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    Opportunities and challenges of                               1. New context of economic and Vietnamese
  Vietnamese agricultural enterprises                                enterprises development
     beyond WTO membership                                        2. Opportunities and challenges facing Vietnam’s
              ISG Plenary Meeting 2006                               economy once Vietnam is a member of WTO
                                                                  3. Effects of WTO entry on Vietnamese
               Hanoi, October 25, 2006                               agricultural enterprises
                           Pham Chi Lan



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                                                                                       International Context:
                                                                  • Globalization has become a reality
                                                                  • Established knowledge economy
                                                                  • Non-stop development of new technologies and
                                                                    innovations
      1. New Context of Economic and                              • Economic reform and re-structure are occurring
     Vietnamese enterprises Development                             everywhere
                                                                  • Many new FTA and RTA set up
                                                                  • Global business network and value chain have
                                                                    developed strongly
                                                                  • Protectionism and modern technique barriers
                                                                  • New strategies of enterprises from MNCs to SMEs
                                                                  • We are living in the fast moving world


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 Major trends of enterprise movements in the
                                                                                   International developments affect directly on
                    world                                                                Vietnamese economy

     - Many cases of merging and acquisitions (M&A)                   - China became a member of WTO, India has strongly developed
                                                                       - New developments in the region, especially:
         establish larger and stronger multi-national                     ASEAN + China, ASEAN + 3, EAS
   companies (MNCs) those is the FDI biggest source                    - EU and NAFTA expansion
         MNCs re-structure to consist of small enterprise              - Increasing trend of FTA and RTA setting up
   groups (having soul and speed of a small enterprise in a            - Raising role of services, intellectual property, information
   large one body)                                                   technology and out-sourcing in trade
                                                                       - Trade liberalization in parallel with reinforcing protectionism and
    - Development of small and medium-sized enterprises              modern trade barriers
   (SMEs) clusters      increase efficiency and                        - International market has fluctuated continuously, this is hard for
   competitiveness                                                   forecast
    - Strong development of global business networks and
   supply chains

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                                                                                                                                                   1
      How international context                                                              Domestic Context:
   affects on Vietnamese economy
 - Pressure on competition raises (in import, export and                    1. Taking initiative in international integration: Vietnam is
                                                                              on the new route of international economic integration,
   FDI)                                                                       which contains new opportunities, challenges and
 - Common trend to press Vietnam to open door and boost                       commitments (AFTA, ASEAN +, ASEM, APEC, WTO,
   liberalization faster and more comprehensively                             FTA…)
 - Threat of regional trade that is shifting towards                        2. Vietnam’s position and strength: new foundation which
   unfavorable direction to Vietnam, Vietnam lags behind                      is higher and stronger but still the developing economy
   new movements                                                              at the low-level
 - Stricter integration conditions, tighter supervision, short              3. Economic institution and business environment: better
   time for economy transition.                                               but it is still a long way to finish changing the economy to
 - Vietnam secures a golden chance, however, the country                      the market-oriented one
   should have great capability and efforts to take full                    4. Enterprise and entrepreneur force: (forces at the fore
   advantage of that.                                                         front of international economic integration): crowded and
                                                                              more matured but limited in competitive capability

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      Vietnam position in global and regional
                     economy
Vietnam in the global economy:
• GDP 2005: $53 billion of Vietnam/ $38.000 billion of global (0,14%)
• Export 2005: $33 billion of Vietnam / $10.000 billion of global (0,3%)
Vietnam in ASEAN:
                                                                              2. Opportunities and challenges facing
• GDP 2005 (according to ASEAN): $47 billion of Vietnam / ASEAN
   $849 billion of ASEAN (5,5%)
                                                                                 Vietnam’s economy upon becoming
   (IA 270, TL167, M’a 132, S’po 115, RP 95 billion)                                     WTO membership
• GDP 2005 per capita: $567 of Vietnam / $1500 of ASEAN
    (S’po 26000, Brunei 17000, M’a 5100, TL 2500, IA 1200, RP 1000)
• Export 2004: $26,5 billion of Vietnam/ $525,6 billion of ASEAN (5%)
    (S’po 179; M’a 126,5; TL 97,4; IA 71,6; RP 39,7 billion)




