
    EX: Egypt: arithm. density = 70/sq.km; but
         physiolg. density = 3,503/sq. km
3) agricultural density: ratio farmers to arable land
   --lower agr. density = higher technology;
    -MDC's: usually lower agri. density, & LDC‟s usually
   higher;
  -in MDC‟s, lots of land & few farmers means more pop. to
   work in factories, etc.                              12
  Arithmetic Population Density




                 population density: # of ppl per total land
Fig. 2-4: Arithmetic
                                                           13
       area. Highest densities found in parts of Asia & Eur.
Physiological Density




                      density is the number of people per arable land area.
Fig. 2-5: Physiological
        This is a good measure of the relation between population and 14
        agricultural resources in a society.
       Distribution of World
        Population Growth
• Natural Increase (NIR)
• Fertility (TFR)
• Mortality (IMR + MMR)




                               15
KEY 2: Where Has World's Pop. Increased?
Important terms: (NOTE: crude means "basic", i.e., not
  specified by age, etc)
 a) crude birth rate (CBR): # live births per 1,000 per
  year:
   CBR = 20 means for every 1000 in a place, were 20
  births
 b) crude death rate (CDR) # deaths in year per 1,000
 c) natural increase rate (NIR): % by which a pop. grows
  in a year…change CBR & CDR to %'s…
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


• To calculate NIR: CBR - CDR = _____?____
• then divide by 1000 to get NIR
EX: CBR = 25 CDR = 10        25 – 10 = 15 NI per 1000
            ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Divide 15 by 1000 to get a % so it = 1.5% is NIR
                                                 16
     CBR = 40     CDR = 28      NIR = .012 = 1.2%
        World Population Growth
                                1950–2000




Fig. 2-6: Total world population increased from 2.5 to 6 billion in this half century. The
            natural increase rate peaked in the early 1960s and has declined since, but the
                                                                                           17
            number of people added each year did not peak until 1990.
Natural increase:
• Begin. of 21st cent., world NIR = 1.4; i.e., world
  pop. is growing yearly by 1.4 %: now over 6.7
  billion
   --pop. growth is down somewhat (was 77
  million in 2000; was 87 mil 1989)
 -doubling time: # yrs. it will take for pop. to
  double
    --at 1.4%, our doubling time is now 51 yrs
  -but in 1800 - 1950 to double…150 yrs.
As CBR goes up, doubling time goes down; CBR
  down, dbl. time up; are inversely proportional
NIR is over 2.0% in most of Africa, Lat. Amer., &
  Mid East (LDC‟s…ones who can‟t afford it) 18
 Natural
Increase
  Rates
**NIR is
negative in
Europe
…means
pop. is
declining if
you don't
count
immigrants
**Remember!    (NIR) = % of growth or decline in the pop. of a
"N" =                  country per year (not including net migration).
"natural")             Countries in Africa & SW Asia have highest
                       current rates; Russia & some European  19
                       countries have negative rates.
   Crude Birth Rates (CBR)




The crude birth rate (CBR) is the total # of births in a country per 1,000
       population per year. Lowest rates: in Europe.                    20

       Highest rates: Africa & several Asian countries.
B) fertility: use CBR to study fertility; many sub-
  Saharan countries = CBR 40, but many Eurp. = less
  than 10
 -total fertility rate (TFR): avg. # of kids a woman will
  have thru her child-bearing yrs (about 15-49)
   -look at map (49) w/spatial association: shows
    TFR
     -TFR over 6 in some Sub-Saharan countries!
C) mortality: one important way to measure & look
   at = CDR; another way is infant mortality rate
   -IMR = of every 1,000 live births, # kids die b4 1
     yr. old
  -usually use per 1000, not %…but sometimes = %
      -W. Eurp. = lowest IMR's (USA high for MDC)
      -in some LDC's = 100…which means 10%
                                                   21
         babies born alive die b4 1 yr. old
Total Fertility Rates (TFR)




The Total fertility rate (TFR) is the # of children an avg. woman
      in a society will have thru her childbearing years.
      Lowest rates: Europe. Highest: Africa & parts of22
      Middle East.
Infant Mortality Rates (IMR)




