li-jun_presentation_en by shuifanglj


									Energy efficiency and urban infrastructure as
       Chinese and Global challenges

                          Jun Li

          ‘Engaging China on Climate Change:
        Crossroads of 21st-century Foreign Policy’

                 Brussels, 2 February 2011
• Ambitious target for energy efficiency improvement
  in China’s 11th 5-year plan:20% reduction in GDP’s EI
  (over 150 bn US$ invested)
• November 2009: 40-45% carbon/GDP intensity
  reduction in 2020 relative to 2005
• “Low-carbon economy” has been adopted as a
  national strategy in the 12th five-year plan(2011-2015)
• During the 12th FYP, Chinese government is likely to
  impose binding targets on regions to achieve the 40-
  45 objective

        China 2050 LCE scenario

                                   Energy efficiency
                                  will be the largest
                                     contributor to
                                   carbon emissions
                                  reduction in China

Source: CCICED 2009
    Challenges in DCs: urban infrastructure
• Infrastructure development (buildings; transport;
  energy; water supply and sewage etc.) contributes to
  improving living condition ,quality of life and poverty
  reduction in developing world
• Urban infrastructure is capital-intensive with strong
  inertia and irreversibility; wrong decisions will result
  in long term carbon lock-in.
• Lack of technical, financial and institutional capacities
  in comprehensive governance of urban infrastructure
  in most DCs

  EE of urban infrastructure matter in China
• Rapid urbanisation                                1000000
  (China’s urban                                                 China
  population and will                               800000       India

                            Urban Pop (Thousands)
  double during 2000-                                            USA
  2030! )                                           600000       Western Europe

• Income rise will drive                                         Russia

  the demand for energy                             400000

• China’s 2009 stimulus
  package (586 bn$),                                     0
  nearly two thirds go to                                1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

  infrastructure and
                                      Large investment will need to be mobilised
• Buildings and transport             Incremental cumulative cost for China in IEA 450 ppm
  are the most important              scenario: $ 2100 billion (2008 dollar) over 2010-2030; of
  sectors for EE                      which half will be attributed to buildings and transport
       1. Buildings : an extremely dynamic sector :
           China builds a Japan in just 3 years
• More than 15 bn m2 will be built in the next 2 decades

• 60% of existing buildings today have been built since 1996

•60% of existing buildings in 2030 will be constructed after
Source: Liu 2009; World Bank

           Electricity demand in the buildings sector
                        increased rapidly
                     electricity demand growth 1990-2007


           600                                                    Industry

           200                                                    commercial


             1990   1995    2000      2004     2005        2007

Source: NBS 2008                                                                7
  An example of BEE in Beijing
• An apartment building with 160 households, total
  floor area: 37 700 m2 ; with 60 mm EPS+double
  glazed window

                                           Efficiency standards
                                           need to be updated

            2. Transport: a daunting challenge
 security of energy supply
    -    Half of oil consumption in China relies on imports (80% by 2030)
    -    Constant rise in oil price
    -    Transport accounts for 1/3 of national oil consumption in China
 Passenger vehicles could increase ten-fold in the next 25 years in China and
  transport oil consumption is expected to quadruple in 2030 relative to 2005.
 Air pollution: Emissions from motor vehicles have become the main source of air
   pollution in China’s large- and medium-sized cities (Ministry of Environment, 2010)
 GHG emissions in road transport in 2030 would increase 5 fold in the BAU to
  exceed the total emission in EU by 2025. Urban transport bears a significant
  share of the total transport energy use and GHG emissions.
 Empirical studies show extremely high income elasticity of vehicle ownership and
  fuel consumption in China (LR income elasticity is nearly 3!)
 appropriate policy instruments are needed to tackle the challenge in energy
  demand and emission control in urban transport sector

         Fast growing car market
• China is now the biggest car market in the world
   – 13.8m vehicles were sold in China in 2010
   – 2010: China has 90 times more cars than in 1990
   – 4m private cars in Beijing alone!
• CATs estimates a 6-fold increase in private car
  ownership in cities by 2030
• Ambitious targets of electrical vehicles: 1 million
  EC by 2020 (but total vehicle population in China
  would then stand at 260 m according to Wang et

             Main drivers of emissions in
                   Chinese cities

Source : World Bank 2009
Ways of reducing CO2 in urban transport
– Operational – improve fuel economy by reducing energy use
  and emissions per vehicle km (vkm) driven
– Strategic or TDM – optimisation of urban transport, ITS,
  reducing total vehicle km per passenger km (pkm) or per
  tonne km (tkm), through smart organisation of urban
  planning and transport infrastructure; land use-transport
  planning coordination in favour of mass transit
– Multi-modal urban public transport: BRT; metro; NMT (e.g.
  cycling, walking),
– Fuel switching : using alternative fuel ( CNG, biofuels, electric
  or hybrid cars, hydrogen?…)
– Econ instruments: e.g. car license auction in Shanghai,
  congestion charge in London&Singapore, carbon (fuel) tax…
– VCF for public transport (e.g. betterment tax in Hong Kong
  MRT financing)
                 3. Heating
• Heating area covers over 15 provinces; with 40%
  of Chinese population
• Urban heating in northern China (130 Mtce per
  year) accounts for one-fourth of building energy
  consumption in the nation, responsible for a
  significant proportion of GHGs and air pollutants
  (e.g. SOx,NOx…) emissions
• Energy efficiency improvement in buildings and
  DH contribute to energy security, air pollution
  reduction and climate change mitigation

                   Policy perspective
• Public policies to support local climate initiatives (5 provinces and
  8 cities have been selected in the ‘low carbon city pilot
  programme’ by the NDRC in 2010) and accelerate EE
  technological progress and penetration in urban infrastructure
• Establish citywise energy efficiency indicators in urban
  infrastructure and GHG emissions inventory to monitor the
  energy efficiency improvement in transparent MRV manner
• Gradually remove unnecessary energy subsidies to encourage
  investment in EE improvements , pricing reform and other fiscal
• Introducing sectoral approach in BEE in buildings, transport and
  DH sectors
• Enhance international (EU-China bilateral in particular)
  cooperation and joint venture capital with advanced countries in
  urban infrastructure decarbonisation R&DD


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