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 Economic opportunities and challenges
Opportunities:                                                              outdoor:
  Indoor :                                                                    - Open market to other countries: enjoy MFN and non-
    - Complete market institution, improve business environment and          discriminatory regime       increase imports and exports
   promote competition for development                                       more efficiently
    - Re-structure the economy in term of industries, products, markets,      - Luring foreign investment, combine domestic and
   labour and enterprise segments towards promoting comparative
   advantage and creating new advantages                                     foreign resources for development more efficiently
    - Promote enterprises, create new jobs and increase income                - Easier participating in international labour allocation,
    - Develop scientific technology, hi-tech industry and access the         attaining higher position in the global value chain
   knowledge economy
    - Develop and allocate country’s resources towards efficiency and         - Warding off unfair legal sues; handling fairer
   further sustainability                                                    international trade dispute
                                                                              - Creating new position in participating global, regional
                                                                             and bilateral negotiations in the future


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                                                                                                                                                2
      Challenges:
                                                                           Outdoor:
      Indoor:
                                                                           -To accept common laws and face with complicated
       - Amend, adjust legal system and economic policies,
      which will match the international commitments                        legal systems of other nations
       - Uncompleted market-oriented institution; insufficient             - To accept fierce competition on the markets at home
      and obstructing business environment                                  and abroad in all segments (goods, services and
       - Low starting point, low productivity, backward                     labour forces...) at levels
      economic structure, limited competitive capability of the            -To cope with technique barriers raised by other
      whole economy, products and enterprises and                           nations
      insufficient infrastructure
                                                                           - To suffer from pressures in the first years of being
      -Low quality of labor force, limitation in state                      WTO membership due to non – market oriented
      management capacity and corporate governance;
      education and training system does not meet demand                    economy status
      - Industries, products, enterprises and groups of citizen            -To change global and regional economic environment,
      may be lost in the new context and need preparing and                 fierce competition and fast changes require fast
      supporting                                                            compatible capability

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                                                                          Vietnam comparative advantages
  Social and labor concerns:
    - Laws on labor                                                   • Geographical location at the centre of Eastern Asia
    - Working standards, social responsibility of enterprises           which is active, developed and fast integrated
    - Salary and income scheme                                        • Labour force is abundant, young, hard-working, adaptive
    - Relationship between employers and employees                      and inquiring mind
    - Policies on labour industry                                     • Stable macro economy, politics and society
    - Development of private sector and SMEs                          • Integrating global and regional economies, joining in key
                                                                        economic coalitions
    - Social security network
                                                                      • Having potentials in expanding the domestic market
    - Training and retraining
                                                                      • Having potentials in promoting industries like agriculture,
    - Migration and labour moving
                                                                        industry, services and exports
    - Supporting disadvantaged groups
                                                                      • These advantages should be exploited and promoted to
                                                                        become competitive ones

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   Macro economic issues need handling
           after joining the WTO                                      • Comprehensive implementation of
                                                                        economic reform and important eco-social
• Complete market institution as soon as possible                       policies
   - Institute policy and law networks based on the market-           - State-owned enterprise reform
  oriented institution in accordance with demands on                  - Banking, taxation, trade and public service
  development and international commitments                              reforms
    - Strongly implement reforming administrative and                 - Education and training reform
  judicial systems at all levels, increase capability of state        - Develop markets of property, labour, equity,
  agencies and staff
                                                                         technologies, services and goods
    - Enforce laws conformity and supervision
                                                                      - Develop infrastructures
    - Create fair and stable business environment
                                                                      - Compile support development policies for SMEs
    - Compile institutions of competition, monopoly control
  and dispute handling                                                - Promote the efficient social security system

