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Challenges in the grid Connection of Wave Energy Devices - PowerPoint

VIEWS: 29 PAGES: 21

									Economics forum on Marine renewable Energy – June 13th 2011    Charles Parsons Energy Research



Weather window analysis
for ocean energy devices:
case study off the west
coast of Ireland

                                                      Dr. Gordon Dalton
                                                      HMRC, UCC, Ireland
                                                      Charles Parsons research fellow
                                                      and
                                                      Michael O’Connor

                                                              Hydraulics & Maritime
                             National Ocean Test Facility          Research Centre
                                                                        hmrc.ucc.ie
Economics forum on Marine renewable Energy – June 13th 2011    Charles Parsons Energy Research




     Case study objectives
 1. Quantify the levels of access due to weather
    windows that exist off the west coast of Ireland
    for offshore wind and wave energy.
 2. Implications for installation and
    operations/maintenance;
     Technical impacts
     Economic impacts



                                                              Hydraulics & Maritime
                             National Ocean Test Facility          Research Centre
                                                                        hmrc.ucc.ie
Economics forum on Marine renewable Energy – June 13th 2011    Charles Parsons Energy Research


 What is a weather window?
  A weather window occurs when a weather
   forecast indicates that a given set of marine
   operations can be performed within their
   maximum limits of their appropriate constraint: i.e.
   wave height in this case study.
  Weather windows are dependant:
      Time needed: eg 6 hours etc
      Wave height for Access:
       1m



                                                              Hydraulics & Maritime
                             National Ocean Test Facility          Research Centre
                                                                        hmrc.ucc.ie
Economics forum on Marine renewable Energy – June 13th 2011      Charles Parsons Energy Research

                Wave height max for access for
                        Offshore Repairs
                          Transport Type            Wave Height Wind      Speed
                                                    Limit Hs    Limit m/s
  Wave Energy             Conventional              Assumed to be
  Converter               Vessel                    1m or less.
  Offshore Wind           Conventional              1.5m               12 m/s
  Turbine                 Vessel
                          Helicopter Transfer       Not Applicable     15 m/s
                          Catamaran                 1.5 – 2.0m         12 m/s

                          SWATH Vessel              2.5m               12m/s

                          Ampelmann                 3.0m

                                                              Hydraulics & Maritime
                             National Ocean Test Facility          Research Centre
                                                                        hmrc.ucc.ie
Economics forum on Marine renewable Energy – June 13th 2011     Charles Parsons Energy Research


          Max wave height for Onshore repairs
      Maintenance not-involving personnel transfers (device
    brought ashore or maintained aboard large support vessel)


                            Vessel           Wave           Wind speed
                                             height
       Offshore             Tender           2.5m           8-10 m/s
       Navigation or        Vessel
       Data Buoys
       Wave Energy          Tug              2.0m           Not Applicable unless
       Converter                                            Maintenance involves
       (Pelamis)                                            cranes


                                                               Hydraulics & Maritime
                             National Ocean Test Facility           Research Centre
                                                                         hmrc.ucc.ie
Economics forum on Marine renewable Energy – June 13th 2011     Charles Parsons Energy Research



Case study location
  Years 2003 - 2005
  Data obtained from
   HMRC and Marine
   Institute (MI).
  Data Location – M1&M3
   Buoy, 50 km off west                                M1&M3
                                                       Buoy
   coast of Ireland, 150m
   depth.



                                                               Hydraulics & Maritime
                             National Ocean Test Facility           Research Centre
                                                                         hmrc.ucc.ie
Economics forum on Marine renewable Energy – June 13th 2011    Charles Parsons Energy Research



          Wave energy economic model -
                   NAVITAS
    Model created in HMRC and funded by Charles
     Parson award for post-doctoral research.
    Two stage assessment:
       Resource assessment.
       Economic feasibility analysis using standard
        economic indicators.




