champion by wulinqing

VIEWS: 7 PAGES: 21

									Housing Studies Association Conference on ‘Housing and
   Sustainability’, University of York, 11-13 April 2007

The sustainability of English city housing
     markets: an end to city flight?
      Tony Champion and Mike Coombes
 tony.champion@ncl.ac.uk       mike.coombes@ncl.ac.uk




                 Acknowledgements:
 Simon Raybould and Colin Wymer (colleagues at CURDS)
                          and
     Joseph Rowntree Foundation (project funder)
             Census data: Crown copyright
              Background and aim
Context of long-term exodus from larger English cities to
  smaller cities and towns and more rural areas
More recently, growing optimism about city prospects:
  „cities are back‟ (State of the English Cities Report)
But how far are they all „back‟ and how sustainable is this
  progress against the risk of city housing market failure?
This depends largely on how far they can attract and retain
  the traditional „counterurbanising‟ types of residents
Paper uses new analyses to examine the socio-economic
  complexion of cities‟ migration with rest of UK
It draws mainly on JRF report, Migration and the Socio-
    economic change: a 2001 Census analysis of Britain’s
    larger cities (published 11 April by Policy Press, Bristol)
Context of within-UK migration
                             1997/98   1998/99   1999/00   2000/01   2001/02   2002/03   2003/04   2004/05
                        0
Combining the
(Defra-defined)     -25000


“Major/Large        -50000


Urban Areas”        -75000

and looking at
                   -100000
net migration
with the rest of   -125000


the UK (Patient    -150000
                                                   2001 Census
Register data):    -175000




 Unfortunately the annual datasets do not enable analyses
 of migrants‟ socio-economic characteristics…

 Detailed analysis of migrations‟ impact
 on cities still relies on Census data
          Research questions
 Are most of England‟s large cities now gaining
  population through within-UK migration flows?
 How do cities compare in terms of their
  migration exchanges of people in the highest
  socio-economic groups?
 How many cities gain through their longer-
  distance migration exchanges, and what role
  does London play in this?
 Do the least attractive cities for longer-
  distance flows also have the most adverse
  in/out ratio for their more local exchanges?
Framework for the JRF-project analyses
Data on within-UK migration for 27 of Britain‟s largest cities,
  in total and also longer- vs shorter-distance (based on
  movement beyond vs within City Region boundary)
City = Primary Urban Area (LA best-fit) as State of the Cities
City Regions = definitions by CURDS in mid1990s
2001 Census data = address changers in previous 12 months
  Special Migration Statistics Set 1 – mainly Table MG109

  Moving Groups: one or more persons in a household on
  Census night, who were also together at a different
  address one year ago

  NS-SeC: National Statistics Socio-economic Classification
  (replaced SEG in 2001 Census)
27 large cities
and their city
regions
27 city regions:
large cities = Primary
Urban Areas in grey
the rest of the city
regions in white


the rest of Britain:
other 16 city regions
in pale blue
NS Socio-economic Classification groups
 1.1 Large employers & higher managerial   Higher M&P
 1.2 Higher professional
 2 Lower managerial & professional         Lower M&P
 3 Intermediate                            Intermediate
 4 Small employers & own account workers
 5 Lower supervisory & technical           Low
 6 Semi-routine
 7 Routine
 L15 Full-time students                    FT Students
 L14.1 Never worked                        Other
 L14.2 Long term unemployed                unclassified
 L17 Not classifiable for other reasons
In/out ratio for 27 cities combined, by NS-SEC
                                                 In balance
                        More out than in                              More in than out
        All MGRPs


        FT Student
 Other unclassified


      All classified


       Higher M&P
       Lower M&P
      Intermediate
               Low

                       0.2   0.4   0.6     0.8        1         1.2     1.4    1.6   1.8
                                                 in/out ratio
      In/out ratio of cities grouped by size,
                 by NS-SEC type
                                                           in=out
                                          in/out ratio
                  0.5   0.6   0.7   0.8   0.9     1.0    1.1    1.2    1.3    1.4