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                                                                                                                                       3
                                                                    Structure transition of all economic
• Adjust development strategies                                                   sectors
   - Study, re-assess the advantages and disadvantages of
   Vietnamese economy and sectors in the international          • Boost service sector
   integration                                                    - Re-assess the advantages and disadvantages of
   - Adjust existing general strategies of sectors and             Vietnam’s service sector in international trade
   regions, combining these strategies and plans                   - Adjust strategies and development plans for service
   - Formulate new strategies: international integration and       sector
   trade strategies (use the most of advantages and               - Promote service sector to secure the largest part in the
   fulfillment of WTO commitments, promote new                     economic structure and boost service exports
   negotiations)
                                                                  - Liberalize service sector to all domestic enterprises
   - Give priority to growth quality, productivity, creating       (especially private ones) before opening to foreign
   international competitive capability, labour force and          investors, lift barrier and create competition for service
   sustainable development                                         development
   - Adjust development strategies for all types of                - Conduct training for service sector’s labour force
   enterprises

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• Develop industry properly                                     • Shifting agricultural development
  - Re-assess advantages and disadvantages of industry             - Re-assess the advantages and disadvantages of
   in Vietnam in international trade                               Vietnam’s agriculture in international trade
   - Adjust general strategies of industries and regions           - Adjust general strategies of the industry and regions
   towards international cooperation and competition               towards international development and competition
   - Expand freedom in investment and business rights in           requirement
   the industry to domestic enterprises, private sector and        - Stick agriculture and rural development to industry
   FDI                                                             services, scientific technology and environment sectors
   - Adjust state and state-owned enterprises investment           - Divert agricultural development organisations towards
   focusing on key and pivotal productions                         the proper form in accordance with its economic scale
   - Re-allocate resources focusing on promoting products          - Shift basically agricultural production towards
   with competitive advantages and narrowing/stopping              diversification and sustainable development focusing on
   manufacturing products with less competitiveness                product quality, standards, productivity and added value
   - Attach much important to efficient requirement, quality,      - Change agricultural business modes to the form that
   technology quality, productivity and creating new position      matches with domestic and foreign market requirement
   in the global chain
11/8/2006                                                  21   11/8/2006                                                       22




            Change of enterprise structure                      • Create new assignment and cooperation/competition
                                                                   among three enterprise sources
• Re-arrangement of enterprise resources                          - State-owned enterprises: narrow the number of
 - Conduct fiercely state-owned enterprise reform: hasten          companies and operation scope; improve competitive
   equitization programme, reduce state stake in equitised         efficient and supervising capability in key sectors
   enterprises; shift state-owned enterprise’s operation to        dominated by state
   be regulated by the Enterprise Law                              - Domestic private enterprises: maximize the number of
 - Create favourable environment for domestic private              enterprises, operation areas and scope, improve
   sector to make it become major source in service,               competitive capability, efficiency and its motive force in
   agriculture and industry sectors and exports as well as         economic development, exports and creating jobs and
   counterbalances and partners of state-owned                     income increase
   enterprises and FDI                                             - FDI enterprises: fast expansion, cooperation and
 - Attract FDI and financial investment, through FDI to            competition with domestic ones, become a motive force
   renew technologies, change industries and products              in export competition and create new favour advantage
   structure, expand export markets and promote domestic           for Vietnam in global business network and regional
   enterprises                                                     coalition

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                                                                                                                                     4
• Develop enterprise support system and linkage                                           Re-defining product structure
   - Concentrating on lifting early major barriers to enterprises
   - Re-design policies and supportive tools for enterprises, which           • Group of products with strong development capability:
    match with development priorities and WTO regulations
                                                                                under competition, able to attract more sources for
   - Facilitate business development services, socialize public services,
    improve infrastructure service, education and training, information         further development: garment and textile, leather,
    and technology...                                                           seafood, wooden furniture, minerals, agricultural
   - Create favour for enterprise clusters in industries, regions and craft     products, mechanical products; tourism services,
    villages and even with other enterprises in the regions                     information technology, business support services,
   - Promote roles of enterprise associations, especially representing          transport, construction and mechanism
    role for enterprises to protect their rights; support and promote trade   • Group of products facing reduced production possibility:
   - Take care of SMEs, promote large-scale and leading private                 usually alternative products for imports, low
    enterprises                                                                 competitiveness and enjoying state subsidies: steel,
                                                                                paper, chemical fertiliser, automobile and motorbike,
                                                                                alcohol and beer, cigarette, construction materials…;
                                                                                domestic sale services, financial service and maritime…
                                                                              • Other products: have limited growth capability
                                                                              Need to further study widely on products and services
11/8/2006                                                                25   11/8/2006                                                     26




