TO: Albany City Council VIA: Wes Hare, City Manager Diane Taniguchi-Dennis, P.E., Public Works Director Helen Burns Sharp, Community Development Director FROM: Jeni Richardson, P.E., Civil Engineer III Heather Hansen, Planner III DATE: March 23, 2007, for the March 12, 2007, City Council Work Session SUBJECT: Transportation System Plan Update – 2030 Land Use Alternatives Analysis STRATEGIC PLAN THEMES AND GOALS: Great Neighborhoods Action Requested: For Council information and review. Discussion: The purpose of this report is for Council to receive a draft summary of the document titled Memorandum #5 2030 Land Use Alternatives Analysis. Memorandum #5 is a look at how alternative land use patterns and growth not found in the current Comprehensive Plan might change future transportation deficiencies. Council should bring their TSP notebooks to the March 12th meeting when Memorandum #5 is hand-delivered. Following this meeting, Memorandum #5 will be delivered to other agencies including Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT), Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD), Linn County, Benton County, Albany Chamber of Commerce, and Albany-Millersburg Economic Development Corporation (AMEDC). Jeni Richardson is available to meet with Council and community members to provide more information or clarification or to receive input or comments. Staff plans to return on April 9, 2007, to inform Council of the input received, make changes as directed, and to seek Council’s acceptance of Memorandum #5 2030 Land Use Alternatives Analysis signalizing approval for staff to begin seeking transportation solutions. Summary of Memorandum #5 Findings Background On January 22nd, Council accepted Memorandum #4 of the Transportation System Plan (TSP) update. Memorandum #4 identified the transportation problems we would see in 2030 if household and employment growth occurred, but no new roads were built. The Comprehensive Plan map guided our decisions to place houses and jobs in each of 500 transportation analysis zones (TAZ) located inside the urban growth boundary (UGB). Benton County, Linn County, and Millersburg staff used their respective land use planning documents to populate the TAZs outside the UGB. Albany’s Comprehensive Plan map is based on a 20-year timeframe based on coordinated population projections to 2020. The population and employment projections were extrapolated to 2030 for the TSP. Albany City Council Page 2 March 23, 2007, for the March 12, 2007, City Council Work Session Before we look at transportation solutions to handle 2030 growth, we are required (by the Transportation Planning Rule) to take a closer look at how we allocated growth and to consider other scenarios. Some of the questions we asked ourselves and folded into land use scenarios include: • How will Millersburg’s growth trend the transportation system if actual growth exceeds their 2030 prediction? • How will a school and a hospital or another type of medical facility in East Albany impact the transportation system? Will there be a shift in current and future employees from the current hospital to the east side? • How would the housing and employment mix shown in the latest draft Oak Creek Refinement Plan change the transportation analysis? • Is it reasonable to assume that as congestion increases on the bridges across the Willamette River, growth will naturally slow in North Albany and shift to the relatively uncongested areas around Oak Creek? • How would a UGB expansion to include industrial land to the south impact the transportation facilities? • Are there other model assumptions in the Comprehensive Plan run (Memorandum #4) that we should revise? Findings: The purpose of this detailed land use review is to make sure that we are working with the best available information for 2030 and the one on which we want to model roadway improvement alternatives. Actual land use is impossible to predict but we need to make our best guess to avoid the need to later remodel transportation alternatives. We modeled each of these scenarios and concluded that land use alternatives can not fix Albany’s future transportation system problems. In fact, the change in demand to capacity ratios (D/C) for each of the alternatives was so minor that roadway problems remained essentially the same. If a demand is greater than a capacity (i.e. D/C ratio is greater than 1), then traffic won’t move. Our findings including the critical D/C ratios for each scenario follow. Millersburg: How will Millersburg’s rapid growth impact the transportation system if actual growth exceeds their 2030 prediction? In this analysis, we projected Millersburg’s recent growth surge to 2030 and estimated that if this trend continued, there could be an additional 785 houses and 520 employees beyond the original 2030 prediction. We found that this additional growth would have a minor negative affect on facilities in Albany that are already projected to have capacity constraints in 2030. The affected roadways are near the Mall and at the Knox Butte interchange. The incremental impact wasn’t large, but it was added to facilities already in trouble. We know that Albany’s adopted TSP project list has to be based on adopted planning documents and this projection would exceed Millersburg’s population and employment allocation. This analysis provided important information, but cannot be used in our most likely 2030 land use scenario because it is not in our sphere of influence. Roadway Original D/C D/C for this scenario Knox Butte Interchange 0.98 1.00 14th Avenue (near the Mall) 1.14 1.29 Waverly Drive (near the Mall) 1.28 1.29 DATA:Shared:Graphics:Public Works:Transportation:cws1_TSP Land Use Alts.doc Albany City Council Page 3 March 23, 2007, for the March 12, 2007, City Council Work Session East Albany: How will a school and a hospital or another type of medical facility in East Albany impact the transportation system? Will there be a shift in current and future employees from the current hospital to the east side? It seems like