Total 27 cities




       London




Next 5 largest                                                 Higher M&P
                                                               Lower M&P
                                                               Intermediate
Other 21 cities
                                                               Low
            In/out ratio for Higher M&P MGRPs:
               27 cities‟ beyond-CR migration
                                          in/out ratio
                 0.0   0.2   0.4   0.6   0.8        1.0   1.2   1.4   1.6   1.8

      London
     Brighton
       Derby
Northampton
   Edinburgh
     Reading
 Manchester
       Bristol
       Leeds
     Norwich
Southampton
     Preston
 Portsmouth
    Bradford
 Birmingham
    Glasgow
    Plymouth
       Cardiff
  Newcastle
    Liverpool
    Leicester
 Middlesbrou
 Nottingham
          Hull
    Sheffield
        Stoke                                    in=out
    Coventry
            In/out ratio for Higher M&P MGRPs:
               27 cities‟ migration with London
                                     in/out ratio
                   0.0   0.2   0.4       0.6        0.8    1.0     1.2

      Brighton
      Reading
         Derby
 Northampton
      Bradford
    Edinburgh
   Portsmouth
     Plymouth
         Bristol
      Norwich
      Glasgow
   Manchester
     Leicester
        Cardiff
         Leeds
       Preston
 Southampton
  Birmingham
    Newcastle
     Sheffield
     Liverpool                                            in=out
Middlesbrough
     Coventry
   Nottingham
           Hull
         Stoke
Relative performance of cities on longer-
distance migration measures 2000-01 and
immigration rate 2001-2003 (Gateway only)

 Type       Cities in England               Other cities

 Gateway    London Reading Brighton
            Bristol Preston Portsmouth
            Leeds Norwich Northampton
 Stronger   Derby                           Edinburgh
            Manchester Nottingham
            Plymouth Bradford Newcastle
 Moderate   Southampton Sheffield           Glasgow
            Coventry Leicester Birmingham
            Hull Middlesbrough Liverpool
 Weaker     Stoke                           Cardiff
How do cities compare on basis of strength
of longer-distance Higher M&P exchanges?
The aggregate picture for Higher M&Ps is quite encouraging:
   „neutral‟ is better than previous Censuses suggested
Yet only 4 of 27 cities had Higher M&P in/out ratios >1.0
   (London, Brighton, Derby, Northampton), with 4 more
   coming close (Edinburgh, Reading, Manchester, Bristol)
Stronger performance is associated with positive labour
   market factors (especially local job growth and a more
   graduate-intensive workforce)
There are also positive associations with some non- labour
   market factors, suggesting cities benefit from having more:
       same-sex couples,             people with no religion,
       high status residents         White residents
Key feature is the dominance of London: its very positive
   in/out ratio for Higher M&Ps is reflected in the strong net
   flow of Higher M&Ps to it from almost all other cities …
   a key element here is those cities‟ low graduate retention
                                                       deviation from unity
                         -0.6     -0.5   -0.4   -0.3      -0.2     -0.1       0.0   0.1    0.2       0.3

                                                                                                           Norwich


  In/out ratio of                                                                                          Reading

                                                                                                           Plymouth


   migration by                                                                                            Glasgow

                                                                                                           Portsmouth


   Higher M&P                                                                                              Bristol

                                                                                                           Northampton


 from/to Rest of                                                                                           Newcastle

                                                                                                           Southampton

own City Region                 OUTFLOW TO HINTERLAND
                                GREATER THAN INFLOW TO CITY
                                                                                    INFLOW TO CITY
                                                                                    GREATER
                                                                                                           Liverpool

                                                                                                           Preston

                                                                                                           Cardiff

Inflow to city greater                                                                                     London

                                                                                                           Manchester
      for just 7:                                                                                          Leeds

       Norwich                                                                                             Sheffield