                                                                                 The position of Vietnam’s enterprises
                                                                                 in international economic integration
                                                                                  - Forces at the fore front of economic construction and
                                                                                 development, creating economic capacity for the
            3. Effects of WTO entry on                                           country, improve economic level to the higher
                                                                                 development one
            Vietnam’s agro- enterprises                                          - an important source in creating jobs, eradicating
                                                                                 poverty, ensuring social security and increasing income
                                                                                 - a force coping directly with challenges, using
                                                                                 opportunities, creating competitive and adaptive
                                                                                 capability of products, industries and labour forces
                                                                                 - Success of enterprises decide country’s destiny in the
                                                                                 future in the international economic integration

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            Number of Agro-enterprises                                         Common features of Vietnam’s enterprises
                                                                              • Mostly SMEs( 95 %), very big number of micro
• Vietnam has:                                                                    enterprises and non-official ones
   # 200.000 official private enterprises (30-35.000 new                      • A big gap between state-owned enterprises and FDI
  ones established annually)                                                      (SOEs & FDI) and SMEs (domestic private sector)
   # 3.000 state-owned enterprises (to be reduced)                            • Mostly are newly established, and limited business
   > 5.000 FDI enterprises (to be increased )                                     experiences
   > 2,6 million non-farming business households                              • Lack and weakness of investment capital, labour force,
                                                                                  equipment, technology, materials, administration and
   > 9 million farmer households producing goods                                  market access
• Small ratio of official number of enterprise per capita                     • Low productivity, low business efficiency
  (1/400)
                                                                              • High business cost, low profit rate
• Ratio of enterprises surviving after 3 years: 75%; after 5
  years: 64%                                                                  • Limited competitive capability and it is not easy to
                                                                                  improve
• will have great changes in the next 3-5 years
                                                                              • Lack of development/competition strategies
                                                                              • Lack of links into value chain and efficient business
11/8/2006                                                                29       network
                                                                              11/8/2006                                                     30




                                                                                                                                                 5
         Reasons of Vietnamese enterprises’ difficulties                                        Restrictions to the
• Operation in unfavorable and unsafe legal corridor;
  tough and unfair business environment with plenty of                                      development of enterprises
  barriers and small number of support tools                                                         WB, enterprise survey
• Difficult to access necessary resources: credit, land,                  Restrictions                    Eastern Asia   Vietnam   World
  skilled labour force and information…                                   Credit access                      17.4 **      37.4     30.1 **
• Limited, low quality and expensive infrastructure services              Land access                        9.9 **       26.4     14.5 **
• Complicated and expensive administrative services                       Skilled labour and education        23.8        22.3     20.4 *
• Weak business support service network and enterprise                    Transportation                     15.2 **      21.6     12.4 **
  support organizations
                                                                          Stable macro economy               34.1 **      16.8     40.2 **
• Enterprise associations have not yet developed to
  represent for enterprise’s interests to protect, support                Corruption                         28.6 **      12.8     36.8 **
  and set up clusters                                                     Labour relationship                17.4 **      10.9     17.3 **
• Unfair, improper and inefficient state policies and support             Legal system                       27.3 **       5.5     21.6 **
  tools for enterprises
                                                                          Crime and thief                    19.3 **       4.0     25.7 **

                                                                          License system                     14.4 **       1.4     15.9 **
11/8/2006                                                          31   11/8/2006                                                            32