                                                              Hydraulics & Maritime
                             National Ocean Test Facility          Research Centre
                                                                        hmrc.ucc.ie
Economics forum on Marine renewable Energy – June 13th 2011                         Charles Parsons Energy Research



   Results- Average power in the wave
                                                                                               M1
                                                                                               M3
          Average Hourly Wave Power (kW/m)


                                             70

                                             60

                                             50

                                             40

                                             30

                                             20

                                             10

                                              0
                                                  2003                 2004            2005

  M1, 20% stronger wave power than M3, 2 out of 3 years.
  M1, 45% variation in wave power between 2003 and 2004.
                                                                                   Hydraulics & Maritime
                                                    National Ocean Test Facility        Research Centre
                                                                                             hmrc.ucc.ie
Economics forum on Marine renewable Energy – June 13th 2011                      Charles Parsons Energy Research




     Annual mean exceedance
                                                                                                 M3
                                                                                                 M1
                          100%
                           90%
           % Exceedance


                           80%
                           70%
                           60%
                          50%
                          40%
                          30%
                          20%
                          10%
                           0%
                                 0   1     2    3     4    5      6     7   8      9   10   11        12
                                                               Hs (m)


  70 % of the wave height incidence is above 2.0m
  In general M1 has higher waves than M3.
                                                                                Hydraulics & Maritime
                                         National Ocean Test Facility                Research Centre
                                                                                          hmrc.ucc.ie
Economics forum on Marine renewable Energy – June 13th 2011                                Charles Parsons Energy Research



 Wave heights as a % of total wave regime
           Percent of total wave regime (%)
                                                                                                 M3    M1
                                              4%

                                              3%

                                              2%

                                              1%

                                              0%
                                                   0      2            4              6      8          10


                                                                           Hs (m)

  Greatest frequency of wave height between 1m-3m.
  M3 slightly lower peak wave height frequency than M1
                                                                                          Hydraulics & Maritime
                                                       National Ocean Test Facility            Research Centre
                                                                                                    hmrc.ucc.ie
Economics forum on Marine renewable Energy – June 13th 2011                              Charles Parsons Energy Research




     Accessibility - % of the year
                                       100%
        Year round accessibility (%)


                                       80%


                                                                                               NorthSea 37km
                                       60%
                                                                                               North Sea 100km
                                                                                               M2 Irish Sea

                                       40%                                                     M1 71km
                                                                                               M3 36 km


                                       20%



                                        0%
                                              1m        1.5m           2m         2.5m




  Irish and North Sea worst case scenarios (Hs 1m) = to the best case
   scenario (Hs 2.5m) off the west coast of Ireland. 45%

                                                                                    Hydraulics & Maritime
                                                   National Ocean Test Facility          Research Centre
                                                                                              hmrc.ucc.ie
Economics forum on Marine renewable Energy – June 13th 2011           Charles Parsons Energy Research



Hours of wave height below limit for M1
           700

           600                                                                    Annual    % of
                                                                                  hours     year
           500
                                                                            1m        210          2%
                                                              1m
   Hours




           400                                                             1.5m      1130      13%
                                                              1.5 m
                                                              2m            2m       2380      27%
           300
                                                              2.5 m        2.5m      3880      45%
           200

           100

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                                                                Hydraulics & Maritime
                             National Ocean Test Facility            Research Centre
                                                                          hmrc.ucc.ie
Economics forum on Marine renewable Energy – June 13th 2011         Charles Parsons Energy Research

             Accessibility and
       % occurrence by window length
                                    M1                       Columbia River Bar


               2.5     43%      41%      38%      31%        62%    61%     58%    53%

     Hs
     (m)          2    26%      24%      21%      15%        45%    45%     42%    36%


               1.5     12%      10%        9%       5%       25%    24%     21%    14%

                  1     2%       2%        1%       0%       5%      4%      3%      1%

                          6       12        24       48        6      12      24     48


                                                                   Hydraulics & Maritime
                              National Ocean Test Facility              Research Centre
                                                                             hmrc.ucc.ie
Economics forum on Marine renewable Energy – June 13th 2011                     Charles Parsons Energy Research