The infant mortality rate: # of infant deaths per 1,000 live
       births per year. Highest: found in some of the poorest23

       countries of Africa & Asia.
• IMR: strong indication of a country's health-care
  system. Why? (When I ask you “why?”, etc., you
  need to KNOW this!)
   -though USA = MDC, IMR higher than Canada &
  most Euro. countries….Why?
• life expectancy: calculated at kid‟s birth…means
  that child has a 50/50 chance of reaching a
  particular age
   -again, high in W. Eur. , low in sub-Saharan Afr.
 -MDC's: lower CBR's, TFR's, & IMR's…but higher
 life expectancy
 -LDC's: high CBR, TFR, & IMR, but low life expect.
 -CDR doesn‟t have as wide a spread as CBR: 20 vs.
 40 & LDC's actually bit lower than MDC's (p. 51)
                                                  24
 -this contradiction due to demographic transition
Avg. Life Expectancy at birth




Life expectancy at birth: Avg. # of years a newborn infant can
       expect to live. Highest: generally in the wealthiest25
       countries. Lowest: in the poorest countries.
 Crude Death Rates (CDR)




The crude death rate (CDR): total # of deaths in a country per
       1,000 population per year. B/C wealthy countries are in
       a late stage of the demographic transition, they often
                                                          26
       have a higher CDR than poorer countries!!!!!
27
KEY 3: Demographic Transition:
  Why pop. increases at differ. rates in differ.
  places at differ. times
 A) Demographic Transition: countries go thru 4
  stages involving changes in CBR, CDR, & NIR
   -every country at 1 stage or another…& it is
  progressive: once go into a stage, you don't go
  back… so far
Stage 1: low growth: hi CBR, hi CDR, NIR about
  zero
 -in earliest humans, most all = same stage; CBR
  & CDR might vary from year to year, but hi on
  avg.
 -most all = hunter/gatherers for about 392,000 yrs.

                                               28
1st agricultural revolution: 8,000 BCE:
  happened in various places & pop. grew
  faster
Agri-Revol.: When humans began to grow
  foods & domesticate animals…
 No longer move & scrounge as they had b/c
  they had stable food sources
Still stayed basically at Stg 1 Low
  growth…for about another 10,000 yrs.
   -still problems w/ climate (famine), wars,
  disease, etc
                                         29
Stage 2: hi growth: hi CBR, lowering CDR, hi NIR
 Stg 2 comes in 2 sections:
   -2-a) pop. growth getting faster…….
   -2-b) growth slowing, but CBR/CDR gap still hi

 Innovation: a new idea or new way of doing
 something; can be technology or can be
 philosophical ideas
  -1750: Britain was 1st to come into Stg. 2 b/c
   was 1st w/ Industrial Revolution
 Later spread thru W. Europe……then USA

                                              30
Process of improv.:
 a) indust. techn. (steam eng., mass
    production, RR, later transportation
    innovations)
 b) brought wealth….which brought
    health innova., sanitation, hygiene,
    sewers, etc…= healthier… which
    means…less disease
   (Why did they improve these?)
 c) + food production w/ less labor = laborers
      for other jobs
    …also health + food  higher life expect. 31
Other Eur. countries & USA didn‟t hit Stg 2 til
 about 1800
 -Stg. 2 didn’t diffuse to most of Africa, Asia,
 & Lat. Amer. til about 1950…& then world
 pop. climbed!
*USA & Eur. moved to stg 2 b/c of industr./tech rev.,
BUT…others (Afr., Lat. Am., etc.) moved to
 stg 2 b/c of medical revolution in mid-20th
 cent.
This meant improved med. practices = less
 diseases, less hardship = longer life &
 healthier life…(rid of TB, malaria, smallpox,
 etc.) = more having babies….              32
Stage 3: moderate growth: CBR, CDR both
 lower
  -CBR still higher than CDR, so pop. grow
 but not so fast
   -CDR dropping, but not as sharp as stg 2
    -most Eur. & N. Amer countries from
     stg 2  stg 3 in early 20th century…
   --most Asian/Lat. Amer. recent
    -but most African still in stg 2
Why do we move to stg 3?
B/C ppl choose to have _____?____ WHY?
                                  33
 a) more babies survive (lower ___? __)
  b) less agric.--need less kids
  c) more in cities…less “chores” use for kids
-when Child Labor laws cut out factory jobs, kids
 no longer bring in $$..school required = more $$
  d) urban homes = less avg. space = crowded
Stage 4: Low growth: CBR about = CDR
      --NIR approaching 0 = ZPG
    --ZPG can happen even if CBR bit higher
  than CDR: b/c some girls won‟t reach fertil.:
   -so 2.1 TFR can = ZPG, unless lots of
      immigrants
  --most W. European countries in stg 4 &
 well below 2.1 TFR‟s                    34
  The Demographic Transition Model