    Effects of WTO entry on the Vietnamese                                      Effects of WTO entry on Vietnamese
                  enterprises                                                          enterprises
Opportunities:                                                           Difficulties / Challenges:
• Many export opportunities as the world market is                      • Fierce competition on markets including domestic one
  expanded and competitive position is fairer
                                                                        • Study and understand WTO regulations, regional
• Stable development of the domestic economy                              commitments and laws of trading partner’s countries
• Improved legal corridor and business environment which                • Apply international and domestic standards
  are more transparent, competitive and fairer.
                                                                        • Keep cautious in selecting trading partners, markets and
• Easier access to credit resource, technologies,                         business mode
  information, services, equipment and input materials...
                                                                        • More state incentives, subsidies and protection will be
• Opportunity to compile new business strategies and set                  lifted
  up clusters for development
                                                                        • Fast moving market requires adaptive capability
• Disputes in international trade are solved fairer
                                                                        • Many other obstacles that are hard to overcome
                                                                        • Some industries, products and enterprises may be lost
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     Effects of WTO entry on                                            • Prospect of expanding markets for enterprises’ products
Vietnamese agricultural enterprises                                       and services to rural areas
                                                                        • Access to necessary resources is easier
Opportunities:                                                          • In-put cost will decrease due to competition (domestic
• Concerns, legal environment and policies of agricultural sector are     market & imports), socialization of some
  better, more transparent and stable
                                                                          services,increasing number of supplying sources
• The State will adjust agricultural development strategies and
  scheme towards more market – oriented and sustainable                 • SOEs and state-owned farms reform create fair and
• New state measures, supportive tools of agriculture and rural           free some sources (land and business rights…)
  development will be fairer and more proper                            • Re-structure labour force in agriculture sector improve
• Supportive service sector, technology, industry will develop,           farmers’ thought, business, productivity, working quality
  infrastructure in rural areas will be improved                          and market access.
• Prospect of accessing better export markets due to the new position
  of Vietnam in the WTO, at the Doha negotiation                        • Possibility to link four partners including farmers, state
• The domestic market develops, distribution network expands. These       agencies, scientists and enterprises; sectors and regions
  are favours for agricultural product consumption                        more efficiently and sustainably in the new competitive
                                                                          pressure
                                                                        • Better prospect of attracting FDI and international
                                                                          cooperation in agriculture and rural development
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                                                                                                                                                  6
     Effects of WTO entry on                                               • Agricultural producers and businesses and other relating
Vietnamese agricultural enterprises                                          agencies are insufficient: small scale, dispersing, slow
                                                                             change, non-synchronous, non-steady development,
Challenges:                                                                  lack of investment in creating added values to products,
• Increase competition in the domestic and foreign agricultural product      and not yet into a linkage chain.
  markets in terms of quality, standards, price and services…              • Vietnam’s agricultural products have limitations in
• Higher level of compulsory standards on quality, hygiene (domestic         quality, standards, stability, sameness, hygiene, safety,
  and international) for agricultural products in parallel with stricter     environment, harvesting, preservation and low
  supervision                                                                processing ratio     do not match with the increasing
• Adjustment on legal system, policies, strategies, scheme and               demands of urban markets and exports as well as lack of
  infrastructure for agriculture and rural development takes time and
  requires large investment. It is not easy to execute                       strong trade name
• Measures of agriculture supporting subsidies that do not comply with     • Agricultural product distribution systems for both
  WTO regulations will be removed, while the new system has not yet          domestic markets and exports need to be improved in
  been set up and competition pressures will come shortly and make           terms of infrastructure, capital, organisation, professional
  enterprises hard to cope with                                              business manner and marketing …
                                                                           • Vietnam’s agricultural enterprises have subjective and
                                                                             objective obstacles that limit the competitive capability
                                                                             and not easy to overcome
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    In general, for Vietnamese agriculture enterprises,
    opportunities are great in the long term, which is not                   Factors determining enterprises’ competitiveness
    easy to secure but challenges are real and not easy to                   - Good product and service quality
    overcome due to:                                                         - Understanding and satisfying customers’ demand
       - Agriculture reform and development need a strategic                 - Good product and service distribution system
    view, combination between strategies and activities of                   - Decreased production cost of products and services
    many sectors and state agencies at levels, management                    - Building up and developing enterprise’s brand name and prestige
    system, people, technologies that Vietnam has not yet                    - Developing labour force, improving professional knowledge
    got during the years to come                                             - Good administration, especially finance and personnel matters
       - Global agricultural products always bear risks,                     - Renewing technology, increasing productivity and improving
    fluctuation, unfair and are protected strongly by big                      products quality
    importers, and leave loss to developing nations. These is                - Setting up good clusters and cooperation with relevant enterprises
    hard to improve while the domestic market is small and
    competition is serve.
       - Agricultural product business bears high risk, low
    profit while business of other relating sectors and
    services is tougher than that of others due to the specific
    feature of farmers and agro-products
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    What should Vietnam’s enterprises do to                                        Renewal competition strategy of
    gain success in international integration                                         Vietnamese enterprises
     - Study integration issues, improve knowledge, update                     •       Have both feet on the ground, create win-win status
        information (self-educated, hiring experts)                            •       Find the way of development and promoting
     - Formulate business and competition strategies for the                           advantages (rather than reduce disadvantages),
        enterprise                                                                     focusing on motive advantages (rather than static
     - Apply measures to improve competitive capability                                ones)
        (improve management, renew technology, reduce                          •       Further improve, innovate, perform and diversify
        production cost, develop distribution system, brand                    •       Stick to movements of the sector and its positions in
        name, human resource training,…)                                               the sector
     - Boost cooperation with other enterprises; join into                     •       Adapt to changes (change in competitive
                                                                                       advantages)
        alliances, networks and associations