     Annual Number of Windows
                                   70

               Number of windows   60

                                   50
                                                                            At least 6 hours long
                                   40                                       At least 12 hours long
                                                                            At least 24 hours long
                                   30
                                                                            At least 48 hours long
                                   20

                                   10

                                   0
                                        1m      1.5m       2m       2.5m



  At 2.5m limit, many windows, even at 48 hours long
  At 1m limit, only 8 windows for 6 hour window and
   zero for 48 hour window
                                                                             Hydraulics & Maritime
                                             National Ocean Test Facility         Research Centre
                                                                                       hmrc.ucc.ie
Economics forum on Marine renewable Energy – June 13th 2011                 Charles Parsons Energy Research



     Weeks between windows
                               60


                Number weeks   50


                               40
                                                                        At least 6 hours long
                                                                        At least 12 hours long
                               30
                                                                        At least 24 hours long
                                                                        At least 48 hours long
                               20


                               10


                                0
                                    1m       1.5m      2m      2.5m



  At 2.5m limit, short wait, 10 weeks, even at 48 hours long
  At 1m limit, 30-40 week wait, 6-24 hour window. 3 years
   or more for 48 hour window
                                                                         Hydraulics & Maritime
                                         National Ocean Test Facility         Research Centre
                                                                                   hmrc.ucc.ie
Economics forum on Marine renewable Energy – June 13th 2011    Charles Parsons Energy Research



   Conclusion for 1m wave height

      Accessibility 2% of the year, compared to 40% in Irish
       sea and North Sea.
      80 hours total access in summer, 0 in winter.
      < 10 windows per year, 6 hour window or greater.
      > 30 week wait between windows, 6 hour window or
       greater.




                                                              Hydraulics & Maritime
                             National Ocean Test Facility          Research Centre
                                                                        hmrc.ucc.ie
Economics forum on Marine renewable Energy – June 13th 2011    Charles Parsons Energy Research


   Implications for O/M
 1. Devices will need to have:
     wave height access limits as high as possible,
     O/M duration as short as possible and
     time between maintenance as long as possible.
 2. If possible, devices exchanged and repaired onshore
    rather than maintaining devices offshore.
 3. Greater improvement is achieved by increasing access
    limit over decreasing O/M duration.
 4. If the advanced access system such as the Ampelmann
    could be used, it would raise access limit to 2.5 to 3m.


                                                              Hydraulics & Maritime
                             National Ocean Test Facility          Research Centre
                                                                        hmrc.ucc.ie
Economics forum on Marine renewable Energy – June 13th 2011    Charles Parsons Energy Research




 Future research work – Resource

         Period, wind speed, tidal flow, freezing
          temperatures
         Comparison to Portugal and Scotland




                                                              Hydraulics & Maritime
                             National Ocean Test Facility          Research Centre
                                                                        hmrc.ucc.ie
Economics forum on Marine renewable Energy – June 13th 2011    Charles Parsons Energy Research


 Future research work - economics
         Rigorous assessment of installation and O/M
          costs and impact of weather windows on
          COE and NPV
         At present costs for installation and O/M are
          calculated approximately as either:
             % of Capex
             A nominal €/kWh based on other work.




                                                              Hydraulics & Maritime
                             National Ocean Test Facility          Research Centre
                                                                        hmrc.ucc.ie
Economics forum on Marine renewable Energy – June 13th 2011    Charles Parsons Energy Research


 Methodology Installation &O/M
     Installation: Economic impacts are through
         Extended vessel and person hire
         Delay in start of energy production
     O/M: Economics impacts are due to:
         on number of hours required for scheduled
          and unscheduled O/M, downtime and
          consequent loss of energy production.
         Costs: Barges, vessels, cranes etc.
         Costs: Materials, spares etc
         Person hours
         Hours available for the job
                                                              Hydraulics & Maritime
                             National Ocean Test Facility          Research Centre
                                                                        hmrc.ucc.ie
Economics forum on Marine renewable Energy – June 13th 2011    Charles Parsons Energy Research




   Thank you



                                                              Hydraulics & Maritime
                             National Ocean Test Facility          Research Centre
                                                                        hmrc.ucc.ie

								
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