The demogra. trans. in 4 stages:
 -1st hi B & D 2nd -- then D rates declines
   3rd -then in B rates decline
  4th --then low B & D rates. BUT pop. highest in Stg 4
                                                    35
Pop. growth is most rapid in the 2nd stage.
• D-T Model w/ explanations, details…\Remember that
  D-T model looks at GROWTH rate (NIR) more than
  total population.




                                                36
--in USA, not quite at stg 4 b/c of
  diversity of pop.
    -Lat-Americans & Af-Americans have
  higher TFR‟s; but Eur-Amer. tend to
  have TFR‟s more like Euro.
--social customs also enter in ? of stages…
  EX: families on farms: mom stays home &
  dad works at home & they have more
  kids…hands to work chores
  -as more women go to work & as families
  more in urban areas, have less kids

                                         37
Some E. Eur. countries have negative NIR b/c CDR
 higher than CBR…this is 1 of results of old
 communist system
 1) CDR there result of hi pollution (few controls)
 2) CBR result of strong fam.-planning…&
 3) pessimism… (Why bring kids to this?)

-may change later…but if not could have a Stg 5…

Note: a) at begin. of Stg 1, CBR & CDR both high
          (about 35- 40 per 1,000
          --at Stg 4, both low (+ - 10/1000)
      b) BUT…total pop. in Stg 4 much higher
            than it is in Stg 1               38
England= good EX: of demog. trans. & stages:
 WHY? Has good info for last 1000 yrs (kept records early), stable
  history & boundaries, & not lots of migration earlier to affect
  pop.
Stg 1) low growth til 1750: b4 this pop. up & down... (Black
  Death dropped pop. in 1300‟s, famine, etc.)
Stg 2) hi growth: 1750-1880: CBR still hi, but CDR lowering
  -techn. innova. = more food, more $$$ invested in
  health…..stayed stg. 2 about 125 yrs
Stg 3) Mod. Growth: 1880-early 1970‟s
   -sharp CBR drop from 33 to 15; CDR fell some…19 to 12
Stg 4: Lo growth: early „70‟s to now:
 --CBR betwn. 12-14 & CDR betwn 10-12
Engl. pop. grown about 1 mill. since 1970, BUT mainly thru
  immigration…NOT natural increase
                                                           39
 Demographic Transition in England




England was one of the first countries to experience rapid
      population growth in the mid-eighteenth century, when
                                                         40
      it entered stage 2 of the demographic transition.
Note that in England CBR & CDR dropped from
   about 40 to about 12
      (stg. 1  stg.4)
   --but pop. up from 6 mill. (stg.1) to 50 mil (stg4)
B) Population pyramids: use age & gender to show
   pop. w/in 5 yr. age groupings
      (youngest = 0 – 4yrs at pyramid base)
  -gives info RE: M vs. F & groups that might have
   specific needs or indications…
 Pyramid Shape comes mainly from the CBR of
   the community
Stg. 2 country: Hi CBR w/ lot of kids so wide base
Stg. 4: larger older pop., wider top
                                                 41
1) age distribution: age structure of pop. is
  important
  -dependency ratio: # of those too old or too
  young to work, so they depend a lot on the other
  part of the pop.
-divide pop. in 3 sections…0-14, 15-64, 65- & older
  -about 1/3 under 15 in Stg. 2, LDC‟s

