Bangladesh by wpr1947

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									                                                                                             Food Security Information for Decision Making
            European Union                                                                                                                                www.foodsec.org

Price Monitoring and Analysis Country Brief                                                                                                                Bangladesh
                                                                                                                                                         September-December 2010

Key Messages
     Prices of food in Bangladesh went up in the last few months. Rice and wheat prices were 15-17% higher than international
     prices.
     The country is not faced with political crisis; food security is mainly affected by chronic poverty.
     Agencies estimate high levels of food insecurity which could worsen due to high food prices in local markets.
     The Government has in place several safety net schemes to support the population especially the ultra poor in accessing
     food.

Background
In Bangladesh the total population is estimated to reach about 162 million with an annual growth rate of 1%. Although the rural population
is 72%, the agricultural value addedd to GDP is around 18%. The proportion of undernourishment is 27%.

                             Economic Indicators                           View Data                                  Food Consumption
Total Population (millions) - 2009 (WB)                                    162.221     Undernourished Population - 2005/2007 (FAO)                                               27%
Population growth rate - 2009 (WB)                                           1%        Cereal share in total dietary energy consumption - 2007 (FAO)                             78%
GNI per capita, $ PPP - 2009 (WB)                                           1550       Meat share in total dietary energy consumption                                             n.a.
Population below 1$ PPP per day - 2005 (MDGI)                               49%
                                                                                                                         Health Indicators
Rural population - 2009 (WB)                                                72%        Pop. with sustainable access to improved sanitation - 2008 (WHO)                          53%
Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) - 2009 (WB)                             18%
                                                                                       Life expectancy at birth (years) both sexes - 2008 (WHO)                                   65
                                                                                       Pop. with access to improved drinking water sources - 2008 (WHO)                          80%
   Prices                                                                              Prevalence of HIV among adults aged >= 15 years - 2009 (WHO)                              0.05%

In Dhaka, rice prices have gradually risen since September
(32.83 Taka/kg) and in December 2010 prices were 6% up at
34.93 Taka/Kg. National average prices of rice, after increasing                            Food Security Situation Assessment
from August (28.95) to September (31.36 Taka/Kg) remained                              WFP extended its current Bangladesh Country Programme for
almost stable through December. Wheat prices registered a                              one year to provide support to 2.1 million hungry, vulnerable
dramatic increase of 20% from August (22.95 Taka/Kg) to                                and malnourished people and to improve the food security of
September (27.63) and then stabilized in the following months.                         ultra-poor households until the end of 2011. FAO estimates
In December in Dhaka, wheat retail prices (383.65 USD/T)                               moderately high undernourishment and IFPRI warns of an
were 17% higher than the international price of US Wheat (No2                          alarming situation of hunger.
Hard Red Winter). Rice prices were some 15% above the price
of Rice Thai A1 Super sold on the international market (422.25
                                                                                       CURRENT EMERGENCY ASSESMENT
USD/T) in November.

                                                                                       Exceptional shortfall Widespread lack of               Severe localized            FAO/GIEWS
                                                                                       in aggregate food     access                           food insecurity             CPFS 2010
                                                                                       production supplies

                                                                                       Bangladesh is not covered by FEWSNET.                                                FEWSNET

                                                                                       SCALE OF HUNGER (% of Undernourishment)



                                                                                       Very high       High             Moderately    Moderately          Very low         FAO
                                                                                       (>= 35%)        (25-34%)         high (15-24%) low (5-14%)         (< 5% under.) Hunger Map

                                                                                       FAO Hunger Map classifies all countries of the world into five based on % of population
                                                                                       undernourished.



                                                                                       Extremely       Alarming         Serious          Moderate         Low              IFPRI/2010
                                                                                       alarming                                                                               GHI




         Source: GIEWS National basic food prices data and analysis tool
                                                                                                          Food Security Information for Decision Making
              European Union                                                                                                                                         www.foodsec.org

                                                                                                                                                                          Bangladesh
    Vegetation Condition                                                                                Food Balance Sheet
Normal to very good vegetation conditions are observed for the                                     The 2010 paddy production is forecast to expand to 50.25 mln
major part of the country. The general indicator of vegetation                                     tonnes, 3% above the 2009 level. Despite the good prospects
condition provided below is the relative difference between the                                    for the season, the Gvmt has been very active in the
NDVI for December 2010 and the average of the last 10 years,                                       international market, recently contracting 100,000 tonnes of rice
calculated on the agricultural zones derived from the                                              from Viet Nam and negotiating the supply of 500,000 tonnes of
GLOBCOVER 2005 database (ESA).                                                                     wheat and rice from India. Aggregate 2010 cereal imports are
                                                                                                   currently expected to reach 4.0 mln tonnes.




Source: JRC MARS – FoodSec                                                                                Source: GIEWS Country Briefs

Crop phase in the reference period                                                                      Government Policies
    Sowing         Wheat - Rice (Boro) - Potatoes
                                                                                                   Gvmt is not planning to procure Aman rice from farmers,
   Growing         No crops are growing during the reference period                                instead, to maintain stocks it will increase commercial imports.
  Harvesting       Rice (Aman) - Sorghum                                                           Fair price cardholders program was resumed for 1.12 mln
                                                                                                   targeted low income people. To offset the food price rise, it has
    Natural Disasters, Drought and Conflicts                                                       distributed food grain through its Public Food Distribution
The political situation is not critical and the country is slowly                                  System/PFDS and plans to distribute 2.73 mlnT in 2010-11.
recovering from the Cyclone Aila which caused extensive
                                                                                                    Consumer and market oriented                    Maintain stocks.
losses and damages devastating 11 coastal districts in                                              measures
Bangladesh in May 2009.                                                                             Producer oriented measures                      n.a.
 Refugees and IDPs                           2007                2008                2009           Trade policy measures                           n.a.
 Total in the country                        27626              28392              228586           Safety net (increased or introduced)            Open Market Sale (OMS); Vulnerable
 Total outside the country                   17580              16809               12258                                                           Group Development (VGD);
                                                                                                                                                    Vulnerable Group Feeding (VGF);
Source: UNHCR Statistical Online Population Database, United Nations High Commissioner for                                                          Gratuitous Relief (GR) and EP.
Refugees (UNHCR), Data extracted on 01/12/2010.
                                                                                                    Different sources

 Disaster Type (last year)                   Date             Location               Alert
 Earthquake                              2010-09-10           Chittagong              1/3           Current events to watch                  (Click to see the full report)

 Earthquake                              2009-02-22             Khulna                1/3           Understanding the Real Costs of the Food Crisis
                                                                                                    Bangladesh: Cold Wave DREF operation n° MDRBD008 - Upd...
 Flood                                   2010-10-01        Brahmanbaria               2/3
                                                                                                    PM announces new maternal, newborn and children health...
                                                              District
                                                                                                    THAILAND: Concern over Rohingya boat people
Source: Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System - 3 = 1000 or more people killed or 800000    Bangladesh: Situation Report no. 205 - Cold Wave
or more people displaced. 2 = 100 or more people killed or 80000 or more displaced.
                                                                                                    For more information, contact: Information-for-action@fao.org
                                                                                                    Website: www.foodsec.org
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