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MEMORANDOM TO REEVES CAMPAIGN LEADERSHIP FROM: WES ANDERSON DATE: 7/5/11 RE: ANALYSIS OF STATEWIDE SURVEY FINDINGS The following Mississippi statewide survey was conducted by OnMessage Inc. Telephone interviews were conducted June 29-‐30, 2011. This survey consisted of 500 likely Republican primary election voters statewide. The survey was stratified by county to reflect historic voter turnout trends. The margin of error for this survey is +/-‐ 4.4%. Political Environment • Republican primary voters believe the state of Mississippi is headed in the right direction (70% RD, 16% WT). • The economy remains the most important issue on the minds of the voters at 51% followed by government spending (13%), education (11%), social issues (6%), and health care (3%). Image Testing • State Treasurer Tate Reeves is viewed favorably by 60% of the primary electorate and only 5% hold an unfavorable view. This represents a net favorable increase of 7% since April of this year. • Billy Hewes is viewed favorably by only 26% of the primary electorate and 13% have an unfavorable view. This represents a net favorable decrease of 1% since April of this year. Ballot Test • Reeves garners 56% of the vote against Hewes (56% Reeves, 16% Hewes, 28% undecided). • Reeves leads in every media market with a high water mark in the Jackson market, the largest in the state, with 68% of the primary electorate. • Hewes’ decision to hold off advertising in his home market of Biloxi until just recently has allowed Reeves to make significant gains in an area critical to Hewes. The ballot currently stands at 35% Reeves to 34% Hewes in the Biloxi market. Job Approval • The primary electorate likes the job that Reeves is currently doing as State Treasurer. 74% of the primary electorate approve of his job while only 5% disapprove. This is a massive advantage going into a primary election. Ad Recall • When asked if the electorate has seen ads by Reeves or Hewes, 59% have seen an ad about Reeves and only 34% have seen an ad about Hewes. • The key here is that of the people who have seen a Reeves ad, 52% would be more likely to vote for Reeves. And of the people who have seen a Hewes ad, only 26% would be more likely to vote for Hewes, while 28% would be less likely. The empirical evidence clearly demonstrates the effectiveness of Reeves’ message while Hewes’ ads have failed to sway the voters. CONCLUSION State Treasurer Tate Reeves enjoys strong support among the electorate and high job approval. The bulk of the primary voters know and like Reeves. On the other hand, State Senator Hewes has failed to significantly increase his name ID or ballot position. As a result Reeves heads into the home stretch with a substantial lead and is likely to win the Republican primary for Lt. Governor.
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