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									US CLIVAR Report
             CLIVAR SSG-18
                   UNESCO, Paris
                    May 3, 2011

                  Lisa Goddard
                 U.S. CLIVAR SSC Chair
International Research Institute for Climate and Society
                  Columbia University

                 Mike Patterson
       Interim Director, US CLIVAR Project Office
                             US CLIVAR Goals

Identifying and understanding the major patterns of climate variability on seasonal,
decadal and longer time scales and evaluating their predictability

Evaluating and improving the models used for prediction and projection to project
climate change due to human activity, including anthropogenically induced changes
in atmospheric composition

Expanding our capacity in short term (seasonal-to-interannual) climate prediction
and searching for ways to provide information on decadal variability

Better documenting rapid climate changes and the mechanisms for these events,
and evaluating the potential for abrupt climate changes in the future

Detecting and describing high impact climate variability and change
                         US CLIVAR Structure

Intl. CLIVAR Office
                                                                                Intl. CLIVAR SSG

                                                               Intl. CLIVAR Panels
                                  Working Groups
                      Madden Julian Oscillation
                      Western Boundary Current
                      High Latitude Surface Fluxes
                      Decadal Predictability
                      Greenland Ice Sheet/Ocean Interactions
                  US CLIVAR Recent Achievements

•   4 new Climate Process Teams (CPTs) started in 2010
       Ocean Boundary Mixing
       Sea Ice/Ocean Mixing
       Stratocumulus to Cumulus Transition
       Cloud Macrophysical Parameterization

•   Climate Model Evaluation Projects awarded for CMIP5 analysis (26 funded)

•   Integrated Earth System Analysis (IESA) workshop November 2010; FY11 small grants
    program for analyzing reanalysis products

•   Atlantic MOC activity has grown (40 projects); planning underway for AMOC observing
    elements in the northern subpolar and southern Atlantic

•   DYNAMO (MJO initiation) & SPURS (ocean salinity) projects awarded and field campaigns
    moving forward

       US Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
•Design and implementation of an AMOC monitoring
•Assessment of AMOC’s role in the global climate
•Assessment of AMOC variabiltiy mechanisms and

International collaborations: UK RAPID, EU, Germany THOR

Key Developments:
•Increase in number of projects (40)
        Observations, modeling, OSEs, assimilation,
           processes, etc
•N. Atlantic Sub-Polar Obs. Workshop, April 2010 (Durham
        Identified motivation and design of a N Atlantic
           subpolar gyre obs system (OSNAP) from Labrador to
        AMOC, THOR, plus carbon and biological
•SAMOC 3 Workshop, May 2010 (Rio)
        Planning of 35S cross-basin line
•Third AMOC Science Team workshop, June 2010 (Miami);
Third Annual US AMOC Report published February 2010            US AMOC contributions in black;
•Joint RAPID-AMOC Science meeting July 2011 (Bristol)          International contributions in red.
Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO)

•Collect in situ observations from the equatorial Indian Ocean that are urgently needed to advance our
understanding of the processes key to MJO initiation and to improve their representations in models;
•Identify critical deficiencies in models that are responsible for the low prediction skill and poor simulations of
MJO initiation, and assist the broad community effort of improving model parameterization;
•Provide guiding information to enhance MJO monitoring and prediction capacities that deliver climate
prediction and assessment products on intraseasonal timescales for risk management and decision making
over the global tropics.

Field Campaigns: DYNAMO and CINDY2011 (September 2011 – January 2012)

Participating countries: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, ECMWF, India, Japan, UK, US

Key developments:
•Indian Ocean Piracy Exclusion Zone Boundary -- extended from 65E to 78E engulfing the Maldives Chain at 73E and
the western 2/3 of experimental array
        Japanese report an additional $200K in insurance to operate the Mirai in the zone.
        DYNAMO SSC reexamining ports to use and examining alternate configurations and the potential impact on
          science objectives if there is a need to move a few degrees eastward.
        Indians increasing their patrols of the Maldives; ONR monitoring and assessing from military perspective.
        Decision to operate vessels during the experiment will ultimately be up to the ship Captains.
•Fuel Costs – With the recent increases in fuel costs, the SSC is evaluating the impact on port calls and transit to
station versus on-station conduct of science.
•Japan earthquake/tsunami disaster could impact Japanese participation in the experiment.
 Salinity Processes in the Upper Ocean Regional Study
An upper-ocean freshwater field
campaign in the salinity maximum region
of the Subtropical North Atlantic planned
for March 2012

Spatially nested structure in both the
observational and model approaches:
Large scale – entire subtropical regime
and its relationship to the AMOC
Regional scale ~1000 km, represents
the salty subtropical convergence regime
Small scale ~100 km (comparable to
the Aquarius footprint) investigates the
details of the sub-mesoscale physical
processes affecting the surface layer and   NASA support of glider array, modeling,
subduction of the S-max water               data management, planning

                                            3-4 cruises, 30 to 40-days each; possibility
                                            of Spanish, Irish and German ships
         Potential US Contribution to IASCLIP
Continuously Operating Caribbean GPS Observational Network

                                    Adds 50 GPS stations around perimeter
                                       of the Caribbean basin; installation
                                       over the next three years