a school in East Albany will happen and its size and location are pretty well set. Although Samaritan Health Services owns land in East Albany and has discussed development options, the type of facility, its location and timing, and even its eventuality are unknown. For this scenario, we refined the model to include the future school and associated employees based on our best information. We also assumed that a medical facility of some type would locate on parcels owned by Samaritan Health Services and concluded for the time being, that if it isn’t a medical facility, another significant traffic generator would probably locate in East Albany. In our best guess scenario, we thought that the 2030 allocations should be increased to include an additional 646 employees on the east side. In order to add some balance to the total number of employees within the UGB in 2030, we assumed that the type of medical facility at the existing hospital site might change and assumed a downward shift of 400 employees off the original 2030 projection. We found that the increased employment east of I-5 creates more travel demand in the area especially along US 20, Goldfish Farm Road, Knox Butte and the Knox Butte interchange, but each of these facilities remain slightly below the available capacity. As expected, there was a slight decrease in demand on roads near the hospital due to the downward shift in projected future employment and a slight benefit is seen on Elm, 9t, and parts of Washington and 2nd. Roadway Original D/C D/C for this scenario US 20 0.47 0.54 Goldfish Farm Road 0.42 0.70 Knox Butte 1.11 1.14 Knox Butte Interchange 0.98 1.00 Elm Street 0.50 0.37 South Albany: How would the housing and employment mix shown in the latest draft Oak Creek Refinement Plan change the transportation analysis? The most recent version of the Oak Creek Refinement Plan has been viewed by the public and may still undergo some revisions before it is adopted. The concept of planning for a mosaic of land uses in this area seems to be sound and any spatial rearrangement would not substantially change the transportation impacts. In our best guess scenario, we modified the 2030 projected land uses based on current information and added an additional 372 employees and 224 households to our original 2030 projection to take some pressure off North Albany. We found that the increased travel demands are accommodated well in South Albany, with the exception being Waverly Drive where an already overcapacity road is further impacted. Roadway Original D/C D/C for this scenario Hwy 99E 0.72 0.71 Ellingson Rd 0.60 0.63 Waverly Dr 0.86 to 0.97 0.88 to 1.00 North Albany: Is it reasonable to assume that as congestion increases on the bridges across the Willamette River, growth will naturally slow in North Albany and shift to the relatively uncongested areas around Oak Creek? This question was asked because the 2030 model shows that North Albany Road, Springhill Drive, and the Willamette River bridges are overcapacity. Some of the increase in future demand on the Willamette River bridges is from commuters or pass-through trips not related to North DATA:Shared:Graphics:Public Works:Transportation:cws1_TSP Land Use Alts.doc Albany City Council Page 4 March 23, 2007, for the March 12, 2007, City Council Work Session Albany’s growth and out of our sphere of influence. Two model runs were developed to explore whether slowing growth in North Albany would lessen the capacity issue over the Willamette River. Our first model run looked at the largest reduction in North Albany households both in and out of the UGB that seemed reasonable to see if it reduced the demand on these overcapacity roads. We assumed that development that is “in the works” (at or passed the tentative plat approval stage) would occur and allowed for some additional development before 2030. This resulted in a household reduction of 335 (235 inside the UGB and 100 outside). We also added an additional 100 neighborhood retail and service jobs over the original 2030 projection to a Mixed Use Commercial area west of North Albany Road. There was a positive but not significant benefit to the overcapacity roads and bridges and they remained overcapacity. This information leads us to believe that policy-driven or naturally occurring development restrictions in North Albany will not solve the capacity issues on the Willamette River bridges. Our next model run retained the 100 jobs, but reduced households by only 145, an amount that might be realistic based on natural slowing due to congestion. This represents our best guess scenario and resulted in a minor benefit to the overcapacity roads. Roadway Original D/C with policy D/C with natural D/C household reduction household reduction Springhill Dr 1.15 1.13 1.14 US 20 (west city limits to 1.09 1.08 1.08 Willamette River) Lyon St Bridge 1.23 1.18 1.21 Outside the UGB: How would a UGB expansion to include industrial land to the south impact the transportation facilities? In this analysis, we looked at the transportation impact of adding 500 future industrial jobs to an area south of the Albany urban growth boundary (UGB). When we looked at this hypothetical UGB expansion of about 250 acres, we found that the increased travel demands are accommodated well in South Albany, with the exception being Waverly Drive where an already overcapacity road is further impacted. This analysis provided important information, but cannot be used in our most likely 2030 land use scenario because it is not in our sphere of influence. Roadway Original D/C D/C for this scenario Hwy 99E 0.72 0.71 Ellingson Rd 0.60 0.63 Waverly Dr 0.86 to 0.97 0.88 to 1.00 Other Revisions: Are there other model assumptions in the Comprehensive Plan run (Memorandum #4) that we should revise? As we were working on the land use alternatives, we found a couple of small errors in the original 2030 model that need to be corrected. The first correction was to adjust the location of and number of residents at group quarter (nursing homes, homeless shelters, correction