 In stg. 4 countries, only about 1/3 = dependent
  -only about 1/5 under 15 in those MDC‟s at or
 near stg 4
  -large % of kid pop. = strain on resources for
 schools, health care, daycare, etc.
                                              42
% of Pop. under 15 (part of the ___?__ ratio)




About 1/3 of world population is under 15, but the % by
country varies: Most of Africa + some Asian: Over 40%
                                                          43
                Much of Europe: Under 20%
In stg 4, ppl 65+ are larger % than in stg. 2 b/c longer
   life expectancy (see p. 58…lower rt. fig.)
-in Europe over 65 = > 15%, but sub-Sahr.Africa = < 2%
 -is called the “graying” of the pop. (Eur. & N.Am.)
   -this can make CDR of stg 3 & 4 countries higher
   than stg 2
2) sex ratio: # of males per 100 females w/in pop.
   -more males born than females…but males have
   higher death rates
  -Eur. & N. Amer, sex ratio = 95:100; rest of world =
   102:100
   -in US, M vs. F under 15 yrs: 105:100
    -at about 30, more F …& by 65, F = 60% of pop.
   -migration affects sex ratio: males more likely to
   migrate, so if hi immigration rates, usually more
   males
                                                    44
1) View pyramids on p. 63…make notations
  about shapes & why they have a specific
  shape
2) Study the 3 examples of countries in various
  stages of transi. Make notes about WHY
  each has the shape it has…




                                          45
Population Pyramids in U.S. Cities




    Fig. 2-16: Population pyramids can vary greatly, with different fertility rates (Laredo vs.
                Honolulu), or among military bases (Unalaska), college towns (Lawrence), and
                                                                                                46
                retirement communities (Naples).
Copy items below & answer:
a) Cape Verde: Stg 2 hi growth…
  --possible reasons why?
  --major problems?

b) Chile: Stg 3: moderate growth…
  --poss. reason why?
  --major problems?

c) Denmark: Stg 4 low growth:
 --poss. reasons why?
 --major problems?
                                    47
   Rapid Growth in Cape Verde




Fig. 2-17: Cape Verde, which entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in about
            1950, is experiencing rapid population growth. Its population history reflects
            the impacts of famines and out-migration.

                                                                                             48
        Moderate Growth in Chile




Fig. 2-18: Chile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the 1930s, and it
            entered stage 3 in the 1960s.

                                                                                      49
         Low Growth in Denmark




Fig. 2-19: Denmark has been in stage 4 of the demographic transition since the
            1970s, with little population growth since then. Its population pyramid
            shows increasing numbers of elderly and few children.
                                                                                      50
One is the EU, one Asia, one a retirement community




                                               51
52
D) Demographic trans. & world pop. growth (p. 62)
2nd half of 20th century world pop. zoomed b/c few
    countries were in the 2 stgs. w/ slower pop growth
    which are what?? (___ & ____
 Most were into 2nd (hi) or 3rd (moderate)
 Some seem stuck in 2nd…maybe 3rd….
 To move to 3rd or 4th need 2 big "break-aways" from
    the past…
1. Techn. innovations
2. Changing social customs that allow for drop in CBR
  -almost all are getting the techn. innov. (agric.,
    medicine, etc.) that brings the drop in CDR
 --but many slow to alter customs that keep CBR high
  --resist situations that foster birth control measures
   -keeps many from moving to Stg. 3… & then to 4th 53
Major difference betwn. Eur. & N-Amer. & those now in Stg.2:

 Eur & N. Am. went thru Indust. Rev. on way to 3rd or 4th
 so…econ. changes 1st  more $$$  more improvements
   social changes  stg 3 ….then 4
 Today's LDC's: Stg. 2 came from outside investment…
    …little/no investment of their own
Good EX: Sri Lanka: from 1946 to 1947, CDR dropped 43%
  b/c internat. organizations supplied them w/ DDT
  (insecticide)
 -sent DDT… trained S-L ppl to spray for mosquitoes …
   …reduced malaria deaths
CDR dropped…but no econ. advances
   -had MORE ppl…no more $$ or technol. revolutions
So…same economy & customs….but w/ hi CBR (& less
  dying) …so way more ppl…w/o jobs
                                                        54
Eur. & N. Amer.:
Took about 100+ yrs to go from stg 2  3
Today's LDC's:
Tough to get to stgs. 3 or 4 w/o the time Eur/N. Amer had
  to devel. & adjust
Many Asian + Lat. Amer. LDC's now have moved to stg 3
  ….now have a declining pop. (EX: Chile)
But Africa has not made this break w/ the past &…hasn‟t
  moved forward…
WHY?? MANY reasons…involving…
 -History          -Customs         -Disease
 -Geography       -Women            -Climates