                                                                                                           Edinburgh
       Reading                                                                                             Bradford

      Plymouth                                                                                             Brighton


      Glasgow                                                                                              Derby

                                                                                                           Nottingham
     Portsmouth                                                                                            Stoke

        Bristol                                                                                            Leicester

                                                                                                           Middlesbrough
    Northampton                                                                                            Coventry

                                                                                                           Birmingham

                                                                                                           Hull
Flows between cities and their own city region
by „longer-distance migration‟ city types
               City classes' in/out ratios with the rest of their city regions
                                           in/out ratio
                                                                                     in=out
           0    0.2             0.4            0.6            0.8                1                1.2



Gateway




Stronger




Moderate

                                                                                 All MGRP

                                                                                 All Classified
 Weaker
                                                                                 Higher M&P
                     1.6
                                                     London



                     1.4



                     1.2
                                          Brighton
   with rest of UK



                                  Derby
                                           Edinburgh           Northampton
                     1.0
                                                                             Reading

                                                                             Norwich
                     0.8
                                                                             Plymouth


                     0.6



                     0.4
                           0.4   0.6        0.8          1.0           1.2              1.4   1.6
                                              with rest of City Region

Link between Higher M&P exchanges with
rest of city region and those with rest of UK
Factors linked to more positive in/out ratios
between cities and the rest of their regions
echo those for longer-distance migration
Cities less likely to be strongly decentralising have more…
   residents under pension age students
   same sex couples                  EU born residents
   white residents                   strong local economies

This is unlike the past, when it was growing
 cities that tended to be decentralising more
Cities losing people both locally and over
  longer-distance risk housing market failure
 Main findings from these analyses
• Almost half the 27 cities gained population from within-
  UK migration in 2000-01, but for Higher M&P MGRPs
  only 8 cities were near to, or better than, being in balance
• The bulk of absolute losses of people sustained by „big
  city Britain‟ in aggregate was accounted for by London,
  but many more Higher M&Ps went to the capital than left
• Most cities making strong gains from long-distance
  migration had seen local job growth and possess
  attributes sustaining a higher quality of life
• The least attractive cities for longer-distance flows also
  tended to have the most adverse in/out ratios for
  migration with the other parts of their own city regions
• Students moving to university boost most large-city
  populations, but the loss of recent graduates weakens
  the cities‟ growth potential
Policy questions raised by the findings
• Can a more widespread urban renaissance be
  generated across the larger cities?
• How can more cities attract/keep the key group of
  Higher M&Ps?
• Can quality of life advantages in some northern
  cities compensate for persistent regional
  imbalance in economic growth?
• Is the observed association between low
  performance on both longer-distance and within-
  city region migration a cause of city housing
  market failure?
• What can be done to increase graduate retention
  in provincial cities?
Regeneration policies to tackle „city flight‟
Build economic growth, especially knowledge-
  based, to stem both long-distance and more
  local migration losses of the weaker cities
Improve cities‟ attractiveness to traditional „city-
  loving‟ population groups, perhaps also
  increasing their appeal to other migrants
Provide affordable family-friendly housing in
  neighbourhoods with (a) access to good
  schools, (b) a spacious feel, (c) low crime
Selectively redevelop suburbs, and consider
  urban extensions, maybe as mixed communities
Address the sustainability balance between more
  intensive building on „the city‟ and allowing more
  „polycentric‟ growth, albeit at a higher density
Housing Studies Association Conference on ‘Housing and
   Sustainability’, University of York, 11-13 April 2007

The sustainability of English city housing
     markets: an end to city flight?
      Tony Champion and Mike Coombes
 tony.champion@ncl.ac.uk       mike.coombes@ncl.ac.uk




                 Acknowledgements:
 Simon Raybould and Colin Wymer (colleagues at CURDS)
                          and
     Joseph Rowntree Foundation (project funder)
             Census data: Crown copyright

								
To top