Manitoba mortgage rates update
Manitoba house prices are forecasted to increase by 10% in 2008, these persistent price gains could limit choice for first-time and low equity buyers, resulting in another modest rise in sales next year.
Economic growth fuelled by capital investment and consumption
A stable economy will sustain elevated levels of new home construction in Manitoba. Provincial housing starts will eclipse historical averages during the next two years, reaching 5,800 units in 2008 and 5,900 units in 2009. Including last years activity, this will represent the best three-year performance for Manitoba builders in over 20 years. Manitobas economy is forecast to expand by 2.9 per cent in 2008 and 2.6 per cent in 2009, marking the sixth year in succession the provincial economy grows by 2.5 per cent or more. Capital projects and domestic spending will be key drivers of growth over the forecast horizon. With net migration and job creation among historical highs, retailers will enjoy recurring gains in personal spending. Accordingly, the unemployment rate will be maintained at near historical lows, averaging 4.3 per cent over the forecast period and will bolster consumer confidence. The low unemployment rate relative to other provinces is also resulting in fewer people leaving Manitoba in search of work.
The Resale market will be boosted by migration
Boosted by heightened levels of net migration, existing home sales will set a new high of 14,100 units in 2008. Despite some additional selection in late 2008 and into 2009, the strong growth in listings required to achieve significant sales gains will likely not materialize. In addition, persistent price gains could limit choice for first-time and low equity buyers, resulting in another modest rise in sales next year. At 14,250 units, 2009 will mark the eighth year in succession that a sales record was achieved.
Manitoba house prices increase by almost 10% to $185,500
In 2008, Manitobas resale market will experience another strong year of price growth, com ing just short of the double digit gains that have been the norm for the last five years. Strong demand combined with a shortage of listings will push prices up 9.8 per cent this year, reaching an average of $185,500. In 2009, an increase in active listings will provide more choice for buyers and weaken the pace of price growth to below six per cent.
Manitoba key stats
Source: Stats Canada, Canadian Real Estate Association
Metric
Manitoba
Canada
Population
2007
Consumer Price Index
Mar'08 (2002 = 100)
1,186,700
32,568,000
112
113
Average earnings
$37,572
$40,914
(Feb'08)
Unemployment rate
(Mar'08 )
4.3%
6.0%
Housing starts
(Mar'08)
4,700
243,000
2007 (E) Average Residential Resale Price
$169,000
$306,397*
12.5%
$185,500
10.6%
$322,400*
2008 (F)
(annual % change)
2009 (F)
8.5%
$196,000
5.2%
$334,500*
5.7%
$2,867,499,000
3.8%
$152,478,903,000
Chartered banks
Mortgages approved by lenders, residential 2006
Trust companies
$360,784,000
$6,664,898,000
Life and companies other
$1,043,181,000
$30,225,144,000
Total
2007 E = estimated by the CMHC
$4,271,464,0000
$189,368,945,000
* Canada calculation excludes Yukon and Northwest Territories Data based on application received date Mortgage approval data are gross and may not fully capture lending activities of credit unions, caisses populaires, other smaller institutions and privately-insured loans in some areas Quebec data is understated due to low response rate to the surveys in that province. *Conventional Lending data only
Census Metropolitan Area
Total Housing Starts
MLS sales
MLS average price
Winnipeg
2007
3,371
12,350
$174,500
2008 (F)
3,400
12,450
$192,500
2009 (F)
3,525
12,600
$205,000
MLS = Multiple Listings Service
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