B/C of these…
Some African countries MAY become 1st to go BACK to
  Stg. 1… which has never happened b4           55
K- 4: Why world may face overpopulation problems:

Thomas Malthus
English economist, 1798 theory said the world would run
  out of food in the future due to several factors:
 pop. was increasing faster than food production
 predicted a great famine about 100 yrs from then (1798)
 his theory: pop. increases geometrically (X) but food
  production increases arithmetically (+) So….
…1 person to 1 food unit…2 to 2…4 to 3…8 to 4…16 to 5...

Engl. was in Stg 2 of demogr. trans. b/c of Industr. Rev.
 -Malthus said ppl needed "moral restraint“ (??) to
  control CBR…unless war, famine, diseases, or other
  disasters increased CDR
                                                    56
In Malthus' day, MDC's had the increasing pop…not
  LDC's as it is now…(LDC‟s were still Stg. 1)
Later ppl didn't think about LDC's gaining from med.
  techn., but not from wealth & that pop. would
  snowball

Now have “Neo-Malthusians”…who say Malthus was
  right …but missed part …
 Say we‟ll have shortages of clean air, water, suitable
  farmland, food AND fuel resources
Said these would = civil violence & wars in future b/c
  of conflict over resources
Though Africa has increased econ. devel., increased
  pop. more, so econ. growth hasn‟t helped
                                                  57
  --worse off than 1-2 decades ago
Critics of Malthus: various arguments against his
  ideas…
 Engels said M.'s idea were capitalistic…
   -said world has resources for all…but are
  unequally distributed…& some use more than their
  share
Others say pop. growth can stimulate food prod.:
Growth = more customers & encourages more
  techno. growth
Others say Malthus is too pessimistic b/c he assumed
  food supply is fixed…& doesn‟t allow for the
  principles of _?_:
    -ppl choose to expand food & other resources
                                               58
Last 50 yrs. have not supported Malthus‟
  ideas…b/c…
1) food prod. is up b/c of techn…grow more faster
  -new techniques, new strains of rice, etc., = better
2) pop. growth increased, but food prod. grew faster
3) we do have problems w/ those who can't afford or
  get access to food
 -but these are distribution problems, not inability to
  produce (which is the NEWER theory)
4) also Mal.'s predictions of global growth were off
   -said by 2000 would be 10 billion but only 6.7 bill.
5) he didn‟t foresee cultural, econ. & tech. changes
   -didn't see the demogr. transition Stgs. 3 & 4 59
Food Population, 1950–2000Malthus vs. Actual Trends


Malthus:
Said pop.
would grow faster
than food
Production

But …
food production
expanded
faster than
pop. in the 2nd half
of the 20th century.


                                               60
SO…How do we reduce NIR??
Even if Malthus was wrong about pop. situation there are areas
   w/ these problems
Those in stg 2 (hi growth) can reduce 1 of 2 ways…

 1) go back to stg 1: higher CDR more equal to CBR
 2) move to stg 3 or 4 by lowering CBR to the CDR

1) Higher CDR: could come from spread of disease esp. AIDS
    -95% of AIDS deaths are in LDC's!
  Africa: more than 2 mill. per yr….esp. southern
      -Botswana, Namibia, Zambia, & Zimbabwe:
          -1/5 of all deaths there caused by AIDS…
          -25% of pop. is infected
   -CDR here rose in '90's from 13 to 21…
     -life expect. dropped from 55 yrs. to 40 yrs.
Higher CDR could push Africa back to stg 1 Demog. trans.
                                                      61
Other diseases in other LDC's may lead to higher CDR
1/3 of kids‟ deaths in most LDC's is from poor sanitation &
 its results ..like dysentery (diarrhea = dehydration = death) & other
   infections
Another 1/3 die from diseases MDC-kids don't get b/c of
immunizations: EX: measles, polio, TB, diphtheria, tetanus,etc