facilities, etc) facilities based on the best available information. The second correction was to decrease the average persons per household (APPH) for those projected households with an APPH greater than 2.4. The area wide AAPH was 2.4 in the base model and it is expected to trend downward over the next 20 years. DATA:Shared:Graphics:Public Works:Transportation:cws1_TSP Land Use Alts.doc Albany City Council Page 5 March 23, 2007, for the March 12, 2007, City Council Work Session Recommendation: The purpose of this analysis is to take the Comprehensive Plan’s population and employment projections and apply what is currently going on in the community to develop the most likely land use scenario. The outcome is a land use base map that we will use to evaluate transportation solutions. Staff’s recommendation on the mix of land uses that seem to represent the most likely scenario for growth in 2030 includes: • Employment for a school and a medical facility in East Albany and minor reduction in employee growth at the existing hospital, • Refined growth predictions in south Albany to reflect the latest Oak Creek Refinement Plan, • A minor reduction in future houses in North Albany and a minor increase in jobs, and • An adjustment to the location of and number of residents at group quarter facilities and the average persons per household for projected households with an APPH greater than 2.4. The recommended household and employee adjustments from the original 2030 projections are shown by regional area on the map in Attachment A. How the Land Use Alternative Step fits into the rest of the TSP Update Project The transportation deficiencies identified in Memorandum #4 and any potential modifications that come out of the land use alternative scenarios will establish the basis for developing transportation solutions. Following are the next steps in the TSP analysis: Step 1 – Big Picture Transportation Solutions: The first transportation solutions modeled will be the large individual infrastructure components previously discussed including an I-5 overpass, I-5 interchange, and a bridge over the Willamette River. This information is scheduled for Council and community review in May 2007. Step 2 – Detailed Transportation Solutions: Continued evaluation will include improvements to roadway corridor and intersections and to the bike, pedestrian, and transit systems. The existing Airport Master Plan will be adopted by reference. The rail component of the TSP will be limited to solutions to identified safety and delay factors unless a separate comprehensive review of rail system operations is undertaken. This information is scheduled for Council and community review at several meetings during August, September, and October. Step 3 – Preferred Alternatives, Priorities and 10-year Plan: Develop a map and a prioritized list of the preferred transportation projects with planning level costs. This step is scheduled for completion in December 2007. Step 4 – Financial Plan: The financial plan will follow the identification of transportation solutions and will include expenses associated with the TSP project list and a forecast of future annual maintenance costs. The financial plan will seek to balance these expenses with projected revenues from existing and identified potential new sources. A new SDC methodology will also be developed at this time. This step is scheduled for completion by June 2008. DATA:Shared:Graphics:Public Works:Transportation:cws1_TSP Land Use Alts.doc Albany City Council Page 6 March 23, 2007, for the March 12, 2007, City Council Work Session Project Update We are moving forward on the TSP Update on many fronts. We have either finished or are working on the following tasks: • Staff began mapping and prioritizing street maintenance projects on all roads including local streets. This information will be incorporated into the Financial Plan (in process). • The City continues to have on-going conversations with ODOT and other agencies about collaborating on rail, freeway interchanges, regional corridors, the 53rd/Ellingson connection, and other regionally significant transportation issues. • The City of Albany will host two open house meetings in March to give the public a look at Albany’s changing transportation system. Those who attend can come and go as they please during that time. City staff will give a brief presentation at the beginning of each hour, leaving plenty of time for visitors to look at maps and other displays, to ask questions, and to provide suggestions. Meetings will be on: o Thursday, March 15, 2007, from 4:00 to 7:00 p.m. in the Council Chambers at City Hall, 333 Broadalbin Street SW o Thursday, March 22 2007, from 4:00 to 7:00 p.m. in the cafeteria at North Albany Middle School, 1205 North Albany Road NW. • Staff is taking the transportation message to 4th and 5th grade students at Central School and North Albany Elementary School. If possible, a few students from each class will be encouraged to bring their maps to the Open House(s). During the week of each Open House, staff will: o Use maps to talk about where students live, where they like to go, and how they get there. o Use historic maps to talk about the changing transportation system and modes of travel over the years as a means to talk about what the system will look like in 2030. o Include a fun, hands-on activity to encourage additional thoughts about roadways. Budget Impact: There is no direct budget impact to approving this memorandum. This project is funded with Street Capital Funds. JEN:kw Attachments c: Oregon Department of Transportation Department of Land Conservation and Development Linn County Benton County Albany Chamber of Commerce Albany-Millersburg Economic Development Corporation DATA:Shared:Graphics:Public Works:Transportation:cws1_TSP Land Use Alts.doc ATTACHMENT A 2030 Most Likely Land Use Scenario Land Use Changes by District vs. Comprehensive Plan This is a refinement on the Comprehensive Plan based on the most likely growth patterns in the community for 2030.