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                                                                                                                                                         7
    Increase added value for enterprises                                          Enterprises’ competitive strategy selection

     Competitive capability in the value chain                                  • 3 basic competitive strategy directions:
    Activities creating added value:                                              - Cost leadership
     1 – Product research and development: high added value
     2 – Manufacture, processing and assembling: low added value
                                                                                  - Differentiation
     3 – Product distribution and marketing: high added value                     - Focus

    Most Vietnamese enterprises focus on the second activities of
    manufacture, processing and assembling, less interest in services           • 3 competitive motives according to the International
    disadvantages and low profit. Need to shift to either first or third          Trade Centre, ITC:
    activities, or develop services to create more added value
                                                                                  - Fast track
                                                                                  - Participate into globalization supplying chain
                                                                                  - Package service


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What the state should do to support enterprises
     in international economic integration                                      • Improve service quality and decrease service cost managed by state
                                                                                  and offered by monopoly SOEs
• Conducting necessary and proper adjustment that match                         • Facilitate the development of business support service system,
                                                                                  especially for SMEs and enterprises at rural areas
  with new context of development and international
                                                                                • Promote development of enterprise associations and alliances
  economic integration
                                                                                • Take full advantages of resources at in the country and abroad,
• Complete legal system, create safe legal corridor and                           allocate and use these sources efficiently and equally.
  fair competitive environment for all enterprises                              • Continue to follow wise foreign relation trace, use up and build more
• Conduct strongly administrative reform, improve skilled                         bilateral and multi-lateral cooperation channels catering for the
                                                                                  country’s development
  staff with capability, serving virtue and consciousness
                                                                                • Execute violently policies to fight against corruption, profligate,
• Focus on developing human resource, implement                                   bureaucrat and deceitful shortcoming
  strongly reform in education and training system.
• Continue to develop and improve infrastructure and
  decrease cost of infrastructure especially cost for
  external activities

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    Roads ahead
•    “Roads lead to opportunities in the 21st century                           Main issues once Vietnam enters the WTO
    are business talent, joint venture, cooperation,                             are “inside border” ones
    alliance and global network. Opportunities are
    available around the world,especially in Asia.”                             Must overcome ourselves
    (John Naisbitt)
                                                                                Must act now
• “In 21 century, the winners will be those stand
  ahead of changing curved line, review
  continuously their career, create new markets                                               Thank you!
  and new roads, re-innovate competitive rules,
  challenges to present situation” (Charles Handy)

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