Reeves polling memo

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MEMORANDOM	
  TO	
  REEVES	
  CAMPAIGN	
  LEADERSHIP	
  

FROM:	
                        WES	
  ANDERSON	
  

DATE:	
  	
                    7/5/11	
  

RE:	
         	
               ANALYSIS	
  OF	
  STATEWIDE	
  SURVEY	
  FINDINGS	
  
	
  

The	
  following	
  Mississippi	
  statewide	
  survey	
  was	
  conducted	
  by	
  OnMessage	
  Inc.	
  	
  Telephone	
  interviews	
  
were	
  conducted	
  June	
  29-­‐30,	
  2011.	
  	
  This	
  survey	
  consisted	
  of	
  500	
  likely	
  Republican	
  primary	
  election	
  
voters	
  statewide.	
  	
  The	
  survey	
  was	
  stratified	
  by	
  county	
  to	
  reflect	
  historic	
  voter	
  turnout	
  trends.	
  The	
  
margin	
  of	
  error	
  for	
  this	
  survey	
  is	
  +/-­‐	
  4.4%.	
  

Political	
  Environment	
  

•      Republican	
  primary	
  voters	
  believe	
  the	
  state	
  of	
  Mississippi	
  is	
  headed	
  in	
  the	
  right	
  direction	
  (70%	
  RD,	
  
       16%	
  WT).	
  
•      The	
  economy	
  remains	
  the	
  most	
  important	
  issue	
  on	
  the	
  minds	
  of	
  the	
  voters	
  at	
  51%	
  followed	
  by	
  
       government	
  spending	
  (13%),	
  education	
  (11%),	
  social	
  issues	
  (6%),	
  and	
  health	
  care	
  (3%).	
  

Image	
  Testing	
  

          •          State	
  Treasurer	
  Tate	
  Reeves	
  is	
  viewed	
  favorably	
  by	
  60%	
  of	
  the	
  primary	
  electorate	
  and	
  only	
  5%	
  
                     hold	
  an	
  unfavorable	
  view.	
  	
  This	
  represents	
  a	
  net	
  favorable	
  increase	
  of	
  7%	
  since	
  April	
  of	
  this	
  
                     year.	
  
          •          Billy	
  Hewes	
  is	
  viewed	
  favorably	
  by	
  only	
  26%	
  of	
  the	
  primary	
  electorate	
  and	
  13%	
  have	
  an	
  
                     unfavorable	
  view.	
  	
  This	
  represents	
  a	
  net	
  favorable	
  decrease	
  of	
  1%	
  since	
  April	
  of	
  this	
  year.	
  	
  	
  

Ballot	
  Test	
  

          •          Reeves	
  garners	
  56%	
  of	
  the	
  vote	
  against	
  Hewes	
  (56%	
  Reeves,	
  16%	
  Hewes,	
  28%	
  undecided).	
  	
  	
  
          •          Reeves	
  leads	
  in	
  every	
  media	
  market	
  with	
  a	
  high	
  water	
  mark	
  in	
  the	
  Jackson	
  market,	
  the	
  largest	
  
                     in	
  the	
  state,	
  with	
  68%	
  of	
  the	
  primary	
  electorate.	
  
           •     Hewes’	
  decision	
  to	
  hold	
  off	
  advertising	
  in	
  his	
  home	
  market	
  of	
  Biloxi	
  until	
  just	
  recently	
  has	
  
                 allowed	
  Reeves	
  to	
  make	
  significant	
  gains	
  in	
  an	
  area	
  critical	
  to	
  Hewes.	
  	
  The	
  ballot	
  currently	
  
                 stands	
  at	
  35%	
  Reeves	
  to	
  34%	
  Hewes	
  in	
  the	
  Biloxi	
  market.	
  	
  	
  
                 	
  

Job	
  Approval	
  

       •       The	
  primary	
  electorate	
  likes	
  the	
  job	
  that	
  Reeves	
  is	
  currently	
  doing	
  as	
  State	
  Treasurer.	
  	
  74%	
  of	
  
               the	
  primary	
  electorate	
  approve	
  of	
  his	
  job	
  while	
  only	
  5%	
  disapprove.	
  	
  This	
  is	
  a	
  massive	
  advantage	
  
               going	
  into	
  a	
  primary	
  election.	
  

Ad	
  Recall	
  

       •       When	
  asked	
  if	
  the	
  electorate	
  has	
  seen	
  ads	
  by	
  Reeves	
  or	
  Hewes,	
  59%	
  have	
  seen	
  an	
  ad	
  about	
  
               Reeves	
  and	
  only	
  34%	
  have	
  seen	
  an	
  ad	
  about	
  Hewes.	
  
       •       The	
  key	
  here	
  is	
  that	
  of	
  the	
  people	
  who	
  have	
  seen	
  a	
  Reeves	
  ad,	
  52%	
  would	
  be	
  more	
  likely	
  to	
  vote	
  
               for	
  Reeves.	
  	
  And	
  of	
  the	
  people	
  who	
  have	
  seen	
  a	
  Hewes	
  ad,	
  only	
  26%	
  would	
  be	
  more	
  likely	
  to	
  
               vote	
  for	
  Hewes,	
  while	
  28%	
  would	
  be	
  less	
  likely.	
  	
  The	
  empirical	
  evidence	
  clearly	
  demonstrates	
  the	
  
               effectiveness	
  of	
  Reeves’	
  message	
  while	
  Hewes’	
  ads	
  have	
  failed	
  to	
  sway	
  the	
  voters.	
  
               	
  

CONCLUSION	
  

State	
  Treasurer	
  Tate	
  Reeves	
  enjoys	
  strong	
  support	
  among	
  the	
  electorate	
  and	
  high	
  job	
  approval.	
  	
  The	
  
bulk	
  of	
  the	
  primary	
  voters	
  know	
  and	
  like	
  Reeves.	
  	
  On	
  the	
  other	
  hand,	
  State	
  Senator	
  Hewes	
  has	
  failed	
  to	
  
significantly	
  increase	
  his	
  name	
  ID	
  or	
  ballot	
  position.	
  	
  As	
  a	
  result	
  Reeves	
  heads	
  into	
  the	
  home	
  stretch	
  with	
  
a	
  substantial	
  lead	
  and	
  is	
  likely	
  to	
  win	
  the	
  Republican	
  primary	
  for	
  Lt.	
  Governor.	
  	
  	
  

	
  

				
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posted:7/6/2011
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