                                    NSF Support through Tectonics Program
                                        ~$7M/5 years; Small Atmospheric
                                        and Geospace Sciences funding

                                     produces precipitable water vapor
                                      (PW) estimates at 30- minute time
                                     provides continuous observations of
                                      surface temperature and pressure,
                                      relative humidity, horizontal winds,
                                      and precipitation
            US CLIVAR Strategic Directions/Planning

•   US CLIVAR moving ahead on decadal variability, extremes, and climate of polar regions
           Decadal Predictability Working Group
           Greenland Ice Sheet-Ocean Interactions Working Group
           Hurricane Working Group
           Research Colloquium on Extremes under Global Warming

•   New theme on physical climate system interactions with carbon cycle, ocean
    biogeochemistry and marine ecosystems to be explored at July 2011 Summit in Woods
    Hole, MA
         How do changes in the physical ocean circulation and heat content affect the magnitudes
          and distributions of ocean carbon sources and sinks on seasonal to centennial time scales?
         What are the coupled physical/biogeochemical processes and feedbacks that contribute to
          determining the future state of heat and carbon sources and sinks and ecosystem structure?
         What will be the future atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and other
          carbon-containing greenhouse gases, and how will marine carbon sources and sinks change
          in response to anthropogenic forcing in the future?

•   SSC to initiate science planning for post-2014 period during Summit
           Decadal Predictability Working Group
         Chairs: Lisa Goddard (IRI/Columbia); Arun Kumar (NOAA/NCEP);
                               Amy Solomon (UCO)

• Define a framework to distinguish natural decadal variability from
  anthropogenically forced variability and to quantify their relative magnitude
• Develop a framework for understanding decadal variability through metrics that
  can be used as a strategy to assess and validate decadal climate predictions

Published a February 2011 BAMS article describing
        existing methodologies to separate decadal natural variability from
         anthropogenically forced variability,
        the degree to which those efforts have succeeded, and
        the ways in which the methods are limited or challenged by existing data.

Currently developing White Paper on for consistent metrics framework for
evaluation of decadal simulations (as input to AR5 Chapter 11)
Greenland Ice Sheet/Ocean Interactions Working Group
          Chairs: Fiamma Straneo, WHOI; Olga Sergienko, Princeton Univ.;
                             Patrick Heimback, MIT

 • Foster and promote inter-
    action between the diverse
    oceanographic, glaciological,
    atmospheric, and climate (modeling and observational) communities
    interested in glacier/ocean interactions around Greenland
 • Advance understanding of processes and improve their representation in
   climate models

 The WG is drafting paper for submission to EOS or BAMS summarizing the state of
   knowledge and research on GIS/ocean interactions,
        presenting various disciplinary perspectives,
        enumerating key science questions, and
        proposing options on how the community may proceed.

 A limited participation workshop next Winter/Spring 2012.
            US CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group
              Chairs: Gabriel Vecchi, GFDL; Suzana Camargo, LDEO;
                   Kevin Walsh, Univ. of Melbourne, Australia

To coordinate efforts to produce a set of model experiments
  designed to improve understanding of the variability of tropical
  cyclone formation in climate models

Scientific Objectives:
• Improve understanding of interannual variability and trends in
   tropical cyclone activity from the beginning of the 20th
   century to the present
• Quantify changes in the characteristics of tropical cyclones
      under a warming climate

The WG is coordinating a set of GCM experiments with a common set of forcings
  and provide the output for use by the research, prediction and applications

Noting that the work would be useful in interpreting CMIP5 results, a near-term
  aim is to complete publication(s) for inclusion in the upcoming AR5.
      US CLIVAR/NCAR ASP Researcher Colloquium
Statistical Assessment of Extreme Weather Phenomena
                  under Climate Change
                               NCAR Foothills Lab, Boulder, Colorado, USA
                                           June 13-17, 2011

•     Determine climate and weather extremes that are crucial in resources management and policy
•     Identify the current state of the science of climate and weather extremes including uncertainties
      and information gaps in real-world applications
•     Obtain insights into the capabilities of climate models in identifying and modeling such extreme
•     Assess efficacy of statistical methods and tools to analyze and model extreme events under
      climate change
•     Develop interdisciplinary research directions in modeling and application of climate extremes

    Participation of ~80 researchers, decision makers and students studying extreme events in
    observations and climate models; statistical modeling and identification of extremes; and use of
    climate extremes in a suite of decision and policy making contexts.
                       Links to International CLIVAR

•   Mapping of US CLIVAR goals to international CLIVAR goals and imperatives

•   Cross-fertilization of scientists in planning efforts
      Participation of US scientists on international panels
      Participation of international scientists in US working groups and workshops
               - Decadal Predictability (Hadley Centre, Canadian Climate Center)
               - Hurricanes (CMCC INGV/Italy, MPI/Germany, JAMSTEC/Japan, Hadley Centre/UK,
          SNU/South Korea)

•   Follow-on to US Working Group activities
      Drought Interest Group (DIG)
      DYNAMO

•   US CLIVAR benefits from:
     Global observation and modeling Panels for data and tools
     Regional/basin Panels for multilateral coordination
Thank You

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