                                                                62
            Tuberculosis Death Rates, 2000




TB death rate: an indicator of country‟s ability to invest in health
 care …It‟s still 1 of the world‟s largest infectious-disease killers.
                                                               63
HIV/AIDS Prevalence Rates, 2002




Highest HIV infection rates are in sub-Saharan Africa. India &
China have large numbers of cases, but lower infection rates (%)
                                                            64
Epidemiological Transition: 4 stages:
Stage 1: Stage of pestilence & famine: nature’s way of
  holding pop. in check (EX: Black Plague)
Stg 2: stg. of receding pandemics: #’s lessen, but still
  in crowded areas        (EX: Cholera in large cities)
Stg. 3 & 4: steady decrease in infectious diseases
 ...but increase in chronic degenerative & human-created
  diseases EX’s: cancers & cardiovascular-disease
    (smoking, diet, pollution, etc.)…age related
Stg. 5? MAYBE.. return to infectious & parasitic disease?
     3 reasons:
  1-evolution of drug resistant microbes
  2-poverty in LDC’s
  3- Increased travel & exposure                        65
So…1 way to adjust = higher CDR…not too nice ..A better way?
2) lower birth rates: v. few want to see pop. contained by
   higher CDR… lowering CBR is better choice…
2 ways to lower CBR: Long-run method + short-run method
a) Long-run method: economic development alternative:
   Changes in society…
 Wealthier = more able to spend $$ on educat. & health-
   care…promotes lower CBR
One key: women: women in school have more
   opportunities & choices, better control of lives…dollar-
   wise & reproductive-wise
Better health-care = lower IMR & women more likely to have
   less kids cause know kids likely to survive
b) But in short run: Distribute of birth con. methods:
  Putting resources into family planning methods in LDC's =
   a quicker way to drop CBR
LDC‟s demand for B-C is greater than the supply
   -We need to get more out there quickly & cheaply 66
Bangladesh: W. using contraceptives: 1975: 6% ... 2000: 50%
    Now in many LDC's 2/3 of W use bir. contr.
But in Africa (& parts of Asia) only about 1/4 use…
Why? Women: low status…little/no education or econ. control
 -- W‟s hi-status comes from hi # of kids
 --Also gives M hi-status b/c shows virility & power
 --Some cultures view birth control use against their religious
  or political beliefs
Many religions disapprove of some or all B-C devices:
  including some of these…. (usually fundamentalists of the relig..)
 -Roman Catholics                      -Muslims
 -fundamentalist Protestants           -Hindus
Last 8 yrs.: US govt. has withheld $$ for all B-C in many LDC‟s
  b/c of a possibility of abortion…even if only for mother‟s life,
  etc. …Big political issue in US
Pres. Obama has overturned this policy already
Most experts agree controlling CBR is best way, but LDC's &
 international family planning organizations have limited $$$
                                                        67
 to make it a reality
Use of
Family
Planning




Both the
extent of
family
planning
 use
& the
methods
used vary
widely by
country &
culture.
            68
  Crude Birth Rate Decline, 1981–2001




CBR‟s declined in most countries between 1981 & 2001
                                                           69
 (BUT…the # of births per year increased from 123 to 133 mill.).
Cholera
in
London,
1854
 By mapping the
distribution of
cholera cases &
water pumps
 in Soho, London,
Dr. John Snow
identified the
source
 of the waterborne
epidemic.
                     70
SARS
Infections in
China, 2003
China had 85 %
of the world's
SARS cases in
2003.
In China, the
infection was
highly clustered
in Guangdong
Province,
Hong Kong,
& in Beijing.

                   71
                         72
Historical Pop. growth
NIR graph




            73
Growth since Industrial Revolution & Projected thru 2050
                                                    74
75
Population
pyramid for
Williamsburg,
  VA

WHY???




                76
Get into groups: What can these pyramids tell you??



A                 B-1, B-2, B-3       C-1,      C-2




                                                  77
78
79
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posted:7/13/2011
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